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点石成金者
03-14
不看好
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2023-05-25
真是恶作
理想内部资料对比蔚来
点石成金者
2023-04-26
对
My Nio Stock Price Target for 2025
点石成金者
2022-12-28
$蔚来(NIO)$
点石成金者
2022-12-22
$蔚来(NIO)$
点石成金者
2022-12-19
$蔚来(NIO)$
点石成金者
2022-12-17
$蔚来(NIO)$
点石成金者
2022-12-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
点石成金者
2022-04-09
哎哟喂
受疫情影响,蔚来整车生产已经暂停
点石成金者
2021-12-06
太棒了👏👏👏
2022年上半年,蔚来NT1. 0平台车型的车机底层智能硬件升级将正式启动
点石成金者
2021-12-01
小城市小鹏挺多的,北京上海还是蔚来和特斯拉的天下
小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)盘前涨超4% 11月交付15,613辆车 同比增270%
点石成金者
2021-12-01
穷苦大众 电动汽车的标配
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2021-08-22
林某家属 开始目的不纯了,是否和作空机构联合炒作 做空股票?
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2021-06-19
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2021-05-25
写得乱七八糟的小报记者
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2021-04-23
想拿到别人割的便宜筹码吧 这样赤裸裸的忽悠看空
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2020-11-09
谁雇了你这傻黑子 公司都能张冠李戴
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2020-11-09
读了点书 看不懂趋势 傻傻的评论者
树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能
点石成金者
2020-11-07
绝对值
抱歉,原内容已删除
点石成金者
2020-10-30
难怪你只能当记者
比亚迪vs蔚来哪只更应买入?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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10:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"理想内部资料对比蔚来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338713151","media":"虎嗅","summary":"理想内部资料对比蔚来。据奇点财经,近日,在社交平台上,网友某智能车博士研究员曝光了理想内部为了应对蔚来新车的内部培训资料。资料显示,理想在《竞品对比培训理想L7vs蔚来ES6》的培训考题中,内容涉及蔚来相关车型的舒适配置、智能驾驶、续航等方面。曝光的聊天截图显示,对于朋友圈发布的理想与蔚来对比图,某位理想员工称,“本来不想发的,公司要抽经检。”网友还在评论区表示:“es6还没发布,理想的营销端就已经提前准备好所有的黑点准备攻击了理想真的疯狂针对蔚来,各个基层销售贴脸黑蔚来。”","content":"<html><body><article><p>理想内部资料对比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>。</p><p>据奇点财经,近日,在社交平台上,网友某<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>车博士研究员曝光了理想内部为了应对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>新车的内部培训资料。资料显示,理想在《竞品对比培训理想L7vs蔚来ES6》的培训考题中,内容涉及蔚来相关车型的舒适配置、智能驾驶、续航等方面。</p><p>曝光的聊天截图显示,对于朋友圈发布的理想与蔚来对比图,某位理想员工称,“本来不想发的,公司要抽经检。”</p><p>网友还在评论区表示:“es6还没发布,理想的营销端就已经提前准备好所有的黑点准备攻击了理想真的疯狂针对蔚来,各个基层销售贴脸黑蔚来。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n理想内部资料对比蔚来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-25 10:27 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023052510272382cbc4f2&s=b><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>理想内部资料对比蔚来。据奇点财经,近日,在社交平台上,网友某智能车博士研究员曝光了理想内部为了应对蔚来新车的内部培训资料。资料显示,理想在《竞品对比培训理想L7vs蔚来ES6》的培训考题中,内容涉及蔚来相关车型的舒适配置、智能驾驶、续航等方面。曝光的聊天截图显示,对于朋友圈发布的理想与蔚来对比图,某位理想员工称,“本来不想发的,公司要抽经检。”网友还在评论区表示:“es6还没发布,理想的营销端就...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023052510272382cbc4f2&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023052510272382cbc4f2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2338713151","content_text":"理想内部资料对比蔚来。据奇点财经,近日,在社交平台上,网友某智能车博士研究员曝光了理想内部为了应对蔚来新车的内部培训资料。资料显示,理想在《竞品对比培训理想L7vs蔚来ES6》的培训考题中,内容涉及蔚来相关车型的舒适配置、智能驾驶、续航等方面。曝光的聊天截图显示,对于朋友圈发布的理想与蔚来对比图,某位理想员工称,“本来不想发的,公司要抽经检。”网友还在评论区表示:“es6还没发布,理想的营销端就已经提前准备好所有的黑点准备攻击了理想真的疯狂针对蔚来,各个基层销售贴脸黑蔚来。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":658183999,"gmtCreate":1682476331312,"gmtModify":1682476332813,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对","listText":"对","text":"对","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658183999","repostId":"2330031877","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2330031877","pubTimestamp":1682437372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2330031877?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-25 23:42","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"My Nio Stock Price Target for 2025","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2330031877","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nio’s (NIO) competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market is heating up and the company lacks stro","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Nio’s </strong>(<span><strong><u>NIO</u></strong></span>) competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market is heating up and the company lacks strong competitive advantages.</li>\n<li>The EV maker also showed disappointing delivery figures for March.</li>\n<li>NIO stock likely won’t outperform the market over the long term.</li>\n</ul>\n</div>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div><img height=\"900\" src=\"https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/nio1600.png\" width=\"1600\"/><div>Source: Robert Way / Shutterstock.com</div></div>\n<p><strong>Nio </strong>(NYSE:<span><strong><u>NIO</u></strong></span>) is facing rapidly increasing competition. Meanwhile, the company’s margins are also being pressured by an accelerating price war in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market. But that’s not all. Nio’s addressable market is quite limited and the firm lacks strong competitive advantages. Given all of these points, I believe investors are best off unloading their NIO stock while they still can.</p>\n<p>Looking forward, I don’t expect shares of this EV maker to outperform the market over the next two years. So, what can investors expect? Let’s take a look at why investors should consider avoiding Nio — and what NIO stock may look like by 2025.</p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div></div>\n<div></div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<h2>NIO Stock: Increasing Competition and Price Wars</h2>\n<p>First off, it’s clear that Nio is facing increasing competition. Just this month at the Shanghai Auto Show, <strong>Nissan </strong>(OTCMKTS:<span><strong><u>NSANY</u></strong></span>) unveiled a new electric SUV called the Arizon. Other automakers like <strong>Volkswagen</strong> (OTCMKTS:<span><strong><u>VWAGY</u></strong></span>), <strong>Mercedes Benz</strong> (OTCMKTS:<span><strong><u>MBGYY</u></strong></span>) and <strong>BYD</strong> (OTCMKTS:<span><strong><span><strong><u><span><strong><u>BYDDY</u></strong></span></u></strong></span></strong></span>) also debuted EVs at the show. Given its very strong position in China, BYD’s new vehicles — from the Seagull to the Yangwang U9 supercar — could be especially problematic for China-based Nio.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>Tesla </strong>(NASDAQ:<span><strong><u>TSLA</u></strong></span>) has cut the prices of its higher-end EVs by between 16% and 23% since the beginning of the year. Those price reductions will likely pressure Nio’s vehicle sales. That’s especially true because the Chinese EV maker reportedly plans to refrain from reducing its own prices.</p>\n<p>Of course, Nio’s reluctance to reduce prices is understandable. The company’s gross margin sank to just 10% in 2022, down from 18% in 2021.</p>\n<h2>A Lack of Strong Competitive Advantages</h2>\n<p>In the past, I have been upbeat about Nio’s innovative battery-swapping system, which allows drivers to quickly exchange their used batteries for fully charged ones. But now that Tesla’s Superchargers in China allow drivers to add 250 kilometers of range in 15 minutes, I’m not sure that Nio’s battery-swap program gives the EV maker much of an advantage.</p>\n<p>Moreover, another one of Nio’s competitors, China-based EV startup <strong>Li Auto </strong>(NASDAQ:<span><strong><u>LI</u></strong></span>), is reportedly launching an “800-volt fast-charging system” that will enable its vehicles “to get 400 kilometers (roughly 250 miles) of range on a 10-minute charge.” Also worth mentioning is the fact that Li’s hybrid vehicles use gas to charge and extend the range of their batteries. As a result, Li drivers don’t have to worry as much about “range anxiety” as Nio drivers potentially do.</p>\n<p>Finally, on the autonomous driving front, Nio reportedly offers Level 2. However, Mercedes was able to bring Level 3 autonomy to the U.S. this year. Meanwhile, China-based competitor <strong>Xpeng</strong> (NYSE:<span><strong><u>XPEV</u></strong></span>) is apparently “close to Level 3” and “could be ‘three years ahead of competitors.'”</p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div></div>\n<div></div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<h2>Discouraging Stats and an Uninspiring Outlook</h2>\n<p>Unlike many other China-based EV makers whose sales rose in March versus February, Nio’s deliveries dropped almost 15% during the same period. The company is also lacking on the profitability side; operating income sank to -$2.27 billion last year from -$707 million in 2021.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, analysts on average expect Nio to continue to lose money through 2025. The mean estimate calls for the company’s EPS to fall to -$1.02 this year followed by -30 cents in 2024 and -3 cents in 2025.</p>\n<p>Last, according to <em>The Fly</em> and in-line with my overall thesis on NIO stock, JPMorgan warned in early March that “Nio’s Q1 margin could trend down further while the magnitude of improvement from Q2 will be shy of Street expectations, considering the ‘challenging competition environment.'”</p>\n<h2>The Bottom Line on NIO Stock</h2>\n<p>Because Nio focuses on higher-end consumers in China, its total addressable market is already limited. On top of that, the company faces a great deal of competition that’s only growing <em>and</em> it lacks meaningful advantages. Meanwhile, margins sank last year and Nio underperformed its peers last month. Analysts expect Nio to remain unprofitable for years.</p>\n<p>On the positive side of things, Nio has expanded to Europe, where it plans to offer much more affordable EVs. The trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for NIO stock is a rather low 2.2X as well.</p>\n<p>Still, it will probably take at least three years for European sales to move the needle for shares of this company. I also expect the EV maker to lose market share in China over the next two years.</p>\n<p>In light of all of these points, my 2025 price target for NIO stock is only $11.</p>\n<p><em>On the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.</em></p>\n<div>\n<p>Larry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 15 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel’s largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been PLUG, XOM and solar stocks. You can reach him on Stocktwits at @larryramer.</p>\n</div>\n<div>\n<p>Consumer Discretionary, Automotive, Electric Vehicles</p>\n</div>\n<div>\n<p>Growth Stocks</p>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div></div>\n<div></div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div hidden=\"true\">\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 261 32\" width=\"261\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M38.8652 7.49652H42.2492V25.7517H38.8652V7.49652ZM60.0112 7.49652H63.3142V25.7517H60.0921L50.9278 13.1733V25.7517H47.6248V7.49652H50.8469L60.0112 20.0749V7.49652ZM66.5201 7.49652H70.2279L75.4578 21.8955L80.7685 7.49652H84.3144L77.1417 25.7517H73.5957L66.5201 7.49652ZM87.4232 7.49652H100.457V10.5418H90.8072V15.0601H99.5019V18.1054H90.8072V22.7064H100.781V25.7517H87.4232V7.49652ZM113.637 10.8563C112.666 10.5253 111.872 10.3598 111.063 10.3598C110.253 10.3598 109.622 10.5253 109.136 10.8563C108.65 11.1873 108.407 11.601 108.407 12.1803C108.407 12.6768 108.569 13.0906 108.893 13.4216C109.217 13.7526 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https://investorplace.com/2023/04/my-nio-stock-price-target-for-2025/.</p>\n<p>©2023 InvestorPlace Media, LLC</p>\n</div>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2>Sponsored Headlines</h2>\n</div>\n<div>\n<ins></ins>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My Nio Stock Price Target for 2025</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy Nio Stock Price Target for 2025\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-25 23:42 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/04/my-nio-stock-price-target-for-2025/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio’s (NIO) competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market is heating up and the company lacks strong competitive advantages.\nThe EV maker also showed disappointing delivery figures for March.\nNIO ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/04/my-nio-stock-price-target-for-2025/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/04/my-nio-stock-price-target-for-2025/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2330031877","content_text":"Nio’s (NIO) competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market is heating up and the company lacks strong competitive advantages.\nThe EV maker also showed disappointing delivery figures for March.\nNIO stock likely won’t outperform the market over the long term.\n\n\n\n\nSource: Robert Way / Shutterstock.com\nNio (NYSE:NIO) is facing rapidly increasing competition. Meanwhile, the company’s margins are also being pressured by an accelerating price war in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market. But that’s not all. Nio’s addressable market is quite limited and the firm lacks strong competitive advantages. Given all of these points, I believe investors are best off unloading their NIO stock while they still can.\nLooking forward, I don’t expect shares of this EV maker to outperform the market over the next two years. So, what can investors expect? Let’s take a look at why investors should consider avoiding Nio — and what NIO stock may look like by 2025.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNIO Stock: Increasing Competition and Price Wars\nFirst off, it’s clear that Nio is facing increasing competition. Just this month at the Shanghai Auto Show, Nissan (OTCMKTS:NSANY) unveiled a new electric SUV called the Arizon. Other automakers like Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY), Mercedes Benz (OTCMKTS:MBGYY) and BYD (OTCMKTS:BYDDY) also debuted EVs at the show. Given its very strong position in China, BYD’s new vehicles — from the Seagull to the Yangwang U9 supercar — could be especially problematic for China-based Nio.\nMeanwhile, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has cut the prices of its higher-end EVs by between 16% and 23% since the beginning of the year. Those price reductions will likely pressure Nio’s vehicle sales. That’s especially true because the Chinese EV maker reportedly plans to refrain from reducing its own prices.\nOf course, Nio’s reluctance to reduce prices is understandable. The company’s gross margin sank to just 10% in 2022, down from 18% in 2021.\nA Lack of Strong Competitive Advantages\nIn the past, I have been upbeat about Nio’s innovative battery-swapping system, which allows drivers to quickly exchange their used batteries for fully charged ones. But now that Tesla’s Superchargers in China allow drivers to add 250 kilometers of range in 15 minutes, I’m not sure that Nio’s battery-swap program gives the EV maker much of an advantage.\nMoreover, another one of Nio’s competitors, China-based EV startup Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI), is reportedly launching an “800-volt fast-charging system” that will enable its vehicles “to get 400 kilometers (roughly 250 miles) of range on a 10-minute charge.” Also worth mentioning is the fact that Li’s hybrid vehicles use gas to charge and extend the range of their batteries. As a result, Li drivers don’t have to worry as much about “range anxiety” as Nio drivers potentially do.\nFinally, on the autonomous driving front, Nio reportedly offers Level 2. However, Mercedes was able to bring Level 3 autonomy to the U.S. this year. Meanwhile, China-based competitor Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) is apparently “close to Level 3” and “could be ‘three years ahead of competitors.'”\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDiscouraging Stats and an Uninspiring Outlook\nUnlike many other China-based EV makers whose sales rose in March versus February, Nio’s deliveries dropped almost 15% during the same period. The company is also lacking on the profitability side; operating income sank to -$2.27 billion last year from -$707 million in 2021.\nMeanwhile, analysts on average expect Nio to continue to lose money through 2025. The mean estimate calls for the company’s EPS to fall to -$1.02 this year followed by -30 cents in 2024 and -3 cents in 2025.\nLast, according to The Fly and in-line with my overall thesis on NIO stock, JPMorgan warned in early March that “Nio’s Q1 margin could trend down further while the magnitude of improvement from Q2 will be shy of Street expectations, considering the ‘challenging competition environment.'”\nThe Bottom Line on NIO Stock\nBecause Nio focuses on higher-end consumers in China, its total addressable market is already limited. On top of that, the company faces a great deal of competition that’s only growing and it lacks meaningful advantages. Meanwhile, margins sank last year and Nio underperformed its peers last month. Analysts expect Nio to remain unprofitable for years.\nOn the positive side of things, Nio has expanded to Europe, where it plans to offer much more affordable EVs. The trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for NIO stock is a rather low 2.2X as well.\nStill, it will probably take at least three years for European sales to move the needle for shares of this company. I also expect the EV maker to lose market share in China over the next two years.\nIn light of all of these points, my 2025 price target for NIO stock is only $11.\nOn the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.\n\nLarry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 15 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel’s largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been PLUG, XOM and solar stocks. You can reach him on Stocktwits at @larryramer.\n\n\nConsumer Discretionary, Automotive, Electric Vehicles\n\n\nGrowth Stocks\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSubmit\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nArticle printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2023/04/my-nio-stock-price-target-for-2025/.\n©2023 InvestorPlace Media, LLC\n\n\n\n\nSponsored 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16:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"受疫情影响,蔚来整车生产已经暂停","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115930869","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"蔚来汽车在其官方APP上表示,自3月份以来,因为疫情原因,公司位于吉林、上海、江苏等多地的供应链合作伙伴陆续停产,目前尚未恢复。受此影响,蔚来整车生产已经暂停。由于上述原因,近期不少用户的车辆会推迟交","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>蔚来汽车在其官方APP上表示,自3月份以来,因为疫情原因,公司位于吉林、上海、江苏等多地的供应链合作伙伴陆续停产,目前尚未恢复。受此影响,蔚来整车生产已经暂停。由于上述原因,近期不少用户的车辆会推迟交付。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab7dd2f8fe3afb7a4fe72bb6c6b033d9\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1792\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>受疫情影响,蔚来整车生产已经暂停</title>\n<style 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16:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>蔚来汽车在其官方APP上表示,自3月份以来,因为疫情原因,公司位于吉林、上海、江苏等多地的供应链合作伙伴陆续停产,目前尚未恢复。受此影响,蔚来整车生产已经暂停。由于上述原因,近期不少用户的车辆会推迟交付。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab7dd2f8fe3afb7a4fe72bb6c6b033d9\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1792\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608c0ca7f544a93854339353ff5e9ae1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115930869","content_text":"蔚来汽车在其官方APP上表示,自3月份以来,因为疫情原因,公司位于吉林、上海、江苏等多地的供应链合作伙伴陆续停产,目前尚未恢复。受此影响,蔚来整车生产已经暂停。由于上述原因,近期不少用户的车辆会推迟交付。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608295113,"gmtCreate":1638746216642,"gmtModify":1638746216642,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太棒了👏👏👏","listText":"太棒了👏👏👏","text":"太棒了👏👏👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608295113","repostId":"2189057469","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2189057469","pubTimestamp":1638696264,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2189057469?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-05 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2022年上半年,蔚来NT1. 0平台车型的车机底层智能硬件升级将正式启动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2189057469","media":"36氪","summary":"36氪获悉,12月5日,在蔚来电池灵活升级面对面活动中,蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪表示,明年上半年,蔚来将启动面向NT1. 0平台车型的车机底层智能硬件升级。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>获悉,12月5日,在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>电池灵活升级面对面活动中,蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪表示,明年上半年,蔚来将启动面向NT1. 0平台车型的车机底层智能硬件升级。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022年上半年,蔚来NT1. 0平台车型的车机底层智能硬件升级将正式启动</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202112051724257c5b76b5&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2189057469","content_text":"36氪获悉,12月5日,在蔚来电池灵活升级面对面活动中,蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪表示,明年上半年,蔚来将启动面向NT1. 0平台车型的车机底层智能硬件升级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603984712,"gmtCreate":1638352356752,"gmtModify":1638352356752,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小城市小鹏挺多的,北京上海还是蔚来和特斯拉的天下","listText":"小城市小鹏挺多的,北京上海还是蔚来和特斯拉的天下","text":"小城市小鹏挺多的,北京上海还是蔚来和特斯拉的天下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603984712","repostId":"2188529855","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2188529855","pubTimestamp":1638351848,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188529855?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 17:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)盘前涨超4% 11月交付15,613辆车 同比增270%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188529855","media":"格隆汇","summary":"格隆汇12月1日丨小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)盘前涨4.31%报57.37美元。公司刚刚公布,2021年11月交付15,613辆智能车,同比增270%;截止2021年11月30日的年度累计交付达到82,155辆,同比增285%;公司历史累计交付量在2021年11月底达到121,953辆。公司计划于2022年第三季度开始交付第四款车型小鹏G9。","content":"<html><body><p>格隆汇12月1日丨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(XPEV.US)盘前涨4.31%报57.37美元。公司刚刚公布,2021年11月交付15,613辆智能车,同比增270%;截止2021年11月30日的年度累计交付达到82,155辆,同比增285%;公司历史累计交付量在2021年11月底达到121,953辆。公司计划于2022年第三季度开始交付第四款车型小鹏G9。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=645966><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>格隆汇12月1日丨小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)盘前涨4.31%报57.37美元。公司刚刚公布,2021年11月交付15,613辆智能车,同比增270%;截止2021年11月30日的年度累计交付达到82,155辆,同比增285%;公司历史累计交付量在2021年11月底达到121,953辆。公司计划于2022年第三季度开始交付第四款车型小鹏G9。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=645966\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd218e5c5957c09b71dd359f7065c93","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=645966","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188529855","content_text":"格隆汇12月1日丨小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)盘前涨4.31%报57.37美元。公司刚刚公布,2021年11月交付15,613辆智能车,同比增270%;截止2021年11月30日的年度累计交付达到82,155辆,同比增285%;公司历史累计交付量在2021年11月底达到121,953辆。公司计划于2022年第三季度开始交付第四款车型小鹏G9。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603984385,"gmtCreate":1638352268576,"gmtModify":1638352268576,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"穷苦大众 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>,曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨35倍接近4000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马和福特一众百年老店纷纷甩在身后吃灰。</p>\n<p>◇<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,上市均不过4个月有余,股价已然双双翻倍,市值已然超越广汽 、直逼吉利……</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a34a0988323090b543efc7dd1af8ab\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"625\"><span>图1:无可匹敌的造车新势力</span></p>\n<p>虽然必须要指出的是,造车新势力集体的高估值,对所有利益相关方都是好处多多:无论是一级市场的投资人,还是作为拿原始股的公司员工,没有人会不喜欢高估值,高估值意味着手中的真金白银的迅速膨胀,二级市场乐于为新能源击鼓传花,一级市场自然顺水推舟。</p>\n<p>但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。</p>\n<p>基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?</p>\n<p><i><b>01</b></i></p>\n<p><b>一道数学题</b></p>\n<p>如果单论从业绩来说,此刻的造车新势力仍然相当囊中羞涩。</p>\n<p>数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。而传统造车势力<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>20年前三季度累计销量361.32万辆。两者出货量差距以百倍计。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64eb7c92755d9e5f667b6c998c8c0b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\"><span>图2:造车新势力们的销量情况(市值统计截至11月9日)。来源:中新经纬</span></p>\n<p>显然,这样的业绩实在谈不上优秀。</p>\n<p>对任何一家车企来说,年销量十万辆以上才初步有规模效应,能够盈亏平衡;而更残酷的是,作为初创市场的电动车企,前期疯狂的投入更是让这个规模效应门槛迅速提升。</p>\n<p>特斯拉今年迄今为止的总销量为316820辆,但这样一个傲视群雄的销量,上半年净利率才仅仅为2.72%。而其他如蔚来销量3万辆左右,净利率更是惨不忍睹。</p>\n<p>利润欠奉,收入也少得可怜,想要靠业绩支持千亿估值,实在有点拿不出手。受制于骨感的现实,想要做好市值管理,必须要将业绩与估值剥离开,用A股时下流行观点就是:“不再受业绩拖累”。</p>\n<p>只要市场上的投资者不再在乎实打实的业绩,而是为可能的未来想象空间买单,那么当下无论亏损多少,生意模式是否可行,都不再是有意义的问题。</p>\n<p>这就组成了一道很简单的数学题:</p>\n<p>今年到目前为止只卖了3万多辆车的蔚来市值已经接近4000亿人民币,而卖了2万多辆车的理想市值也接近2000亿。</p>\n<p><b>造车新势力每卖一辆车就相当于1000万市值。与之对比,上汽集团前三季度造车361万辆,市值3137亿,每造一辆车市值对应8万左右。</b></p>\n<p>具体而言:</p>\n<p><b>【1】卖一辆亏一辆</b></p>\n<p>此刻,曾经A股白酒股出现过的“卖酒不如倒酒涨市值快”的谜题,在造车新势力身上重现江湖:</p>\n<p>对造车新势力来说,卖一辆车价值最多几十万,但如果每卖一辆车就可以换超过1000万市值,这样1:20的回报率情况下,最为滑稽但又最为理性的选择是:<b>把车白送给消费者,提升估值反而是最快的。</b></p>\n<p>讲真,把车赔送出去这个想法,造车新势力并不是没有尝试过,实际上早就已经是基本操作了。</p>\n<p>拿蔚来举例:消费者每购买一辆新能源车,国家给新能源车消费者都要免税+补贴,但即便如此,2018年、2019年,蔚来卖车净利率始终保持在-100%以上,分别为-194%和-144%;好在今年硬体建设资本支出按下暂停键,销量的上扬,使其净利率来到-56%左右。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d92dd38f6190c19f8e6ee292eb112b\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>图3:蔚来汽车的过去数年财务摘要。来源:Wind金融终端</span></p>\n<p>也就是说,回顾迄今为止的蔚来造车历史,平均的亏损程度,真正到了字面意义上的卖一辆亏一辆的地步:将过去3年平摊,每1亿的营收都代表着近乎近一亿的亏损,每卖一辆就代表又亏损了一辆。</p>\n<p>这样大规模的亏损,蔚来一方面解释为,是规模效应还没有到来的缘故;另一方面,诸多匪夷所思的操作也是重要原因。</p>\n<p>来看蔚来这些年推出的亏损大礼包——比如在2019年8月宣布为所有ES8和ES6首任车主开启“终身免费换电”的服务。</p>\n<p>要知道,早在2013年,特斯拉就推出了换电模式,之后特斯拉舍弃换电转而专注发展快充技术,其中最大的原因便是费用问题。</p>\n<p>特斯拉的换电服务定价,甚至比汽油车加油还要贵,基本上在60-80美金之间,,换电成本的惊人之高最终让特斯拉选择放弃。</p>\n<p>而是为对比,蔚来不仅对老车主提供的是终身免费换电服务,除此之外,选择换电模式的蔚来车用户,还可以在补贴后的价格基础上再减去7万元购买蔚来电动车。</p>\n<p>可以想象,这种免费换电模式就一路亏损,规模不经济让造车新势力的单车亏损进一步提升。</p>\n<p>这个减免+亏损的速度,即便背后站着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>这种财大气粗的金主,蔚来也是支撑不住的。终于,到今年8月20日,这家造车新势力终于宣布将对定金2万元用户免费换电权益进行调整,免费换电将于2020年10月12日起宣告中止。</p>\n<p><b>【2】用亏损赚估值</b></p>\n<p>当然,作为一名乐观的投资者,你可以说这是“倒吃甘蔗,一节更比一节甜”,就像你说它是“中国版特斯拉一样”,未来未至,谁能证伪呢?</p>\n<p>不过即便如此,造车新势力们“白送”的古怪行为背后原因还是显而易见的——这源于当前疯狂的市场赋予新能源车企业的定价模型:</p>\n<p>与传统汽车的周期股形象不同,市场对新能源车企的广阔未来充满想象,这背后的算计是,尽管造车新势力当下销量业绩欠奉,但长期赛道和高增长的逻辑没有打破,眼下的亏损并不重要,能够做出销量增长的趋势才是最重要的。</p>\n<p>(这里会有投资者反驳说,理想汽车并非如此,它上市前即实现了盈利。但如果你了解增程技术的历史与成本,就明白这种车型本应归到传统车企行列。如是,你不妨再去对比下本土传统车企7座SUV的定价,就理解销量有限、定价31.98万/辆的理想ONE为何有利润了。)</p>\n<p>因此,连卖带“送”,用最小的成本卖出最多的车,做出最好的增长曲线就成了最好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。亏钱大礼包只是业绩上亏损100%,但市值上却可以赚2000%。</b>这道数学题在新势力们市值管理战术本中,早就算得清清楚楚。</p>\n<p><i><b>02</b></i></p>\n<p><b>一道文学题</b></p>\n<p>对于造车新势力来说,一旦销量直线上升,后续概率性问题难免越来越多。此时数学和心理学力所不能及之处,使得学习遣词造句的必要性就大大凸现出来。</p>\n<p>与很多新经济前辈一样,造车新势力们也十分热衷用新词来改变叙事,词用的玄妙,让投资者更认定这家公司是代表了新能源和人类的未来——哪怕产品线有缺陷,常常召回,只要你代表人类未来,你的估值杠杆就是1:20。</p>\n<p>比如:租电池叫Battery as a service(BaaS),这都已经不算什么汉语创新;理想给一辆混动车加一个增程式的名字混入新能源方阵,也仅仅是造车新势力的汉语言文学的小插曲。</p>\n<p>截至目前,对汉语言文学贡献最大的案例来自于特斯拉和理想:车辆出现断轴情况之后,特斯拉声称,是中国用户对车辆“滥用”,而不是质量问题;理想汽车则在断轴事故发生后,试图将车辆召回定义为“硬件升级”。</p>\n<p><b>在攸关人命的事故面前,新势力匪夷所思的脑回路令人毛骨悚然。</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe04f17272b509d8d23acbb0251673c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"798\"><span>图3:理想ONE碰撞事故导致断轴。来源:网络</span></p>\n<p>好在除了赚的盆满钵满的狂热投资者粉丝,市场中还有冷静的监管者:国家市场监管总局网站11月6日公布召回信息,理想汽车自即日起,召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车,共计10469辆。</p>\n<p><i><b>03</b></i></p>\n<p><b>树不会长到天上</b></p>\n<p>“造车唯唯诺诺,造词重拳出击”的造车新势力,在它们当前的市值管理战术本里,写满了新数学和新文学的笔记,一切都为了1:20的市值增长杠杆。</p>\n<p>但树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏和理想当然也不能。</p>\n<p>对于沉浮于赚钱效应五彩泡沫里快一年的投资者而言,不止是2020年,2021年更要对这些新能源车企好一些——因为它们很大概率将比较难过:</p>\n<p>2020年造词这种文学幻术已经被戳破;及至2021年,随着那些有真实业绩的龙头——特斯拉和比亚迪们盈利增速的夯实,<b>电动车企的估值模型,势必将逐渐由1:20倍回报率的PS(市销率)模式转向PE(市盈率)</b>,<b>届时故事再好(前有国家产业意志开道,背靠BTAM金主护航)也要有人买单</b>。</p>\n<p>平心而论,在一波牛市中,究竟谁在裸泳是根本看不出来的。但如果始终看不出来谁将是这场宴会买单者,也许我们应该清楚意识到,自己就是买单的那个人。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-09 14:45 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RcBaiCeJIK1AYcQ9nhGPuQ><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:\n◆总龙头特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;\n◇过去10年始终不温不火的比亚迪,直接暴涨4倍。\n而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:\n◆蔚来,曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨35倍接近4000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RcBaiCeJIK1AYcQ9nhGPuQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4511499bacecdc387fe2338ba2c16251","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份","LI":"理想汽车","00175":"吉利汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RcBaiCeJIK1AYcQ9nhGPuQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194783039","content_text":"2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:\n◆总龙头特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;\n◇过去10年始终不温不火的比亚迪,直接暴涨4倍。\n而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:\n◆蔚来,曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨35倍接近4000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马和福特一众百年老店纷纷甩在身后吃灰。\n◇小鹏汽车与理想汽车,上市均不过4个月有余,股价已然双双翻倍,市值已然超越广汽 、直逼吉利……\n图1:无可匹敌的造车新势力\n虽然必须要指出的是,造车新势力集体的高估值,对所有利益相关方都是好处多多:无论是一级市场的投资人,还是作为拿原始股的公司员工,没有人会不喜欢高估值,高估值意味着手中的真金白银的迅速膨胀,二级市场乐于为新能源击鼓传花,一级市场自然顺水推舟。\n但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。\n基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?\n01\n一道数学题\n如果单论从业绩来说,此刻的造车新势力仍然相当囊中羞涩。\n数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。而传统造车势力上汽集团20年前三季度累计销量361.32万辆。两者出货量差距以百倍计。\n图2:造车新势力们的销量情况(市值统计截至11月9日)。来源:中新经纬\n显然,这样的业绩实在谈不上优秀。\n对任何一家车企来说,年销量十万辆以上才初步有规模效应,能够盈亏平衡;而更残酷的是,作为初创市场的电动车企,前期疯狂的投入更是让这个规模效应门槛迅速提升。\n特斯拉今年迄今为止的总销量为316820辆,但这样一个傲视群雄的销量,上半年净利率才仅仅为2.72%。而其他如蔚来销量3万辆左右,净利率更是惨不忍睹。\n利润欠奉,收入也少得可怜,想要靠业绩支持千亿估值,实在有点拿不出手。受制于骨感的现实,想要做好市值管理,必须要将业绩与估值剥离开,用A股时下流行观点就是:“不再受业绩拖累”。\n只要市场上的投资者不再在乎实打实的业绩,而是为可能的未来想象空间买单,那么当下无论亏损多少,生意模式是否可行,都不再是有意义的问题。\n这就组成了一道很简单的数学题:\n今年到目前为止只卖了3万多辆车的蔚来市值已经接近4000亿人民币,而卖了2万多辆车的理想市值也接近2000亿。\n造车新势力每卖一辆车就相当于1000万市值。与之对比,上汽集团前三季度造车361万辆,市值3137亿,每造一辆车市值对应8万左右。\n具体而言:\n【1】卖一辆亏一辆\n此刻,曾经A股白酒股出现过的“卖酒不如倒酒涨市值快”的谜题,在造车新势力身上重现江湖:\n对造车新势力来说,卖一辆车价值最多几十万,但如果每卖一辆车就可以换超过1000万市值,这样1:20的回报率情况下,最为滑稽但又最为理性的选择是:把车白送给消费者,提升估值反而是最快的。\n讲真,把车赔送出去这个想法,造车新势力并不是没有尝试过,实际上早就已经是基本操作了。\n拿蔚来举例:消费者每购买一辆新能源车,国家给新能源车消费者都要免税+补贴,但即便如此,2018年、2019年,蔚来卖车净利率始终保持在-100%以上,分别为-194%和-144%;好在今年硬体建设资本支出按下暂停键,销量的上扬,使其净利率来到-56%左右。\n图3:蔚来汽车的过去数年财务摘要。来源:Wind金融终端\n也就是说,回顾迄今为止的蔚来造车历史,平均的亏损程度,真正到了字面意义上的卖一辆亏一辆的地步:将过去3年平摊,每1亿的营收都代表着近乎近一亿的亏损,每卖一辆就代表又亏损了一辆。\n这样大规模的亏损,蔚来一方面解释为,是规模效应还没有到来的缘故;另一方面,诸多匪夷所思的操作也是重要原因。\n来看蔚来这些年推出的亏损大礼包——比如在2019年8月宣布为所有ES8和ES6首任车主开启“终身免费换电”的服务。\n要知道,早在2013年,特斯拉就推出了换电模式,之后特斯拉舍弃换电转而专注发展快充技术,其中最大的原因便是费用问题。\n特斯拉的换电服务定价,甚至比汽油车加油还要贵,基本上在60-80美金之间,,换电成本的惊人之高最终让特斯拉选择放弃。\n而是为对比,蔚来不仅对老车主提供的是终身免费换电服务,除此之外,选择换电模式的蔚来车用户,还可以在补贴后的价格基础上再减去7万元购买蔚来电动车。\n可以想象,这种免费换电模式就一路亏损,规模不经济让造车新势力的单车亏损进一步提升。\n这个减免+亏损的速度,即便背后站着腾讯和宁德时代这种财大气粗的金主,蔚来也是支撑不住的。终于,到今年8月20日,这家造车新势力终于宣布将对定金2万元用户免费换电权益进行调整,免费换电将于2020年10月12日起宣告中止。\n【2】用亏损赚估值\n当然,作为一名乐观的投资者,你可以说这是“倒吃甘蔗,一节更比一节甜”,就像你说它是“中国版特斯拉一样”,未来未至,谁能证伪呢?\n不过即便如此,造车新势力们“白送”的古怪行为背后原因还是显而易见的——这源于当前疯狂的市场赋予新能源车企业的定价模型:\n与传统汽车的周期股形象不同,市场对新能源车企的广阔未来充满想象,这背后的算计是,尽管造车新势力当下销量业绩欠奉,但长期赛道和高增长的逻辑没有打破,眼下的亏损并不重要,能够做出销量增长的趋势才是最重要的。\n(这里会有投资者反驳说,理想汽车并非如此,它上市前即实现了盈利。但如果你了解增程技术的历史与成本,就明白这种车型本应归到传统车企行列。如是,你不妨再去对比下本土传统车企7座SUV的定价,就理解销量有限、定价31.98万/辆的理想ONE为何有利润了。)\n因此,连卖带“送”,用最小的成本卖出最多的车,做出最好的增长曲线就成了最好的选择。\n每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。亏钱大礼包只是业绩上亏损100%,但市值上却可以赚2000%。这道数学题在新势力们市值管理战术本中,早就算得清清楚楚。\n02\n一道文学题\n对于造车新势力来说,一旦销量直线上升,后续概率性问题难免越来越多。此时数学和心理学力所不能及之处,使得学习遣词造句的必要性就大大凸现出来。\n与很多新经济前辈一样,造车新势力们也十分热衷用新词来改变叙事,词用的玄妙,让投资者更认定这家公司是代表了新能源和人类的未来——哪怕产品线有缺陷,常常召回,只要你代表人类未来,你的估值杠杆就是1:20。\n比如:租电池叫Battery as a service(BaaS),这都已经不算什么汉语创新;理想给一辆混动车加一个增程式的名字混入新能源方阵,也仅仅是造车新势力的汉语言文学的小插曲。\n截至目前,对汉语言文学贡献最大的案例来自于特斯拉和理想:车辆出现断轴情况之后,特斯拉声称,是中国用户对车辆“滥用”,而不是质量问题;理想汽车则在断轴事故发生后,试图将车辆召回定义为“硬件升级”。\n在攸关人命的事故面前,新势力匪夷所思的脑回路令人毛骨悚然。\n图3:理想ONE碰撞事故导致断轴。来源:网络\n好在除了赚的盆满钵满的狂热投资者粉丝,市场中还有冷静的监管者:国家市场监管总局网站11月6日公布召回信息,理想汽车自即日起,召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车,共计10469辆。\n03\n树不会长到天上\n“造车唯唯诺诺,造词重拳出击”的造车新势力,在它们当前的市值管理战术本里,写满了新数学和新文学的笔记,一切都为了1:20的市值增长杠杆。\n但树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏和理想当然也不能。\n对于沉浮于赚钱效应五彩泡沫里快一年的投资者而言,不止是2020年,2021年更要对这些新能源车企好一些——因为它们很大概率将比较难过:\n2020年造词这种文学幻术已经被戳破;及至2021年,随着那些有真实业绩的龙头——特斯拉和比亚迪们盈利增速的夯实,电动车企的估值模型,势必将逐渐由1:20倍回报率的PS(市销率)模式转向PE(市盈率),届时故事再好(前有国家产业意志开道,背靠BTAM金主护航)也要有人买单。\n平心而论,在一波牛市中,究竟谁在裸泳是根本看不出来的。但如果始终看不出来谁将是这场宴会买单者,也许我们应该清楚意识到,自己就是买单的那个人。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302781949,"gmtCreate":1604728870881,"gmtModify":1703834659989,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"绝对值","listText":"绝对值","text":"绝对值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302781949","repostId":"2081825979","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308531606,"gmtCreate":1604015238605,"gmtModify":1703831659807,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"难怪你只能当记者 ","listText":"难怪你只能当记者 ","text":"难怪你只能当记者","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308531606","repostId":"2079564177","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2079564177","pubTimestamp":1604009216,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2079564177?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-30 06:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比亚迪vs蔚来哪只更应买入?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2079564177","media":"金融界网站","summary":"股神巴菲特爱股比亚迪于过去一个月累升约4成,另一电动车股蔚来表现更为神勇,过去1年累升近20倍。比亚迪与蔚来同属电动汽车生产商,两者主要分别是一家录得盈利,而另一家则处于投资期仍未扭亏,不过市值高近对方1倍的是处于亏损的蔚来汽车。同期比亚迪的现金流对价格比率则分别为21倍及19股倍。因此比亚迪算是同业中估值较为贴地的。相比之下,比亚迪更受机构及著名投资者欢迎。","content":"<html><body><article><p>股神巴菲特爱股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>于过去一个月累升约4成,另一电动车股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>表现更为神勇,过去1年累升近20倍。当前何者更值得吸纳?</p><p>比亚迪与蔚来同属电动汽车生产商,两者主要分别是一家录得盈利,而另一家则处于投资期仍未扭亏,不过市值高近对方1倍的是处于亏损的蔚来汽车(市值约370亿美元)。</p><p><strong>比亚迪已进入收成期</strong></p><p>比亚迪将首三季(1-9月)盈利指引上调至34亿至36亿元人民币,相等于反映第3季(截至9月)盈利指引上调至17.4亿至19.4亿元人民币,显然已进入收成期。至于蔚来汽车第二季度营收为约5.264亿美元,按年大增146.5%,季内净亏损为约1.665亿美元,按年减少64.2%,按季也减少30.4%。虽然两者生意都有着强劲增长,但已录盈利的公司始终更予人信心。</p><p>事实上,根据彭博综合券商预测,比亚迪今年每股盈利料增加1.8倍,2021财年及2022财年则分别有8.3%及26.7%的增长。至于蔚来,一年前公司还在破产边缘,自从今年合肥政府注资100亿人民币后,其汽车交付量亦接连上升,刺激亏损快速收窄,不过券预计蔚来到2022财年仍未能扭亏。</p><p><strong>蔚来估值离地</strong></p><p>估值上,比亚迪股价今年以来累升2倍,而蔚来则升6倍,然而今年第二季蔚来才首次录得自由现金流正数,而彭博预期2021财年,蔚来现金流对价格比率高达1171倍,2022财年也达772倍。同期比亚迪的现金流对价格比率则分别为21倍及19股倍。此外,比亚迪今明两年预测市盈率分别为90倍和83.6倍,较电动车龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的120倍为低。因此比亚迪算是同业中估值较为贴地的。</p><p>发展大计方面,比亚迪计划将已重组的半导体业务回A股上市,虽然未必能在今年余下时间内完成,但旗下半导体业务早前引入包括韩国SK集团、小米及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">联想集团</a>等共30名投资者,股东阵容鼎盛,加上比亚迪有股神巴菲特的巴郡持股8.25%,更是星光熠熠。相信随着回A计划有进展可望刺激股价再上。</p><p><strong>比亚迪股东阵容鼎盛</strong></p><p>蔚来的股东名单亦什强劲,根据美国SEC递交20-F文件显示,截至3月底,蔚来创始人李斌持有拥有13.8%股权,及47%投票权;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>持股12.6%,为第二大股东;拥有21.1%的投票权;Baillie Gifford & Co持股为9.1%,有4%的投票权;淡马锡持股为1.3 %,拥有0.5%的投票权。要留意是此前报告显示淡马锡持股曾高达5.4%,反映淡马锡逐渐减持,另外高瓴资本则在今年第一季清空蔚来所有持股。相比之下,比亚迪更受机构及著名投资者欢迎。</p><p>蔚来没有分拆,但计划自主研发自动驾驶计算晶片,也是推动股价的有力动作。此前公司已成立独立硬件团队Smart HW并开始筹备引入相关人才,该项目或将纳入年底预算会。芯片研发正是内地国策所向,不同企业纷纷进行相关投资,惟成功难度极大。当前蔚来提出此一业务发展,虽可乘国策扶持之际抢先开发,但料烧钱情况也相当惊人,或延长投资期及扭亏计划。</p><p>总括而言,比亚迪有实则盈利兼估值较同业为低的优势,分拆业务亦可进一步释放价值以及星级股东加持,二选一会拣比亚迪。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比亚迪vs蔚来哪只更应买入?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比亚迪vs蔚来哪只更应买入?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-30 06:06 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202010300607197b43a60b&s=b><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>股神巴菲特爱股比亚迪于过去一个月累升约4成,另一电动车股蔚来表现更为神勇,过去1年累升近20倍。当前何者更值得吸纳?比亚迪与蔚来同属电动汽车生产商,两者主要分别是一家录得盈利,而另一家则处于投资期仍未扭亏,不过市值高近对方1倍的是处于亏损的蔚来汽车(市值约370亿美元)。比亚迪已进入收成期比亚迪将首三季(1-9月)盈利指引上调至34亿至36亿元人民币,相等于反映第3季(截至9月)盈利指引上调至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202010300607197b43a60b&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b71d696bed7d7f2622aa052fa49f99","relate_stocks":{"01211":"比亚迪股份","NIO":"蔚来","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202010300607197b43a60b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2079564177","content_text":"股神巴菲特爱股比亚迪于过去一个月累升约4成,另一电动车股蔚来表现更为神勇,过去1年累升近20倍。当前何者更值得吸纳?比亚迪与蔚来同属电动汽车生产商,两者主要分别是一家录得盈利,而另一家则处于投资期仍未扭亏,不过市值高近对方1倍的是处于亏损的蔚来汽车(市值约370亿美元)。比亚迪已进入收成期比亚迪将首三季(1-9月)盈利指引上调至34亿至36亿元人民币,相等于反映第3季(截至9月)盈利指引上调至17.4亿至19.4亿元人民币,显然已进入收成期。至于蔚来汽车第二季度营收为约5.264亿美元,按年大增146.5%,季内净亏损为约1.665亿美元,按年减少64.2%,按季也减少30.4%。虽然两者生意都有着强劲增长,但已录盈利的公司始终更予人信心。事实上,根据彭博综合券商预测,比亚迪今年每股盈利料增加1.8倍,2021财年及2022财年则分别有8.3%及26.7%的增长。至于蔚来,一年前公司还在破产边缘,自从今年合肥政府注资100亿人民币后,其汽车交付量亦接连上升,刺激亏损快速收窄,不过券预计蔚来到2022财年仍未能扭亏。蔚来估值离地估值上,比亚迪股价今年以来累升2倍,而蔚来则升6倍,然而今年第二季蔚来才首次录得自由现金流正数,而彭博预期2021财年,蔚来现金流对价格比率高达1171倍,2022财年也达772倍。同期比亚迪的现金流对价格比率则分别为21倍及19股倍。此外,比亚迪今明两年预测市盈率分别为90倍和83.6倍,较电动车龙头特斯拉的120倍为低。因此比亚迪算是同业中估值较为贴地的。发展大计方面,比亚迪计划将已重组的半导体业务回A股上市,虽然未必能在今年余下时间内完成,但旗下半导体业务早前引入包括韩国SK集团、小米及联想集团等共30名投资者,股东阵容鼎盛,加上比亚迪有股神巴菲特的巴郡持股8.25%,更是星光熠熠。相信随着回A计划有进展可望刺激股价再上。比亚迪股东阵容鼎盛蔚来的股东名单亦什强劲,根据美国SEC递交20-F文件显示,截至3月底,蔚来创始人李斌持有拥有13.8%股权,及47%投票权;腾讯持股12.6%,为第二大股东;拥有21.1%的投票权;Baillie Gifford & Co持股为9.1%,有4%的投票权;淡马锡持股为1.3 %,拥有0.5%的投票权。要留意是此前报告显示淡马锡持股曾高达5.4%,反映淡马锡逐渐减持,另外高瓴资本则在今年第一季清空蔚来所有持股。相比之下,比亚迪更受机构及著名投资者欢迎。蔚来没有分拆,但计划自主研发自动驾驶计算晶片,也是推动股价的有力动作。此前公司已成立独立硬件团队Smart HW并开始筹备引入相关人才,该项目或将纳入年底预算会。芯片研发正是内地国策所向,不同企业纷纷进行相关投资,惟成功难度极大。当前蔚来提出此一业务发展,虽可乘国策扶持之际抢先开发,但料烧钱情况也相当惊人,或延长投资期及扭亏计划。总括而言,比亚迪有实则盈利兼估值较同业为低的优势,分拆业务亦可进一步释放价值以及星级股东加持,二选一会拣比亚迪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":603984712,"gmtCreate":1638352356752,"gmtModify":1638352356752,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小城市小鹏挺多的,北京上海还是蔚来和特斯拉的天下","listText":"小城市小鹏挺多的,北京上海还是蔚来和特斯拉的天下","text":"小城市小鹏挺多的,北京上海还是蔚来和特斯拉的天下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603984712","repostId":"2188529855","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832200422,"gmtCreate":1629631235966,"gmtModify":1629631235966,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"林某家属 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20:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"蔚来藏了32个月的谜底,终于揭晓","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2419689659","media":"新智驾","summary":"如今,在经过3年多的保密和蓄力之后,“乐道”这个名字终于取代了代号。3月13日,据行业爆料,蔚来第二品牌名称为乐道汽车,首款车型命名为乐道L60。公开资料显示,蔚来汽车此前已注册了包括乐道、动量、想向等多个新商标。而乐道的第二款车已在开模阶段,是针对大家庭的SUV,预计明年推向市场。按照蔚来对乐道第二款车型的定义,ES6和ES8同样也将受到影响。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O4BPMY2aqmRw1JGbReRW_5U5owgeRlWyLW81FGhR0c8IwAA/0\"/><p><strong>你看好乐道这个名字,以及它的首款车L60吗?</strong></p><p><strong>编辑 | 李雨晨</strong></p><p>2021年7月,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车被曝将推出独立于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>的子品牌,内部代号为阿尔卑斯(ALPS)。如今,在经过3年多的保密和蓄力之后,“乐道”这个名字终于取代了代号。</p><p>3月13日,据行业爆料,蔚来第二品牌名称为乐道汽车,首款车型命名为乐道L60。从曝光的图片上来看,乐道汽车的英文名称为ONVO,N字形为品牌LOGO。</p><p>从外观来看,新车车头的激光雷达变成了两个,分布在车头两侧。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OEGkZJHHFl4P0QamSWpGriuC-lz3aEJIpOGHwgt29-NZMAA/0\"/><p>前脸采用了组合大灯的设计,LED日行车灯与大灯保持平行,前脸则依旧使用了封闭式的设计,两侧的进气孔为车辆增加了一丝运动气息。</p><p>侧面来看,新车则采用了溜背式设计,车身线条较为简单,门把手依旧采用了隐藏式设计,后视镜预计将采用无边框的造型。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OdPfzhZ3SWhBz1-ELIIdpbGIiBVoVXLAO3KMghcE3lXGAAA/0\"/><p>蔚来汽车董事长李斌在用户群解释了“乐道”的品牌内涵:阖家欢乐,持家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>,津津乐道。</p><p>公开资料显示,蔚来汽车此前已注册了包括乐道、动量、想向等多个新商标。其中,乐道的申请日期为2022年7月13日,申请人为蔚来汽车科技(安徽)有限公司。</p><p>此前的交流会上,李斌就表示,第二品牌“阿尔卑斯”的生命周期里,只有三款车型,针对家庭市场,走量为主。</p><p>第一款试制车已经于去年四季度下线,今年二季度品牌将正式亮相,三季度首款车型上市,四季度开启大批量交付。</p><p>首款车型为轿跑SUV,直接对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Model Y,但成本可比Model Y低10%,且可换电。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OvAzQfbSSxIUWdOAUpSV3it25tWEXQ-pfG-8r4x-FDr3oAA/0\"/><p>之前网上流出的谍照,测试车后挡风玻璃上贴着“比毛豆Y更棒”。</p><p>而乐道的第二款车已在开模阶段,是针对大家庭的SUV,预计明年推向市场。第三款车则正在开发中。</p><p>乐道的基本逻辑是针对不同规模的家庭来推出不同尺寸的车型。优势是利用蔚来已经开发的电气化和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>技术,以及基础设施。<strong>整体更关注销量,对销量的追求优于产品毛利率。</strong></p><p>但乐道在定位上存在两个值得探讨的问题,一是产品推出的时间点,二则是其与主品牌之间可能形成的竞争。</p><p>根据李斌在电话会议中的表述,首款车型成本比Model Y再低10%,以Model Y后轮驱动版25.89万的售价以及特斯拉2023年18%左右的毛利率估算,阿尔卑斯首款车型的成本大约能做到19万,如果不追求毛利率,售价或将无限逼近20万。</p><p>面对投资人关于蔚来降本能力的质疑,李斌认为,利用国内的供应链优势,加之蔚来通过投入研发带来的优化,阿尔卑斯只需达到每月1万台的销量即可做到这个成本。</p><p>但20万级别的家用车市场,正是竞争最激烈的区间。有投资人认为,蔚来新车出牌太慢,不是特别乐观。</p><p>另一方面,乐道与主品牌之间也可能存在边界不清的问题。</p><p>虽然关于第二款车的相关信息还不多,但在此前的交流会中,李斌曾提到,家庭市场更容易定义清晰,安全、舒适、大空间、彩电、冰箱等等配置,也暗示了作为针对大家庭的SUV,第二款车型与理想、问界等产品的竞争关系。</p><p>在电话会议中谈到两个品牌间的区分时,李斌表示,蔚来不会出低于ET5售价的车型。蔚来主品牌依然是做高端品牌。阿尔卑斯负责走量,而蔚来则以保证毛利率为主。</p><p><strong>但在实际市场竞争中,ET5和Model 3之间形成直接竞争关系。也就是说,从品牌力来看,在用户认知中,蔚来并不比特斯拉高。</strong></p><p>同样,蔚来ES6、ES8与理想L7、L8、L9,以及问界M7、M9之间也存在实际的竞争关系。</p><p>而乐道同时对标Model Y以及理想与问界的定位,一定程度上也是模糊了乐道与蔚来主品牌之间的定位。</p><p>按照蔚来对乐道第二款车型的定义,ES6和ES8同样也将受到影响。</p><p>当然,李斌在此前的交流中也曾提到,高端品牌除了功能和体验,同时还具备感性价值。这也是蔚来和阿尔卑斯在产品定义中的区别。</p><p>在销售和服务网络方面,新品牌将有其独立的销售网络,售后服务则可利用现有资源。在换电方面,主要换电站将可共享,此外蔚来也会保留部分专用换电站。李斌将其与云服务对比,称为公有云和私有云。</p><p>此外,2025年,蔚来还将推出第三个品牌,针对售价20万元以内的市场,通过三个品牌的结合去覆盖更大的市场。</p><p>你看好乐道这个名字,以及它的首款车L60吗?</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来藏了32个月的谜底,终于揭晓</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来藏了32个月的谜底,终于揭晓\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-13 20:59 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240313210342877c9087&s=b><strong>新智驾</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>你看好乐道这个名字,以及它的首款车L60吗?编辑 | 李雨晨2021年7月,蔚来汽车被曝将推出独立于蔚来的子品牌,内部代号为阿尔卑斯(ALPS)。如今,在经过3年多的保密和蓄力之后,“乐道”这个名字终于取代了代号。3月13日,据行业爆料,蔚来第二品牌名称为乐道汽车,首款车型命名为乐道L60。从曝光的图片上来看,乐道汽车的英文名称为ONVO,N字形为品牌LOGO。从外观来看,新车车头的激光雷达变成了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240313210342877c9087&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1588":"回港中概股","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK1119":"汽车制造商","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240313210342877c9087&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2419689659","content_text":"你看好乐道这个名字,以及它的首款车L60吗?编辑 | 李雨晨2021年7月,蔚来汽车被曝将推出独立于蔚来的子品牌,内部代号为阿尔卑斯(ALPS)。如今,在经过3年多的保密和蓄力之后,“乐道”这个名字终于取代了代号。3月13日,据行业爆料,蔚来第二品牌名称为乐道汽车,首款车型命名为乐道L60。从曝光的图片上来看,乐道汽车的英文名称为ONVO,N字形为品牌LOGO。从外观来看,新车车头的激光雷达变成了两个,分布在车头两侧。前脸采用了组合大灯的设计,LED日行车灯与大灯保持平行,前脸则依旧使用了封闭式的设计,两侧的进气孔为车辆增加了一丝运动气息。侧面来看,新车则采用了溜背式设计,车身线条较为简单,门把手依旧采用了隐藏式设计,后视镜预计将采用无边框的造型。蔚来汽车董事长李斌在用户群解释了“乐道”的品牌内涵:阖家欢乐,持家有道,津津乐道。公开资料显示,蔚来汽车此前已注册了包括乐道、动量、想向等多个新商标。其中,乐道的申请日期为2022年7月13日,申请人为蔚来汽车科技(安徽)有限公司。此前的交流会上,李斌就表示,第二品牌“阿尔卑斯”的生命周期里,只有三款车型,针对家庭市场,走量为主。第一款试制车已经于去年四季度下线,今年二季度品牌将正式亮相,三季度首款车型上市,四季度开启大批量交付。首款车型为轿跑SUV,直接对标特斯拉Model Y,但成本可比Model Y低10%,且可换电。之前网上流出的谍照,测试车后挡风玻璃上贴着“比毛豆Y更棒”。而乐道的第二款车已在开模阶段,是针对大家庭的SUV,预计明年推向市场。第三款车则正在开发中。乐道的基本逻辑是针对不同规模的家庭来推出不同尺寸的车型。优势是利用蔚来已经开发的电气化和智能技术,以及基础设施。整体更关注销量,对销量的追求优于产品毛利率。但乐道在定位上存在两个值得探讨的问题,一是产品推出的时间点,二则是其与主品牌之间可能形成的竞争。根据李斌在电话会议中的表述,首款车型成本比Model Y再低10%,以Model Y后轮驱动版25.89万的售价以及特斯拉2023年18%左右的毛利率估算,阿尔卑斯首款车型的成本大约能做到19万,如果不追求毛利率,售价或将无限逼近20万。面对投资人关于蔚来降本能力的质疑,李斌认为,利用国内的供应链优势,加之蔚来通过投入研发带来的优化,阿尔卑斯只需达到每月1万台的销量即可做到这个成本。但20万级别的家用车市场,正是竞争最激烈的区间。有投资人认为,蔚来新车出牌太慢,不是特别乐观。另一方面,乐道与主品牌之间也可能存在边界不清的问题。虽然关于第二款车的相关信息还不多,但在此前的交流会中,李斌曾提到,家庭市场更容易定义清晰,安全、舒适、大空间、彩电、冰箱等等配置,也暗示了作为针对大家庭的SUV,第二款车型与理想、问界等产品的竞争关系。在电话会议中谈到两个品牌间的区分时,李斌表示,蔚来不会出低于ET5售价的车型。蔚来主品牌依然是做高端品牌。阿尔卑斯负责走量,而蔚来则以保证毛利率为主。但在实际市场竞争中,ET5和Model 3之间形成直接竞争关系。也就是说,从品牌力来看,在用户认知中,蔚来并不比特斯拉高。同样,蔚来ES6、ES8与理想L7、L8、L9,以及问界M7、M9之间也存在实际的竞争关系。而乐道同时对标Model Y以及理想与问界的定位,一定程度上也是模糊了乐道与蔚来主品牌之间的定位。按照蔚来对乐道第二款车型的定义,ES6和ES8同样也将受到影响。当然,李斌在此前的交流中也曾提到,高端品牌除了功能和体验,同时还具备感性价值。这也是蔚来和阿尔卑斯在产品定义中的区别。在销售和服务网络方面,新品牌将有其独立的销售网络,售后服务则可利用现有资源。在换电方面,主要换电站将可共享,此外蔚来也会保留部分专用换电站。李斌将其与云服务对比,称为公有云和私有云。此外,2025年,蔚来还将推出第三个品牌,针对售价20万元以内的市场,通过三个品牌的结合去覆盖更大的市场。你看好乐道这个名字,以及它的首款车L60吗?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":658183999,"gmtCreate":1682476331312,"gmtModify":1682476332813,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对","listText":"对","text":"对","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658183999","repostId":"2330031877","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621812121,"gmtCreate":1672161014764,"gmtModify":1672161015575,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621812121","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620748424,"gmtCreate":1669994608868,"gmtModify":1669994609415,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620748424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":608295113,"gmtCreate":1638746216642,"gmtModify":1638746216642,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太棒了👏👏👏","listText":"太棒了👏👏👏","text":"太棒了👏👏👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608295113","repostId":"2189057469","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603984385,"gmtCreate":1638352268576,"gmtModify":1638352268576,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"穷苦大众 电动汽车的标配","listText":"穷苦大众 电动汽车的标配","text":"穷苦大众 电动汽车的标配","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603984385","repostId":"1107102348","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107102348","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638351105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107102348?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 17:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小鹏汽车:11月交付15,613辆,同比增长270%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107102348","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月1日,小鹏汽车:11月交付15,613辆,同比增长270%。11月交付7,839辆小鹏P7,同比增长187%。年初至今共交付82,155辆智能汽车,同比增长285%。截至2021年11月底,累计","content":"<p>12月1日,小鹏汽车:11月交付15,613辆,同比增长270%。11月交付7,839辆小鹏P7,同比增长187%。年初至今共交付82,155辆智能汽车,同比增长285%。截至2021年11月底,累计交付量达到121,953辆。</p>\n<p><b>成绩单核心重点</b></p>\n<p>1、11月总交付量<b>15,613台</b>,环比<b>增长54%</b>,同比<b>增长270%</b>。</p>\n<p>2、P7交付<b>7,839台</b>,环比<b>增长30%</b>。</p>\n<p>3、G3系列产品交付<b>5,620台</b>,环比<b>增长54%</b>。</p>\n<p>4、于10月启动规模交付的P5,交付<b>2,154台</b>。</p>\n<p>5、今年前11个月累计交付量<b>82,155台</b>,同比<b>增长285%</b>。</p>\n<p>6、截至今年11月底,历史累计交付量<b>超过12万台</b>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc1ae9cf0e22263befbd3a6bf3fc2f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">随着三款主力车型的持续放量,我们的第四款全新车型——智能旗舰SUV小鹏G9也于今年11月在广州车展上正式亮相。小鹏G9是我们第一款面向全球市场开发的旗舰车型,采用领先行业的X-EEA 3.0电子电气架构和800V高压SiC平台,并将搭载XPILOT 4.0智能辅助驾驶系统,计划将于<b>明年三季度开启交付</b>。</p>\n<p>为满足日益增长的市场需求,我们正在全力克服供应链挑战,同时,也在不断加紧产能和销服网络建设。目前,广东肇庆工厂已实行双班生产,产量持续爬坡。销售和服务网络方面,到今年年底,我们计划销售门店的数量将<b>超过350家</b>,品牌超充站将<b>超过600座</b>,进一步加速拓展一二线城市以外的充电布局。</p>\n<p>数据发布后,小鹏汽车盘前涨超5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd692573dceb48aaf2d3380e99d61a34\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"644\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小鹏汽车:11月交付15,613辆,同比增长270%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小鹏汽车:11月交付15,613辆,同比增长270%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-01 17:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月1日,小鹏汽车:11月交付15,613辆,同比增长270%。11月交付7,839辆小鹏P7,同比增长187%。年初至今共交付82,155辆智能汽车,同比增长285%。截至2021年11月底,累计交付量达到121,953辆。</p>\n<p><b>成绩单核心重点</b></p>\n<p>1、11月总交付量<b>15,613台</b>,环比<b>增长54%</b>,同比<b>增长270%</b>。</p>\n<p>2、P7交付<b>7,839台</b>,环比<b>增长30%</b>。</p>\n<p>3、G3系列产品交付<b>5,620台</b>,环比<b>增长54%</b>。</p>\n<p>4、于10月启动规模交付的P5,交付<b>2,154台</b>。</p>\n<p>5、今年前11个月累计交付量<b>82,155台</b>,同比<b>增长285%</b>。</p>\n<p>6、截至今年11月底,历史累计交付量<b>超过12万台</b>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc1ae9cf0e22263befbd3a6bf3fc2f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">随着三款主力车型的持续放量,我们的第四款全新车型——智能旗舰SUV小鹏G9也于今年11月在广州车展上正式亮相。小鹏G9是我们第一款面向全球市场开发的旗舰车型,采用领先行业的X-EEA 3.0电子电气架构和800V高压SiC平台,并将搭载XPILOT 4.0智能辅助驾驶系统,计划将于<b>明年三季度开启交付</b>。</p>\n<p>为满足日益增长的市场需求,我们正在全力克服供应链挑战,同时,也在不断加紧产能和销服网络建设。目前,广东肇庆工厂已实行双班生产,产量持续爬坡。销售和服务网络方面,到今年年底,我们计划销售门店的数量将<b>超过350家</b>,品牌超充站将<b>超过600座</b>,进一步加速拓展一二线城市以外的充电布局。</p>\n<p>数据发布后,小鹏汽车盘前涨超5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd692573dceb48aaf2d3380e99d61a34\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"644\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f803d027d960e6544b634aa5c50191ab","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107102348","content_text":"12月1日,小鹏汽车:11月交付15,613辆,同比增长270%。11月交付7,839辆小鹏P7,同比增长187%。年初至今共交付82,155辆智能汽车,同比增长285%。截至2021年11月底,累计交付量达到121,953辆。\n成绩单核心重点\n1、11月总交付量15,613台,环比增长54%,同比增长270%。\n2、P7交付7,839台,环比增长30%。\n3、G3系列产品交付5,620台,环比增长54%。\n4、于10月启动规模交付的P5,交付2,154台。\n5、今年前11个月累计交付量82,155台,同比增长285%。\n6、截至今年11月底,历史累计交付量超过12万台。随着三款主力车型的持续放量,我们的第四款全新车型——智能旗舰SUV小鹏G9也于今年11月在广州车展上正式亮相。小鹏G9是我们第一款面向全球市场开发的旗舰车型,采用领先行业的X-EEA 3.0电子电气架构和800V高压SiC平台,并将搭载XPILOT 4.0智能辅助驾驶系统,计划将于明年三季度开启交付。\n为满足日益增长的市场需求,我们正在全力克服供应链挑战,同时,也在不断加紧产能和销服网络建设。目前,广东肇庆工厂已实行双班生产,产量持续爬坡。销售和服务网络方面,到今年年底,我们计划销售门店的数量将超过350家,品牌超充站将超过600座,进一步加速拓展一二线城市以外的充电布局。\n数据发布后,小鹏汽车盘前涨超5%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162384617,"gmtCreate":1624034864639,"gmtModify":1624034864639,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162384617","repostId":"2144077834","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131434664,"gmtCreate":1621872417658,"gmtModify":1621872417658,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写得乱七八糟的小报记者 ","listText":"写得乱七八糟的小报记者 ","text":"写得乱七八糟的小报记者","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131434664","repostId":"2137155417","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376752395,"gmtCreate":1619151667517,"gmtModify":1619154408571,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"想拿到别人割的便宜筹码吧 这样赤裸裸的忽悠看空","listText":"想拿到别人割的便宜筹码吧 这样赤裸裸的忽悠看空","text":"想拿到别人割的便宜筹码吧 这样赤裸裸的忽悠看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376752395","repostId":"1183187087","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305331196,"gmtCreate":1604906349315,"gmtModify":1703835034757,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"读了点书 看不懂趋势 傻傻的评论者","listText":"读了点书 看不懂趋势 傻傻的评论者","text":"读了点书 看不懂趋势 傻傻的评论者","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305331196","repostId":"1194783039","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194783039","pubTimestamp":1604904357,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194783039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-09 14:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194783039","media":"锦缎","summary":"2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:\n◆总龙头特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;\n◇过去10年始终不温不火","content":"<p>2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:</p>\n<p>◆总龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;</p>\n<p>◇过去10年始终不温不火的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>,直接暴涨4倍。</p>\n<p>而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:</p>\n<p>◆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>,曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨35倍接近4000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马和福特一众百年老店纷纷甩在身后吃灰。</p>\n<p>◇<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,上市均不过4个月有余,股价已然双双翻倍,市值已然超越广汽 、直逼吉利……</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a34a0988323090b543efc7dd1af8ab\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"625\"><span>图1:无可匹敌的造车新势力</span></p>\n<p>虽然必须要指出的是,造车新势力集体的高估值,对所有利益相关方都是好处多多:无论是一级市场的投资人,还是作为拿原始股的公司员工,没有人会不喜欢高估值,高估值意味着手中的真金白银的迅速膨胀,二级市场乐于为新能源击鼓传花,一级市场自然顺水推舟。</p>\n<p>但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。</p>\n<p>基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?</p>\n<p><i><b>01</b></i></p>\n<p><b>一道数学题</b></p>\n<p>如果单论从业绩来说,此刻的造车新势力仍然相当囊中羞涩。</p>\n<p>数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。而传统造车势力<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>20年前三季度累计销量361.32万辆。两者出货量差距以百倍计。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64eb7c92755d9e5f667b6c998c8c0b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\"><span>图2:造车新势力们的销量情况(市值统计截至11月9日)。来源:中新经纬</span></p>\n<p>显然,这样的业绩实在谈不上优秀。</p>\n<p>对任何一家车企来说,年销量十万辆以上才初步有规模效应,能够盈亏平衡;而更残酷的是,作为初创市场的电动车企,前期疯狂的投入更是让这个规模效应门槛迅速提升。</p>\n<p>特斯拉今年迄今为止的总销量为316820辆,但这样一个傲视群雄的销量,上半年净利率才仅仅为2.72%。而其他如蔚来销量3万辆左右,净利率更是惨不忍睹。</p>\n<p>利润欠奉,收入也少得可怜,想要靠业绩支持千亿估值,实在有点拿不出手。受制于骨感的现实,想要做好市值管理,必须要将业绩与估值剥离开,用A股时下流行观点就是:“不再受业绩拖累”。</p>\n<p>只要市场上的投资者不再在乎实打实的业绩,而是为可能的未来想象空间买单,那么当下无论亏损多少,生意模式是否可行,都不再是有意义的问题。</p>\n<p>这就组成了一道很简单的数学题:</p>\n<p>今年到目前为止只卖了3万多辆车的蔚来市值已经接近4000亿人民币,而卖了2万多辆车的理想市值也接近2000亿。</p>\n<p><b>造车新势力每卖一辆车就相当于1000万市值。与之对比,上汽集团前三季度造车361万辆,市值3137亿,每造一辆车市值对应8万左右。</b></p>\n<p>具体而言:</p>\n<p><b>【1】卖一辆亏一辆</b></p>\n<p>此刻,曾经A股白酒股出现过的“卖酒不如倒酒涨市值快”的谜题,在造车新势力身上重现江湖:</p>\n<p>对造车新势力来说,卖一辆车价值最多几十万,但如果每卖一辆车就可以换超过1000万市值,这样1:20的回报率情况下,最为滑稽但又最为理性的选择是:<b>把车白送给消费者,提升估值反而是最快的。</b></p>\n<p>讲真,把车赔送出去这个想法,造车新势力并不是没有尝试过,实际上早就已经是基本操作了。</p>\n<p>拿蔚来举例:消费者每购买一辆新能源车,国家给新能源车消费者都要免税+补贴,但即便如此,2018年、2019年,蔚来卖车净利率始终保持在-100%以上,分别为-194%和-144%;好在今年硬体建设资本支出按下暂停键,销量的上扬,使其净利率来到-56%左右。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d92dd38f6190c19f8e6ee292eb112b\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>图3:蔚来汽车的过去数年财务摘要。来源:Wind金融终端</span></p>\n<p>也就是说,回顾迄今为止的蔚来造车历史,平均的亏损程度,真正到了字面意义上的卖一辆亏一辆的地步:将过去3年平摊,每1亿的营收都代表着近乎近一亿的亏损,每卖一辆就代表又亏损了一辆。</p>\n<p>这样大规模的亏损,蔚来一方面解释为,是规模效应还没有到来的缘故;另一方面,诸多匪夷所思的操作也是重要原因。</p>\n<p>来看蔚来这些年推出的亏损大礼包——比如在2019年8月宣布为所有ES8和ES6首任车主开启“终身免费换电”的服务。</p>\n<p>要知道,早在2013年,特斯拉就推出了换电模式,之后特斯拉舍弃换电转而专注发展快充技术,其中最大的原因便是费用问题。</p>\n<p>特斯拉的换电服务定价,甚至比汽油车加油还要贵,基本上在60-80美金之间,,换电成本的惊人之高最终让特斯拉选择放弃。</p>\n<p>而是为对比,蔚来不仅对老车主提供的是终身免费换电服务,除此之外,选择换电模式的蔚来车用户,还可以在补贴后的价格基础上再减去7万元购买蔚来电动车。</p>\n<p>可以想象,这种免费换电模式就一路亏损,规模不经济让造车新势力的单车亏损进一步提升。</p>\n<p>这个减免+亏损的速度,即便背后站着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>这种财大气粗的金主,蔚来也是支撑不住的。终于,到今年8月20日,这家造车新势力终于宣布将对定金2万元用户免费换电权益进行调整,免费换电将于2020年10月12日起宣告中止。</p>\n<p><b>【2】用亏损赚估值</b></p>\n<p>当然,作为一名乐观的投资者,你可以说这是“倒吃甘蔗,一节更比一节甜”,就像你说它是“中国版特斯拉一样”,未来未至,谁能证伪呢?</p>\n<p>不过即便如此,造车新势力们“白送”的古怪行为背后原因还是显而易见的——这源于当前疯狂的市场赋予新能源车企业的定价模型:</p>\n<p>与传统汽车的周期股形象不同,市场对新能源车企的广阔未来充满想象,这背后的算计是,尽管造车新势力当下销量业绩欠奉,但长期赛道和高增长的逻辑没有打破,眼下的亏损并不重要,能够做出销量增长的趋势才是最重要的。</p>\n<p>(这里会有投资者反驳说,理想汽车并非如此,它上市前即实现了盈利。但如果你了解增程技术的历史与成本,就明白这种车型本应归到传统车企行列。如是,你不妨再去对比下本土传统车企7座SUV的定价,就理解销量有限、定价31.98万/辆的理想ONE为何有利润了。)</p>\n<p>因此,连卖带“送”,用最小的成本卖出最多的车,做出最好的增长曲线就成了最好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。亏钱大礼包只是业绩上亏损100%,但市值上却可以赚2000%。</b>这道数学题在新势力们市值管理战术本中,早就算得清清楚楚。</p>\n<p><i><b>02</b></i></p>\n<p><b>一道文学题</b></p>\n<p>对于造车新势力来说,一旦销量直线上升,后续概率性问题难免越来越多。此时数学和心理学力所不能及之处,使得学习遣词造句的必要性就大大凸现出来。</p>\n<p>与很多新经济前辈一样,造车新势力们也十分热衷用新词来改变叙事,词用的玄妙,让投资者更认定这家公司是代表了新能源和人类的未来——哪怕产品线有缺陷,常常召回,只要你代表人类未来,你的估值杠杆就是1:20。</p>\n<p>比如:租电池叫Battery as a service(BaaS),这都已经不算什么汉语创新;理想给一辆混动车加一个增程式的名字混入新能源方阵,也仅仅是造车新势力的汉语言文学的小插曲。</p>\n<p>截至目前,对汉语言文学贡献最大的案例来自于特斯拉和理想:车辆出现断轴情况之后,特斯拉声称,是中国用户对车辆“滥用”,而不是质量问题;理想汽车则在断轴事故发生后,试图将车辆召回定义为“硬件升级”。</p>\n<p><b>在攸关人命的事故面前,新势力匪夷所思的脑回路令人毛骨悚然。</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe04f17272b509d8d23acbb0251673c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"798\"><span>图3:理想ONE碰撞事故导致断轴。来源:网络</span></p>\n<p>好在除了赚的盆满钵满的狂热投资者粉丝,市场中还有冷静的监管者:国家市场监管总局网站11月6日公布召回信息,理想汽车自即日起,召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车,共计10469辆。</p>\n<p><i><b>03</b></i></p>\n<p><b>树不会长到天上</b></p>\n<p>“造车唯唯诺诺,造词重拳出击”的造车新势力,在它们当前的市值管理战术本里,写满了新数学和新文学的笔记,一切都为了1:20的市值增长杠杆。</p>\n<p>但树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏和理想当然也不能。</p>\n<p>对于沉浮于赚钱效应五彩泡沫里快一年的投资者而言,不止是2020年,2021年更要对这些新能源车企好一些——因为它们很大概率将比较难过:</p>\n<p>2020年造词这种文学幻术已经被戳破;及至2021年,随着那些有真实业绩的龙头——特斯拉和比亚迪们盈利增速的夯实,<b>电动车企的估值模型,势必将逐渐由1:20倍回报率的PS(市销率)模式转向PE(市盈率)</b>,<b>届时故事再好(前有国家产业意志开道,背靠BTAM金主护航)也要有人买单</b>。</p>\n<p>平心而论,在一波牛市中,究竟谁在裸泳是根本看不出来的。但如果始终看不出来谁将是这场宴会买单者,也许我们应该清楚意识到,自己就是买单的那个人。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-09 14:45 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RcBaiCeJIK1AYcQ9nhGPuQ><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:\n◆总龙头特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;\n◇过去10年始终不温不火的比亚迪,直接暴涨4倍。\n而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:\n◆蔚来,曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨35倍接近4000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RcBaiCeJIK1AYcQ9nhGPuQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4511499bacecdc387fe2338ba2c16251","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份","LI":"理想汽车","00175":"吉利汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RcBaiCeJIK1AYcQ9nhGPuQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194783039","content_text":"2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:\n◆总龙头特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;\n◇过去10年始终不温不火的比亚迪,直接暴涨4倍。\n而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:\n◆蔚来,曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨35倍接近4000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马和福特一众百年老店纷纷甩在身后吃灰。\n◇小鹏汽车与理想汽车,上市均不过4个月有余,股价已然双双翻倍,市值已然超越广汽 、直逼吉利……\n图1:无可匹敌的造车新势力\n虽然必须要指出的是,造车新势力集体的高估值,对所有利益相关方都是好处多多:无论是一级市场的投资人,还是作为拿原始股的公司员工,没有人会不喜欢高估值,高估值意味着手中的真金白银的迅速膨胀,二级市场乐于为新能源击鼓传花,一级市场自然顺水推舟。\n但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。\n基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?\n01\n一道数学题\n如果单论从业绩来说,此刻的造车新势力仍然相当囊中羞涩。\n数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。而传统造车势力上汽集团20年前三季度累计销量361.32万辆。两者出货量差距以百倍计。\n图2:造车新势力们的销量情况(市值统计截至11月9日)。来源:中新经纬\n显然,这样的业绩实在谈不上优秀。\n对任何一家车企来说,年销量十万辆以上才初步有规模效应,能够盈亏平衡;而更残酷的是,作为初创市场的电动车企,前期疯狂的投入更是让这个规模效应门槛迅速提升。\n特斯拉今年迄今为止的总销量为316820辆,但这样一个傲视群雄的销量,上半年净利率才仅仅为2.72%。而其他如蔚来销量3万辆左右,净利率更是惨不忍睹。\n利润欠奉,收入也少得可怜,想要靠业绩支持千亿估值,实在有点拿不出手。受制于骨感的现实,想要做好市值管理,必须要将业绩与估值剥离开,用A股时下流行观点就是:“不再受业绩拖累”。\n只要市场上的投资者不再在乎实打实的业绩,而是为可能的未来想象空间买单,那么当下无论亏损多少,生意模式是否可行,都不再是有意义的问题。\n这就组成了一道很简单的数学题:\n今年到目前为止只卖了3万多辆车的蔚来市值已经接近4000亿人民币,而卖了2万多辆车的理想市值也接近2000亿。\n造车新势力每卖一辆车就相当于1000万市值。与之对比,上汽集团前三季度造车361万辆,市值3137亿,每造一辆车市值对应8万左右。\n具体而言:\n【1】卖一辆亏一辆\n此刻,曾经A股白酒股出现过的“卖酒不如倒酒涨市值快”的谜题,在造车新势力身上重现江湖:\n对造车新势力来说,卖一辆车价值最多几十万,但如果每卖一辆车就可以换超过1000万市值,这样1:20的回报率情况下,最为滑稽但又最为理性的选择是:把车白送给消费者,提升估值反而是最快的。\n讲真,把车赔送出去这个想法,造车新势力并不是没有尝试过,实际上早就已经是基本操作了。\n拿蔚来举例:消费者每购买一辆新能源车,国家给新能源车消费者都要免税+补贴,但即便如此,2018年、2019年,蔚来卖车净利率始终保持在-100%以上,分别为-194%和-144%;好在今年硬体建设资本支出按下暂停键,销量的上扬,使其净利率来到-56%左右。\n图3:蔚来汽车的过去数年财务摘要。来源:Wind金融终端\n也就是说,回顾迄今为止的蔚来造车历史,平均的亏损程度,真正到了字面意义上的卖一辆亏一辆的地步:将过去3年平摊,每1亿的营收都代表着近乎近一亿的亏损,每卖一辆就代表又亏损了一辆。\n这样大规模的亏损,蔚来一方面解释为,是规模效应还没有到来的缘故;另一方面,诸多匪夷所思的操作也是重要原因。\n来看蔚来这些年推出的亏损大礼包——比如在2019年8月宣布为所有ES8和ES6首任车主开启“终身免费换电”的服务。\n要知道,早在2013年,特斯拉就推出了换电模式,之后特斯拉舍弃换电转而专注发展快充技术,其中最大的原因便是费用问题。\n特斯拉的换电服务定价,甚至比汽油车加油还要贵,基本上在60-80美金之间,,换电成本的惊人之高最终让特斯拉选择放弃。\n而是为对比,蔚来不仅对老车主提供的是终身免费换电服务,除此之外,选择换电模式的蔚来车用户,还可以在补贴后的价格基础上再减去7万元购买蔚来电动车。\n可以想象,这种免费换电模式就一路亏损,规模不经济让造车新势力的单车亏损进一步提升。\n这个减免+亏损的速度,即便背后站着腾讯和宁德时代这种财大气粗的金主,蔚来也是支撑不住的。终于,到今年8月20日,这家造车新势力终于宣布将对定金2万元用户免费换电权益进行调整,免费换电将于2020年10月12日起宣告中止。\n【2】用亏损赚估值\n当然,作为一名乐观的投资者,你可以说这是“倒吃甘蔗,一节更比一节甜”,就像你说它是“中国版特斯拉一样”,未来未至,谁能证伪呢?\n不过即便如此,造车新势力们“白送”的古怪行为背后原因还是显而易见的——这源于当前疯狂的市场赋予新能源车企业的定价模型:\n与传统汽车的周期股形象不同,市场对新能源车企的广阔未来充满想象,这背后的算计是,尽管造车新势力当下销量业绩欠奉,但长期赛道和高增长的逻辑没有打破,眼下的亏损并不重要,能够做出销量增长的趋势才是最重要的。\n(这里会有投资者反驳说,理想汽车并非如此,它上市前即实现了盈利。但如果你了解增程技术的历史与成本,就明白这种车型本应归到传统车企行列。如是,你不妨再去对比下本土传统车企7座SUV的定价,就理解销量有限、定价31.98万/辆的理想ONE为何有利润了。)\n因此,连卖带“送”,用最小的成本卖出最多的车,做出最好的增长曲线就成了最好的选择。\n每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。亏钱大礼包只是业绩上亏损100%,但市值上却可以赚2000%。这道数学题在新势力们市值管理战术本中,早就算得清清楚楚。\n02\n一道文学题\n对于造车新势力来说,一旦销量直线上升,后续概率性问题难免越来越多。此时数学和心理学力所不能及之处,使得学习遣词造句的必要性就大大凸现出来。\n与很多新经济前辈一样,造车新势力们也十分热衷用新词来改变叙事,词用的玄妙,让投资者更认定这家公司是代表了新能源和人类的未来——哪怕产品线有缺陷,常常召回,只要你代表人类未来,你的估值杠杆就是1:20。\n比如:租电池叫Battery as a service(BaaS),这都已经不算什么汉语创新;理想给一辆混动车加一个增程式的名字混入新能源方阵,也仅仅是造车新势力的汉语言文学的小插曲。\n截至目前,对汉语言文学贡献最大的案例来自于特斯拉和理想:车辆出现断轴情况之后,特斯拉声称,是中国用户对车辆“滥用”,而不是质量问题;理想汽车则在断轴事故发生后,试图将车辆召回定义为“硬件升级”。\n在攸关人命的事故面前,新势力匪夷所思的脑回路令人毛骨悚然。\n图3:理想ONE碰撞事故导致断轴。来源:网络\n好在除了赚的盆满钵满的狂热投资者粉丝,市场中还有冷静的监管者:国家市场监管总局网站11月6日公布召回信息,理想汽车自即日起,召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车,共计10469辆。\n03\n树不会长到天上\n“造车唯唯诺诺,造词重拳出击”的造车新势力,在它们当前的市值管理战术本里,写满了新数学和新文学的笔记,一切都为了1:20的市值增长杠杆。\n但树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏和理想当然也不能。\n对于沉浮于赚钱效应五彩泡沫里快一年的投资者而言,不止是2020年,2021年更要对这些新能源车企好一些——因为它们很大概率将比较难过:\n2020年造词这种文学幻术已经被戳破;及至2021年,随着那些有真实业绩的龙头——特斯拉和比亚迪们盈利增速的夯实,电动车企的估值模型,势必将逐渐由1:20倍回报率的PS(市销率)模式转向PE(市盈率),届时故事再好(前有国家产业意志开道,背靠BTAM金主护航)也要有人买单。\n平心而论,在一波牛市中,究竟谁在裸泳是根本看不出来的。但如果始终看不出来谁将是这场宴会买单者,也许我们应该清楚意识到,自己就是买单的那个人。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302781949,"gmtCreate":1604728870881,"gmtModify":1703834659989,"author":{"id":"3553751482404122","authorId":"3553751482404122","name":"点石成金者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553751482404122","idStr":"3553751482404122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"绝对值","listText":"绝对值","text":"绝对值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302781949","repostId":"2081825979","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2081825979","pubTimestamp":1604703960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2081825979?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-07 07:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来发布100度电池 李斌终于完成了5年前的目标","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2081825979","media":"盖世汽车网","summary":"11月6日,蔚来终于发布了100度电池升级方案。这在蔚来的发展史上是一个很重要的时刻。对于蔚来来说,终于打通了其在2015年就提出的「车电分离、电池租用、可充可换可升级」的目标;对于车主来说,这是一项...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>\r\n 原标题:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>发布100度电池,李斌终于完成了5年前的目标\r\n </p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=106.NIO&imageType=k&token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p> 11月6日,<span>蔚来</span><span></span>终于发布了100度电池升级方案。这在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/us/NIO.html?Market=NYSE\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">蔚来</span>的发展史上是一个很重要的时刻。</p><div></div>\n<p> 对于<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/us/NIO.html?Market=NYSE\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">蔚来</span>来说,终于打通了其在2015年就提出的「车电分离、电池租用、可充可换可升级」的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/目标\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">目标</span>;对于车主来说,这是一项惠及所有蔚来用户的升级方案,新老车主在此刻的心情是一样的,老车主应该感到更兴奋。</p>\n<p> 因为完成100度电池的升级后,新款ES8的续航里程可以到580公里,ES6可以到610公里,EC6则提升至615公里。这一方案使得蔚来汽车的续航里程全面跨越600公里的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/市场\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">市场</span>主流水准。</p>\n<p> <span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/李斌\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">李斌</span>说:「升级不等于更换,因为它涉及所有新老用户,同时做到了按月或者按年升级,还在<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/价格\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">价格</span>上有一定的优势」。</p>\n<p> 那么,蔚来这次发布的100度电池,到底成色几何?</p>\n<p> <strong>新老用户的集体狂欢</strong></p>\n<p> 蔚来这次发布的100度电池的升级方案,包含永久升级和灵活升级两大方案。李斌说,每一个方案都经过了充分的市场<span>调研</span>和倾听用户的声音。</p>\n<p> 首先看永久升级方案。</p>\n<p> 对于非BaaS用户,需要一次性支付升级费用58000元,永久升级电池为100度(支持积分支付),为使选装84KWh电池的用户有更好的体验,84KWh到100KWh的价格也将进一步下调(支持积分支付)。</p>\n<p> 对于BaaS用户,车价立减128000元,每月需要缴纳1480元的电池租用<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/服务\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">服务</span>费。需要指出的是,升级完成后的下个账单月开始,电池租用服务费将按照100度电池计算(升级后不再持换租70KWh电池包)。</p>\n<p> 此外,BaaS用户升级100KWh电池包时,将收取一笔3000元<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/一次性服务\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">一次性服务</span>费(100度配置器上线前,已提车用户及已支付大定并正常排产提车的用户,免收一次性服务费)。</p>\n<p> 据悉,永久升级100KWh电池包服务将于11月7日10点正式上线车商城,并预计将于2020年12月开始,按订单顺序交付。</p>\n<p> 再来看灵活升级方案。</p>\n<p> 70KWh升级到100KWh,按月升级的费用时880元,按年升级的费用是7980元。其中,ES8创始版用户及2019年3月31日前支付大定的ES8用户,首任车主可以享受电池6折升级权益,权益可用于永久升级或者灵活升级。比如,以上车主选择按年升级,则每年的升级费用不到为4788元。</p>\n<p> 需要指出的是,如在永久升级时使用了6折权益,则该电池6折升级权益终止;如未使用永久升级6折权益,则灵活升级6折权益终生有效。如果享有电池6折升级权益的用户置换了蔚来车辆,则可以保留6折升级权益,用于置换后的车辆进行升级服务。</p>\n<p> 据悉,70KWh用户按年灵活升级至100KWh服务将于2021年2月开始预订,3月开始提供升级服务;按月灵活升级服务将于2021年4月开始提供升级服务。</p>\n<center><img src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/A203TA68O4HG5C2M9RMJ\" title=\"蔚来,电池,换电,蔚来\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> <strong>100度电池先进在哪?</strong></p>\n<p> 蔚来电池系统负责人表示,蔚来研发100度电池的初衷,不只是扩充电量和续航里程,更重要的是要<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/保证\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">保证</span>电池能够安全可靠的运转。在这一过程中,蔚来和电池合作伙伴一起申请了超过300项的技术专利。攻克了现阶段方壳电芯的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/工艺\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">工艺</span>和技术难点。</p>\n<p> 有四个技术特点可以保证让车主安心升级。</p>\n<p> 第一,无热蔓延安全设计,也就是电池包一旦出现热失控之后,只会冒烟不会起火。这项设计的运转逻辑是:热失控传感器实时监测电池包内部的压力,如果压力一旦发生异常,就会唤醒整车。它相当于一个报警人;第二步,车上的水冷系统会主动打开开始降温,相当于消防员开始灭火。蔚来表示,这是改变方壳电芯很重要的两个步骤。以前的电池包没有报警,也没有灭火的设计,完全靠电池自救很难。</p>\n<p> 蔚来还跟合作伙伴研发了一个很先进的隔热材料,隔热系数几倍于原有的材料。所以,有了这样一个相当于<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/防火墙\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">防火墙</span>的设计,可以保证即使这辆车发生热失控,也不会殃及周围的车辆。为了进一步保证不会殃及无辜,蔚来还设计了一个无障碍烟道,可以在30秒内排出所有的烟雾。该项设计利用电池包在出现问题时的膨胀效应,利用膨胀后的空间快速排烟。</p>\n<p> 此外,为了防止电池出现时突然爆炸,蔚来在该电池包设计了一个防高压拉弧,以防止电池发生短路。</p>\n<p> 第二,全天候的温控,解决了以前被人所诟病的冬天和夏天续航较短的问题。在这一代系统中,蔚来利用标定的方式建立了精密的电芯模型,找到了其中的一些痛点,将夏季的续航里程提升了10%,冬季的续航里程提升了7%。而且把用来加热的能量同时优化了30%。</p>\n<p> 第三,高度集成化的CTP(Cell to Pack),将一个个电芯进行堆叠,取消了很多结构件,将整个工艺的难点做得更可靠。在保证了电池包的防冲击、震动、碰撞等能力没有降低的前提下,该项技术提升了19.8%的体积利用率、37%的能量密度、17.5%的热<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/管理\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">管理</span>性能、40%的制造装配简化。这也就是100度的电池包保持相同大小、基本一样重量的原因所在。</p>\n<p> 第四,端与云融合的BMS,这是蔚来发挥自己在云端数据方面的优势。今后,蔚来将追踪每一台车、每一个电池的使用数据,然后给出特定的标定参数。通过云端推送的方式,帮助车主实现最优解:最佳的续航里程、最好的热管理,最好的电池性能。</p>\n<p> 李斌表示,100度电池包有三个明显的优势。其一是拥有了更长的续航里程;其二是更加安全可靠;其三是将「可升级」变成现实。这也是蔚来<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/商业\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">商业</span>模式中的最后一个环节。100度电池,让蔚来终于跑通了自己搭建的商业逻辑。</p>\n<p> <strong>15个字体现蔚来的商业体系</strong></p>\n<p> 李斌在发布会现场透露,目前蔚来汽车的平均<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/销售\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">销售</span><span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/单价\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">单价</span>比<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>中国的价格要贵15万<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/人民币\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">人民币</span>左右。所以,蔚来的用户和<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/us/TSLA.html?Market=NASDAQ\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>的用户已经不是一类用户,在<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/品牌\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">品牌</span>区间上已经有很显著的区分。这是对蔚来立志要做高端电动汽车的回报。</p>\n<p> 蔚来的6万多名用户,目前已经累计行驶了11.58亿公里的路程,基本跑遍了中国的每一个城市、每一个角落。如此庞大的用户数据,也在反哺蔚来的换电运营体系。</p>\n<p> 截止目前,蔚来已经完成了118万次的换电服务,已经证明了换电这件事不仅技术可行,更重要的是确实受到了众多用户的欢迎。一个更直观的数据是,平均每18秒就有一辆蔚来从换电站满电出发。但是这还不够,因为在北京和上海,已经在高峰时段有排队换电的现象出现了。</p>\n<p> 所以,蔚来目前正在着手加快换电站的部署。蔚来在全国已经建成了158座换电站,二代换电站也在加快开发中。据蔚来汽车联合创始人、<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/总裁\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">总裁</span>秦力洪透露,蔚来计划明年在全国范围内布局300座以上的第二代换电站。</p>\n<p> 换电,只是蔚来整个商业体系中的一个环节。如今随着100度电池的发布,蔚来终于打通了其商业体系的完整闭环。</p>\n<p> 李斌表示,蔚来在2015年从设计新车、设计<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/商业模式\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">商业模式</span>开始,就提出了一个15字目标:「车电分离、电池租用,可充可换可升级」。这15个字,包括了汽车设计、加电能源服务体系,以及商业模式的各个环节。「蔚来的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/产品\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">产品</span>和服务体系就是围绕着这15个字去设计的,今天随着可升级成为现实,蔚来终于打通了自己的商业模式的闭环」。李斌兴奋地表示。</p>\n<p> 跑通了商业闭环的蔚来,值不值得期待一把?</p><p>(文章来源:盖世汽车网)</p>\n<p>\r\n (责任编辑:DF537)\r\n </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来发布100度电池 李斌终于完成了5年前的目标</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来发布100度电池 李斌终于完成了5年前的目标\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-07 07:06 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202011071692676329.html><strong>盖世汽车网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:蔚来发布100度电池,李斌终于完成了5年前的目标\r\n \n 11月6日,蔚来终于发布了100度电池升级方案。这在蔚来的发展史上是一个很重要的时刻。\n 对于蔚来来说,终于打通了其在2015年就提出的「车电分离、电池租用、可充可换可升级」的目标;对于车主来说,这是一项惠及所有蔚来用户的升级方案,新老车主在此刻的心情是一样的,老车主应该感到更兴奋。\n 因为完成100度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202011071692676329.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090cc485ea4ba6d267489389e83608b","relate_stocks":{"BITA":"易车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202011071692676329.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2081825979","content_text":"原标题:蔚来发布100度电池,李斌终于完成了5年前的目标\r\n \n 11月6日,蔚来终于发布了100度电池升级方案。这在蔚来的发展史上是一个很重要的时刻。\n 对于蔚来来说,终于打通了其在2015年就提出的「车电分离、电池租用、可充可换可升级」的目标;对于车主来说,这是一项惠及所有蔚来用户的升级方案,新老车主在此刻的心情是一样的,老车主应该感到更兴奋。\n 因为完成100度电池的升级后,新款ES8的续航里程可以到580公里,ES6可以到610公里,EC6则提升至615公里。这一方案使得蔚来汽车的续航里程全面跨越600公里的市场主流水准。\n 李斌说:「升级不等于更换,因为它涉及所有新老用户,同时做到了按月或者按年升级,还在价格上有一定的优势」。\n 那么,蔚来这次发布的100度电池,到底成色几何?\n 新老用户的集体狂欢\n 蔚来这次发布的100度电池的升级方案,包含永久升级和灵活升级两大方案。李斌说,每一个方案都经过了充分的市场调研和倾听用户的声音。\n 首先看永久升级方案。\n 对于非BaaS用户,需要一次性支付升级费用58000元,永久升级电池为100度(支持积分支付),为使选装84KWh电池的用户有更好的体验,84KWh到100KWh的价格也将进一步下调(支持积分支付)。\n 对于BaaS用户,车价立减128000元,每月需要缴纳1480元的电池租用服务费。需要指出的是,升级完成后的下个账单月开始,电池租用服务费将按照100度电池计算(升级后不再持换租70KWh电池包)。\n 此外,BaaS用户升级100KWh电池包时,将收取一笔3000元一次性服务费(100度配置器上线前,已提车用户及已支付大定并正常排产提车的用户,免收一次性服务费)。\n 据悉,永久升级100KWh电池包服务将于11月7日10点正式上线车商城,并预计将于2020年12月开始,按订单顺序交付。\n 再来看灵活升级方案。\n 70KWh升级到100KWh,按月升级的费用时880元,按年升级的费用是7980元。其中,ES8创始版用户及2019年3月31日前支付大定的ES8用户,首任车主可以享受电池6折升级权益,权益可用于永久升级或者灵活升级。比如,以上车主选择按年升级,则每年的升级费用不到为4788元。\n 需要指出的是,如在永久升级时使用了6折权益,则该电池6折升级权益终止;如未使用永久升级6折权益,则灵活升级6折权益终生有效。如果享有电池6折升级权益的用户置换了蔚来车辆,则可以保留6折升级权益,用于置换后的车辆进行升级服务。\n 据悉,70KWh用户按年灵活升级至100KWh服务将于2021年2月开始预订,3月开始提供升级服务;按月灵活升级服务将于2021年4月开始提供升级服务。\n 100度电池先进在哪?\n 蔚来电池系统负责人表示,蔚来研发100度电池的初衷,不只是扩充电量和续航里程,更重要的是要保证电池能够安全可靠的运转。在这一过程中,蔚来和电池合作伙伴一起申请了超过300项的技术专利。攻克了现阶段方壳电芯的工艺和技术难点。\n 有四个技术特点可以保证让车主安心升级。\n 第一,无热蔓延安全设计,也就是电池包一旦出现热失控之后,只会冒烟不会起火。这项设计的运转逻辑是:热失控传感器实时监测电池包内部的压力,如果压力一旦发生异常,就会唤醒整车。它相当于一个报警人;第二步,车上的水冷系统会主动打开开始降温,相当于消防员开始灭火。蔚来表示,这是改变方壳电芯很重要的两个步骤。以前的电池包没有报警,也没有灭火的设计,完全靠电池自救很难。\n 蔚来还跟合作伙伴研发了一个很先进的隔热材料,隔热系数几倍于原有的材料。所以,有了这样一个相当于防火墙的设计,可以保证即使这辆车发生热失控,也不会殃及周围的车辆。为了进一步保证不会殃及无辜,蔚来还设计了一个无障碍烟道,可以在30秒内排出所有的烟雾。该项设计利用电池包在出现问题时的膨胀效应,利用膨胀后的空间快速排烟。\n 此外,为了防止电池出现时突然爆炸,蔚来在该电池包设计了一个防高压拉弧,以防止电池发生短路。\n 第二,全天候的温控,解决了以前被人所诟病的冬天和夏天续航较短的问题。在这一代系统中,蔚来利用标定的方式建立了精密的电芯模型,找到了其中的一些痛点,将夏季的续航里程提升了10%,冬季的续航里程提升了7%。而且把用来加热的能量同时优化了30%。\n 第三,高度集成化的CTP(Cell to Pack),将一个个电芯进行堆叠,取消了很多结构件,将整个工艺的难点做得更可靠。在保证了电池包的防冲击、震动、碰撞等能力没有降低的前提下,该项技术提升了19.8%的体积利用率、37%的能量密度、17.5%的热管理性能、40%的制造装配简化。这也就是100度的电池包保持相同大小、基本一样重量的原因所在。\n 第四,端与云融合的BMS,这是蔚来发挥自己在云端数据方面的优势。今后,蔚来将追踪每一台车、每一个电池的使用数据,然后给出特定的标定参数。通过云端推送的方式,帮助车主实现最优解:最佳的续航里程、最好的热管理,最好的电池性能。\n 李斌表示,100度电池包有三个明显的优势。其一是拥有了更长的续航里程;其二是更加安全可靠;其三是将「可升级」变成现实。这也是蔚来商业模式中的最后一个环节。100度电池,让蔚来终于跑通了自己搭建的商业逻辑。\n 15个字体现蔚来的商业体系\n 李斌在发布会现场透露,目前蔚来汽车的平均销售单价比特斯拉中国的价格要贵15万人民币左右。所以,蔚来的用户和特斯拉的用户已经不是一类用户,在品牌区间上已经有很显著的区分。这是对蔚来立志要做高端电动汽车的回报。\n 蔚来的6万多名用户,目前已经累计行驶了11.58亿公里的路程,基本跑遍了中国的每一个城市、每一个角落。如此庞大的用户数据,也在反哺蔚来的换电运营体系。\n 截止目前,蔚来已经完成了118万次的换电服务,已经证明了换电这件事不仅技术可行,更重要的是确实受到了众多用户的欢迎。一个更直观的数据是,平均每18秒就有一辆蔚来从换电站满电出发。但是这还不够,因为在北京和上海,已经在高峰时段有排队换电的现象出现了。\n 所以,蔚来目前正在着手加快换电站的部署。蔚来在全国已经建成了158座换电站,二代换电站也在加快开发中。据蔚来汽车联合创始人、总裁秦力洪透露,蔚来计划明年在全国范围内布局300座以上的第二代换电站。\n 换电,只是蔚来整个商业体系中的一个环节。如今随着100度电池的发布,蔚来终于打通了其商业体系的完整闭环。\n 李斌表示,蔚来在2015年从设计新车、设计商业模式开始,就提出了一个15字目标:「车电分离、电池租用,可充可换可升级」。这15个字,包括了汽车设计、加电能源服务体系,以及商业模式的各个环节。「蔚来的产品和服务体系就是围绕着这15个字去设计的,今天随着可升级成为现实,蔚来终于打通了自己的商业模式的闭环」。李斌兴奋地表示。\n 跑通了商业闭环的蔚来,值不值得期待一把?(文章来源:盖世汽车网)\n\r\n 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