Will616的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Will616

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0勋章

2020-10-19

$小米集团-W(01810)$后悔在13元价位只买入了5000股

2020-10-19

$小米集团-W(01810)$20.5可入

2020-10-15

实盘更新今日浮亏100000人民币，继续持股$美团点评-W(03690)$$小米集团-W(01810)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$

2020-10-06

$美团点评-W(03690)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$$小米集团-W(01810)$持股过节实盘更新

2020-10-05

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$阿里巴巴同意与全球最大免税零售商Dufry在中国组建合资企业

2020-09-30

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$$美团点评-W(03690)$$蔚来(NIO)$持股过节啦，晒一张实盘资金图

2020-09-25

$美团点评-W(03690)$9.29的特别股东大会有什么消息吗

2020-09-16

$美团点评-W(03690)$这次得到个教训，不能把子弹全部打光，之前买太多仅有的钱在235价位只够补300股$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$已经没资金加仓了

2020-09-15

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$很可能会推出智能穿戴新业务并结合$阿里健康(00241)$布局未来运动健康医疗领域以上仅个人猜测[开心]

2020-09-04

$美团点评-W(03690)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$2天浮亏150000人民币

2020-09-01

$小米集团-W(01810)$$农夫山泉(09633)$搬运工上市后小米会不会大幅回调[疑问]

2020-08-28

$小米集团-W(01810)$没想到能涨这么多

2020-08-24

$美团点评-W(03690)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$新老交替，后浪推前浪？

2020-08-06

科技人才薪酬应该不设上限

中芯创始人张汝京：下一代半导体不需要大投资，最关键是人才

2020-07-31

$中芯国际(00981)$静候中报

2020-07-28

$中芯国际(00981)$中长期坚定看好

2020-07-23

$中芯国际(00981)$根据第一季财报里提到的信息，8月公布的第二季财报有望继续实现盈利，个人建议继续持股待涨

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>持股过节啦，晒一张实盘资金图","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$$美团点评-W(03690)$$蔚来(NIO)$持股过节啦，晒一张实盘资金图","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72a064cd8baf1f2656652f5ce247d3a","width":"1216","height":"1873"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977359852","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479960647307143","authorId":"3479960647307143","name":"静静的百合May","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f6d7ad213fd2b93063f38c8fdb1c0d34","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479960647307143","idStr":"3479960647307143"},"content":"美股过节？","text":"美股过节？","html":"美股过节？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974872860,"gmtCreate":1601022033950,"gmtModify":1703823365563,"author":{"id":"3551181125255869","authorId":"3551181125255869","name":"Will616","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551181125255869","idStr":"3551181125255869"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>已经没资金加仓了","text":"$美团点评-W(03690)$这次得到个教训，不能把子弹全部打光，之前买太多仅有的钱在235价位只够补300股$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$已经没资金加仓了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77c5b5bc1863d08806017eed94f501ac","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972203861","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3447283419880920","authorId":"3447283419880920","name":"马师傅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eb78616d4f76a0528d9b23bb22ff5f5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3447283419880920","idStr":"3447283419880920"},"content":"这个是不是要订阅才有实时行情啊","text":"这个是不是要订阅才有实时行情啊","html":"这个是不是要订阅才有实时行情啊"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972166328,"gmtCreate":1600156057664,"gmtModify":1703820497293,"author":{"id":"3551181125255869","authorId":"3551181125255869","name":"Will616","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551181125255869","idStr":"3551181125255869"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中芯创始人张汝京：下一代半导体不需要大投资，最关键是人才","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2057316515","media":"极客公园","summary":"作者|万鸣宇 来源|极客公园（ID：geekpark）时下，美国总统特朗普试图封禁TikTok一事仍在发酵，中国科技企业的全球化进程该何去何从？在中国第三代导体发展机遇交流峰会上，原中芯国际创始人兼","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200806171156174v235p87bpevydo4\"/><p>作者|万鸣宇 来源|极客公园（ID：geekpark）</p><p>时下，美国总统特朗普试图封禁TikTok一事仍在发酵，中国科技企业的全球化进程该何去何从？</p><p>在中国第三代导体发展机遇交流峰会上，原<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>创始人兼 CEO 张汝京认为，类似的限制由来已久，各界美国政府对此的态度各有不同，「特朗普对中国定的策略是最严苛的」。</p><p>针对以 5G 通讯为主的中国技术，美国政府大面积打击和制约又是什么原因？</p><p>张汝京回答，当美国发现中国对其造成的竞争压力很大时，美国的行政负责人就开始要打击，如果公平竞争赢不了，它就会采取行政的方式。他也特别提到：「美国对中国制约的能力没有那么强，但是我们不能掉以轻心。」</p><p>张汝京曾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>工作了 20 年，2004 年 4 月来到上海创办<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>并担任 CEO，2009 年 11 月宣布离职中芯国际，进入 LED 研发制造及 LED 相关应用产品领域。在 8 月 4 日这场交流会上，张汝京也阐释了时下中国第三代半导体行业的现状。</p><p>张汝京说，半导体这个行业要长期投入，尤其是第三代半导体，它遵循的不是摩尔定律，而是后摩尔定律。「第三代半导体的设备不是特别贵，线宽也不是很小，投资不是很大，但材料不容易做，设计上也需要有优势。」</p><p>因此，张汝京认为在投资并不大的背景下，第三代半导体行业的发展，最关键的是人才。以下是张汝京在中国第三代导体发展机遇交流峰会的发言内容整理：</p><p><strong>对高科技产业的限制，各届美国政府态度不同</strong></p><p>目前，美国对中国的高科技产业有很多限制，但这不是从现在才开始的。2000 年之前就已经出现的巴黎统筹委员会（该组织于 1994 年 4 月解散），也是一个国际间的技术封锁。最近出现的就是《瓦森纳协定》，都是对某一些国家实行高科技技术、材料和设备等的禁运。</p><p>2000 年，我们回到大陆建芯片厂的时候，这些限制都还存在，但小布什政府对于中国还是比较支持的，他任期内逐渐开放了一些限制。我们当时在中芯国际从 0.18 微米级别的技术、设备和产品要引入中国大陆，都要去申请许可。</p><p>0.18 微米、0.13 微米我们都去美国申请了，而且得到了美国政府 4 个部门的会签，包括美国国务院、商务部、国防部和能源部。能源部比较特殊，它是怕我们做原子弹之类的武器，但我们不做，所以能源部通常都会很快的去通过。</p><p>所以，这个限制是一直存在的，但是 2000 年以后逐渐的减少了，我们就从 0.18 微米一直到 90 纳米、65 纳米，45 纳米都能申请获批。而且 45 纳米的技术还是从 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> 转让来的，这在当时是相当先进的。此后，我们又申请到了 32 纳米——这个制程可以延伸到 28 纳米。</p><p>之后，我本人就离开了中芯国际，后面可能就没有继续申请 28 纳米以下的技术，但也可能不需要了。<strong>总之，对于设备的限制等等，各个美国总统会定出不同的策略，特朗普对中国定的策略是最严苛的。</strong></p><p>早期美国商务部是很支持我们的，国防部会有很多意见，但是经过 4 个部委讨论通过以后也都通过了<strong>。但这次最大的阻力却来自美国商务部，这主要是因为美国在 5G 技术上落后了，所以它就希望中国在 5G 领域的发展脚步放慢，这种限制也有过先例。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200806171158353v235ipxz54w84yo\"/><p>(图片来源：摄图网）</p><p><strong>如果公平竞争行不通，美国就会采取行政方式</strong></p><p>1980 年代的时候，我们在美国生产存储器，当时日本存储器技术在技术、设计和良率都比美国先进很多，于是美国就开始限制日本，后来还逼日本签下《广场协定》。结果大家也看到，日本根本抵挡不了美国的压力，存储器行业几乎消亡，只有一两家还能苟延残喘。</p><p>在逻辑方面，日本本来就没有特别的优势，至今也不算领先，这方面中国大陆可能都比日本强。但是日本领先的是模拟和数模混合，在汽车、高铁这些领域的元器件日本做的是不错的。当时，受到美国的影响，日本各方面都受到了很大制约，发展速度就放缓了。</p><p>但日本也并没有停下脚步，而是潜心钻研材料和设备，所以它在这几方面还是十分领先。譬如说现在全世界大概 51% 的 300 毫米大硅片，都产自日本信越和松口这两家公司。日本在光刻胶、特殊的化学品和材料等领域都是领先的。</p><p>设备方面，日本的光刻机也是很领先，其他的基础设备也都能自主生产，比如扩散炉、LPC 单片机等。但总的来说，美国对日本技术限制之后，日本的设备，尤其是存储器领域，还是受到很大打击。</p><p>然而，这次美国发现中国对其造成很大的竞争压力时，美国的行政负责人就开始要打击和制约以 5G 通讯为主的中国技术。如果中国在 5G 技术上保持领先，将来在通讯、人工智能、云端服务等等，中国都会大大超前，因为中国在高科技应用领域是很强的。</p><p>最近闹得沸沸扬扬的抖音，它比美国的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> 要好得多，同样是社交网站，抖音有很多有趣的功能，一下子就在美国受到很多年轻人的喜欢。当然也可以看到 Facebook 的负责人说话很酸，说中国如何不好，这都是出于嫉妒的心理。</p><p><strong>美国如果公平竞争赢不了，它就会采取行政的方式。1980 年代，美国对日本做了一次，2018 年开始，又开始对 5G 进行制约，这次它的对手不再是日本。美国对中国制约的能力没有那么强，但是我们不能掉以轻心。</strong></p><p><strong>第三代半导体不是摩尔定律，是后摩尔定律</strong></p><p>第一代的半导体材料，最早用的是锗，后来再从锗变成了硅，因为硅的产量多，技术开发的也很好，所以基本上已经完全取代了锗。但是到了 40 纳米以下，锗的应用又出现了，锗硅通道可以让电子流速度很快。</p><p>第二代是使用复合半导体材料，比如我们常用的是砷化镓或者磷化铟，这些可以用在功放领域，早期它速度比较快。但是因为砷含剧毒，所以现在很多地方都禁止使用，所以砷化镓的应用还是局限在高速的功放功率领域。磷化铟用来做发光器件，比如 LED。</p><p>到了第三代，更好的化合物材料出现了，包括碳化硅、氮化镓、氮化铝等等。碳化硅在高电压、大功率等领域有着特别的优势；氮化镓的转换频率可以很高，所以常被用在高频功放器件领域；氮化铝用于特殊领域，民用会涉及得比较少。</p><p>另外还有一些半导体是比较特别的，不知道该归入第几代，时间上它们是贯穿第二、第三代。比如锑化镉、锑化汞等等。这些材料的用途非常的特别，工艺也比较复杂，基本上民间很少用到它，但它们也还属于半导体的范畴。</p><p>5G 领域常常会用到第三代半导体材料，比如说 5G 的高频芯片用的材料是氮化镓。这种材料的频率非常高，也可以耐高压高温。又比如无人驾驶汽车、或大功率的充电桩都会用到碳化硅，这些材料美国都会对中国采取禁运措施。</p><p>半导体这个行业要长期投入，从业人员也要耐得住寂寞，经验是逐渐累积起来的。这和网络电商这些不一样，网络电商可以很短的时间有一个好的想法，就可以一下起来，投资人也愿意把钱投到那边去。</p><p><strong>但第三代半导体有一个特点，它不是摩尔定律，是后摩尔定律，它的线宽都不是很小的，设备也不是特别的贵，但是它的材料不容易做，设计上要有优势。它投资也不是很大。</strong></p><p>所以如果出现了，第一，有没有市场？有；有没有人愿意投？可能有些人愿意，因为不是很大的投资，回报率看起来也都不错；政府支持吗？政府支持；有没有好的团队？这个是一个大问题；人才够吗？这是一个问题，真正有经验的人在我们国内是不够的。</p><p>所以第三代半导体，就拿碳化硅来讲，好的产品市场非常大，因为新能源车里面要用很多。举个例子，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的 Model 3 就用到了碳化硅的功率器模组。这些模组是谁做的呢？是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">意法半导体</a>，最近它也开始向英飞凌买一些，它基本上是这两家提供的，而这两家基本上都是 IDM（垂直整合制造）公司，它做得很好。</p><p><strong>第三代半导体的投资并不大，关键是人才</strong></p><p>第三代半导体里面大的这些都是 IDM 公司，因为它从头到尾产业链是一家负责，做出来可能效率会比较高。但是也有芯片厂，有的人在日本，有人做 Epi（外延片）做得不错，在我们中国最早的单晶的衬底片不一定自己做的，但是上面外延片自己做。</p><p>做了以后，有一些设计公司设计好了以后，在不同的芯片厂里去留片，这种碳化硅的芯片厂，日本有，台湾地区有，韩国也有，所以也有这种分工合作的情景。</p><p>我们中国大陆也有人想这样做，所以我个人觉得第三代半导体，IDM 开始现在是主流，但是 Foundry 照样有机会，但是需要设计公司找到一个可以长期合作的芯片厂。我个人觉得这是一个好机会。</p><p>如果资本市场愿意投入，这个所需的资本跟做先进的逻辑平台差太多倍了。投资并不是很多就可以做，重点是人才。这些人才，我们国内现在不太够的，但美国有，有些人还是愿意来大陆来做，日本有一些不一定方便来。韩国有、台湾地区有，我们中国大陆自己也有些研究机构做得不错，如果这些人愿意进到产业界来，这也是很好。</p><p>我个人觉得韩国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>就做得不错。三星为什么做得好呢？他就是一个 IDM，它财力雄厚，而且它眼光很远的。虽然国内的市场不大，但是它晓得它一定要掌握技术，所以很早以来中国三星不但是开发材料，做设备，把各式各样的产业从头做到尾。</p><p>如果有一天它受到制约，这个不给它，那个不给它，基本上除了光科技以外，它都可以活命的。基本上第一到第三代的半导体产品，它都能够生产，而且具有很大的竞争力。</p><p>在台湾是有一家有能力做到三星的，这一家它在技术上非常领先，但是除了技术以外，基本上对材料、设备不太去发展。因为它们觉得不会被海外的市场卡脖子，所以它觉得没有必要做这个事情。再加上它们的领导喜欢专注在他专业上面，其它他不去碰，所以有很好的机会，但是没有发展出产业链。</p><p>我们中国大陆就不一样，可能会被卡脖子的，所以一定要自己把这些技术开发出来。我再强调一下，第三代半导体投资并不是很大，重点是人才，IDM 我个人觉得是不错，芯片厂之间的分工合作方式也可行，希望投资界的人多注意关怀，给予适当的支持。</p><p>编者按：本文首发于微信公众号：极客公园（ID：geekpark），作者：万鸣宇</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中芯创始人张汝京：下一代半导体不需要大投资，最关键是人才\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-06 17:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008061711597b23e096&s=b><strong>极客公园</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|万鸣宇 来源|极客公园（ID：geekpark）时下，美国总统特朗普试图封禁TikTok一事仍在发酵，中国科技企业的全球化进程该何去何从？在中国第三代导体发展机遇交流峰会上，原中芯国际创始人兼 CEO 张汝京认为，类似的限制由来已久，各界美国政府对此的态度各有不同，「特朗普对中国定的策略是最严苛的」。针对以 5G 通讯为主的中国技术，美国政府大面积打击和制约又是什么原因？张汝京回答，当美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008061711597b23e096&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202008061711597b23e096&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2057316515","content_text":"作者|万鸣宇 来源|极客公园（ID：geekpark）时下，美国总统特朗普试图封禁TikTok一事仍在发酵，中国科技企业的全球化进程该何去何从？在中国第三代导体发展机遇交流峰会上，原中芯国际创始人兼 CEO 张汝京认为，类似的限制由来已久，各界美国政府对此的态度各有不同，「特朗普对中国定的策略是最严苛的」。针对以 5G 通讯为主的中国技术，美国政府大面积打击和制约又是什么原因？张汝京回答，当美国发现中国对其造成的竞争压力很大时，美国的行政负责人就开始要打击，如果公平竞争赢不了，它就会采取行政的方式。他也特别提到：「美国对中国制约的能力没有那么强，但是我们不能掉以轻心。」张汝京曾在德州仪器工作了 20 年，2004 年 4 月来到上海创办中芯国际并担任 CEO，2009 年 11 月宣布离职中芯国际，进入 LED 研发制造及 LED 相关应用产品领域。在 8 月 4 日这场交流会上，张汝京也阐释了时下中国第三代半导体行业的现状。张汝京说，半导体这个行业要长期投入，尤其是第三代半导体，它遵循的不是摩尔定律，而是后摩尔定律。「第三代半导体的设备不是特别贵，线宽也不是很小，投资不是很大，但材料不容易做，设计上也需要有优势。」因此，张汝京认为在投资并不大的背景下，第三代半导体行业的发展，最关键的是人才。以下是张汝京在中国第三代导体发展机遇交流峰会的发言内容整理：对高科技产业的限制，各届美国政府态度不同目前，美国对中国的高科技产业有很多限制，但这不是从现在才开始的。2000 年之前就已经出现的巴黎统筹委员会（该组织于 1994 年 4 月解散），也是一个国际间的技术封锁。最近出现的就是《瓦森纳协定》，都是对某一些国家实行高科技技术、材料和设备等的禁运。2000 年，我们回到大陆建芯片厂的时候，这些限制都还存在，但小布什政府对于中国还是比较支持的，他任期内逐渐开放了一些限制。我们当时在中芯国际从 0.18 微米级别的技术、设备和产品要引入中国大陆，都要去申请许可。0.18 微米、0.13 微米我们都去美国申请了，而且得到了美国政府 4 个部门的会签，包括美国国务院、商务部、国防部和能源部。能源部比较特殊，它是怕我们做原子弹之类的武器，但我们不做，所以能源部通常都会很快的去通过。所以，这个限制是一直存在的，但是 2000 年以后逐渐的减少了，我们就从 0.18 微米一直到 90 纳米、65 纳米，45 纳米都能申请获批。而且 45 纳米的技术还是从 IBM 转让来的，这在当时是相当先进的。此后，我们又申请到了 32 纳米——这个制程可以延伸到 28 纳米。之后，我本人就离开了中芯国际，后面可能就没有继续申请 28 纳米以下的技术，但也可能不需要了。总之，对于设备的限制等等，各个美国总统会定出不同的策略，特朗普对中国定的策略是最严苛的。早期美国商务部是很支持我们的，国防部会有很多意见，但是经过 4 个部委讨论通过以后也都通过了。但这次最大的阻力却来自美国商务部，这主要是因为美国在 5G 技术上落后了，所以它就希望中国在 5G 领域的发展脚步放慢，这种限制也有过先例。(图片来源：摄图网）如果公平竞争行不通，美国就会采取行政方式1980 年代的时候，我们在美国生产存储器，当时日本存储器技术在技术、设计和良率都比美国先进很多，于是美国就开始限制日本，后来还逼日本签下《广场协定》。结果大家也看到，日本根本抵挡不了美国的压力，存储器行业几乎消亡，只有一两家还能苟延残喘。在逻辑方面，日本本来就没有特别的优势，至今也不算领先，这方面中国大陆可能都比日本强。但是日本领先的是模拟和数模混合，在汽车、高铁这些领域的元器件日本做的是不错的。当时，受到美国的影响，日本各方面都受到了很大制约，发展速度就放缓了。但日本也并没有停下脚步，而是潜心钻研材料和设备，所以它在这几方面还是十分领先。譬如说现在全世界大概 51% 的 300 毫米大硅片，都产自日本信越和松口这两家公司。日本在光刻胶、特殊的化学品和材料等领域都是领先的。设备方面，日本的光刻机也是很领先，其他的基础设备也都能自主生产，比如扩散炉、LPC 单片机等。但总的来说，美国对日本技术限制之后，日本的设备，尤其是存储器领域，还是受到很大打击。然而，这次美国发现中国对其造成很大的竞争压力时，美国的行政负责人就开始要打击和制约以 5G 通讯为主的中国技术。如果中国在 5G 技术上保持领先，将来在通讯、人工智能、云端服务等等，中国都会大大超前，因为中国在高科技应用领域是很强的。最近闹得沸沸扬扬的抖音，它比美国的 Facebook 要好得多，同样是社交网站，抖音有很多有趣的功能，一下子就在美国受到很多年轻人的喜欢。当然也可以看到 Facebook 的负责人说话很酸，说中国如何不好，这都是出于嫉妒的心理。美国如果公平竞争赢不了，它就会采取行政的方式。1980 年代，美国对日本做了一次，2018 年开始，又开始对 5G 进行制约，这次它的对手不再是日本。美国对中国制约的能力没有那么强，但是我们不能掉以轻心。第三代半导体不是摩尔定律，是后摩尔定律第一代的半导体材料，最早用的是锗，后来再从锗变成了硅，因为硅的产量多，技术开发的也很好，所以基本上已经完全取代了锗。但是到了 40 纳米以下，锗的应用又出现了，锗硅通道可以让电子流速度很快。第二代是使用复合半导体材料，比如我们常用的是砷化镓或者磷化铟，这些可以用在功放领域，早期它速度比较快。但是因为砷含剧毒，所以现在很多地方都禁止使用，所以砷化镓的应用还是局限在高速的功放功率领域。磷化铟用来做发光器件，比如 LED。到了第三代，更好的化合物材料出现了，包括碳化硅、氮化镓、氮化铝等等。碳化硅在高电压、大功率等领域有着特别的优势；氮化镓的转换频率可以很高，所以常被用在高频功放器件领域；氮化铝用于特殊领域，民用会涉及得比较少。另外还有一些半导体是比较特别的，不知道该归入第几代，时间上它们是贯穿第二、第三代。比如锑化镉、锑化汞等等。这些材料的用途非常的特别，工艺也比较复杂，基本上民间很少用到它，但它们也还属于半导体的范畴。5G 领域常常会用到第三代半导体材料，比如说 5G 的高频芯片用的材料是氮化镓。这种材料的频率非常高，也可以耐高压高温。又比如无人驾驶汽车、或大功率的充电桩都会用到碳化硅，这些材料美国都会对中国采取禁运措施。半导体这个行业要长期投入，从业人员也要耐得住寂寞，经验是逐渐累积起来的。这和网络电商这些不一样，网络电商可以很短的时间有一个好的想法，就可以一下起来，投资人也愿意把钱投到那边去。但第三代半导体有一个特点，它不是摩尔定律，是后摩尔定律，它的线宽都不是很小的，设备也不是特别的贵，但是它的材料不容易做，设计上要有优势。它投资也不是很大。所以如果出现了，第一，有没有市场？有；有没有人愿意投？可能有些人愿意，因为不是很大的投资，回报率看起来也都不错；政府支持吗？政府支持；有没有好的团队？这个是一个大问题；人才够吗？这是一个问题，真正有经验的人在我们国内是不够的。所以第三代半导体，就拿碳化硅来讲，好的产品市场非常大，因为新能源车里面要用很多。举个例子，特斯拉的 Model 3 就用到了碳化硅的功率器模组。这些模组是谁做的呢？是意法半导体，最近它也开始向英飞凌买一些，它基本上是这两家提供的，而这两家基本上都是 IDM（垂直整合制造）公司，它做得很好。第三代半导体的投资并不大，关键是人才第三代半导体里面大的这些都是 IDM 公司，因为它从头到尾产业链是一家负责，做出来可能效率会比较高。但是也有芯片厂，有的人在日本，有人做 Epi（外延片）做得不错，在我们中国最早的单晶的衬底片不一定自己做的，但是上面外延片自己做。做了以后，有一些设计公司设计好了以后，在不同的芯片厂里去留片，这种碳化硅的芯片厂，日本有，台湾地区有，韩国也有，所以也有这种分工合作的情景。我们中国大陆也有人想这样做，所以我个人觉得第三代半导体，IDM 开始现在是主流，但是 Foundry 照样有机会，但是需要设计公司找到一个可以长期合作的芯片厂。我个人觉得这是一个好机会。如果资本市场愿意投入，这个所需的资本跟做先进的逻辑平台差太多倍了。投资并不是很多就可以做，重点是人才。这些人才，我们国内现在不太够的，但美国有，有些人还是愿意来大陆来做，日本有一些不一定方便来。韩国有、台湾地区有，我们中国大陆自己也有些研究机构做得不错，如果这些人愿意进到产业界来，这也是很好。我个人觉得韩国三星就做得不错。三星为什么做得好呢？他就是一个 IDM，它财力雄厚，而且它眼光很远的。虽然国内的市场不大，但是它晓得它一定要掌握技术，所以很早以来中国三星不但是开发材料，做设备，把各式各样的产业从头做到尾。如果有一天它受到制约，这个不给它，那个不给它，基本上除了光科技以外，它都可以活命的。基本上第一到第三代的半导体产品，它都能够生产，而且具有很大的竞争力。在台湾是有一家有能力做到三星的，这一家它在技术上非常领先，但是除了技术以外，基本上对材料、设备不太去发展。因为它们觉得不会被海外的市场卡脖子，所以它觉得没有必要做这个事情。再加上它们的领导喜欢专注在他专业上面，其它他不去碰，所以有很好的机会，但是没有发展出产业链。我们中国大陆就不一样，可能会被卡脖子的，所以一定要自己把这些技术开发出来。我再强调一下，第三代半导体投资并不是很大，重点是人才，IDM 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