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蔚来哎隆马斯克

蔚来哎隆马斯克

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IP属地：浙江

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蔚来哎隆马斯克

2021-04-21

马云在蚂蚁的股票只有90亿美元价值么

属于马云的时代已经过去！外媒：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2021-02-23

$蔚来(NIO)$这个图有什么想法

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2021-02-13

$ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(ARKG)$最少要买5万刀么

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2021-01-07

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$自己左手右手一个慢动作。

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-12-23

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$老虎送的这个1股碎股港股怎么卖掉

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-11-24

弱不禁风，被三傻一带就歪了

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-11-24

$小牛电动(NIU)$没盘前么，这可是新能源

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-11-06

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$疯了。盘后还在搞

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-11-02

$蔚来(NIO)$怎么办，卖了买EC6还是继续持有

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-10-15

$蔚来(NIO)$今晚到30清仓换车

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-10-14

$蔚来(NIO)$EC6快可以买了么

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-10-10

$洪恩教育(IH)$一顿饭钱

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-10-02

$秦淮数据(CD)$落袋为安

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-10-01

$秦淮数据(CD)$中了新股，卖的手续费要多少。盈利够不够冲减手续费

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-09-30

$蔚来(NIO)$出了么？

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-09-03

$波音(BA)$算了，没成交就没成交

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-09-03

$蔚来(NIO)$不习惯盘前高开

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-09-01

$波音(BA)$看着你，以为你会飞，其实你不如地上开的$特斯拉$

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-08-31

$蔚来(NIO)$跌倒17以下看他怎么增发

蔚来哎隆马斯克

2020-08-29

$蔚来(NIO)$18.7收盘

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07:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"属于马云的时代已经过去！外媒：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128816041","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"路透社：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出根据路透社报道，有知情人士爆料蚂蚁集团正在研究让创始人马云出售其价值10亿美元的蚂蚁股份或者放弃对蚂蚁控制权的方案。蚂蚁集团希望马云的那部分股份不会卖给与他亲近的个人或者公司，最好是卖给蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴的投资人或者是国资企业，并完全退出。如今面对多次约谈整改，属于马云的时代真的要过去了。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：属于马云的时代已经过去！外媒：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>正在尝试让马云退出公司 来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>新闻</p><div></div><p>文｜北桥校对｜北桥</p><p>未经授权，不得以任何形式转载、复制或建立镜像！</p><p>马云开创了国内互联网电商的先河，推动了国内移动支付的发展，让无数实体行业为之震撼，甚至是银行也因此而改变，可以说马云是国内互联网过去20年里最浓墨重彩的一笔。而马云也依靠着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在国内超过50%的市场份额，多次登顶了国内首富的宝座，但马云似乎并不满足于此，他还想玩把大的。</p><p>去年10月，蚂蚁金服计划赴美上市成为了国内最热门的话题，无数网友抢着认购蚂蚁金服的基金，杭州的房价也立马涨了起来。毕竟蚂蚁金服被估值3150亿美元，是有史以来最大的IPO，如果蚂蚁金服顺利上市，马云就有机会冲刺世界首富的宝座了。然而在蚂蚁金服上市的几天前，这场“造富计划”被紧急叫停，蚂蚁金服高管也被约谈，马云更是被点名“没有所谓的马云时代，只有时代中的马云”。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021420/40/w480h360/20210420/36c1-knvsnuh7372802.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>回首马云过去的20年里发展得太顺利了，甚至让他有点“狂”了，扬言“当今的员工可以996是福报”，还抨击“国内没有金融系统，也就没有金融风险”。如今阿里巴巴与蚂蚁金服被多次谈话整改，也算是给他的一个提醒，但这还只是“前菜”。</p><p>路透社：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出</p><p>根据路透社报道，有知情人士爆料蚂蚁集团正在研究让创始人马云出售其价值10亿美元的蚂蚁股份或者放弃对蚂蚁控制权的方案。蚂蚁集团希望马云的那部分股份不会卖给与他亲近的个人或者公司，最好是卖给蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴的投资人或者是国资企业，并完全退出。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021420/371/w480h691/20210420/734b-knvsnuh7372841.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>路透社报道原文</span></div><p>尽管马云只是蚂蚁集团的创始人，但实际上马云在公共场合的无数次露面、发言，已经与蚂蚁集团的品牌绑定到了一起，马云的个人行为都将会影响到蚂蚁集团的发展和未来。去年10月份蚂蚁集团的上市计划被紧急叫停，其中的原因就离不开马云在上海外滩的金融峰会的讲话。如今蚂蚁集团想要顺利上市，那么让马云退出就成为了一个关键问题，这也是一个可以理解的问题。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021420/750/w480h270/20210420/ba07-knvsnuh7372839.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>虽然马云早在去年9月就对外宣布“退休”了，并且辞掉了在董事会的职务，但实际上作为阿里巴巴永久合伙人的他，仍旧掌握着对阿里巴巴和蚂蚁集团的实际控制权，可谓是退而不休。如今面对多次约谈整改，属于马云的时代真的要过去了。</p><p>请问，你对此又有什么看法呢？</p><p>欢迎关注北桥科技——一个有深度、有观点的科技自媒体</p>财报季开启新一轮布局窗口，大数据挖掘投资“预期差”，关注买入机会，立即开户&gt; &gt;</body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>属于马云的时代已经过去！外媒：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n属于马云的时代已经过去！外媒：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 07:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-04-20/doc-ikmxzfmk7804488.shtml><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：属于马云的时代已经过去！外媒：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司 来源：腾讯新闻文｜北桥校对｜北桥未经授权，不得以任何形式转载、复制或建立镜像！马云开创了国内互联网电商的先河，推动了国内移动支付的发展，让无数实体行业为之震撼，甚至是银行也因此而改变，可以说马云是国内互联网过去20年里最浓墨重彩的一笔。而马云也依靠着阿里巴巴在国内超过50%的市场份额，多次登顶了国内首富的宝座，但马云似乎并不满足...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-04-20/doc-ikmxzfmk7804488.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b45e0e7453ad72092d53c8a3faaf5b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","06688":"蚂蚁集团","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-04-20/doc-ikmxzfmk7804488.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128816041","content_text":"原标题：属于马云的时代已经过去！外媒：蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CD\">$秦淮数据(CD)$</a>落袋为安","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CD\">$秦淮数据(CD)$</a>落袋为安","text":"$秦淮数据(CD)$落袋为安","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc1f1bb4af7a08ca4e5362945639b4f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977276832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944759711,"gmtCreate":1597135110633,"gmtModify":1704214518202,"author":{"id":"3549684820314294","authorId":"3549684820314294","name":"蔚来哎隆马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c16117b24ec68a1d62004a858f7081","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549684820314294","authorIdStr":"3549684820314294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>年初买的才2000股，买了后高瓴资本就跑了，一度庆幸买的少，现在后悔买的少了。哈哈","listText":"<a 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10:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199767469","media":"锦缎","summary":"投降于资本市场的蔚来，对于用户来说，未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。","content":"<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：</p><p>1997年IPO时投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。</p><p>长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>走在后面这条路上，它向资本市场低头了。</b></p><p>如果一家企业向资本市场投降，向股东投降，最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本，即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本，最典型的莫过于<b>研发投入</b>。</p><p><b>前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说，蔚来要涨40倍。</b>呵呵，从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司，研发投入不跟上，股价还能涨40倍的。</p><p>话说回来，之所以短期利益变得更加重要，也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资，但这并不简单，也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议，如果完不成，蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>“投降”趋势</b></p><p>蔚来在研发投入上的态度，从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是：</p><ul><li><p><b>没钱砍研发。</b>2019年下半年，蔚来融资不利，现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降，2019Q3，同比+0%；2019Q4，同比-33%；2020Q1，同比-52%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱砍研发。</b>2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资，以及六家银行百亿授信，2020Q2，同比-58%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱没钱砍研发。</b>8月11日的电话会里，蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的，“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内，我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发，大约5-6亿元/季度的投入，每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf869884d2cb671b913e63058da55b8c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"598\"></p><p>▲图1：蔚来研发费用。来源：公司财报，锦缎。</p><p><b>预感有人会拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>出来说事，这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。</b></p><p>现在的特斯拉，从单季度营收来看，当前的蔚来（Q2收入37.2亿元）大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当，后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元（按当时6.28的汇率，折合人民币35.3亿元）。</p><p>特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级（单个季度三四十亿元）的2013年，四个季度研发费用分别同比下降：-19%，-31%，-10%，-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以？</p><p>蔚来当然不可以，橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦，我们具体问题具体分析：</p><p>当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞，四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元，经营的不确定很大。这个时期，研发费用下降无可厚非，下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢，交付量节节攀升：</p><ul><li><p>2019年Q4交付量为8224辆，平均89.4辆/天；</p></li><li><p>中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势；</p></li><li><p>2020年Q2交付量为10331辆，平均113.5辆/天；</p></li><li><p>2020年Q3可能也会不错，因为除了ES6和ES8，EC6九月份也要开始交付了。</p></li></ul><p>交付量上去了，营收上去了，研发费用却大幅降低，情况就是这么个情况，这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。<b>这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协，一种投降。</b></p><p>投降于资本市场的蔚来，对于用户来说，未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>实惠减少</b></p><p>二季度，蔚来迎来里程碑时刻：毛利率转正且可持续（预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1608af6bd25c3ef5316a9447a3330da7\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>▲图2：蔚来毛利率变化图。来源：公司财报，锦缎。</p><p>这对股东来说是好事，这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个：</p><p><b>第一，&nbsp;规模效应。</b></p><p>这个大家都懂，规模大了，工人更熟练，学习曲线上去了，浪费减少，毛利率自然提高。</p><p>但是，咱回头来看看，规模确实提高了，今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆，这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗？改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗（去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%）？如果是这样，月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高？</p><p>所以我们认为，这次毛利率转正过程中，规模效应不是主要的原因。</p><p><b>第二，节省BOM。</b></p><p>BOM即Bill of Material，物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说，“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率，我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间，例如通过节省BOM等方式，10%是可以实现的，但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间，从各方面来说都有改善机会，但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”</p><p>过去，蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力，为了用户不惜用料，你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题，也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。</p><p>而现在，蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制，表示，“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究，实惠减少了。</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>魔幻蔚来</b></p><p>研发费用变少，实惠可能也会逐步变少，那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心，又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢？</p><p>答案是：AI的故事，无人驾驶的故事。</p><p>2020年8月14日，媒体消息：任少卿加盟蔚来，担任“助理副总裁”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144993b8bdf14aed2338ac07690fb403\" tg-width=\"365\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p>▲图3：任少卿简历。</p><p>引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述：</p><blockquote>“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊！Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络，它试图拟合残差，训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone；而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术，无敌的存在。而任少卿，基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn，他是一作！”</blockquote><p>科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点，这简直是男人的Viagra。</p><p>蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力，任少卿加盟支撑算法，再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”，L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗？</p><p>在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道，但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人，早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看，Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶，高科技感十足的专利聚类包括：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8daed259f14788161671f442b507a74b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>▲图4：Faraday Future专利分类。来源：incopat</p><p>模式识别302件；导航数据203件；位置测量误差202件；集成驱动185件；门铰链173件。最终，Faraday Future尘归尘，土归土。<b>多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想，不应该给予折现。</b></p><p>理智的看，自动驾驶商用化很难，技术上无法实现，法规上还未配套，可能5-10年以后情况会改观，但不是现在。</p><p><b>但这又有什么关系呢，反正能讲的故事变多了：故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。</b></p><p>一种循环，永不落幕。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-18 10:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：1997年IPO时投资亚马逊，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上，它向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199767469","content_text":"优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：1997年IPO时投资亚马逊，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上，它向资本市场低头了。如果一家企业向资本市场投降，向股东投降，最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本，即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本，最典型的莫过于研发投入。前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说，蔚来要涨40倍。呵呵，从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司，研发投入不跟上，股价还能涨40倍的。话说回来，之所以短期利益变得更加重要，也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资，但这并不简单，也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议，如果完不成，蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。01、“投降”趋势蔚来在研发投入上的态度，从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是：没钱砍研发。2019年下半年，蔚来融资不利，现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降，2019Q3，同比+0%；2019Q4，同比-33%；2020Q1，同比-52%。有钱砍研发。2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资，以及六家银行百亿授信，2020Q2，同比-58%。有钱没钱砍研发。8月11日的电话会里，蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的，“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内，我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发，大约5-6亿元/季度的投入，每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。▲图1：蔚来研发费用。来源：公司财报，锦缎。预感有人会拿特斯拉出来说事，这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。现在的特斯拉，从单季度营收来看，当前的蔚来（Q2收入37.2亿元）大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当，后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元（按当时6.28的汇率，折合人民币35.3亿元）。特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级（单个季度三四十亿元）的2013年，四个季度研发费用分别同比下降：-19%，-31%，-10%，-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以？蔚来当然不可以，橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦，我们具体问题具体分析：当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞，四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元，经营的不确定很大。这个时期，研发费用下降无可厚非，下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢，交付量节节攀升：2019年Q4交付量为8224辆，平均89.4辆/天；中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势；2020年Q2交付量为10331辆，平均113.5辆/天；2020年Q3可能也会不错，因为除了ES6和ES8，EC6九月份也要开始交付了。交付量上去了，营收上去了，研发费用却大幅降低，情况就是这么个情况，这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协，一种投降。投降于资本市场的蔚来，对于用户来说，未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。02、实惠减少二季度，蔚来迎来里程碑时刻：毛利率转正且可持续（预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利）。▲图2：蔚来毛利率变化图。来源：公司财报，锦缎。这对股东来说是好事，这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个：第一， 规模效应。这个大家都懂，规模大了，工人更熟练，学习曲线上去了，浪费减少，毛利率自然提高。但是，咱回头来看看，规模确实提高了，今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆，这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗？改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗（去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%）？如果是这样，月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高？所以我们认为，这次毛利率转正过程中，规模效应不是主要的原因。第二，节省BOM。BOM即Bill of Material，物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说，“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率，我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间，例如通过节省BOM等方式，10%是可以实现的，但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间，从各方面来说都有改善机会，但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”过去，蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力，为了用户不惜用料，你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题，也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。而现在，蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制，表示，“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究，实惠减少了。03、魔幻蔚来研发费用变少，实惠可能也会逐步变少，那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心，又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢？答案是：AI的故事，无人驾驶的故事。2020年8月14日，媒体消息：任少卿加盟蔚来，担任“助理副总裁”。▲图3：任少卿简历。引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述：“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊！Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络，它试图拟合残差，训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone；而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术，无敌的存在。而任少卿，基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn，他是一作！”科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点，这简直是男人的Viagra。蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力，任少卿加盟支撑算法，再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”，L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗？在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道，但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人，早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看，Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶，高科技感十足的专利聚类包括：▲图4：Faraday Future专利分类。来源：incopat模式识别302件；导航数据203件；位置测量误差202件；集成驱动185件；门铰链173件。最终，Faraday 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