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蔚来哎隆马斯克
2021-04-21
马云在蚂蚁的股票只有90亿美元价值么
属于马云的时代已经过去!外媒:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2021-02-23
$蔚来(NIO)$
这个图有什么想法
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2021-02-13
$ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(ARKG)$
最少要买5万刀么
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2021-01-07
$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$
自己左手右手一个慢动作。
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-12-23
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
老虎送的这个1股碎股港股怎么卖掉
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-11-24
弱不禁风,被三傻一带就歪了
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-11-24
$小牛电动(NIU)$
没盘前么,这可是新能源
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-11-06
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
疯了。盘后还在搞
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-11-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
怎么办,卖了买EC6还是继续持有
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-10-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
今晚到30清仓换车
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-10-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
EC6快可以买了么
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-10-10
$洪恩教育(IH)$
一顿饭钱
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-10-02
$秦淮数据(CD)$
落袋为安
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-10-01
$秦淮数据(CD)$
中了新股,卖的手续费要多少。盈利够不够冲减手续费
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-09-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
出了么?
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-09-03
$波音(BA)$
算了,没成交就没成交
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-09-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
不习惯盘前高开
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-09-01
$波音(BA)$
看着你,以为你会飞,其实你不如地上开的$特斯拉$
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-08-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
跌倒17以下看他怎么增发
蔚来哎隆马斯克
2020-08-29
$蔚来(NIO)$
18.7收盘
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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07:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"属于马云的时代已经过去!外媒:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128816041","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"路透社:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出根据路透社报道,有知情人士爆料蚂蚁集团正在研究让创始人马云出售其价值10亿美元的蚂蚁股份或者放弃对蚂蚁控制权的方案。蚂蚁集团希望马云的那部分股份不会卖给与他亲近的个人或者公司,最好是卖给蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴的投资人或者是国资企业,并完全退出。如今面对多次约谈整改,属于马云的时代真的要过去了。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:属于马云的时代已经过去!外媒:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>正在尝试让马云退出公司 来源:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>新闻</p><div></div><p>文|北桥校对|北桥</p><p>未经授权,不得以任何形式转载、复制或建立镜像!</p><p>马云开创了国内互联网电商的先河,推动了国内移动支付的发展,让无数实体行业为之震撼,甚至是银行也因此而改变,可以说马云是国内互联网过去20年里最浓墨重彩的一笔。而马云也依靠着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在国内超过50%的市场份额,多次登顶了国内首富的宝座,但马云似乎并不满足于此,他还想玩把大的。</p><p>去年10月,蚂蚁金服计划赴美上市成为了国内最热门的话题,无数网友抢着认购蚂蚁金服的基金,杭州的房价也立马涨了起来。毕竟蚂蚁金服被估值3150亿美元,是有史以来最大的IPO,如果蚂蚁金服顺利上市,马云就有机会冲刺世界首富的宝座了。然而在蚂蚁金服上市的几天前,这场“造富计划”被紧急叫停,蚂蚁金服高管也被约谈,马云更是被点名“没有所谓的马云时代,只有时代中的马云”。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021420/40/w480h360/20210420/36c1-knvsnuh7372802.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>回首马云过去的20年里发展得太顺利了,甚至让他有点“狂”了,扬言“当今的员工可以996是福报”,还抨击“国内没有金融系统,也就没有金融风险”。如今阿里巴巴与蚂蚁金服被多次谈话整改,也算是给他的一个提醒,但这还只是“前菜”。</p><p>路透社:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出</p><p>根据路透社报道,有知情人士爆料蚂蚁集团正在研究让创始人马云出售其价值10亿美元的蚂蚁股份或者放弃对蚂蚁控制权的方案。蚂蚁集团希望马云的那部分股份不会卖给与他亲近的个人或者公司,最好是卖给蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴的投资人或者是国资企业,并完全退出。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021420/371/w480h691/20210420/734b-knvsnuh7372841.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/><span>路透社报道原文</span></div><p>尽管马云只是蚂蚁集团的创始人,但实际上马云在公共场合的无数次露面、发言,已经与蚂蚁集团的品牌绑定到了一起,马云的个人行为都将会影响到蚂蚁集团的发展和未来。去年10月份蚂蚁集团的上市计划被紧急叫停,其中的原因就离不开马云在上海外滩的金融峰会的讲话。如今蚂蚁集团想要顺利上市,那么让马云退出就成为了一个关键问题,这也是一个可以理解的问题。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021420/750/w480h270/20210420/ba07-knvsnuh7372839.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>虽然马云早在去年9月就对外宣布“退休”了,并且辞掉了在董事会的职务,但实际上作为阿里巴巴永久合伙人的他,仍旧掌握着对阿里巴巴和蚂蚁集团的实际控制权,可谓是退而不休。如今面对多次约谈整改,属于马云的时代真的要过去了。</p><p>请问,你对此又有什么看法呢?</p><p>欢迎关注北桥科技——一个有深度、有观点的科技自媒体</p>财报季开启新一轮布局窗口,大数据挖掘投资“预期差”,关注买入机会,立即开户> ></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>属于马云的时代已经过去!外媒:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n属于马云的时代已经过去!外媒:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 07:29 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-04-20/doc-ikmxzfmk7804488.shtml><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:属于马云的时代已经过去!外媒:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司 来源:腾讯新闻文|北桥校对|北桥未经授权,不得以任何形式转载、复制或建立镜像!马云开创了国内互联网电商的先河,推动了国内移动支付的发展,让无数实体行业为之震撼,甚至是银行也因此而改变,可以说马云是国内互联网过去20年里最浓墨重彩的一笔。而马云也依靠着阿里巴巴在国内超过50%的市场份额,多次登顶了国内首富的宝座,但马云似乎并不满足...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-04-20/doc-ikmxzfmk7804488.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b45e0e7453ad72092d53c8a3faaf5b","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-04-20/doc-ikmxzfmk7804488.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128816041","content_text":"原标题:属于马云的时代已经过去!外媒:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出公司 来源:腾讯新闻文|北桥校对|北桥未经授权,不得以任何形式转载、复制或建立镜像!马云开创了国内互联网电商的先河,推动了国内移动支付的发展,让无数实体行业为之震撼,甚至是银行也因此而改变,可以说马云是国内互联网过去20年里最浓墨重彩的一笔。而马云也依靠着阿里巴巴在国内超过50%的市场份额,多次登顶了国内首富的宝座,但马云似乎并不满足于此,他还想玩把大的。去年10月,蚂蚁金服计划赴美上市成为了国内最热门的话题,无数网友抢着认购蚂蚁金服的基金,杭州的房价也立马涨了起来。毕竟蚂蚁金服被估值3150亿美元,是有史以来最大的IPO,如果蚂蚁金服顺利上市,马云就有机会冲刺世界首富的宝座了。然而在蚂蚁金服上市的几天前,这场“造富计划”被紧急叫停,蚂蚁金服高管也被约谈,马云更是被点名“没有所谓的马云时代,只有时代中的马云”。回首马云过去的20年里发展得太顺利了,甚至让他有点“狂”了,扬言“当今的员工可以996是福报”,还抨击“国内没有金融系统,也就没有金融风险”。如今阿里巴巴与蚂蚁金服被多次谈话整改,也算是给他的一个提醒,但这还只是“前菜”。路透社:蚂蚁集团正在尝试让马云退出根据路透社报道,有知情人士爆料蚂蚁集团正在研究让创始人马云出售其价值10亿美元的蚂蚁股份或者放弃对蚂蚁控制权的方案。蚂蚁集团希望马云的那部分股份不会卖给与他亲近的个人或者公司,最好是卖给蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴的投资人或者是国资企业,并完全退出。路透社报道原文尽管马云只是蚂蚁集团的创始人,但实际上马云在公共场合的无数次露面、发言,已经与蚂蚁集团的品牌绑定到了一起,马云的个人行为都将会影响到蚂蚁集团的发展和未来。去年10月份蚂蚁集团的上市计划被紧急叫停,其中的原因就离不开马云在上海外滩的金融峰会的讲话。如今蚂蚁集团想要顺利上市,那么让马云退出就成为了一个关键问题,这也是一个可以理解的问题。虽然马云早在去年9月就对外宣布“退休”了,并且辞掉了在董事会的职务,但实际上作为阿里巴巴永久合伙人的他,仍旧掌握着对阿里巴巴和蚂蚁集团的实际控制权,可谓是退而不休。如今面对多次约谈整改,属于马云的时代真的要过去了。请问,你对此又有什么看法呢?欢迎关注北桥科技——一个有深度、有观点的科技自媒体财报季开启新一轮布局窗口,大数据挖掘投资“预期差”,关注买入机会,立即开户> 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。</b></p><p>如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于<b>研发投入</b>。</p><p><b>前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。</b>呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。</p><p>话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>“投降”趋势</b></p><p>蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:</p><ul><li><p><b>没钱砍研发。</b>2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱砍研发。</b>2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱没钱砍研发。</b>8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf869884d2cb671b913e63058da55b8c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"598\"></p><p>▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p><b>预感有人会拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。</b></p><p>现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。</p><p>特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?</p><p>蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:</p><p>当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:</p><ul><li><p>2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;</p></li><li><p>中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。</p></li></ul><p>交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。<b>这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。</b></p><p>投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>实惠减少</b></p><p>二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1608af6bd25c3ef5316a9447a3330da7\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p>这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:</p><p><b>第一, 规模效应。</b></p><p>这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。</p><p>但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?</p><p>所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。</p><p><b>第二,节省BOM。</b></p><p>BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”</p><p>过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。</p><p>而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>魔幻蔚来</b></p><p>研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?</p><p>答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。</p><p>2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144993b8bdf14aed2338ac07690fb403\" tg-width=\"365\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p>▲图3:任少卿简历。</p><p>引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:</p><blockquote>“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”</blockquote><p>科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。</p><p>蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?</p><p>在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8daed259f14788161671f442b507a74b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat</p><p>模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。<b>多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。</b></p><p>理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。</p><p><b>但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。</b></p><p>一种循环,永不落幕。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-18 10:14 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199767469","content_text":"优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于研发投入。前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。01、“投降”趋势蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:没钱砍研发。2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。有钱砍研发。2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。有钱没钱砍研发。8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。预感有人会拿特斯拉出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。02、实惠减少二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:第一, 规模效应。这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。第二,节省BOM。BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。03、魔幻蔚来研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。▲图3:任少卿简历。引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。一种循环,永不落幕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944909991,"gmtCreate":1596725438813,"gmtModify":1704213372804,"author":{"id":"3549684820314294","authorId":"3549684820314294","name":"蔚来哎隆马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c16117b24ec68a1d62004a858f7081","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549684820314294","idStr":"3549684820314294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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