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哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦

2021-03-11

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$所以其实美债收益率和纳指半毛钱关系都没有吗[捂脸]

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2020-12-08

$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$估计机构在周四周五就开始慢慢出货了

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2022-02-24

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$千载难逢的做多机会，立帖为证

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2021-03-04

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$这股今天这么强，难道要成为新晋wsb冲锋大将了？

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2021-06-25

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$这么多好票，偏偏重仓了这只。难受

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2021-03-02

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$牛皮这是加杠杆的比特币啊

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2020-10-16

$理想汽车(LI)$庄前两天把筹码全抛完了？

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2021-01-19

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$磨蹭了半天才27，真浪费仓位

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2021-01-15

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$再垃圾的股这礼拜都小跳了一下，你这是在做俯卧撑啊

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2020-11-05

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 胜负已分，现在还在说懂王能赢的机构是货还没出完吧。拜登上来就该封城的了，科技股也得加税。这是最后一波诱多了。

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2022-02-04

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$非农好于预期不是正好多加两次加息么，怎么弹起来了

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2021-04-13

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$这么大的利好，直接砸没了？?

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2021-01-28

$AMC院线(AMC)$感觉已经是阶级斗争了

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2021-01-21

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$怎么这股每天有如此多人要离场

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2020-12-02

$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$大家抓紧买到25 这样我做空放心点

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2020-07-21

$挪威邮轮(NCLH)$确诊8万了还敢买一个快破产邮轮股吗。。。

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2021-02-18

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)这玩意真垃圾今天涨的还没昨天跌的多

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2021-01-22

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$不急再过一小时给大家表演一次十米板

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2021-01-13

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$卖了理想和tdoc补的这个，已经阵亡了

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2020-12-15

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$昨晚11.3卖了，本月下饭操作。真的难受

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昨天这么稳的线是散户拉的出来的？","listText":"笑死了 昨天这么稳的线是散户拉的出来的？","text":"笑死了 昨天这么稳的线是散户拉的出来的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635139222","repostId":"2218237994","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2218237994","pubTimestamp":1646879896,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2218237994?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-10 10:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“逢低买入”助美股暴力反弹，机构投资者却拒绝跟风","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218237994","media":"智通财经网","summary":"经验丰富的股票型基金经理们避开了周三席卷美股市场的“逢低买入”狂潮。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>随着市场抛售情绪暂告段落，欧美交易时段股市迎来集体强劲反弹，美股三大指数涨幅均达到2%。这是否意味着股市底部已现，现在是否可以进场抄底？从华尔街分析师的观点来看，大家对此仍普遍持谨慎态度。</blockquote><p>经验丰富的股票型基金经理们普遍认为，当市场在俄乌冲突和滞胀担忧的背景之下持续波动时，无论近期主要股指的走势如何，最好的做法始终是保持小心谨慎的态度。</p><p>简而言之，这就是Carmignac Gestion和Ned David  Research等基金经理和策略师们的主要观点，他们避开了周三席卷美股市场的“逢低买入”狂潮。</p><p>这些策略师表示，尽管人们对后新冠疫情时代大幅反弹的深刻记忆可能会进一步激发人们的想象空间，但当时和现在投资环境的巨大差异使得如今反弹面临的风险更大。</p><p><b>流动性不可同日而语</b></p><p>首先是各大央行的姿态，他们在2020年向市场注入的巨额流动性，为那一年和下一年的超级大逆转奠定了基础。如今，这种流动性意愿已不复存在，在俄乌冲突造成大宗商品价格极端波动、威胁全球经济增长之际，各大央行对于及时退出刺激政策的态度已非常明确。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>投资组合策略和资产配置董事总经理Christian  Mueller-Glissmann表示:“对大多数投资组合来说，这种类型的风险难以定位或准确掌控。”“我们正在应对的最重要风险是‘滞胀’，它可能会在许多地方引发衰退风险。”</p><p>不少分析人士认为这场地区冲突势必会打击全球经济增长，并将处于历史高位的通胀推得更高，有可能使经济陷入滞胀——甚至是另一场衰退，而就在两年前，新冠疫情导致了数十年来最严重的经济衰退。</p><p>当时，世界各大央行纷纷出手拯救市场和经济体。但现在，许多政策制定者希望尽快退出在新冠疫情时期的紧急货币政策，以遏制物价上涨。由于有迹象显示经济增长正在放缓，交易员们可能将不得不重新衡量市场风险，在没有央行宽松货币政策支撑的情况下，为疲软的经济重新定价。</p><p>在美国，预计美联储将于下周开始其紧缩周期，届时将是近三年来的首次加息。此前不久，标普500指数(S&amp;P  500)进入回调区域，收益率曲线也大幅趋平。据统计，至少自1990年以来，美联储一直没有在这种情况下收紧货币政策。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4c2d7b0e063cc5502136599d475ba4\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>首席固定收益策略师Kathy  Jones在接受采访时表示:“美联储从未在收益率曲线如此平坦的情况下开始加息周期。”“由于俄乌冲突，事情变得越来越复杂，我们面临着通胀飙升和金融状况收紧的双重重压，这让我们所有人都陷入困境。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf698cd0fb600b411bc2e003d52dfb32\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>反弹是出逃的最佳时机?</b></p><p>智通财经APP了解到，尽管周三的“逢低买入”这一强大力量推动美欧股市实现自新冠疫情导致的触底以来的最大涨幅，但华尔街资深基金经理仍在避免投资风险并大幅降低股票仓位。油价虽暴跌但今年以来仍大幅走高，镍期货市场仍处于动荡之中，小麦价格接近历史高位，所有这些都在煽动通胀飙升，各大央行可能被迫采取行动。</p><p>“对大宗商品供应的担忧增加了许多经济体陷入衰退境地的可能性，”Ned Davis Research首席美国市场策略师Ed  Clissold在给客户的报告中写道。“虽然美国比大多数国家能更好地抵御通胀冲击，但至少要考虑到经济放缓幅度大于预期的风险。”</p><p>Clissold指出，债券市场正发出的有关潜在经济衰退信号，大宗商品价格飙升对需求正构成威胁，他补充称：“现在是时候减持股票并手握现金了。”</p><p>其他资深基金经理也同样担心可能出现经济衰退，Carmignac  Gestion将其投资组合中的股票比例从平均40%削减至5%，高盛建议投资者买入实物资产、黄金和美元等避险货币，而William  Blair投资管理公司则出售了与欧洲金融公司相关的资产。</p><p>对整体经济前景的担忧——低增长和高通胀的危险组合，也出现在其他地方，最明显的是债券实际收益率，自俄乌冲突以来，10年期美国通胀保值债券(TIPS)的收益率下降了40个基点，至约-1%，而全球股市从近期高点下跌近15%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aea78baec1adad98af903e0179693a\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这种新的动态与十多年来一直存在的动态形成了鲜明对比，多年来各大央行降息和购买债券使得金融环境保持宽松，风险资产保持吸引力，即使是在新冠疫情造成的严重衰退期间亦是如此。</p><p>现在的问题是，新的不确定性和潜在的增长放缓，是否会推迟全球各大央行的加息计划。但是随着通胀率续创40年来的新高且仍未见顶，以及能源价格飙升，政策制定者可能无法承受落后于收益率曲线的后果。</p><p>“各大央行将竭尽所能提高利率，尤其是在没有出现衰退的情况下。”William Blair合伙人兼动态配置策略主管Brian  Singer表示。“他们需要，而且我认为他们希望稍微提高利率，这样即使经济放缓，他们仍有一些回旋余地。”</p><p>总部位于巴黎的资管巨头Carmignac早在1月份就将持股比例降至20%，在俄乌冲突升级之后进一步分批降至5%，该公司现在青睐长期债券。</p><p>该公司投资委员会成员Kevin  Thozet表示:“即使在冲突之前，对滞胀趋势的识别，也让我们采取了更谨慎的持仓比例，并减少了风险资产的配置敞口。”“我们现在非常关注高质量增长，以及医疗保健、日用消费品等防御性领域，以及那些在大宗商品价格高企和利率上升的背景下可能更有韧性的细分领域。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“逢低买入”助美股暴力反弹，机构投资者却拒绝跟风\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-10 10:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/672520.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着市场抛售情绪暂告段落，欧美交易时段股市迎来集体强劲反弹，美股三大指数涨幅均达到2%。这是否意味着股市底部已现，现在是否可以进场抄底？从华尔街分析师的观点来看，大家对此仍普遍持谨慎态度。经验丰富的股票型基金经理们普遍认为，当市场在俄乌冲突和滞胀担忧的背景之下持续波动时，无论近期主要股指的走势如何，最好的做法始终是保持小心谨慎的态度。简而言之，这就是Carmignac Gestion和Ned ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/672520.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9dc7b9088eb3ceb301e70ce10e2f3d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"标普500反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","GS":"高盛","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","TIPS":"Tianrong Internet Products and Services, Inc.","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/672520.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2218237994","content_text":"随着市场抛售情绪暂告段落，欧美交易时段股市迎来集体强劲反弹，美股三大指数涨幅均达到2%。这是否意味着股市底部已现，现在是否可以进场抄底？从华尔街分析师的观点来看，大家对此仍普遍持谨慎态度。经验丰富的股票型基金经理们普遍认为，当市场在俄乌冲突和滞胀担忧的背景之下持续波动时，无论近期主要股指的走势如何，最好的做法始终是保持小心谨慎的态度。简而言之，这就是Carmignac Gestion和Ned David  Research等基金经理和策略师们的主要观点，他们避开了周三席卷美股市场的“逢低买入”狂潮。这些策略师表示，尽管人们对后新冠疫情时代大幅反弹的深刻记忆可能会进一步激发人们的想象空间，但当时和现在投资环境的巨大差异使得如今反弹面临的风险更大。流动性不可同日而语首先是各大央行的姿态，他们在2020年向市场注入的巨额流动性，为那一年和下一年的超级大逆转奠定了基础。如今，这种流动性意愿已不复存在，在俄乌冲突造成大宗商品价格极端波动、威胁全球经济增长之际，各大央行对于及时退出刺激政策的态度已非常明确。高盛投资组合策略和资产配置董事总经理Christian  Mueller-Glissmann表示:“对大多数投资组合来说，这种类型的风险难以定位或准确掌控。”“我们正在应对的最重要风险是‘滞胀’，它可能会在许多地方引发衰退风险。”不少分析人士认为这场地区冲突势必会打击全球经济增长，并将处于历史高位的通胀推得更高，有可能使经济陷入滞胀——甚至是另一场衰退，而就在两年前，新冠疫情导致了数十年来最严重的经济衰退。当时，世界各大央行纷纷出手拯救市场和经济体。但现在，许多政策制定者希望尽快退出在新冠疫情时期的紧急货币政策，以遏制物价上涨。由于有迹象显示经济增长正在放缓，交易员们可能将不得不重新衡量市场风险，在没有央行宽松货币政策支撑的情况下，为疲软的经济重新定价。在美国，预计美联储将于下周开始其紧缩周期，届时将是近三年来的首次加息。此前不久，标普500指数(S&P  500)进入回调区域，收益率曲线也大幅趋平。据统计，至少自1990年以来，美联储一直没有在这种情况下收紧货币政策。嘉信理财首席固定收益策略师Kathy  Jones在接受采访时表示:“美联储从未在收益率曲线如此平坦的情况下开始加息周期。”“由于俄乌冲突，事情变得越来越复杂，我们面临着通胀飙升和金融状况收紧的双重重压，这让我们所有人都陷入困境。”反弹是出逃的最佳时机?智通财经APP了解到，尽管周三的“逢低买入”这一强大力量推动美欧股市实现自新冠疫情导致的触底以来的最大涨幅，但华尔街资深基金经理仍在避免投资风险并大幅降低股票仓位。油价虽暴跌但今年以来仍大幅走高，镍期货市场仍处于动荡之中，小麦价格接近历史高位，所有这些都在煽动通胀飙升，各大央行可能被迫采取行动。“对大宗商品供应的担忧增加了许多经济体陷入衰退境地的可能性，”Ned Davis Research首席美国市场策略师Ed  Clissold在给客户的报告中写道。“虽然美国比大多数国家能更好地抵御通胀冲击，但至少要考虑到经济放缓幅度大于预期的风险。”Clissold指出，债券市场正发出的有关潜在经济衰退信号，大宗商品价格飙升对需求正构成威胁，他补充称：“现在是时候减持股票并手握现金了。”其他资深基金经理也同样担心可能出现经济衰退，Carmignac  Gestion将其投资组合中的股票比例从平均40%削减至5%，高盛建议投资者买入实物资产、黄金和美元等避险货币，而William  Blair投资管理公司则出售了与欧洲金融公司相关的资产。对整体经济前景的担忧——低增长和高通胀的危险组合，也出现在其他地方，最明显的是债券实际收益率，自俄乌冲突以来，10年期美国通胀保值债券(TIPS)的收益率下降了40个基点，至约-1%，而全球股市从近期高点下跌近15%。这种新的动态与十多年来一直存在的动态形成了鲜明对比，多年来各大央行降息和购买债券使得金融环境保持宽松，风险资产保持吸引力，即使是在新冠疫情造成的严重衰退期间亦是如此。现在的问题是，新的不确定性和潜在的增长放缓，是否会推迟全球各大央行的加息计划。但是随着通胀率续创40年来的新高且仍未见顶，以及能源价格飙升，政策制定者可能无法承受落后于收益率曲线的后果。“各大央行将竭尽所能提高利率，尤其是在没有出现衰退的情况下。”William Blair合伙人兼动态配置策略主管Brian  Singer表示。“他们需要，而且我认为他们希望稍微提高利率，这样即使经济放缓，他们仍有一些回旋余地。”总部位于巴黎的资管巨头Carmignac早在1月份就将持股比例降至20%，在俄乌冲突升级之后进一步分批降至5%，该公司现在青睐长期债券。该公司投资委员会成员Kevin  Thozet表示:“即使在冲突之前，对滞胀趋势的识别，也让我们采取了更谨慎的持仓比例，并减少了风险资产的配置敞口。”“我们现在非常关注高质量增长，以及医疗保健、日用消费品等防御性领域，以及那些在大宗商品价格高企和利率上升的背景下可能更有韧性的细分领域。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632604290,"gmtCreate":1646376211160,"gmtModify":1646376211160,"author":{"id":"3549332550097549","authorId":"3549332550097549","name":"哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怎么看出来通胀见顶了","listText":"怎么看出来通胀见顶了","text":"怎么看出来通胀见顶了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632604290","repostId":"2216437443","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2216437443","pubTimestamp":1646373900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2216437443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-04 14:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"机构：美联储“逆通胀加息”的结局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216437443","media":"兴业研究","summary":"加息初期和增长见顶时标普500易受到负面冲击","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>目前市场主流预期美国通胀第一季度见顶后回落，而美联储将在3月开启连续加息，并将在年内缩表。美联储在通胀增速下行期紧缩，这样的情景在二战后只发生过四次。</p><p>历史上的四次“逆通胀加息”后经济增长通常见顶，随后经济放缓甚至衰退。加息初期和增长见顶时标普500易受到负面冲击。连续加息时，美债10Y收益率倾向于随加息上行，但期限利差下行并不顺畅。除“尼克松冲击”此种极端情景外，美元指数趋于走强。大宗商品在加息之初通常维持强势，此后随通胀增速回落而出现震荡调整。 </p><p>展望2022年，当前大宗商品正处于“开采周期”向“投资周期”过渡阶段，对于美联储紧缩的敏感度降低，可能因供给瓶颈和长期通胀预期的转变而上涨。美债利率与美元指数继续强势，美股表现不佳，黄金受益于滞涨环境而受到资金追捧。</p><p>当前市场普遍认为第一季度后美国CPI同比增速将逐步回落，同时预期美联储将从今年3月后进入连续加息周期。俄乌冲突令市场对美联储激进加息的预期大幅降温，但加息3-4次（每次25bp）仍是主流预期。倘若市场预期正确，这意味着至少在年内，美联储将在通胀下行期多次加息。我们将此称为“逆通胀加息”。这样的情景在二战后较为少见，我们将逐一复盘当时的背景和大类资产表现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1bfec06856ccca825c5d16adfac7847\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3642e0ea93252717f475536765cf774d\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h3>一、二战后仅有四次</h3><p>1971年之前以最优贷款利率作为基准利率，此后以联邦基金目标利率作为政策利率。二战后仅有四次“逆通胀加息”，其中三次都发生在1982年之前，还有一次在1997年，但仅加息一次（25bp）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840ad996b5fd761a37a8415bda594536\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"1039\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1958-1959：马丁扼杀摇篮中的通胀</b></p><p>1957年是二战后第一次全球衰退，既有从战后重建到盛极而衰的周期宿命，也有美联储持续紧缩的推波助澜。1956年后美国CPI增速明显回升。1957年美国时任总统艾森豪威尔得到国会授权，动用2亿美元给予中东国家经济和军事援助。美国财政支出大幅增长进一步加剧了通胀压力。时任美联储主席马丁遏制通胀的态度非常坚决，1955年后美联储开始持续提高利率，在1957年经济衰退后短暂降息，但在1958年下半年经济形势好转后美联储很快恢复加息。</p><p>伴随着美联储持续紧缩，1959年CPI增速已经低于1%，但工业产出增速也在通胀触底时见顶，1960年美国经济再次衰退。“逆通胀加息”过程中：（1）标普500基本与经济增长同时见顶，此后震荡回落。（2）美债10Y收益率与最优贷款利率同步走高。（3）布雷顿森林体系下黄金价格尚未浮动，但在不远的1960年，美元遭遇信任危机，“特里芬两难”被提出，黄金大涨。（4）与黄金类似，由于西方国家控制，原油价格波动很小，在加息压力下小幅下降，OPEC直至1960年才成立。（5）铜价无惧美联储加息压力，随美联储加息上涨，并在1959年加息阶段性结束后触顶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57226c627c6e3fb22161449b5a7b6798\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1971-1972：大通胀中的短暂喘息</b></p><p>1971年上半年美联储仍在延续经济衰退后的宽松政策，但从6月开始大幅加息，主要因这一时期出现美元危机，资金大量外流欧洲，5月德国率先宣布汇率浮动，随后欧洲货币陆续开始汇率浮动并对美元大幅升值。1971年8月尼克松宣布关闭美元黄金兑换窗口，布雷顿森林解体。当年10、11月美联储小幅降息，联邦基金利率维持在5%直至1973年。不过1972年下半年最优贷款利率开始抬升。这一时期CPI同比增速从5%以上回落至3%左右。与1958-1959年情况类似，1973年初工业产出增速在CPI触底约半年后触顶，1973年末美国经济衰退。</p><p>此次“逆通胀加息”期间：（1）标普500在1971年加息时有明显的持续调整，美联储降息并维持联邦基金利率目标不变后，标普500恢复上涨，直至下一次快速加息到来。（2）美债10Y收益率跟随最优贷款利率波动，在1972年联邦基金利率不变、最优贷款利率上行的情况下，美债收益率小幅走高。（3）美债期限溢价方面，在1971年最优贷款利率走高时有流畅下行，但在1971年联邦基金利率提高和1972年最优贷款利率提高时都没有出现持续下行，甚至有较大反弹。（4）美元指数因1971年“尼克松冲击”持续暴跌，直至1972年最优贷款利率走高才带来小幅反弹。（5）美元信用崩溃，黄金正式自由浮动，进入牛市初期。美联储加息并不能阻挡金价持续上涨。（6）原油价格基本稳定，这是1973年暴风雨前最后的宁静。（7）铜价与CPI增速波动较为一致，随CPI下行见底，在新一轮快速加息中将和原油、黄金共振上涨。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4638aa9c1eb46920bf4919f391d073ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1980-1981：大通胀见顶</b></p><p>1980年沃尔克出任美联储主席，为了展现对抗通胀的决心，在1980年经济复苏后立即重启快速加息，这也被认为直接导致了1981年的二次衰退。这一时期CPI同比增速由15%以上回落至10%以下。</p><p>尽管美联储加息非常激进，但也很快扭转了通胀预期，给金融市场带来的也并非只有恐慌：（1）标普500持续上涨至1980年末，随后高位震荡，直至1981年经济衰退才显著下跌。（2）美债10Y收益率随联邦基金目标利率一路上行，10Y-3Y期限利差因短端利率快速抬升而出现下行。（3）美联储抗击通胀的决心重建了市场对于美元的新任，美元指数随着激进加息持续走强。（4）作为美元的对立面，黄金随着CPI增速下降而震荡下行，完成了大牛市中的第二个顶部。（5）加息初期原油价格略有回落，但在1980年9月两伊战争爆发后油价重新逼近前高。（6）铜价也大致随CPI增速逐渐走低。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc78bb8ef2f3d0d8a05cc1f084112f17\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1997：25bp的蝴蝶效应</b></p><p>1997年3月，美联储加息25bp后维持利率不变直至1998年下半年开启降息。这一时期工业产出增速在1997年末触顶，CPI增速持续下行，由近3%降至不及1.5%。1997年7月，泰国宣布放弃固定汇率制，东南亚金融危机爆发。1998年下半年发生“狙击港币”、俄罗斯债务危机、长期资本管理公司（LTCM，Long-TermCapital Management）倒闭等事件。</p><p>这一时期：（1）标普500整体保持了上涨趋势，在1997年3月加息和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲金融</a>危机期间出现了短暂调整。更大程度的调整发生在1998年下半年。（2）美债10Y收益率在加息后短暂上行，随着市场打消对美联储持续加息的预期，长端收益率逐步下行，10Y-3Y期限利差也随之走低。（3）强势美股与美元指数相互扶持，美元指数站上100，表现强势。（4）这一时期处于大宗商品“开采周期”，黄金、原油、铜整体表现一般，在加息之初有过短暂上涨，但随着CPI增速回落，大宗商品价格也持续走低。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd551adc19e54a8e3ce827bdcf6fe177\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h3>二、“逆周期加息”小结及启示</h3><p>回顾四次“逆通胀加息”：（1）均对应工业产出增速见顶；（2）标普500在加息初期易受到负面冲击，在工业产出见顶时也面临调整压力；（3）除1997年仅加息一次25bp，其余情况下10Y收益率和期限利差均倾向于随联邦基金利率上行；（4）除1971年“尼克松冲击”，美元指数均趋于上行；（5）大宗商品在加息之初通常会保持强势，此后随着CPI增速下降出现震荡调整行情。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8925233d0b6421380a545413454141\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"1468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>2022年美联储将重现“逆通胀加息”，从历史经验看，美国经济增长进一步减速的压力加大。大类资产方面，标普500可能继续受到加息、缩表的负面冲击。类似2018年的连续加息和缩表并行将推升美债长端收益率，且期限利率下行恐不如过往的加息周期顺畅。在欧央行紧缩路线明确前，美元指数还有望保持强势，但进一步大幅上行的动力不足。大宗商品正处于“开采周期”向“投资周期”过渡阶段，对于美联储紧缩的敏感度降低，可能因供给瓶颈和长期通胀预期的转变而上涨。黄金则受益于滞涨环境，受到资金追捧。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>机构：美联储“逆通胀加息”的结局</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n机构：美联储“逆通胀加息”的结局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-04 14:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/512881><strong>兴业研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>目前市场主流预期美国通胀第一季度见顶后回落，而美联储将在3月开启连续加息，并将在年内缩表。美联储在通胀增速下行期紧缩，这样的情景在二战后只发生过四次。历史上的四次“逆通胀加息”后经济增长通常见顶，随后经济放缓甚至衰退。加息初期和增长见顶时标普500易受到负面冲击。连续加息时，美债10Y收益率倾向于随加息上行，但期限利差下行并不顺畅。除“尼克松冲击”此种极端情景外，美元指数趋于走强。大宗商品在加息...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/512881\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/512881","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2216437443","content_text":"目前市场主流预期美国通胀第一季度见顶后回落，而美联储将在3月开启连续加息，并将在年内缩表。美联储在通胀增速下行期紧缩，这样的情景在二战后只发生过四次。历史上的四次“逆通胀加息”后经济增长通常见顶，随后经济放缓甚至衰退。加息初期和增长见顶时标普500易受到负面冲击。连续加息时，美债10Y收益率倾向于随加息上行，但期限利差下行并不顺畅。除“尼克松冲击”此种极端情景外，美元指数趋于走强。大宗商品在加息之初通常维持强势，此后随通胀增速回落而出现震荡调整。 展望2022年，当前大宗商品正处于“开采周期”向“投资周期”过渡阶段，对于美联储紧缩的敏感度降低，可能因供给瓶颈和长期通胀预期的转变而上涨。美债利率与美元指数继续强势，美股表现不佳，黄金受益于滞涨环境而受到资金追捧。当前市场普遍认为第一季度后美国CPI同比增速将逐步回落，同时预期美联储将从今年3月后进入连续加息周期。俄乌冲突令市场对美联储激进加息的预期大幅降温，但加息3-4次（每次25bp）仍是主流预期。倘若市场预期正确，这意味着至少在年内，美联储将在通胀下行期多次加息。我们将此称为“逆通胀加息”。这样的情景在二战后较为少见，我们将逐一复盘当时的背景和大类资产表现。一、二战后仅有四次1971年之前以最优贷款利率作为基准利率，此后以联邦基金目标利率作为政策利率。二战后仅有四次“逆通胀加息”，其中三次都发生在1982年之前，还有一次在1997年，但仅加息一次（25bp）。1958-1959：马丁扼杀摇篮中的通胀1957年是二战后第一次全球衰退，既有从战后重建到盛极而衰的周期宿命，也有美联储持续紧缩的推波助澜。1956年后美国CPI增速明显回升。1957年美国时任总统艾森豪威尔得到国会授权，动用2亿美元给予中东国家经济和军事援助。美国财政支出大幅增长进一步加剧了通胀压力。时任美联储主席马丁遏制通胀的态度非常坚决，1955年后美联储开始持续提高利率，在1957年经济衰退后短暂降息，但在1958年下半年经济形势好转后美联储很快恢复加息。伴随着美联储持续紧缩，1959年CPI增速已经低于1%，但工业产出增速也在通胀触底时见顶，1960年美国经济再次衰退。“逆通胀加息”过程中：（1）标普500基本与经济增长同时见顶，此后震荡回落。（2）美债10Y收益率与最优贷款利率同步走高。（3）布雷顿森林体系下黄金价格尚未浮动，但在不远的1960年，美元遭遇信任危机，“特里芬两难”被提出，黄金大涨。（4）与黄金类似，由于西方国家控制，原油价格波动很小，在加息压力下小幅下降，OPEC直至1960年才成立。（5）铜价无惧美联储加息压力，随美联储加息上涨，并在1959年加息阶段性结束后触顶。1971-1972：大通胀中的短暂喘息1971年上半年美联储仍在延续经济衰退后的宽松政策，但从6月开始大幅加息，主要因这一时期出现美元危机，资金大量外流欧洲，5月德国率先宣布汇率浮动，随后欧洲货币陆续开始汇率浮动并对美元大幅升值。1971年8月尼克松宣布关闭美元黄金兑换窗口，布雷顿森林解体。当年10、11月美联储小幅降息，联邦基金利率维持在5%直至1973年。不过1972年下半年最优贷款利率开始抬升。这一时期CPI同比增速从5%以上回落至3%左右。与1958-1959年情况类似，1973年初工业产出增速在CPI触底约半年后触顶，1973年末美国经济衰退。此次“逆通胀加息”期间：（1）标普500在1971年加息时有明显的持续调整，美联储降息并维持联邦基金利率目标不变后，标普500恢复上涨，直至下一次快速加息到来。（2）美债10Y收益率跟随最优贷款利率波动，在1972年联邦基金利率不变、最优贷款利率上行的情况下，美债收益率小幅走高。（3）美债期限溢价方面，在1971年最优贷款利率走高时有流畅下行，但在1971年联邦基金利率提高和1972年最优贷款利率提高时都没有出现持续下行，甚至有较大反弹。（4）美元指数因1971年“尼克松冲击”持续暴跌，直至1972年最优贷款利率走高才带来小幅反弹。（5）美元信用崩溃，黄金正式自由浮动，进入牛市初期。美联储加息并不能阻挡金价持续上涨。（6）原油价格基本稳定，这是1973年暴风雨前最后的宁静。（7）铜价与CPI增速波动较为一致，随CPI下行见底，在新一轮快速加息中将和原油、黄金共振上涨。1980-1981：大通胀见顶1980年沃尔克出任美联储主席，为了展现对抗通胀的决心，在1980年经济复苏后立即重启快速加息，这也被认为直接导致了1981年的二次衰退。这一时期CPI同比增速由15%以上回落至10%以下。尽管美联储加息非常激进，但也很快扭转了通胀预期，给金融市场带来的也并非只有恐慌：（1）标普500持续上涨至1980年末，随后高位震荡，直至1981年经济衰退才显著下跌。（2）美债10Y收益率随联邦基金目标利率一路上行，10Y-3Y期限利差因短端利率快速抬升而出现下行。（3）美联储抗击通胀的决心重建了市场对于美元的新任，美元指数随着激进加息持续走强。（4）作为美元的对立面，黄金随着CPI增速下降而震荡下行，完成了大牛市中的第二个顶部。（5）加息初期原油价格略有回落，但在1980年9月两伊战争爆发后油价重新逼近前高。（6）铜价也大致随CPI增速逐渐走低。1997：25bp的蝴蝶效应1997年3月，美联储加息25bp后维持利率不变直至1998年下半年开启降息。这一时期工业产出增速在1997年末触顶，CPI增速持续下行，由近3%降至不及1.5%。1997年7月，泰国宣布放弃固定汇率制，东南亚金融危机爆发。1998年下半年发生“狙击港币”、俄罗斯债务危机、长期资本管理公司（LTCM，Long-TermCapital Management）倒闭等事件。这一时期：（1）标普500整体保持了上涨趋势，在1997年3月加息和亚洲金融危机期间出现了短暂调整。更大程度的调整发生在1998年下半年。（2）美债10Y收益率在加息后短暂上行，随着市场打消对美联储持续加息的预期，长端收益率逐步下行，10Y-3Y期限利差也随之走低。（3）强势美股与美元指数相互扶持，美元指数站上100，表现强势。（4）这一时期处于大宗商品“开采周期”，黄金、原油、铜整体表现一般，在加息之初有过短暂上涨，但随着CPI增速回落，大宗商品价格也持续走低。二、“逆周期加息”小结及启示回顾四次“逆通胀加息”：（1）均对应工业产出增速见顶；（2）标普500在加息初期易受到负面冲击，在工业产出见顶时也面临调整压力；（3）除1997年仅加息一次25bp，其余情况下10Y收益率和期限利差均倾向于随联邦基金利率上行；（4）除1971年“尼克松冲击”，美元指数均趋于上行；（5）大宗商品在加息之初通常会保持强势，此后随着CPI增速下降出现震荡调整行情。2022年美联储将重现“逆通胀加息”，从历史经验看，美国经济增长进一步减速的压力加大。大类资产方面，标普500可能继续受到加息、缩表的负面冲击。类似2018年的连续加息和缩表并行将推升美债长端收益率，且期限利率下行恐不如过往的加息周期顺畅。在欧央行紧缩路线明确前，美元指数还有望保持强势，但进一步大幅上行的动力不足。大宗商品正处于“开采周期”向“投资周期”过渡阶段，对于美联储紧缩的敏感度降低，可能因供给瓶颈和长期通胀预期的转变而上涨。黄金则受益于滞涨环境，受到资金追捧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636182459,"gmtCreate":1645706167765,"gmtModify":1645706167765,"author":{"id":"3549332550097549","authorId":"3549332550097549","name":"哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Inc.(FUBO)$千载难逢的做多机会，立帖为证","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636182459","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549332550097549","authorId":"3549332550097549","name":"哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我直接买了call","text":"我直接买了call","html":"我直接买了call"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631858691,"gmtCreate":1644592460851,"gmtModify":1644592460851,"author":{"id":"3549332550097549","authorId":"3549332550097549","name":"哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>消费者信心指数崩了，这东西不亚于cpi。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>消费者信心指数崩了，这东西不亚于cpi。","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$ 消费者信心指数崩了，这东西不亚于cpi。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631858691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631827361,"gmtCreate":1644590564603,"gmtModify":1644590564603,"author":{"id":"3549332550097549","authorId":"3549332550097549","name":"哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>感觉木头姐在这个区域all.in了，跌的话。。。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>感觉木头姐在这个区域all.in了，跌的话。。。。。","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$感觉木头姐在这个区域all.in了，跌的话。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631827361","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631817632,"gmtCreate":1644578316163,"gmtModify":1644578743291,"author":{"id":"3549332550097549","authorId":"3549332550097549","name":"哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦哦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛皮啊，赚发了美国银行","listText":"牛皮啊，赚发了美国银行","text":"牛皮啊，赚发了美国银行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631817632","repostId":"2210854848","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2210854848","pubTimestamp":1644572105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2210854848?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-11 17:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国银行Q4持仓：增持纳指100看跌期权，重仓微软、苹果","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210854848","media":"智通财经网","summary":"根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露，美国银行递交了截至2021年12月31日的第四季度持仓报告(13F)。据统计，该公司四季度持仓总市值约1.03万亿美元，上一季度总市值为9690.61亿美元，环比","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>递交了截至2021年12月31日的第四季度持仓报告(13F)。</p><p>据统计，该公司四季度持仓总市值约1.03万亿美元，上一季度总市值为9690.61亿美元，环比增长约0.63%。该公司在四季度的投资组合中新增了889只个股，增持了3911只个股，减持了3150只个股，清仓了591只个股。其中前十大持仓标的占总市值的16.29%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c86975f32b8caf7bda801776d601a98\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>从持仓偏好来看</b>，金融、IT类及医疗保健个股位列前三，占总持仓的比例分别为45.64%，15.47%以及8.21%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38a78eec8047828fc23495eab1554b\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>前五大重仓资产中，</b>纳斯达克100指数ETF看跌期权位列第一，持仓约6154.6万股，持仓市值约244.9亿美元，较上季度持仓数量增加了79%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>位列第二，持仓约7189.9万股，持仓市值约241.8亿美元，较上季度持仓数量下降了1%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>位列第三，持仓约1.3亿股，持仓市值约230.9亿美元，较上季度持仓数量下降了4%。</p><p>iShare安硕核心MSCI EAFE  ETF位列第四，持仓约2.4亿股，持仓市值约181.8亿美元，较上季度持仓数量增加了5%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">标普500指数ETF</a>位列第五，持仓约3643.4万股，持仓市值约173.0亿美元，较上季度持仓数量增加了6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59b7f0d9f0382f191797c2971d66a036\" tg-width=\"1359\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>从持仓比例变化来看，前五大买入标的分别是：</b>纳斯达克100指数ETF看跌期权、特许通讯公司看跌期权、标普500指数ETF、纳斯达克100指数ETF以及苹果看涨期权。</p><p><b>前五大卖出标的分别是：</b>Vanguard<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">标普500ETF</a>指数ETF、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>标普500ETF指数、标普500指数看跌期权、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IWM\">罗素2000指数ETF</a>看跌期权以及花旗集团。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b504c427b5cf46d8ca1ba42828b69c4e\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国银行Q4持仓：增持纳指100看跌期权，重仓微软、苹果</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国银行Q4持仓：增持纳指100看跌期权，重仓微软、苹果\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-11 17:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/657517.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露，美国银行递交了截至2021年12月31日的第四季度持仓报告(13F)。据统计，该公司四季度持仓总市值约1.03万亿美元，上一季度总市值为9690.61亿美元，环比增长约0.63%。该公司在四季度的投资组合中新增了889只个股，增持了3911只个股，减持了3150只个股，清仓了591只个股。其中前十大持仓标的占总市值的16.29%。从持仓偏好来看，金融、IT类及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/657517.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8315871b7825a6012ca216e231cb470e","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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