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初来乍到没关照

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初来乍到没关照

2021-09-15

写的什么laji还发出来丢人现眼

老虎盘前观察：加州州长成功留任！对下届总统选举的预示

初来乍到没关照

2021-09-15

还删我跟帖[捂脸]

抱歉，原内容已删除

初来乍到没关照

2020-12-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$现在的股票真是不讲股德啊，动不动就拉高增发…

初来乍到没关照

2020-11-04

$Twitter(TWTR)$推特是不作不死

初来乍到没关照

2020-11-03

$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$亚马逊(AMZN)$华美银行莫名其妙被销户大家遇到过吗？电话客服说是风控部门核查有交易风险要关闭账户，也不给具体理由…

初来乍到没关照

2020-10-30

$Facebook(FB)$财报这么好为什么跌了？

初来乍到没关照

2020-10-28

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 民主党联合华尔街搞事情而已，不用担心

初来乍到没关照

2020-09-01

$Zoom(ZM)$中概真是牲口

初来乍到没关照

2020-07-20

$亚马逊(AMZN)$亚马逊疯了

初来乍到没关照

2020-07-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉真是畜生啊，十来天要翻倍吗！

初来乍到没关照

2020-07-01

$Sea Ltd(SE)$@川普之声这股怎么走啊，这几天咋不说话了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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20:53","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"老虎盘前观察：加州州长成功留任！对下届总统选举的预示","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178162685","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"盘前观察\n美股盘前小涨，澳门博彩股盘前大跌，美国天然气期货价格继续上涨（9月累计上涨近25%）。\n》》》盘前：中概股跌势难止！区块链概念股集体走高\n加州州长成功留任——对2022/2024年选举的预示","content":"<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前小涨，澳门博彩股盘前大跌，美国天然气期货价格继续上涨（9月累计上涨近25%）。</p>\n<p><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117637777\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前：中概股跌势难止！区块链概念股集体走高</b></a></p>\n<p><b>加州州长成功留任——对2022/2024年选举的预示</b></p>\n<p>加州州长在“罢免”选举中成功留任，没有重蹈2003年民主党“罢免”选举中输给电影明星的覆辙。如果细看选举结果，有很多有趣的细节。</p>\n<p>1，投票人数超过2018年州长大选（也是期中选举）投票人数。2018年选举的时候，大概有1,200万加州居民投票。但是昨天的“罢免”选举，根据纽约时报的数据推算，应该有1,300万加州居民投票（目前公布了67%的选票结果，对应900万选票），这和加州提供越来越宽松的投票环境有着直接关系。这次“罢免”选举，加州将2,000多万选票，直接邮寄给选民，还附上了免邮资的返回信封。</p>\n<p>可以想象，关于邮寄选票和选票作弊等这一系列讨论，将继续延续到2024年大选。为什么民主党喜欢邮寄选票而共和党坚决反对，我原来做过分析。核心原因就是共和党的选民，无论是经济富裕阶层还是农民阶层，时间都相对富裕，愿意排队几十分钟甚至几个小时投票。而民主党的选民，很多都是小时工，如果要花几小时投票，就减少了相应收入，投票意愿大幅下降。</p>\n<p>不过，因为邮寄选票就攻击选票作弊这个做法，对于共和党是最不划算的生意。有研究显示，正是因为川普在2020年大选之后，无休止的攻击大选作弊，特别是佐治亚州。所以才导致了在佐治亚州的参议员特殊选举中，共和党的选民不投票。</p>\n<p>2，民主党两派（极左派和温和派）都在党内拉帮结伙。Newsom作为加州州长，年纪不大，在民主党是属于可以推向全国舞台的理想人选。这次Newsom遇到了危机，不仅让拜登飞到加州助选，更是召唤了民主党几乎所有大佬们的支持，包括奥巴马，Sanders，Warren等中间派和极左派的支持，这种现象非常少见。</p>\n<p>民主党的一个内部问题，就是年轻的政客们，越来越自由化。从全国范围来看，美国年轻人喜欢Sanders这样的极左派，已经是一个事实，这让拜登和奥巴马这样的中间派非常苦恼。为了顶住极左派对于民主党的快速侵蚀，他们也放下了身段，力捧年轻人。现在的美国副总统Harris，就属于民主党中间派拉拢有自由派苗头的年轻政客的一个例子。拜登对那些初次登台的国会议员的年轻人，更是想尽办法拉拢。</p>\n<p>3，Newsom留任的支持占比，高于2018年选举州长选举，也高于2020年拜登在加州的总统大选。2018年Newsom首次赢下州长支持占比是61.9%，2020年拜登赢下加州支持占比是63.48%，今年“罢免”选举Newsom的支持占比是64.2%。虽然今年的票还有1/3没有统计，但是考虑到没有统计的票多半是邮寄选票，所以Newsom的支持比例会更高。</p>\n<p>Newsom能够轻松赢下这次“罢免”选举，核心原因只有一个，就是选举策略成功——将对手刻画成“川普克隆”。客观来说，加州的疫苗接种率属于全美最高州之一，感染率属于全美最低州之一。但是，长时间的关闭商业确实让加州居民都心生怨念。再加上这两年加州山火不断，Newsom的客观民意下降很快，不然也不会有那么多签名支持“罢免”选举了。</p>\n<p>但是Newsom的选举策略对了，就是把对手刻画成“川普克隆”。拜登到了加州以后，继续延续这个策略（“You either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor or you’ll get Donald Trump,”）。这个选举策略成功的为Newsom扳回了失去的民意。民主选举，“比好”越来越难，“比烂”是常态。</p>\n<p>这个选举结果，长舒一口气的不是Newsom，而是拜登。2024年大选，拜登有机会遇到川普，也有机会遇到川普克隆——佛罗里达州州长DeSantis。无论是谁，拜登要想连任的可能性，不在于自己做得有多好，就是在于唤醒美国人民特别是中间派，对于川普的厌恶。没有一人能像川普一样团结共和党，更没有一人能像川普一样团结民主党。</p>\n<p>如果明天就是2024年总统大选，拜登依然能赢下川普。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bccbb9d6c98dc565818ec812508fd704\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"82\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p>嘉楠科技(CAN)：2季度营收增长507%，盘前涨4%。第2季度营收¥1.675亿，去年同期¥1.781亿；净利润¥2.450亿，去年同期净亏损¥1,680万。</p>\n<p>晶科能源(JKS)：2季度总出货量增长16.4%，盘前涨1%。第2季度营收¥79.3亿，净利润¥2.747亿。</p>\n<p>辉瑞(PFE) &amp; BioNTech(BNTX)：据报道，辉瑞预计将于11月向美国申请批准其针对6个月至5岁儿童的新冠疫苗。此前该公司CEO表示，或将在10月底前公布5岁以下儿童的新冠疫苗数据。</p>\n<p>再生元制药(REGN)：五角大楼将再次购买140万剂新冠抗体鸡尾酒药品。美政府购买总量将达到近300万剂，价值$29.4亿。</p>\n<p>微软(MSFT)：宣布授权至多$600亿的股票回购计划。同时，微软将季度股息分红由$0.56上调至$0.62。</p>\n<p>高盛(GS)：将收购金融科技独角兽GreenSky(GSKY)，交易价值$22.4亿。GreenSky于2018年以约$40亿上市，高盛收购价格较GreenSky周二收盘价高出55%。GreenSky是先买后付类金融科技平台之一。</p>\n<p>百胜中国(BEST)：警告Delta变异毒株或将导致3季度利润下降50%-60%。百胜中国表示，8月限制了500+家餐厅的服务。</p>\n<p>腾讯音乐(TME)：推出亿元激励计划4.0，音乐人签约后首年可享受高达100%分成。同时，该计划还为音乐人带来全面覆盖的流量激励机制，流量激励提升50%。</p>\n<p><b>其它</b></p>\n<p>全球累计确诊225,893,613例，累计死亡4,651,193例。美国确诊41,367,771例，死亡663,963例。纽约州目前确诊2,345,068例，死亡54,693例。</p>\n<p>杨洁篪在北京以视频方式会见美国民主、共和两党代表。</p>\n<p>拜登将与迪士尼(DIS)、微软(MSFT)、Walsgreens(WBA)等企业高管会面，讨论疫苗接种要求。</p>\n<p>澳门特区政府针对博彩业的监管新规开始45天公开咨询。</p>\n<p>国家网信办发布平台信息内容主体责任文件，系统提出平台履行信息内容管理责任的要求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bccbb9d6c98dc565818ec812508fd704\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"82\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎盘前观察：加州州长成功留任！对下届总统选举的预示</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎盘前观察：加州州长成功留任！对下届总统选举的预示\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-15 20:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前小涨，澳门博彩股盘前大跌，美国天然气期货价格继续上涨（9月累计上涨近25%）。</p>\n<p><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117637777\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前：中概股跌势难止！区块链概念股集体走高</b></a></p>\n<p><b>加州州长成功留任——对2022/2024年选举的预示</b></p>\n<p>加州州长在“罢免”选举中成功留任，没有重蹈2003年民主党“罢免”选举中输给电影明星的覆辙。如果细看选举结果，有很多有趣的细节。</p>\n<p>1，投票人数超过2018年州长大选（也是期中选举）投票人数。2018年选举的时候，大概有1,200万加州居民投票。但是昨天的“罢免”选举，根据纽约时报的数据推算，应该有1,300万加州居民投票（目前公布了67%的选票结果，对应900万选票），这和加州提供越来越宽松的投票环境有着直接关系。这次“罢免”选举，加州将2,000多万选票，直接邮寄给选民，还附上了免邮资的返回信封。</p>\n<p>可以想象，关于邮寄选票和选票作弊等这一系列讨论，将继续延续到2024年大选。为什么民主党喜欢邮寄选票而共和党坚决反对，我原来做过分析。核心原因就是共和党的选民，无论是经济富裕阶层还是农民阶层，时间都相对富裕，愿意排队几十分钟甚至几个小时投票。而民主党的选民，很多都是小时工，如果要花几小时投票，就减少了相应收入，投票意愿大幅下降。</p>\n<p>不过，因为邮寄选票就攻击选票作弊这个做法，对于共和党是最不划算的生意。有研究显示，正是因为川普在2020年大选之后，无休止的攻击大选作弊，特别是佐治亚州。所以才导致了在佐治亚州的参议员特殊选举中，共和党的选民不投票。</p>\n<p>2，民主党两派（极左派和温和派）都在党内拉帮结伙。Newsom作为加州州长，年纪不大，在民主党是属于可以推向全国舞台的理想人选。这次Newsom遇到了危机，不仅让拜登飞到加州助选，更是召唤了民主党几乎所有大佬们的支持，包括奥巴马，Sanders，Warren等中间派和极左派的支持，这种现象非常少见。</p>\n<p>民主党的一个内部问题，就是年轻的政客们，越来越自由化。从全国范围来看，美国年轻人喜欢Sanders这样的极左派，已经是一个事实，这让拜登和奥巴马这样的中间派非常苦恼。为了顶住极左派对于民主党的快速侵蚀，他们也放下了身段，力捧年轻人。现在的美国副总统Harris，就属于民主党中间派拉拢有自由派苗头的年轻政客的一个例子。拜登对那些初次登台的国会议员的年轻人，更是想尽办法拉拢。</p>\n<p>3，Newsom留任的支持占比，高于2018年选举州长选举，也高于2020年拜登在加州的总统大选。2018年Newsom首次赢下州长支持占比是61.9%，2020年拜登赢下加州支持占比是63.48%，今年“罢免”选举Newsom的支持占比是64.2%。虽然今年的票还有1/3没有统计，但是考虑到没有统计的票多半是邮寄选票，所以Newsom的支持比例会更高。</p>\n<p>Newsom能够轻松赢下这次“罢免”选举，核心原因只有一个，就是选举策略成功——将对手刻画成“川普克隆”。客观来说，加州的疫苗接种率属于全美最高州之一，感染率属于全美最低州之一。但是，长时间的关闭商业确实让加州居民都心生怨念。再加上这两年加州山火不断，Newsom的客观民意下降很快，不然也不会有那么多签名支持“罢免”选举了。</p>\n<p>但是Newsom的选举策略对了，就是把对手刻画成“川普克隆”。拜登到了加州以后，继续延续这个策略（“You either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor or you’ll get Donald Trump,”）。这个选举策略成功的为Newsom扳回了失去的民意。民主选举，“比好”越来越难，“比烂”是常态。</p>\n<p>这个选举结果，长舒一口气的不是Newsom，而是拜登。2024年大选，拜登有机会遇到川普，也有机会遇到川普克隆——佛罗里达州州长DeSantis。无论是谁，拜登要想连任的可能性，不在于自己做得有多好，就是在于唤醒美国人民特别是中间派，对于川普的厌恶。没有一人能像川普一样团结共和党，更没有一人能像川普一样团结民主党。</p>\n<p>如果明天就是2024年总统大选，拜登依然能赢下川普。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bccbb9d6c98dc565818ec812508fd704\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"82\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p>嘉楠科技(CAN)：2季度营收增长507%，盘前涨4%。第2季度营收¥1.675亿，去年同期¥1.781亿；净利润¥2.450亿，去年同期净亏损¥1,680万。</p>\n<p>晶科能源(JKS)：2季度总出货量增长16.4%，盘前涨1%。第2季度营收¥79.3亿，净利润¥2.747亿。</p>\n<p>辉瑞(PFE) &amp; BioNTech(BNTX)：据报道，辉瑞预计将于11月向美国申请批准其针对6个月至5岁儿童的新冠疫苗。此前该公司CEO表示，或将在10月底前公布5岁以下儿童的新冠疫苗数据。</p>\n<p>再生元制药(REGN)：五角大楼将再次购买140万剂新冠抗体鸡尾酒药品。美政府购买总量将达到近300万剂，价值$29.4亿。</p>\n<p>微软(MSFT)：宣布授权至多$600亿的股票回购计划。同时，微软将季度股息分红由$0.56上调至$0.62。</p>\n<p>高盛(GS)：将收购金融科技独角兽GreenSky(GSKY)，交易价值$22.4亿。GreenSky于2018年以约$40亿上市，高盛收购价格较GreenSky周二收盘价高出55%。GreenSky是先买后付类金融科技平台之一。</p>\n<p>百胜中国(BEST)：警告Delta变异毒株或将导致3季度利润下降50%-60%。百胜中国表示，8月限制了500+家餐厅的服务。</p>\n<p>腾讯音乐(TME)：推出亿元激励计划4.0，音乐人签约后首年可享受高达100%分成。同时，该计划还为音乐人带来全面覆盖的流量激励机制，流量激励提升50%。</p>\n<p><b>其它</b></p>\n<p>全球累计确诊225,893,613例，累计死亡4,651,193例。美国确诊41,367,771例，死亡663,963例。纽约州目前确诊2,345,068例，死亡54,693例。</p>\n<p>杨洁篪在北京以视频方式会见美国民主、共和两党代表。</p>\n<p>拜登将与迪士尼(DIS)、微软(MSFT)、Walsgreens(WBA)等企业高管会面，讨论疫苗接种要求。</p>\n<p>澳门特区政府针对博彩业的监管新规开始45天公开咨询。</p>\n<p>国家网信办发布平台信息内容主体责任文件，系统提出平台履行信息内容管理责任的要求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bccbb9d6c98dc565818ec812508fd704\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"82\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178162685","content_text":"盘前观察\n美股盘前小涨，澳门博彩股盘前大跌，美国天然气期货价格继续上涨（9月累计上涨近25%）。\n》》》盘前：中概股跌势难止！区块链概念股集体走高\n加州州长成功留任——对2022/2024年选举的预示\n加州州长在“罢免”选举中成功留任，没有重蹈2003年民主党“罢免”选举中输给电影明星的覆辙。如果细看选举结果，有很多有趣的细节。\n1，投票人数超过2018年州长大选（也是期中选举）投票人数。2018年选举的时候，大概有1,200万加州居民投票。但是昨天的“罢免”选举，根据纽约时报的数据推算，应该有1,300万加州居民投票（目前公布了67%的选票结果，对应900万选票），这和加州提供越来越宽松的投票环境有着直接关系。这次“罢免”选举，加州将2,000多万选票，直接邮寄给选民，还附上了免邮资的返回信封。\n可以想象，关于邮寄选票和选票作弊等这一系列讨论，将继续延续到2024年大选。为什么民主党喜欢邮寄选票而共和党坚决反对，我原来做过分析。核心原因就是共和党的选民，无论是经济富裕阶层还是农民阶层，时间都相对富裕，愿意排队几十分钟甚至几个小时投票。而民主党的选民，很多都是小时工，如果要花几小时投票，就减少了相应收入，投票意愿大幅下降。\n不过，因为邮寄选票就攻击选票作弊这个做法，对于共和党是最不划算的生意。有研究显示，正是因为川普在2020年大选之后，无休止的攻击大选作弊，特别是佐治亚州。所以才导致了在佐治亚州的参议员特殊选举中，共和党的选民不投票。\n2，民主党两派（极左派和温和派）都在党内拉帮结伙。Newsom作为加州州长，年纪不大，在民主党是属于可以推向全国舞台的理想人选。这次Newsom遇到了危机，不仅让拜登飞到加州助选，更是召唤了民主党几乎所有大佬们的支持，包括奥巴马，Sanders，Warren等中间派和极左派的支持，这种现象非常少见。\n民主党的一个内部问题，就是年轻的政客们，越来越自由化。从全国范围来看，美国年轻人喜欢Sanders这样的极左派，已经是一个事实，这让拜登和奥巴马这样的中间派非常苦恼。为了顶住极左派对于民主党的快速侵蚀，他们也放下了身段，力捧年轻人。现在的美国副总统Harris，就属于民主党中间派拉拢有自由派苗头的年轻政客的一个例子。拜登对那些初次登台的国会议员的年轻人，更是想尽办法拉拢。\n3，Newsom留任的支持占比，高于2018年选举州长选举，也高于2020年拜登在加州的总统大选。2018年Newsom首次赢下州长支持占比是61.9%，2020年拜登赢下加州支持占比是63.48%，今年“罢免”选举Newsom的支持占比是64.2%。虽然今年的票还有1/3没有统计，但是考虑到没有统计的票多半是邮寄选票，所以Newsom的支持比例会更高。\nNewsom能够轻松赢下这次“罢免”选举，核心原因只有一个，就是选举策略成功——将对手刻画成“川普克隆”。客观来说，加州的疫苗接种率属于全美最高州之一，感染率属于全美最低州之一。但是，长时间的关闭商业确实让加州居民都心生怨念。再加上这两年加州山火不断，Newsom的客观民意下降很快，不然也不会有那么多签名支持“罢免”选举了。\n但是Newsom的选举策略对了，就是把对手刻画成“川普克隆”。拜登到了加州以后，继续延续这个策略（“You either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor or you’ll get Donald Trump,”）。这个选举策略成功的为Newsom扳回了失去的民意。民主选举，“比好”越来越难，“比烂”是常态。\n这个选举结果，长舒一口气的不是Newsom，而是拜登。2024年大选，拜登有机会遇到川普，也有机会遇到川普克隆——佛罗里达州州长DeSantis。无论是谁，拜登要想连任的可能性，不在于自己做得有多好，就是在于唤醒美国人民特别是中间派，对于川普的厌恶。没有一人能像川普一样团结共和党，更没有一人能像川普一样团结民主党。\n如果明天就是2024年总统大选，拜登依然能赢下川普。\n\n公司新闻\n嘉楠科技(CAN)：2季度营收增长507%，盘前涨4%。第2季度营收¥1.675亿，去年同期¥1.781亿；净利润¥2.450亿，去年同期净亏损¥1,680万。\n晶科能源(JKS)：2季度总出货量增长16.4%，盘前涨1%。第2季度营收¥79.3亿，净利润¥2.747亿。\n辉瑞(PFE) & 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