Sharon0508的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Sharon0508

Sharon0508

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IP属地：湖北

15关注

4粉丝

2主题

0勋章

10-04

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$

10-04

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$

03-11

$SG人民币2406(UC2406)$

2023-12-03

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

新五丰(600975)投资价值分析报告：老牌国企顺风而上

2023-08-16

2023-05-25

$欧元2306(EUR2306)$

2022-12-13

$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$

2022-08-28

😀

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-12

$黄铜2209(HG2209)$[愤怒]

2022-08-05

$布油现金2210(BZ2210)$[财迷]

2022-08-02

$布油现金2210(BZ2210)$[财迷]

2022-08-01

$布油现金2210(BZ2210)$[财迷]

2022-07-22

$布油现金2210(BZ2210)$今天会大跌吗？

2022-06-16

$波音(BA)$还会涨吗?

2021-12-30

$百度(BIDU)$能涨回来吗？

2021-12-30

$百度(BIDU)$为啥大涨?

2021-12-09

$新东方(EDU)$波动太大

2020-10-14

$GSX 20201016 15.0 PUT(GSX)$快到期的期权没有卖出会有什么后果?

2020-08-11

财报到底是超出预期还是不及啊？

2020-07-21

$白银主连(SImain)$ 贵金属现在好像就铂金低。铂金值得入手吗？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/UC2406\">$SG人民币2406(UC2406)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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14:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"新五丰(600975)投资价值分析报告：老牌国企 顺风而上","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2388623242","media":"中信证券","summary":"新五丰以供港澳活猪业务起家，2008 年后战略重心转移至内销市场。2022 年公司生猪出栏182.68 万头，同比增长122.3%，产能和存栏规模居湖南省前列。2022 年16 家上市猪企合计出栏占全国出栏总数17.6%，2023-2024 年这一比例有望提升至21.5%/24.7%，行业CR3 及CR5 也有望持续上升。2023 年由于行情低迷，多数上市公司放缓增长，但公司逆势扩张。此外，考虑到2023 年天心种业对赌失败可能的股份注销，我们认为公司估值安全垫进一步凸显，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。","content":"<html><body><article><p>立足于湖南第一养猪龙头目标，公司逐步从公司+农户模式转向租赁自养模式，加大扩张，产能增速稳居行业前列，而通过硬件升级、种猪更换、管理提效等助力其成本稳步下降，国资背景也托底其财务稳健。我们预计2023-2025 公司生猪出栏量300/500/700 万头，结合猪周期判断，我们预计公司2023-2025 年<span>每股收益</span>为-0.77/0.02/1.77 元，采用PE 及PB 相对估值法，2023 年可比公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002714\">牧原股份</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300498\">温氏股份</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000876\">新希望</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002100\">天康生物</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002567\">唐人神</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605296\">神农集团</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603477\">巨星农牧</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002840\">华统股份</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000048\">京基智农</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001201\">东瑞股份</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603363\">傲农生物</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01610\">中粮家佳康</a>等Wind 一致预期估值8.1 倍PE/3 倍PB，我们给予公司2025 年8.1 倍PE/3 倍PB，对应目标价13-14 元。此外，考虑到2023 年天心种业对赌失败可能的股份注销，我们认为公司估值安全垫进一步凸显，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。</p><p>公司概况：湖南生猪养殖国企龙头，全产业链深度布局。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600975\">新五丰</a>以供港澳活猪业务起家，2008 年后战略重心转移至内销市场。公司所在国资平台历经多轮重整，2022 年成功并购天心种业，目前公司已成为湖南省国资委旗下唯一以生猪为核心主业的全产业链上市公司。2022 年公司生猪出栏182.68 万头，同比增长122.3%，产能和存栏规模居湖南省前列。</p><p>行业：猪价底部震荡，反转预期渐明。今年以来，猪价在经历7 月短暂反弹后回落至亏损区间。短期来看，我们认为24H1 生猪供给压力较难缓解，猪价底部震荡。而在猪价持续落空、猪病反复下，行业持续失血，预计产能去化速度将加快，周期拐点渐行渐近。我们预计猪价有望于2024 年下半年逐步回升，全年均价或高于2023 年，我们预计2023 年-2025 年生猪均价15.5/16.5/20 元/公斤。。</p><p>从行业竞争视角来看，当前行业规模化进程加速，未来行业集中度有望进一步提升。2022 年16 家上市猪企合计出栏占全国出栏总数17.6%，2023-2024 年这一比例有望提升至21.5%/24.7%，行业CR3 及CR5 也有望持续上升。每轮周期都伴随着新旧产能的更替，唯有成本控制能力、资金能力强者方能熬过底部，快速成长。</p><p>模式升级，管理优化，成本利润改善可期。公司生猪养殖模式已完成由传统的“公司+农户”模式向租赁猪场为主的自养模式转变，目前租赁猪场产能占比已近90%。公司加大种猪品系向法系转换，在养殖设备、生物安全防控方面也已实现全面升级，管理持续优化提高人效，随着公司持续降本增效以及提升产能利用率，我们预计公司生猪生产成本也从年初19 元/公斤+回落至17 元/公斤，后续成本下降仍可期。</p><p>厚安全边际下产能快速推进，2023-2025 年出栏高增可期。2023 年由于行情低迷，多数上市公司放缓增长，但公司逆势扩张。截至2023H1，公司能繁母猪存栏已达19.8 万头（母猪舍产能25.89 万），公司持续推进母猪、肥猪场交付，预计年底母猪场产能可超30 万头， 稳步支撑2023-2025 年出栏高增。而背靠国资平台，公司拥有较为充足的现金储备以及低成本信用额度，资金安全边际较厚。</p><p>风险因素：畜禽产品价格大幅波动的风险；原材料价格大幅波动的风险；动物疫病的风险；租赁养殖场的风险；食品安全风险；产能建设不及预期的风险；成本控制不及预期的风险；环保政策变化的风险；产业政策风险。</p><p>投资建议：立足于湖南第一养猪龙头目标，公司逐步从公司+农户模式转向租赁自养模式，加大扩张，产能增速稳居行业前列，而通过硬件升级、种猪更换、管理提效等助力其成本稳步下降，国资背景也托底其财务稳健。我们预计2023-2025 公司生猪出栏量300/500/700 万头，结合猪周期判断，我们预计公司2023-2025 年每股收益为-0.77/0.02/1.77 元，采用PE 及PB 相对估值法，2023 年可比公司牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望/天康生物/唐人神/神农集团/巨星农牧/华统股份/京基智农/东瑞股份/傲农生物/中粮家佳康等Wind一致预期估值8.1倍PE/3 倍PB，我们给予公司2025 年8.1 倍PE/3 倍PB，对应目标价13-14元。此外，考虑到2023 年天心种业对赌失败可能的股份注销，我们认为公司估值安全垫进一步凸显，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新五丰(600975)投资价值分析报告：老牌国企 顺风而上</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n新五丰(600975)投资价值分析报告：老牌国企 顺风而上\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-03 14:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023120314541982281232&s=b><strong>中信证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>立足于湖南第一养猪龙头目标，公司逐步从公司+农户模式转向租赁自养模式，加大扩张，产能增速稳居行业前列，而通过硬件升级、种猪更换、管理提效等助力其成本稳步下降，国资背景也托底其财务稳健。我们预计2023-2025 公司生猪出栏量300/500/700 万头，结合猪周期判断，我们预计公司2023-2025 年每股收益为-0.77/0.02/1.77 元，采用PE 及PB 相对估值法，2023 年可比...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023120314541982281232&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600975":"新五丰","BK0240":"畜牧业","BK0195":"猪"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023120314541982281232&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2388623242","content_text":"立足于湖南第一养猪龙头目标，公司逐步从公司+农户模式转向租赁自养模式，加大扩张，产能增速稳居行业前列，而通过硬件升级、种猪更换、管理提效等助力其成本稳步下降，国资背景也托底其财务稳健。我们预计2023-2025 公司生猪出栏量300/500/700 万头，结合猪周期判断，我们预计公司2023-2025 年每股收益为-0.77/0.02/1.77 元，采用PE 及PB 相对估值法，2023 年可比公司牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望/天康生物/唐人神/神农集团/巨星农牧/华统股份/京基智农/东瑞股份/傲农生物/中粮家佳康等Wind 一致预期估值8.1 倍PE/3 倍PB，我们给予公司2025 年8.1 倍PE/3 倍PB，对应目标价13-14 元。此外，考虑到2023 年天心种业对赌失败可能的股份注销，我们认为公司估值安全垫进一步凸显，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。公司概况：湖南生猪养殖国企龙头，全产业链深度布局。新五丰以供港澳活猪业务起家，2008 年后战略重心转移至内销市场。公司所在国资平台历经多轮重整，2022 年成功并购天心种业，目前公司已成为湖南省国资委旗下唯一以生猪为核心主业的全产业链上市公司。2022 年公司生猪出栏182.68 万头，同比增长122.3%，产能和存栏规模居湖南省前列。行业：猪价底部震荡，反转预期渐明。今年以来，猪价在经历7 月短暂反弹后回落至亏损区间。短期来看，我们认为24H1 生猪供给压力较难缓解，猪价底部震荡。而在猪价持续落空、猪病反复下，行业持续失血，预计产能去化速度将加快，周期拐点渐行渐近。我们预计猪价有望于2024 年下半年逐步回升，全年均价或高于2023 年，我们预计2023 年-2025 年生猪均价15.5/16.5/20 元/公斤。。从行业竞争视角来看，当前行业规模化进程加速，未来行业集中度有望进一步提升。2022 年16 家上市猪企合计出栏占全国出栏总数17.6%，2023-2024 年这一比例有望提升至21.5%/24.7%，行业CR3 及CR5 也有望持续上升。每轮周期都伴随着新旧产能的更替，唯有成本控制能力、资金能力强者方能熬过底部，快速成长。模式升级，管理优化，成本利润改善可期。公司生猪养殖模式已完成由传统的“公司+农户”模式向租赁猪场为主的自养模式转变，目前租赁猪场产能占比已近90%。公司加大种猪品系向法系转换，在养殖设备、生物安全防控方面也已实现全面升级，管理持续优化提高人效，随着公司持续降本增效以及提升产能利用率，我们预计公司生猪生产成本也从年初19 元/公斤+回落至17 元/公斤，后续成本下降仍可期。厚安全边际下产能快速推进，2023-2025 年出栏高增可期。2023 年由于行情低迷，多数上市公司放缓增长，但公司逆势扩张。截至2023H1，公司能繁母猪存栏已达19.8 万头（母猪舍产能25.89 万），公司持续推进母猪、肥猪场交付，预计年底母猪场产能可超30 万头， 稳步支撑2023-2025 年出栏高增。而背靠国资平台，公司拥有较为充足的现金储备以及低成本信用额度，资金安全边际较厚。风险因素：畜禽产品价格大幅波动的风险；原材料价格大幅波动的风险；动物疫病的风险；租赁养殖场的风险；食品安全风险；产能建设不及预期的风险；成本控制不及预期的风险；环保政策变化的风险；产业政策风险。投资建议：立足于湖南第一养猪龙头目标，公司逐步从公司+农户模式转向租赁自养模式，加大扩张，产能增速稳居行业前列，而通过硬件升级、种猪更换、管理提效等助力其成本稳步下降，国资背景也托底其财务稳健。我们预计2023-2025 公司生猪出栏量300/500/700 万头，结合猪周期判断，我们预计公司2023-2025 年每股收益为-0.77/0.02/1.77 元，采用PE 及PB 相对估值法，2023 年可比公司牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望/天康生物/唐人神/神农集团/巨星农牧/华统股份/京基智农/东瑞股份/傲农生物/中粮家佳康等Wind一致预期估值8.1倍PE/3 倍PB，我们给予公司2025 年8.1 倍PE/3 倍PB，对应目标价13-14元。此外，考虑到2023 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