香菜籽梓的个人主页 - 老虎社区

香菜籽梓

香菜籽梓

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IP属地：北京

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4主题

0勋章

2022-05-24

我去

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-26

$好未来(TAL)$你看，熬过了疫情，我们自己把自己整死了[笑哭]

2020-12-04

要跌了么？

消息称理想汽车增发股份每股定价29美元

2020-09-25

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$这货为啥总去其他国家实验小白鼠🐁[捂脸]

2020-08-16

[强]

@罗叔:开户很早，最近一年才开始交易，2020小白Q2复盘笔记：1. 行业不懂的一般不买。2. 坚决不追高。3. 坚定看好的相对低价买入，拉低成本。$蔚来(NIO)$$Nikola Corporation(NKLA)$4. 期权、做空和毛票只是正股的刺激补充，10%持仓最多（反正期权和毛票没赚钱，$邓伯瑞资源(DNR)$进了粉单，$蔚来(NIO)$的横盘直接损失一万多刀）5. 如果长期看好美国股市，$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$会让你有不错的回报。6. 不参加任何一场多空大对决。$柯达(KODK)$7. 中概股的打新上市争取当天就跑。除非长期看好的可以持有。8. FAAMG，道指大盘股适当持有。这些掌控🇺🇸经济命脉的公司不会那么薄命。$Facebook(FB)$$亚马逊(AMZN)$$苹果(AAPL)$

2020-08-12

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$为啥跌这么狠啊

2020-07-27

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$86

2020-07-17

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$这货是真的猛

2020-07-14

$达美航空(DAL)$啥时候能到26以下啊

2020-07-13

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$终于不亏了[流泪]

2020-07-03

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$啥情况啊

2020-06-25

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$这是疫苗失败了么？

2020-06-23

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$是现在就得卖么？

2020-05-18

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$这是要上天么？疫苗不是还没出来么

2020-04-28

这说的很不负责啊，爱奇艺有很多优质的自制剧，难带自制剧这种就做不下去了？这个世界虽然短视频横行，但依然长视频优质资源也非常有需求的

未来是B站和西瓜的，优爱腾能活着就是胜利

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>消息称理想汽车增发股份每股定价29美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-04 10:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月4日讯，据媒体报道，知情人士称<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>把增发4,700万股美国存托股份(ADS)的价格定在每股29美元，募集13.6亿美元，增发价格较周四收盘价32.31美元折让10.2％。高盛、瑞银和中金公司为账簿管理人。</p><p>计划用途包括：约30%用于新一代电动汽车技术的研发，包括高压平台、高C电池和超快充电；约20%用于下一个BEV（Battery Electric Vehicle）平台和未来车型的研发；大约20%用于自动驾驶技术和解决方案的研发；余额用于公司一般用途。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7387642c299e5e4f6e6a640863075d7\" tg-width=\"840\" 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10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"未来是B站和西瓜的，优爱腾能活着就是胜利","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112849748","media":"字母榜","summary":"残忍四月背后，其实是长视频这门生意普遍面临的困境。","content":"<p>“只要能活着就不错了。”</p>\n<p>一两年前，两家长视频网站公关先后向字母榜记者提出这个问题：长视频的未来会怎样？开头那句话，就是字母榜的回答。</p>\n<p>之后长视频网站的走势，不断在给这句话做注脚。四月以来，长视频公司脚下的路越发泥泞。</p>\n<p>4月初，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>被Wolfpack做空，做空报告指出爱奇艺2019年通过将其用户人数夸大了大约42%到60%，从而夸大了营收。</p>\n<p>几乎是同一时间，爱奇艺、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>视频、优酷、芒果TV等视频网站因为自动续费扣款未提醒等原因被浙江省消费者权益保护委员会约谈。</p>\n<p>月中，职场社交平台脉脉有认证为爱奇艺员工的网友匿名表示，爱奇艺正在裁员，非主航道部门，包括泡泡、VR奇遇、电视果等，裁员比例高达30%-50%。</p>\n<p>对此，字母榜向爱奇艺方面求证，截至发稿前未得到回应。</p>\n<p>残忍四月背后，其实是长视频这门生意普遍面临的困境：内容采买费用高，广告收入受新兴视频平台冲击，用户缺乏长期付费习惯，以及严厉的监管。</p>\n<p>中关村互动营销实验室联合普华永道推出的《2019年中国互联网广告发展报告》显示，视频类平台收入同比增长43%，市场占比达到12.5%，成为新闻资讯类平台成为第三大主流媒体平台。</p>\n<p>视频类平台的广告增长主要来自抖音等短视频平台的信息流广告。爱奇艺曾在2019年财报中表示，广告收入同比下降的原因是来自信息流广告的冲击。</p>\n<p>信息流广告的受益者，正是抖音、快手和B站、西瓜视频等以短视频起家的视频平台新势力。他们在商业上闪转腾挪的余地，远比优爱腾们大得多。后者在如今能够活着就已经是胜利了，实在承载不起巨头和投资者们的回报期望。</p>\n<p>随着抖音快手DAU之和向10亿挺进，短视频的发展空间已经趋于饱和，10分钟以内的“长视频”，由于信息量更丰富、信息密度更高，成为新晋视频平台瞄准的新金矿。</p>\n<p>然而，这一轮机会的主角注定不再是优爱腾了。他们衰老得太明显了。“长视频”复兴的重任，落在了B站和抖音的同胞兄弟西瓜视频肩上。</p>\n<p>1</p>\n<p>2020年春节档，因为新冠肺炎疫情的突然爆发，春节档电影纷纷宣布撤档。几天后，字节跳动斥资6.3亿买下春节档电影《囧妈》的版权，在抖音、西瓜视频、今日头条、抖音火山版以及西瓜视频官方TV版免费播出。《囧妈》上线3天，总播放量超6亿次，总观看人次1.8亿。</p>\n<p>一位综艺制片人表示，2019年就开始跟西瓜视频接触，寻找合作机会。“西瓜政策比较灵活，而且有头条系的资源支持，项目的分配比例好，启动速度也快”，这位制片人表示。</p>\n<p>一位专注于互联网技术人才的猎头则表示，西瓜视频从成立之初就开始从各类长短视频平台挖人，其中，从爱奇艺挖人相对比较多，原因是“好挖”。</p>\n<p>“单看技术团队，优爱腾三家的人水平差不多。但爱奇艺类阿里P7级别的人拿的股票很少，优酷和腾讯视频高级别的人都会受制于股权激活政策，跳槽要考虑时间节点”，上述猎头如是表示。</p>\n<p>事实上，西瓜视频对长内容的布局，早在2018年就开始了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84180d12b97b663528f326a3a64d137d\"></p>\n<p>西瓜视频2016年5月上线，前身是头条视频，一度被视作视频版的今日头条，主要依靠PGC模式生产内容。</p>\n<p>西瓜视频早期以几分钟的短视频为主，上线一年DAU就突破1000万，到2017年10月累计用户量达2亿。但随着以抖音为代表的15s小视频的兴起，西瓜视频的增速明显放缓，17年下半年，日活数据就逐渐被火山小视频<span>（后改名抖音火山版）</span>赶超。</p>\n<p>在字节跳动的视频平台矩阵中，西瓜视频也一度有边缘化的趋势。西瓜视频选择的破局方法正是进军传统的长视频市场。</p>\n<p>自制综艺是第一个切入点，2018年初，西瓜视频和头条新闻一同推出直播答题互动游戏《百万英雄》，几乎是同一时间，西瓜视频还和郭德纲合作推出5分钟时长的脱口秀节目《一郭汇》。2020年春节档，西瓜买下《囧妈》，“图穷匕见”。</p>\n<p>西瓜视频向长视频进军的动作，早就引起了三大长视频网站的警惕。</p>\n<p>2019年，爱奇艺曾经起诉了字节跳动，原因是前者的独家版权剧《延禧攻略》在APP“今日头条”上被分段发布、推荐给用户。未经合法授权的相关短视频片段超过1300条，单条播放量最高达到110万次。</p>\n<p>从营销角度来看，剧集片段的传播，其实有助于扩大一部剧的知名度，优爱腾也经常在其他视频平台投放短视频素材进行营销。如果是一部剧的目标受众，看完短视频之后，大概率也会去播放平台看完整版。尤其是《延禧攻略》这种国民级爆款，短视频的传播并不会影响爱奇艺的流量。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d42974c359f8655488f5d46d2395b5\"></p>\n<p>爱奇艺对西瓜视频如此大动干戈，优爱腾们可能早就把西瓜视频列为竞争对手。</p>\n<p>优爱腾之所以能杀出重围，三分长视频天下，“资本”是很重要的因素，毕竟头部内容价格不菲。放眼国内的视频平台，拥有能匹敌阿里腾讯财力的互联网公司，唯字节跳动尔。</p>\n<p>2019年，中国互联网广告市场规模4367亿元，行业集中度继续提升。其中，阿里的广告收入超过1000亿元，字节跳动、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、腾讯紧随其后，处于500元-1000亿元的梯队。</p>\n<p>2020年4月下旬，字节跳动成立了一个以演出经纪为主营业务的新公司。1个月前，字节跳动还斥资1.8亿元人民币，独家战略投资了影视公司泰洋川禾。后者签约了Angelababy、周冬雨等多位艺人，还参投《流浪地球》等影视作品。</p>\n<p>为了增加会员收入，长视频平台还会和其他企业推出捆绑会员，比如爱奇艺就曾联合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、知乎推出149元/年的联合会员。但字节跳动这几年各种扩张树敌无数，愿意跟他合作的公司怕是不多。</p>\n<p>2</p>\n<p>西瓜视频并不是唯一一个尝试进入长视频领域的平台，还有一个平台，正在尝试杀回长视频领域。</p>\n<p>正是B站。</p>\n<p>当B站的定位还是二次元小众社区时，很多用户会在B站看剧，从国产剧到日剧、韩剧等海外剧集。B站受用户欢迎的原因除了拥有大量小众剧集，弹幕文化也是一个重要原因。彼时B站的弹幕内容质量非常高，包含大量的UGC再创作。</p>\n<p>但是当初B站上架的许多长视频内容并没有版权，一开始国内影视版权市场没有起步，所有平台都在侵权。但随着优爱腾等财力雄厚的长视频纷纷斥资购买版权，B站从2014年就开始频繁陷入版权纠纷，虽然B站也在不断购买版权内容，但以其财力，在版权市场的优势并不大。</p>\n<p>2016年，B站被爱奇艺、乐视、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">迅雷</a>和PPTV等公司提起了50起诉讼。与之伴随的，是大量长视频内容的下架。2017年夏天，B站还曾大规模下架一批电视剧。</p>\n<p>没有版权，让B站在上一轮竞争中失去了和优爱腾竞争的砝码。但随着“长视频”的复活，B站也有了重回牌桌的机会。</p>\n<p>虽然失去了版权，B站一直没有失去用户。那些年，侵犯版权的平台往往会遭到舆论的严厉谴责。其中，B站是被诟病最少的，相反，很多用户甚至会反过来心疼B站太穷，“小破站”的称呼也因此得名。</p>\n<p>就在优爱腾靠买版权搞自制走天下时，B站完成了从二次元亚文化社区到青年文化社区的破圈。新的定位给B站带来广告和用户时间。喜欢B站调性的用户会花越来越多的时间在这里，占据了更多用户时间，就为包括广告、会员等后续变现创造机会。</p>\n<p>易观高级分析师马世聪向字母榜表示，西瓜视频、B站这类平台已经聚集了一批忠诚的用户，也形成了一定的平台调性，长期积累的用户行为数据能帮助他们更好地布局长内容。</p>\n<p>一位B站的员工表示，视频平台要做大做强肯定会补充长尾内容，但B站和爱奇艺、腾讯一定会做差异化的内容。</p>\n<p>优爱腾已经明显将西瓜视频视作竞争对手，但B站对他们来说，仍然是一个可以合作的对象，据了解，优爱腾的头部影视内容，都会在B站进行娱乐营销。</p>\n<p>但B站不会满足于仅仅作为宣发渠道。4月底，B站宣布自制的首档SS级说唱音乐节目《说唱新世代》正式开启报名，B站“说唱区”也将同步上线。</p>\n<p>马世聪指出，中短视频平台如果想培养用户在自家平台观看长内容的习惯，一定要保证长期、持续、丰富的长内容供给。</p>\n<p>内容自制能力的培养远非朝夕之功，优爱腾也是走了很多弯路才有今天的成果。</p>\n<p>马世聪认为，长视频平台在内容上游的渗透度非常高，已经和长内容制作方建立了良好的生态联盟。另外，他们还在一定程度上控制了网文、漫画这些源头型版权内容，这反过来会提升他们在制作链条中的话语权。</p>\n<p>《乐队的夏天》制作方米未传媒，此前就和爱奇艺合作过另一档爆款综艺《奇葩说》。优酷则和灿星有长期合作，《这！就是街舞》系列的总导演陆伟正是灿星副总裁。另外，三大网站早已从电视台挖了一批精兵猛将。</p>\n<p>一位网剧制片人向字母榜记者表示，行业虽然一直在关注西瓜视频和B站，但也并不敢贸然把剧给这两家平台，“除非有了标杆案例”，他说。</p>\n<p>在优爱腾对长内容生产链条全覆盖的情况下，完成从0到1的突破，对西瓜视频和B站来说，仍然是个难题。</p>\n<p>面临短视频平台迅速兴起带来的冲击，优爱腾们也在积极应对。</p>\n<p>2020年4月，爱奇艺推出YouTube模式的短视频App“随刻”，这并不是爱奇艺第一次推出短视频，此前爱奇艺就曾推出短视频APP姜饼。</p>\n<p>腾讯视频的母公司腾讯，更是曾经一度推出14款不同的短视频APP，尝试围堵字节跳动。</p>\n<p>但长视频平台对短内容的尝试，都难言成功。B站西瓜们难以短期攻克长内容的护城河，长视频平台也同样无法轻易打败对方。</p>\n<p>3</p>\n<p>长视频真的会死路一条吗？</p>\n<p>就在爱奇艺遭遇残忍四月时，大洋彼岸的奈飞<span>（Netfilx）</span>，市值再创新高，达到1927亿美元，比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>还高了近百亿。2019财年，奈飞营业收入201.56亿美元，全年归属于普通股东净利润为18.67亿美元，同比增长54.13%。</p>\n<p>“成为奈飞”对长视频网站来说，是自主实现盈利最明确的道路。但即便是被认为最像奈飞的爱奇艺，也没能完全复制奈飞模式的精髓。</p>\n<p>奈飞的营收主要靠会员订阅收入，中国的长视频平台们虽然会员收入增长迅速，但广告收入仍然是总营收的重要支柱，2019年，广告收入占到爱奇艺总收入的28.6%，会员收入的占比是49.67%。</p>\n<p>营收模式差异的背后，是会员付费能力的不同。2019财年，爱奇艺的会员年ARPPU是19.37美元<span>（折人民币约136元）</span>，奈飞是118.9美元<span>（折人民币约832元）</span>。</p>\n<p>但付费会员年ARPPU低的问题，还真不能完全怪这几家长视频网站。</p>\n<p>奈飞教育的是一个消费内容的方式发生变化的市场，从实体DVD转为流媒体，消费者的付费心智始终存在，只是渠道变了。而中国的长视频网站需要教育的一个付费心智原本就缺位的市场。</p>\n<p>付费心智虽然不强，但中国用户的鉴赏水准并不差。通过各类盗版途径，中国用户很早就接触到了世界各国的优秀长视频作品。</p>\n<p>坊间一直流传一个梗，长视频网站们最不喜欢的一类用户就是中年中产男性，内容鉴赏水平高，动不动就吐槽，还不爱买会员。</p>\n<p>但这些还不足以影响长视频生意的大盘，毕竟中国有巨大的人口红利和下沉市场，对娱乐内容的需求一定是多元的，优爱腾三家平台几年前的快速发展也证明了这点。</p>\n<p>况且，在资本的支持下，完全可以通过版权采购的方式引入国外优秀内容，2014年，韩剧《皮诺曹》播出时，土豆网就已经做到和韩国同步播出。2016年，爱奇艺更是通过独家定制的方式推出韩剧《太阳的后裔》。</p>\n<p>但有一个风险是长视频平台们既躲不掉，也没有百分百有效方式应对的，那就是监管。</p>\n<p>中国的影视内容都是要先审后播的，审查环节存在诸多不确定性，这一点对剧集的影响更大，一部剧如果在审查阶段耽搁过久，不仅可能拖垮制作方，也可能导致内容失去最佳的播出时间。</p>\n<p>与此同时，在中国制作出品长内容，在内容层面也有诸多具体限制，而这些规定，在具体操作过程中，又存在一定的自由裁量空间。</p>\n<p>这会直接导致内容出品方进行严格的自我审查，字母榜记者曾经采访的剧集制片人就曾表示，如果剧中涉及未成年人的情感，要非常谨慎地处理。</p>\n<p>影响甚至已经波及到看起来在内容上最安全的音乐综艺。陈粒的《易燃易爆炸》在两个综艺里出现时，歌词都被更改了多处，比如把“想我冷艳，还想我轻佻又下贱”分别改为“想我冷艳，还想我轻描又淡写”和“想我冷艳，还想我轻狂又随便”，而“爱我纯粹还爱我赤裸不靡颓”中的“赤裸”，在一档综艺中被改掉，另一档却得到保留。</p>\n<p>从这个案例来看，内容制作方自己也不知道明确的界线在哪里，这些限制都可能对内容的活力产生一些影响。</p>\n<p>尽管如此，长视频必须坚持。优爱腾三家不仅仅是长视频平台，更承载着背后互联网巨头争夺用户时间的整体布局。即便长视频生意本身不赚钱，只要能够留住用户，巨头们有机会在别的地方把钱赚回来。然而，如果亏损一直持续下去，随着疫情这样黑天鹅事件的增多，地主家余粮再多，也得量入为出。</p>\n<p>一旦失去巨头支持，长视频网站就连“活着”亦是奢望了。</p>","source":"ZMB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>未来是B站和西瓜的，优爱腾能活着就是胜利</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n未来是B站和西瓜的，优爱腾能活着就是胜利\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-28 10:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/353230.html><strong>字母榜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“只要能活着就不错了。”\n一两年前，两家长视频网站公关先后向字母榜记者提出这个问题：长视频的未来会怎样？开头那句话，就是字母榜的回答。\n之后长视频网站的走势，不断在给这句话做注脚。四月以来，长视频公司脚下的路越发泥泞。\n4月初，爱奇艺被Wolfpack做空，做空报告指出爱奇艺2019年通过将其用户人数夸大了大约42%到60%，从而夸大了营收。\n几乎是同一时间，爱奇艺、腾讯视频、优酷、芒果TV等视频...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/353230.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49eb9c01846f223a2405330b3e1a50e8","relate_stocks":{"YOKU":"优酷土豆","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","IQ":"爱奇艺"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/353230.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112849748","content_text":"“只要能活着就不错了。”\n一两年前，两家长视频网站公关先后向字母榜记者提出这个问题：长视频的未来会怎样？开头那句话，就是字母榜的回答。\n之后长视频网站的走势，不断在给这句话做注脚。四月以来，长视频公司脚下的路越发泥泞。\n4月初，爱奇艺被Wolfpack做空，做空报告指出爱奇艺2019年通过将其用户人数夸大了大约42%到60%，从而夸大了营收。\n几乎是同一时间，爱奇艺、腾讯视频、优酷、芒果TV等视频网站因为自动续费扣款未提醒等原因被浙江省消费者权益保护委员会约谈。\n月中，职场社交平台脉脉有认证为爱奇艺员工的网友匿名表示，爱奇艺正在裁员，非主航道部门，包括泡泡、VR奇遇、电视果等，裁员比例高达30%-50%。\n对此，字母榜向爱奇艺方面求证，截至发稿前未得到回应。\n残忍四月背后，其实是长视频这门生意普遍面临的困境：内容采买费用高，广告收入受新兴视频平台冲击，用户缺乏长期付费习惯，以及严厉的监管。\n中关村互动营销实验室联合普华永道推出的《2019年中国互联网广告发展报告》显示，视频类平台收入同比增长43%，市场占比达到12.5%，成为新闻资讯类平台成为第三大主流媒体平台。\n视频类平台的广告增长主要来自抖音等短视频平台的信息流广告。爱奇艺曾在2019年财报中表示，广告收入同比下降的原因是来自信息流广告的冲击。\n信息流广告的受益者，正是抖音、快手和B站、西瓜视频等以短视频起家的视频平台新势力。他们在商业上闪转腾挪的余地，远比优爱腾们大得多。后者在如今能够活着就已经是胜利了，实在承载不起巨头和投资者们的回报期望。\n随着抖音快手DAU之和向10亿挺进，短视频的发展空间已经趋于饱和，10分钟以内的“长视频”，由于信息量更丰富、信息密度更高，成为新晋视频平台瞄准的新金矿。\n然而，这一轮机会的主角注定不再是优爱腾了。他们衰老得太明显了。“长视频”复兴的重任，落在了B站和抖音的同胞兄弟西瓜视频肩上。\n1\n2020年春节档，因为新冠肺炎疫情的突然爆发，春节档电影纷纷宣布撤档。几天后，字节跳动斥资6.3亿买下春节档电影《囧妈》的版权，在抖音、西瓜视频、今日头条、抖音火山版以及西瓜视频官方TV版免费播出。《囧妈》上线3天，总播放量超6亿次，总观看人次1.8亿。\n一位综艺制片人表示，2019年就开始跟西瓜视频接触，寻找合作机会。“西瓜政策比较灵活，而且有头条系的资源支持，项目的分配比例好，启动速度也快”，这位制片人表示。\n一位专注于互联网技术人才的猎头则表示，西瓜视频从成立之初就开始从各类长短视频平台挖人，其中，从爱奇艺挖人相对比较多，原因是“好挖”。\n“单看技术团队，优爱腾三家的人水平差不多。但爱奇艺类阿里P7级别的人拿的股票很少，优酷和腾讯视频高级别的人都会受制于股权激活政策，跳槽要考虑时间节点”，上述猎头如是表示。\n事实上，西瓜视频对长内容的布局，早在2018年就开始了。\n\n西瓜视频2016年5月上线，前身是头条视频，一度被视作视频版的今日头条，主要依靠PGC模式生产内容。\n西瓜视频早期以几分钟的短视频为主，上线一年DAU就突破1000万，到2017年10月累计用户量达2亿。但随着以抖音为代表的15s小视频的兴起，西瓜视频的增速明显放缓，17年下半年，日活数据就逐渐被火山小视频（后改名抖音火山版）赶超。\n在字节跳动的视频平台矩阵中，西瓜视频也一度有边缘化的趋势。西瓜视频选择的破局方法正是进军传统的长视频市场。\n自制综艺是第一个切入点，2018年初，西瓜视频和头条新闻一同推出直播答题互动游戏《百万英雄》，几乎是同一时间，西瓜视频还和郭德纲合作推出5分钟时长的脱口秀节目《一郭汇》。2020年春节档，西瓜买下《囧妈》，“图穷匕见”。\n西瓜视频向长视频进军的动作，早就引起了三大长视频网站的警惕。\n2019年，爱奇艺曾经起诉了字节跳动，原因是前者的独家版权剧《延禧攻略》在APP“今日头条”上被分段发布、推荐给用户。未经合法授权的相关短视频片段超过1300条，单条播放量最高达到110万次。\n从营销角度来看，剧集片段的传播，其实有助于扩大一部剧的知名度，优爱腾也经常在其他视频平台投放短视频素材进行营销。如果是一部剧的目标受众，看完短视频之后，大概率也会去播放平台看完整版。尤其是《延禧攻略》这种国民级爆款，短视频的传播并不会影响爱奇艺的流量。\n\n爱奇艺对西瓜视频如此大动干戈，优爱腾们可能早就把西瓜视频列为竞争对手。\n优爱腾之所以能杀出重围，三分长视频天下，“资本”是很重要的因素，毕竟头部内容价格不菲。放眼国内的视频平台，拥有能匹敌阿里腾讯财力的互联网公司，唯字节跳动尔。\n2019年，中国互联网广告市场规模4367亿元，行业集中度继续提升。其中，阿里的广告收入超过1000亿元，字节跳动、百度、腾讯紧随其后，处于500元-1000亿元的梯队。\n2020年4月下旬，字节跳动成立了一个以演出经纪为主营业务的新公司。1个月前，字节跳动还斥资1.8亿元人民币，独家战略投资了影视公司泰洋川禾。后者签约了Angelababy、周冬雨等多位艺人，还参投《流浪地球》等影视作品。\n为了增加会员收入，长视频平台还会和其他企业推出捆绑会员，比如爱奇艺就曾联合京东、知乎推出149元/年的联合会员。但字节跳动这几年各种扩张树敌无数，愿意跟他合作的公司怕是不多。\n2\n西瓜视频并不是唯一一个尝试进入长视频领域的平台，还有一个平台，正在尝试杀回长视频领域。\n正是B站。\n当B站的定位还是二次元小众社区时，很多用户会在B站看剧，从国产剧到日剧、韩剧等海外剧集。B站受用户欢迎的原因除了拥有大量小众剧集，弹幕文化也是一个重要原因。彼时B站的弹幕内容质量非常高，包含大量的UGC再创作。\n但是当初B站上架的许多长视频内容并没有版权，一开始国内影视版权市场没有起步，所有平台都在侵权。但随着优爱腾等财力雄厚的长视频纷纷斥资购买版权，B站从2014年就开始频繁陷入版权纠纷，虽然B站也在不断购买版权内容，但以其财力，在版权市场的优势并不大。\n2016年，B站被爱奇艺、乐视、迅雷和PPTV等公司提起了50起诉讼。与之伴随的，是大量长视频内容的下架。2017年夏天，B站还曾大规模下架一批电视剧。\n没有版权，让B站在上一轮竞争中失去了和优爱腾竞争的砝码。但随着“长视频”的复活，B站也有了重回牌桌的机会。\n虽然失去了版权，B站一直没有失去用户。那些年，侵犯版权的平台往往会遭到舆论的严厉谴责。其中，B站是被诟病最少的，相反，很多用户甚至会反过来心疼B站太穷，“小破站”的称呼也因此得名。\n就在优爱腾靠买版权搞自制走天下时，B站完成了从二次元亚文化社区到青年文化社区的破圈。新的定位给B站带来广告和用户时间。喜欢B站调性的用户会花越来越多的时间在这里，占据了更多用户时间，就为包括广告、会员等后续变现创造机会。\n易观高级分析师马世聪向字母榜表示，西瓜视频、B站这类平台已经聚集了一批忠诚的用户，也形成了一定的平台调性，长期积累的用户行为数据能帮助他们更好地布局长内容。\n一位B站的员工表示，视频平台要做大做强肯定会补充长尾内容，但B站和爱奇艺、腾讯一定会做差异化的内容。\n优爱腾已经明显将西瓜视频视作竞争对手，但B站对他们来说，仍然是一个可以合作的对象，据了解，优爱腾的头部影视内容，都会在B站进行娱乐营销。\n但B站不会满足于仅仅作为宣发渠道。4月底，B站宣布自制的首档SS级说唱音乐节目《说唱新世代》正式开启报名，B站“说唱区”也将同步上线。\n马世聪指出，中短视频平台如果想培养用户在自家平台观看长内容的习惯，一定要保证长期、持续、丰富的长内容供给。\n内容自制能力的培养远非朝夕之功，优爱腾也是走了很多弯路才有今天的成果。\n马世聪认为，长视频平台在内容上游的渗透度非常高，已经和长内容制作方建立了良好的生态联盟。另外，他们还在一定程度上控制了网文、漫画这些源头型版权内容，这反过来会提升他们在制作链条中的话语权。\n《乐队的夏天》制作方米未传媒，此前就和爱奇艺合作过另一档爆款综艺《奇葩说》。优酷则和灿星有长期合作，《这！就是街舞》系列的总导演陆伟正是灿星副总裁。另外，三大网站早已从电视台挖了一批精兵猛将。\n一位网剧制片人向字母榜记者表示，行业虽然一直在关注西瓜视频和B站，但也并不敢贸然把剧给这两家平台，“除非有了标杆案例”，他说。\n在优爱腾对长内容生产链条全覆盖的情况下，完成从0到1的突破，对西瓜视频和B站来说，仍然是个难题。\n面临短视频平台迅速兴起带来的冲击，优爱腾们也在积极应对。\n2020年4月，爱奇艺推出YouTube模式的短视频App“随刻”，这并不是爱奇艺第一次推出短视频，此前爱奇艺就曾推出短视频APP姜饼。\n腾讯视频的母公司腾讯，更是曾经一度推出14款不同的短视频APP，尝试围堵字节跳动。\n但长视频平台对短内容的尝试，都难言成功。B站西瓜们难以短期攻克长内容的护城河，长视频平台也同样无法轻易打败对方。\n3\n长视频真的会死路一条吗？\n就在爱奇艺遭遇残忍四月时，大洋彼岸的奈飞（Netfilx），市值再创新高，达到1927亿美元，比迪士尼还高了近百亿。2019财年，奈飞营业收入201.56亿美元，全年归属于普通股东净利润为18.67亿美元，同比增长54.13%。\n“成为奈飞”对长视频网站来说，是自主实现盈利最明确的道路。但即便是被认为最像奈飞的爱奇艺，也没能完全复制奈飞模式的精髓。\n奈飞的营收主要靠会员订阅收入，中国的长视频平台们虽然会员收入增长迅速，但广告收入仍然是总营收的重要支柱，2019年，广告收入占到爱奇艺总收入的28.6%，会员收入的占比是49.67%。\n营收模式差异的背后，是会员付费能力的不同。2019财年，爱奇艺的会员年ARPPU是19.37美元（折人民币约136元），奈飞是118.9美元（折人民币约832元）。\n但付费会员年ARPPU低的问题，还真不能完全怪这几家长视频网站。\n奈飞教育的是一个消费内容的方式发生变化的市场，从实体DVD转为流媒体，消费者的付费心智始终存在，只是渠道变了。而中国的长视频网站需要教育的一个付费心智原本就缺位的市场。\n付费心智虽然不强，但中国用户的鉴赏水准并不差。通过各类盗版途径，中国用户很早就接触到了世界各国的优秀长视频作品。\n坊间一直流传一个梗，长视频网站们最不喜欢的一类用户就是中年中产男性，内容鉴赏水平高，动不动就吐槽，还不爱买会员。\n但这些还不足以影响长视频生意的大盘，毕竟中国有巨大的人口红利和下沉市场，对娱乐内容的需求一定是多元的，优爱腾三家平台几年前的快速发展也证明了这点。\n况且，在资本的支持下，完全可以通过版权采购的方式引入国外优秀内容，2014年，韩剧《皮诺曹》播出时，土豆网就已经做到和韩国同步播出。2016年，爱奇艺更是通过独家定制的方式推出韩剧《太阳的后裔》。\n但有一个风险是长视频平台们既躲不掉，也没有百分百有效方式应对的，那就是监管。\n中国的影视内容都是要先审后播的，审查环节存在诸多不确定性，这一点对剧集的影响更大，一部剧如果在审查阶段耽搁过久，不仅可能拖垮制作方，也可能导致内容失去最佳的播出时间。\n与此同时，在中国制作出品长内容，在内容层面也有诸多具体限制，而这些规定，在具体操作过程中，又存在一定的自由裁量空间。\n这会直接导致内容出品方进行严格的自我审查，字母榜记者曾经采访的剧集制片人就曾表示，如果剧中涉及未成年人的情感，要非常谨慎地处理。\n影响甚至已经波及到看起来在内容上最安全的音乐综艺。陈粒的《易燃易爆炸》在两个综艺里出现时，歌词都被更改了多处，比如把“想我冷艳，还想我轻佻又下贱”分别改为“想我冷艳，还想我轻描又淡写”和“想我冷艳，还想我轻狂又随便”，而“爱我纯粹还爱我赤裸不靡颓”中的“赤裸”，在一档综艺中被改掉，另一档却得到保留。\n从这个案例来看，内容制作方自己也不知道明确的界线在哪里，这些限制都可能对内容的活力产生一些影响。\n尽管如此，长视频必须坚持。优爱腾三家不仅仅是长视频平台，更承载着背后互联网巨头争夺用户时间的整体布局。即便长视频生意本身不赚钱，只要能够留住用户，巨头们有机会在别的地方把钱赚回来。然而，如果亏损一直持续下去，随着疫情这样黑天鹅事件的增多，地主家余粮再多，也得量入为出。\n一旦失去巨头支持，长视频网站就连“活着”亦是奢望了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547157271618186","authorId":"3547157271618186","name":"Eddard 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