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巴韭隆
个人简介:使用两套投资策略,简化版全天候配置和通道突破量化交易。
IP属地:广东
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巴韭隆
14:25
$TCH.HK 20240627 350.00 PUT$
开一仓,月底等接
巴韭隆
09:42
$TCH.HK 20240530 370.00 PUT$
370接了两手
巴韭隆
01:39
$QQQ 20250117 339.78 PUT$
上半年长得也太快了。时间价值所剩无几。
巴韭隆
01:25
$TLT 20240531 89.0 PUT$
吃顿单人小火[捂脸]
巴韭隆
05-29 21:42
好家伙,全品类下跌[喷血] ,持仓没一个涨的。
巴韭隆
05-29 18:58
$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$
价格无法突破92.4,那么短线还是看空。跌多少到哪里不知道。我今年的计划是左侧逢低买入,因此空单不挂。
巴韭隆
05-28
$第一太阳能(FSLR)$
离谱,扫描器扫出来的股,并不知道是什么,看个方面技术指标符合就买了。[捂脸] 拿了一个月碰上个大利好。
巴韭隆
05-27
$腾讯控股(00700)$
这几天会测试360的价格,是四小时的50日均线。如果破了,就等345,这位置我会卖Put接盘,如果跌到325,考虑接波大的。
巴韭隆
05-27
$TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL$
涨多了怕回撤,但是又想价值投资。卖cal[贱笑]
巴韭隆
05-25
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
4张垂直价差+一张put, 这周让我捞了一笔。
巴韭隆
05-23
$TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL$
走到400就要调整下也合理。这周卖call弄几百港币不难受。
巴韭隆
05-23
$TLT 20240524 92.5 CALL$
每周40-80,再小也是肉。坚持搬,加上月底分红,一个月400刀吧。海底捞火锅自由了。
巴韭隆
05-23
$Coinbase Global, Inc. VERTICAL 240524 CALL 210.0/CALL 225.0$
239被压制,这周上去看264、上不去继续争夺240。4小时线支撑在220。 乐观一点可以卖一手220 put。要是跌破,回去坚守200哈哈。周五再看,在开单
巴韭隆
05-21
$TCH.HK 20240530 410.00 CALL$
涨幅这么大,不做一把CC亏了哈哈
巴韭隆
05-21
$Coinbase Global, Inc. VERTICAL 240524 CALL 210.0/CALL 225.0$
已达到最大收益,只剩一点时间价值可以挤一挤。
巴韭隆
05-21
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
放量突破压力线,如果你的Covered Call被击穿,滚仓吧,别下跌挨了打,上涨没吃到肉,再把正股扔了。
巴韭隆
05-18
$Coinbase Global, Inc. VERTICAL 240524 CALL 210.0/CALL 225.0$
赌一个反弹,Covered Ratio Call Spread 垂直+备兑,贪一点。剩下时间祈祷,早上祷十遍,晚上祷十遍,一祷到底。
巴韭隆
05-17
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
快要出方向了,上方220,下方190,没什么震荡的区间了。
巴韭隆
05-16
$腾讯控股(00700)$
滚仓CC,[财迷] ,然后 370埋伏了sp
巴韭隆
05-15
$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$
CC滚起[财迷]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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20250117 339.78 PUT\">$QQQ 20250117 339.78 PUT$</a> 上半年长得也太快了。时间价值所剩无几。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20250117 339.78 PUT\">$QQQ 20250117 339.78 PUT$</a> 上半年长得也太快了。时间价值所剩无几。","text":"$QQQ 20250117 339.78 PUT$ 上半年长得也太快了。时间价值所剩无几。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80348295959883cca3f5b830942268f2","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311557421895944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311553797239048,"gmtCreate":1717089903703,"gmtModify":1717090309204,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240531 89.0 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,持仓没一个涨的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311173843390584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311132589260912,"gmtCreate":1716980337958,"gmtModify":1716980344169,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> 价格无法突破92.4,那么短线还是看空。跌多少到哪里不知道。我今年的计划是左侧逢低买入,因此空单不挂。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> 价格无法突破92.4,那么短线还是看空。跌多少到哪里不知道。我今年的计划是左侧逢低买入,因此空单不挂。","text":"$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$ 价格无法突破92.4,那么短线还是看空。跌多少到哪里不知道。我今年的计划是左侧逢低买入,因此空单不挂。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea08e49aebff73d54e84eb6c44cf721","width":"1290","height":"1242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311132589260912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310682138108040,"gmtCreate":1716877626120,"gmtModify":1716882239836,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLR\">$第一太阳能(FSLR)$</a> 离谱,扫描器扫出来的股,并不知道是什么,看个方面技术指标符合就买了。[捂脸] 拿了一个月碰上个大利好。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLR\">$第一太阳能(FSLR)$</a> 离谱,扫描器扫出来的股,并不知道是什么,看个方面技术指标符合就买了。[捂脸] 拿了一个月碰上个大利好。","text":"$第一太阳能(FSLR)$ 离谱,扫描器扫出来的股,并不知道是什么,看个方面技术指标符合就买了。[捂脸] 拿了一个月碰上个大利好。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bd495de35d3dd2404a8b287bd136e14","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310682138108040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310373086478336,"gmtCreate":1716778769787,"gmtModify":1716778771491,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 这几天会测试360的价格,是四小时的50日均线。如果破了,就等345,这位置我会卖Put接盘,如果跌到325,考虑接波大的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 这几天会测试360的价格,是四小时的50日均线。如果破了,就等345,这位置我会卖Put接盘,如果跌到325,考虑接波大的。","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 这几天会测试360的价格,是四小时的50日均线。如果破了,就等345,这位置我会卖Put接盘,如果跌到325,考虑接波大的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310373086478336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"真行-3%都能拉起来。","text":"真行-3%都能拉起来。","html":"真行-3%都能拉起来。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310363390763064,"gmtCreate":1716776419023,"gmtModify":1716777355148,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL\">$TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL$</a> 涨多了怕回撤,但是又想价值投资。卖cal[贱笑] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL\">$TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL$</a> 涨多了怕回撤,但是又想价值投资。卖cal[贱笑] ","text":"$TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL$ 涨多了怕回撤,但是又想价值投资。卖cal[贱笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd9b0e85ceff39e7c7f1a8a2775919b","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310363390763064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309472644972544,"gmtCreate":1716582442553,"gmtModify":1716587442477,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 4张垂直价差+一张put, 这周让我捞了一笔。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 4张垂直价差+一张put, 这周让我捞了一笔。","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 4张垂直价差+一张put, 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CALL$</a> 走到400就要调整下也合理。这周卖call弄几百港币不难受。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL\">$TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL$</a> 走到400就要调整下也合理。这周卖call弄几百港币不难受。","text":"$TCH.HK 20240627 390.00 CALL$ 走到400就要调整下也合理。这周卖call弄几百港币不难受。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9b51599485d15ee8be57570c4feee1","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308744572133560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308742888276232,"gmtCreate":1716404429425,"gmtModify":1716409358720,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240524 92.5 CALL\">$TLT 20240524 92.5 CALL$</a> 每周40-80,再小也是肉。坚持搬,加上月底分红,一个月400刀吧。海底捞火锅自由了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240524 92.5 CALL\">$TLT 20240524 92.5 CALL$</a> 每周40-80,再小也是肉。坚持搬,加上月底分红,一个月400刀吧。海底捞火锅自由了。","text":"$TLT 20240524 92.5 CALL$ 每周40-80,再小也是肉。坚持搬,加上月底分红,一个月400刀吧。海底捞火锅自由了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed43186b4c18e5f9233ab633de9bfa5c","width":"1092","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308742888276232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"13103784525636","authorId":"13103784525636","name":"苍梧子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"老铁怎么用这个做covered call策略","text":"老铁怎么用这个做covered call策略","html":"老铁怎么用这个做covered call策略"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308741647909128,"gmtCreate":1716404126600,"gmtModify":1716430707302,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240524 210.0 CALL BUY 1 | COIN 20240524 225.0 CALL SELL 1\">$Coinbase Global, Inc. 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VERTICAL 240524 CALL 210.0/CALL 225.0$ 已达到最大收益,只剩一点时间价值可以挤一挤。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e095e093fc59695e2174d2da45403410","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308168032682160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308157068083392,"gmtCreate":1716255596608,"gmtModify":1716255737982,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 放量突破压力线,如果你的Covered Call被击穿,滚仓吧,别下跌挨了打,上涨没吃到肉,再把正股扔了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 放量突破压力线,如果你的Covered Call被击穿,滚仓吧,别下跌挨了打,上涨没吃到肉,再把正股扔了。","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 放量突破压力线,如果你的Covered Call被击穿,滚仓吧,别下跌挨了打,上涨没吃到肉,再把正股扔了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308157068083392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574609203076960","authorId":"3574609203076960","name":"目光之后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516d9fcad49f5c5a9d0f19b33ab3b62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这涨太快了,我还有6月14号到期的coin250的sell call呢。会被击穿么 [笑哭]","text":"这涨太快了,我还有6月14号到期的coin250的sell call呢。会被击穿么 [笑哭]","html":"这涨太快了,我还有6月14号到期的coin250的sell call呢。会被击穿么 [笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306908266741848,"gmtCreate":1715963452429,"gmtModify":1715963629177,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240524 210.0 CALL BUY 1 | COIN 20240524 225.0 CALL SELL 1\">$Coinbase Global, Inc. 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VERTICAL 240524 CALL 210.0/CALL 225.0$ 赌一个反弹,Covered Ratio Call Spread 垂直+备兑,贪一点。剩下时间祈祷,早上祷十遍,晚上祷十遍,一祷到底。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aef4eec19c020bf1408ef2a4b8a0f09","width":"201","height":"146"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306908266741848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574609203076960","authorId":"3574609203076960","name":"目光之后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516d9fcad49f5c5a9d0f19b33ab3b62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"上周大单卖的212.5的call 这周大单卖的222.5的call. coin应该能涨一点吧","text":"上周大单卖的212.5的call 这周大单卖的222.5的call. coin应该能涨一点吧","html":"上周大单卖的212.5的call 这周大单卖的222.5的call. 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快要出方向了,上方220,下方190,没什么震荡的区间了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae136277fae0aa530ee59c4eeeafa6f","width":"1290","height":"757"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306550118027480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306340459565072,"gmtCreate":1715824719844,"gmtModify":1715824980128,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 滚仓CC,[财迷] ,然后 370埋伏了sp","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 滚仓CC,[财迷] ,然后 370埋伏了sp","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 滚仓CC,[财迷] ,然后 370埋伏了sp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306340459565072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306187773722712,"gmtCreate":1715787550813,"gmtModify":1715787858311,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> CC滚起[财迷] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> CC滚起[财迷] ","text":"$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$ CC滚起[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306187773722712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":290679921086512,"gmtCreate":1711992714082,"gmtModify":1712066505741,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 两张covered call 让打掉了 本周希望250以下接回来裸卖两张put","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 两张covered call 让打掉了 本周希望250以下接回来裸卖两张put","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 两张covered call 让打掉了 本周希望250以下接回来裸卖两张put","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a39e1c9d413f96973a86ec228d2b39","width":"1092","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290679921086512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"740450932848","authorId":"740450932848","name":"33_Tiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c2a58a713dadbb19ede7c4c37d61d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"卖多少价格的put","text":"卖多少价格的put","html":"卖多少价格的put"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305338897330368,"gmtCreate":1715580271434,"gmtModify":1715580272713,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 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涨多了怕回撤,但是又想价值投资。卖cal[贱笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd9b0e85ceff39e7c7f1a8a2775919b","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310363390763064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302444223791352,"gmtCreate":1714845007718,"gmtModify":1714875548420,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上周卖了三个Call和两张PUT,做了个宽跨期权组合。赚了1900。不知道这个月是否还会宽幅震荡。","listText":"上周卖了三个Call和两张PUT,做了个宽跨期权组合。赚了1900。不知道这个月是否还会宽幅震荡。","text":"上周卖了三个Call和两张PUT,做了个宽跨期权组合。赚了1900。不知道这个月是否还会宽幅震荡。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06e8821f603b0f07e0d4b7a1ab497a4","width":"1092","height":"1716"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1183bf11d61e2af6dd52c617f818146","width":"1092","height":"1716"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27a4df453060aa533fa61971a859d8","width":"1092","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302444223791352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20722186463466","authorId":"20722186463466","name":"爱发红包的虎妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf27be178fbc21279d1959ce5bec4e7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"老师您好,可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗?微信:itiger2014","text":"老师您好,可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗?微信:itiger2014","html":"老师您好,可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗?微信:itiger2014"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298714990686264,"gmtCreate":1713937175561,"gmtModify":1713937274970,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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真搬砖","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39e08912e22eb6cfb30a0d479316aed6","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294624677261608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574609203076960","authorId":"3574609203076960","name":"目光之后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516d9fcad49f5c5a9d0f19b33ab3b62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"下周coinbase出现大单买入看涨期权,我要全仓了老哥","text":"下周coinbase出现大单买入看涨期权,我要全仓了老哥","html":"下周coinbase出现大单买入看涨期权,我要全仓了老哥"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628295139,"gmtCreate":1673254215121,"gmtModify":1673254216189,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 如果跌破194,4小时级别上看,今年以来的大行情趋势结束。年初1-2月份的大回调也没有跌破趋势线(200均线)如果未来两天跌破后,不能马上拉回来。技术上会很难看。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 如果跌破194,4小时级别上看,今年以来的大行情趋势结束。年初1-2月份的大回调也没有跌破趋势线(200均线)如果未来两天跌破后,不能马上拉回来。技术上会很难看。","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 如果跌破194,4小时级别上看,今年以来的大行情趋势结束。年初1-2月份的大回调也没有跌破趋势线(200均线)如果未来两天跌破后,不能马上拉回来。技术上会很难看。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a515f5200cb1295f6b9e50fd4ecd329","width":"2796","height":"1290"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305774821834952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"守住了,今晚再续2根小阳线吧。","text":"守住了,今晚再续2根小阳线吧。","html":"守住了,今晚再续2根小阳线吧。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308157068083392,"gmtCreate":1716255596608,"gmtModify":1716255737982,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 放量突破压力线,如果你的Covered Call被击穿,滚仓吧,别下跌挨了打,上涨没吃到肉,再把正股扔了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 放量突破压力线,如果你的Covered Call被击穿,滚仓吧,别下跌挨了打,上涨没吃到肉,再把正股扔了。","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 放量突破压力线,如果你的Covered Call被击穿,滚仓吧,别下跌挨了打,上涨没吃到肉,再把正股扔了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308157068083392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574609203076960","authorId":"3574609203076960","name":"目光之后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516d9fcad49f5c5a9d0f19b33ab3b62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这涨太快了,我还有6月14号到期的coin250的sell call呢。会被击穿么 [笑哭]","text":"这涨太快了,我还有6月14号到期的coin250的sell call呢。会被击穿么 [笑哭]","html":"这涨太快了,我还有6月14号到期的coin250的sell call呢。会被击穿么 [笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":262382635254096,"gmtCreate":1705089705643,"gmtModify":1705089708581,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL$</a> 跟单Sell Call 10张","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL$</a> 跟单Sell Call 10张","text":"$COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL$ 跟单Sell Call 10张","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d9bc3f46119c83a3c61a761985c8f6","width":"1125","height":"2266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/262382635254096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"232529750880900","authorId":"232529750880900","name":"21克拉粉钻","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb8fbbaee3546b4c601204e83215502","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"但短期估计弱势调整一段时间后再向上","text":"但短期估计弱势调整一段时间后再向上","html":"但短期估计弱势调整一段时间后再向上"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621240931,"gmtCreate":1672333037923,"gmtModify":1672333039544,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>撤了,把赚钱机会留给韩国散户","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>撤了,把赚钱机会留给韩国散户","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 撤了,把赚钱机会留给韩国散户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38551e1f623f454259887bd83533dda1","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621240931","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683007205,"gmtCreate":1655875850908,"gmtModify":1704863449192,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">$新东方在线(01797)$</a>美股开盘,再开空单","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">$新东方在线(01797)$</a>美股开盘,再开空单","text":"$新东方在线(01797)$美股开盘,再开空单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683007205","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566900685391720","authorId":"3566900685391720","name":"非洲韭菜盒子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"美股没这个","text":"美股没这个","html":"美股没这个"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261017500930176,"gmtCreate":1704735028316,"gmtModify":1704744109574,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL$</a> 舒服了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL$</a> 舒服了","text":"$COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL$ 舒服了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1399dadc96e2e6f0748981a333d9e7","width":"1092","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261017500930176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662507580,"gmtCreate":1666620256840,"gmtModify":1666620257878,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>好家伙,可算等着了,空单拿了快仨月了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>好家伙,可算等着了,空单拿了快仨月了","text":"$新东方(EDU)$好家伙,可算等着了,空单拿了快仨月了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662507580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666965113,"gmtCreate":1665378910832,"gmtModify":1665378912493,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"让你们不懂,up主用心良苦,用文章举例说明美股对A股影响越来越弱,所以A股不行主要是A股自己不行,很美国没啥关系。将来美股反弹,也和大A不挨着。我们走的独立行情。","listText":"让你们不懂,up主用心良苦,用文章举例说明美股对A股影响越来越弱,所以A股不行主要是A股自己不行,很美国没啥关系。将来美股反弹,也和大A不挨着。我们走的独立行情。","text":"让你们不懂,up主用心良苦,用文章举例说明美股对A股影响越来越弱,所以A股不行主要是A股自己不行,很美国没啥关系。将来美股反弹,也和大A不挨着。我们走的独立行情。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666965113","repostId":"1137925561","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137925561","pubTimestamp":1665369382,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137925561?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-10 10:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美股虽弱,但难阻A股反转","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137925561","media":"格隆汇","summary":"展望4季度,拐点临近,当下市场已进入较好布局期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者:樊继拓 等</p><p><b>相比1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高,认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市,但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。目前A股的经济、投资者仓位、估值、汇率环境非常类似2019年8月初的低点,后续可能会再次出现V型反转,建议投资者积极做多。配置上我们认为,市场的风格正在往价值转变,这一转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率演变为年度的风格转变。</b></p><p><b>(1)国内风险可控,投资者担心美股的风险。</b>相比较1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高。国内的经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。美国经济所面临的利率大幅上行、通胀波动大、经济衰退等风险,很多都是十年甚至几十年一遇的,这已经成为影响A股反转的最后障碍。从美股的调整幅度来看,2010到2021年,除了疫情期间,其他历次经济小级别衰退(可以理解为软着陆),美股调整幅度均不超过20%。而年初以来,标普500最大回撤幅度高达25%,基本上已经意味着资本市场认为,美国经济很难软着陆。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e8553e0c68b5dcdfeeb34a8a7c82fe\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在的关键是,对A股的影响会有多大?2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市。2000-2002年,标普500最大跌幅-49%,上证综指最大跌幅-41%;2007-2008年,标普500最大跌幅-57%,上证综指最大跌幅-72%,这次甚至A股的跌幅更大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee501ed7b9b59111257b74af011c9dd1\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2)但这一次中美股市所处的估值位置完全不同,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。</b>之所以2000-2002、2007-2008年,A股比美股调整更剧烈,背后很重要的原因是2000年底和2007年底,A股本身处在估值泡沫化的顶点,但这一次A股股市是处在历史很低的位置。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c243c96cd4d66eecf3d90e806ce0c19\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>更低的估值意味着,虽然美股调整对A股的负面影响还在,但已经非常小了。从2009-2021年美国历次小级别熊市对A股影响幅度,已经能看到类似的结论了。2011、2015、2018和2020年,美国经历过4次小级别熊市,前两次恰好是A股估值处在高位,后两次A股估值处在低位,后两次对A股的影响非常小。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea755fed81faf5026bb18a9563d2981a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3)美国经济会影响出口,但这是滞后指标。</b>从基本面的角度,投资者担心如果海外衰退,可能会导致出口下滑,从而压制国内的经济。我们认为,这一影响肯定是存在的。但由于2000年以来,中国经济的历次周期都是早于欧美的,所以出口大多是经济的滞后指标。经济下滑的时候,出口滞后下滑,经济企稳的时候,出口滞后企稳。股市的企稳主要取决于国内经济的韧性,随着稳增长的推进,房地产政策正在不断宽松,信贷社融的改善虽然有所反复,但大方向上,依然是在改善的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2a3e90e802fc588da40abd8d6472d6a\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f4fdc811b0f338929362726c2b5829a\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(4)策略观点:可能会再次V型反转。</b>7月以后,经济预期再次回落,导致上证50等指数最先开始走弱,8月下旬开始,由于疫情、美股调整、风格转变等影响,指数再次走弱。我们认为指数层面的调整已经接近尾声,但风格转变可能才刚刚开始。10月开始,在稳增长等因素的驱动下,指数有可能止跌再次V型反转。整体上来看,2022年7月-2023年中,指数将会是宽幅震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8113bfff648a82888401a8a93e6240\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb729e7b7ecfe937485a1ff55097d2d\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>行业配置建议:全面增配价值股。</b>8月开始,我们不断提示“提前开始风格转换”,部分投资者认为长期产业逻辑、当期景气度比估值更重要,犹豫不决的投资者依然很多。需要警惕的是,即使是2016年白酒牛市和2019年半导体牛市,在风格转变初期的时候,风格变化也是领先业绩的。当下的风格转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率发展为年度风格变化。<b>(1)成长股的季度性反弹已经结束,建议配置上转向价值股。</b>由于市场年度的风格是拉锯期,所以价值成长会伴随指数的涨跌出现快速的变化,4-8月成长的反弹类似2015年Q4和2019年Q1,季度涨幅过后可能会休整一个季度。如果明年初经济改善或成长业绩出现不好的变化,则时间可能更久。三季报期间可能会有成长股小的喘息窗口,时间和级别会比4-8月小很多。<b>(2)可以在半年内超配金融地产。</b>银行地产的超额收益大多出现在经济下降后期到经济回升早期,在经济确定改善之前,反而更容易产生超额收益。非银估值位置更好,但近期正面催化剂较少,启动时间可能比银行地产略晚,但依然建议超配。<b>(3)消费的逻辑演绎还不充分。</b>疫情后投资者开始逐渐预期经济恢复,这一恢复的过程虽然受到房地产销售的波折,但大方向上还能持续。建议优先关注疫后产能格局优化的酒店、航空,后续等待稳增长效果,逐渐增配和经济相关度高的家电等。<b>(4)周期股长期逻辑完美,短期正在承受美国经济可能会衰退的影响。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00271d7cc42cca1b7993dd3b602f975c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股虽弱,但难阻A股反转</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股虽弱,但难阻A股反转\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 10:36 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:樊继拓 等相比1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高,认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市,但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年,美股风险可能只是个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1137925561","content_text":"作者:樊继拓 等相比1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高,认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市,但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。目前A股的经济、投资者仓位、估值、汇率环境非常类似2019年8月初的低点,后续可能会再次出现V型反转,建议投资者积极做多。配置上我们认为,市场的风格正在往价值转变,这一转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率演变为年度的风格转变。(1)国内风险可控,投资者担心美股的风险。相比较1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高。国内的经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。美国经济所面临的利率大幅上行、通胀波动大、经济衰退等风险,很多都是十年甚至几十年一遇的,这已经成为影响A股反转的最后障碍。从美股的调整幅度来看,2010到2021年,除了疫情期间,其他历次经济小级别衰退(可以理解为软着陆),美股调整幅度均不超过20%。而年初以来,标普500最大回撤幅度高达25%,基本上已经意味着资本市场认为,美国经济很难软着陆。现在的关键是,对A股的影响会有多大?2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市。2000-2002年,标普500最大跌幅-49%,上证综指最大跌幅-41%;2007-2008年,标普500最大跌幅-57%,上证综指最大跌幅-72%,这次甚至A股的跌幅更大。(2)但这一次中美股市所处的估值位置完全不同,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。之所以2000-2002、2007-2008年,A股比美股调整更剧烈,背后很重要的原因是2000年底和2007年底,A股本身处在估值泡沫化的顶点,但这一次A股股市是处在历史很低的位置。更低的估值意味着,虽然美股调整对A股的负面影响还在,但已经非常小了。从2009-2021年美国历次小级别熊市对A股影响幅度,已经能看到类似的结论了。2011、2015、2018和2020年,美国经历过4次小级别熊市,前两次恰好是A股估值处在高位,后两次A股估值处在低位,后两次对A股的影响非常小。(3)美国经济会影响出口,但这是滞后指标。从基本面的角度,投资者担心如果海外衰退,可能会导致出口下滑,从而压制国内的经济。我们认为,这一影响肯定是存在的。但由于2000年以来,中国经济的历次周期都是早于欧美的,所以出口大多是经济的滞后指标。经济下滑的时候,出口滞后下滑,经济企稳的时候,出口滞后企稳。股市的企稳主要取决于国内经济的韧性,随着稳增长的推进,房地产政策正在不断宽松,信贷社融的改善虽然有所反复,但大方向上,依然是在改善的。(4)策略观点:可能会再次V型反转。7月以后,经济预期再次回落,导致上证50等指数最先开始走弱,8月下旬开始,由于疫情、美股调整、风格转变等影响,指数再次走弱。我们认为指数层面的调整已经接近尾声,但风格转变可能才刚刚开始。10月开始,在稳增长等因素的驱动下,指数有可能止跌再次V型反转。整体上来看,2022年7月-2023年中,指数将会是宽幅震荡。行业配置建议:全面增配价值股。8月开始,我们不断提示“提前开始风格转换”,部分投资者认为长期产业逻辑、当期景气度比估值更重要,犹豫不决的投资者依然很多。需要警惕的是,即使是2016年白酒牛市和2019年半导体牛市,在风格转变初期的时候,风格变化也是领先业绩的。当下的风格转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率发展为年度风格变化。(1)成长股的季度性反弹已经结束,建议配置上转向价值股。由于市场年度的风格是拉锯期,所以价值成长会伴随指数的涨跌出现快速的变化,4-8月成长的反弹类似2015年Q4和2019年Q1,季度涨幅过后可能会休整一个季度。如果明年初经济改善或成长业绩出现不好的变化,则时间可能更久。三季报期间可能会有成长股小的喘息窗口,时间和级别会比4-8月小很多。(2)可以在半年内超配金融地产。银行地产的超额收益大多出现在经济下降后期到经济回升早期,在经济确定改善之前,反而更容易产生超额收益。非银估值位置更好,但近期正面催化剂较少,启动时间可能比银行地产略晚,但依然建议超配。(3)消费的逻辑演绎还不充分。疫情后投资者开始逐渐预期经济恢复,这一恢复的过程虽然受到房地产销售的波折,但大方向上还能持续。建议优先关注疫后产能格局优化的酒店、航空,后续等待稳增长效果,逐渐增配和经济相关度高的家电等。(4)周期股长期逻辑完美,短期正在承受美国经济可能会衰退的影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}