Edinjj的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Edinjj

Edinjj

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0勋章

2021-01-25

$腾讯控股(00700)$记录一下翻倍

2020-06-13

$燃石医学(BNR)$第一次美股打新，谢谢老虎给我零花钱

2020-06-03

$蔚来(NIO)$冲呀我的未来就看蔚来了[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2020-04-24

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$今天去星巴克买个素肉汉堡

2020-04-24

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$交易Mark，持有三天迅速止盈[财迷] [财迷]

2020-04-20

$Glu移动(GLUU)$第一次晒收益就贡献给Glu吧

2022-05-22

ESG指数体量那么小，被你说得好像踢出标普一样😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-12

$英伟达(NVDA)$gogogo[财迷]

2020-05-11

$腾讯控股(00700)$爱鹅厂🐧

2020-04-29

$吉利德科学(GILD)$今晚带我飞好吗小吉

2020-04-28

$3M(MMM)$为我喜欢的一个公司打个call[得意] [得意]

2020-04-14

$Glu移动(GLUU)$居然无意中买中了一个好东西

2023-06-25

读者着都觉得可笑，一直被低估一直被抛售！汇市股市楼市全面暴跌[笑哭] [笑哭]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$继续加油呀

2020-04-28

$3M(MMM)$冲起来[财迷] [财迷]

2020-06-24

$联合保健产品(AHPI)$买入3天逆势拉升mark一下[害羞] [害羞] [害羞]

2020-05-13

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$小破站加油💪

2021-07-08

主要不破发都爱你

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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idStr":"3547119052071644","authorIdStr":"3547119052071644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"读者着都觉得可笑，一直被低估一直被抛售！汇市股市楼市全面暴跌[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"读者着都觉得可笑，一直被低估一直被抛售！汇市股市楼市全面暴跌[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"读者着都觉得可笑，一直被低估一直被抛售！汇市股市楼市全面暴跌[笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191000282681512","repostId":"1137115068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137115068","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1687649438,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137115068?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-25 07:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"端午假期6件大事或影响节后市场！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137115068","media":"Wind万得","summary":"端午小长假已结束，新一周工作日已开启。不过逢周日A股仍休市，但假期多个重磅大事和外围市场普跌对下周一国内市场开盘交易或有一定的影响。//  假期6件大事  //1、多国央行同时加息6月22日，英国央行","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>端午小长假已结束，新一周工作日已开启。不过逢周日A股仍休市，但假期多个重磅大事和外围市场普跌对下周一国内市场开盘交易或有一定的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>//  假期6件大事  //</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1、多国央行同时加息</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月22日，英国央行宣布将指标利率从4.50%上调至5.00%，市场预估为4.75%，为连续第13次加息，为2008年9月以来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一天瑞士央行宣布将利率上调25个百分点至1.75%，以应对通胀。这是瑞士央行自去年开始加息周期以来连续第五次上调利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挪威央行22日也宣布，将基准利率上调0.5个百分点至3.75%，以抑制通货膨胀。如果此次加息未能有效抑制通胀，8月可能再加息50个基点，将基准利率上调至4.25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而土耳其央行22日更是宣布大幅加息650个基点，将基准利率提高至15%，这是土耳其央行自2021年3月以来首次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">端午假期，美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会和参议院银行委员会听证会讲话也表态，美联储未来可能会有更多加息。如果经济表现符合预期，委员会中有2/3的人认为今年再次加息两次是合适的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2、多个国家、地区商会负责人看好中国经济</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第十三届世界商会大会在瑞士日内瓦举行期间，多个国家和地区的商会负责人表达了对中国经济的信心。迪拜商会总裁兼首席执行官穆罕默德•卢塔表示，中国经济增长基础稳固，有强大的制造业和人才库支撑，这对创新至关重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">意大利都灵商会主席达里奥•加利纳表示，巨大的中国市场对意大利产品和旅游业至关重要。中国基础设施良好，消费群体规模大，这为企业家在中国发展带来不少机遇。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3、国内旅游业全面恢复</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月24日，携程发布2023端午假期旅行总结。从数据来看，部分旅游业态的恢复进展已超过疫情前水平，其中国内门票业务等订单量较2019年同期已翻倍。“松弛感”旅行火热、长线游热度提前、避暑旅游达到新高度等成为今年端午假期旅游市场的主要亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">携程研究院战略研究中心高级研究员沈佳旎认为，今年端午成为名副其实的“五年来最火端午”，给旅游市场重新步入增长轨道的第一个半年画上了圆满的句号。同时，由于今年端午临近暑期，在亲子、毕业生等群体的带动下，暑期旅游市场将提前开启，释放积蓄已久的旅游消费潜力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4、期货业大动作不断</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着各项监管政策的明确，期货业正拉开新一轮大发展的序幕。不少期货公司已开始积极增资，以抓住行业发展的机遇。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有行业人士透露，证监会最新修订的《期货公司监督管理办法》有望在近期颁布实施。由于《办法》在拓宽期货公司业务范围的同时并提高准入门槛，对期货公司净资本实力、分类评级提出更高要求。有行业人士预计，期货公司或迎来新一波增资潮。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>5、全球股市普跌</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">端午假期，全球主要经济体14个股指，全部以下跌报收，其中美股三大股指因前期持续回探，周四有所反弹，周五再度下跌，因此端午期间累计跌幅不大都在1%以内，欧洲三大股指均下跌在1%~1.5%之间，而亚太市场跌幅较大，澳洲标普200、日经225指数下探在2%以上，下周市场或仍较弱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c21d257f17353f9a79569f1b1391ab\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"1008\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>6、全球大宗涨少跌多</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">端午假期，全球主要大宗商品表现也不佳，除了NYMEX天然气、CBOT小麦和LME镍三个品种上涨以外，其余11个品种出现下跌，占比为78.6%。其中NYMEX天然气大涨5%以上遥遥领先，而NYMEX原油、CBOT大豆跌幅较大，均超过4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0d5b68a19449b641d2db9c85701a314\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"1008\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>//  海内外机构看好中国市场  //</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A股市场国际影响力不断增强，外资资管机构长期看好A股市场。今年以来，国际金融机构加码布局A股市场，目前外商全资公募基金已达8家。富达国际在近期发布的研报中表示：“<strong>我们仍然看好中国经济复苏的前景，中国市场对海外投资者仍具有较强的吸引力</strong>。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利基金认为当前市场估值处于历史较低水平，市场预期处于底部区域。而三季度有望看到一些宏观经济指标重新抬升，库存周期有望在3季度进入被动去库存阶段，工业企业利润将开始回升。因此，当前A股市场处于低估值、低预期阶段，市场持续下行风险较小，央行降息之后宏观流动性保持宽松，<strong>下半年随着上市公司业绩增速的提升，悲观情绪有望扭转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金认为，A股包括港股市场后续都可以期待一轮行情。其认为全球流动性拐点正在浮现，下半年PPI、CPI工业企业的盈利增速，包括上市公司的盈利增速，都有望好于上半年。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博时基金判断，当前我国经济基本面依然延续修复的态势不变，各项政策都延续服务经济增长的基调，流动性相对较充裕，<strong>A股市场中长期向好的趋势仍在、但中途仍难免波折，依然存在结构性机会</strong>，或可适当关注受益经济修复的细分板块的机会，如消费板块的部分细分赛道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对港股未来走势，恒生前海基金邢程认为，考虑到中国经济修复维持温和复苏态势，尤其高频数据显示经济数据或延续弱势，短期整体市场可能依然缺乏明显趋势，或维持震荡格局。中期维度来看，<strong>中国经济温和复苏和美联储政策转向均较为确定，且当前估值水平和利好政策有望提供支撑。</strong>较低估值水平不仅将为市场抵御外部波动提供缓冲，也有望使港股市场对增长修复和政策信号更为敏感，从而提供更大的弹性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>端午假期6件大事或影响节后市场！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n端午假期6件大事或影响节后市场！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-06-25 07:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>端午小长假已结束，新一周工作日已开启。不过逢周日A股仍休市，但假期多个重磅大事和外围市场普跌对下周一国内市场开盘交易或有一定的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>//  假期6件大事  //</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1、多国央行同时加息</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月22日，英国央行宣布将指标利率从4.50%上调至5.00%，市场预估为4.75%，为连续第13次加息，为2008年9月以来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同一天瑞士央行宣布将利率上调25个百分点至1.75%，以应对通胀。这是瑞士央行自去年开始加息周期以来连续第五次上调利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挪威央行22日也宣布，将基准利率上调0.5个百分点至3.75%，以抑制通货膨胀。如果此次加息未能有效抑制通胀，8月可能再加息50个基点，将基准利率上调至4.25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而土耳其央行22日更是宣布大幅加息650个基点，将基准利率提高至15%，这是土耳其央行自2021年3月以来首次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">端午假期，美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会和参议院银行委员会听证会讲话也表态，美联储未来可能会有更多加息。如果经济表现符合预期，委员会中有2/3的人认为今年再次加息两次是合适的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2、多个国家、地区商会负责人看好中国经济</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第十三届世界商会大会在瑞士日内瓦举行期间，多个国家和地区的商会负责人表达了对中国经济的信心。迪拜商会总裁兼首席执行官穆罕默德•卢塔表示，中国经济增长基础稳固，有强大的制造业和人才库支撑，这对创新至关重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">意大利都灵商会主席达里奥•加利纳表示，巨大的中国市场对意大利产品和旅游业至关重要。中国基础设施良好，消费群体规模大，这为企业家在中国发展带来不少机遇。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3、国内旅游业全面恢复</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月24日，携程发布2023端午假期旅行总结。从数据来看，部分旅游业态的恢复进展已超过疫情前水平，其中国内门票业务等订单量较2019年同期已翻倍。“松弛感”旅行火热、长线游热度提前、避暑旅游达到新高度等成为今年端午假期旅游市场的主要亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">携程研究院战略研究中心高级研究员沈佳旎认为，今年端午成为名副其实的“五年来最火端午”，给旅游市场重新步入增长轨道的第一个半年画上了圆满的句号。同时，由于今年端午临近暑期，在亲子、毕业生等群体的带动下，暑期旅游市场将提前开启，释放积蓄已久的旅游消费潜力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4、期货业大动作不断</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着各项监管政策的明确，期货业正拉开新一轮大发展的序幕。不少期货公司已开始积极增资，以抓住行业发展的机遇。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有行业人士透露，证监会最新修订的《期货公司监督管理办法》有望在近期颁布实施。由于《办法》在拓宽期货公司业务范围的同时并提高准入门槛，对期货公司净资本实力、分类评级提出更高要求。有行业人士预计，期货公司或迎来新一波增资潮。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>5、全球股市普跌</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">端午假期，全球主要经济体14个股指，全部以下跌报收，其中美股三大股指因前期持续回探，周四有所反弹，周五再度下跌，因此端午期间累计跌幅不大都在1%以内，欧洲三大股指均下跌在1%~1.5%之间，而亚太市场跌幅较大，澳洲标普200、日经225指数下探在2%以上，下周市场或仍较弱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c21d257f17353f9a79569f1b1391ab\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"1008\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>6、全球大宗涨少跌多</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">端午假期，全球主要大宗商品表现也不佳，除了NYMEX天然气、CBOT小麦和LME镍三个品种上涨以外，其余11个品种出现下跌，占比为78.6%。其中NYMEX天然气大涨5%以上遥遥领先，而NYMEX原油、CBOT大豆跌幅较大，均超过4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0d5b68a19449b641d2db9c85701a314\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"1008\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>//  海内外机构看好中国市场  //</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A股市场国际影响力不断增强，外资资管机构长期看好A股市场。今年以来，国际金融机构加码布局A股市场，目前外商全资公募基金已达8家。富达国际在近期发布的研报中表示：“<strong>我们仍然看好中国经济复苏的前景，中国市场对海外投资者仍具有较强的吸引力</strong>。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利基金认为当前市场估值处于历史较低水平，市场预期处于底部区域。而三季度有望看到一些宏观经济指标重新抬升，库存周期有望在3季度进入被动去库存阶段，工业企业利润将开始回升。因此，当前A股市场处于低估值、低预期阶段，市场持续下行风险较小，央行降息之后宏观流动性保持宽松，<strong>下半年随着上市公司业绩增速的提升，悲观情绪有望扭转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金认为，A股包括港股市场后续都可以期待一轮行情。其认为全球流动性拐点正在浮现，下半年PPI、CPI工业企业的盈利增速，包括上市公司的盈利增速，都有望好于上半年。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">博时基金判断，当前我国经济基本面依然延续修复的态势不变，各项政策都延续服务经济增长的基调，流动性相对较充裕，<strong>A股市场中长期向好的趋势仍在、但中途仍难免波折，依然存在结构性机会</strong>，或可适当关注受益经济修复的细分板块的机会，如消费板块的部分细分赛道。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对港股未来走势，恒生前海基金邢程认为，考虑到中国经济修复维持温和复苏态势，尤其高频数据显示经济数据或延续弱势，短期整体市场可能依然缺乏明显趋势，或维持震荡格局。中期维度来看，<strong>中国经济温和复苏和美联储政策转向均较为确定，且当前估值水平和利好政策有望提供支撑。</strong>较低估值水平不仅将为市场抵御外部波动提供缓冲，也有望使港股市场对增长修复和政策信号更为敏感，从而提供更大的弹性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137115068","content_text":"端午小长假已结束，新一周工作日已开启。不过逢周日A股仍休市，但假期多个重磅大事和外围市场普跌对下周一国内市场开盘交易或有一定的影响。//  假期6件大事  //1、多国央行同时加息6月22日，英国央行宣布将指标利率从4.50%上调至5.00%，市场预估为4.75%，为连续第13次加息，为2008年9月以来最高水平。同一天瑞士央行宣布将利率上调25个百分点至1.75%，以应对通胀。这是瑞士央行自去年开始加息周期以来连续第五次上调利率。挪威央行22日也宣布，将基准利率上调0.5个百分点至3.75%，以抑制通货膨胀。如果此次加息未能有效抑制通胀，8月可能再加息50个基点，将基准利率上调至4.25%。而土耳其央行22日更是宣布大幅加息650个基点，将基准利率提高至15%，这是土耳其央行自2021年3月以来首次加息。端午假期，美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会和参议院银行委员会听证会讲话也表态，美联储未来可能会有更多加息。如果经济表现符合预期，委员会中有2/3的人认为今年再次加息两次是合适的。2、多个国家、地区商会负责人看好中国经济第十三届世界商会大会在瑞士日内瓦举行期间，多个国家和地区的商会负责人表达了对中国经济的信心。迪拜商会总裁兼首席执行官穆罕默德•卢塔表示，中国经济增长基础稳固，有强大的制造业和人才库支撑，这对创新至关重要。意大利都灵商会主席达里奥•加利纳表示，巨大的中国市场对意大利产品和旅游业至关重要。中国基础设施良好，消费群体规模大，这为企业家在中国发展带来不少机遇。3、国内旅游业全面恢复6月24日，携程发布2023端午假期旅行总结。从数据来看，部分旅游业态的恢复进展已超过疫情前水平，其中国内门票业务等订单量较2019年同期已翻倍。“松弛感”旅行火热、长线游热度提前、避暑旅游达到新高度等成为今年端午假期旅游市场的主要亮点。携程研究院战略研究中心高级研究员沈佳旎认为，今年端午成为名副其实的“五年来最火端午”，给旅游市场重新步入增长轨道的第一个半年画上了圆满的句号。同时，由于今年端午临近暑期，在亲子、毕业生等群体的带动下，暑期旅游市场将提前开启，释放积蓄已久的旅游消费潜力。4、期货业大动作不断随着各项监管政策的明确，期货业正拉开新一轮大发展的序幕。不少期货公司已开始积极增资，以抓住行业发展的机遇。有行业人士透露，证监会最新修订的《期货公司监督管理办法》有望在近期颁布实施。由于《办法》在拓宽期货公司业务范围的同时并提高准入门槛，对期货公司净资本实力、分类评级提出更高要求。有行业人士预计，期货公司或迎来新一波增资潮。5、全球股市普跌端午假期，全球主要经济体14个股指，全部以下跌报收，其中美股三大股指因前期持续回探，周四有所反弹，周五再度下跌，因此端午期间累计跌幅不大都在1%以内，欧洲三大股指均下跌在1%~1.5%之间，而亚太市场跌幅较大，澳洲标普200、日经225指数下探在2%以上，下周市场或仍较弱。6、全球大宗涨少跌多端午假期，全球主要大宗商品表现也不佳，除了NYMEX天然气、CBOT小麦和LME镍三个品种上涨以外，其余11个品种出现下跌，占比为78.6%。其中NYMEX天然气大涨5%以上遥遥领先，而NYMEX原油、CBOT大豆跌幅较大，均超过4%。//  海内外机构看好中国市场  //A股市场国际影响力不断增强，外资资管机构长期看好A股市场。今年以来，国际金融机构加码布局A股市场，目前外商全资公募基金已达8家。富达国际在近期发布的研报中表示：“我们仍然看好中国经济复苏的前景，中国市场对海外投资者仍具有较强的吸引力。”摩根士丹利基金认为当前市场估值处于历史较低水平，市场预期处于底部区域。而三季度有望看到一些宏观经济指标重新抬升，库存周期有望在3季度进入被动去库存阶段，工业企业利润将开始回升。因此，当前A股市场处于低估值、低预期阶段，市场持续下行风险较小，央行降息之后宏观流动性保持宽松，下半年随着上市公司业绩增速的提升，悲观情绪有望扭转。华夏基金认为，A股包括港股市场后续都可以期待一轮行情。其认为全球流动性拐点正在浮现，下半年PPI、CPI工业企业的盈利增速，包括上市公司的盈利增速，都有望好于上半年。博时基金判断，当前我国经济基本面依然延续修复的态势不变，各项政策都延续服务经济增长的基调，流动性相对较充裕，A股市场中长期向好的趋势仍在、但中途仍难免波折，依然存在结构性机会，或可适当关注受益经济修复的细分板块的机会，如消费板块的部分细分赛道。针对港股未来走势，恒生前海基金邢程认为，考虑到中国经济修复维持温和复苏态势，尤其高频数据显示经济数据或延续弱势，短期整体市场可能依然缺乏明显趋势，或维持震荡格局。中期维度来看，中国经济温和复苏和美联储政策转向均较为确定，且当前估值水平和利好政策有望提供支撑。较低估值水平不仅将为市场抵御外部波动提供缓冲，也有望使港股市场对增长修复和政策信号更为敏感，从而提供更大的弹性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615714663,"gmtCreate":1653184127752,"gmtModify":1653184127752,"author":{"id":"3547119052071644","authorId":"3547119052071644","name":"Edinjj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4f504084ccf3c19a4105ad3f219282f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547119052071644","authorIdStr":"3547119052071644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ESG指数体量那么小，被你说得好像踢出标普一样😂","listText":"ESG指数体量那么小，被你说得好像踢出标普一样😂","text":"ESG指数体量那么小，被你说得好像踢出标普一样😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615714663","repostId":"1109790779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109790779","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653106129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109790779?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-21 12:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109790779","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。</p><p>我们归纳的风险：</p><ol><li><p>涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；</p></li><li><p>TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；</p></li><li><p>MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；</p></li><li><p>TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；</p></li><li><p>MS和TSLA抵押贷款之间的15%差别，可能加剧流动性风险；</p></li><li><p>TWITTER的经营风险可能迫使MUSK筹集资金；</p></li><li><p>贷款方对冲来自股价的敞口暴露的风险。</p></li></ol><p><b>一、并购动机 = 操纵股价，套利</b></p><p>首先，如我们上次猜测，Musk这次并购很可能是为了操纵股价而套利，类似当年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在2012年溢价全面私有化港股阿里巴巴网络有限公司，等到2017年再重新上市，从而实现巨额套利。虽然当初有溢价，但因为管理层知道与企业未来基本面相关的内幕消息，所以其实是廉价收购。</p><p>这次Musk的方案是，私有化Twitter以后，对企业和政/府用户开始收费。为未来更高价再次IPO做好准备。所以不要以为为他真的是人类灵魂工程师，为了所谓的言、论、自、由而战，他是为了利益，就像他以前操纵Tesla和MEME stocks, DogeCoin股价一样。只不过这次更加隐蔽，吃相没那么难看。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c991095e162a09cad0b552764551a5\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>可惜，<b>聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死</b>。</p><p>—— 其后，TSLA股价从宣布收购起</p><p><b>至5/13，</b></p><p><b>从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%</b></p><p><b>从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%</b>。</p><p><b>即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线</b>。</p><p>—— 当然，由于我们不知道抵押贷款合同从何时正式生效，所以在计算这些阈值会有误差。</p><p>——但是，从Musk最近一周的动作，我们明显观察到他的捉襟见肘。</p><p><b>二、5/2 Musk推出Twitter优先股融资计划</b></p><p>据Bloomberg和Reuters, Musk在5月初和PE基金Apollo和Ares商议，通过发行价值60亿美金的Twitter优先股，来降低收购成本。由此，我们看出，Musk已经嗅到自己的金融危机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e819d7c525ad8010f3646842be7259fa\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The billionaire’s advisers, led byMorgan Stanley, have begun soliciting interest from potential investors for as much as $6 billion in preferred equity financing, the sources said, asking not to be named discussing a private transaction.</p><p>—— Bloomberg 5/2</p><p>The new financing, which could come in the form of preferred or common equity, could reduce the $21 billion cash contribution that Musk has committed to the deal as well as a margin loan he secured against his Tesla shares, the sources said.</p><p>The banks that agreed last month to provide $13 billion in loans based on Twitter&#39;s business balked at offering more debt for Musk&#39;s acquisition given the San Francisco-based company&#39;s limited cash flow, Reuters reported last month.read more</p><p>Musk has also pledged some of his Tesla shares to banks to arrange a $12.5 billion margin loan to help fund the deal. He may seek to trim the size of the margin loan based on the new investor interest in the deal financing, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the sources said.</p><p>Major investors such as private equity firms, hedge funds and high net-worth individuals are in talks with Musk about providing preferred equity financing for the acquisition, the sources said. Preferred equity would pay a fixed dividend from Twitter, in the same way that a bond or a loan pays regular interest but would appreciate in line with the equity value of the company.</p><p>Apollo Global Management Inc(APO.N) and Ares Management Corp(ARES.N) are among the private equity firms that have been in talks about providing the financing, the sources added.</p><p>—— Reuters 5/3</p><p><b>三、5/13, 暂停收购，埋怨僵尸粉</b></p><p>5/13，Musk突然在Twitter宣布暂停收购Twitter，声称要彻查Twitter的僵尸粉，彷佛假如僵尸粉超过5%的比例，就要借坡下驴，放弃收购或压低价格。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0c6319559ea3997759b4813c655b0f\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，Musk之前真的不知道Twitter有僵尸粉吗？<b>在4/26，他亲口在Twitter上发言，“让Twitter更伟大...通过打败僵尸粉”</b>。他既然要说让Twitter更伟大了，难道如此宏伟的目标只是基于5%的边际效应？我看绝非如此：有点数学或企业管理常识的人，都不会是这个小于5%的潜台词。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/115818af01e07657d1f52c8b637a8860\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>由此我们可以看到：</p><ol><li><p><b>Musk的出尔反尔，而且如此大的并购消息不是通过正规金融媒体渠道发布，而是通过Twitter，颇有川建国同志治国之风；</b></p></li><li><p><b>如此行径，实在无法避免内幕交易之嫌。假如他的亲友提前做多Tesla/做空Twitter, 当天可以盈利15.4%。</b></p></li></ol><p>消息一出，Twitter跌9.7%，Tesla股票反弹5.7% VS NASDAQ100 +3.7% —— 这是个很不正常的现象，因为Tesla的股价近5年，和NASDAQ的beta接近于2，正常来说如此大的利好该反弹7-10%才对。<b>仅仅反弹5.7%，证明：</b></p><ol><li><p><b>投资者已经对Tesla或Musk失去信任度，为估值减分；</b></p></li><li><p><b>或者认为该收购无法取消。</b></p></li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e928090c3446b17f67100ca36ec2153\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>四、5/17，减持SpaceX谣言</b></p><p>5/17，再传谣言，SpaceX要向员工以70USD/股减持股票，使得公司估值达到1250亿USD。据说Musk持有其44%股份（As of August last year Musk owned almost 44% of SpaceX, according to a Federal Communications Commission filing reported bytech blog WCCF Tech.）</p><p>这个谣言更加加固了Musk已经处于需要补仓的金融困境。</p><p>SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees, The New York Post and Bloomberg report.</p><p>SpaceX plans to sell at $70 a share, which would value the company at $125 billion.</p><p>This comes as CEO Elon Musk is reportedly seeking new financing for his Twitter takeover.</p><p>Elon Musk&#39;s SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees,The New York Post andBloomberg report.</p><p>Sources told The Post and Bloomberg SpaceX is planning to sell employee stock at $70 a share. The Post reported the sale, which would value the company at $125 billion, would start on Tuesday.</p><p>https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-selling-shares-125-billion-102904936.html</p><p><b>五、</b>5/19，再传噩耗：<b>标准普尔道琼斯指数公司已将Tesla从其标普500ESG指数中删除；称关注Tesla处理与自动驾驶有关的车祸后的调查情况</b>。</p><p>此举可谓雪上加霜，大概率会导致ESG <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>基金投资者，被迫减持Tesla股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee999c65fd65158ff1df887f7138167\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>六、5/20，再传性侵丑闻</b></p><p>据爆料，Musk性侵SpaceX女员工，并支付封口费。这个新闻可能会再次刺激ESG基金减持Tesla。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f3defbd4f1cc071bb83b6ff91162bb2\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>七、全球首富也许被(民主党或华尔街)做局？</b></p><p>注意，</p><p>TSLA股价从宣布收购起</p><p><b>至5/13，</b></p><p><b>从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%</b></p><p><b>从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%</b>。</p><p><b>即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线</b>。</p><p>而本周，各种与Musk和Tesla相关的丑闻利空如此频繁地 —— 配合Musk的补仓线被轰炸 —— 而出现，我们不得不怀疑，也有有人在暗中做局，猎杀Musk。</p><p>我们注意到，在Musk签的股权抵押贷款合同里有补充条款，限定他在某些情况下必须全额缴款：其中两条是：<b>一旦发生</b></p><ul><li><p><b>对借款人付款的判决或命令</b></p></li><li><p><b>任何政府对借款人的，合理预期会产生重大不利影响的调查，</b></p></li></ul><p><b>任何以上事件发生，以及随后条款的执行，都将终止Musk的保证金贷款协议，全部 125 亿美元将必须立即支付。</b></p><p><b>这次空乘事件会不会引发法制机关介入呢？</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1cd6600b67edf6f380dbe05a56ab8f7\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>我们之所以怀疑华尔街介入，是因为如我们前文分析，Tesla股票有巨大估值泡沫，而股权抵押贷款把系统性风险与股票泡沫打通，千载难逢的割韭菜机会 —— 联想 Bill Hwang 去年大概率被投行或相关机构割韭菜。</p><p>但是，我们也不能排除这是一场Biden、民主党和Musk的大战。二者仇恨由来已久。今年一月，Biden为了拉动电动车投资，接见GM和Ford CEOs，单单没有电动车一号网红Tesla CEO。Musk在Twitter公开骂Biden是别人的傀儡，欺骗美国大众。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be89824bece144e40a481152c58f72ef\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"968\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb58831c2c9e38b5353cb7d5a08a875b\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5de04dbb432e818feeaa047f8ff254\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>5/19, Musk再次在Twitter公开批评民主党制造分裂和仇恨，批评民主党作弊，声称要支持共和党。</p><p>我虽然不喜欢Musk操纵金融市场和作秀，但这几句话深表同意 —— 看看Biden上台后，全球分裂，欧洲陷入战火，准三次世界大战发生的概率在上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c651863f4980f85e14520d984baaf9b\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e334dbb02ac7616c91429b3f7aecfe5\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"89\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c5216633ce01cbb650b69bc58d753c\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>所以，本周的关于Tesla和Musk的丑闻，我们无法排除民主党在背后操纵：</p><p>Biden和民主党为了打击俄罗斯，不惜把美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>的民生，股市，下届美国总统大选，美国原油战略储备，乌克兰百姓的生命，欧洲的和平和通胀，一起押在牌桌上；</p><p>那么，即使Tesla的权重在SP500里极其重要，牵一发而动全身，Biden和民主党会不会为了打压Musk，而在所不惜呢？</p><p><b>八、Musk可以停止收购Twitter，舍卒保车，全身而退？</b></p><p>这个问题，具体需要看Musk和Twitter, 投行签署的并购条款。我们拿不到一手的完整资料，无法判断。但是根据Bloomberg记者Matt Levine的信，大概率无法取消 —— 因为</p><ul><li><p>Musk签的是一份&#34;盲合同&#34;，</p></li><li><p>他必须尽全力去履行合同义务，促使交易完成；他不能暂停。</p></li><li><p>即使证明Twitter有5%僵尸粉，Musk也无法脱身。虽然Twitter 在一份证券文件中承认，多年来它（略微）高估了每日活跃用户。合并协议包含一项条款，如果 Twitter 的证券文件有误，马斯克可以离开——这 5% 的数字在其证券文件中——但前提是该错误会对公司产生“重大不利影响”。（参见第 4.6(a) 和 7.2(b) 节。）这是一个令人难以置信的高标准：特拉华州法院几乎从未找到“重大不利影响”。法院表示，“重大不利影响”必须是“以持续时间显著的方式严重威胁目标的整体盈利潜力”的东西；根据经验，“重大不利影响”要求长期盈利能力下降 40%。如果结果是 6% 或 20% 或 50% 的 Twitter 帐户是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>，那将是令人尴尬的，甚至可能会减少 Twitter 未来的广告收入，但它会被定性为“重大不利影响” 吗？很难。</p></li><li><p>“待定细节支持计算”披露——“虚假或垃圾邮件账户的平均值……仅占 Twitter 可货币化每日活跃用户的不到 5%——这句话多年来一直在 Twitter 的证券文件中警告，“在做出这一决定时，我们做出了重大判断，因此我们对虚假或垃圾账户的估计可能无法准确反映此类账户的实际数量，虚假或垃圾账户的实际数量可能高于我们的估计。” 马斯克在提出收购 Twitter 之前大概率肯定读到过，所以他现在很难以此为借口拒绝收购。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5e5933de901221acf8509dd5854aede\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"1001\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>假如这位记者的推理成立的话，Musk看来很难脱身。那么他将继续陷入股票下跌 —— 流动性收缩的恶性循环的漩涡。</p><p><b>所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。</b></p><p><b>九、报应</b></p><p>Musk操纵股价，号召散户用期权逼空，导致很多散户死无葬身之地。我们之前写过系列文章，不再赘述。</p><p>我们去年预测过，Musk号召逼空的MEME stocks和要送上月球的DogeCoin大概率会长期阴跌，跌回起点，甚至变成废纸 —— 如今大部分已经验证。</p><p>我们看他操纵的DogeCoin，在他喊话前，明显有人在0.036-0.048之间建仓收集筹码，然后他出来喊话，DogeCoin火箭上天冲到0.725，比建仓区升幅达13.5倍，然后长期阴跌，目前0.08，离最高价跌幅近90%，想要解套，需要一波9倍以上的牛市。这是一套标准的，在A股常见的游资坐庄的模式。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd8d787898a192f148c969bf4cf700a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>可惜，天真的韭菜们还给Musk写了不少赞歌。此处摘录两首，</p><p>第一首，歌手要把DogeCoin送上1USD；</p><p>第二首，一个绿色能源的拥护者，刚被Robinhood在Elon Musk号召的期权逼空大潮里割韭菜，付不起房租，把仅有的余钱买入Dogecoin，希望Elon Musk送她上天，并给她在登月留一席之地...</p><p>我是70后，虽然没经历过文革，但多少感受过余孽，所以对日月神教式的洗脑+割韭菜模式天生反感，也敏感。所以去年我们连续撰文，警告Elon Musk的庞氏骗局。</p><blockquote>Musk 为了个人恩怨，偏见，复仇，鼓动群众，利用他们对贫富差距的不满（他本人就是央行放水的资产泡沫导致贫富差距扩大的最大的受益者，全地球最大，没有之一），利用他们一夜暴富的心理，买庞氏骗局 —— 目的是逼空，而这些空头大多数是做空资产泡沫，做空庞氏骗局的人 —— 完全不顾弱势群体的实际经济利益。”  “大众对Musk的崇拜，是奴性，缺乏独立思考的体现，甚至包含拜金主义在里面 ——  假如他们的股票没有暴涨，公司濒临破产，还会有这么多拥趸吗？... 这个事件，本质就像靠民主投票上台的纳粹煽动德国人屠杀犹太人，是人类的悲哀。尤其希望每个本质善良的普通人，低收入的人，多点独立思考，不要被政客、权谋家、利益集团玩弄。</blockquote><blockquote>这样一个</blockquote><blockquote>公众可以信任吗？</blockquote><blockquote>我并不反对Musk合法赚钱，</blockquote><blockquote>我只反对众多媒体把他塑造成人类的希望或救星。</blockquote><blockquote>Musk根本不是什么钢铁侠</blockquote><blockquote>—— 侠，是代表弱者，挑战暴力、维护公众正义的人。</blockquote><blockquote>他的事迹大多为了个人私利，割弱小百姓韭菜，离“侠”太远。</blockquote><ul><li><p>Tsla股票也许是下一个即将破裂的资产泡沫 (修订版) | 泷韬全球宏观</p></li><li><p>Elon Musk如果当权，对人类将是灾难GME逼空事件的赢家，输家，和政客Chamath Palihapitiya和Elon Musk都是华尔街的既得利益者驳Chamath Palihapitiya在CNBC的发言</p></li></ul><p><b>所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。</b></p><p>不过虽然我反感Musk为了个人私利，操纵大众思想的类似纳粹的行为，但假如是民主党给他做局，我们不得不慨叹在Deep State的政客面前，作为全球首富是多么渺小和悲哀。在对是世界的操纵和伤害，以及面具的厚度层面，Musk还远远不及。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球首富也许被做局猎杀？马斯克弃卒保“车” 为时已晚\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-21 12:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg><strong>泷韬全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。我们归纳的风险：涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；MS和TSLA抵押...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75856ca600aa7110c9cdf0d842b9cef3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RnCE4lSJCFNvjKRTofy8wg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109790779","content_text":"我们在4/28警告，Elon Musk涉嫌操纵Tesla（故意放利好）和Twitter股价（违反二级市场并购条款），用股权抵押融资并购，给自己埋下了一颗金融核弹，可能导致其像Bill Hwang一样爆仓。我们归纳的风险：涉嫌操纵股票，导致波动率加大；TWITTER股东诉讼MUSK未按证券法举牌；MS抵押贷款的补仓线40%；TSLA内部对高管规定的25%补仓线，可能加剧流动性风险；MS和TSLA抵押贷款之间的15%差别，可能加剧流动性风险；TWITTER的经营风险可能迫使MUSK筹集资金；贷款方对冲来自股价的敞口暴露的风险。一、并购动机 = 操纵股价，套利首先，如我们上次猜测，Musk这次并购很可能是为了操纵股价而套利，类似当年阿里巴巴在2012年溢价全面私有化港股阿里巴巴网络有限公司，等到2017年再重新上市，从而实现巨额套利。虽然当初有溢价，但因为管理层知道与企业未来基本面相关的内幕消息，所以其实是廉价收购。这次Musk的方案是，私有化Twitter以后，对企业和政/府用户开始收费。为未来更高价再次IPO做好准备。所以不要以为为他真的是人类灵魂工程师，为了所谓的言、论、自、由而战，他是为了利益，就像他以前操纵Tesla和MEME stocks, DogeCoin股价一样。只不过这次更加隐蔽，吃相没那么难看。可惜，聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。—— 其后，TSLA股价从宣布收购起至5/13，从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%。即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线。—— 当然，由于我们不知道抵押贷款合同从何时正式生效，所以在计算这些阈值会有误差。——但是，从Musk最近一周的动作，我们明显观察到他的捉襟见肘。二、5/2 Musk推出Twitter优先股融资计划据Bloomberg和Reuters, Musk在5月初和PE基金Apollo和Ares商议，通过发行价值60亿美金的Twitter优先股，来降低收购成本。由此，我们看出，Musk已经嗅到自己的金融危机。The billionaire’s advisers, led byMorgan Stanley, have begun soliciting interest from potential investors for as much as $6 billion in preferred equity financing, the sources said, asking not to be named discussing a private transaction.—— Bloomberg 5/2The new financing, which could come in the form of preferred or common equity, could reduce the $21 billion cash contribution that Musk has committed to the deal as well as a margin loan he secured against his Tesla shares, the sources said.The banks that agreed last month to provide $13 billion in loans based on Twitter's business balked at offering more debt for Musk's acquisition given the San Francisco-based company's limited cash flow, Reuters reported last month.read moreMusk has also pledged some of his Tesla shares to banks to arrange a $12.5 billion margin loan to help fund the deal. He may seek to trim the size of the margin loan based on the new investor interest in the deal financing, one of the sources said.Major investors such as private equity firms, hedge funds and high net-worth individuals are in talks with Musk about providing preferred equity financing for the acquisition, the sources said. Preferred equity would pay a fixed dividend from Twitter, in the same way that a bond or a loan pays regular interest but would appreciate in line with the equity value of the company.Apollo Global Management Inc(APO.N) and Ares Management Corp(ARES.N) are among the private equity firms that have been in talks about providing the financing, the sources added.—— Reuters 5/3三、5/13, 暂停收购，埋怨僵尸粉5/13，Musk突然在Twitter宣布暂停收购Twitter，声称要彻查Twitter的僵尸粉，彷佛假如僵尸粉超过5%的比例，就要借坡下驴，放弃收购或压低价格。但是，Musk之前真的不知道Twitter有僵尸粉吗？在4/26，他亲口在Twitter上发言，“让Twitter更伟大...通过打败僵尸粉”。他既然要说让Twitter更伟大了，难道如此宏伟的目标只是基于5%的边际效应？我看绝非如此：有点数学或企业管理常识的人，都不会是这个小于5%的潜台词。由此我们可以看到：Musk的出尔反尔，而且如此大的并购消息不是通过正规金融媒体渠道发布，而是通过Twitter，颇有川建国同志治国之风；如此行径，实在无法避免内幕交易之嫌。假如他的亲友提前做多Tesla/做空Twitter, 当天可以盈利15.4%。消息一出，Twitter跌9.7%，Tesla股票反弹5.7% VS NASDAQ100 +3.7% —— 这是个很不正常的现象，因为Tesla的股价近5年，和NASDAQ的beta接近于2，正常来说如此大的利好该反弹7-10%才对。仅仅反弹5.7%，证明：投资者已经对Tesla或Musk失去信任度，为估值减分；或者认为该收购无法取消。四、5/17，减持SpaceX谣言5/17，再传谣言，SpaceX要向员工以70USD/股减持股票，使得公司估值达到1250亿USD。据说Musk持有其44%股份（As of August last year Musk owned almost 44% of SpaceX, according to a Federal Communications Commission filing reported bytech blog WCCF Tech.）这个谣言更加加固了Musk已经处于需要补仓的金融困境。SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees, The New York Post and Bloomberg report.SpaceX plans to sell at $70 a share, which would value the company at $125 billion.This comes as CEO Elon Musk is reportedly seeking new financing for his Twitter takeover.Elon Musk's SpaceX is planning to sell shares to employees,The New York Post andBloomberg report.Sources told The Post and Bloomberg SpaceX is planning to sell employee stock at $70 a share. The Post reported the sale, which would value the company at $125 billion, would start on Tuesday.https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-selling-shares-125-billion-102904936.html五、5/19，再传噩耗：标准普尔道琼斯指数公司已将Tesla从其标普500ESG指数中删除；称关注Tesla处理与自动驾驶有关的车祸后的调查情况。此举可谓雪上加霜，大概率会导致ESG Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF基金投资者，被迫减持Tesla股票。六、5/20，再传性侵丑闻据爆料，Musk性侵SpaceX女员工，并支付封口费。这个新闻可能会再次刺激ESG基金减持Tesla。七、全球首富也许被(民主党或华尔街)做局？注意，TSLA股价从宣布收购起至5/13，从4/4第一次宣布收购，最大跌幅37.3%从4/25宣布用股权质押方案起，最大跌幅31.8%。即使从后者算，其跌幅已经超过TESLA 25%内部补仓线。而本周，各种与Musk和Tesla相关的丑闻利空如此频繁地 —— 配合Musk的补仓线被轰炸 —— 而出现，我们不得不怀疑，也有有人在暗中做局，猎杀Musk。我们注意到，在Musk签的股权抵押贷款合同里有补充条款，限定他在某些情况下必须全额缴款：其中两条是：一旦发生对借款人付款的判决或命令任何政府对借款人的，合理预期会产生重大不利影响的调查，任何以上事件发生，以及随后条款的执行，都将终止Musk的保证金贷款协议，全部 125 亿美元将必须立即支付。这次空乘事件会不会引发法制机关介入呢？我们之所以怀疑华尔街介入，是因为如我们前文分析，Tesla股票有巨大估值泡沫，而股权抵押贷款把系统性风险与股票泡沫打通，千载难逢的割韭菜机会 —— 联想 Bill Hwang 去年大概率被投行或相关机构割韭菜。但是，我们也不能排除这是一场Biden、民主党和Musk的大战。二者仇恨由来已久。今年一月，Biden为了拉动电动车投资，接见GM和Ford CEOs，单单没有电动车一号网红Tesla CEO。Musk在Twitter公开骂Biden是别人的傀儡，欺骗美国大众。5/19, Musk再次在Twitter公开批评民主党制造分裂和仇恨，批评民主党作弊，声称要支持共和党。我虽然不喜欢Musk操纵金融市场和作秀，但这几句话深表同意 —— 看看Biden上台后，全球分裂，欧洲陷入战火，准三次世界大战发生的概率在上升。所以，本周的关于Tesla和Musk的丑闻，我们无法排除民主党在背后操纵：Biden和民主党为了打击俄罗斯，不惜把美国全民的民生，股市，下届美国总统大选，美国原油战略储备，乌克兰百姓的生命，欧洲的和平和通胀，一起押在牌桌上；那么，即使Tesla的权重在SP500里极其重要，牵一发而动全身，Biden和民主党会不会为了打压Musk，而在所不惜呢？八、Musk可以停止收购Twitter，舍卒保车，全身而退？这个问题，具体需要看Musk和Twitter, 投行签署的并购条款。我们拿不到一手的完整资料，无法判断。但是根据Bloomberg记者Matt Levine的信，大概率无法取消 —— 因为Musk签的是一份\"盲合同\"，他必须尽全力去履行合同义务，促使交易完成；他不能暂停。即使证明Twitter有5%僵尸粉，Musk也无法脱身。虽然Twitter 在一份证券文件中承认，多年来它（略微）高估了每日活跃用户。合并协议包含一项条款，如果 Twitter 的证券文件有误，马斯克可以离开——这 5% 的数字在其证券文件中——但前提是该错误会对公司产生“重大不利影响”。（参见第 4.6(a) 和 7.2(b) 节。）这是一个令人难以置信的高标准：特拉华州法院几乎从未找到“重大不利影响”。法院表示，“重大不利影响”必须是“以持续时间显著的方式严重威胁目标的整体盈利潜力”的东西；根据经验，“重大不利影响”要求长期盈利能力下降 40%。如果结果是 6% 或 20% 或 50% 的 Twitter 帐户是机器人，那将是令人尴尬的，甚至可能会减少 Twitter 未来的广告收入，但它会被定性为“重大不利影响” 吗？很难。“待定细节支持计算”披露——“虚假或垃圾邮件账户的平均值……仅占 Twitter 可货币化每日活跃用户的不到 5%——这句话多年来一直在 Twitter 的证券文件中警告，“在做出这一决定时，我们做出了重大判断，因此我们对虚假或垃圾账户的估计可能无法准确反映此类账户的实际数量，虚假或垃圾账户的实际数量可能高于我们的估计。” 马斯克在提出收购 Twitter 之前大概率肯定读到过，所以他现在很难以此为借口拒绝收购。假如这位记者的推理成立的话，Musk看来很难脱身。那么他将继续陷入股票下跌 —— 流动性收缩的恶性循环的漩涡。所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。九、报应Musk操纵股价，号召散户用期权逼空，导致很多散户死无葬身之地。我们之前写过系列文章，不再赘述。我们去年预测过，Musk号召逼空的MEME stocks和要送上月球的DogeCoin大概率会长期阴跌，跌回起点，甚至变成废纸 —— 如今大部分已经验证。我们看他操纵的DogeCoin，在他喊话前，明显有人在0.036-0.048之间建仓收集筹码，然后他出来喊话，DogeCoin火箭上天冲到0.725，比建仓区升幅达13.5倍，然后长期阴跌，目前0.08，离最高价跌幅近90%，想要解套，需要一波9倍以上的牛市。这是一套标准的，在A股常见的游资坐庄的模式。可惜，天真的韭菜们还给Musk写了不少赞歌。此处摘录两首，第一首，歌手要把DogeCoin送上1USD；第二首，一个绿色能源的拥护者，刚被Robinhood在Elon Musk号召的期权逼空大潮里割韭菜，付不起房租，把仅有的余钱买入Dogecoin，希望Elon Musk送她上天，并给她在登月留一席之地...我是70后，虽然没经历过文革，但多少感受过余孽，所以对日月神教式的洗脑+割韭菜模式天生反感，也敏感。所以去年我们连续撰文，警告Elon Musk的庞氏骗局。Musk 为了个人恩怨，偏见，复仇，鼓动群众，利用他们对贫富差距的不满（他本人就是央行放水的资产泡沫导致贫富差距扩大的最大的受益者，全地球最大，没有之一），利用他们一夜暴富的心理，买庞氏骗局 —— 目的是逼空，而这些空头大多数是做空资产泡沫，做空庞氏骗局的人 —— 完全不顾弱势群体的实际经济利益。”  “大众对Musk的崇拜，是奴性，缺乏独立思考的体现，甚至包含拜金主义在里面 ——  假如他们的股票没有暴涨，公司濒临破产，还会有这么多拥趸吗？... 这个事件，本质就像靠民主投票上台的纳粹煽动德国人屠杀犹太人，是人类的悲哀。尤其希望每个本质善良的普通人，低收入的人，多点独立思考，不要被政客、权谋家、利益集团玩弄。这样一个公众可以信任吗？我并不反对Musk合法赚钱，我只反对众多媒体把他塑造成人类的希望或救星。Musk根本不是什么钢铁侠—— 侠，是代表弱者，挑战暴力、维护公众正义的人。他的事迹大多为了个人私利，割弱小百姓韭菜，离“侠”太远。Tsla股票也许是下一个即将破裂的资产泡沫 (修订版) | 泷韬全球宏观Elon Musk如果当权，对人类将是灾难GME逼空事件的赢家，输家，和政客Chamath Palihapitiya和Elon Musk都是华尔街的既得利益者驳Chamath Palihapitiya在CNBC的发言所谓聪明反被聪明误，不作死不会死。侥幸依赖股市泡沫成为全球首富，躲过2021年成长股下跌的Elon Musk，很可能是下一个Bill Hwang。不过虽然我反感Musk为了个人私利，操纵大众思想的类似纳粹的行为，但假如是民主党给他做局，我们不得不慨叹在Deep 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