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敏敏猪__
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IP属地:广东
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敏敏猪__
02-11
$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$
呵呵,一张图说明,慢就是快…
敏敏猪__
02-06
$TSLA 20250214 352.5 PUT$
我准备每天来逛1次,因为我只有几百块,小赌怡情🤫
敏敏猪__
2023-03-04
$BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$
$BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$
哎
敏敏猪__
2023-02-22
心得分享,趋势出来了再下手,不要赌😷每次就买1手练练,吃得消
敏敏猪__
2023-02-04
我回来了,有点感觉了…
敏敏猪__
2023-02-03
$BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$
$BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$
哎
敏敏猪__
2023-02-03
$TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$
$TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$
[爱你] 给你点赞
敏敏猪__
2023-01-12
$TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$
$TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$
冲啊啊啊啊
敏敏猪__
2023-01-11
$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$
$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$
上月球吧🚀
敏敏猪__
2023-01-11
$BAC 20230120 34.5 PUT$
$BAC 20230120 34.5 PUT$
[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 剁手
敏敏猪__
2023-01-11
$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$
$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$
原来安卓手机可以看那么细的
敏敏猪__
2023-01-11
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
唉,我居然又来了…
敏敏猪__
2022-04-19
$RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL$
所以我对A股没有什么感觉…
敏敏猪__
2022-04-15
他去年卖Costco的时候股价300多,然后涨到600了。
芒格真的卖了阿里?
敏敏猪__
2022-04-04
$RBLX 20220414 48.0 CALL$
冷门股[捂脸]
敏敏猪__
2022-04-04
$SBUX 20220408 88.5 CALL$
发生了什么事[无语]
敏敏猪__
2022-03-31
$SBUX 20220401 88.0 CALL$
哦豁…护盘股?
敏敏猪__
2022-03-29
$FDX 20220520 240.0 CALL$
哦豁…
敏敏猪__
2022-03-25
有一次喝冰沙,里面还有小块的冰…感觉喜茶都比它好喝…不知道用什么材料做的…价格也不便宜…相当于汽车届中规中矩的五菱宏光吧,市场是最大的,但是没什么惊艳…
抱歉,原内容已删除
敏敏猪__
2022-03-24
$OXY 20220401 55.0 PUT$
[笑哭] 冤枉
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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我准备每天来逛1次,因为我只有几百块,小赌怡情🤫","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808ebab42ce942f6f07571e25f13f693","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/400648160440952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627302952,"gmtCreate":1677922262176,"gmtModify":1677923022489,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL\">$BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL\">$BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$ </a> 哎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL\">$BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL\">$BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$ </a> 哎","text":"$BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$ $BABA 20230317 95.0 CALL$ 哎","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b778ed3676173e5dc4f8edcb02686eb","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627302952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624369931,"gmtCreate":1677080282723,"gmtModify":1677080345963,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"心得分享,趋势出来了再下手,不要赌😷每次就买1手练练,吃得消","listText":"心得分享,趋势出来了再下手,不要赌😷每次就买1手练练,吃得消","text":"心得分享,趋势出来了再下手,不要赌😷每次就买1手练练,吃得消","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0903b39857aa2fc1fc049df93684eb","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624369931","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622668377,"gmtCreate":1675445588599,"gmtModify":1675445709840,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我回来了,有点感觉了…","listText":"我回来了,有点感觉了…","text":"我回来了,有点感觉了…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4036ff8590df041b4fc6f240ebd6fc89","width":"990","height":"1337"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622668377","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622889879,"gmtCreate":1675356019591,"gmtModify":1675359490873,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT\">$BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT\">$BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$ </a> 哎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT\">$BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT\">$BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$ </a> 哎","text":"$BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$ $BABA 20230217 100.0 PUT$ 哎","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f161dd8881d225174f4181440ff3d1d","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622889879","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622812796,"gmtCreate":1675354122715,"gmtModify":1675354518249,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$ </a> [爱你] 给你点赞","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$ </a> [爱你] 给你点赞","text":"$TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20230217 220.0 CALL$ [爱你] 给你点赞","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4ea2fde4cf97dc35d4fc6a89364347","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622812796","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628779074,"gmtCreate":1673517532698,"gmtModify":1673518017882,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL\">$TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL\">$TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$ </a> 冲啊啊啊啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL\">$TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL\">$TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$ </a> 冲啊啊啊啊","text":"$TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$ $TSM 20230217 90.0 CALL$ 冲啊啊啊啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc6165eb4391ce09e92669e5b3fa029","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628779074","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628708665,"gmtCreate":1673450705357,"gmtModify":1673451020993,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ </a> 上月球吧🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ </a> 上月球吧🚀","text":"$TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20230127 130.0 CALL$ 上月球吧🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415b708c94380d81c083adb5d8491800","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628708665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569968827736584","authorId":"3569968827736584","name":"我只有100股伯克希尔A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959b635efbd15106fc3d97287be36473","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3569968827736584","idStr":"3569968827736584"},"content":"这种投机客你怎么看,不做价值投资[呆住][呆住][呆住] @陈友谅","text":"这种投机客你怎么看,不做价值投资[呆住][呆住][呆住] @陈友谅","html":"这种投机客你怎么看,不做价值投资[呆住][呆住][呆住] 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>唉,我居然又来了…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>唉,我居然又来了…","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 唉,我居然又来了…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70130c8ff0f3f1f8cb5d4107dc0776d9","width":"2224","height":"1335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628571853","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":611144884,"gmtCreate":1650377412717,"gmtModify":1650377486349,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL\">$RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL$ </a>所以我对A股没有什么感觉…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL\">$RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL$ </a>所以我对A股没有什么感觉…","text":"$RCL 20220429 84.0 CALL$ 所以我对A股没有什么感觉…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2644818f95eb390e2ac677667348be","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611144884","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613705683,"gmtCreate":1650031337851,"gmtModify":1650031337851,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他去年卖Costco的时候股价300多,然后涨到600了。","listText":"他去年卖Costco的时候股价300多,然后涨到600了。","text":"他去年卖Costco的时候股价300多,然后涨到600了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613705683","repostId":"1145962631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145962631","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650029102,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145962631?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-15 21:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"芒格真的卖了阿里?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145962631","media":"e公司","summary":"于是,芒格大幅卖出亏损股、98岁芒格兵败阿里、芒格廉颇老矣尚能饭否,如此这般的标题,立即充斥了资本市场。2021年一季度,芒格主导下的每日期刊公司,首次买入阿里巴巴ADR。在几乎直线的下跌中,每日期刊公司在2021年三季度和四季度加仓了阿里巴巴。随后,在2022年2月的每日期刊公司年会上,芒格夸赞了阿里巴巴公司,说它是合适的投资标的,投资这个公司让他感到舒适。两种可能那么,芒格真的卖了阿里巴巴吗?","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>芒格辞职的时间是3月28日,而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告,显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里,对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说,芒格的继任者有足够的时间,把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性,我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。</b></blockquote><p><b>作为<a class=\"promotion-word\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4180165723785092\">沃伦·巴菲特</a>一生的搭档,出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份,是每日期刊公司(Daily Journal)董事长。从1977年53岁上任,到2022年98岁辞职,芒格在这个职位上忙碌了45年。</b></p><p>作为<a class=\"promotion-word\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4180165723785092\">巴菲特</a>的搭档,芒格的投资方法虽然也是正宗的价值投资,但是在细节上和<a class=\"promotion-word\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4180165723785092\">巴菲特</a>不尽相同。简单来说,芒格的投资风格就是持股更加集中,对估值不是很看重,但对企业长期前景比较关心。这种投资方法,导致投资组合的短期波动更大,同时长期收益率可能也更高。</p><p>由于<a class=\"promotion-word\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4180165723785092\">巴菲特</a>并没有参与每日期刊公司的投资,因此从每日期刊公司的投资头寸上,人们往往能对芒格的股票投资一探究竟。</p><p><b>不过,花有重开日,人物再少年。再好的投资职业生涯,也终究有结束的一天。2022年3月28日,98岁高龄的芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务。</b></p><p><b>然而,就在两周以后的4月11日,市场上爆出了一个大新闻:每日期刊公司在2022年一季度,卖出了50%的阿里巴巴ADR(美国存托凭证)持股,出现大幅亏损。</b></p><p>于是,芒格大幅卖出亏损股、98岁芒格兵败阿里、芒格廉颇老矣尚能饭否,如此这般的标题,立即充斥了资本市场。</p><p><b>但是,芒格真的卖了阿里吗?</b></p><p><b>发生了什么?</b></p><p>2021年一季度,芒格主导下的每日期刊公司,首次买入阿里巴巴ADR。随后,阿里巴巴股价一路下跌,从2021年一季度的250美元附近,一直跌到了2022年一季度的100美元附近。</p><p>在几乎直线的下跌中,每日期刊公司在2021年三季度和四季度加仓了阿里巴巴。随后,在2022年2月的每日期刊公司年会上,芒格夸赞了阿里巴巴公司,说它是合适的投资标的,投资这个公司让他感到舒适。</p><p>但是,到了2022年3月28日,由于某种未公告的原因,芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务,仅继续担任公司董事。到了4月11日,每日期刊公司公告显示,截至2022年3月31日,公司所持有的阿里巴巴ADR,仅有之前持仓的一半。</p><p><b>两种可能</b></p><p>那么,芒格真的卖了阿里巴巴吗?细心的读者会发现,这件事其实有两种可能。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72da4b29cb471c1d0f387e4b471ba5b0\" tg-height=\"521\" tg-width=\"959\"/>供图:赵乃育</p><p>第一种可能,是芒格确实老糊涂了,在股票大幅亏损后就减仓了。我们不能否定这种可能,毕竟智慧的芒格自己就曾经说过,“不要迷信那些优秀的人,再优秀的人都有犯错的时候”。要知道,即使是拿破仑也曾打过败仗。这第一种可能,我们将它称为“芒格犯傻了”。</p><p>但是,在第一种可能之外,还有一种可能,会让我们以为自己看到的“芒格犯傻了”,完全不是事情的真相。</p><p>细心的读者一定已经发现,从以上描述的时间线里,芒格辞职的时间是3月28日,而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告,显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。</p><p><b>在3天的时间里,对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说,芒格的继任者有足够的时间,把仓位砍掉一半。这第二种可能性,我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。</b></p><p>那么,美国市场的流动性,支持这种“3天砍仓一半”的交易吗?根据每日期刊公司披露的数据,其持有的阿里巴巴ADR,在减仓之前最高达到60万份,在2022年一季度末则为30万份,减持了30万份。</p><p>对于3天30万份的减持量,阿里巴巴的ADR交易量能够容纳吗?在2022年一季度,阿里巴巴ADR的日均成交量,是3212万份。而在芒格卸任以后的3个交易日(3月29日到31日),总成交量是8768万份。做过交易的人都知道,对于如此巨大的交易量,想要在3天里减持30万份,易如反掌。所以,“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能性,是完全存在的。</p><p><b>芒格犯傻了?</b></p><p>每日期刊公司为什么减仓阿里巴巴,背后的原因到底是“芒格犯傻了”还是“每日期刊公司变了”,除非有每日期刊公司或者芒格自己的声明,否则这件事也许会永远成为一个难解之谜。</p><p>从主观上,我个人更偏向“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能,因为“芒格犯傻了”不符合常理。我很难相信一位一辈子聪明、目光长远的投资者,居然在如此行事近百年以后,会突然变成一个“2月份还说看好公司、3月份就卖出股票”的人。但是,根据现有的公告,我也没有证据完全否定“芒格犯傻了”的可能性。</p><p>但是,为什么在新闻发生以后,许多人会立即相信“芒格犯傻了”?这里面有两个原因,第一是人们不细致,没有发现芒格辞职日期和公告日期之差(尽管只有3天)。第二个原因,则更加深刻。</p><p><b>对于许多人来说,价值投资所倡导的“目光放长远、不要看短期”的理念,是和他们喜欢投机的爱好相违背的。但是糟糕的是,<a class=\"promotion-word\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4180165723785092\">巴菲特</a>、芒格这些价值投资者不停的赚钱,同时投机又很难带来长期收益。</b></p><p>这时候,聪明的人会放下自己的投机,跟随价值投资的脚步。但是对于那些放纵自己感受的人来说,他们更愿意相信自己的投机是对的、价值投资的理念才是错的。在这时候,“芒格犯傻了”的新闻,恰好迎合了这些人的心理:价值投资的理念不对,我应该继续投机才是正道。可以说,这是一场恰到好处的心理按摩。</p><p><b>看见的就是真的?</b></p><p>每日期刊公司减持阿里巴巴ADR,当这件事被粗心的人们第一眼看到时,他们立即相信自己的判断“芒格犯傻了”,而没有仔细思考另一种可能“每日期刊公司变了”。在这里,人们错误地认为,“我看到的就是真的”。</p><p>但是,看到的并不一定是真的。在中国的资本市场上,我曾经亲身经历过另一次所见并非真相。那次经历,真相比芒格卖阿里更加隐晦:从公开的信息,我们甚至看不到真相存在的可能。</p><p>在2007年大牛市到2008年大熊市的转换中,我认识的一位价值投资者,居然没有在2007年市场极其昂贵的时候,做出太多的减仓操作,以至于在2008年损失惨重。根据公告,他一直是基金的基金经理。那么,2007年牛市的顶点那么贵,上百倍PE的股票比比皆是,作为重视估值的价值投资者,他怎么会不卖呢?</p><p>实际上的情况,比公告显示出来的更加复杂。这位投资者虽然是投资经理,但是他的领导——也就是公司的投资总监和总经理,却喜欢越级指挥他的投资决策。结果,2007年到2008年的交易,其实大多根本不是出自他的本意。</p><p>所以说,在资本市场上,当我们以为自己看清楚了一个事件、一张财务报表、一个公告的时候,一定要长个心眼,问问自己这件事合理吗?如果答案是否定的,那么即使我们自己看到了某件事,也不一定代表我们就看清了事情的真相。</p><p>不过,人毕竟是依靠感官体验世界的,“眼见为实”的思想深深刻在我们的基因里。连中国历史上的圣人孔子,都曾经感叹“看到的事情居然不是真的”。这里,就让我们来看一个《吕氏春秋》中记载的故事。</p><p>有一次,孔子和弟子们在列国之间穿行时,倒霉找不到粮食吃,上顿接不上下顿,七天都没有饭吃。正在这时,孔子弟子中品德第一的颜回,不知道从哪里找来了一点米。大家很开心,颜回就拿着米去做饭。</p><p>结果,颜回一个人忙做饭,饭快熟的时候孔子正好路过,看到颜回从锅里自己捞饭吃。在儒家的礼仪中,这样“自己先吃不管大家”的行为,是非常不道德的。</p><p>按理说,这样的事情不会发生在以品德著称的颜回身上啊?但是,这又是孔子亲眼所见,怎能不真呢?不过,大家毕竟都饿了好多天,也许颜回也守不住自己的道德准绳,先吃为快了?</p><p>等到吃完饭,孔子委婉地问颜回是怎么回事,这才知道事情的真相。原来,颜回煮饭的时候,发现一块煤灰飞到了饭里。把这块沾了灰的饭扔了吧,实在可惜,可是端出来给大家吃吧,又会让人糟心。于是,颜回干脆自己把脏的那块饭拿出来吃掉。没曾想,正好给路过的孔子看见。</p><p>得知事情原由后,孔子大为感叹:“所信者目也,而目犹不可信。所恃者心也,而心犹不足恃。弟子记之:知人固不易矣。”我们眼睛看到的不一定是真的,心里想明白的不一定是对的,我们要牢记,把真相搞明白实在是太难了啊!</p><p>假作真时真亦假,无为有处有还无。作为一代价值投资大师,芒格给人们留下过许许多多睿智的思想。对于这些思想,他经常喜欢说一句总结性的话:“我的剑只留给能挥舞它的人。”</p><p><b>现在,当面对“芒格犯傻了”和“每日期刊公司变了”两个可能的真相时,我亲爱的读者,你是怎样想的呢?究竟哪一种想法,才能让我们挥舞起芒格的剑呢?</b></p></body></html>","source":"LHCJ1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n芒格真的卖了阿里?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-15 21:25 北京时间 <a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SgyrrtKXXnDeioPtpTMGcw\"><strong>e公司</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>芒格辞职的时间是3月28日,而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告,显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里,对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说,芒格的继任者有足够的时间,把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性,我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。作为<a class=\"promotion-word\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4180165723785092\">沃伦·巴菲特</a>一生的搭档,出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份,是每日期刊公司(Daily Journal)董事长。从1977年53岁上任,到2022...</p>\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SgyrrtKXXnDeioPtpTMGcw\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72da4b29cb471c1d0f387e4b471ba5b0","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SgyrrtKXXnDeioPtpTMGcw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145962631","content_text":"芒格辞职的时间是3月28日,而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告,显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里,对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说,芒格的继任者有足够的时间,把仓位砍掉一半。这种可能性,我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。作为沃伦·巴菲特一生的搭档,出生于1924年的查理·芒格的另一个身份,是每日期刊公司(Daily Journal)董事长。从1977年53岁上任,到2022年98岁辞职,芒格在这个职位上忙碌了45年。作为巴菲特的搭档,芒格的投资方法虽然也是正宗的价值投资,但是在细节上和巴菲特不尽相同。简单来说,芒格的投资风格就是持股更加集中,对估值不是很看重,但对企业长期前景比较关心。这种投资方法,导致投资组合的短期波动更大,同时长期收益率可能也更高。由于巴菲特并没有参与每日期刊公司的投资,因此从每日期刊公司的投资头寸上,人们往往能对芒格的股票投资一探究竟。不过,花有重开日,人物再少年。再好的投资职业生涯,也终究有结束的一天。2022年3月28日,98岁高龄的芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务。然而,就在两周以后的4月11日,市场上爆出了一个大新闻:每日期刊公司在2022年一季度,卖出了50%的阿里巴巴ADR(美国存托凭证)持股,出现大幅亏损。于是,芒格大幅卖出亏损股、98岁芒格兵败阿里、芒格廉颇老矣尚能饭否,如此这般的标题,立即充斥了资本市场。但是,芒格真的卖了阿里吗?发生了什么?2021年一季度,芒格主导下的每日期刊公司,首次买入阿里巴巴ADR。随后,阿里巴巴股价一路下跌,从2021年一季度的250美元附近,一直跌到了2022年一季度的100美元附近。在几乎直线的下跌中,每日期刊公司在2021年三季度和四季度加仓了阿里巴巴。随后,在2022年2月的每日期刊公司年会上,芒格夸赞了阿里巴巴公司,说它是合适的投资标的,投资这个公司让他感到舒适。但是,到了2022年3月28日,由于某种未公告的原因,芒格辞去了每日期刊公司董事长职务,仅继续担任公司董事。到了4月11日,每日期刊公司公告显示,截至2022年3月31日,公司所持有的阿里巴巴ADR,仅有之前持仓的一半。两种可能那么,芒格真的卖了阿里巴巴吗?细心的读者会发现,这件事其实有两种可能。供图:赵乃育第一种可能,是芒格确实老糊涂了,在股票大幅亏损后就减仓了。我们不能否定这种可能,毕竟智慧的芒格自己就曾经说过,“不要迷信那些优秀的人,再优秀的人都有犯错的时候”。要知道,即使是拿破仑也曾打过败仗。这第一种可能,我们将它称为“芒格犯傻了”。但是,在第一种可能之外,还有一种可能,会让我们以为自己看到的“芒格犯傻了”,完全不是事情的真相。细心的读者一定已经发现,从以上描述的时间线里,芒格辞职的时间是3月28日,而4月11日每日期刊公司提交的公告,显示的是3月31日的持仓数据。在3天的时间里,对于阿里巴巴这样一只交易非常活跃的ADR来说,芒格的继任者有足够的时间,把仓位砍掉一半。这第二种可能性,我们将它称为“每日期刊公司变了”。那么,美国市场的流动性,支持这种“3天砍仓一半”的交易吗?根据每日期刊公司披露的数据,其持有的阿里巴巴ADR,在减仓之前最高达到60万份,在2022年一季度末则为30万份,减持了30万份。对于3天30万份的减持量,阿里巴巴的ADR交易量能够容纳吗?在2022年一季度,阿里巴巴ADR的日均成交量,是3212万份。而在芒格卸任以后的3个交易日(3月29日到31日),总成交量是8768万份。做过交易的人都知道,对于如此巨大的交易量,想要在3天里减持30万份,易如反掌。所以,“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能性,是完全存在的。芒格犯傻了?每日期刊公司为什么减仓阿里巴巴,背后的原因到底是“芒格犯傻了”还是“每日期刊公司变了”,除非有每日期刊公司或者芒格自己的声明,否则这件事也许会永远成为一个难解之谜。从主观上,我个人更偏向“每日期刊公司变了”这种可能,因为“芒格犯傻了”不符合常理。我很难相信一位一辈子聪明、目光长远的投资者,居然在如此行事近百年以后,会突然变成一个“2月份还说看好公司、3月份就卖出股票”的人。但是,根据现有的公告,我也没有证据完全否定“芒格犯傻了”的可能性。但是,为什么在新闻发生以后,许多人会立即相信“芒格犯傻了”?这里面有两个原因,第一是人们不细致,没有发现芒格辞职日期和公告日期之差(尽管只有3天)。第二个原因,则更加深刻。对于许多人来说,价值投资所倡导的“目光放长远、不要看短期”的理念,是和他们喜欢投机的爱好相违背的。但是糟糕的是,巴菲特、芒格这些价值投资者不停的赚钱,同时投机又很难带来长期收益。这时候,聪明的人会放下自己的投机,跟随价值投资的脚步。但是对于那些放纵自己感受的人来说,他们更愿意相信自己的投机是对的、价值投资的理念才是错的。在这时候,“芒格犯傻了”的新闻,恰好迎合了这些人的心理:价值投资的理念不对,我应该继续投机才是正道。可以说,这是一场恰到好处的心理按摩。看见的就是真的?每日期刊公司减持阿里巴巴ADR,当这件事被粗心的人们第一眼看到时,他们立即相信自己的判断“芒格犯傻了”,而没有仔细思考另一种可能“每日期刊公司变了”。在这里,人们错误地认为,“我看到的就是真的”。但是,看到的并不一定是真的。在中国的资本市场上,我曾经亲身经历过另一次所见并非真相。那次经历,真相比芒格卖阿里更加隐晦:从公开的信息,我们甚至看不到真相存在的可能。在2007年大牛市到2008年大熊市的转换中,我认识的一位价值投资者,居然没有在2007年市场极其昂贵的时候,做出太多的减仓操作,以至于在2008年损失惨重。根据公告,他一直是基金的基金经理。那么,2007年牛市的顶点那么贵,上百倍PE的股票比比皆是,作为重视估值的价值投资者,他怎么会不卖呢?实际上的情况,比公告显示出来的更加复杂。这位投资者虽然是投资经理,但是他的领导——也就是公司的投资总监和总经理,却喜欢越级指挥他的投资决策。结果,2007年到2008年的交易,其实大多根本不是出自他的本意。所以说,在资本市场上,当我们以为自己看清楚了一个事件、一张财务报表、一个公告的时候,一定要长个心眼,问问自己这件事合理吗?如果答案是否定的,那么即使我们自己看到了某件事,也不一定代表我们就看清了事情的真相。不过,人毕竟是依靠感官体验世界的,“眼见为实”的思想深深刻在我们的基因里。连中国历史上的圣人孔子,都曾经感叹“看到的事情居然不是真的”。这里,就让我们来看一个《吕氏春秋》中记载的故事。有一次,孔子和弟子们在列国之间穿行时,倒霉找不到粮食吃,上顿接不上下顿,七天都没有饭吃。正在这时,孔子弟子中品德第一的颜回,不知道从哪里找来了一点米。大家很开心,颜回就拿着米去做饭。结果,颜回一个人忙做饭,饭快熟的时候孔子正好路过,看到颜回从锅里自己捞饭吃。在儒家的礼仪中,这样“自己先吃不管大家”的行为,是非常不道德的。按理说,这样的事情不会发生在以品德著称的颜回身上啊?但是,这又是孔子亲眼所见,怎能不真呢?不过,大家毕竟都饿了好多天,也许颜回也守不住自己的道德准绳,先吃为快了?等到吃完饭,孔子委婉地问颜回是怎么回事,这才知道事情的真相。原来,颜回煮饭的时候,发现一块煤灰飞到了饭里。把这块沾了灰的饭扔了吧,实在可惜,可是端出来给大家吃吧,又会让人糟心。于是,颜回干脆自己把脏的那块饭拿出来吃掉。没曾想,正好给路过的孔子看见。得知事情原由后,孔子大为感叹:“所信者目也,而目犹不可信。所恃者心也,而心犹不足恃。弟子记之:知人固不易矣。”我们眼睛看到的不一定是真的,心里想明白的不一定是对的,我们要牢记,把真相搞明白实在是太难了啊!假作真时真亦假,无为有处有还无。作为一代价值投资大师,芒格给人们留下过许许多多睿智的思想。对于这些思想,他经常喜欢说一句总结性的话:“我的剑只留给能挥舞它的人。”现在,当面对“芒格犯傻了”和“每日期刊公司变了”两个可能的真相时,我亲爱的读者,你是怎样想的呢?究竟哪一种想法,才能让我们挥舞起芒格的剑呢?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619119744,"gmtCreate":1649084082608,"gmtModify":1649084082608,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546454679808505","idStr":"3546454679808505"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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