就是玩的个人主页 - 老虎社区

就是玩

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IP属地：江苏

38关注

1粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2021-09-28

tiger task

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-31

$Chicos Fas Inc(CHS)$what the fk? ER is ok

2021-08-05

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$还得更猛点，我才能回本

2021-07-26

to da moon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-22

$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$站在最高峰

2021-04-14

$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$what a piece of shit!

2021-03-05

$Orbital Energy Group(OEG)$why this shit drops like a rock?

2021-01-21

$晶科能源(JKS)$fcell的来这里吧，砸上去个十个点

2020-12-31

$PLTR 20210108 30.0 CALL(PLTR)$wtf

2020-12-20

$蔚来(NIO)$https://36kr.com/p/1017382148080896

2020-02-25

终于雄起了，蔚来加油

2020-02-18

$有道(DAO)$ 上海教育局规定，3月2号开始在线上课，对于线上教育都是利好

2020-02-12

$有道(DAO)$ pump and dump

2020-01-21

$趣店(QD)$ 有人打算进场了吗？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500成分股本周的表现</i></p>\n<p>周二开始，9月的美联储议息会议如期而至，市场对美联储不会削减购债规模已经有了提前的判断，鲍威尔的观点虽然相对偏鹰派，但因为明确了削减购债规模期间不会加息，多头再一次进入狂欢。</p>\n<p>现在各方面的信息综合来看，今年11月大概率是要开始削减购债规模了，美联储还给了一个明确的结束时间，那就是明年6月。按照鲍威尔的尿性，完成QE之后，估计还要磨蹭个一年半载的，才会开始加息。也就是说，美联储在未来两年，应该不会进入加息周期。</p>\n<p>美联储不加息，那市场就一直是宽松状态，美股自然就涨涨涨。我们早在很久之前的文章里面说过，美联储削减购债规模，并不会让美股暴跌。现在每个月购债1200亿美元，你就是削减到200亿美元，那也是在继续放水。只要市场上的资金和流动性继续泛滥，指望美股暴跌，那无疑于痴人说梦。</p>\n<p>当前的市场不要轻易去做空，但我们确实要注意一件事，那就是板块之间的资金轮动。在上周末的文章，我非常明确的表达了一个观点，那就是「美股有三条腿，软件服务、硬核科技和超级巨头，后面两个其实没什么泡沫，但软件服务尤其是SaaS板块的泡沫已经远超科网泡沫时代」。</p>\n<p>这一周的走势，可以说完美印证了这个判断。相信很多朋友应该已经发现，SaaS板块已经开始明显走弱。如果不是CRM的暴涨，SaaS板块这周的回撤绝对不小，而SaaS板块领涨的龙头已经开始明显弱于大盘，NET单周收跌0.8%、SHOP单周收跌2.85%、TWLO单周收跌2.74%、ADBE单周收跌4.85%、OKTA收跌1.83%。</p>\n<p>一些新上市的SaaS公司，经历了前段时间的无脑暴涨，也在上周五明显出了回落。DOCN收跌5.85%、ASAN收跌3.58%、SQSP收跌4.02%、DOCS收跌2.27%&nbsp;、UPST收跌2.57%………其他我就不一一举例了，可以肯定的一件事，SaaS板块出现了一些微妙的变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0f2b804dc74d0da56e2f06939cdfae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>出现这样的变化，主要是因为美国十年期国债收益率的变化。9月23日，美国十年期国债收益率突然暴涨9.97%，从1.302%上涨到1.434%，30年期美债收益率涨超10.4个基点，也刷新日高至1.9125%。这是美国长期国债收益率自去年3月疫情爆发以来创下近18个月的最大涨幅。</p>\n<p>美债收益率上涨，其实对股市是好事。因为这意味着资金从债市流出，这些资金实际上也没地方去，最终也就只能回到股市，所以能够带动美股进一步上涨，但问题是，美债收益率的上涨，这会对成长股的估值造成较大的冲击。</p>\n<p>我们都知道，因为美国十年期国债是无风险资产，所以收益率就往往决定了全球资产价格的定价。举个简单的例子，假如一家成长股公司的PE是50，这意味着未来50年，每年的年化收益是2%。这个时候，美债收益率如果超过2%，投资者就没必要买这家成长股了。另外美债收益率的上涨，也会影响企业借贷资金的成本，影响利润增长。</p>\n<p>具体美债收益率和成长股估值之间的关系，大家可以去自己进一步深度了解下。现在科技巨头和芯片板块的市盈率差不多平均也就是30多倍，美债收益率除非超过3%，不然这些板块的投资价值还是很大，所以并不会造成太大的波动。</p>\n<p>但问题是SaaS板块，我们知道很多SaaS公司都是按市销率估值的，因为很多公司都是亏损的，没办法按PE估值，这也就造成了SaaS板块的估值远比其他板块高。远的不说，就拿SaaS板块市值第二和第三的两大王者来说吧（第一是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>），ADBE的市盈率是52，CRM的市盈率是115，就这么高的市盈率，竟然还是SaaS板块最便宜的两家公司。</p>\n<p>有个简单的说法，那就是5倍的市销率相当于30倍的PE，很多SaaS公司动辄几十倍的市销率，甚至还有超过50倍的，这意味着该板块有很多公司的实际PE起码超过300了。所以一旦美债收益率持续上涨，SaaS板块的回调必然就会发生。</p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，今年2月份其实已经发生过一次，当时美债收益率飙升到1.6%之后，芯片板块还在不断创新高，FAAMG也没怎么跌，但SaaS板块却出现了相当大的回调，很大程度上就是因为被杀估值了。现在美国十年期国债收益率明显已经突破了关键阻力位，未来几个月的风险绝对不低。</p>\n<p>当前恒大流动性危机的担忧、美联储货币政策的变化等之类的影响，基本告一段落。接下来的美股将要回归基本面，毕竟财报季马上要到了。按照以前的经验来看，美股在10月15日之前都会相对比较安全，因为当前没有什么重要公司的财报，财报没公布之前，市场就主要是炒作财报，短线也没啥什么风险，大家这个时间段可以逢低买入。</p>\n<p>美股的财报季一般是以银行金融板块开始，零售消费股结束，10月25日~30日则是最关键的几天，所有的巨头都会在这个时间段公布三季度财报。有一件事必须要提醒大家，三季度财报季的风险绝对不低。最近几周公布财报的巨头，我们都看到了财报见光死的现象，这其中三家公司最具代表性：ADBE公布财报后暴跌4%、FDX公布财报后暴跌9%、NKE公布财报后暴跌6%，这也给接下来的财报季蒙上了一层阴影。</p>\n<p>ADBE象征着高估值的成长股，在后疫情时代增速放缓之后，进入杀估值的阶段；FDX则是因为人力成本和运输成本的激增，导致利润率的下滑；NKE则因为全球供应链的危机，导致未来的增长前景不明朗；三种不同的增长困境，其实可以代表很多行业，</p>\n<p>美股上市公司或多或少都会面临这三大难题之一。如果你持有的公司，可能面临这三大困境，财报季真正来临时，或许你应该要考虑减仓的事。</p>\n<p>现在美股最大的问题，其实是公司股价都在高位，企业的基本面完全撑不住当前的估值，之所以还能涨，主要是因为美联储政策的强势护盘，市场对公司未来预期定价实在太完美了。ADBE、FDX和NKE的财报实际上都不差，仅仅是因为一些小瑕疵，基本就遭到了投资者的抛售。未来的财报季，除非财报远超预期，否则见光死的现象将会时有发生。</p>\n<p>未来一周，大家要密切关注美债收益率的变化，一旦飙升至1.5%以上，这意味着美股新一轮的板块轮动很可能会发生。资金将从高估值的成长股流向低估值的价值股。杀估值是非常恐怖的一件事，因为这个时间段，企业的基本面越来越好，但股价却在不断往下走，这主要是源于估值逻辑的变化。</p>\n<p>举两个简单的例子，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>从2020年9月至今，季度营收从1500亿元增长到了2200亿元，但股价却是从高位腰斩，这中间并不是因为业绩不好，而是监管政策的不确定性导致估值下杀；ZM在去年10月创下历史新高之后，季度营收从6亿增长至10亿的过程中，但因为增速在后疫情时代放缓，股价也是高位腰斩。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6ea9c20d1747e6a6eed0ae6e48b2e5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>股息贴现率模型公式清楚阐明了股价与实际利率为负相关关系，假设ERP短期不变，则实际无风险利率r（美债实际利率）快速上行将严重打压美股估值，导致市场大幅回调、高波动。</p>\n<p>由于实际无风险利率r（美债实际利率）上行，未来美股的支撑、乃至进一步上涨将需要增长率g的提升或风险溢价ERP再次大幅回落来实现，而显然，价值股的盈利增长将更受益于经济复苏，因而当前价值股投资价值日益凸现，这解释了近期美股市场风格的明显切换。</p>\n<p>所以，我们必须要对杀估值充满警惕，以及要及时应对板块轮动的变化。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>杀估值时代要来了吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n杀估值时代要来了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-26 15:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>在经历了连续两周的诱空之后，本周完美诠释了什么叫逼空行情。</p>\n<p>周一跳空暴跌诱空之后，周二横盘震荡了一下，周三高开高走，周四再次跳空高开。如果从周一的低点算起，道指三天不到的时间暴涨3.5%，这个涨幅确实足够惊人，也给空头坑的够惨。</p>\n<p>市场发生了什么？我们还是来简单复盘下。周一大盘暴跌，这主要是因为市场担心「恒大会演变成下一个雷曼」，进而引发全球流动性危机，正好多头也想收集更多的筹码，于是就顺势让大盘跌破50日均线，造成大回调即将到来的假象，标准的一个诱空行情。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef746a2f83164d0e8d5c10c3d7f99753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500成分股本周的表现</i></p>\n<p>周二开始，9月的美联储议息会议如期而至，市场对美联储不会削减购债规模已经有了提前的判断，鲍威尔的观点虽然相对偏鹰派，但因为明确了削减购债规模期间不会加息，多头再一次进入狂欢。</p>\n<p>现在各方面的信息综合来看，今年11月大概率是要开始削减购债规模了，美联储还给了一个明确的结束时间，那就是明年6月。按照鲍威尔的尿性，完成QE之后，估计还要磨蹭个一年半载的，才会开始加息。也就是说，美联储在未来两年，应该不会进入加息周期。</p>\n<p>美联储不加息，那市场就一直是宽松状态，美股自然就涨涨涨。我们早在很久之前的文章里面说过，美联储削减购债规模，并不会让美股暴跌。现在每个月购债1200亿美元，你就是削减到200亿美元，那也是在继续放水。只要市场上的资金和流动性继续泛滥，指望美股暴跌，那无疑于痴人说梦。</p>\n<p>当前的市场不要轻易去做空，但我们确实要注意一件事，那就是板块之间的资金轮动。在上周末的文章，我非常明确的表达了一个观点，那就是「美股有三条腿，软件服务、硬核科技和超级巨头，后面两个其实没什么泡沫，但软件服务尤其是SaaS板块的泡沫已经远超科网泡沫时代」。</p>\n<p>这一周的走势，可以说完美印证了这个判断。相信很多朋友应该已经发现，SaaS板块已经开始明显走弱。如果不是CRM的暴涨，SaaS板块这周的回撤绝对不小，而SaaS板块领涨的龙头已经开始明显弱于大盘，NET单周收跌0.8%、SHOP单周收跌2.85%、TWLO单周收跌2.74%、ADBE单周收跌4.85%、OKTA收跌1.83%。</p>\n<p>一些新上市的SaaS公司，经历了前段时间的无脑暴涨，也在上周五明显出了回落。DOCN收跌5.85%、ASAN收跌3.58%、SQSP收跌4.02%、DOCS收跌2.27%&nbsp;、UPST收跌2.57%………其他我就不一一举例了，可以肯定的一件事，SaaS板块出现了一些微妙的变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0f2b804dc74d0da56e2f06939cdfae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>出现这样的变化，主要是因为美国十年期国债收益率的变化。9月23日，美国十年期国债收益率突然暴涨9.97%，从1.302%上涨到1.434%，30年期美债收益率涨超10.4个基点，也刷新日高至1.9125%。这是美国长期国债收益率自去年3月疫情爆发以来创下近18个月的最大涨幅。</p>\n<p>美债收益率上涨，其实对股市是好事。因为这意味着资金从债市流出，这些资金实际上也没地方去，最终也就只能回到股市，所以能够带动美股进一步上涨，但问题是，美债收益率的上涨，这会对成长股的估值造成较大的冲击。</p>\n<p>我们都知道，因为美国十年期国债是无风险资产，所以收益率就往往决定了全球资产价格的定价。举个简单的例子，假如一家成长股公司的PE是50，这意味着未来50年，每年的年化收益是2%。这个时候，美债收益率如果超过2%，投资者就没必要买这家成长股了。另外美债收益率的上涨，也会影响企业借贷资金的成本，影响利润增长。</p>\n<p>具体美债收益率和成长股估值之间的关系，大家可以去自己进一步深度了解下。现在科技巨头和芯片板块的市盈率差不多平均也就是30多倍，美债收益率除非超过3%，不然这些板块的投资价值还是很大，所以并不会造成太大的波动。</p>\n<p>但问题是SaaS板块，我们知道很多SaaS公司都是按市销率估值的，因为很多公司都是亏损的，没办法按PE估值，这也就造成了SaaS板块的估值远比其他板块高。远的不说，就拿SaaS板块市值第二和第三的两大王者来说吧（第一是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>），ADBE的市盈率是52，CRM的市盈率是115，就这么高的市盈率，竟然还是SaaS板块最便宜的两家公司。</p>\n<p>有个简单的说法，那就是5倍的市销率相当于30倍的PE，很多SaaS公司动辄几十倍的市销率，甚至还有超过50倍的，这意味着该板块有很多公司的实际PE起码超过300了。所以一旦美债收益率持续上涨，SaaS板块的回调必然就会发生。</p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，今年2月份其实已经发生过一次，当时美债收益率飙升到1.6%之后，芯片板块还在不断创新高，FAAMG也没怎么跌，但SaaS板块却出现了相当大的回调，很大程度上就是因为被杀估值了。现在美国十年期国债收益率明显已经突破了关键阻力位，未来几个月的风险绝对不低。</p>\n<p>当前恒大流动性危机的担忧、美联储货币政策的变化等之类的影响，基本告一段落。接下来的美股将要回归基本面，毕竟财报季马上要到了。按照以前的经验来看，美股在10月15日之前都会相对比较安全，因为当前没有什么重要公司的财报，财报没公布之前，市场就主要是炒作财报，短线也没啥什么风险，大家这个时间段可以逢低买入。</p>\n<p>美股的财报季一般是以银行金融板块开始，零售消费股结束，10月25日~30日则是最关键的几天，所有的巨头都会在这个时间段公布三季度财报。有一件事必须要提醒大家，三季度财报季的风险绝对不低。最近几周公布财报的巨头，我们都看到了财报见光死的现象，这其中三家公司最具代表性：ADBE公布财报后暴跌4%、FDX公布财报后暴跌9%、NKE公布财报后暴跌6%，这也给接下来的财报季蒙上了一层阴影。</p>\n<p>ADBE象征着高估值的成长股，在后疫情时代增速放缓之后，进入杀估值的阶段；FDX则是因为人力成本和运输成本的激增，导致利润率的下滑；NKE则因为全球供应链的危机，导致未来的增长前景不明朗；三种不同的增长困境，其实可以代表很多行业，</p>\n<p>美股上市公司或多或少都会面临这三大难题之一。如果你持有的公司，可能面临这三大困境，财报季真正来临时，或许你应该要考虑减仓的事。</p>\n<p>现在美股最大的问题，其实是公司股价都在高位，企业的基本面完全撑不住当前的估值，之所以还能涨，主要是因为美联储政策的强势护盘，市场对公司未来预期定价实在太完美了。ADBE、FDX和NKE的财报实际上都不差，仅仅是因为一些小瑕疵，基本就遭到了投资者的抛售。未来的财报季，除非财报远超预期，否则见光死的现象将会时有发生。</p>\n<p>未来一周，大家要密切关注美债收益率的变化，一旦飙升至1.5%以上，这意味着美股新一轮的板块轮动很可能会发生。资金将从高估值的成长股流向低估值的价值股。杀估值是非常恐怖的一件事，因为这个时间段，企业的基本面越来越好，但股价却在不断往下走，这主要是源于估值逻辑的变化。</p>\n<p>举两个简单的例子，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>从2020年9月至今，季度营收从1500亿元增长到了2200亿元，但股价却是从高位腰斩，这中间并不是因为业绩不好，而是监管政策的不确定性导致估值下杀；ZM在去年10月创下历史新高之后，季度营收从6亿增长至10亿的过程中，但因为增速在后疫情时代放缓，股价也是高位腰斩。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6ea9c20d1747e6a6eed0ae6e48b2e5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>股息贴现率模型公式清楚阐明了股价与实际利率为负相关关系，假设ERP短期不变，则实际无风险利率r（美债实际利率）快速上行将严重打压美股估值，导致市场大幅回调、高波动。</p>\n<p>由于实际无风险利率r（美债实际利率）上行，未来美股的支撑、乃至进一步上涨将需要增长率g的提升或风险溢价ERP再次大幅回落来实现，而显然，价值股的盈利增长将更受益于经济复苏，因而当前价值股投资价值日益凸现，这解释了近期美股市场风格的明显切换。</p>\n<p>所以，我们必须要对杀估值充满警惕，以及要及时应对板块轮动的变化。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe5c83d507d4527904ec6d5c693d8ed","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170617845","content_text":"在经历了连续两周的诱空之后，本周完美诠释了什么叫逼空行情。\n周一跳空暴跌诱空之后，周二横盘震荡了一下，周三高开高走，周四再次跳空高开。如果从周一的低点算起，道指三天不到的时间暴涨3.5%，这个涨幅确实足够惊人，也给空头坑的够惨。\n市场发生了什么？我们还是来简单复盘下。周一大盘暴跌，这主要是因为市场担心「恒大会演变成下一个雷曼」，进而引发全球流动性危机，正好多头也想收集更多的筹码，于是就顺势让大盘跌破50日均线，造成大回调即将到来的假象，标准的一个诱空行情。\n\n标普500成分股本周的表现\n周二开始，9月的美联储议息会议如期而至，市场对美联储不会削减购债规模已经有了提前的判断，鲍威尔的观点虽然相对偏鹰派，但因为明确了削减购债规模期间不会加息，多头再一次进入狂欢。\n现在各方面的信息综合来看，今年11月大概率是要开始削减购债规模了，美联储还给了一个明确的结束时间，那就是明年6月。按照鲍威尔的尿性，完成QE之后，估计还要磨蹭个一年半载的，才会开始加息。也就是说，美联储在未来两年，应该不会进入加息周期。\n美联储不加息，那市场就一直是宽松状态，美股自然就涨涨涨。我们早在很久之前的文章里面说过，美联储削减购债规模，并不会让美股暴跌。现在每个月购债1200亿美元，你就是削减到200亿美元，那也是在继续放水。只要市场上的资金和流动性继续泛滥，指望美股暴跌，那无疑于痴人说梦。\n当前的市场不要轻易去做空，但我们确实要注意一件事，那就是板块之间的资金轮动。在上周末的文章，我非常明确的表达了一个观点，那就是「美股有三条腿，软件服务、硬核科技和超级巨头，后面两个其实没什么泡沫，但软件服务尤其是SaaS板块的泡沫已经远超科网泡沫时代」。\n这一周的走势，可以说完美印证了这个判断。相信很多朋友应该已经发现，SaaS板块已经开始明显走弱。如果不是CRM的暴涨，SaaS板块这周的回撤绝对不小，而SaaS板块领涨的龙头已经开始明显弱于大盘，NET单周收跌0.8%、SHOP单周收跌2.85%、TWLO单周收跌2.74%、ADBE单周收跌4.85%、OKTA收跌1.83%。\n一些新上市的SaaS公司，经历了前段时间的无脑暴涨，也在上周五明显出了回落。DOCN收跌5.85%、ASAN收跌3.58%、SQSP收跌4.02%、DOCS收跌2.27% 、UPST收跌2.57%………其他我就不一一举例了，可以肯定的一件事，SaaS板块出现了一些微妙的变化。\n\n出现这样的变化，主要是因为美国十年期国债收益率的变化。9月23日，美国十年期国债收益率突然暴涨9.97%，从1.302%上涨到1.434%，30年期美债收益率涨超10.4个基点，也刷新日高至1.9125%。这是美国长期国债收益率自去年3月疫情爆发以来创下近18个月的最大涨幅。\n美债收益率上涨，其实对股市是好事。因为这意味着资金从债市流出，这些资金实际上也没地方去，最终也就只能回到股市，所以能够带动美股进一步上涨，但问题是，美债收益率的上涨，这会对成长股的估值造成较大的冲击。\n我们都知道，因为美国十年期国债是无风险资产，所以收益率就往往决定了全球资产价格的定价。举个简单的例子，假如一家成长股公司的PE是50，这意味着未来50年，每年的年化收益是2%。这个时候，美债收益率如果超过2%，投资者就没必要买这家成长股了。另外美债收益率的上涨，也会影响企业借贷资金的成本，影响利润增长。\n具体美债收益率和成长股估值之间的关系，大家可以去自己进一步深度了解下。现在科技巨头和芯片板块的市盈率差不多平均也就是30多倍，美债收益率除非超过3%，不然这些板块的投资价值还是很大，所以并不会造成太大的波动。\n但问题是SaaS板块，我们知道很多SaaS公司都是按市销率估值的，因为很多公司都是亏损的，没办法按PE估值，这也就造成了SaaS板块的估值远比其他板块高。远的不说，就拿SaaS板块市值第二和第三的两大王者来说吧（第一是微软），ADBE的市盈率是52，CRM的市盈率是115，就这么高的市盈率，竟然还是SaaS板块最便宜的两家公司。\n有个简单的说法，那就是5倍的市销率相当于30倍的PE，很多SaaS公司动辄几十倍的市销率，甚至还有超过50倍的，这意味着该板块有很多公司的实际PE起码超过300了。所以一旦美债收益率持续上涨，SaaS板块的回调必然就会发生。\n历史是最好的老师，今年2月份其实已经发生过一次，当时美债收益率飙升到1.6%之后，芯片板块还在不断创新高，FAAMG也没怎么跌，但SaaS板块却出现了相当大的回调，很大程度上就是因为被杀估值了。现在美国十年期国债收益率明显已经突破了关键阻力位，未来几个月的风险绝对不低。\n当前恒大流动性危机的担忧、美联储货币政策的变化等之类的影响，基本告一段落。接下来的美股将要回归基本面，毕竟财报季马上要到了。按照以前的经验来看，美股在10月15日之前都会相对比较安全，因为当前没有什么重要公司的财报，财报没公布之前，市场就主要是炒作财报，短线也没啥什么风险，大家这个时间段可以逢低买入。\n美股的财报季一般是以银行金融板块开始，零售消费股结束，10月25日~30日则是最关键的几天，所有的巨头都会在这个时间段公布三季度财报。有一件事必须要提醒大家，三季度财报季的风险绝对不低。最近几周公布财报的巨头，我们都看到了财报见光死的现象，这其中三家公司最具代表性：ADBE公布财报后暴跌4%、FDX公布财报后暴跌9%、NKE公布财报后暴跌6%，这也给接下来的财报季蒙上了一层阴影。\nADBE象征着高估值的成长股，在后疫情时代增速放缓之后，进入杀估值的阶段；FDX则是因为人力成本和运输成本的激增，导致利润率的下滑；NKE则因为全球供应链的危机，导致未来的增长前景不明朗；三种不同的增长困境，其实可以代表很多行业，\n美股上市公司或多或少都会面临这三大难题之一。如果你持有的公司，可能面临这三大困境，财报季真正来临时，或许你应该要考虑减仓的事。\n现在美股最大的问题，其实是公司股价都在高位，企业的基本面完全撑不住当前的估值，之所以还能涨，主要是因为美联储政策的强势护盘，市场对公司未来预期定价实在太完美了。ADBE、FDX和NKE的财报实际上都不差，仅仅是因为一些小瑕疵，基本就遭到了投资者的抛售。未来的财报季，除非财报远超预期，否则见光死的现象将会时有发生。\n未来一周，大家要密切关注美债收益率的变化，一旦飙升至1.5%以上，这意味着美股新一轮的板块轮动很可能会发生。资金将从高估值的成长股流向低估值的价值股。杀估值是非常恐怖的一件事，因为这个时间段，企业的基本面越来越好，但股价却在不断往下走，这主要是源于估值逻辑的变化。\n举两个简单的例子，阿里巴巴从2020年9月至今，季度营收从1500亿元增长到了2200亿元，但股价却是从高位腰斩，这中间并不是因为业绩不好，而是监管政策的不确定性导致估值下杀；ZM在去年10月创下历史新高之后，季度营收从6亿增长至10亿的过程中，但因为增速在后疫情时代放缓，股价也是高位腰斩。\n\n股息贴现率模型公式清楚阐明了股价与实际利率为负相关关系，假设ERP短期不变，则实际无风险利率r（美债实际利率）快速上行将严重打压美股估值，导致市场大幅回调、高波动。\n由于实际无风险利率r（美债实际利率）上行，未来美股的支撑、乃至进一步上涨将需要增长率g的提升或风险溢价ERP再次大幅回落来实现，而显然，价值股的盈利增长将更受益于经济复苏，因而当前价值股投资价值日益凸现，这解释了近期美股市场风格的明显切换。\n所以，我们必须要对杀估值充满警惕，以及要及时应对板块轮动的变化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818505035,"gmtCreate":1630417684627,"gmtModify":1630417684627,"author":{"id":"3542276254143323","authorId":"3542276254143323","name":"就是玩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542276254143323","authorIdStr":"3542276254143323"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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