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拼得到
爱迪生发明了电灯,毒多多发现了黑马戴白口罩……
IP属地:辽宁
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拼得到
09-18
降息25个基点,有可能是50个基点
拼得到
09-06
马斯克又发表了激动人心的演讲,但愿股价也能一样高飞。
拼得到
08-21
快点买进快手,短视频时代的头部公司,还在成长期
拼得到
06-22
老虎十年 一直向钱
@小虎活动:【老虎十周年】截图挑战,评论区留言赢周边
拼得到
01-11
新年有新高
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
拼得到
2023-12-11
$美团-W(03690)$
人工智能时代赢家通吃,抖音外卖对美团釜底抽薪,看空美团。
拼得到
2023-12-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
沪指再破3000点!头部券商最新研判来了:2024年A股有望进入小牛市!看好这些板块
拼得到
2023-11-18
$微软(MSFT)$
逢高了结
拼得到
2023-11-15
市场连续下跌后,美联储再加息概率降低,有可能开始降息。双方领导会务,市场多头意愿增强,市场有望继续上涨。
拼得到
2023-07-13
$SP500指数主连 2309(ESmain)$
拼得到
2023-01-13
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
拼得到
2022-11-09
$亚朵(ATAT)$
亚朵,反弹新星
拼得到
2022-08-09
$大健云仓(GCT)$
大健云仓,快快建仓
拼得到
2021-03-09
市值 轻仓 清零 反手
拼得到
2021-03-06
仓位 永远半仓清零 仓轻,才能轻松反手反手 新高新低 反手,看市值市值 轻仓好清零 看市值反手 任何时候
拼得到
2021-03-06
随意 人工缺陷 仓重就不好 清零 反手。
拼得到
2021-03-06
55倍的换手 仓位 清零 反手
拼得到
2021-02-26
板块全空,明确突破盘后大跌是什么意思,想多了……主观下跌行情清晰,3月月线收阴天客观清零 仓位 市值
拼得到
2021-02-26
道指新高导致,改变空单计划但开盘第九城市并未上涨(还是该空)
拼得到
2021-02-25
游戏驿站 金钱永不眠。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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一直向钱","listText":"老虎十年 一直向钱","text":"老虎十年 一直向钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319445398118592","repostId":"319216670621768","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":319216670621768,"gmtCreate":1718943021104,"gmtModify":1719007620482,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎十周年】截图挑战,评论区留言赢周边","htmlText":"高手过招,以快制胜⚡️老虎十周年之际,小虎君特别为大家准备了一份惊喜大礼🎁!参与我们的“截图挑战”活动,只需动动手指,就有机会获得丰富奖品。快来试试你的手气吧!【参与方式】将下方GIF截图,并将截图发送到评论区,并留言说明你抽到了什么。转发本帖,并<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545976878499478\">@你的朋友</a> 一起参与活动【活动时间】2024年6月21日 - 2024年6月27日【活动奖励】凡是参与活动的虎友均可获得10虎币随机抽10个幸运虎友赠送截图对应的礼物 <a 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$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7359b0bb440a71e47541aaf845c2d0f3","width":"1080","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319216670621768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261741497241896,"gmtCreate":1704928474775,"gmtModify":1704928475799,"author":{"id":"3541322504070277","authorId":"3541322504070277","name":"拼得到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3831de159c47271f42ec57acf96487","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541322504070277","authorIdStr":"3541322504070277"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"新年有新高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"新年有新高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"新年有新高$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261741497241896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":250931669254304,"gmtCreate":1702270836752,"gmtModify":1702270838058,"author":{"id":"3541322504070277","authorId":"3541322504070277","name":"拼得到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3831de159c47271f42ec57acf96487","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541322504070277","authorIdStr":"3541322504070277"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>人工智能时代赢家通吃,抖音外卖对美团釜底抽薪,看空美团。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ 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人工智能时代赢家通吃,抖音外卖对美团釜底抽薪,看空美团。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250931669254304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":248884348969008,"gmtCreate":1701793554613,"gmtModify":1701793555944,"author":{"id":"3541322504070277","authorId":"3541322504070277","name":"拼得到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3831de159c47271f42ec57acf96487","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541322504070277","authorIdStr":"3541322504070277"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/248884348969008","repostId":"1184591821","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184591821","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯,最专业的解读分析,覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1701771971,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184591821?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-05 18:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"沪指再破3000点!头部券商最新研判来了:2024年A股有望进入小牛市!看好这些板块","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184591821","media":"券商中国","summary":"12月5日,中信建投证券2024年度资本市场峰会在上海举办。这将推动2024年A股盈利正增长。预计2024年还将继续降准降息对于2024年中国经济发展趋势,黄文涛指出,2024年GDP有望实现5%左右。2024年A股有望进入小牛市陈果在演讲中指出,当前A股的位置具备熊转牛的基础。以当前时点来看,A股未来下跌风险有限,但尚未进入上涨右侧行情。“我们认为2024年A股有望呈现小牛市,主要源自两大因素改善。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>沪指再破3000点,头部券商最新研判来了。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12月5日,中信建投证券2024年度资本市场峰会在上海举办。中信建投证券首席经济学家、研究发展部联席负责人、宏观首席分析师黄文涛和策略首席分析师陈果分别就2024年宏观经济和A股市场进行了展望。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>宏观方面,中信建投认为,2024年中国经济动能进一步转换,补库存和利润回升是积极变化,全年有望实现5%左右的GDP增速。A股面临的基本面、政策面环境边际改善,可以更加乐观。市场方面,陈果分析,2024年A股有望由熊转牛,进入小牛市,主要源自两大因素改善,一是全球宏观流动性明显改善,二是国内稳增长力度或将超预期。这将推动2024年A股盈利正增长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今日,A股市场震荡走低,上证指数盘中反复拉锯,失守3000点整数关口。上证指数下跌1.67%,报2972.30点;深证成指下跌1.97%,报9470.36点,创业板指下跌1.98%,报1871.10点。从资金面看,沪深两市成交额8225亿元。</p><p><strong>预计2024年还将继续降准降息</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于2024年中国经济发展趋势,黄文涛指出,2024年GDP有望实现5%左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体来看,预计2024年稳增长动力提升,内外形势演变驱动稳增长政策加码,基建、地产投资也将改善。企业需求回暖,价格周期改善,连续五个季度利润负增长周期结束,利润有望走出波动中上行趋势,带动制造业投资回升;居民就业经营改善,疤痕效应渐弱,消费有望继续修复。全球制造业和商品贸易周期触底,“一带一路”贸易规模不断扩大,出口有望边际回暖。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在海外市场,黄文涛认为,美欧货币政策先后边际转向,加息进程迎来尾声。美国经济不衰退依然是基准假设,美债利率见顶,美元或有回落空间,人民币贬值压力缓解。中美关系短期边际向好,全球贸易出现复苏迹象,有望推动中国出口触底回升。全球产业链供应链格局调整带来新机遇与挑战。贸易和投资环境持续优化,推动对外开放再上新台阶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“从稳增长的角度出发,经济复苏的动能尚未稳固之前,财政稳增长的举措就不会退场。从防风险的角度考虑,预计财政会就一揽子化债方案的实施策略和中长期规划给出较为明确的指示。”谈及2024年的宏观政策时,黄文涛表示,货币端,央行短期面临外部紧缩和内部增长的平衡,长期又要兼顾疏通货币传导机制与防范金融风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们认为,‘货币空转’和外部紧缩对于货币政策的制约都在减弱,预计2024年还将继续降准降息,幅度可能与2023年类似,即降准50BP、降息20BP左右,并带动存款利率调降。”他表示。</p><p><strong>2024年A股有望进入小牛市</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈果在演讲中指出,当前A股的位置具备熊转牛的基础。2023年,虽有年初市场大幅反弹,“中特估”崛起和科技成长主题的轮番表现,但A股总体表现弱势,仍未结束2022年开启的熊市行情。以当前时点来看,A股未来下跌风险有限,但尚未进入上涨右侧行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们认为2024年A股有望呈现小牛市,主要源自两大因素改善。”陈果进一步指出,一是全球宏观流动性明显改善,2023年,中国“紧财政、宽货币”,美国“宽财政、紧货币”。2024年,美国财政发力受限,经济下行压力加大、预计美元进入下行周期,对A股估值环境转为有利。二是国内稳增长力度或将超预期。这将推动2024年A股盈利正增长,估值修复。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“为了弥补社会总需求缺口,避免经济持续低迷,政策正在走向宽财政,核心是中央政府加杠杆、地方政府债务化解、城中村改造,我们预计宽财政将与宽货币形成配合,扭转市场对于经济和市场的悲观预期。”陈果说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于2024年北向资金流向趋势,陈果预计,前期北向资金持续单边净流入的流动性条件可能难以继续维系,在当前体量下未来北向资金流入斜率或降低、双向波动或加大;另一方面,随着全球金融条件改善,北向资金也存在回流机会。但随着A股市场和国内机构投资者的发展,北向资金的话语权已经不如往昔,2019年一季度外资持股市值一度达到公募基金的87%,而2023年二季度已经回落至60%,市场也应理性看待北向资金的行为,避免过度恐慌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体到投资方向上,陈果建议,在熊牛转换期的策略思路需逐步由守转攻,配置可考虑看涨期权思维。2024年投资可参考三条线索:一是胜率方向,2024年景气向上行业增加,分子弹性关注产业周期,比如智能驾驶、AI、数据,以及困境改善的医药和农林牧渔行业;二是赔率角度,顺周期悲观一致预期下存在估值修复机会,待政策及资金春风催化,关注国企地产、铜铝等有色、消费建材、保险;三是看涨期权思维,即关注股息+复苏,如煤炭、白酒等板块,资产配置上可关注可转债。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在提及当前市场关注的数字经济投资机遇时,陈果指出,泛AI主题投资后续仍有望继续演绎,进入去伪存真阶段;同时,数字经济新时代推动生产要素扩容。新型工业化加速落地,人形机器人等自动化高新设备为先导。建议投资者重点关注AI、出海、进口替代、汽车智能化、机器人等主题。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沪指再破3000点!头部券商最新研判来了:2024年A股有望进入小牛市!看好这些板块</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n沪指再破3000点!头部券商最新研判来了:2024年A股有望进入小牛市!看好这些板块\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-12-05 18:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>沪指再破3000点,头部券商最新研判来了。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12月5日,中信建投证券2024年度资本市场峰会在上海举办。中信建投证券首席经济学家、研究发展部联席负责人、宏观首席分析师黄文涛和策略首席分析师陈果分别就2024年宏观经济和A股市场进行了展望。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>宏观方面,中信建投认为,2024年中国经济动能进一步转换,补库存和利润回升是积极变化,全年有望实现5%左右的GDP增速。A股面临的基本面、政策面环境边际改善,可以更加乐观。市场方面,陈果分析,2024年A股有望由熊转牛,进入小牛市,主要源自两大因素改善,一是全球宏观流动性明显改善,二是国内稳增长力度或将超预期。这将推动2024年A股盈利正增长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今日,A股市场震荡走低,上证指数盘中反复拉锯,失守3000点整数关口。上证指数下跌1.67%,报2972.30点;深证成指下跌1.97%,报9470.36点,创业板指下跌1.98%,报1871.10点。从资金面看,沪深两市成交额8225亿元。</p><p><strong>预计2024年还将继续降准降息</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于2024年中国经济发展趋势,黄文涛指出,2024年GDP有望实现5%左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体来看,预计2024年稳增长动力提升,内外形势演变驱动稳增长政策加码,基建、地产投资也将改善。企业需求回暖,价格周期改善,连续五个季度利润负增长周期结束,利润有望走出波动中上行趋势,带动制造业投资回升;居民就业经营改善,疤痕效应渐弱,消费有望继续修复。全球制造业和商品贸易周期触底,“一带一路”贸易规模不断扩大,出口有望边际回暖。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在海外市场,黄文涛认为,美欧货币政策先后边际转向,加息进程迎来尾声。美国经济不衰退依然是基准假设,美债利率见顶,美元或有回落空间,人民币贬值压力缓解。中美关系短期边际向好,全球贸易出现复苏迹象,有望推动中国出口触底回升。全球产业链供应链格局调整带来新机遇与挑战。贸易和投资环境持续优化,推动对外开放再上新台阶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“从稳增长的角度出发,经济复苏的动能尚未稳固之前,财政稳增长的举措就不会退场。从防风险的角度考虑,预计财政会就一揽子化债方案的实施策略和中长期规划给出较为明确的指示。”谈及2024年的宏观政策时,黄文涛表示,货币端,央行短期面临外部紧缩和内部增长的平衡,长期又要兼顾疏通货币传导机制与防范金融风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们认为,‘货币空转’和外部紧缩对于货币政策的制约都在减弱,预计2024年还将继续降准降息,幅度可能与2023年类似,即降准50BP、降息20BP左右,并带动存款利率调降。”他表示。</p><p><strong>2024年A股有望进入小牛市</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">陈果在演讲中指出,当前A股的位置具备熊转牛的基础。2023年,虽有年初市场大幅反弹,“中特估”崛起和科技成长主题的轮番表现,但A股总体表现弱势,仍未结束2022年开启的熊市行情。以当前时点来看,A股未来下跌风险有限,但尚未进入上涨右侧行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们认为2024年A股有望呈现小牛市,主要源自两大因素改善。”陈果进一步指出,一是全球宏观流动性明显改善,2023年,中国“紧财政、宽货币”,美国“宽财政、紧货币”。2024年,美国财政发力受限,经济下行压力加大、预计美元进入下行周期,对A股估值环境转为有利。二是国内稳增长力度或将超预期。这将推动2024年A股盈利正增长,估值修复。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“为了弥补社会总需求缺口,避免经济持续低迷,政策正在走向宽财政,核心是中央政府加杠杆、地方政府债务化解、城中村改造,我们预计宽财政将与宽货币形成配合,扭转市场对于经济和市场的悲观预期。”陈果说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于2024年北向资金流向趋势,陈果预计,前期北向资金持续单边净流入的流动性条件可能难以继续维系,在当前体量下未来北向资金流入斜率或降低、双向波动或加大;另一方面,随着全球金融条件改善,北向资金也存在回流机会。但随着A股市场和国内机构投资者的发展,北向资金的话语权已经不如往昔,2019年一季度外资持股市值一度达到公募基金的87%,而2023年二季度已经回落至60%,市场也应理性看待北向资金的行为,避免过度恐慌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体到投资方向上,陈果建议,在熊牛转换期的策略思路需逐步由守转攻,配置可考虑看涨期权思维。2024年投资可参考三条线索:一是胜率方向,2024年景气向上行业增加,分子弹性关注产业周期,比如智能驾驶、AI、数据,以及困境改善的医药和农林牧渔行业;二是赔率角度,顺周期悲观一致预期下存在估值修复机会,待政策及资金春风催化,关注国企地产、铜铝等有色、消费建材、保险;三是看涨期权思维,即关注股息+复苏,如煤炭、白酒等板块,资产配置上可关注可转债。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在提及当前市场关注的数字经济投资机遇时,陈果指出,泛AI主题投资后续仍有望继续演绎,进入去伪存真阶段;同时,数字经济新时代推动生产要素扩容。新型工业化加速落地,人形机器人等自动化高新设备为先导。建议投资者重点关注AI、出海、进口替代、汽车智能化、机器人等主题。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3f4d011b92c8bf19deba89138522fb","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184591821","content_text":"沪指再破3000点,头部券商最新研判来了。12月5日,中信建投证券2024年度资本市场峰会在上海举办。中信建投证券首席经济学家、研究发展部联席负责人、宏观首席分析师黄文涛和策略首席分析师陈果分别就2024年宏观经济和A股市场进行了展望。宏观方面,中信建投认为,2024年中国经济动能进一步转换,补库存和利润回升是积极变化,全年有望实现5%左右的GDP增速。A股面临的基本面、政策面环境边际改善,可以更加乐观。市场方面,陈果分析,2024年A股有望由熊转牛,进入小牛市,主要源自两大因素改善,一是全球宏观流动性明显改善,二是国内稳增长力度或将超预期。这将推动2024年A股盈利正增长。今日,A股市场震荡走低,上证指数盘中反复拉锯,失守3000点整数关口。上证指数下跌1.67%,报2972.30点;深证成指下跌1.97%,报9470.36点,创业板指下跌1.98%,报1871.10点。从资金面看,沪深两市成交额8225亿元。预计2024年还将继续降准降息对于2024年中国经济发展趋势,黄文涛指出,2024年GDP有望实现5%左右。具体来看,预计2024年稳增长动力提升,内外形势演变驱动稳增长政策加码,基建、地产投资也将改善。企业需求回暖,价格周期改善,连续五个季度利润负增长周期结束,利润有望走出波动中上行趋势,带动制造业投资回升;居民就业经营改善,疤痕效应渐弱,消费有望继续修复。全球制造业和商品贸易周期触底,“一带一路”贸易规模不断扩大,出口有望边际回暖。在海外市场,黄文涛认为,美欧货币政策先后边际转向,加息进程迎来尾声。美国经济不衰退依然是基准假设,美债利率见顶,美元或有回落空间,人民币贬值压力缓解。中美关系短期边际向好,全球贸易出现复苏迹象,有望推动中国出口触底回升。全球产业链供应链格局调整带来新机遇与挑战。贸易和投资环境持续优化,推动对外开放再上新台阶。“从稳增长的角度出发,经济复苏的动能尚未稳固之前,财政稳增长的举措就不会退场。从防风险的角度考虑,预计财政会就一揽子化债方案的实施策略和中长期规划给出较为明确的指示。”谈及2024年的宏观政策时,黄文涛表示,货币端,央行短期面临外部紧缩和内部增长的平衡,长期又要兼顾疏通货币传导机制与防范金融风险。“我们认为,‘货币空转’和外部紧缩对于货币政策的制约都在减弱,预计2024年还将继续降准降息,幅度可能与2023年类似,即降准50BP、降息20BP左右,并带动存款利率调降。”他表示。2024年A股有望进入小牛市陈果在演讲中指出,当前A股的位置具备熊转牛的基础。2023年,虽有年初市场大幅反弹,“中特估”崛起和科技成长主题的轮番表现,但A股总体表现弱势,仍未结束2022年开启的熊市行情。以当前时点来看,A股未来下跌风险有限,但尚未进入上涨右侧行情。“我们认为2024年A股有望呈现小牛市,主要源自两大因素改善。”陈果进一步指出,一是全球宏观流动性明显改善,2023年,中国“紧财政、宽货币”,美国“宽财政、紧货币”。2024年,美国财政发力受限,经济下行压力加大、预计美元进入下行周期,对A股估值环境转为有利。二是国内稳增长力度或将超预期。这将推动2024年A股盈利正增长,估值修复。“为了弥补社会总需求缺口,避免经济持续低迷,政策正在走向宽财政,核心是中央政府加杠杆、地方政府债务化解、城中村改造,我们预计宽财政将与宽货币形成配合,扭转市场对于经济和市场的悲观预期。”陈果说。对于2024年北向资金流向趋势,陈果预计,前期北向资金持续单边净流入的流动性条件可能难以继续维系,在当前体量下未来北向资金流入斜率或降低、双向波动或加大;另一方面,随着全球金融条件改善,北向资金也存在回流机会。但随着A股市场和国内机构投资者的发展,北向资金的话语权已经不如往昔,2019年一季度外资持股市值一度达到公募基金的87%,而2023年二季度已经回落至60%,市场也应理性看待北向资金的行为,避免过度恐慌。具体到投资方向上,陈果建议,在熊牛转换期的策略思路需逐步由守转攻,配置可考虑看涨期权思维。2024年投资可参考三条线索:一是胜率方向,2024年景气向上行业增加,分子弹性关注产业周期,比如智能驾驶、AI、数据,以及困境改善的医药和农林牧渔行业;二是赔率角度,顺周期悲观一致预期下存在估值修复机会,待政策及资金春风催化,关注国企地产、铜铝等有色、消费建材、保险;三是看涨期权思维,即关注股息+复苏,如煤炭、白酒等板块,资产配置上可关注可转债。在提及当前市场关注的数字经济投资机遇时,陈果指出,泛AI主题投资后续仍有望继续演绎,进入去伪存真阶段;同时,数字经济新时代推动生产要素扩容。新型工业化加速落地,人形机器人等自动化高新设备为先导。建议投资者重点关注AI、出海、进口替代、汽车智能化、机器人等主题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":242642683203888,"gmtCreate":1700260225189,"gmtModify":1700260226180,"author":{"id":"3541322504070277","authorId":"3541322504070277","name":"拼得到","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f3831de159c47271f42ec57acf96487","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541322504070277","authorIdStr":"3541322504070277"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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