啥啥分不清楚的个人主页 - 老虎社区

啥啥分不清楚

啥啥分不清楚

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啥啥分不清楚

01-23

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 顶住压力，这场不见硝烟的战争！

啥啥分不清楚

01-16

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 对比茅台，腾讯值1800

啥啥分不清楚

2023-12-27

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 天赐良机

啥啥分不清楚

2023-08-30

$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 不看好了，低生育率背景，不是生不出是不生的人变多

啥啥分不清楚

2023-08-28

$VinFast Auto(VFS)$ 越南许家印，他早晚会爆，但是没人知道是什么时候

啥啥分不清楚

2023-08-07

$贝壳(BEKE)$ 房地产不行了，依赖房地产的贝壳又能好到哪里去？最近各个房地产要爆的消息不绝于耳，若是真的爆了，贝壳这佣金会不会收不回来？

啥啥分不清楚

2023-08-05

$每日优鲜(MF)$ mejoy什么来头？这么多钱借壳上市

啥啥分不清楚

2023-05-26

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 波动下行

啥啥分不清楚

2023-05-19

$贝壳(BEKE)$ 房地产市场越差贝壳越赚钱

啥啥分不清楚

2023-03-02

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$

啥啥分不清楚

2022-03-17

$贝壳(BEKE)$跑吧敦刻尔克大撤退

啥啥分不清楚

2021-05-07

$水滴(WDH)$破发

啥啥分不清楚

2021-03-08

$中金公司(03908)$exm？中国高盛？世界的垃圾！

啥啥分不清楚

2021-01-25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@少帅Pro:新年开门红，11天20%的收益，我的A股持仓思路

啥啥分不清楚

2020-11-16

$京东(JD)$牛逼一眨眼跌了5个点

啥啥分不清楚

2020-11-06

拼多多吧jd tb都不行了

阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，盘前大跳水

啥啥分不清楚

2020-10-08

免费？

盘前异动：协助治好特朗普，再生元制药涨逾5%

啥啥分不清楚

2020-10-07

疯王强撑还是真的康复了

啥啥分不清楚

2020-09-08

$Facebook(FB)$喋喋不休

啥啥分不清楚

2020-09-08

$字节跳动（未上市）(BYTE)$什么时候上市

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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越南许家印，他早晚会爆，但是没人知道是什么时候","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/213809336180952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":206382185889920,"gmtCreate":1691417838415,"gmtModify":1691417840441,"author":{"id":"3540036697038119","authorId":"3540036697038119","name":"啥啥分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b387c9286e72cfc8394ec24719d9c6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540036697038119","authorIdStr":"3540036697038119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$ &nbsp;</a>房地产不行了，依赖房地产的贝壳又能好到哪里去？最近各个房地产要爆的消息不绝于耳，若是真的爆了，贝壳这佣金会不会收不回来？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$ &nbsp;</a>房地产不行了，依赖房地产的贝壳又能好到哪里去？最近各个房地产要爆的消息不绝于耳，若是真的爆了，贝壳这佣金会不会收不回来？","text":"$贝壳(BEKE)$ 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mejoy什么来头？这么多钱借壳上市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/205450919915768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000148","authorId":"9000000000000148","name":"河东荷西","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70eb8e5a109296fe82a90563211f430b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000148","authorIdStr":"9000000000000148"},"content":"只要现金流没什么问题，这公司就不会有什么问题","text":"只要现金流没什么问题，这公司就不会有什么问题","html":"只要现金流没什么问题，这公司就不会有什么问题"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":655934993,"gmtCreate":1685031780112,"gmtModify":1685031781113,"author":{"id":"3540036697038119","authorId":"3540036697038119","name":"啥啥分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b387c9286e72cfc8394ec24719d9c6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540036697038119","authorIdStr":"3540036697038119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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tb都不行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302215118","repostId":"1108592315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108592315","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1604576750,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108592315?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-05 19:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，盘前大跳水","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108592315","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月5日美股盘前，阿里巴巴公布2021财年Q2财报。财报显示，阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，市场预期1547.37亿元，去年同期1190.17亿元。第二财季净利润470.9亿元，市场预期25","content":"<p>11月5日美股盘前，阿里巴巴公布2021财年Q2财报。财报显示，阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，市场预期1547.37亿元，去年同期1190.17亿元。第二财季净利润470.9亿元，市场预期254.33亿元，去年同期725.4亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1eaad71464aaab5a7a026f37e2e8e4e\" tg-width=\"1115\" tg-height=\"780\"></p><p><b>第二季度月活跃移动用户8.81亿，市场预估8.99亿。</b></p><p>中国零售市场年度活跃消费者达7.57亿，较截至2020年6月30日止12个月期间增加1,500万。</p><p>于9月底止季度，云计算的收入同比增长60%至人民币148.99亿元（21.94亿美元），主要受到来自互联网、金融及零售行业的客户收入增长所推动。</p><p>截至今年9月底，淘宝直播12个月的GMV超过3500亿元；天猫国际GMV（剔除未支付订单）在本季度同比增长37%。</p><p>于9月底止季度，优酷的日均付费用户同比增长45%，主要由别具吸引力的原创内容，以及来自88VIP会员计划的贡献增加。</p><p>公布财报后，阿里巴巴美股盘前跳水，抹去此前3%的涨幅，一度跌逾3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e2726fcfe3c2de2dc076d809fbbc2d\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><b>业绩概要 </b></p><p>截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日止季度：</p><ul><li>收入为人民币 1,550.59 亿元（228.38 亿美元），同比增长 30%。</li></ul><ul><li>中国零售市场年度活跃消费者达 7.57 亿，较截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日止 12 个月期间增加 1,500 万。</li></ul><ul><li>2020 年 9 月，中国零售市场移动月活跃用户达 8.81 亿，较 2020 年 6 月增加 700 万。</li></ul><ul><li>经营利润为人民币 136.34 亿元（20.08 亿美元），同比减少 33% ，主要由于与蚂蚁集团相 关并授予我们员工的股权激励费用上升人民币 157.53 亿元。若不考虑该影响，我们的经营利 润将由截至 2019 年 9 月 30 日止季度的人民币 206.67 亿元增长 44%至截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日止季度的人民币 296.90 亿元（43.73 亿美元）。</li></ul><ul><li>经调整 EBITDA（一项非公认会计准则财务指标）同比增长 28%至人民币 475.25 亿元 （70.00 亿美元）。 经调整 EBITA（一项非公认会计准则财务指标）同比增长 28%至人民币 412.16 亿元（60.70 亿美元）。</li></ul><ul><li>归属于普通股股东的净利润为人民币 287.69 亿元（42.37 亿美元），净利润为人民币 265.24 亿元（39.07 亿美元），同比分别减少 60%及 63%，主要原因是我们在去年 9 月份季度取得 蚂蚁集团 33%股份时确认的一次性重大收益。此外，如上文「经营利润」中描述的股权激励 费用的上升也造成本季度的同比下滑 。若不考虑该一次性收益，股权激励费用及其它若干项 目，非公认会计准则净利润为人民币 470.88 亿元（69.35 亿美元），同比增长 44%。</li></ul><ul><li>摊薄每股美国存托股收益为人民币 10.48 元（1.54 美元），非公认会计准则摊薄每股美国存 托股收益为人民币 17.97 元（2.65 美元），同比增长 37%。摊薄每股收益为人民币 1.31 元 （0.19 美元或 1.49 港元），非公认会计准则摊薄每股收益为人民币 2.25 元（0.33 美元或 2.56 港元），同比增长 37%。</li></ul><ul><li>经营活动产生的现金流量净额为人民币 542.96 亿元（79.97 亿美元），非公认会计准则自由 现金流为人民币 405.40 亿元（59.71 亿美元）。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4978dc82c58aeacf3bca969186b1a4ea\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"5700\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，盘前大跳水</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，盘前大跳水\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-05 19:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月5日美股盘前，阿里巴巴公布2021财年Q2财报。财报显示，阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，市场预期1547.37亿元，去年同期1190.17亿元。第二财季净利润470.9亿元，市场预期254.33亿元，去年同期725.4亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1eaad71464aaab5a7a026f37e2e8e4e\" tg-width=\"1115\" tg-height=\"780\"></p><p><b>第二季度月活跃移动用户8.81亿，市场预估8.99亿。</b></p><p>中国零售市场年度活跃消费者达7.57亿，较截至2020年6月30日止12个月期间增加1,500万。</p><p>于9月底止季度，云计算的收入同比增长60%至人民币148.99亿元（21.94亿美元），主要受到来自互联网、金融及零售行业的客户收入增长所推动。</p><p>截至今年9月底，淘宝直播12个月的GMV超过3500亿元；天猫国际GMV（剔除未支付订单）在本季度同比增长37%。</p><p>于9月底止季度，优酷的日均付费用户同比增长45%，主要由别具吸引力的原创内容，以及来自88VIP会员计划的贡献增加。</p><p>公布财报后，阿里巴巴美股盘前跳水，抹去此前3%的涨幅，一度跌逾3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e2726fcfe3c2de2dc076d809fbbc2d\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><b>业绩概要 </b></p><p>截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日止季度：</p><ul><li>收入为人民币 1,550.59 亿元（228.38 亿美元），同比增长 30%。</li></ul><ul><li>中国零售市场年度活跃消费者达 7.57 亿，较截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日止 12 个月期间增加 1,500 万。</li></ul><ul><li>2020 年 9 月，中国零售市场移动月活跃用户达 8.81 亿，较 2020 年 6 月增加 700 万。</li></ul><ul><li>经营利润为人民币 136.34 亿元（20.08 亿美元），同比减少 33% ，主要由于与蚂蚁集团相 关并授予我们员工的股权激励费用上升人民币 157.53 亿元。若不考虑该影响，我们的经营利 润将由截至 2019 年 9 月 30 日止季度的人民币 206.67 亿元增长 44%至截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日止季度的人民币 296.90 亿元（43.73 亿美元）。</li></ul><ul><li>经调整 EBITDA（一项非公认会计准则财务指标）同比增长 28%至人民币 475.25 亿元 （70.00 亿美元）。 经调整 EBITA（一项非公认会计准则财务指标）同比增长 28%至人民币 412.16 亿元（60.70 亿美元）。</li></ul><ul><li>归属于普通股股东的净利润为人民币 287.69 亿元（42.37 亿美元），净利润为人民币 265.24 亿元（39.07 亿美元），同比分别减少 60%及 63%，主要原因是我们在去年 9 月份季度取得 蚂蚁集团 33%股份时确认的一次性重大收益。此外，如上文「经营利润」中描述的股权激励 费用的上升也造成本季度的同比下滑 。若不考虑该一次性收益，股权激励费用及其它若干项 目，非公认会计准则净利润为人民币 470.88 亿元（69.35 亿美元），同比增长 44%。</li></ul><ul><li>摊薄每股美国存托股收益为人民币 10.48 元（1.54 美元），非公认会计准则摊薄每股美国存 托股收益为人民币 17.97 元（2.65 美元），同比增长 37%。摊薄每股收益为人民币 1.31 元 （0.19 美元或 1.49 港元），非公认会计准则摊薄每股收益为人民币 2.25 元（0.33 美元或 2.56 港元），同比增长 37%。</li></ul><ul><li>经营活动产生的现金流量净额为人民币 542.96 亿元（79.97 亿美元），非公认会计准则自由 现金流为人民币 405.40 亿元（59.71 亿美元）。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4978dc82c58aeacf3bca969186b1a4ea\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"5700\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07f10b7ea4af0a4556d2883527967de7","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108592315","content_text":"11月5日美股盘前，阿里巴巴公布2021财年Q2财报。财报显示，阿里巴巴第二财季营收1550.6亿元，市场预期1547.37亿元，去年同期1190.17亿元。第二财季净利润470.9亿元，市场预期254.33亿元，去年同期725.4亿元。第二季度月活跃移动用户8.81亿，市场预估8.99亿。中国零售市场年度活跃消费者达7.57亿，较截至2020年6月30日止12个月期间增加1,500万。于9月底止季度，云计算的收入同比增长60%至人民币148.99亿元（21.94亿美元），主要受到来自互联网、金融及零售行业的客户收入增长所推动。截至今年9月底，淘宝直播12个月的GMV超过3500亿元；天猫国际GMV（剔除未支付订单）在本季度同比增长37%。于9月底止季度，优酷的日均付费用户同比增长45%，主要由别具吸引力的原创内容，以及来自88VIP会员计划的贡献增加。公布财报后，阿里巴巴美股盘前跳水，抹去此前3%的涨幅，一度跌逾3%。业绩概要 截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日止季度：收入为人民币 1,550.59 亿元（228.38 亿美元），同比增长 30%。中国零售市场年度活跃消费者达 7.57 亿，较截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日止 12 个月期间增加 1,500 万。2020 年 9 月，中国零售市场移动月活跃用户达 8.81 亿，较 2020 年 6 月增加 700 万。经营利润为人民币 136.34 亿元（20.08 亿美元），同比减少 33% ，主要由于与蚂蚁集团相 关并授予我们员工的股权激励费用上升人民币 157.53 亿元。若不考虑该影响，我们的经营利 润将由截至 2019 年 9 月 30 日止季度的人民币 206.67 亿元增长 44%至截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日止季度的人民币 296.90 亿元（43.73 亿美元）。经调整 EBITDA（一项非公认会计准则财务指标）同比增长 28%至人民币 475.25 亿元 （70.00 亿美元）。 经调整 EBITA（一项非公认会计准则财务指标）同比增长 28%至人民币 412.16 亿元（60.70 亿美元）。归属于普通股股东的净利润为人民币 287.69 亿元（42.37 亿美元），净利润为人民币 265.24 亿元（39.07 亿美元），同比分别减少 60%及 63%，主要原因是我们在去年 9 月份季度取得 蚂蚁集团 33%股份时确认的一次性重大收益。此外，如上文「经营利润」中描述的股权激励 费用的上升也造成本季度的同比下滑 。若不考虑该一次性收益，股权激励费用及其它若干项 目，非公认会计准则净利润为人民币 470.88 亿元（69.35 亿美元），同比增长 44%。摊薄每股美国存托股收益为人民币 10.48 元（1.54 美元），非公认会计准则摊薄每股美国存 托股收益为人民币 17.97 元（2.65 美元），同比增长 37%。摊薄每股收益为人民币 1.31 元 （0.19 美元或 1.49 港元），非公认会计准则摊薄每股收益为人民币 2.25 元（0.33 美元或 2.56 港元），同比增长 37%。经营活动产生的现金流量净额为人民币 542.96 亿元（79.97 亿美元），非公认会计准则自由 现金流为人民币 405.40 亿元（59.71 亿美元）。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300821157,"gmtCreate":1602145828779,"gmtModify":1703825935627,"author":{"id":"3540036697038119","authorId":"3540036697038119","name":"啥啥分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b387c9286e72cfc8394ec24719d9c6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540036697038119","authorIdStr":"3540036697038119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"免费？","listText":"免费？","text":"免费？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300821157","repostId":"1182675803","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182675803","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1602144976,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182675803?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-08 16:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动：协助治好特朗普，再生元制药涨逾5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182675803","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月8日周四，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅领先。摩根大通资产管理公司全球多元资产策略师Patrik Schowitz表示，随着11月即将到来的美国大选的不确定性日益逼近，投资者应","content":"<p>10月8日周四，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅领先。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>资产管理公司全球多元资产策略师Patrik&nbsp;Schowitz表示，随着11月即将到来的美国大选的不确定性日益逼近，投资者应该忽略那些“噪音”，而关注中期。时间跨度超过两三个月的投资者应该“增持风险资产”，比如信贷和股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13e8a88985d1fcf3f27ca24b5da0164\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"209\"></p><p>中概股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>二手车盘前涨32%，此前签署股票发售协议拟融资2500万美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>盘前涨近2%，9月营收同比增长24.9%至1275.9亿台币。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨1.22%，马斯克预计特斯拉2020年产量将达到50万辆。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">再生元制药</a>盘前涨5.47%，美国总统特朗普在感染新冠病毒后使用了该公司的所谓“抗体鸡尾酒疗法”。出院后的特朗普周三称赞了这种疗法，承诺将批准其紧急使用，并向所有美国人免费供应。</p><p>这种实验性疗法是目前正在测试的几种可能有助于治疗新冠肺炎患者的单克隆抗体疗法之一。上个月末，再生元制药公司报告了一项试验的初步结果，表明这种鸡尾酒疗法可以降低非住院新冠患者的病毒水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39effed59f58d3ec887405a8c444d0f9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动：协助治好特朗普，再生元制药涨逾5%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>资产管理公司全球多元资产策略师Patrik&nbsp;Schowitz表示，随着11月即将到来的美国大选的不确定性日益逼近，投资者应该忽略那些“噪音”，而关注中期。时间跨度超过两三个月的投资者应该“增持风险资产”，比如信贷和股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13e8a88985d1fcf3f27ca24b5da0164\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"209\"></p><p>中概股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>二手车盘前涨32%，此前签署股票发售协议拟融资2500万美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>盘前涨近2%，9月营收同比增长24.9%至1275.9亿台币。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨1.22%，马斯克预计特斯拉2020年产量将达到50万辆。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">再生元制药</a>盘前涨5.47%，美国总统特朗普在感染新冠病毒后使用了该公司的所谓“抗体鸡尾酒疗法”。出院后的特朗普周三称赞了这种疗法，承诺将批准其紧急使用，并向所有美国人免费供应。</p><p>这种实验性疗法是目前正在测试的几种可能有助于治疗新冠肺炎患者的单克隆抗体疗法之一。上个月末，再生元制药公司报告了一项试验的初步结果，表明这种鸡尾酒疗法可以降低非住院新冠患者的病毒水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39effed59f58d3ec887405a8c444d0f9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182675803","content_text":"10月8日周四，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体上涨，纳指期货涨幅领先。摩根大通资产管理公司全球多元资产策略师Patrik Schowitz表示，随着11月即将到来的美国大选的不确定性日益逼近，投资者应该忽略那些“噪音”，而关注中期。时间跨度超过两三个月的投资者应该“增持风险资产”，比如信贷和股票。中概股优信二手车盘前涨32%，此前签署股票发售协议拟融资2500万美元。台积电盘前涨近2%，9月营收同比增长24.9%至1275.9亿台币。特斯拉盘前涨1.22%，马斯克预计特斯拉2020年产量将达到50万辆。再生元制药盘前涨5.47%，美国总统特朗普在感染新冠病毒后使用了该公司的所谓“抗体鸡尾酒疗法”。出院后的特朗普周三称赞了这种疗法，承诺将批准其紧急使用，并向所有美国人免费供应。这种实验性疗法是目前正在测试的几种可能有助于治疗新冠肺炎患者的单克隆抗体疗法之一。上个月末，再生元制药公司报告了一项试验的初步结果，表明这种鸡尾酒疗法可以降低非住院新冠患者的病毒水平。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300350540,"gmtCreate":1602041843380,"gmtModify":1703825685052,"author":{"id":"3540036697038119","authorId":"3540036697038119","name":"啥啥分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b387c9286e72cfc8394ec24719d9c6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540036697038119","authorIdStr":"3540036697038119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"疯王强撑还是真的康复了","listText":"疯王强撑还是真的康复了","text":"疯王强撑还是真的康复了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300350540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976930005,"gmtCreate":1599566183307,"gmtModify":1703818826564,"author":{"id":"3540036697038119","authorId":"3540036697038119","name":"啥啥分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b387c9286e72cfc8394ec24719d9c6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540036697038119","authorIdStr":"3540036697038119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>加油呀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>加油呀","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$加油呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976997967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920463557,"gmtCreate":1585109675479,"gmtModify":1704356938452,"author":{"id":"3540036697038119","authorId":"3540036697038119","name":"啥啥分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b387c9286e72cfc8394ec24719d9c6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540036697038119","authorIdStr":"3540036697038119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在真的是波段&nbsp; 一个消息就涨一个消息就跌","listText":"现在真的是波段&nbsp; 一个消息就涨一个消息就跌","text":"现在真的是波段 一个消息就涨一个消息就跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920463557","repostId":"1133028950","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133028950","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1585103808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133028950?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-25 10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133028950","media":"格隆汇","summary":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）\n\n图片来源：Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市","content":"<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：</span></p>\n<p><span>（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；</span></p>\n<p><span>（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的，</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后，</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-25 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：</span></p>\n<p><span>（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；</span></p>\n<p><span>（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的，</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后，</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a4572b675796b315e560ea7fe3401","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133028950","content_text":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）\n\n图片来源：Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。\n两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。\n消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：\n（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；\n（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。\n但是更本质的，在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌到底的征兆。\n比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），即总跌幅接近50%之后，出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。\n\n1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind\n如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。\n\n2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind\n但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。\n\n1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind\n今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。\n无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。\n隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。\n摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。\n有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。\n我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万。\n这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。\n\n海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻\n时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。\n还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。\n还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958643974,"gmtCreate":1591273604398,"gmtModify":1704195085066,"author":{"id":"3540036697038119","authorId":"3540036697038119","name":"啥啥分不清楚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b387c9286e72cfc8394ec24719d9c6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3540036697038119","authorIdStr":"3540036697038119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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