Supermars的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Supermars

Supermars

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：浙江

97关注

10粉丝

3主题

0勋章

11-23

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 当时因为买不了IBIT而买了MSTR，反而碰上了[微笑]

11-07

$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$

2021-06-29

$老虎证券(TIGR)$从上市后16块买进跌到2块，时间的回馈。

01-20

$英伟达(NVDA)$

11-11

$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$ 40多就卖了，my gold [开心]

11-07

$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$ 借川普的光

05-31

$英伟达(NVDA)$

06-05

$英伟达(NVDA)$

2021-11-30

猛跌的意思是这个标准对电子烟不友好吗？

电子烟国标状态变更为“征求意见”

11-07

$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$ coin变成了标准的川股

2021-02-11

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$会长成第二个蔚来么！

11-07

Replying to @爱旅行的萌妹子一枚:今天看没什么区别吧？//@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚:5块钱的区别//@Supermars:矫情， 161和166有什么区别

11-07

$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$

10-09

关于二0二二年的十个预测，中金全猜到了相反的方向，简直是神一样的存在

老虎证券：“中国资产”交易活跃下的优质弹性标的

10-04

$PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL$

10-04

矫情， 161和166有什么区别

06-19

不管英伟达股价是否见顶，但你对内部人士减持的看法不合理，人家的成本可能是个位数的，已经有了上百倍的收益，先获利了结部分，不管是改善生活还是奢侈一把，都是很好的安排

期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益

05-29

卖飞了，只剩下三分之一

02-22

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 亏的就不说了

2023-05-26

还行

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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coin变成了标准的川股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a> coin变成了标准的川股","text":"$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$ coin变成了标准的川股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c9b7c9465249cb220db48b815414d9"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368280315207976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368231905509496,"gmtCreate":1730916316037,"gmtModify":1730916319433,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:今天看没什么区别吧？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:5块钱的区别//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3536290208008675\">@Supermars</a>:矫情， 161和166有什么区别","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:今天看没什么区别吧？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:5块钱的区别//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3536290208008675\">@Supermars</a>:矫情， 161和166有什么区别","text":"Replying to @爱旅行的萌妹子一枚:今天看没什么区别吧？//@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚:5块钱的区别//@Supermars:矫情， 161和166有什么区别","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368231905509496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368227803254960,"gmtCreate":1730915419082,"gmtModify":1730931663659,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a> 借川普的光","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a> 借川普的光","text":"$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$ 借川普的光","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dfa4e5b9a3c98199bbfa6abd612c411","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368227803254960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368156464083368,"gmtCreate":1730913561031,"gmtModify":1730914322650,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2985f27a0d19b132faeed1ca25c2a5f","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368156464083368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368155815879072,"gmtCreate":1730913402685,"gmtModify":1730913403696,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368155815879072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357932369334504,"gmtCreate":1728404520164,"gmtModify":1728404522111,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关于二0二二年的十个预测，中金全猜到了相反的方向，简直是神一样的存在","listText":"关于二0二二年的十个预测，中金全猜到了相反的方向，简直是神一样的存在","text":"关于二0二二年的十个预测，中金全猜到了相反的方向，简直是神一样的存在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357932369334504","repostId":"1155653694","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155653694","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1728353200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155653694?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-08 10:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎证券：“中国资产”交易活跃下的优质弹性标的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155653694","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"文章来源：中金公司投资建议我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><em>文章来源：中金公司</em></p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p>我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。</p><p><strong>理由</strong></p><p><strong>公司股价近期在涨什么？</strong>老虎近三周上涨262%，我们认为主要受益于中概及恒生科技的反弹、且公司原先更小的市值具备更高弹性。公司今年YTD客户交易量结构中美股（尤其是Mega7）贡献近九成，但中国香港市场2Q24贡献新增入金用户数的15%、且客户质量保持较高水平、客户资产环比翻倍；受益于中国资产的活跃，老虎9/23-9/27整周交易账户数量和交易订单数量创两年内新高，其中港股成交额/交易账户数分别较前一周+221%/+114%均达两年内最高、A股成交额+533%/交易股数+659%。</p><p><strong>港美股对公司的弹性测算？</strong>老虎作为同时支持中概美股、港股、A股（陆股通）等“中国资产”以及美国科技股交易的零售券商，其业绩显著受益于市场反弹及交易活跃，体现在新获客加速/单位成本下降、客户净入金增加、持仓市值随市上涨、交易换手率大幅提升等；特别地，即使美股市场表现乏力，公司仍受益于波动市场下换手提升、以及客户在美/港/A股通间的交易腾挪。敏感性分析：在客户总资产规模不变情形下，换手率每提升2x、盈利增速+37ppt；实际上，若考虑市场活跃下两融/衍生品需求增加、单位成本下降提升利润率等因素，我们认为公司的盈利增速或将更高。</p><p><strong>如何看待公司当前估值</strong>？基于客户综合换手率14x、客户总资产规模45%增速的假设，老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E，若将其客户换手率从14x上修至20x、则对应不到11x 25e P/E，对比同业可比公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a> 35x/盈透20x 25e P/E仍有提升空间。</p><p><strong>后续还有哪些催化？</strong>关注公司包括虚拟资产/VATP等在内的新产品/新牌照上线进展、在服务零售投资者外的机构客户服务模式拓展、中国香港以及新加坡等东南亚地区的获客数据披露、潜在的全年新增获客指引上调、港美股市场活跃等。此外，公司2Q24计提港股股票质押减值约1,320万美元，假若后续冲回减值，我们预计其亦将在一定程度上提升公司盈利。</p><p><strong>盈利预测与估值</strong></p><p>老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E。我们维持24/25年盈利0.71/1.02亿美元及目标价20美元不变，对应44x/31x 24/25e P/E及61%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评级。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎证券：“中国资产”交易活跃下的优质弹性标的</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎证券：“中国资产”交易活跃下的优质弹性标的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-08 10:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><em>文章来源：中金公司</em></p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p>我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。</p><p><strong>理由</strong></p><p><strong>公司股价近期在涨什么？</strong>老虎近三周上涨262%，我们认为主要受益于中概及恒生科技的反弹、且公司原先更小的市值具备更高弹性。公司今年YTD客户交易量结构中美股（尤其是Mega7）贡献近九成，但中国香港市场2Q24贡献新增入金用户数的15%、且客户质量保持较高水平、客户资产环比翻倍；受益于中国资产的活跃，老虎9/23-9/27整周交易账户数量和交易订单数量创两年内新高，其中港股成交额/交易账户数分别较前一周+221%/+114%均达两年内最高、A股成交额+533%/交易股数+659%。</p><p><strong>港美股对公司的弹性测算？</strong>老虎作为同时支持中概美股、港股、A股（陆股通）等“中国资产”以及美国科技股交易的零售券商，其业绩显著受益于市场反弹及交易活跃，体现在新获客加速/单位成本下降、客户净入金增加、持仓市值随市上涨、交易换手率大幅提升等；特别地，即使美股市场表现乏力，公司仍受益于波动市场下换手提升、以及客户在美/港/A股通间的交易腾挪。敏感性分析：在客户总资产规模不变情形下，换手率每提升2x、盈利增速+37ppt；实际上，若考虑市场活跃下两融/衍生品需求增加、单位成本下降提升利润率等因素，我们认为公司的盈利增速或将更高。</p><p><strong>如何看待公司当前估值</strong>？基于客户综合换手率14x、客户总资产规模45%增速的假设，老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E，若将其客户换手率从14x上修至20x、则对应不到11x 25e P/E，对比同业可比公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a> 35x/盈透20x 25e P/E仍有提升空间。</p><p><strong>后续还有哪些催化？</strong>关注公司包括虚拟资产/VATP等在内的新产品/新牌照上线进展、在服务零售投资者外的机构客户服务模式拓展、中国香港以及新加坡等东南亚地区的获客数据披露、潜在的全年新增获客指引上调、港美股市场活跃等。此外，公司2Q24计提港股股票质押减值约1,320万美元，假若后续冲回减值，我们预计其亦将在一定程度上提升公司盈利。</p><p><strong>盈利预测与估值</strong></p><p>老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E。我们维持24/25年盈利0.71/1.02亿美元及目标价20美元不变，对应44x/31x 24/25e P/E及61%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评级。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dc07ee61db7080412aa8876596e51c5","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155653694","content_text":"文章来源：中金公司投资建议我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。理由公司股价近期在涨什么？老虎近三周上涨262%，我们认为主要受益于中概及恒生科技的反弹、且公司原先更小的市值具备更高弹性。公司今年YTD客户交易量结构中美股（尤其是Mega7）贡献近九成，但中国香港市场2Q24贡献新增入金用户数的15%、且客户质量保持较高水平、客户资产环比翻倍；受益于中国资产的活跃，老虎9/23-9/27整周交易账户数量和交易订单数量创两年内新高，其中港股成交额/交易账户数分别较前一周+221%/+114%均达两年内最高、A股成交额+533%/交易股数+659%。港美股对公司的弹性测算？老虎作为同时支持中概美股、港股、A股（陆股通）等“中国资产”以及美国科技股交易的零售券商，其业绩显著受益于市场反弹及交易活跃，体现在新获客加速/单位成本下降、客户净入金增加、持仓市值随市上涨、交易换手率大幅提升等；特别地，即使美股市场表现乏力，公司仍受益于波动市场下换手提升、以及客户在美/港/A股通间的交易腾挪。敏感性分析：在客户总资产规模不变情形下，换手率每提升2x、盈利增速+37ppt；实际上，若考虑市场活跃下两融/衍生品需求增加、单位成本下降提升利润率等因素，我们认为公司的盈利增速或将更高。如何看待公司当前估值？基于客户综合换手率14x、客户总资产规模45%增速的假设，老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E，若将其客户换手率从14x上修至20x、则对应不到11x 25e P/E，对比同业可比公司Robinhood 35x/盈透20x 25e P/E仍有提升空间。后续还有哪些催化？关注公司包括虚拟资产/VATP等在内的新产品/新牌照上线进展、在服务零售投资者外的机构客户服务模式拓展、中国香港以及新加坡等东南亚地区的获客数据披露、潜在的全年新增获客指引上调、港美股市场活跃等。此外，公司2Q24计提港股股票质押减值约1,320万美元，假若后续冲回减值，我们预计其亦将在一定程度上提升公司盈利。盈利预测与估值老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E。我们维持24/25年盈利0.71/1.02亿美元及目标价20美元不变，对应44x/31x 24/25e P/E及61%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356574899630360,"gmtCreate":1728056394267,"gmtModify":1728056395367,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL\">$PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL\">$PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356574899630360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356534372921488,"gmtCreate":1728054134022,"gmtModify":1728054136428,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"矫情， 161和166有什么区别","listText":"矫情， 161和166有什么区别","text":"矫情， 161和166有什么区别","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356534372921488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318236393824536,"gmtCreate":1718733036673,"gmtModify":1718733038937,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不管英伟达股价是否见顶，但你对内部人士减持的看法不合理，人家的成本可能是个位数的，已经有了上百倍的收益，先获利了结部分，不管是改善生活还是奢侈一把，都是很好的安排","listText":"不管英伟达股价是否见顶，但你对内部人士减持的看法不合理，人家的成本可能是个位数的，已经有了上百倍的收益，先获利了结部分，不管是改善生活还是奢侈一把，都是很好的安排","text":"不管英伟达股价是否见顶，但你对内部人士减持的看法不合理，人家的成本可能是个位数的，已经有了上百倍的收益，先获利了结部分，不管是改善生活还是奢侈一把，都是很好的安排","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318236393824536","repostId":"1173868444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173868444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1718692822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173868444?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-18 14:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173868444","media":"期权女巫","summary":"根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外  3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外看跌期权。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-18 14:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173868444","content_text":"英伟达 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。强劲的自由现金流利润率5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。卖空价外 (OTM) 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16:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据全国标准信息公共服务平台，电子烟国标(20171624-Q-456)状态变更为“正在征求意见”。征求意见稿提出，雾化物中的烟碱浓度不应高于20mg/g，烟碱总量不应高于200mg”。烟碱释放量不应高于0.2mg/puff。雾化物杂质和污染物中，2,3-丁二酮应≤22mg/kg，砷应（以As计）应≤3mg/kg。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c498e4d6c9d28289d2fd7392c8f25c38\" tg-width=\"1140\" tg-height=\"755\" 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16:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据全国标准信息公共服务平台，电子烟国标(20171624-Q-456)状态变更为“正在征求意见”。征求意见稿提出，雾化物中的烟碱浓度不应高于20mg/g，烟碱总量不应高于200mg”。烟碱释放量不应高于0.2mg/puff。雾化物杂质和污染物中，2,3-丁二酮应≤22mg/kg，砷应（以As计）应≤3mg/kg。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c498e4d6c9d28289d2fd7392c8f25c38\" tg-width=\"1140\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc4ee269ad9cff7441dc3605e3bc69a","relate_stocks":{"06969":"思摩尔国际","RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112451529","content_text":"据全国标准信息公共服务平台，电子烟国标(20171624-Q-456)状态变更为“正在征求意见”。征求意见稿提出，雾化物中的烟碱浓度不应高于20mg/g，烟碱总量不应高于200mg”。烟碱释放量不应高于0.2mg/puff。雾化物杂质和污染物中，2,3-丁二酮应≤22mg/kg，砷应（以As计）应≤3mg/kg。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368280315207976,"gmtCreate":1730934135591,"gmtModify":1730939946946,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a> coin变成了标准的川股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a> coin变成了标准的川股","text":"$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$ coin变成了标准的川股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c9b7c9465249cb220db48b815414d9"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368280315207976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388264110,"gmtCreate":1613058461230,"gmtModify":1703769035801,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a>会长成第二个蔚来么！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a>会长成第二个蔚来么！","text":"$嘉楠科技(CAN)$会长成第二个蔚来么！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf0b9f4555fb8b5e71398bb2ea40236","width":"1284","height":"2457"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388264110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368231905509496,"gmtCreate":1730916316037,"gmtModify":1730916319433,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:今天看没什么区别吧？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:5块钱的区别//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3536290208008675\">@Supermars</a>:矫情， 161和166有什么区别","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:今天看没什么区别吧？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚</a>:5块钱的区别//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3536290208008675\">@Supermars</a>:矫情， 161和166有什么区别","text":"Replying to @爱旅行的萌妹子一枚:今天看没什么区别吧？//@爱旅行的萌妹子一枚:5块钱的区别//@Supermars:矫情， 161和166有什么区别","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368231905509496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368155815879072,"gmtCreate":1730913402685,"gmtModify":1730913403696,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$COIN 20250117 220.0 CALL$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368155815879072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357932369334504,"gmtCreate":1728404520164,"gmtModify":1728404522111,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关于二0二二年的十个预测，中金全猜到了相反的方向，简直是神一样的存在","listText":"关于二0二二年的十个预测，中金全猜到了相反的方向，简直是神一样的存在","text":"关于二0二二年的十个预测，中金全猜到了相反的方向，简直是神一样的存在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357932369334504","repostId":"1155653694","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155653694","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1728353200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155653694?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-08 10:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎证券：“中国资产”交易活跃下的优质弹性标的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155653694","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"文章来源：中金公司投资建议我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><em>文章来源：中金公司</em></p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p>我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。</p><p><strong>理由</strong></p><p><strong>公司股价近期在涨什么？</strong>老虎近三周上涨262%，我们认为主要受益于中概及恒生科技的反弹、且公司原先更小的市值具备更高弹性。公司今年YTD客户交易量结构中美股（尤其是Mega7）贡献近九成，但中国香港市场2Q24贡献新增入金用户数的15%、且客户质量保持较高水平、客户资产环比翻倍；受益于中国资产的活跃，老虎9/23-9/27整周交易账户数量和交易订单数量创两年内新高，其中港股成交额/交易账户数分别较前一周+221%/+114%均达两年内最高、A股成交额+533%/交易股数+659%。</p><p><strong>港美股对公司的弹性测算？</strong>老虎作为同时支持中概美股、港股、A股（陆股通）等“中国资产”以及美国科技股交易的零售券商，其业绩显著受益于市场反弹及交易活跃，体现在新获客加速/单位成本下降、客户净入金增加、持仓市值随市上涨、交易换手率大幅提升等；特别地，即使美股市场表现乏力，公司仍受益于波动市场下换手提升、以及客户在美/港/A股通间的交易腾挪。敏感性分析：在客户总资产规模不变情形下，换手率每提升2x、盈利增速+37ppt；实际上，若考虑市场活跃下两融/衍生品需求增加、单位成本下降提升利润率等因素，我们认为公司的盈利增速或将更高。</p><p><strong>如何看待公司当前估值</strong>？基于客户综合换手率14x、客户总资产规模45%增速的假设，老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E，若将其客户换手率从14x上修至20x、则对应不到11x 25e P/E，对比同业可比公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a> 35x/盈透20x 25e P/E仍有提升空间。</p><p><strong>后续还有哪些催化？</strong>关注公司包括虚拟资产/VATP等在内的新产品/新牌照上线进展、在服务零售投资者外的机构客户服务模式拓展、中国香港以及新加坡等东南亚地区的获客数据披露、潜在的全年新增获客指引上调、港美股市场活跃等。此外，公司2Q24计提港股股票质押减值约1,320万美元，假若后续冲回减值，我们预计其亦将在一定程度上提升公司盈利。</p><p><strong>盈利预测与估值</strong></p><p>老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E。我们维持24/25年盈利0.71/1.02亿美元及目标价20美元不变，对应44x/31x 24/25e P/E及61%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评级。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎证券：“中国资产”交易活跃下的优质弹性标的</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎证券：“中国资产”交易活跃下的优质弹性标的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-08 10:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><em>文章来源：中金公司</em></p><p><strong>投资建议</strong></p><p>我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。</p><p><strong>理由</strong></p><p><strong>公司股价近期在涨什么？</strong>老虎近三周上涨262%，我们认为主要受益于中概及恒生科技的反弹、且公司原先更小的市值具备更高弹性。公司今年YTD客户交易量结构中美股（尤其是Mega7）贡献近九成，但中国香港市场2Q24贡献新增入金用户数的15%、且客户质量保持较高水平、客户资产环比翻倍；受益于中国资产的活跃，老虎9/23-9/27整周交易账户数量和交易订单数量创两年内新高，其中港股成交额/交易账户数分别较前一周+221%/+114%均达两年内最高、A股成交额+533%/交易股数+659%。</p><p><strong>港美股对公司的弹性测算？</strong>老虎作为同时支持中概美股、港股、A股（陆股通）等“中国资产”以及美国科技股交易的零售券商，其业绩显著受益于市场反弹及交易活跃，体现在新获客加速/单位成本下降、客户净入金增加、持仓市值随市上涨、交易换手率大幅提升等；特别地，即使美股市场表现乏力，公司仍受益于波动市场下换手提升、以及客户在美/港/A股通间的交易腾挪。敏感性分析：在客户总资产规模不变情形下，换手率每提升2x、盈利增速+37ppt；实际上，若考虑市场活跃下两融/衍生品需求增加、单位成本下降提升利润率等因素，我们认为公司的盈利增速或将更高。</p><p><strong>如何看待公司当前估值</strong>？基于客户综合换手率14x、客户总资产规模45%增速的假设，老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E，若将其客户换手率从14x上修至20x、则对应不到11x 25e P/E，对比同业可比公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a> 35x/盈透20x 25e P/E仍有提升空间。</p><p><strong>后续还有哪些催化？</strong>关注公司包括虚拟资产/VATP等在内的新产品/新牌照上线进展、在服务零售投资者外的机构客户服务模式拓展、中国香港以及新加坡等东南亚地区的获客数据披露、潜在的全年新增获客指引上调、港美股市场活跃等。此外，公司2Q24计提港股股票质押减值约1,320万美元，假若后续冲回减值，我们预计其亦将在一定程度上提升公司盈利。</p><p><strong>盈利预测与估值</strong></p><p>老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E。我们维持24/25年盈利0.71/1.02亿美元及目标价20美元不变，对应44x/31x 24/25e P/E及61%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评级。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dc07ee61db7080412aa8876596e51c5","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155653694","content_text":"文章来源：中金公司投资建议我们看好老虎受益于包括中概美股、港股及A股等在内的“中国资产”的交易活跃，同时公司自身国际化拓展稳步推进、产品生态愈发完善、盈利稳健性不断夯实，有望在市场向上周期中迎来业绩及估值的双升。理由公司股价近期在涨什么？老虎近三周上涨262%，我们认为主要受益于中概及恒生科技的反弹、且公司原先更小的市值具备更高弹性。公司今年YTD客户交易量结构中美股（尤其是Mega7）贡献近九成，但中国香港市场2Q24贡献新增入金用户数的15%、且客户质量保持较高水平、客户资产环比翻倍；受益于中国资产的活跃，老虎9/23-9/27整周交易账户数量和交易订单数量创两年内新高，其中港股成交额/交易账户数分别较前一周+221%/+114%均达两年内最高、A股成交额+533%/交易股数+659%。港美股对公司的弹性测算？老虎作为同时支持中概美股、港股、A股（陆股通）等“中国资产”以及美国科技股交易的零售券商，其业绩显著受益于市场反弹及交易活跃，体现在新获客加速/单位成本下降、客户净入金增加、持仓市值随市上涨、交易换手率大幅提升等；特别地，即使美股市场表现乏力，公司仍受益于波动市场下换手提升、以及客户在美/港/A股通间的交易腾挪。敏感性分析：在客户总资产规模不变情形下，换手率每提升2x、盈利增速+37ppt；实际上，若考虑市场活跃下两融/衍生品需求增加、单位成本下降提升利润率等因素，我们认为公司的盈利增速或将更高。如何看待公司当前估值？基于客户综合换手率14x、客户总资产规模45%增速的假设，老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E，若将其客户换手率从14x上修至20x、则对应不到11x 25e P/E，对比同业可比公司Robinhood 35x/盈透20x 25e P/E仍有提升空间。后续还有哪些催化？关注公司包括虚拟资产/VATP等在内的新产品/新牌照上线进展、在服务零售投资者外的机构客户服务模式拓展、中国香港以及新加坡等东南亚地区的获客数据披露、潜在的全年新增获客指引上调、港美股市场活跃等。此外，公司2Q24计提港股股票质押减值约1,320万美元，假若后续冲回减值，我们预计其亦将在一定程度上提升公司盈利。盈利预测与估值老虎当前交易于27x/19x 24/25e P/E。我们维持24/25年盈利0.71/1.02亿美元及目标价20美元不变，对应44x/31x 24/25e P/E及61%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356574899630360,"gmtCreate":1728056394267,"gmtModify":1728056395367,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL\">$PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL\">$PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$PDD 20250117 120.0 CALL$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356574899630360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356534372921488,"gmtCreate":1728054134022,"gmtModify":1728054136428,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"矫情， 161和166有什么区别","listText":"矫情， 161和166有什么区别","text":"矫情， 161和166有什么区别","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356534372921488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318236393824536,"gmtCreate":1718733036673,"gmtModify":1718733038937,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不管英伟达股价是否见顶，但你对内部人士减持的看法不合理，人家的成本可能是个位数的，已经有了上百倍的收益，先获利了结部分，不管是改善生活还是奢侈一把，都是很好的安排","listText":"不管英伟达股价是否见顶，但你对内部人士减持的看法不合理，人家的成本可能是个位数的，已经有了上百倍的收益，先获利了结部分，不管是改善生活还是奢侈一把，都是很好的安排","text":"不管英伟达股价是否见顶，但你对内部人士减持的看法不合理，人家的成本可能是个位数的，已经有了上百倍的收益，先获利了结部分，不管是改善生活还是奢侈一把，都是很好的安排","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318236393824536","repostId":"1173868444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173868444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1718692822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173868444?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-18 14:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173868444","media":"期权女巫","summary":"根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外  3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外看跌期权。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-18 14:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173868444","content_text":"英伟达 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。强劲的自由现金流利润率5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。‌$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  ‌这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311093662752976,"gmtCreate":1716970920459,"gmtModify":1716970922533,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"卖飞了，只剩下三分之一","listText":"卖飞了，只剩下三分之一","text":"卖飞了，只剩下三分之一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311093662752976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276543720263920,"gmtCreate":1708543943995,"gmtModify":1708556538944,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 亏的就不说了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 亏的就不说了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 亏的就不说了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377af754432055d8a5eaed62e6cc349f","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276543720263920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":655910242,"gmtCreate":1685042197886,"gmtModify":1685042199837,"author":{"id":"3536290208008675","authorId":"3536290208008675","name":"Supermars","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18300a987d4e81fed2edafa5a01d9346","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536290208008675","authorIdStr":"3536290208008675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还行","listText":"还行","text":"还行","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9c6020bc2d242487933e09e3f6ef22","width":"1086","height":"1653"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/655910242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}