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cinternet
2020-11-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
谢谢大家关注空军,一直都在的哈,莫慌,你要喷我就买2w正股
cinternet
2020-11-04
$蔚来(NIO)$
已经准备了五百万,不空你空谁
cinternet
2020-11-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
我爆了
cinternet
2020-11-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
那些没加仓的多头我就看不起你们,一个劲发帖问空头,不服就加仓后来喷,晒单截图,我佩服你是个爷们,我们空头至少花钱在干。你就是发帖支持蔚来吗?
cinternet
2020-11-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
落地60w,
cinternet
2020-11-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
预估下吧,2021年1月7日model y上市,国产走量价格26.9到28.9之间,续航五百公里。那时候才是真正是骡子是马的时刻。
cinternet
2020-11-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
今晚我能跑的掉吗?
cinternet
2020-11-05
$蔚来(NIO)$
我来送钱了哈。支援下兄弟们,仓位还没满,问题不大哈。
cinternet
2020-10-15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
买了特斯拉,送了一个帽子,自动驾驶别多想了,还需要时间。
cinternet
2020-11-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
说真的,我感觉还会被拉回去,看得我很复杂。
cinternet
2020-11-24
$蔚来(NIO)$
真的要爆仓了,还能再坚持下,giao
cinternet
2020-11-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
很多人拿蔚来车主说事,你问问他有多少台车,然后他什么家庭,然后你看看中国这种家庭有多少,算一算,没人不看好蔚来或者国产,只是他虚高是对他的伤害,不信就去看特斯拉和微软,特斯拉差不多五年横盘,财报一次比一次好,微软2000年互联网泡沫后趴了十多年。我说的两个都是非常强的市场占有率和盈利能力的,如果蔚来需要跟上面两个大哥一样,他的财报容不得半点问题,只要下滑那就是灾难,内燃机时代虽然过时了,但是内燃机厮杀的时候美国汽车公司有多少家,现在还有几家,现在新能源刚刚开始而已。捧杀这东西比什么都害人。
cinternet
2020-09-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
短线交易,睡觉
cinternet
2020-09-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
玩上瘾了,失眠了
cinternet
2020-11-12
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉真的便宜,整车百分之80自己制造,自己的工厂,自己的流水线,蔚来那几个不好意思说了,有点走国内小米这些手机厂商的路子,不过也好,性价比高也行,
cinternet
2020-10-01
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
从空军到清仓,现在我买了一辆特斯拉来试试看。其实就是它降价击垮了我。不是任何其它因素。
cinternet
2020-10-01
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
我跑了 兄弟们 就怕特斯拉降价,真的怕,为了冲销量,他只要赚几千一辆车都干的出,如果股市更有钱,他可能要亏本卖占市场
cinternet
2020-11-19
$蔚来(NIO)$
部署好了,睡觉吧。
cinternet
2020-11-18
$蔚来(NIO)$
兄弟们别做空了,到处都是新能源车了,出门见到了四五辆蔚来,
cinternet
2020-10-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
all in 特斯拉
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>使劲拉","listText":"<a 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11:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2086756238","media":"见闻IPO","summary":"但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><span>2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:</span></p><p><span>◆总龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;</span></p><p><span>◇过去10年始终不温不火的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>(SZ:002594/HK:01211),直接暴涨4倍。</span></p><p><span>而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:</span></p><p><span>◆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>(NYSE:NIO),曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨接近5000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马和福特一众百年老店纷纷甩在身后吃灰。</span></p><p><span>◇<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(NYSE:XPEV)与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI),上市均不过4个月有余,股价已然双双翻倍,市值已然超越广汽(SH:601238) 、直逼吉利(HK:00175)……</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb4ce89f2834afd90000478432a950a\"/></p><p><span>图1:<span>无可匹敌的造车新势力</span></span></p><p><span>虽然必须要指出的是,造车新势力集体的高估值,对所有利益相关方都是好处多多:无论是一级市场的投资人,还是作为拿原始股的公司员工,没有人会不喜欢高估值,高估值意味着手中的真金白银的迅速膨胀,二级市场乐于为新能源击鼓传花,一级市场自然顺水推舟。</span></p><p><span>但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。</span></p><p><span>基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?</span></p><p><span><strong>一道数学题</strong></span></p><p><span>如果单论从业绩来说,此刻的造车新势力仍然相当囊中羞涩。</span></p><p><span>数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。而传统造车势力<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>20年前三季度累计销量361.32万辆。两者出货量差距以百倍计。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a5836627f6b4dba8f8f0dafde5e27d6\"/><span><span>图2:</span><span>造车新势力们的销量情况(市值统计截至11月9日)。来源:中新经纬</span></span></p><p><span>显然,这样的业绩实在谈不上优秀。</span></p><p><span>对任何一家车企来说,年销量十万辆以上才初步有规模效应,能够盈亏平衡;而更残酷的是,作为初创市场的电动车企,前期疯狂的投入更是让这个规模效应门槛迅速提升。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉今年迄今为止的总销量为316820辆,但这样一个傲视群雄的销量,上半年净利率才仅仅为2.72%。而其他如蔚来销量3万辆左右,净利率更是惨不忍睹。</span></p><p><span>利润欠奉,收入也少得可怜,想要靠业绩支持千亿估值,实在有点拿不出手。受制于骨感的现实,想要做好市值管理,必须要将业绩与估值剥离开,用A股时下流行观点就是:“不再受业绩拖累”。</span></p><p><span>只要市场上的投资者不再在乎实打实的业绩,而是为可能的未来想象空间买单,那么当下无论亏损多少,生意模式是否可行,都不再是有意义的问题。</span></p><p><span>这就组成了一道很简单的数学题:</span></p><p><span>今年到目前为止只卖了3万多辆车的蔚来市值已经接近4000亿人民币,而卖了2万多辆车的理想市值也接近2000亿。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>造车新势力每卖一辆车就相当于1000万市值。与之对比,上汽集团前三季度造车361万辆,市值3137亿,每造一辆车市值对应8万左右。</span></strong></span></p><p><span>具体而言:</span></p><p><span><strong><span>【1】卖一辆亏一辆</span></strong></span></p><p><span>此刻,曾经A股白酒股出现过的“卖酒不如倒酒涨市值快”的谜题,在造车新势力身上重现江湖:</span></p><p><span>对造车新势力来说,卖一辆车价值最多几十万,但如果每卖一辆车就可以换超过1000万市值,这样1:20的回报率情况下,最为滑稽但又最为理性的选择是:<strong>把车白送给消费者,提升估值反而是最快的。</strong></span></p><p><span>讲真,把车赔送出去这个想法,造车新势力并不是没有尝试过,实际上早就已经是基本操作了。</span></p><p><span>拿蔚来举例:消费者每购买一辆新能源车,国家给新能源车消费者都要免税+补贴,但即便如此,2018年、2019年,蔚来卖车净利率始终保持在-100%以上,分别为-194%和-144%;好在今年硬体建设资本支出按下暂停键,销量的上扬,使其净利率来到-56%左右。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58313f6adc1a462eb60a52407e5bedaa\"/></p><p><span><span>图3:</span><span>蔚来汽车的过去数年财务摘要。来源:Wind金融终端</span></span></p><p><span>也就是说,回顾迄今为止的蔚来造车历史,平均的亏损程度,真正到了字面意义上的卖一辆亏一辆的地步:将过去3年平摊,每1亿的营收都代表着近乎近一亿的亏损,每卖一辆就代表又亏损了一辆。</span></p><p><span>这样大规模的亏损,蔚来一方面解释为,是规模效应还没有到来的缘故;另一方面,诸多匪夷所思的操作也是重要原因。</span></p><p><span>来看蔚来这些年推出的亏损大礼包——比如在2019年8月宣布为所有ES8和ES6首任车主开启“终身免费换电”的服务。</span></p><p><span>要知道,早在2013年,特斯拉就推出了换电模式,之后特斯拉舍弃换电转而专注发展快充技术,其中最大的原因便是费用问题。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉的换电服务定价,甚至比汽油车加油还要贵,基本上在60-80美金之间,,换电成本的惊人之高最终让特斯拉选择放弃。</span></p><p><span>而是为对比,蔚来不仅对老车主提供的是终身免费换电服务,除此之外,选择换电模式的蔚来车用户,还可以在补贴后的价格基础上再减去7万元购买蔚来电动车。</span></p><p><span>可以想象,这种免费换电模式就一路亏损,规模不经济让造车新势力的单车亏损进一步提升。</span></p><p><span>这个减免+亏损的速度,即便背后站着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>这种财大气粗的金主,蔚来也是支撑不住的。终于,到今年8月20日,这家造车新势力终于宣布将对定金2万元用户免费换电权益进行调整,免费换电将于2020年10月12日起宣告中止。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>【2】用亏损赚估值</span></strong></span></p><p><span>当然,作为一名乐观的投资者,你可以说这是“倒吃甘蔗,一节更比一节甜”,就像你说它是“中国版特斯拉一样”,未来未至,谁能证伪呢?</span></p><p><span>不过即便如此,造车新势力们“白送”的古怪行为背后原因还是显而易见的——这源于当前疯狂的市场赋予新能源车企业的定价模型:</span></p><p><span>与传统汽车的周期股形象不同,市场对新能源车企的广阔未来充满想象,这背后的算计是,尽管造车新势力当下销量业绩欠奉,但长期赛道和高增长的逻辑没有打破,眼下的亏损并不重要,能够做出销量增长的趋势才是最重要的。</span></p><p><span><span>(</span><span>这里会有投资者反驳说,理想汽车并非如此,它上市前即实现了盈利。但如果你了解增程技术的历史与成本,就明白这种车型本应归到传统车企行列。如是,你不妨再去对比下本土传统车企7座SUV的定价,就理解销量有限、定价31.98万/辆的理想ONE为何有利润了。</span><span>)</span></span></p><p><span>因此,连卖带“送”,用最小的成本卖出最多的车,做出最好的增长曲线就成了最好的选择。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。亏钱大礼包只是业绩上亏损100%,但市值上却可以赚2000%。</span></strong><span>这道数学题在新势力们市值管理战术本中,早就算得清清楚楚。 </span></span></p><p><span><strong>一道文学题</strong></span></p><p><span>对于造车新势力来说,一旦销量直线上升,后续概率性问题难免越来越多。此时数学和心理学力所不能及之处,使得学习遣词造句的必要性就大大凸现出来。</span></p><p><span>与很多新经济前辈一样,造车新势力们也十分热衷用新词来改变叙事,词用的玄妙,让投资者更认定这家公司是代表了新能源和人类的未来——哪怕产品线有缺陷,常常召回,只要你代表人类未来,你的估值杠杆就是1:20。</span></p><p><span><span>比如:租电池叫Battery as a service(</span><span>BaaS</span><span>),这都已经不算什么汉语创新;理想给一辆混动车加一个增程式的名字混入新能源方阵,也仅仅是造车新势力的汉语言文学的小插曲。</span></span></p><p><span>截至目前,对汉语言文学贡献最大的案例来自于特斯拉和理想:车辆出现断轴情况之后,特斯拉声称,是中国用户对车辆“滥用”,而不是质量问题;理想汽车则在断轴事故发生后,试图将车辆召回定义为“硬件升级”。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>在攸关人命的事故面前,新势力匪夷所思的脑回路令人毛骨悚然。</span></strong></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3a6fb756d745d5bab02d9cffc251f4\"/></p><p><span><span>图3:</span><span>理想ONE碰撞事故导致断轴。来源:网络</span></span></p><p><span>好在除了赚的盆满钵满的狂热投资者粉丝,市场中还有冷静的监管者:国家市场监管总局网站11月6日公布召回信息,理想汽车自即日起,召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车,共计10469辆。</span></p><p><strong><span>树不会长到天上</span></strong></p><p><span>“造车唯唯诺诺,造词重拳出击”的造车新势力,在它们当前的市值管理战术本里,写满了新数学和新文学的笔记,一切都为了1:20的市值增长杠杆。</span></p><p><span>但树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏和理想当然也不能。</span></p><p><span>对于沉浮于赚钱效应五彩泡沫里快一年的投资者而言,不止是2020年,2021年更要对这些新能源车企好一些——因为它们很大概率将比较难过:</span></p><p><span><span>2020年造词这种文学幻术已经被戳破;及至2021年,随着那些有真实业绩的龙头——特斯拉和比亚迪们盈利增速的夯实,</span><strong><span>电动车企的估值模型,势必将逐渐由1:20倍回报率的PS(</span><span>市销率</span><span>)模式转向PE(</span><span>市盈率</span><span>)</span></strong><span>,</span><strong><span>届时故事再好(</span><span>前有国家产业意志开道,背靠BTAM金主护航</span><span>)也要有人买单</span></strong><span>。</span></span></p><p><span>平心而论,在一波牛市中,究竟谁在裸泳是根本看不出来的。但如果始终看不出来谁将是这场宴会买单者,也许我们应该清楚意识到,自己就是买单的那个人。 </span></p><p><span><span>读后请“五连”</span><span arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"></span></span></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n树不能长到天上去,蔚来、小鹏和理想也不能\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083533104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/0717bf7b1e5642e9827aeffbf11eb9ad);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">见闻IPO </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-28 11:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p><span>2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:</span></p><p><span>◆总龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;</span></p><p><span>◇过去10年始终不温不火的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>(SZ:002594/HK:01211),直接暴涨4倍。</span></p><p><span>而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:</span></p><p><span>◆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>(NYSE:NIO),曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨接近5000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马和福特一众百年老店纷纷甩在身后吃灰。</span></p><p><span>◇<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(NYSE:XPEV)与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI),上市均不过4个月有余,股价已然双双翻倍,市值已然超越广汽(SH:601238) 、直逼吉利(HK:00175)……</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb4ce89f2834afd90000478432a950a\"/></p><p><span>图1:<span>无可匹敌的造车新势力</span></span></p><p><span>虽然必须要指出的是,造车新势力集体的高估值,对所有利益相关方都是好处多多:无论是一级市场的投资人,还是作为拿原始股的公司员工,没有人会不喜欢高估值,高估值意味着手中的真金白银的迅速膨胀,二级市场乐于为新能源击鼓传花,一级市场自然顺水推舟。</span></p><p><span>但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。</span></p><p><span>基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?</span></p><p><span><strong>一道数学题</strong></span></p><p><span>如果单论从业绩来说,此刻的造车新势力仍然相当囊中羞涩。</span></p><p><span>数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。而传统造车势力<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>20年前三季度累计销量361.32万辆。两者出货量差距以百倍计。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a5836627f6b4dba8f8f0dafde5e27d6\"/><span><span>图2:</span><span>造车新势力们的销量情况(市值统计截至11月9日)。来源:中新经纬</span></span></p><p><span>显然,这样的业绩实在谈不上优秀。</span></p><p><span>对任何一家车企来说,年销量十万辆以上才初步有规模效应,能够盈亏平衡;而更残酷的是,作为初创市场的电动车企,前期疯狂的投入更是让这个规模效应门槛迅速提升。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉今年迄今为止的总销量为316820辆,但这样一个傲视群雄的销量,上半年净利率才仅仅为2.72%。而其他如蔚来销量3万辆左右,净利率更是惨不忍睹。</span></p><p><span>利润欠奉,收入也少得可怜,想要靠业绩支持千亿估值,实在有点拿不出手。受制于骨感的现实,想要做好市值管理,必须要将业绩与估值剥离开,用A股时下流行观点就是:“不再受业绩拖累”。</span></p><p><span>只要市场上的投资者不再在乎实打实的业绩,而是为可能的未来想象空间买单,那么当下无论亏损多少,生意模式是否可行,都不再是有意义的问题。</span></p><p><span>这就组成了一道很简单的数学题:</span></p><p><span>今年到目前为止只卖了3万多辆车的蔚来市值已经接近4000亿人民币,而卖了2万多辆车的理想市值也接近2000亿。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>造车新势力每卖一辆车就相当于1000万市值。与之对比,上汽集团前三季度造车361万辆,市值3137亿,每造一辆车市值对应8万左右。</span></strong></span></p><p><span>具体而言:</span></p><p><span><strong><span>【1】卖一辆亏一辆</span></strong></span></p><p><span>此刻,曾经A股白酒股出现过的“卖酒不如倒酒涨市值快”的谜题,在造车新势力身上重现江湖:</span></p><p><span>对造车新势力来说,卖一辆车价值最多几十万,但如果每卖一辆车就可以换超过1000万市值,这样1:20的回报率情况下,最为滑稽但又最为理性的选择是:<strong>把车白送给消费者,提升估值反而是最快的。</strong></span></p><p><span>讲真,把车赔送出去这个想法,造车新势力并不是没有尝试过,实际上早就已经是基本操作了。</span></p><p><span>拿蔚来举例:消费者每购买一辆新能源车,国家给新能源车消费者都要免税+补贴,但即便如此,2018年、2019年,蔚来卖车净利率始终保持在-100%以上,分别为-194%和-144%;好在今年硬体建设资本支出按下暂停键,销量的上扬,使其净利率来到-56%左右。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58313f6adc1a462eb60a52407e5bedaa\"/></p><p><span><span>图3:</span><span>蔚来汽车的过去数年财务摘要。来源:Wind金融终端</span></span></p><p><span>也就是说,回顾迄今为止的蔚来造车历史,平均的亏损程度,真正到了字面意义上的卖一辆亏一辆的地步:将过去3年平摊,每1亿的营收都代表着近乎近一亿的亏损,每卖一辆就代表又亏损了一辆。</span></p><p><span>这样大规模的亏损,蔚来一方面解释为,是规模效应还没有到来的缘故;另一方面,诸多匪夷所思的操作也是重要原因。</span></p><p><span>来看蔚来这些年推出的亏损大礼包——比如在2019年8月宣布为所有ES8和ES6首任车主开启“终身免费换电”的服务。</span></p><p><span>要知道,早在2013年,特斯拉就推出了换电模式,之后特斯拉舍弃换电转而专注发展快充技术,其中最大的原因便是费用问题。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉的换电服务定价,甚至比汽油车加油还要贵,基本上在60-80美金之间,,换电成本的惊人之高最终让特斯拉选择放弃。</span></p><p><span>而是为对比,蔚来不仅对老车主提供的是终身免费换电服务,除此之外,选择换电模式的蔚来车用户,还可以在补贴后的价格基础上再减去7万元购买蔚来电动车。</span></p><p><span>可以想象,这种免费换电模式就一路亏损,规模不经济让造车新势力的单车亏损进一步提升。</span></p><p><span>这个减免+亏损的速度,即便背后站着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>这种财大气粗的金主,蔚来也是支撑不住的。终于,到今年8月20日,这家造车新势力终于宣布将对定金2万元用户免费换电权益进行调整,免费换电将于2020年10月12日起宣告中止。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>【2】用亏损赚估值</span></strong></span></p><p><span>当然,作为一名乐观的投资者,你可以说这是“倒吃甘蔗,一节更比一节甜”,就像你说它是“中国版特斯拉一样”,未来未至,谁能证伪呢?</span></p><p><span>不过即便如此,造车新势力们“白送”的古怪行为背后原因还是显而易见的——这源于当前疯狂的市场赋予新能源车企业的定价模型:</span></p><p><span>与传统汽车的周期股形象不同,市场对新能源车企的广阔未来充满想象,这背后的算计是,尽管造车新势力当下销量业绩欠奉,但长期赛道和高增长的逻辑没有打破,眼下的亏损并不重要,能够做出销量增长的趋势才是最重要的。</span></p><p><span><span>(</span><span>这里会有投资者反驳说,理想汽车并非如此,它上市前即实现了盈利。但如果你了解增程技术的历史与成本,就明白这种车型本应归到传统车企行列。如是,你不妨再去对比下本土传统车企7座SUV的定价,就理解销量有限、定价31.98万/辆的理想ONE为何有利润了。</span><span>)</span></span></p><p><span>因此,连卖带“送”,用最小的成本卖出最多的车,做出最好的增长曲线就成了最好的选择。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。亏钱大礼包只是业绩上亏损100%,但市值上却可以赚2000%。</span></strong><span>这道数学题在新势力们市值管理战术本中,早就算得清清楚楚。 </span></span></p><p><span><strong>一道文学题</strong></span></p><p><span>对于造车新势力来说,一旦销量直线上升,后续概率性问题难免越来越多。此时数学和心理学力所不能及之处,使得学习遣词造句的必要性就大大凸现出来。</span></p><p><span>与很多新经济前辈一样,造车新势力们也十分热衷用新词来改变叙事,词用的玄妙,让投资者更认定这家公司是代表了新能源和人类的未来——哪怕产品线有缺陷,常常召回,只要你代表人类未来,你的估值杠杆就是1:20。</span></p><p><span><span>比如:租电池叫Battery as a service(</span><span>BaaS</span><span>),这都已经不算什么汉语创新;理想给一辆混动车加一个增程式的名字混入新能源方阵,也仅仅是造车新势力的汉语言文学的小插曲。</span></span></p><p><span>截至目前,对汉语言文学贡献最大的案例来自于特斯拉和理想:车辆出现断轴情况之后,特斯拉声称,是中国用户对车辆“滥用”,而不是质量问题;理想汽车则在断轴事故发生后,试图将车辆召回定义为“硬件升级”。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>在攸关人命的事故面前,新势力匪夷所思的脑回路令人毛骨悚然。</span></strong></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3a6fb756d745d5bab02d9cffc251f4\"/></p><p><span><span>图3:</span><span>理想ONE碰撞事故导致断轴。来源:网络</span></span></p><p><span>好在除了赚的盆满钵满的狂热投资者粉丝,市场中还有冷静的监管者:国家市场监管总局网站11月6日公布召回信息,理想汽车自即日起,召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车,共计10469辆。</span></p><p><strong><span>树不会长到天上</span></strong></p><p><span>“造车唯唯诺诺,造词重拳出击”的造车新势力,在它们当前的市值管理战术本里,写满了新数学和新文学的笔记,一切都为了1:20的市值增长杠杆。</span></p><p><span>但树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏和理想当然也不能。</span></p><p><span>对于沉浮于赚钱效应五彩泡沫里快一年的投资者而言,不止是2020年,2021年更要对这些新能源车企好一些——因为它们很大概率将比较难过:</span></p><p><span><span>2020年造词这种文学幻术已经被戳破;及至2021年,随着那些有真实业绩的龙头——特斯拉和比亚迪们盈利增速的夯实,</span><strong><span>电动车企的估值模型,势必将逐渐由1:20倍回报率的PS(</span><span>市销率</span><span>)模式转向PE(</span><span>市盈率</span><span>)</span></strong><span>,</span><strong><span>届时故事再好(</span><span>前有国家产业意志开道,背靠BTAM金主护航</span><span>)也要有人买单</span></strong><span>。</span></span></p><p><span>平心而论,在一波牛市中,究竟谁在裸泳是根本看不出来的。但如果始终看不出来谁将是这场宴会买单者,也许我们应该清楚意识到,自己就是买单的那个人。 </span></p><p><span><span>读后请“五连”</span><span arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"></span></span></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b71d696bed7d7f2622aa052fa49f99","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIzNzQwMDc2MQ==&mid=2247502966&idx=1&sn=fe618d58fa6969ea9f3be4647bf53e66&chksm=e8cbaba0dfbc22b61d354f0de3b5d1ec6267bd3231c58b796198043e217e65854e621a54a1eb&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2086756238","content_text":"2020年,请对新能源车企好一点。因为这一年间,在这条赛道下重注的投资者,全都赚得盆满钵满:◆总龙头特斯拉(NASDAQ:TSLA)一年翻升5倍,市值最高超过3万亿人民币;◇过去10年始终不温不火的比亚迪(SZ:002594/HK:01211),直接暴涨4倍。而更大的赢家,则隶属于中国造车新势力们:◆蔚来(NYSE:NIO),曾经一度烧钱烧到神志不清,几近破产;敲定融资后便妖孽一般,市值从最低点直接上涨接近5000亿人民币,将通用、大众、宝马和福特一众百年老店纷纷甩在身后吃灰。◇小鹏汽车(NYSE:XPEV)与理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI),上市均不过4个月有余,股价已然双双翻倍,市值已然超越广汽(SH:601238) 、直逼吉利(HK:00175)……图1:无可匹敌的造车新势力虽然必须要指出的是,造车新势力集体的高估值,对所有利益相关方都是好处多多:无论是一级市场的投资人,还是作为拿原始股的公司员工,没有人会不喜欢高估值,高估值意味着手中的真金白银的迅速膨胀,二级市场乐于为新能源击鼓传花,一级市场自然顺水推舟。但这也造就了一个悖论:从市值维度上看,以蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的中国造车新势力,以四五年之功,便走完了海外传统巨头的百年道路,不知是惊悚还是惊喜。基于这样的魔幻悖论,一个现实的新命题随之诞生:树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏与理想们能吗?一道数学题如果单论从业绩来说,此刻的造车新势力仍然相当囊中羞涩。数据显示,今年前10个月,蔚来汽车累计交付量达3.14万辆,同比增长111.4%,理想汽车、小鹏汽车则分别为2.19万辆和1.71万辆。而传统造车势力上汽集团20年前三季度累计销量361.32万辆。两者出货量差距以百倍计。图2:造车新势力们的销量情况(市值统计截至11月9日)。来源:中新经纬显然,这样的业绩实在谈不上优秀。对任何一家车企来说,年销量十万辆以上才初步有规模效应,能够盈亏平衡;而更残酷的是,作为初创市场的电动车企,前期疯狂的投入更是让这个规模效应门槛迅速提升。特斯拉今年迄今为止的总销量为316820辆,但这样一个傲视群雄的销量,上半年净利率才仅仅为2.72%。而其他如蔚来销量3万辆左右,净利率更是惨不忍睹。利润欠奉,收入也少得可怜,想要靠业绩支持千亿估值,实在有点拿不出手。受制于骨感的现实,想要做好市值管理,必须要将业绩与估值剥离开,用A股时下流行观点就是:“不再受业绩拖累”。只要市场上的投资者不再在乎实打实的业绩,而是为可能的未来想象空间买单,那么当下无论亏损多少,生意模式是否可行,都不再是有意义的问题。这就组成了一道很简单的数学题:今年到目前为止只卖了3万多辆车的蔚来市值已经接近4000亿人民币,而卖了2万多辆车的理想市值也接近2000亿。造车新势力每卖一辆车就相当于1000万市值。与之对比,上汽集团前三季度造车361万辆,市值3137亿,每造一辆车市值对应8万左右。具体而言:【1】卖一辆亏一辆此刻,曾经A股白酒股出现过的“卖酒不如倒酒涨市值快”的谜题,在造车新势力身上重现江湖:对造车新势力来说,卖一辆车价值最多几十万,但如果每卖一辆车就可以换超过1000万市值,这样1:20的回报率情况下,最为滑稽但又最为理性的选择是:把车白送给消费者,提升估值反而是最快的。讲真,把车赔送出去这个想法,造车新势力并不是没有尝试过,实际上早就已经是基本操作了。拿蔚来举例:消费者每购买一辆新能源车,国家给新能源车消费者都要免税+补贴,但即便如此,2018年、2019年,蔚来卖车净利率始终保持在-100%以上,分别为-194%和-144%;好在今年硬体建设资本支出按下暂停键,销量的上扬,使其净利率来到-56%左右。图3:蔚来汽车的过去数年财务摘要。来源:Wind金融终端也就是说,回顾迄今为止的蔚来造车历史,平均的亏损程度,真正到了字面意义上的卖一辆亏一辆的地步:将过去3年平摊,每1亿的营收都代表着近乎近一亿的亏损,每卖一辆就代表又亏损了一辆。这样大规模的亏损,蔚来一方面解释为,是规模效应还没有到来的缘故;另一方面,诸多匪夷所思的操作也是重要原因。来看蔚来这些年推出的亏损大礼包——比如在2019年8月宣布为所有ES8和ES6首任车主开启“终身免费换电”的服务。要知道,早在2013年,特斯拉就推出了换电模式,之后特斯拉舍弃换电转而专注发展快充技术,其中最大的原因便是费用问题。特斯拉的换电服务定价,甚至比汽油车加油还要贵,基本上在60-80美金之间,,换电成本的惊人之高最终让特斯拉选择放弃。而是为对比,蔚来不仅对老车主提供的是终身免费换电服务,除此之外,选择换电模式的蔚来车用户,还可以在补贴后的价格基础上再减去7万元购买蔚来电动车。可以想象,这种免费换电模式就一路亏损,规模不经济让造车新势力的单车亏损进一步提升。这个减免+亏损的速度,即便背后站着腾讯和宁德时代这种财大气粗的金主,蔚来也是支撑不住的。终于,到今年8月20日,这家造车新势力终于宣布将对定金2万元用户免费换电权益进行调整,免费换电将于2020年10月12日起宣告中止。【2】用亏损赚估值当然,作为一名乐观的投资者,你可以说这是“倒吃甘蔗,一节更比一节甜”,就像你说它是“中国版特斯拉一样”,未来未至,谁能证伪呢?不过即便如此,造车新势力们“白送”的古怪行为背后原因还是显而易见的——这源于当前疯狂的市场赋予新能源车企业的定价模型:与传统汽车的周期股形象不同,市场对新能源车企的广阔未来充满想象,这背后的算计是,尽管造车新势力当下销量业绩欠奉,但长期赛道和高增长的逻辑没有打破,眼下的亏损并不重要,能够做出销量增长的趋势才是最重要的。(这里会有投资者反驳说,理想汽车并非如此,它上市前即实现了盈利。但如果你了解增程技术的历史与成本,就明白这种车型本应归到传统车企行列。如是,你不妨再去对比下本土传统车企7座SUV的定价,就理解销量有限、定价31.98万/辆的理想ONE为何有利润了。)因此,连卖带“送”,用最小的成本卖出最多的车,做出最好的增长曲线就成了最好的选择。每出货一辆车,蔚来、小鹏这些造车新势力估值都会增长1000万。亏钱大礼包只是业绩上亏损100%,但市值上却可以赚2000%。这道数学题在新势力们市值管理战术本中,早就算得清清楚楚。 一道文学题对于造车新势力来说,一旦销量直线上升,后续概率性问题难免越来越多。此时数学和心理学力所不能及之处,使得学习遣词造句的必要性就大大凸现出来。与很多新经济前辈一样,造车新势力们也十分热衷用新词来改变叙事,词用的玄妙,让投资者更认定这家公司是代表了新能源和人类的未来——哪怕产品线有缺陷,常常召回,只要你代表人类未来,你的估值杠杆就是1:20。比如:租电池叫Battery as a service(BaaS),这都已经不算什么汉语创新;理想给一辆混动车加一个增程式的名字混入新能源方阵,也仅仅是造车新势力的汉语言文学的小插曲。截至目前,对汉语言文学贡献最大的案例来自于特斯拉和理想:车辆出现断轴情况之后,特斯拉声称,是中国用户对车辆“滥用”,而不是质量问题;理想汽车则在断轴事故发生后,试图将车辆召回定义为“硬件升级”。在攸关人命的事故面前,新势力匪夷所思的脑回路令人毛骨悚然。图3:理想ONE碰撞事故导致断轴。来源:网络好在除了赚的盆满钵满的狂热投资者粉丝,市场中还有冷静的监管者:国家市场监管总局网站11月6日公布召回信息,理想汽车自即日起,召回生产日期在2019年11月14日至2020年6月1日的理想ONE电动汽车,共计10469辆。树不会长到天上“造车唯唯诺诺,造词重拳出击”的造车新势力,在它们当前的市值管理战术本里,写满了新数学和新文学的笔记,一切都为了1:20的市值增长杠杆。但树不能长到天上,蔚来、小鹏和理想当然也不能。对于沉浮于赚钱效应五彩泡沫里快一年的投资者而言,不止是2020年,2021年更要对这些新能源车企好一些——因为它们很大概率将比较难过:2020年造词这种文学幻术已经被戳破;及至2021年,随着那些有真实业绩的龙头——特斯拉和比亚迪们盈利增速的夯实,电动车企的估值模型,势必将逐渐由1:20倍回报率的PS(市销率)模式转向PE(市盈率),届时故事再好(前有国家产业意志开道,背靠BTAM金主护航)也要有人买单。平心而论,在一波牛市中,究竟谁在裸泳是根本看不出来的。但如果始终看不出来谁将是这场宴会买单者,也许我们应该清楚意识到,自己就是买单的那个人。 读后请“五连”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391350378,"gmtCreate":1606489544394,"gmtModify":1703843380496,"author":{"id":"3534202939213067","authorId":"3534202939213067","name":"cinternet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2d17ab303c4d2a6ea46a05ad7c1d76","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534202939213067","authorIdStr":"3534202939213067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>庄家不放弃很难砸下来的。只要庄家主动弃权做多,转而空,才有可能。但是平均成本还没上来,估计平均成本45就可以开始砸了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>庄家不放弃很难砸下来的。只要庄家主动弃权做多,转而空,才有可能。但是平均成本还没上来,估计平均成本45就可以开始砸了。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$庄家不放弃很难砸下来的。只要庄家主动弃权做多,转而空,才有可能。但是平均成本还没上来,估计平均成本45就可以开始砸了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391350378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391920397,"gmtCreate":1606471096919,"gmtModify":1703843229565,"author":{"id":"3534202939213067","authorId":"3534202939213067","name":"cinternet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2d17ab303c4d2a6ea46a05ad7c1d76","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534202939213067","authorIdStr":"3534202939213067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析的很合理。不过免不得被那些高位买票的人抨击,不过无所谓。","listText":"分析的很合理。不过免不得被那些高位买票的人抨击,不过无所谓。","text":"分析的很合理。不过免不得被那些高位买票的人抨击,不过无所谓。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391920397","repostId":"1112129818","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393238788,"gmtCreate":1606311329044,"gmtModify":1703842483006,"author":{"id":"3534202939213067","authorId":"3534202939213067","name":"cinternet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2d17ab303c4d2a6ea46a05ad7c1d76","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534202939213067","authorIdStr":"3534202939213067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>说真的,我感觉还会被拉回去,看得我很复杂。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>说真的,我感觉还会被拉回去,看得我很复杂。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$说真的,我感觉还会被拉回去,看得我很复杂。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393238788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494568754129544","authorId":"3494568754129544","name":"哥一个字","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494568754129544","authorIdStr":"3494568754129544"},"content":"大佬品一下我这个模型。我首先找规律,发现美股每个月出现一条长龙大龙,上上个月是特斯拉,上个月是晶科能源。然后在10.30号时,我看美股大盘,当时大盘强势上涨跳水下跌交替,可以说完全不知道大盘下一秒会怎么样,但是在大盘强势上涨时,我理解为来水了,就是来钱了,那么钱往哪里灌呢,我找到对应时间特斯拉直线拉升,原来水直往新能源汽车灌。结合时间也差不多了,月末月初可能是出龙了,那么11月龙应该是新能源车","text":"大佬品一下我这个模型。我首先找规律,发现美股每个月出现一条长龙大龙,上上个月是特斯拉,上个月是晶科能源。然后在10.30号时,我看美股大盘,当时大盘强势上涨跳水下跌交替,可以说完全不知道大盘下一秒会怎么样,但是在大盘强势上涨时,我理解为来水了,就是来钱了,那么钱往哪里灌呢,我找到对应时间特斯拉直线拉升,原来水直往新能源汽车灌。结合时间也差不多了,月末月初可能是出龙了,那么11月龙应该是新能源车","html":"大佬品一下我这个模型。我首先找规律,发现美股每个月出现一条长龙大龙,上上个月是特斯拉,上个月是晶科能源。然后在10.30号时,我看美股大盘,当时大盘强势上涨跳水下跌交替,可以说完全不知道大盘下一秒会怎么样,但是在大盘强势上涨时,我理解为来水了,就是来钱了,那么钱往哪里灌呢,我找到对应时间特斯拉直线拉升,原来水直往新能源汽车灌。结合时间也差不多了,月末月初可能是出龙了,那么11月龙应该是新能源车"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393631001,"gmtCreate":1606296873103,"gmtModify":1703842339561,"author":{"id":"3534202939213067","authorId":"3534202939213067","name":"cinternet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2d17ab303c4d2a6ea46a05ad7c1d76","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534202939213067","authorIdStr":"3534202939213067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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