StevenZ的个人主页 - 老虎社区

StevenZ

StevenZ

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2主题

0勋章

2021-01-20

$蔚来(NIO)$李斌不讲武德，来骗来偷袭，我69岁的老韭菜

2021-02-04

$AMD(AMD)$投资按摩店需要谨慎[打脸] [打脸]

2021-02-01

$AMD(AMD)$今天依然不行呢

2021-01-20

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$You guys merging? CCIV! You guys gonna merge?? You guys merging LUCID! baby!! Ahhhh come on! CCIV! CCIV!!!

2021-04-29

只要天天喊跌总有蒙对的时候

准确预测美股去年崩盘的大佬：清算之日即将到来

2021-01-27

$AMD(AMD)$每次发布会都会跌，每次财报都会跌[打脸]

2021-01-14

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$好家伙

2021-02-09

$百度(BIDU)$阿度一千亿了

2021-06-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$黄老板🐂🍺

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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CCIV!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337637925","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100416229,"gmtCreate":1619628701861,"gmtModify":1619628701861,"author":{"id":"3530000791615216","authorId":"3530000791615216","name":"StevenZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6d38f1d0df1b63332accdbe21c4449","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530000791615216","authorIdStr":"3530000791615216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要天天喊跌总有蒙对的时候","listText":"只要天天喊跌总有蒙对的时候","text":"只要天天喊跌总有蒙对的时候","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100416229","repostId":"1137165086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137165086","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619584427,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137165086?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 12:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"准确预测美股去年崩盘的大佬：清算之日即将到来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137165086","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。\n一年多以前，一位华尔街策略师成功预见到了2020年美股大崩盘，而现在，他发出了警告，称“清算之日即将到来”，并预测股市未来很多年内都很难提供","content":"<p>投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。</p>\n<p>一年多以前，一位华尔街策略师成功预见到了2020年美股大崩盘，而现在，他发出了警告，称“清算之日即将到来”，并预测股市未来很多年内都很难提供得体的回报。</p>\n<p>在亨里奇（Sven Henrich）看来，一切都已经再清楚不过了——<b>美股市场就是处在一场实实在在的泡沫当中。</b>这不单单是感觉，更是他研究了一系列指标之后所得出的结论。</p>\n<p>美国股市总市值对美国国内生产总值的比率，即所谓<b>“巴菲特指标”，现在已经来到了历史最高点，甚至超过了互联网泡沫巅峰时期。</b></p>\n<p><b>标普500指数超过95%的成份股目前价格都在其相应的两百天移动平均线以上。</b>换言之，不管股市每天的波动多么纷乱，不时经历暂时的回挫，这些股票都是在明确的上涨趋势之下。</p>\n<p>另外一个类似的迹象是，标普500指数已经远离了移动平均线，而且突破了其布林带的顶端。</p>\n<p>然而，与此同时，美股的基本面其实并没有前述价格走势所显示的那么理想。比如，在2020年年底时，罗素3000指数当中大约40%的企业净所得都是负数。亨里奇在近期的一次网络广播当中表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “我还可以列出很多的例子，不过大家知道大致如此就好。人们已经深深沉浸到奇特的投资行为当中，历史已经证明，作为这种行为根基的信念是无法自我实现的，因此这行为迟早要受到严厉的惩罚。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>当然，这都是美联储的“功劳”。他们不断向市场注入海量的现金，而且还一再赌咒发誓，说他们会继续这样做下去，这就使得每一位投资者都成为了2020年的赢家，让他们高度确信自己是不可能输掉的，于是他们就更加大胆地去追捧日益高企的资产价格。</p>\n<p>不过，正如亨里奇所警告的，这样的派对是不可能无休止开下去的。虽然泡沫到底何时破灭，无人能够准确预言，但是那一天的到来只是迟早的问题。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “你们可以不顾增税、不顾债务、不顾估值，但是归根结底，不顾这些都是将你们自己置于风险之下。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>他警告说，“清算之日即将到来。”</p>\n<p>亨里奇还表示，伴随疫苗日益铺开，财政刺激力度持续提升，联储未必就会一直保持对市场这种全力支持的态度。他指出，在当前的氛围当中，像美国银行这样的机构已经觉得自己的财务高度安全，甚至开始大量回购股票了。</p>\n<p>2020年2月20日，即美股市场来到上一轮牛市高点前后，亨里奇在自己公司的网站上写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在我看来，市场已经来到了2000年以来最危险的境地。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>果然，在那之后大约一个月的时间里，伴随疫情的突然爆发，标普500指数下跌了近35%。</p>\n<p>然而，局面随之改变，伴随市场强势反弹，过去十二个月的时间当中，投资者的乐观程度称得上是到了令人瞠目结舌的地步，去年11月疫苗利好消息传出之后尤甚。4月又是一个美股强势的月份，月初以来标普500指数上涨了大约5%，不断创下新高。</p>\n<p>这种情况下，华尔街的专家们越发谨慎起来。<b>日前，美国银行发出警告说，投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。</b>他们的标普500指数目标点位较之当下的实际点位要低了大约9%。美银首席美股策略师萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）在4月14日发布的研究报告当中写道：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在市场情绪欣快症气味日益浓烈、估值高企、刺激达到顶峰的情况下，我们持续认定，市场对这些利好消息的消化已经过度了。我们依然看好美国经济的前景，但并不看好标普500指数。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>法国兴业银行策略师爱德华兹（Albert Edwards）也警告说，<b>众多指标都显示市场已经涨过了头。</b>虽然其他多数观察家都不曾预言将有大规模的抛售发生，但是主流观点在标普500指数今年还能涨多少这一点上，看法确实是相当保守的。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，投资者的股票投资难度也就大幅度提升了。伴随经济逐渐重启，消费者打开已经是满满的钱包，支出预计将大为增长，但问题在于，这一利好也已经提前被市场看到和消化了。</p>\n<p>正如摩根士丹利的威尔森（Mike Wilson）所说，<b>在这种环境当中，选股能力是至关重要的。</b></p>\n<p>可是，大盘是否还有进一步前进的余地？美股涨势看上去似乎是不可阻止，已经一再让熊派成为被嘲笑的对象，也许这种表现还会继续下去。</p>\n<p><b>看涨阵营最主要的根据之一就在于，在利率低迷的情况下，股票的高估值也就自然拥有了合理性。</b>可是，大家都已经见到，十年期国债收益率突破1.5%，当即就给投资者造成了不小的惊吓，让一些重要的成长型股票在抛售当中被重创，那么，若是联储开始吹风货币政策趋向紧缩的前景，那时候又会发生什么？</p>\n<p>美股的下一站到底是哪里，只有时间才能给出最终的答案，但是毫无疑问，与六个月前相比，人们现在有更多的理由转向谨慎。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n准确预测美股去年崩盘的大佬：清算之日即将到来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-28 12:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73770><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。\n一年多以前，一位华尔街策略师成功预见到了2020年美股大崩盘，而现在，他发出了警告，称“清算之日即将到来”，并预测股市未来很多年内都很难提供得体的回报。\n在亨里奇（Sven Henrich）看来，一切都已经再清楚不过了——美股市场就是处在一场实实在在的泡沫当中。这不单单是感觉，更是他研究了一系列指标之后所得出的结论。\n美国股市总市值对美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73770\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73770","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137165086","content_text":"投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。\n一年多以前，一位华尔街策略师成功预见到了2020年美股大崩盘，而现在，他发出了警告，称“清算之日即将到来”，并预测股市未来很多年内都很难提供得体的回报。\n在亨里奇（Sven Henrich）看来，一切都已经再清楚不过了——美股市场就是处在一场实实在在的泡沫当中。这不单单是感觉，更是他研究了一系列指标之后所得出的结论。\n美国股市总市值对美国国内生产总值的比率，即所谓“巴菲特指标”，现在已经来到了历史最高点，甚至超过了互联网泡沫巅峰时期。\n标普500指数超过95%的成份股目前价格都在其相应的两百天移动平均线以上。换言之，不管股市每天的波动多么纷乱，不时经历暂时的回挫，这些股票都是在明确的上涨趋势之下。\n另外一个类似的迹象是，标普500指数已经远离了移动平均线，而且突破了其布林带的顶端。\n然而，与此同时，美股的基本面其实并没有前述价格走势所显示的那么理想。比如，在2020年年底时，罗素3000指数当中大约40%的企业净所得都是负数。亨里奇在近期的一次网络广播当中表示：\n\n “我还可以列出很多的例子，不过大家知道大致如此就好。人们已经深深沉浸到奇特的投资行为当中，历史已经证明，作为这种行为根基的信念是无法自我实现的，因此这行为迟早要受到严厉的惩罚。”\n\n当然，这都是美联储的“功劳”。他们不断向市场注入海量的现金，而且还一再赌咒发誓，说他们会继续这样做下去，这就使得每一位投资者都成为了2020年的赢家，让他们高度确信自己是不可能输掉的，于是他们就更加大胆地去追捧日益高企的资产价格。\n不过，正如亨里奇所警告的，这样的派对是不可能无休止开下去的。虽然泡沫到底何时破灭，无人能够准确预言，但是那一天的到来只是迟早的问题。\n\n “你们可以不顾增税、不顾债务、不顾估值，但是归根结底，不顾这些都是将你们自己置于风险之下。”\n\n他警告说，“清算之日即将到来。”\n亨里奇还表示，伴随疫苗日益铺开，财政刺激力度持续提升，联储未必就会一直保持对市场这种全力支持的态度。他指出，在当前的氛围当中，像美国银行这样的机构已经觉得自己的财务高度安全，甚至开始大量回购股票了。\n2020年2月20日，即美股市场来到上一轮牛市高点前后，亨里奇在自己公司的网站上写道：\n\n “在我看来，市场已经来到了2000年以来最危险的境地。”\n\n果然，在那之后大约一个月的时间里，伴随疫情的突然爆发，标普500指数下跌了近35%。\n然而，局面随之改变，伴随市场强势反弹，过去十二个月的时间当中，投资者的乐观程度称得上是到了令人瞠目结舌的地步，去年11月疫苗利好消息传出之后尤甚。4月又是一个美股强势的月份，月初以来标普500指数上涨了大约5%，不断创下新高。\n这种情况下，华尔街的专家们越发谨慎起来。日前，美国银行发出警告说，投资者应该对估值、情绪、风险偏好等的过度扩张给予足够关注。他们的标普500指数目标点位较之当下的实际点位要低了大约9%。美银首席美股策略师萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）在4月14日发布的研究报告当中写道：\n\n “在市场情绪欣快症气味日益浓烈、估值高企、刺激达到顶峰的情况下，我们持续认定，市场对这些利好消息的消化已经过度了。我们依然看好美国经济的前景，但并不看好标普500指数。”\n\n法国兴业银行策略师爱德华兹（Albert Edwards）也警告说，众多指标都显示市场已经涨过了头。虽然其他多数观察家都不曾预言将有大规模的抛售发生，但是主流观点在标普500指数今年还能涨多少这一点上，看法确实是相当保守的。\n在这种情况下，投资者的股票投资难度也就大幅度提升了。伴随经济逐渐重启，消费者打开已经是满满的钱包，支出预计将大为增长，但问题在于，这一利好也已经提前被市场看到和消化了。\n正如摩根士丹利的威尔森（Mike Wilson）所说，在这种环境当中，选股能力是至关重要的。\n可是，大盘是否还有进一步前进的余地？美股涨势看上去似乎是不可阻止，已经一再让熊派成为被嘲笑的对象，也许这种表现还会继续下去。\n看涨阵营最主要的根据之一就在于，在利率低迷的情况下，股票的高估值也就自然拥有了合理性。可是，大家都已经见到，十年期国债收益率突破1.5%，当即就给投资者造成了不小的惊吓，让一些重要的成长型股票在抛售当中被重创，那么，若是联储开始吹风货币政策趋向紧缩的前景，那时候又会发生什么？\n美股的下一站到底是哪里，只有时间才能给出最终的答案，但是毫无疑问，与六个月前相比，人们现在有更多的理由转向谨慎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311929179,"gmtCreate":1611759880191,"gmtModify":1703753365438,"author":{"id":"3530000791615216","authorId":"3530000791615216","name":"StevenZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6d38f1d0df1b63332accdbe21c4449","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530000791615216","authorIdStr":"3530000791615216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>每次发布会都会跌，每次财报都会跌[打脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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