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旭虎

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2021-03-10

大骗子

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-04

$一起教育科技(YQ)$今晚翻倍

2020-09-29

一本正经的胡说八道，第一波还没过去，还反扑

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-20

那就做空吧，不用废话

假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”

2020-03-07

傻13文章

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$中国飞鹤(06186)$**

2019-12-23

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2019-12-23

$澳优(01717)$为何如此疯狂

2019-12-18

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2019-11-25

$中国飞鹤(06186)$早盘抢少了，手慢了

2019-11-12

$中国飞鹤(06186)$赚点买肉钱[开心][开心][开心]

2019-11-12

$中国飞鹤(06186)$赚点买肉钱[开心][开心][开心]

2019-10-28

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2019-07-04

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$趣头条(QTT)$ 短线之友

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">$一起教育科技(YQ)$</a>今晚翻倍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">$一起教育科技(YQ)$</a>今晚翻倍","text":"$一起教育科技(YQ)$今晚翻倍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d0074951593ba7973f754a51d705f6","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396870027","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974753807,"gmtCreate":1601337787409,"gmtModify":1703823991978,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一本正经的胡说八道，第一波还没过去，还反扑","listText":"一本正经的胡说八道，第一波还没过去，还反扑","text":"一本正经的胡说八道，第一波还没过去，还反扑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974753807","repostId":"1188582814","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959433926,"gmtCreate":1589981736465,"gmtModify":1704191368886,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那就做空吧，不用废话","listText":"那就做空吧，不用废话","text":"那就做空吧，不用废话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959433926","repostId":"1117176892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117176892","pubTimestamp":1589938548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117176892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-20 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117176892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是","content":"<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。</p>\n<p>在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。</p>\n<p>从好的方面来看，5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查，38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时，投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。</p>\n<p>过去两个月里，全球风险资产飙升，得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施，以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施，投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而，资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明，由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害，许多投资者都远离股市。</p>\n<p>最新的美国银行调查显示，现金水平小幅下降至5.7%，但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平，而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示，基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位，对欧元区股票是空头仓位。</p>\n<p>由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位，调查显示，投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。</p>\n<p>鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产，美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示，对冲基金本月增持股票，达到34%的净多头仓位，使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。</p>\n<p>除了美银的调查，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>调查也显示，超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。</p>\n<p>德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷，搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示，57%的机构投资者认为，后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规，每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07bedfaaa8a79154768b548805dc969\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"394\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"></p>\n<p>专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后，工作效率也在提高，与上次调查相比(42%)，仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1799e3fc4fec032115b9327f28e33fc8\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态，只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>\n<p>受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度：74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗，只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。</p>\n<p>但专业投资者普遍认为，疫苗在短期无法上市，仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。</p>\n<p>机构投资者同时认为，因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续：48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续，另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。</p>\n<p>在市场走势方面，机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌，另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-20 09:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1117176892","content_text":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。\n从好的方面来看，5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查，38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时，投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。\n过去两个月里，全球风险资产飙升，得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施，以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施，投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而，资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明，由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害，许多投资者都远离股市。\n最新的美国银行调查显示，现金水平小幅下降至5.7%，但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平，而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示，基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位，对欧元区股票是空头仓位。\n由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位，调查显示，投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。\n鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产，美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示，对冲基金本月增持股票，达到34%的净多头仓位，使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。\n除了美银的调查，德意志银行调查也显示，超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。\n德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷，搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示，57%的机构投资者认为，后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规，每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。\n\n专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后，工作效率也在提高，与上次调查相比(42%)，仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。\n\n机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态，只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。\n\n受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度：74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗，只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。\n但专业投资者普遍认为，疫苗在短期无法上市，仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。\n机构投资者同时认为，因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续：48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续，另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。\n在市场走势方面，机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌，另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981122383,"gmtCreate":1583590387342,"gmtModify":1704350315595,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"傻13文章","listText":"傻13文章","text":"傻13文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981122383","repostId":"2017589375","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2017589375","pubTimestamp":1583562420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2017589375?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-07 14:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"研发费用占营收1% 飞鹤奶粉搞起“昂贵营销”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2017589375","media":"经济导报","summary":"2日，中国飞鹤(06186.HK)旗下2家生产企业获得3个品系9个配方注册。业内人士认为，目前婴幼儿奶粉产品正处于消费升级的风口，飞鹤此次注册配方，应是产品线丰富、预备乘势而上之举。经济导报记者连日来...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>\r\n                原标题：研发费用占营收1% 飞鹤奶粉搞起“昂贵营销”\r\n            </p>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=116.06186&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　2日，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06186\">中国飞鹤</a></span><span></span>(06186.HK)旗下2家生产<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/企业\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">企业</span>获得3个品系9个配方注册。业内人士认为，目前婴幼儿奶粉<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/产品\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">产品</span>正处于<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/消费\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">消费</span>升级的风口，飞鹤此次注册配方，应是<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/产品线\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">产品线</span>丰富、预备乘势而上之举。</p>\n<p>　　经济导报记者连日来调查发现，包括国产<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/品牌\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">品牌</span>和进口奶粉在内，目前整个婴幼儿奶粉行业的营销费用普遍过高，继而影响了研发投入。飞鹤也不例外，其<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/招股说明书\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">招股说明书</span>曾提及研发费用仅占营收的1%左右，这与一次9个配方获注册对比鲜明。</p>\n<p>　　“昂贵营销”重压之下，企业能否<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/借\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">借</span><span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/消费升级\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">消费升级</span>突围？奶业专家、内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院院长乔光华对经济导报记者表示，企业能否乘“风”而上的关键，是稳定而持续的研发投入；企业也可以加大特色产品研发，实现“以点带面”式的突破。</p>\n<p>　　消费升级奶粉业迎来风口</p>\n<p>　　3月5日，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/web/r/061865\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">中国飞鹤</span>(06186.HK)以11.800港元收盘，比上日收盘价高了0.080港元，总<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/市值\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">市值</span>达到1054.13亿港元，这支港股历史上首发市值最大的乳品企业，股价表现非常坚挺。</p>\n<p>　　公开披露信息显示，飞鹤2019年上半年实现营收58.92亿元，还实现了净收净利双增长。</p>\n<p>　　不光是以飞鹤为代表的中国品牌，根据上个月刚刚披露的财报，国际婴幼儿奶粉行业四大巨头雀巢、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培</a></span><span></span>、达能、美赞臣2019年<span>业绩</span>均全线飘红，中国<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/市场\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">市场</span>更是贡献良多。</p>\n<p>　　为何多家奶企在2019年的表现都不错？乔光华对经济导报记者分析，主要是因为2018年“史上最严”奶粉政策的实施；还有人们生活水平的不断提升与消费能力的增强，消费者对婴幼儿奶粉<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/产品价格\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">产品价格</span>的敏感度下降；再加上“80、90后”成为母婴消费<span>主力</span>，为人父母更关注宝宝的智力发育、抵抗力、营养吸收、肠道健康等原因。</p>\n<p>　　“行业政策的影响，消费群体的改变，消费理念和消费者健康意识的提升，这些都驱动着婴幼儿奶粉消费的升级。”乔光华说。</p>\n<p>　　在此之前，飞鹤已经获得12个品系36个配方的注册。业内普遍认为，此次9个配方获注册，其产品线将更丰富、更能满足消费者多元化需求。</p>\n<p>　　<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/广告\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">广告</span>停两天销售额立马下滑</p>\n<p>　　飞鹤是2019年11月13日在港交所上市的。</p>\n<p>　　在招股书上，飞鹤的业绩可谓惹眼：2016年、2017年、2018年，营收分别为37.24亿元、58.87亿元、103.92亿元，<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/利润\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">利润</span>分别为4.06亿元、11.6亿元、22.42亿元。</p>\n<p>　　然而在2017年、2018年和2019年前3个月，飞鹤的销售及经销开支分别达到21.39亿元、36.61亿元和6.65亿元，占营收比例分别为36.33%、35.23%和24.13%。</p>\n<p>　　同为国产上市品牌，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002570\">贝因美</a></span><span></span>(002570.SZ)营销费用占营收比例，更是超过了40%。</p>\n<p>　　东方艾格资深乳业<span>分析师</span>陈连芳曾指出，有段时间小包装奶粉到进口商手中每罐的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/价格\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">价格</span>不足100元，而同期终端价格则至少为200-300元，<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/广告费\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">广告费</span>用、渠道费用都是非常大的开支。</p>\n<p>　　与庞大的营销开支对比鲜明的，是2016年至2018年，飞鹤乳业的研发<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/成本\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">成本</span>分别只有0.14亿元、0.15亿元和1.09亿元，2018年研发投入占营收比为1.05%；前文提到的<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/sz002570.html\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">贝因美</span>，虽然2018年优化了33.88%的营销费用，但同步削减了61.30%的研发费用。</p>\n<p>　　“我也希望将更多的钱投入到研发上，但现实是央视广告只要停两天，销售额立马就得下降。”乔光华如是转述一些奶企老总们的想法。与此同时，研发投入对销量却没有立竿见影的影响，“两相比较，奶企自然更倾向于将有限的资金投入到营销上去。”</p>\n<p>　　研发投入“好钢”要用在“刀刃”上</p>\n<p>　　飞鹤一次9个配方获注册，这与1%的研发投入占比是否匹配？截至发稿，飞鹤方面暂未对经济导报记者回应。</p>\n<p>　　一份名为《2019年中国购物者<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/报告\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">报告</span>》显示，在过去3年里，婴幼儿奶粉的增长主要来自高端和超高端产品；而且就<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/市场份额\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">市场份额</span>来看，高端化仍有潜力。</p>\n<p>　　乔光华认为，高端化正是前述婴幼儿奶粉消费升级的体现；但奶企如何乘上消费升级的“东风”，实现婴幼儿奶粉产品的高端化？“其根本还是在研发。短期内，消费者可能会被品牌打造的概念吸引；但长期来看，只有持续稳定的研发，才能将概念一一落实，从而让产品受到市场的认可。”</p>\n<p>　　青岛一奶企人士表示，在投入有限的现实之下，研发可以集中向某一特色产品领域攻关。</p>\n<p>\r\n                (责任编辑：DF120)\r\n            </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n研发费用占营收1% 飞鹤奶粉搞起“昂贵营销”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-07 14:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202003071409793879.html><strong>经济导报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：研发费用占营收1% 飞鹤奶粉搞起“昂贵营销”\r\n            \n　　2日，中国飞鹤(06186.HK)旗下2家生产企业获得3个品系9个配方注册。业内人士认为，目前婴幼儿奶粉产品正处于消费升级的风口，飞鹤此次注册配方，应是产品线丰富、预备乘势而上之举。\n　　经济导报记者连日来调查发现，包括国产品牌和进口奶粉在内，目前整个婴幼儿奶粉行业的营销费用普遍过高，继而影响了研发投入。飞鹤也不...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202003071409793879.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f874ded00c644297784368a7af94c8ae","relate_stocks":{"002570":"贝因美","06186":"中国飞鹤"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202003071409793879.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2017589375","content_text":"原标题：研发费用占营收1% 飞鹤奶粉搞起“昂贵营销”\r\n            \n　　2日，中国飞鹤(06186.HK)旗下2家生产企业获得3个品系9个配方注册。业内人士认为，目前婴幼儿奶粉产品正处于消费升级的风口，飞鹤此次注册配方，应是产品线丰富、预备乘势而上之举。\n　　经济导报记者连日来调查发现，包括国产品牌和进口奶粉在内，目前整个婴幼儿奶粉行业的营销费用普遍过高，继而影响了研发投入。飞鹤也不例外，其招股说明书曾提及研发费用仅占营收的1%左右，这与一次9个配方获注册对比鲜明。\n　　“昂贵营销”重压之下，企业能否借消费升级突围？奶业专家、内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院院长乔光华对经济导报记者表示，企业能否乘“风”而上的关键，是稳定而持续的研发投入；企业也可以加大特色产品研发，实现“以点带面”式的突破。\n　　消费升级奶粉业迎来风口\n　　3月5日，中国飞鹤(06186.HK)以11.800港元收盘，比上日收盘价高了0.080港元，总市值达到1054.13亿港元，这支港股历史上首发市值最大的乳品企业，股价表现非常坚挺。\n　　公开披露信息显示，飞鹤2019年上半年实现营收58.92亿元，还实现了净收净利双增长。\n　　不光是以飞鹤为代表的中国品牌，根据上个月刚刚披露的财报，国际婴幼儿奶粉行业四大巨头雀巢、雅培、达能、美赞臣2019年业绩均全线飘红，中国市场更是贡献良多。\n　　为何多家奶企在2019年的表现都不错？乔光华对经济导报记者分析，主要是因为2018年“史上最严”奶粉政策的实施；还有人们生活水平的不断提升与消费能力的增强，消费者对婴幼儿奶粉产品价格的敏感度下降；再加上“80、90后”成为母婴消费主力，为人父母更关注宝宝的智力发育、抵抗力、营养吸收、肠道健康等原因。\n　　“行业政策的影响，消费群体的改变，消费理念和消费者健康意识的提升，这些都驱动着婴幼儿奶粉消费的升级。”乔光华说。\n　　在此之前，飞鹤已经获得12个品系36个配方的注册。业内普遍认为，此次9个配方获注册，其产品线将更丰富、更能满足消费者多元化需求。\n　　广告停两天销售额立马下滑\n　　飞鹤是2019年11月13日在港交所上市的。\n　　在招股书上，飞鹤的业绩可谓惹眼：2016年、2017年、2018年，营收分别为37.24亿元、58.87亿元、103.92亿元，利润分别为4.06亿元、11.6亿元、22.42亿元。\n　　然而在2017年、2018年和2019年前3个月，飞鹤的销售及经销开支分别达到21.39亿元、36.61亿元和6.65亿元，占营收比例分别为36.33%、35.23%和24.13%。\n　　同为国产上市品牌，贝因美(002570.SZ)营销费用占营收比例，更是超过了40%。\n　　东方艾格资深乳业分析师陈连芳曾指出，有段时间小包装奶粉到进口商手中每罐的价格不足100元，而同期终端价格则至少为200-300元，广告费用、渠道费用都是非常大的开支。\n　　与庞大的营销开支对比鲜明的，是2016年至2018年，飞鹤乳业的研发成本分别只有0.14亿元、0.15亿元和1.09亿元，2018年研发投入占营收比为1.05%；前文提到的贝因美，虽然2018年优化了33.88%的营销费用，但同步削减了61.30%的研发费用。\n　　“我也希望将更多的钱投入到研发上，但现实是央视广告只要停两天，销售额立马就得下降。”乔光华如是转述一些奶企老总们的想法。与此同时，研发投入对销量却没有立竿见影的影响，“两相比较，奶企自然更倾向于将有限的资金投入到营销上去。”\n　　研发投入“好钢”要用在“刀刃”上\n　　飞鹤一次9个配方获注册，这与1%的研发投入占比是否匹配？截至发稿，飞鹤方面暂未对经济导报记者回应。\n　　一份名为《2019年中国购物者报告》显示，在过去3年里，婴幼儿奶粉的增长主要来自高端和超高端产品；而且就市场份额来看，高端化仍有潜力。\n　　乔光华认为，高端化正是前述婴幼儿奶粉消费升级的体现；但奶企如何乘上消费升级的“东风”，实现婴幼儿奶粉产品的高端化？“其根本还是在研发。短期内，消费者可能会被品牌打造的概念吸引；但长期来看，只有持续稳定的研发，才能将概念一一落实，从而让产品受到市场的认可。”\n　　青岛一奶企人士表示，在投入有限的现实之下，研发可以集中向某一特色产品领域攻关。\n\r\n 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19:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118267226","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上","content":"<p>今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。</p><h2><b> Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:</b></h2><p>美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。</p><p>CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。</p><p>美元短暂反弹后将下跌。</p><p>纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶。</p><p>下次金融市场危机到来VIX会超过100。</p><p>黄金经过昨日跌至每盎司1680美元应该已经见底。</p><p>目前最便宜的资产是农场。</p><h2>具体来看：</h2><p><b>人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的</b></p><p>Gundlach指出，在美国居民个人收入构成中，来自政府的补贴收入占比已经达到27%，而刺激计划还需要继续进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c2adffa4-0bb1-43d0-832e-31902660afac.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>这也使得美国的预算赤字已经达到创纪录的GDP的16.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/33661b16-c8a7-4cf2-a593-86728ce9f2f6.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>对于给年收入15万美元的人一堆钱的美国刺激计划，Gundlach将其批评扩大到更广泛的债务货币化。同时警告说人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。</p><blockquote>最大的问题是我们已经完全沉迷于这些刺激计划。尽管人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的，但我担心我们会看到对无休止刺激的一些实际需求。</blockquote><p><b>美元反弹后将下跌</b></p><p>接下来，在谈到美元时，Gundlach表示，尽管他最近几个月一直看涨美元，但他预计美元在短暂反弹后将下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6ff6600d-5efd-48f1-98c7-9d67b61ae58c.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>VIX指数在下一次经济低迷期间将超过100</b></p><p>对于股市，Gundlach提到了“超级六大”科技股，并表示这些股票的估值与疫情前的水平相比，高得惊人。</p><p>他展示了飙升的市盈率，称这些科技股的远期市盈率升至19倍，但没有1999年那么高。Gundlach表示，在美国总统乔•拜登谈论提高企业税率的问题上，一旦该法案纳入估值，市盈率可能会更高。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/8398291d-0b4c-4ae2-bc7b-737924619736.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gundlach警告说，纳斯达克指数可能会出现2000- 2003年那样的下跌，可能已经见顶。另外，Gundlach还做出了一个令人震惊的预测:“VIX指数在下一次衰退中将超过100。”</p><p><b>通货膨胀</b></p><p>造成“崩盘”的原因是什么？</p><p>Gundlach指出，也许是通货膨胀。在基数效应和刺激措施的支撑下，他预计今年夏天的几个月整体通货膨胀率将超过3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/15cf3a7d-141a-4dc6-a3b1-60ee16a958d1.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gundlach认为情况可能会变得更糟: 他将CPI与ISM价格进行了比较，说人们可以合理地预测总体通胀率可能会超过4%。</p><blockquote>这真的会吓坏债券市场。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bdbddb24-8f40-4ca1-ae13-5082a1391ce0.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>黄金可能反弹</b></p><p>Gundlach提到金价昨日跌至每盎司1680美元，尽管此前Gundlach对黄金持中性态度。现在，他表示这可能是本轮黄金周期的低点，黄金在长期内可能反弹。</p><blockquote>因为抛售已经相当强劲。</blockquote><p>DoubleLine的模型显示，黄金大约处于公允价值。</p><p>另外，他提到金/铜的比率表明，美10年期国债的收益率应该在3%，并预计长期收益率将出现温和的下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/fd9e3f26-a643-4268-a6ab-ab204d3055bb.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>美联储会欢迎通胀上升</b></p><p>在过去几年里，美债的主要买家是美联储，Gundlach认为美债\"缺乏强劲的需求\"，并指出最近七年期美债灾难性的遭抛售是进一步的证据。</p><p>在Gundlach看来，美联储不仅不担心通胀上升，而且会欢迎通胀上升。因为负利率将使联邦债务更容易管理。</p><p><b>最便宜的资产是农田</b></p><p>在回答当前世界上最便宜的资产是什么的问题时，他的答案是：农田。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 19:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118267226","content_text":"今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶。下次金融市场危机到来VIX会超过100。黄金经过昨日跌至每盎司1680美元应该已经见底。目前最便宜的资产是农场。具体来看：人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的Gundlach指出，在美国居民个人收入构成中，来自政府的补贴收入占比已经达到27%，而刺激计划还需要继续进行。这也使得美国的预算赤字已经达到创纪录的GDP的16.2%。对于给年收入15万美元的人一堆钱的美国刺激计划，Gundlach将其批评扩大到更广泛的债务货币化。同时警告说人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。最大的问题是我们已经完全沉迷于这些刺激计划。尽管人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的，但我担心我们会看到对无休止刺激的一些实际需求。美元反弹后将下跌接下来，在谈到美元时，Gundlach表示，尽管他最近几个月一直看涨美元，但他预计美元在短暂反弹后将下跌。VIX指数在下一次经济低迷期间将超过100对于股市，Gundlach提到了“超级六大”科技股，并表示这些股票的估值与疫情前的水平相比，高得惊人。他展示了飙升的市盈率，称这些科技股的远期市盈率升至19倍，但没有1999年那么高。Gundlach表示，在美国总统乔•拜登谈论提高企业税率的问题上，一旦该法案纳入估值，市盈率可能会更高。Gundlach警告说，纳斯达克指数可能会出现2000- 2003年那样的下跌，可能已经见顶。另外，Gundlach还做出了一个令人震惊的预测:“VIX指数在下一次衰退中将超过100。”通货膨胀造成“崩盘”的原因是什么？Gundlach指出，也许是通货膨胀。在基数效应和刺激措施的支撑下，他预计今年夏天的几个月整体通货膨胀率将超过3%。Gundlach认为情况可能会变得更糟: 他将CPI与ISM价格进行了比较，说人们可以合理地预测总体通胀率可能会超过4%。这真的会吓坏债券市场。黄金可能反弹Gundlach提到金价昨日跌至每盎司1680美元，尽管此前Gundlach对黄金持中性态度。现在，他表示这可能是本轮黄金周期的低点，黄金在长期内可能反弹。因为抛售已经相当强劲。DoubleLine的模型显示，黄金大约处于公允价值。另外，他提到金/铜的比率表明，美10年期国债的收益率应该在3%，并预计长期收益率将出现温和的下跌。美联储会欢迎通胀上升在过去几年里，美债的主要买家是美联储，Gundlach认为美债\"缺乏强劲的需求\"，并指出最近七年期美债灾难性的遭抛售是进一步的证据。在Gundlach看来，美联储不仅不担心通胀上升，而且会欢迎通胀上升。因为负利率将使联邦债务更容易管理。最便宜的资产是农田在回答当前世界上最便宜的资产是什么的问题时，他的答案是：农田。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974753807,"gmtCreate":1601337787409,"gmtModify":1703823991978,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一本正经的胡说八道，第一波还没过去，还反扑","listText":"一本正经的胡说八道，第一波还没过去，还反扑","text":"一本正经的胡说八道，第一波还没过去，还反扑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974753807","repostId":"1188582814","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188582814","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1601336772,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188582814?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-29 07:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：美国出现今冬疫情反扑警报信号","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188582814","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"路透社：美股各大板块普涨，能源和金融股领涨CNBC：谷歌明年对App内购抽成30%金融时报：LVMH为撤销收购辩护指蒂芙妮前景“黯淡”华尔街日报：几年抗争后Uber赢回伦敦营业执照彭博社：美国出现今冬","content":"<blockquote><b>路透社：美股各大板块普涨，能源和金融股领涨</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>CNBC：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>明年对App内购抽成30%</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>金融时报：LVMH为撤销收购辩护指蒂芙妮前景“黯淡”</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>华尔街日报：几年抗争后Uber赢回伦敦营业执照</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>彭博社：美国出现今冬疫情反扑的警报信号</b></blockquote><h2><b>路透社</b></h2><p><b>美股各大板块普涨能源和金融股领涨&nbsp;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515479c2c3683da65bd1b5f5bffa1564\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p>在标普和道指上周创一年来最长连跌周后，三大美股指数本周一集体收涨，各大板块全线上扬，疫情期间最受打击的能源和金融股当日表现最为出色。</p><p>标普500收涨1.61%，道指收涨410.10点，涨幅1.51%，纳指收涨1.87%，创至少一个多月来最大收盘涨幅。标普500的能源和金融板块均收涨逾2%。两大科技股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>均涨超2%，再次成为推动力最大的标普500和纳指成份股。</p><p>道指成份股中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>收涨逾6%表现最好。上周末美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）局长 Steve Dickson表示，本周他将对波音的737 Max机型进行飞行评估。其他航空股也都涨势强劲。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>上周五宣布获得55亿美元美国政府的贷款，未来还可能获得贷款。四大美国航空公司中，本周一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>和美联航涨超5%，美国航空和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>涨超3%。</p><p>本月美股指势将累计下跌，不过到本月末，今年第二和第三季度，标普和纳指有望分别创2009年和2000年来最大的两季度累计涨幅。</p><h2><b>CNBC</b></h2><p><b>谷歌明年对App内购抽成30%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3739a9b5db79aaef971f0c230caedb77\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"452\"></p><p>谷歌周一宣布，将推行新的规定，要求App开发商，运用谷歌的App内部支付系统传播谷歌应用商店Google Play Store的安卓系统软件。</p><p>这意味着，从2021年月30日起，开发商必须运用谷歌对付款抽成30%的结算系统，而不是独立的支付系统。这一规定让Google Play Store的政策与苹果App Store的政策一致。</p><p>谷歌现有的政策并未强制要求开发商必须用谷歌的抽成系统。苹果的App Store规定已经因为30%的抽成等问题引起开发商和监管方的指责。</p><p>此次谷歌并未说明哪些App规避了抽成，而是说，在Google Play Store出售数字商品的开发商中，有97%都遵守了谷歌的政策。</p><h2><b>金融时报</b></h2><p><b>LVMH为撤销收购辩护指蒂芙妮前景“黯淡”</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac177868970e685e1c9403f99b7e96\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"588\"></p><p>在本周一公布的递交美国特拉华州法院辩词中，拥有LV等奢侈品牌的法国奢侈品集团LVMH表示，其原计划收购的美国珠宝商蒂芙妮（Tiffany）前景“黯淡”，希望法官批准LVMH撤销166亿美元规模的收购计划。</p><p>LVMH称，面对新冠肺炎的疫情，蒂芙妮管理层决定削减资本支出和营销方面的投资，增加负债，依然派发现金股息，这让该公司成为与LVMH达成收购协议时截然不同的企业。</p><p>LVMH预计，蒂芙妮的业绩将继续逊色，考虑到该公司今年第四季度仍将大受疫情影响，目前没有任何所受疫情打击缓和的迹象，该司自己的四季度业绩预期值得怀疑。LVMH还指责，蒂芙妮的管理层之所以试图强迫LVMH完成收购是因为，该公司的高管们能通过交易牟取私利，比如蒂芙妮的现任CEO Alessandro Bogliolo就可以获得约4400万美元，那样的收入相当于今年上半年该司的亏损额。</p><p>蒂芙妮与LVMH一案定于明年1月开审，两家公司仍有可能在审讯以前通过磋商达成和解。</p><h2><b>华尔街日报</b></h2><p><b>几年抗争后 Uber赢回伦敦营业执照</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d9ee81687b7fb5fda07aa076ab2510\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"442\"></p><p>本周一，伦敦一家法院宣布，虽然一些方面仍有问题，但Uber目前已经适合持有营业执照。这意味着，Uber赢得了上诉，可以重返目前最大的国际市场之一。</p><p>去年11月，伦敦监管方拒绝在Uber的执照到期后延长有效期，因为发现该公司有很多网约车司机未得到授权就使用其App接单，这种违规情况非常普遍。Uber当时表示，已经解决了这一问题，可伦敦的官员称，希望确保不会出现其他的软件问题。Uber随之就此决定提起上诉。</p><p>本周一Uber表示，已经获得了伦敦监管机构授予的为期18个月执照。这一决策是对Uber在安全方面承诺的认可。周一当天，在美上市Uber股价涨超3%，今年初以来累涨将近20%。</p><h2><b>彭博社</b></h2><p><b>美国出现今冬疫情反扑的警报信号</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebefef8c3245ee9056169b92de0375bf\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"477\"></p><p>目前出现一些迹象预示，美国的新冠肺炎死亡病例和重症病例将进一步增长。</p><p>追踪美国疫情的新冠肺炎跟踪项目Covid Tracking Project统计，美国的单日住院人数自7月末逼近6万后开始下降，但过去一周又达到了约3万人的高峰。截至上周日的七天内，单日平均死亡病例超过750，高于7月第一周约600例的日均水平。</p><p>住院病例的指标回升可能让人再度开始担心，随着天气转凉，更多的学校学习和节日社交等户外活动改为室内进行，美国的医疗健康系统可能因为大量新增病例而不堪重负。过往记录暗示，冬季的二次疫情形势可能比第一次疫情爆发时更严重。因为在冬季的几个月里，病原体的感染更难以清除，呼吸系统的病毒主要在那几个月传播。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：美国出现今冬疫情反扑警报信号\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-29 07:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote><b>路透社：美股各大板块普涨，能源和金融股领涨</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>CNBC：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>明年对App内购抽成30%</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>金融时报：LVMH为撤销收购辩护指蒂芙妮前景“黯淡”</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>华尔街日报：几年抗争后Uber赢回伦敦营业执照</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>彭博社：美国出现今冬疫情反扑的警报信号</b></blockquote><h2><b>路透社</b></h2><p><b>美股各大板块普涨能源和金融股领涨&nbsp;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515479c2c3683da65bd1b5f5bffa1564\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p>在标普和道指上周创一年来最长连跌周后，三大美股指数本周一集体收涨，各大板块全线上扬，疫情期间最受打击的能源和金融股当日表现最为出色。</p><p>标普500收涨1.61%，道指收涨410.10点，涨幅1.51%，纳指收涨1.87%，创至少一个多月来最大收盘涨幅。标普500的能源和金融板块均收涨逾2%。两大科技股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>均涨超2%，再次成为推动力最大的标普500和纳指成份股。</p><p>道指成份股中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>收涨逾6%表现最好。上周末美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）局长 Steve Dickson表示，本周他将对波音的737 Max机型进行飞行评估。其他航空股也都涨势强劲。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>上周五宣布获得55亿美元美国政府的贷款，未来还可能获得贷款。四大美国航空公司中，本周一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>和美联航涨超5%，美国航空和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>涨超3%。</p><p>本月美股指势将累计下跌，不过到本月末，今年第二和第三季度，标普和纳指有望分别创2009年和2000年来最大的两季度累计涨幅。</p><h2><b>CNBC</b></h2><p><b>谷歌明年对App内购抽成30%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3739a9b5db79aaef971f0c230caedb77\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"452\"></p><p>谷歌周一宣布，将推行新的规定，要求App开发商，运用谷歌的App内部支付系统传播谷歌应用商店Google Play Store的安卓系统软件。</p><p>这意味着，从2021年月30日起，开发商必须运用谷歌对付款抽成30%的结算系统，而不是独立的支付系统。这一规定让Google Play Store的政策与苹果App Store的政策一致。</p><p>谷歌现有的政策并未强制要求开发商必须用谷歌的抽成系统。苹果的App Store规定已经因为30%的抽成等问题引起开发商和监管方的指责。</p><p>此次谷歌并未说明哪些App规避了抽成，而是说，在Google Play Store出售数字商品的开发商中，有97%都遵守了谷歌的政策。</p><h2><b>金融时报</b></h2><p><b>LVMH为撤销收购辩护指蒂芙妮前景“黯淡”</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac177868970e685e1c9403f99b7e96\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"588\"></p><p>在本周一公布的递交美国特拉华州法院辩词中，拥有LV等奢侈品牌的法国奢侈品集团LVMH表示，其原计划收购的美国珠宝商蒂芙妮（Tiffany）前景“黯淡”，希望法官批准LVMH撤销166亿美元规模的收购计划。</p><p>LVMH称，面对新冠肺炎的疫情，蒂芙妮管理层决定削减资本支出和营销方面的投资，增加负债，依然派发现金股息，这让该公司成为与LVMH达成收购协议时截然不同的企业。</p><p>LVMH预计，蒂芙妮的业绩将继续逊色，考虑到该公司今年第四季度仍将大受疫情影响，目前没有任何所受疫情打击缓和的迹象，该司自己的四季度业绩预期值得怀疑。LVMH还指责，蒂芙妮的管理层之所以试图强迫LVMH完成收购是因为，该公司的高管们能通过交易牟取私利，比如蒂芙妮的现任CEO Alessandro Bogliolo就可以获得约4400万美元，那样的收入相当于今年上半年该司的亏损额。</p><p>蒂芙妮与LVMH一案定于明年1月开审，两家公司仍有可能在审讯以前通过磋商达成和解。</p><h2><b>华尔街日报</b></h2><p><b>几年抗争后 Uber赢回伦敦营业执照</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d9ee81687b7fb5fda07aa076ab2510\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"442\"></p><p>本周一，伦敦一家法院宣布，虽然一些方面仍有问题，但Uber目前已经适合持有营业执照。这意味着，Uber赢得了上诉，可以重返目前最大的国际市场之一。</p><p>去年11月，伦敦监管方拒绝在Uber的执照到期后延长有效期，因为发现该公司有很多网约车司机未得到授权就使用其App接单，这种违规情况非常普遍。Uber当时表示，已经解决了这一问题，可伦敦的官员称，希望确保不会出现其他的软件问题。Uber随之就此决定提起上诉。</p><p>本周一Uber表示，已经获得了伦敦监管机构授予的为期18个月执照。这一决策是对Uber在安全方面承诺的认可。周一当天，在美上市Uber股价涨超3%，今年初以来累涨将近20%。</p><h2><b>彭博社</b></h2><p><b>美国出现今冬疫情反扑的警报信号</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebefef8c3245ee9056169b92de0375bf\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"477\"></p><p>目前出现一些迹象预示，美国的新冠肺炎死亡病例和重症病例将进一步增长。</p><p>追踪美国疫情的新冠肺炎跟踪项目Covid Tracking Project统计，美国的单日住院人数自7月末逼近6万后开始下降，但过去一周又达到了约3万人的高峰。截至上周日的七天内，单日平均死亡病例超过750，高于7月第一周约600例的日均水平。</p><p>住院病例的指标回升可能让人再度开始担心，随着天气转凉，更多的学校学习和节日社交等户外活动改为室内进行，美国的医疗健康系统可能因为大量新增病例而不堪重负。过往记录暗示，冬季的二次疫情形势可能比第一次疫情爆发时更严重。因为在冬季的几个月里，病原体的感染更难以清除，呼吸系统的病毒主要在那几个月传播。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188582814","content_text":"路透社：美股各大板块普涨，能源和金融股领涨CNBC：谷歌明年对App内购抽成30%金融时报：LVMH为撤销收购辩护指蒂芙妮前景“黯淡”华尔街日报：几年抗争后Uber赢回伦敦营业执照彭博社：美国出现今冬疫情反扑的警报信号路透社美股各大板块普涨能源和金融股领涨 在标普和道指上周创一年来最长连跌周后，三大美股指数本周一集体收涨，各大板块全线上扬，疫情期间最受打击的能源和金融股当日表现最为出色。标普500收涨1.61%，道指收涨410.10点，涨幅1.51%，纳指收涨1.87%，创至少一个多月来最大收盘涨幅。标普500的能源和金融板块均收涨逾2%。两大科技股苹果和微软均涨超2%，再次成为推动力最大的标普500和纳指成份股。道指成份股中，波音收涨逾6%表现最好。上周末美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）局长 Steve Dickson表示，本周他将对波音的737 Max机型进行飞行评估。其他航空股也都涨势强劲。美国航空上周五宣布获得55亿美元美国政府的贷款，未来还可能获得贷款。四大美国航空公司中，本周一达美航空和美联航涨超5%，美国航空和西南航空涨超3%。本月美股指势将累计下跌，不过到本月末，今年第二和第三季度，标普和纳指有望分别创2009年和2000年来最大的两季度累计涨幅。CNBC谷歌明年对App内购抽成30%谷歌周一宣布，将推行新的规定，要求App开发商，运用谷歌的App内部支付系统传播谷歌应用商店Google Play Store的安卓系统软件。这意味着，从2021年月30日起，开发商必须运用谷歌对付款抽成30%的结算系统，而不是独立的支付系统。这一规定让Google Play Store的政策与苹果App Store的政策一致。谷歌现有的政策并未强制要求开发商必须用谷歌的抽成系统。苹果的App Store规定已经因为30%的抽成等问题引起开发商和监管方的指责。此次谷歌并未说明哪些App规避了抽成，而是说，在Google Play Store出售数字商品的开发商中，有97%都遵守了谷歌的政策。金融时报LVMH为撤销收购辩护指蒂芙妮前景“黯淡”在本周一公布的递交美国特拉华州法院辩词中，拥有LV等奢侈品牌的法国奢侈品集团LVMH表示，其原计划收购的美国珠宝商蒂芙妮（Tiffany）前景“黯淡”，希望法官批准LVMH撤销166亿美元规模的收购计划。LVMH称，面对新冠肺炎的疫情，蒂芙妮管理层决定削减资本支出和营销方面的投资，增加负债，依然派发现金股息，这让该公司成为与LVMH达成收购协议时截然不同的企业。LVMH预计，蒂芙妮的业绩将继续逊色，考虑到该公司今年第四季度仍将大受疫情影响，目前没有任何所受疫情打击缓和的迹象，该司自己的四季度业绩预期值得怀疑。LVMH还指责，蒂芙妮的管理层之所以试图强迫LVMH完成收购是因为，该公司的高管们能通过交易牟取私利，比如蒂芙妮的现任CEO Alessandro Bogliolo就可以获得约4400万美元，那样的收入相当于今年上半年该司的亏损额。蒂芙妮与LVMH一案定于明年1月开审，两家公司仍有可能在审讯以前通过磋商达成和解。华尔街日报几年抗争后 Uber赢回伦敦营业执照本周一，伦敦一家法院宣布，虽然一些方面仍有问题，但Uber目前已经适合持有营业执照。这意味着，Uber赢得了上诉，可以重返目前最大的国际市场之一。去年11月，伦敦监管方拒绝在Uber的执照到期后延长有效期，因为发现该公司有很多网约车司机未得到授权就使用其App接单，这种违规情况非常普遍。Uber当时表示，已经解决了这一问题，可伦敦的官员称，希望确保不会出现其他的软件问题。Uber随之就此决定提起上诉。本周一Uber表示，已经获得了伦敦监管机构授予的为期18个月执照。这一决策是对Uber在安全方面承诺的认可。周一当天，在美上市Uber股价涨超3%，今年初以来累涨将近20%。彭博社美国出现今冬疫情反扑的警报信号目前出现一些迹象预示，美国的新冠肺炎死亡病例和重症病例将进一步增长。追踪美国疫情的新冠肺炎跟踪项目Covid Tracking Project统计，美国的单日住院人数自7月末逼近6万后开始下降，但过去一周又达到了约3万人的高峰。截至上周日的七天内，单日平均死亡病例超过750，高于7月第一周约600例的日均水平。住院病例的指标回升可能让人再度开始担心，随着天气转凉，更多的学校学习和节日社交等户外活动改为室内进行，美国的医疗健康系统可能因为大量新增病例而不堪重负。过往记录暗示，冬季的二次疫情形势可能比第一次疫情爆发时更严重。因为在冬季的几个月里，病原体的感染更难以清除，呼吸系统的病毒主要在那几个月传播。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983819700,"gmtCreate":1583216741200,"gmtModify":1704349049736,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06186\">$中国飞鹤(06186)$</a>**","listText":"<a 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短线之友","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907362301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959433926,"gmtCreate":1589981736465,"gmtModify":1704191368886,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那就做空吧，不用废话","listText":"那就做空吧，不用废话","text":"那就做空吧，不用废话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959433926","repostId":"1117176892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117176892","pubTimestamp":1589938548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117176892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-20 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117176892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是","content":"<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。</p>\n<p>在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。</p>\n<p>从好的方面来看，5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查，38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时，投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。</p>\n<p>过去两个月里，全球风险资产飙升，得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施，以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施，投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而，资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明，由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害，许多投资者都远离股市。</p>\n<p>最新的美国银行调查显示，现金水平小幅下降至5.7%，但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平，而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示，基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位，对欧元区股票是空头仓位。</p>\n<p>由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位，调查显示，投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。</p>\n<p>鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产，美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示，对冲基金本月增持股票，达到34%的净多头仓位，使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。</p>\n<p>除了美银的调查，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>调查也显示，超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。</p>\n<p>德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷，搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示，57%的机构投资者认为，后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规，每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07bedfaaa8a79154768b548805dc969\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"394\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"></p>\n<p>专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后，工作效率也在提高，与上次调查相比(42%)，仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1799e3fc4fec032115b9327f28e33fc8\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态，只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>\n<p>受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度：74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗，只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。</p>\n<p>但专业投资者普遍认为，疫苗在短期无法上市，仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。</p>\n<p>机构投资者同时认为，因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续：48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续，另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。</p>\n<p>在市场走势方面，机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌，另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-20 09:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1117176892","content_text":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。\n从好的方面来看，5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查，38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时，投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。\n过去两个月里，全球风险资产飙升，得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施，以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施，投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而，资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明，由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害，许多投资者都远离股市。\n最新的美国银行调查显示，现金水平小幅下降至5.7%，但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平，而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示，基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位，对欧元区股票是空头仓位。\n由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位，调查显示，投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。\n鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产，美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示，对冲基金本月增持股票，达到34%的净多头仓位，使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。\n除了美银的调查，德意志银行调查也显示，超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。\n德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷，搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示，57%的机构投资者认为，后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规，每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。\n\n专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后，工作效率也在提高，与上次调查相比(42%)，仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。\n\n机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态，只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。\n\n受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度：74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗，只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。\n但专业投资者普遍认为，疫苗在短期无法上市，仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。\n机构投资者同时认为，因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续：48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续，另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。\n在市场走势方面，机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌，另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981122383,"gmtCreate":1583590387342,"gmtModify":1704350315595,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"傻13文章","listText":"傻13文章","text":"傻13文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981122383","repostId":"2017589375","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919752221,"gmtCreate":1577077558263,"gmtModify":1704335183768,"author":{"id":"3522659534924387","authorId":"3522659534924387","name":"旭虎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522659534924387","authorIdStr":"3522659534924387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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