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2020-05-21

$跟谁学(GSX)$香

2020-05-21

$跟谁学(GSX)$陈向东加油 💪 怎么今天没见你发表意见

2020-05-18

这是拿钱让人做的虽然写的比较中性客观但是请别拿我们当傻子

“趁火打劫”式的中概股做空潮里，跟谁学造假了吗？

2020-05-18

$跟谁学(GSX)$兄弟们牛不牛皮

2020-05-12

$跟谁学(GSX)$上车上车

2020-04-17

$烨星集团(01941)$C位出道

2020-03-28

$蔚来(NIO)$早上起来一看，突然感觉血压又高了，得去吃两片药压一压[流泪] [捂脸]

2020-03-27

$蔚来(NIO)$今晚总该回血了

2020-03-19

$烨星集团(01941)$今天的套有点深不能一味用惯性思维是时候要用逆向思维。希望在我逆向的时候别又变成惯性的。

2020-03-10

哈哈笑死了评论区出人才

2020-03-09

盘前1.8 全仓抄底

2020-02-28

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$黄金它不香吗

2020-02-28

本周连续的北向资金撤出看来各大金融集团日子不好过回顾历史再回归本质现货黄金白银价格一直还没涨上去不知道是哪些大佬在故意打压金融危机不可怕各位财团大佬稳住别造成货币危机就好

2020-02-27

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$大哥今晚你该涨上去了

2020-02-26

$哈莫尼黄金(HMY)$脑壳疼

2020-01-15

$蔚来(NIO)$第一次买期权[开心][开心]

2020-01-08

$蔚来(NIO)$能挺住不

2020-01-07

$新石文化(01740)$$九毛九(09922)$最近很火的两只新股昨晚12申请认购了按照超购来看还是原石更受资本追捧估计都是为了炒作一波[捂脸]

2019-12-31

$贵州银行(06199)$下辈子再也不打银行股

2019-12-26

$蔚来(NIO)$all ywin 梭哈了赢了会所输了下海这么简单

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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但是请别拿我们当傻子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959115710","repostId":"1112858927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112858927","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有料，有趣，有深度。由董秘、CFO、投行和基金经理等一线从业人员组建的专业市值管理公众号，专注于解读中国资本市场最典型的并购重组、最血腥的股权战争和最脑洞大开的财务舞弊。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市值风云","id":"43","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a"},"pubTimestamp":1589810152,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112858927?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-18 21:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“趁火打劫”式的中概股做空潮里，跟谁学造假了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112858927","media":"市值风云","summary":"相关阅读：跟谁学回应浑水做空：数据来源混乱，对公司业务无知现金最难造假，那我们就从现金入手吧。在香橼持续三次做空后，跟谁学 又被浑水盯上。5月18日，浑水再次发布做空报告称，跟谁学至少有80%的用户是","content":"<p>相关阅读：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2036013131\" target=\"_blank\"><b>跟谁学回应浑水做空：数据来源混乱，对公司业务无知</b></a></p><blockquote><b><span>现金最难造假，那我们就从现金入手吧。</span></b></blockquote><p><b>在香橼持续三次做空后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a> 又被浑水盯上。</b>5月18日，浑水再次发布做空报告称，跟谁学至少有80%的用户是机器人；并怀疑至少有80%的收入是造假的，甚至可能是90%以上，还称跟谁学欺瞒性地少报了费用。浑水还表示，董事长陈向东至少抵押了3.18亿美元的跟谁学股份，出借人是瑞士信贷。瑞信是瑞幸咖啡的重要保证金出借人，长期持有跟谁学股票的投资者面临的风险是，保证金出借人会大举抛售股票，导致股价暴跌。</p><p><span>今年以来，因为“瑞幸咖啡造假事件”导致了对中概股诚信状况的集体焦虑，一大批中概股遭遇了大量的“趁火打劫”式的质疑和做空，场面堪称混乱——我们无意去讨论所谓的动机，也不愿以阴谋论揣度别人，专业的人干专业的事，我们，尊重事实，尊重规则：只要你铁证如山，我们必送上作为同行的崇高致敬。</span></p><p><span>但是，基于某种情愫和职业上、专业上的敏感，我们认为事有蹊跷，有可待商榷和验证的余地。</span></p><p><span>于是，我们准备抽取一家在这场混战中遭遇做空的中概股公司，使用市值风云的方法论，从公开信息、公开数据、通用方法论角度，进行财务和基本面的深度研究，以验证这波做空潮的真实水准。</span></p><p><span>跟谁学，遭到连续做空，是本轮做空大战的焦点公司之一。我们就选取这家公司为研究标的，尽可能的庖丁解牛，厘清事实。</span></p><p><span><b>一、风波亭里话风波</b></span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a> <span>成立于2014年，是一家主要从事K12在线教育的公司。</span></p><p><span>公司于2019年6月上市，IPO价格为每股10.50美元。截至今年5月8日收盘，公司股价已经达到41.98美元，累计涨幅达到300%，给投资者带来的收益还是相当可观的。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5a93976d2d1d8a0813de7d75772b878\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2972\"><span>今年以来，做空跟谁学的主要是Grizzly Research、香橼（Citron）、天蝎创投等三家机构。</span></p><p><span>其中以香橼的最为激烈，连发了三份报告，从虚增收入、获客成本等角度对其进行了质疑。</span></p><p><b><span>真相究竟怎么样呢？风云君也非常感兴趣。</span></b></p><p><span>在这篇文章里，风云君先对跟谁学的业务做简单的介绍，然后提出自己的方法论。</span></p><p><span>在全部事实水落石出之前，风云君决定只做一个旁观者。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48d822d88c15dc50099283bea114d56\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"625\"></p><p><span><b>二、业务模式</b></span></p><p><span>跟谁学目前共有5个品牌：跟谁学、高途课堂、金囿学堂、成蹊商学院、微师。</span></p><blockquote><span>其中，跟谁学和高途课堂面向K12教育，是公司最主要的2个品牌；金囿学堂提供外语、专业和兴趣教育；成蹊商学院是公司为教培行业从业者开办的商学院；微师则是一个基于微信的互动学习平台。</span></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaaeb351470e25ca3dba3abbab836bc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季度电话会议投资者报告）</span></p><p><span>跟谁学最出名的就是双师大班在线教学。</span></p><p><span>双师是指主讲老师和辅导老师，大班是说一个主讲老师可以对应上千人的学生。</span></p><p><span>比如2019年，平均每个K12课程拥有1200名报名学生。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0fa1284b173019b1d8d6c93f5e184ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>跟谁学在线教学的模式是，课程会在固定的开课时间进行线上直播，直播过后还可以看回放，但是回放有一定的有效期。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055b6c4b5809e84c032af8c037aca6a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\"></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>风云君看到这一模式，第一反应是得到App上的付费课程或者知乎Live。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f276ffb57fc1339070b24c3a4528ae25\" tg-width=\"379\" tg-height=\"805\"></p><p><span>（来源：得到App）</span></p><p><span>截至2019年底，跟谁学共有232名主讲老师，3736名辅导老师。</span></p><p><span>辅导老师的职责主要是：</span></p><blockquote><span>与学生和家长互动，监督学习进程，在课上回答学生的问题，课后批改作业，与主讲老师合作提高满意度和续课的比例。</span></blockquote><p><b><span>可以说，辅导老师承担了传统教学中劳动密集的工作。</span></b></p><p><span><b>三、经营数据</b></span></p><p><span>下面我们来看几个数字。</span></p><p><span>2019年，跟谁学的收入达到21.12亿元，同比增长432.3%。</span></p><p><span>其中，80.7%的收入来自K12课程，17.9%的收入来自外语、专业和兴趣教育服务，1.2%的收入来自线下咨询课程，其他收入占比不足1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e2de1686e9988ecde2d9a87afb5b52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"></p><p><b><span>（一）2019年大班策略开始奏效</span></b></p><p><span>2019年，公司平台的总报名人次达到了274万，增速达到了258%。</span></p><p><span>平均每个K12课程的报名人数达到1200人，同比翻倍。2017-2018年，平均每个K12课程的报名人次从400增加到600，增幅并没有2019年这么明显。</span></p><p><b><span>这说明公司的大班课策略是从2019年开始明显奏效的。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459d5e6d58e22c0a72c6e858f7722933\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><p><b><span>（二）正价课报名人次的比例影响毛利率</span></b></p><p><span>根据公开信息，跟谁学提到课程单价在99-4870元之间（注：K12课程）。</span></p><p><span>公司也把99元以上的称为正价课，99元以下的打折或免费课程的一般用于推广和营销。</span></p><p><span>2019年，正价课报名人次为218.66万，占总报名人次的79.7%。这一比例在2018年经历了比较大的下滑，在2019年又反弹回来。</span></p><p><span>可想而知，2018年“白嫖”的人更多了之后，毛利率一定是更低的。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0f00a92480115fb2db362d5a88b51f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><span>2018年，毛利率只有64.1%，低于2017、2019年。2019年的毛利率达到74.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ffd6142a09acd8ef4c571bd3178960b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"></p><p><b><span>（三）师生比在2019年有所下降</span></b></p><p><span>截至2019年底，跟谁学共有主讲老师232人，辅导老师3736人。相比2018年，主讲老师增加了42%，辅导老师则是增加了961%！</span></p><p><b><span>可见，辅导老师数量是大班教学的重要配套条件。</span></b></p><p><span>另外，前十大主讲老师贡献收入的比例从2018年的46.6%下降到了2019年的36.3%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af8e0f1c55b64653bc1f0d5ec532a42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\"></p><p><span>教育行业很喜欢用的一个指标是师生比。正价课报名人次与辅导老师的比例在2019年是585，也就是说平均每个辅导老师每年负责585人次的学生。这一比例相比2018年的1569有了大幅下降，</span><span><b>师生比对学生的留存率非常重要。</b></span></p><p><span>另外，这个数字看上去很高，不过由于跟谁学的课程周期一般只有几个月，所以同一时间辅导的学生人数并没有那么多。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5ec013836f3ea57b26753d905a2410\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p><b><span>（四）2018年是K12线上教学“起风”的一年</span></b></p><p><span>2019年，跟谁学的K12收入为17.07亿元，同比增长了486.7%。</span></p><p><span>在这之前，好未来（TAL.N）的线上业务收入在2019财年（注：结束于2019年2月底的年度）就达到了29.14亿元，同比增长了156.6%。</span></p><p><span>而新东方在线（01797.HK）的K12收入在2019财年（注：结束于2019年5月底的年度）也达到1.59亿元，同比增长80.8%。</span></p><p><span>由于好未来和新东方在线2019财年的主要部分都在2018年，所以把两者与跟谁学的2018年数据做对比（注：好未来还没有披露2020财年的线上业务数据）。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9443ab86ace63fcf345edd3e67ea5295\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\"></p><p><span>2018年，新东方在线也推出了双师模式的在线直播教学模式，不过仍然是20人的小班。这项业务被称为“东方优播”，增速要快于其他K12业务。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b60c0535460b4cd8daff97b1cd997842\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"236\"></p><p><span>（来源：新东方在线2019财年年报）</span></p><p><span>下面我们来看看跟谁学的公司架构。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b1c0554d91f6ffa4c65c51c6a1218a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\"></p><p><b><span>四、公司架构</span></b></p><p><span>跟谁学采用的是中概股典型的VIE架构，北京百家互联科技有限公司（注：简称百家互联）是其内地经营实体。</span></p><p><span>根据2019年年报，公司董事长和CEO陈向东持有46.1%的股份及89.5%的投票权。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b2edc45aa4fe868d43f2cc6d64b9ba3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p><span>百家互联的实缴注册资本为5500万元，2018年工商报告中显示的参保人数是491人。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a2b890f263a1ce700cb6e8e2fd1867a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查）</span></p><p><span>在2019年11月披露的二次发售招股书中，百家互联共有5个并表子公司，分别是：</span></p><blockquote><span>北京跟谁学科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>北京加紫科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>北京高途云集教育科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>北京百家成蹊教育科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>上海金囿教育科技有限公司。</span></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae64f4fb8aef21c490649caec0d2e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"602\"></p><p><span>（2019年11月二次发售招股书）</span></p><p><span>其中，北京跟谁学科技实缴注册资本100万元。北京加紫科技，实缴出资额500万元。</span></p><p><span>根据天眼查，加紫科技有两项业务，分别是超级志愿和babyABC英语启蒙。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91360e1ea8692cee50bd8c2face8d46a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p><span>（来源：天眼查）</span></p><p><span>这两款APP风云君在豌豆荚中都能搜到。</span></p><p><span>北京高途云集实缴注册资本1000万元。另外，北京百家成蹊的实缴注册资本为500万元。</span></p><p><span>风云君在拉勾网上看到，成蹊商学院是面向教培行业从业者的商学院。成蹊商学院的目的应该是为公司获取更多的师资力量。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13b1422bc89ab93eac6e9cf5f74c14a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\"></p><p><span>（来源：https://www.lagou.com/jobs/6786719.html?source=pl&amp;i=pl-0&amp;show=4821c908e5f04c0a88c83179ed64eab5）</span></p><p><span>上海金囿的实缴注册资本500万元。从官网可以看出，上海金囿是一家服务于金融领域考证以及金融知识学习的公司。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d6d8fdb73689f5dc13b2e90c3d8771\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><b><span>综合上面的信息，北京百家互联、北京高途云集是公司最主要的2个运营实体，其次是北京加紫科技、北京百家成蹊和上海金囿。</span></b></p><p><span>在2020年4月3日披露的年报中，并表的子公司增加了2家，分别是2020年1月份新收购的郑州高途云集科技有限公司，以及山东跟谁学互联科技有限公司。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c969d04081e474b26c76b0df4229b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"625\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年年报）</span></p><p><span>其中，郑州高途的收购代价为3.34亿元，其主要资产是2栋已完工的办公楼和1栋建设中的办公楼。总楼面面积为6.33万平方米，约合5276元每平方米。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9a5643ed12a6d22d211e70bb265fa86\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"172\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年年报）</span></p><p><span>山东跟谁学互联成立于2020年1月，实缴注册资本5000万元。近期，跟谁学还成立了太原、武汉、浙江三家地方性子公司。</span></p><p><span>以上子公司均为100%控股。</span></p><p><span>另外，跟谁学还有北京优联环球教育科技有限公司、成都菁苗教育科技股份有限公司两个重要的附属公司，分别持股30%、38%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f845541df98663edb87bddae1ff994d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查，2020.05.10）</span></p><p><span>北京优联由跟谁学前员工熊骁于2014年创办，目前熊骁对其持股45%，是实际控制人。陈向东直接持股10%，间接通过上市公司持股13.59%（注：考虑陈向东在上市公司的股份为46.1%），合计23.59%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea3ccd7b920a991a24abdbeefe602246\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查）</span></p><p><span>北京优联的品牌叫做“家长家”，是中国最大的家长学习平台，拥有《家长家早课堂》、《家长家大课堂》等课程。</span></p><p><span>最后，成都菁苗是一家亲子户外素质培养平台，成立于2016年。北京百家互联持有38%的股份，是第二大股东，其中陈向东通过上市公司间接持股17.22%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f3432c8d4e494a4adce58f1d654fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查）</span></p><p><span><b>五、增长和盈利</b></span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，跟谁学的收入为12.98亿元，同比增长382.1%。</span></p><p><span>公司的增长非常快，风云君在这里使用季度数据来衡量其成长性。</span></p><p><span>从季度数据中能看出一个明显的特点，季度增速是从2018年四季度开始提高到400%左右。这也与前面“大班策略于2019年开始奏效”的说法相一致。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5bcf710f6999f10aa863e47dba4936\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\"></p><p><span>我们再来看看环比数据，并且与现金收入对比来看。现金收入说的是当期实收的学费和来自平台上老师的会员费。</span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，现金收入为13.74亿元，环比下降了12.9%。同季度的营收则环比增长了38.8%。</span></p><p><span>在这之前，季度现金收入还有一次环比负增长。2019年一季度，现金收入为3亿元，环比下降了5.7%，当季营收环比增长了47.7%，而次季度仅增长了31.4%，是两年多来最慢的一次。</span></p><p><span>收入确认的滞后性就体现在这里。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbd2eccbf6990a6f4443dc9a71f557\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\"></p><p><span>跟谁学的电话会议中说，一季度和三季度一般是公司招收新学生的时期，二季度和四季度是续费窗口期。而且一季度和三季度的付费人次相对较低，所以现金收入也会比较少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd21a0536b4509d8c28fdba0ddcab2d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"155\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季度电话会议）</span></p><p><span>而从现金收入和正价课报名人次来看，两者的走势比较一致。</span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，现金收入为13.74亿元，正价课报名人次为77.4万。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a288b016b3438317343440fe099143a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"436\"></p><p><span>盈利方面，2018年三季度跟谁学首次实现季度盈利。当季营业利润率和净利润率分别为0.1%、0.7%。</span></p><p><span>2018年三季度-2020年一季度，季度毛利率基本上呈上升趋势，主要是因为规模效应。</span></p><p><span>同时，跟谁学的营业利润率波动较大，2019年三季度还出现了营业利润的短暂亏损。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ae9429ee929c9b9a0ddc0ad0da4eb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"436\"></p><p><span>这其中最大的变量就是营销费用率。2018年一季度至今，研发费用率、一般及行政费用率基本上呈下滑趋势，营销费用率则逐渐上升。</span></p><p><span>2019年三季度的营业利润亏损就是由于营销费用率达到了59.3%。财报中对此的解释是为了获得更多用户以及提高品牌知名度。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f33fe7ff9615d942994e34725a10a76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8614885d63b28d96a4981e0f0cdfe33\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"126\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年三季报）</span></p><p><b><span>跟谁学未来能否持续盈利，主要看的也是营销费用率能否稳定住。</span></b></p><p><span>相比新东方在线，跟谁学的毛利率要更高：</span></p><p><span>2018、2019年，跟谁学的毛利率分别为64.1%、74.7%。新东方在线K12业务2019财年（注：截至2019年5月底的年度）毛利率只有10.0%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76ef24b322a295c374d3e723203cdfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\"></p><p><b><span>在风云君看来，这主要是因为两者教学方式的不同。跟谁学的模式为双师大班在线教学，新东方在线的模式仍然是小班。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76655e3622167896e555d88a7eb0a3df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\"></p><p><span>（来源：东方优播官网）</span></p><p><span><b>六、现金和投资收益</b></span></p><p><span>网上已经有很多对做空报告的解读，风云君决定用自己的方法论来看一看。</span></p><p><span>由于利润表的验证难度较大，风云君决定从资产负债表和现金流量表出发。</span></p><p><span>截至2019年底，跟谁学的总资产为33.95亿元。</span></p><p><span>其中，现金及现金等价物为7397万元，短期投资达到14.73亿元，长期投资达到11.88亿元。三者合计27.36亿元，占总资产的80.6%，比例非常大。</span></p><p><span>风云君觉得有必要考察一下这一科目。</span></p><p><span>公司的短期投资和长期投资基本上都是银行的理财产品，穿透到底层资产则是债权产品。</span></p><p><span>2019年四季度，跟谁学从现金及现金等价物和短期理财产品中获得的收益为1000万元。用1000万元除以季度初和季度末的现金及现金等价物和短期投资的平均值，得出的年化收益率（注：再乘以4）为3.1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c1d3411e652c1240f75cf422bad018\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"324\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年四季报）</span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，跟谁学从现金及现金等价物、短期投资、长期投资中获得的收益为1260万元，年化收益率约为3.2%。此处的计算忽略掉长期投资，因为从资产负债表来看，短期投资的减少幅度远大于长期投资。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2d51aa1f65d97c58b234308676517b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"221\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季报）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66aa9a435da8899f05a302f67750fce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季报）</span></p><p><b><span>总的来说，投资收益率还算合理。</span></b></p><p><span>另外在今年一季度的投资人电话沟通会上，跟谁学还披露了现金及现金等价物的存放银行：公司在招行、建行、北京银行、民生银行的存款共计2.23亿元，在花旗银行的美元存款合人民币3.41亿元（注：按照今年3月31日的汇率）。</span></p><p><span>两者合计5.65亿元，与财报中的总数一致。</span></p><p><span>另外，公司存放在招行和民生银行的短期和长期投资共计11.4亿元，在花旗银行的美元投资合人民币10.62亿元。两者合计22.02亿元，略微超过财报中的21.72亿元（注：可能是四舍五入的问题）。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a04ed819585aeb583d65c071d329fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季报投资人电话沟通会）</span></p><p><b><span>综合来看，公司的现金及现金等价物和长短期投资问题不大。</span></b></p><p><span>作为一家在线教育公司，预收学费的业务特点使得其现金流表现还是很不错的。</span></p><p><span>2019年，跟谁学的经营活动净现金流为12.85亿元，自由现金流为12.24亿元，在过去三年里增幅很大。</span></p><p><span>而风云君翻看几家做空机构的报告，有相当一部分都在讨论刷单，但是刷单并不能使现金流出现大幅增长。</span></p><p><span>另外，最近三年公司的资本开支较少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ba3b25c5fbfcd2ce43def879510f81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\"></p><p><span>投资活动现金流的其他科目主要是购买短期、长期理财，或者理财产品到期。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0f3a11a1bed46a6b9c08a650c3f50b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年年报）</span></p><p><b><span>所以，风云君认为跟谁学的现金流量表问题也不大。</span></b></p><p><span>在2019年，跟谁学回购了8670万元的股票，合1250万美元。</span></p><p><span>2020年的一季报中，公司宣布了一项为期2年（注：截至2022年5月6日）的股票回购计划，总回购金额不超过1.5亿美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b08b539c52b8e3ebaa858bba1e54658\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"169\"></p><p><span>是老虎还是Hello Kitty，到底差不差钱儿，就看公司后续回购中的实际买入动作了。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“趁火打劫”式的中概股做空潮里，跟谁学造假了吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“趁火打劫”式的中概股做空潮里，跟谁学造假了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/43\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市值风云 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-18 21:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>相关阅读：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2036013131\" target=\"_blank\"><b>跟谁学回应浑水做空：数据来源混乱，对公司业务无知</b></a></p><blockquote><b><span>现金最难造假，那我们就从现金入手吧。</span></b></blockquote><p><b>在香橼持续三次做空后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a> 又被浑水盯上。</b>5月18日，浑水再次发布做空报告称，跟谁学至少有80%的用户是机器人；并怀疑至少有80%的收入是造假的，甚至可能是90%以上，还称跟谁学欺瞒性地少报了费用。浑水还表示，董事长陈向东至少抵押了3.18亿美元的跟谁学股份，出借人是瑞士信贷。瑞信是瑞幸咖啡的重要保证金出借人，长期持有跟谁学股票的投资者面临的风险是，保证金出借人会大举抛售股票，导致股价暴跌。</p><p><span>今年以来，因为“瑞幸咖啡造假事件”导致了对中概股诚信状况的集体焦虑，一大批中概股遭遇了大量的“趁火打劫”式的质疑和做空，场面堪称混乱——我们无意去讨论所谓的动机，也不愿以阴谋论揣度别人，专业的人干专业的事，我们，尊重事实，尊重规则：只要你铁证如山，我们必送上作为同行的崇高致敬。</span></p><p><span>但是，基于某种情愫和职业上、专业上的敏感，我们认为事有蹊跷，有可待商榷和验证的余地。</span></p><p><span>于是，我们准备抽取一家在这场混战中遭遇做空的中概股公司，使用市值风云的方法论，从公开信息、公开数据、通用方法论角度，进行财务和基本面的深度研究，以验证这波做空潮的真实水准。</span></p><p><span>跟谁学，遭到连续做空，是本轮做空大战的焦点公司之一。我们就选取这家公司为研究标的，尽可能的庖丁解牛，厘清事实。</span></p><p><span><b>一、风波亭里话风波</b></span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a> <span>成立于2014年，是一家主要从事K12在线教育的公司。</span></p><p><span>公司于2019年6月上市，IPO价格为每股10.50美元。截至今年5月8日收盘，公司股价已经达到41.98美元，累计涨幅达到300%，给投资者带来的收益还是相当可观的。</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5a93976d2d1d8a0813de7d75772b878\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2972\"><span>今年以来，做空跟谁学的主要是Grizzly Research、香橼（Citron）、天蝎创投等三家机构。</span></p><p><span>其中以香橼的最为激烈，连发了三份报告，从虚增收入、获客成本等角度对其进行了质疑。</span></p><p><b><span>真相究竟怎么样呢？风云君也非常感兴趣。</span></b></p><p><span>在这篇文章里，风云君先对跟谁学的业务做简单的介绍，然后提出自己的方法论。</span></p><p><span>在全部事实水落石出之前，风云君决定只做一个旁观者。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48d822d88c15dc50099283bea114d56\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"625\"></p><p><span><b>二、业务模式</b></span></p><p><span>跟谁学目前共有5个品牌：跟谁学、高途课堂、金囿学堂、成蹊商学院、微师。</span></p><blockquote><span>其中，跟谁学和高途课堂面向K12教育，是公司最主要的2个品牌；金囿学堂提供外语、专业和兴趣教育；成蹊商学院是公司为教培行业从业者开办的商学院；微师则是一个基于微信的互动学习平台。</span></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaaeb351470e25ca3dba3abbab836bc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季度电话会议投资者报告）</span></p><p><span>跟谁学最出名的就是双师大班在线教学。</span></p><p><span>双师是指主讲老师和辅导老师，大班是说一个主讲老师可以对应上千人的学生。</span></p><p><span>比如2019年，平均每个K12课程拥有1200名报名学生。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0fa1284b173019b1d8d6c93f5e184ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>跟谁学在线教学的模式是，课程会在固定的开课时间进行线上直播，直播过后还可以看回放，但是回放有一定的有效期。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055b6c4b5809e84c032af8c037aca6a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\"></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>风云君看到这一模式，第一反应是得到App上的付费课程或者知乎Live。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f276ffb57fc1339070b24c3a4528ae25\" tg-width=\"379\" tg-height=\"805\"></p><p><span>（来源：得到App）</span></p><p><span>截至2019年底，跟谁学共有232名主讲老师，3736名辅导老师。</span></p><p><span>辅导老师的职责主要是：</span></p><blockquote><span>与学生和家长互动，监督学习进程，在课上回答学生的问题，课后批改作业，与主讲老师合作提高满意度和续课的比例。</span></blockquote><p><b><span>可以说，辅导老师承担了传统教学中劳动密集的工作。</span></b></p><p><span><b>三、经营数据</b></span></p><p><span>下面我们来看几个数字。</span></p><p><span>2019年，跟谁学的收入达到21.12亿元，同比增长432.3%。</span></p><p><span>其中，80.7%的收入来自K12课程，17.9%的收入来自外语、专业和兴趣教育服务，1.2%的收入来自线下咨询课程，其他收入占比不足1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e2de1686e9988ecde2d9a87afb5b52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"></p><p><b><span>（一）2019年大班策略开始奏效</span></b></p><p><span>2019年，公司平台的总报名人次达到了274万，增速达到了258%。</span></p><p><span>平均每个K12课程的报名人数达到1200人，同比翻倍。2017-2018年，平均每个K12课程的报名人次从400增加到600，增幅并没有2019年这么明显。</span></p><p><b><span>这说明公司的大班课策略是从2019年开始明显奏效的。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459d5e6d58e22c0a72c6e858f7722933\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><p><b><span>（二）正价课报名人次的比例影响毛利率</span></b></p><p><span>根据公开信息，跟谁学提到课程单价在99-4870元之间（注：K12课程）。</span></p><p><span>公司也把99元以上的称为正价课，99元以下的打折或免费课程的一般用于推广和营销。</span></p><p><span>2019年，正价课报名人次为218.66万，占总报名人次的79.7%。这一比例在2018年经历了比较大的下滑，在2019年又反弹回来。</span></p><p><span>可想而知，2018年“白嫖”的人更多了之后，毛利率一定是更低的。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0f00a92480115fb2db362d5a88b51f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><span>2018年，毛利率只有64.1%，低于2017、2019年。2019年的毛利率达到74.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ffd6142a09acd8ef4c571bd3178960b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"></p><p><b><span>（三）师生比在2019年有所下降</span></b></p><p><span>截至2019年底，跟谁学共有主讲老师232人，辅导老师3736人。相比2018年，主讲老师增加了42%，辅导老师则是增加了961%！</span></p><p><b><span>可见，辅导老师数量是大班教学的重要配套条件。</span></b></p><p><span>另外，前十大主讲老师贡献收入的比例从2018年的46.6%下降到了2019年的36.3%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af8e0f1c55b64653bc1f0d5ec532a42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\"></p><p><span>教育行业很喜欢用的一个指标是师生比。正价课报名人次与辅导老师的比例在2019年是585，也就是说平均每个辅导老师每年负责585人次的学生。这一比例相比2018年的1569有了大幅下降，</span><span><b>师生比对学生的留存率非常重要。</b></span></p><p><span>另外，这个数字看上去很高，不过由于跟谁学的课程周期一般只有几个月，所以同一时间辅导的学生人数并没有那么多。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5ec013836f3ea57b26753d905a2410\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p><b><span>（四）2018年是K12线上教学“起风”的一年</span></b></p><p><span>2019年，跟谁学的K12收入为17.07亿元，同比增长了486.7%。</span></p><p><span>在这之前，好未来（TAL.N）的线上业务收入在2019财年（注：结束于2019年2月底的年度）就达到了29.14亿元，同比增长了156.6%。</span></p><p><span>而新东方在线（01797.HK）的K12收入在2019财年（注：结束于2019年5月底的年度）也达到1.59亿元，同比增长80.8%。</span></p><p><span>由于好未来和新东方在线2019财年的主要部分都在2018年，所以把两者与跟谁学的2018年数据做对比（注：好未来还没有披露2020财年的线上业务数据）。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9443ab86ace63fcf345edd3e67ea5295\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\"></p><p><span>2018年，新东方在线也推出了双师模式的在线直播教学模式，不过仍然是20人的小班。这项业务被称为“东方优播”，增速要快于其他K12业务。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b60c0535460b4cd8daff97b1cd997842\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"236\"></p><p><span>（来源：新东方在线2019财年年报）</span></p><p><span>下面我们来看看跟谁学的公司架构。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b1c0554d91f6ffa4c65c51c6a1218a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\"></p><p><b><span>四、公司架构</span></b></p><p><span>跟谁学采用的是中概股典型的VIE架构，北京百家互联科技有限公司（注：简称百家互联）是其内地经营实体。</span></p><p><span>根据2019年年报，公司董事长和CEO陈向东持有46.1%的股份及89.5%的投票权。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b2edc45aa4fe868d43f2cc6d64b9ba3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"323\"></p><p><span>百家互联的实缴注册资本为5500万元，2018年工商报告中显示的参保人数是491人。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a2b890f263a1ce700cb6e8e2fd1867a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查）</span></p><p><span>在2019年11月披露的二次发售招股书中，百家互联共有5个并表子公司，分别是：</span></p><blockquote><span>北京跟谁学科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>北京加紫科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>北京高途云集教育科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>北京百家成蹊教育科技有限公司；</span></blockquote><blockquote><span>上海金囿教育科技有限公司。</span></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae64f4fb8aef21c490649caec0d2e59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"602\"></p><p><span>（2019年11月二次发售招股书）</span></p><p><span>其中，北京跟谁学科技实缴注册资本100万元。北京加紫科技，实缴出资额500万元。</span></p><p><span>根据天眼查，加紫科技有两项业务，分别是超级志愿和babyABC英语启蒙。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91360e1ea8692cee50bd8c2face8d46a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p><span>（来源：天眼查）</span></p><p><span>这两款APP风云君在豌豆荚中都能搜到。</span></p><p><span>北京高途云集实缴注册资本1000万元。另外，北京百家成蹊的实缴注册资本为500万元。</span></p><p><span>风云君在拉勾网上看到，成蹊商学院是面向教培行业从业者的商学院。成蹊商学院的目的应该是为公司获取更多的师资力量。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13b1422bc89ab93eac6e9cf5f74c14a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\"></p><p><span>（来源：https://www.lagou.com/jobs/6786719.html?source=pl&amp;i=pl-0&amp;show=4821c908e5f04c0a88c83179ed64eab5）</span></p><p><span>上海金囿的实缴注册资本500万元。从官网可以看出，上海金囿是一家服务于金融领域考证以及金融知识学习的公司。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d6d8fdb73689f5dc13b2e90c3d8771\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><b><span>综合上面的信息，北京百家互联、北京高途云集是公司最主要的2个运营实体，其次是北京加紫科技、北京百家成蹊和上海金囿。</span></b></p><p><span>在2020年4月3日披露的年报中，并表的子公司增加了2家，分别是2020年1月份新收购的郑州高途云集科技有限公司，以及山东跟谁学互联科技有限公司。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c969d04081e474b26c76b0df4229b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"625\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年年报）</span></p><p><span>其中，郑州高途的收购代价为3.34亿元，其主要资产是2栋已完工的办公楼和1栋建设中的办公楼。总楼面面积为6.33万平方米，约合5276元每平方米。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9a5643ed12a6d22d211e70bb265fa86\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"172\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年年报）</span></p><p><span>山东跟谁学互联成立于2020年1月，实缴注册资本5000万元。近期，跟谁学还成立了太原、武汉、浙江三家地方性子公司。</span></p><p><span>以上子公司均为100%控股。</span></p><p><span>另外，跟谁学还有北京优联环球教育科技有限公司、成都菁苗教育科技股份有限公司两个重要的附属公司，分别持股30%、38%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f845541df98663edb87bddae1ff994d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查，2020.05.10）</span></p><p><span>北京优联由跟谁学前员工熊骁于2014年创办，目前熊骁对其持股45%，是实际控制人。陈向东直接持股10%，间接通过上市公司持股13.59%（注：考虑陈向东在上市公司的股份为46.1%），合计23.59%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea3ccd7b920a991a24abdbeefe602246\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查）</span></p><p><span>北京优联的品牌叫做“家长家”，是中国最大的家长学习平台，拥有《家长家早课堂》、《家长家大课堂》等课程。</span></p><p><span>最后，成都菁苗是一家亲子户外素质培养平台，成立于2016年。北京百家互联持有38%的股份，是第二大股东，其中陈向东通过上市公司间接持股17.22%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f3432c8d4e494a4adce58f1d654fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\"></p><p><span>（来源：企查查）</span></p><p><span><b>五、增长和盈利</b></span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，跟谁学的收入为12.98亿元，同比增长382.1%。</span></p><p><span>公司的增长非常快，风云君在这里使用季度数据来衡量其成长性。</span></p><p><span>从季度数据中能看出一个明显的特点，季度增速是从2018年四季度开始提高到400%左右。这也与前面“大班策略于2019年开始奏效”的说法相一致。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5bcf710f6999f10aa863e47dba4936\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\"></p><p><span>我们再来看看环比数据，并且与现金收入对比来看。现金收入说的是当期实收的学费和来自平台上老师的会员费。</span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，现金收入为13.74亿元，环比下降了12.9%。同季度的营收则环比增长了38.8%。</span></p><p><span>在这之前，季度现金收入还有一次环比负增长。2019年一季度，现金收入为3亿元，环比下降了5.7%，当季营收环比增长了47.7%，而次季度仅增长了31.4%，是两年多来最慢的一次。</span></p><p><span>收入确认的滞后性就体现在这里。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbd2eccbf6990a6f4443dc9a71f557\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\"></p><p><span>跟谁学的电话会议中说，一季度和三季度一般是公司招收新学生的时期，二季度和四季度是续费窗口期。而且一季度和三季度的付费人次相对较低，所以现金收入也会比较少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd21a0536b4509d8c28fdba0ddcab2d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"155\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季度电话会议）</span></p><p><span>而从现金收入和正价课报名人次来看，两者的走势比较一致。</span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，现金收入为13.74亿元，正价课报名人次为77.4万。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a288b016b3438317343440fe099143a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"436\"></p><p><span>盈利方面，2018年三季度跟谁学首次实现季度盈利。当季营业利润率和净利润率分别为0.1%、0.7%。</span></p><p><span>2018年三季度-2020年一季度，季度毛利率基本上呈上升趋势，主要是因为规模效应。</span></p><p><span>同时，跟谁学的营业利润率波动较大，2019年三季度还出现了营业利润的短暂亏损。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ae9429ee929c9b9a0ddc0ad0da4eb7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"436\"></p><p><span>这其中最大的变量就是营销费用率。2018年一季度至今，研发费用率、一般及行政费用率基本上呈下滑趋势，营销费用率则逐渐上升。</span></p><p><span>2019年三季度的营业利润亏损就是由于营销费用率达到了59.3%。财报中对此的解释是为了获得更多用户以及提高品牌知名度。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f33fe7ff9615d942994e34725a10a76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8614885d63b28d96a4981e0f0cdfe33\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"126\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年三季报）</span></p><p><b><span>跟谁学未来能否持续盈利，主要看的也是营销费用率能否稳定住。</span></b></p><p><span>相比新东方在线，跟谁学的毛利率要更高：</span></p><p><span>2018、2019年，跟谁学的毛利率分别为64.1%、74.7%。新东方在线K12业务2019财年（注：截至2019年5月底的年度）毛利率只有10.0%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76ef24b322a295c374d3e723203cdfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\"></p><p><b><span>在风云君看来，这主要是因为两者教学方式的不同。跟谁学的模式为双师大班在线教学，新东方在线的模式仍然是小班。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76655e3622167896e555d88a7eb0a3df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\"></p><p><span>（来源：东方优播官网）</span></p><p><span><b>六、现金和投资收益</b></span></p><p><span>网上已经有很多对做空报告的解读，风云君决定用自己的方法论来看一看。</span></p><p><span>由于利润表的验证难度较大，风云君决定从资产负债表和现金流量表出发。</span></p><p><span>截至2019年底，跟谁学的总资产为33.95亿元。</span></p><p><span>其中，现金及现金等价物为7397万元，短期投资达到14.73亿元，长期投资达到11.88亿元。三者合计27.36亿元，占总资产的80.6%，比例非常大。</span></p><p><span>风云君觉得有必要考察一下这一科目。</span></p><p><span>公司的短期投资和长期投资基本上都是银行的理财产品，穿透到底层资产则是债权产品。</span></p><p><span>2019年四季度，跟谁学从现金及现金等价物和短期理财产品中获得的收益为1000万元。用1000万元除以季度初和季度末的现金及现金等价物和短期投资的平均值，得出的年化收益率（注：再乘以4）为3.1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c1d3411e652c1240f75cf422bad018\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"324\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年四季报）</span></p><p><span>2020年一季度，跟谁学从现金及现金等价物、短期投资、长期投资中获得的收益为1260万元，年化收益率约为3.2%。此处的计算忽略掉长期投资，因为从资产负债表来看，短期投资的减少幅度远大于长期投资。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2d51aa1f65d97c58b234308676517b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"221\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季报）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66aa9a435da8899f05a302f67750fce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季报）</span></p><p><b><span>总的来说，投资收益率还算合理。</span></b></p><p><span>另外在今年一季度的投资人电话沟通会上，跟谁学还披露了现金及现金等价物的存放银行：公司在招行、建行、北京银行、民生银行的存款共计2.23亿元，在花旗银行的美元存款合人民币3.41亿元（注：按照今年3月31日的汇率）。</span></p><p><span>两者合计5.65亿元，与财报中的总数一致。</span></p><p><span>另外，公司存放在招行和民生银行的短期和长期投资共计11.4亿元，在花旗银行的美元投资合人民币10.62亿元。两者合计22.02亿元，略微超过财报中的21.72亿元（注：可能是四舍五入的问题）。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a04ed819585aeb583d65c071d329fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"></p><p><span>（来源：2020年一季报投资人电话沟通会）</span></p><p><b><span>综合来看，公司的现金及现金等价物和长短期投资问题不大。</span></b></p><p><span>作为一家在线教育公司，预收学费的业务特点使得其现金流表现还是很不错的。</span></p><p><span>2019年，跟谁学的经营活动净现金流为12.85亿元，自由现金流为12.24亿元，在过去三年里增幅很大。</span></p><p><span>而风云君翻看几家做空机构的报告，有相当一部分都在讨论刷单，但是刷单并不能使现金流出现大幅增长。</span></p><p><span>另外，最近三年公司的资本开支较少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ba3b25c5fbfcd2ce43def879510f81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\"></p><p><span>投资活动现金流的其他科目主要是购买短期、长期理财，或者理财产品到期。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0f3a11a1bed46a6b9c08a650c3f50b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\"></p><p><span>（来源：2019年年报）</span></p><p><b><span>所以，风云君认为跟谁学的现金流量表问题也不大。</span></b></p><p><span>在2019年，跟谁学回购了8670万元的股票，合1250万美元。</span></p><p><span>2020年的一季报中，公司宣布了一项为期2年（注：截至2022年5月6日）的股票回购计划，总回购金额不超过1.5亿美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b08b539c52b8e3ebaa858bba1e54658\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"169\"></p><p><span>是老虎还是Hello Kitty，到底差不差钱儿，就看公司后续回购中的实际买入动作了。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61660484a69bac22573a16d7943bd5e9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112858927","content_text":"相关阅读：跟谁学回应浑水做空：数据来源混乱，对公司业务无知现金最难造假，那我们就从现金入手吧。在香橼持续三次做空后，跟谁学 又被浑水盯上。5月18日，浑水再次发布做空报告称，跟谁学至少有80%的用户是机器人；并怀疑至少有80%的收入是造假的，甚至可能是90%以上，还称跟谁学欺瞒性地少报了费用。浑水还表示，董事长陈向东至少抵押了3.18亿美元的跟谁学股份，出借人是瑞士信贷。瑞信是瑞幸咖啡的重要保证金出借人，长期持有跟谁学股票的投资者面临的风险是，保证金出借人会大举抛售股票，导致股价暴跌。今年以来，因为“瑞幸咖啡造假事件”导致了对中概股诚信状况的集体焦虑，一大批中概股遭遇了大量的“趁火打劫”式的质疑和做空，场面堪称混乱——我们无意去讨论所谓的动机，也不愿以阴谋论揣度别人，专业的人干专业的事，我们，尊重事实，尊重规则：只要你铁证如山，我们必送上作为同行的崇高致敬。但是，基于某种情愫和职业上、专业上的敏感，我们认为事有蹊跷，有可待商榷和验证的余地。于是，我们准备抽取一家在这场混战中遭遇做空的中概股公司，使用市值风云的方法论，从公开信息、公开数据、通用方法论角度，进行财务和基本面的深度研究，以验证这波做空潮的真实水准。跟谁学，遭到连续做空，是本轮做空大战的焦点公司之一。我们就选取这家公司为研究标的，尽可能的庖丁解牛，厘清事实。一、风波亭里话风波跟谁学 成立于2014年，是一家主要从事K12在线教育的公司。公司于2019年6月上市，IPO价格为每股10.50美元。截至今年5月8日收盘，公司股价已经达到41.98美元，累计涨幅达到300%，给投资者带来的收益还是相当可观的。今年以来，做空跟谁学的主要是Grizzly Research、香橼（Citron）、天蝎创投等三家机构。其中以香橼的最为激烈，连发了三份报告，从虚增收入、获客成本等角度对其进行了质疑。真相究竟怎么样呢？风云君也非常感兴趣。在这篇文章里，风云君先对跟谁学的业务做简单的介绍，然后提出自己的方法论。在全部事实水落石出之前，风云君决定只做一个旁观者。二、业务模式跟谁学目前共有5个品牌：跟谁学、高途课堂、金囿学堂、成蹊商学院、微师。其中，跟谁学和高途课堂面向K12教育，是公司最主要的2个品牌；金囿学堂提供外语、专业和兴趣教育；成蹊商学院是公司为教培行业从业者开办的商学院；微师则是一个基于微信的互动学习平台。（来源：2020年一季度电话会议投资者报告）跟谁学最出名的就是双师大班在线教学。双师是指主讲老师和辅导老师，大班是说一个主讲老师可以对应上千人的学生。比如2019年，平均每个K12课程拥有1200名报名学生。（来源：官网）跟谁学在线教学的模式是，课程会在固定的开课时间进行线上直播，直播过后还可以看回放，但是回放有一定的有效期。（来源：官网）风云君看到这一模式，第一反应是得到App上的付费课程或者知乎Live。（来源：得到App）截至2019年底，跟谁学共有232名主讲老师，3736名辅导老师。辅导老师的职责主要是：与学生和家长互动，监督学习进程，在课上回答学生的问题，课后批改作业，与主讲老师合作提高满意度和续课的比例。可以说，辅导老师承担了传统教学中劳动密集的工作。三、经营数据下面我们来看几个数字。2019年，跟谁学的收入达到21.12亿元，同比增长432.3%。其中，80.7%的收入来自K12课程，17.9%的收入来自外语、专业和兴趣教育服务，1.2%的收入来自线下咨询课程，其他收入占比不足1%。（一）2019年大班策略开始奏效2019年，公司平台的总报名人次达到了274万，增速达到了258%。平均每个K12课程的报名人数达到1200人，同比翻倍。2017-2018年，平均每个K12课程的报名人次从400增加到600，增幅并没有2019年这么明显。这说明公司的大班课策略是从2019年开始明显奏效的。（二）正价课报名人次的比例影响毛利率根据公开信息，跟谁学提到课程单价在99-4870元之间（注：K12课程）。公司也把99元以上的称为正价课，99元以下的打折或免费课程的一般用于推广和营销。2019年，正价课报名人次为218.66万，占总报名人次的79.7%。这一比例在2018年经历了比较大的下滑，在2019年又反弹回来。可想而知，2018年“白嫖”的人更多了之后，毛利率一定是更低的。2018年，毛利率只有64.1%，低于2017、2019年。2019年的毛利率达到74.7%。（三）师生比在2019年有所下降截至2019年底，跟谁学共有主讲老师232人，辅导老师3736人。相比2018年，主讲老师增加了42%，辅导老师则是增加了961%！可见，辅导老师数量是大班教学的重要配套条件。另外，前十大主讲老师贡献收入的比例从2018年的46.6%下降到了2019年的36.3%。教育行业很喜欢用的一个指标是师生比。正价课报名人次与辅导老师的比例在2019年是585，也就是说平均每个辅导老师每年负责585人次的学生。这一比例相比2018年的1569有了大幅下降，师生比对学生的留存率非常重要。另外，这个数字看上去很高，不过由于跟谁学的课程周期一般只有几个月，所以同一时间辅导的学生人数并没有那么多。（四）2018年是K12线上教学“起风”的一年2019年，跟谁学的K12收入为17.07亿元，同比增长了486.7%。在这之前，好未来（TAL.N）的线上业务收入在2019财年（注：结束于2019年2月底的年度）就达到了29.14亿元，同比增长了156.6%。而新东方在线（01797.HK）的K12收入在2019财年（注：结束于2019年5月底的年度）也达到1.59亿元，同比增长80.8%。由于好未来和新东方在线2019财年的主要部分都在2018年，所以把两者与跟谁学的2018年数据做对比（注：好未来还没有披露2020财年的线上业务数据）。2018年，新东方在线也推出了双师模式的在线直播教学模式，不过仍然是20人的小班。这项业务被称为“东方优播”，增速要快于其他K12业务。（来源：新东方在线2019财年年报）下面我们来看看跟谁学的公司架构。四、公司架构跟谁学采用的是中概股典型的VIE架构，北京百家互联科技有限公司（注：简称百家互联）是其内地经营实体。根据2019年年报，公司董事长和CEO陈向东持有46.1%的股份及89.5%的投票权。百家互联的实缴注册资本为5500万元，2018年工商报告中显示的参保人数是491人。（来源：企查查）在2019年11月披露的二次发售招股书中，百家互联共有5个并表子公司，分别是：北京跟谁学科技有限公司；北京加紫科技有限公司；北京高途云集教育科技有限公司；北京百家成蹊教育科技有限公司；上海金囿教育科技有限公司。（2019年11月二次发售招股书）其中，北京跟谁学科技实缴注册资本100万元。北京加紫科技，实缴出资额500万元。根据天眼查，加紫科技有两项业务，分别是超级志愿和babyABC英语启蒙。（来源：天眼查）这两款APP风云君在豌豆荚中都能搜到。北京高途云集实缴注册资本1000万元。另外，北京百家成蹊的实缴注册资本为500万元。风云君在拉勾网上看到，成蹊商学院是面向教培行业从业者的商学院。成蹊商学院的目的应该是为公司获取更多的师资力量。（来源：https://www.lagou.com/jobs/6786719.html?source=pl&i=pl-0&show=4821c908e5f04c0a88c83179ed64eab5）上海金囿的实缴注册资本500万元。从官网可以看出，上海金囿是一家服务于金融领域考证以及金融知识学习的公司。（来源：官网）综合上面的信息，北京百家互联、北京高途云集是公司最主要的2个运营实体，其次是北京加紫科技、北京百家成蹊和上海金囿。在2020年4月3日披露的年报中，并表的子公司增加了2家，分别是2020年1月份新收购的郑州高途云集科技有限公司，以及山东跟谁学互联科技有限公司。（来源：2019年年报）其中，郑州高途的收购代价为3.34亿元，其主要资产是2栋已完工的办公楼和1栋建设中的办公楼。总楼面面积为6.33万平方米，约合5276元每平方米。（来源：2019年年报）山东跟谁学互联成立于2020年1月，实缴注册资本5000万元。近期，跟谁学还成立了太原、武汉、浙江三家地方性子公司。以上子公司均为100%控股。另外，跟谁学还有北京优联环球教育科技有限公司、成都菁苗教育科技股份有限公司两个重要的附属公司，分别持股30%、38%。（来源：企查查，2020.05.10）北京优联由跟谁学前员工熊骁于2014年创办，目前熊骁对其持股45%，是实际控制人。陈向东直接持股10%，间接通过上市公司持股13.59%（注：考虑陈向东在上市公司的股份为46.1%），合计23.59%。（来源：企查查）北京优联的品牌叫做“家长家”，是中国最大的家长学习平台，拥有《家长家早课堂》、《家长家大课堂》等课程。最后，成都菁苗是一家亲子户外素质培养平台，成立于2016年。北京百家互联持有38%的股份，是第二大股东，其中陈向东通过上市公司间接持股17.22%。（来源：企查查）五、增长和盈利2020年一季度，跟谁学的收入为12.98亿元，同比增长382.1%。公司的增长非常快，风云君在这里使用季度数据来衡量其成长性。从季度数据中能看出一个明显的特点，季度增速是从2018年四季度开始提高到400%左右。这也与前面“大班策略于2019年开始奏效”的说法相一致。我们再来看看环比数据，并且与现金收入对比来看。现金收入说的是当期实收的学费和来自平台上老师的会员费。2020年一季度，现金收入为13.74亿元，环比下降了12.9%。同季度的营收则环比增长了38.8%。在这之前，季度现金收入还有一次环比负增长。2019年一季度，现金收入为3亿元，环比下降了5.7%，当季营收环比增长了47.7%，而次季度仅增长了31.4%，是两年多来最慢的一次。收入确认的滞后性就体现在这里。跟谁学的电话会议中说，一季度和三季度一般是公司招收新学生的时期，二季度和四季度是续费窗口期。而且一季度和三季度的付费人次相对较低，所以现金收入也会比较少。（来源：2020年一季度电话会议）而从现金收入和正价课报名人次来看，两者的走势比较一致。2020年一季度，现金收入为13.74亿元，正价课报名人次为77.4万。盈利方面，2018年三季度跟谁学首次实现季度盈利。当季营业利润率和净利润率分别为0.1%、0.7%。2018年三季度-2020年一季度，季度毛利率基本上呈上升趋势，主要是因为规模效应。同时，跟谁学的营业利润率波动较大，2019年三季度还出现了营业利润的短暂亏损。这其中最大的变量就是营销费用率。2018年一季度至今，研发费用率、一般及行政费用率基本上呈下滑趋势，营销费用率则逐渐上升。2019年三季度的营业利润亏损就是由于营销费用率达到了59.3%。财报中对此的解释是为了获得更多用户以及提高品牌知名度。（来源：2019年三季报）跟谁学未来能否持续盈利，主要看的也是营销费用率能否稳定住。相比新东方在线，跟谁学的毛利率要更高：2018、2019年，跟谁学的毛利率分别为64.1%、74.7%。新东方在线K12业务2019财年（注：截至2019年5月底的年度）毛利率只有10.0%。在风云君看来，这主要是因为两者教学方式的不同。跟谁学的模式为双师大班在线教学，新东方在线的模式仍然是小班。（来源：东方优播官网）六、现金和投资收益网上已经有很多对做空报告的解读，风云君决定用自己的方法论来看一看。由于利润表的验证难度较大，风云君决定从资产负债表和现金流量表出发。截至2019年底，跟谁学的总资产为33.95亿元。其中，现金及现金等价物为7397万元，短期投资达到14.73亿元，长期投资达到11.88亿元。三者合计27.36亿元，占总资产的80.6%，比例非常大。风云君觉得有必要考察一下这一科目。公司的短期投资和长期投资基本上都是银行的理财产品，穿透到底层资产则是债权产品。2019年四季度，跟谁学从现金及现金等价物和短期理财产品中获得的收益为1000万元。用1000万元除以季度初和季度末的现金及现金等价物和短期投资的平均值，得出的年化收益率（注：再乘以4）为3.1%。（来源：2019年四季报）2020年一季度，跟谁学从现金及现金等价物、短期投资、长期投资中获得的收益为1260万元，年化收益率约为3.2%。此处的计算忽略掉长期投资，因为从资产负债表来看，短期投资的减少幅度远大于长期投资。（来源：2020年一季报）（来源：2020年一季报）总的来说，投资收益率还算合理。另外在今年一季度的投资人电话沟通会上，跟谁学还披露了现金及现金等价物的存放银行：公司在招行、建行、北京银行、民生银行的存款共计2.23亿元，在花旗银行的美元存款合人民币3.41亿元（注：按照今年3月31日的汇率）。两者合计5.65亿元，与财报中的总数一致。另外，公司存放在招行和民生银行的短期和长期投资共计11.4亿元，在花旗银行的美元投资合人民币10.62亿元。两者合计22.02亿元，略微超过财报中的21.72亿元（注：可能是四舍五入的问题）。（来源：2020年一季报投资人电话沟通会）综合来看，公司的现金及现金等价物和长短期投资问题不大。作为一家在线教育公司，预收学费的业务特点使得其现金流表现还是很不错的。2019年，跟谁学的经营活动净现金流为12.85亿元，自由现金流为12.24亿元，在过去三年里增幅很大。而风云君翻看几家做空机构的报告，有相当一部分都在讨论刷单，但是刷单并不能使现金流出现大幅增长。另外，最近三年公司的资本开支较少。投资活动现金流的其他科目主要是购买短期、长期理财，或者理财产品到期。（来源：2019年年报）所以，风云君认为跟谁学的现金流量表问题也不大。在2019年，跟谁学回购了8670万元的股票，合1250万美元。2020年的一季报中，公司宣布了一项为期2年（注：截至2022年5月6日）的股票回购计划，总回购金额不超过1.5亿美元。是老虎还是Hello 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