枫叶店的个人主页 - 老虎社区

枫叶店

枫叶店

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2019-10-17

$白银主连(SImain)$ 金属货币是所有法定货币的最低死敌，如果津巴布韦有个黄金白银交易所，当他发现人们比较喜欢持有黄金白银对抗通货膨胀，他就会印钱做空白银期货。

2021-02-03

$VIX波动率主连(VIXmain)$ 我是萌新只开了户，还没有入金，问:这个是指数吗，可以买卖做空吗

2019-11-08

$白银主连(SImain)$ 现在白银一片空头。美元降息，印钞机有要印钱，那为什么白银还是跌呢？？？什么逻辑？？？金属货币是所有法定货币的最低死敌，如果津巴布韦有个黄金白银交易所，当他发现人们比较喜欢持有黄金白银对抗通货膨胀，他就会印钱做空白银期货。意味着这个指数只是庄家开的一个盘口。持有黄金白银避险，如果市场白银被恶意做空了，那是好事呀，你买实物白银就好，实物白银，实物白银，实物白银。

2020-09-07

.FZ,Y, z0

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-07

;(d*))haap08h677 ，7

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-07

0

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-02

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 111

2020-01-07

不错

华尔街传奇人物的2020年“意外”清单出炉

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金市场或继续震荡 等待盘整结束\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-31 20:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3603487><strong>黄金头条</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>应用市场搜索并下载“黄金头条”APP，获取最新、最快、最牛的外汇、黄金、原油资讯和策略！\n黄金市场此前两周连跌的趋势终于没有继续下去，金价回到了1960美元/盎司上方。\n道明证券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示，眼下黄金市场最大的问题在于其盘整是否要结束了。\n“金价继续偏上行趋势，交易员们关注着技术面，一旦金价突破震荡企业，那么多头趋势将进一步发展。”\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3603487\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1e7ea56e-9951-483b-86c1-def06950248f.jpg","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 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17:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街传奇人物的2020年“意外”清单出炉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102549403","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"在去年取得了十大预期七个兑现的佳绩后，华尔街传奇人物、黑石集团私人财富解决方案部门副主席拜伦•韦恩连续第35年公布其最新年度“意外”清单，谈及自己对全球经济形势和美联储政策、中东局势、中美贸易谈判、美","content":"<p>在去年取得了十大预期七个兑现的佳绩后，华尔街传奇人物、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>集团私人财富解决方案部门副主席拜伦•韦恩连续第35年公布其最新年度“意外”清单，谈及自己对全球经济形势和美联储政策、中东局势、中美贸易谈判、美国大选、英国退欧、股债走势、以及热门行业和公司等热点问题可能出现意外状况的看法。与普通投资者认为此类事件发生几率只有三分之一不同，拜伦认为这些事件的发生几率超过50%。</p>\n<p><span>辞旧迎新之际，黑石集团(Blackstone Group)私人财富解决方案部门副主席拜伦•韦恩(Byron Wien)按照传统发布了其在华尔街备受关注的年度“意外”清单，这一次他是与黑石集团私人财富解决方案部门首席投资策略师乔•泽德(Joe Zidle)一道撰写的这份榜单。</span></p>\n<p><span>自1986年首次发布“意外”清单以来，这是现年86岁的拜伦第35次对来年可能发生的经济、金融市场和政治意外事件发表自己的看法。他去年的战绩斐然，十大预期中有七个都成真，譬如他成功预测到全球经济疲软促使美联储停止加息(美联储年内降息三次)，标普500指数强劲上涨(他预期涨幅为15%，与实际涨幅29%相差不远)、以及中国股市上涨和美元持平。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>普通投资者认为此类事件发生的几率只有三分之一，但拜伦却认为这些事情是“有可能的”，发生几率超过50%。以下是2020年度“十大意外”清单：</span></b></p>\n<p><span>1. 经济形势逊于普遍预期，但成功避免衰退。美联储主席鲍威尔可能降息至1%。如果没有达成一个全面的贸易协议，美国总统特朗普将竭尽所能地刺激经济增长，以防止经济衰退。他会下调薪资税，让消费者手中能有更多钱。</span></p>\n<p><span>2. 经济制裁带来的痛苦让伊朗胆子变得更大，它将利用美国在海外领导力削弱的机会，加大了对以色列和沙特阿拉伯的敌对行动。霍尔木兹海峡关闭，油价(西德克萨斯中质原油)飙升至每桶70美元以上。</span></p>\n<p><span>3. 不会达成限制中国获取知识产权能力的第二阶段贸易协议。国家利益导致了科技割据。在5G和其他技术硬件方面拥有各自的标准对全球经济的未来是个坏消息。“脱钩”趋势在贸易谈判中获得推力。美中经济的相互依赖正在减弱。</span></p>\n<p><span>4. 不平等和气候变化成为重要的选举主题，但中间派的观点成为主流。众议院向参议院提交了弹劾条款，但特朗普没有被定罪，也不会被免职。弹劾过程中披露的信息多得足以促使特朗普的部分支持者、以及许多独立人士在2020年各州选举中转而支持民主党候选人。民主党将在11月赢得参议院选举。</span></p>\n<p><span>5. 在达成了一项可行的英国退欧协议后，英国成为了脱离欧盟的赢家。英股上涨，英镑反弹。由于前景明朗，外国直接投资恢复，英国从过渡期较长中受益，经济增长率超过2%。欧盟经济依然疲软，除英国以外的欧洲市场表现逊于美国和亚洲。</span></p>\n<p><span>6. 尽管一些观察人士认为估值过高，但投资者热情高涨推动美股标普500指数在2020年某时突破3500点。盈利只增长了5%，标普500指数市盈率依然很高，因为货币政策宽松等。波动性增加，全年有几次市场回调幅度超过5%。</span></p>\n<p><span>7. 债券泡沫开始破裂，但海外负利率仍在继续。尽管美国经济正在放缓，但10年期美国国债收益率接近2.5%，收益率曲线也在变陡。日本和中国停止买入美国国债。供需状况、而不是经济基本面或通胀形势推高了国债收益率。</span></p>\n<p><span>8. 大型科技公司面临越来越多的政治审查和社会抵触。市场领导者、某些“FAANG”股票的表现一度弱于大盘，而权重相同的标普500指数成分股的表现则好于大盘。</span></p>\n<p><span>9. 自动驾驶汽车的前景往后推迟。一系列实验车辆事故导致一家大型制造商或科技公司发表声明称，他们将不再开发自动驾驶技术。</span></p>\n<p><span>10. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>737 Max的问题得到解决，并开始交付。该机型使航空公司能够更有效地运作并增加利润，这些公司的股票成为市场领导者。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>其他意外事件</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>每年总有一些意外事件没有进入韦恩的十大意外榜单，因为我们要么认为它们不像清单上的事件那样重要，要么我们对这些可能发生的事件感到不满。以下是2020年度意外清单：</span></b></p>\n<p><span>11. 民粹主义和内向思维继续在全球蔓延，尤其是在新兴市场。无政府状态和不和谐蔓延到世界各地，造成金融市场动荡。投资者规避新兴市场本币债券，从而推高了利差。</span></p>\n<p><span>12. 在与特朗普再次会晤后，朝鲜同意暂停其核计划，但不会放弃现有的核库存。金正恩停止了射程可覆盖美国本土的远程导弹的研制工作。朝鲜仍然是一个威胁，但不是迫在眉睫的危险。</span></p>\n<p><span>13. 对印度经济危机的担忧有所缓解。新兴市场的表现依然参差不齐，但印度已从增长放缓中复苏。莫迪政府继续推行有利于企业的经济改革，预计经济将增长6%，市场将上涨20%。</span></p>\n<p><span>14. 尽管油价上涨，俄罗斯的经济问题仍在加剧。结果，社会动荡开始蔓延。普京与其寡头圈子的亲密关系成了一个问题，他作为世界领导人的影响力也在减弱。为了在世界舞台上保持自己的地位，他与中国走得更近了。</span></p>\n<p><span>15. 人工智能开始被视为纸老虎。人工智能带来就业末日的预言并未兑现，就像20年前千年虫并未破坏美国经济一样。制造业已经自动化了，使用基于计算机的应用程序也很难消除服务业工作。</span></p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街传奇人物的2020年“意外”清单出炉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街传奇人物的2020年“意外”清单出炉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-07 17:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MRoXg7yo2gYjLP87KnNc0Q><strong>人民币交易与研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在去年取得了十大预期七个兑现的佳绩后，华尔街传奇人物、黑石集团私人财富解决方案部门副主席拜伦•韦恩连续第35年公布其最新年度“意外”清单，谈及自己对全球经济形势和美联储政策、中东局势、中美贸易谈判、美国大选、英国退欧、股债走势、以及热门行业和公司等热点问题可能出现意外状况的看法。与普通投资者认为此类事件发生几率只有三分之一不同，拜伦认为这些事件的发生几率超过50%。\n辞旧迎新之际，黑石集团(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MRoXg7yo2gYjLP87KnNc0Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c56ea9f4571ab8517325db0c66a1a81","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MRoXg7yo2gYjLP87KnNc0Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102549403","content_text":"在去年取得了十大预期七个兑现的佳绩后，华尔街传奇人物、黑石集团私人财富解决方案部门副主席拜伦•韦恩连续第35年公布其最新年度“意外”清单，谈及自己对全球经济形势和美联储政策、中东局势、中美贸易谈判、美国大选、英国退欧、股债走势、以及热门行业和公司等热点问题可能出现意外状况的看法。与普通投资者认为此类事件发生几率只有三分之一不同，拜伦认为这些事件的发生几率超过50%。\n辞旧迎新之际，黑石集团(Blackstone Group)私人财富解决方案部门副主席拜伦•韦恩(Byron Wien)按照传统发布了其在华尔街备受关注的年度“意外”清单，这一次他是与黑石集团私人财富解决方案部门首席投资策略师乔•泽德(Joe Zidle)一道撰写的这份榜单。\n自1986年首次发布“意外”清单以来，这是现年86岁的拜伦第35次对来年可能发生的经济、金融市场和政治意外事件发表自己的看法。他去年的战绩斐然，十大预期中有七个都成真，譬如他成功预测到全球经济疲软促使美联储停止加息(美联储年内降息三次)，标普500指数强劲上涨(他预期涨幅为15%，与实际涨幅29%相差不远)、以及中国股市上涨和美元持平。\n普通投资者认为此类事件发生的几率只有三分之一，但拜伦却认为这些事情是“有可能的”，发生几率超过50%。以下是2020年度“十大意外”清单：\n1. 经济形势逊于普遍预期，但成功避免衰退。美联储主席鲍威尔可能降息至1%。如果没有达成一个全面的贸易协议，美国总统特朗普将竭尽所能地刺激经济增长，以防止经济衰退。他会下调薪资税，让消费者手中能有更多钱。\n2. 经济制裁带来的痛苦让伊朗胆子变得更大，它将利用美国在海外领导力削弱的机会，加大了对以色列和沙特阿拉伯的敌对行动。霍尔木兹海峡关闭，油价(西德克萨斯中质原油)飙升至每桶70美元以上。\n3. 不会达成限制中国获取知识产权能力的第二阶段贸易协议。国家利益导致了科技割据。在5G和其他技术硬件方面拥有各自的标准对全球经济的未来是个坏消息。“脱钩”趋势在贸易谈判中获得推力。美中经济的相互依赖正在减弱。\n4. 不平等和气候变化成为重要的选举主题，但中间派的观点成为主流。众议院向参议院提交了弹劾条款，但特朗普没有被定罪，也不会被免职。弹劾过程中披露的信息多得足以促使特朗普的部分支持者、以及许多独立人士在2020年各州选举中转而支持民主党候选人。民主党将在11月赢得参议院选举。\n5. 在达成了一项可行的英国退欧协议后，英国成为了脱离欧盟的赢家。英股上涨，英镑反弹。由于前景明朗，外国直接投资恢复，英国从过渡期较长中受益，经济增长率超过2%。欧盟经济依然疲软，除英国以外的欧洲市场表现逊于美国和亚洲。\n6. 尽管一些观察人士认为估值过高，但投资者热情高涨推动美股标普500指数在2020年某时突破3500点。盈利只增长了5%，标普500指数市盈率依然很高，因为货币政策宽松等。波动性增加，全年有几次市场回调幅度超过5%。\n7. 债券泡沫开始破裂，但海外负利率仍在继续。尽管美国经济正在放缓，但10年期美国国债收益率接近2.5%，收益率曲线也在变陡。日本和中国停止买入美国国债。供需状况、而不是经济基本面或通胀形势推高了国债收益率。\n8. 大型科技公司面临越来越多的政治审查和社会抵触。市场领导者、某些“FAANG”股票的表现一度弱于大盘，而权重相同的标普500指数成分股的表现则好于大盘。\n9. 自动驾驶汽车的前景往后推迟。一系列实验车辆事故导致一家大型制造商或科技公司发表声明称，他们将不再开发自动驾驶技术。\n10. 波音737 Max的问题得到解决，并开始交付。该机型使航空公司能够更有效地运作并增加利润，这些公司的股票成为市场领导者。\n其他意外事件\n每年总有一些意外事件没有进入韦恩的十大意外榜单，因为我们要么认为它们不像清单上的事件那样重要，要么我们对这些可能发生的事件感到不满。以下是2020年度意外清单：\n11. 民粹主义和内向思维继续在全球蔓延，尤其是在新兴市场。无政府状态和不和谐蔓延到世界各地，造成金融市场动荡。投资者规避新兴市场本币债券，从而推高了利差。\n12. 在与特朗普再次会晤后，朝鲜同意暂停其核计划，但不会放弃现有的核库存。金正恩停止了射程可覆盖美国本土的远程导弹的研制工作。朝鲜仍然是一个威胁，但不是迫在眉睫的危险。\n13. 对印度经济危机的担忧有所缓解。新兴市场的表现依然参差不齐，但印度已从增长放缓中复苏。莫迪政府继续推行有利于企业的经济改革，预计经济将增长6%，市场将上涨20%。\n14. 尽管油价上涨，俄罗斯的经济问题仍在加剧。结果，社会动荡开始蔓延。普京与其寡头圈子的亲密关系成了一个问题，他作为世界领导人的影响力也在减弱。为了在世界舞台上保持自己的地位，他与中国走得更近了。\n15. 人工智能开始被视为纸老虎。人工智能带来就业末日的预言并未兑现，就像20年前千年虫并未破坏美国经济一样。制造业已经自动化了，使用基于计算机的应用程序也很难消除服务业工作。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}