第八大奇迹的个人主页 - 老虎社区

第八大奇迹

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第八大奇迹

2021-06-11

$BOSS直聘(BZ)$谢谢老虎的大鸡腿，老虎股价[看涨] [看涨] [看涨]

第八大奇迹

2021-02-16

$容联云(RAAS)$看公司资料，忽然发现老虎的公司持股差不多560万股？这是怎么回事？这个需要老虎证券自己出来解释一下才行

第八大奇迹

2021-06-22

$满帮(YMM)$天啊，看来货源很紧，发行量比boss多，中签市值少了近75%。还有，6.18中石化突击入股做战略投资者，感觉是大肉喔[财迷]

第八大奇迹

2021-01-15

$医渡科技(02158)$有缘江湖再见，祝大家发财[鼓掌] [鼓掌] [鼓掌]

第八大奇迹

2021-01-01

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 祝大家2021年收益率步步高升[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

第八大奇迹

2020-06-26

$声网(API)$ 23：15 竞价见45......

第八大奇迹

2019-08-04

$万达体育(WSG)$还好最后一刻取消申购

第八大奇迹

2019-07-27

$万达体育(WSG)$当初的招股价不是开玩笑？

第八大奇迹

2020-06-26

$声网(API)$ 从传奇生物，到燃石医学，再到声网，最近老虎证券派的红包已经很不错啦。

第八大奇迹

2021-02-05

$流利说(LAIX)$@小贝导演特别感谢老兄的帖子，让我注意到了这只股，复盘了一下，觉得很早以前有资金潜伏的感觉，业绩什么的有时候在这里并没有用，炒作就完事了，2块多有钱赚也没卖，到1.8了也曾经浮亏过，正如所说的，以小亏搏大赚，少量资金参与玩一下还是很好的。

第八大奇迹

2022-02-21

美团只是背黑锅的，怎么不降低燃油税呢？

观点 | 下调商户服务费标准对美团的影响有多大？

第八大奇迹

2019-08-28

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$这段时间热闹的很啊，希望人人都抓准节奏赚大钱

第八大奇迹

2019-06-08

$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 100下空单的人肠子都悔青了

第八大奇迹

2019-08-29

$斗鱼(DOYU)$分析师看好，给力点

第八大奇迹

2022-06-19

潮水退去而已[冷漠]

抱歉，原内容已删除

第八大奇迹

2021-01-21

$RLX科技(RLX)$环球账户的认购价格比综合贵太多，看来有必要换一下，期待复制思摩尔的节奏！

第八大奇迹

2019-08-19

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$风险偏向变了，估计要跌。

第八大奇迹

2019-06-09

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 下次中概股再有打新需要谨慎点了

第八大奇迹

2021-10-28

good

Why it's wrong to compare today's inflation surge to 1970s-style 'stagflation'

第八大奇迹

2021-06-19

才刚开始呢，调整能这么快好吗，现金为王吧，下半年，到时机会多的是。

抱歉，原内容已删除

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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662185961","repostId":"1178436734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178436734","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666254914,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178436734?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-20 16:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"市场综述 | 半导体板块逆市大涨！腾讯续刷逾5年新低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178436734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"港股三大指数均创调整新低；沪指冲高回落，北向资金连续4日净卖出；美股指期货、欧股全线走低；原油、黄金小幅上涨；特斯拉等多只热门美股盘前走低>>>港股港股午后短线拉升但未能走出反转行情，三大指数再度下跌","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>港股三大指数均创调整新低；沪指冲高回落，北向资金连续4日净卖出；美股指期货、欧股全线走低；原油、黄金小幅上涨；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等多只热门美股盘前走低&gt;&gt;&gt;</blockquote><p><b>港股</b></p><p>港股午后短线拉升但未能走出反转行情，三大指数再度下跌吞没此前反弹涨幅，并创下调整低价。截止收盘，恒指跌1.4%下挫231点，国指跌1.53%，恒生科技指数跌2.37%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd56e9656e1525703a46c0f465e751c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，受美股中概股大跌影响，回港中概股齐挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09688\">再鼎医药-B</a>跌超12%表现最差，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-W</a>等纷纷跟跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>跌近5%创2017年5月以来新低；电力股、手游股跌幅靠前，汽车股跌势不止，“蔚小理”盘中均创上市新低价；餐饮股、教育股、家电股、特斯拉概念股、内房股与物管股纷纷走低。另一方面，半导体股全天表现强势，航空股、中资券商股、石油股、军工股午后拉升上扬。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100e71e2c8d5a76a46c7eec19edeb55b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A股</b></p><p>大盘全天探底回升，但三大指数仍小幅下跌，创业板指领跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.31%，深成指跌0.56%，创业板指跌1%。北向资金全天净卖出62.23亿元，连续4日净卖出，其中沪股通净卖出37.44亿元，深股通净卖出24.8亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874e119fa237da9b5bf48154f88c9a65\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，半导体板块全天强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688130\">晶华微</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688252\">天德钰</a>20CM涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002371\">北方华创</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002077\">大港股份</a>等多股涨停。信创概念股再度活跃，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002528\">英飞拓</a>7连板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000066\">中国长城</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">吉大正元</a>涨停。旅游酒店股午后走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002707\">众信旅游</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000721\">西安饮食</a>涨停。下跌方面，锂电、光伏等赛道股陷入调整，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002101\">广东鸿图</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003027\">同兴环保</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002965\">祥鑫科技</a>等跌停，两市跌停个股相比前几日明显增多。此外高位股表现分化，两市炸板率近40%，连续两日维持较高水平。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超2900只个股下跌。沪深两市今日成交额8053亿，较上个交易日放量469亿。板块方面，先进封装、半导体、旅游、光刻胶等板块涨幅居前，一体化压铸、港口航运、钠离子电池、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739f2bfcf933bf0d492c0b0a2b021740\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>半导体板块</span></p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.29%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.02%，标普500指数期货跌0.65%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/303c19e91dba387898ba14b597022bbd\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前跌超6%，第三季度营收同比增长56%至214.54亿美元，不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>盘前涨2.56%，第三季度营收同比增长6.5%至141.1亿美元，三大主要业务收入均超市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>盘前大跌近15%，第三季度营业利润同比下降23.94%至71亿瑞典克朗，毛利率降至41.4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>盘前跌近8%，第三季度营收同比减少8.4%至28.5亿美元，意外录得净亏损7.46亿美元。</p><p><b>欧股</b></p><p>欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌0.8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.16%，法国CAC40跌0.08%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f3450b8436d9247e1b586341b04484\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货震荡走高，截止发稿，WTI原油报85.88美元/桶，涨1.61%；布油现报93.49美元/桶，涨1.17%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c7fd9f73df65ee1e79651a5e7c9be2\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7757e13f636c6e69b9274f49b0ff56\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货小幅上涨，现涨0.16%，报1636.8美元/盎司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7c79965284856a66e9e1c5d857bd58\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场综述 | 半导体板块逆市大涨！腾讯续刷逾5年新低</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述 | 半导体板块逆市大涨！腾讯续刷逾5年新低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-20 16:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>港股三大指数均创调整新低；沪指冲高回落，北向资金连续4日净卖出；美股指期货、欧股全线走低；原油、黄金小幅上涨；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等多只热门美股盘前走低&gt;&gt;&gt;</blockquote><p><b>港股</b></p><p>港股午后短线拉升但未能走出反转行情，三大指数再度下跌吞没此前反弹涨幅，并创下调整低价。截止收盘，恒指跌1.4%下挫231点，国指跌1.53%，恒生科技指数跌2.37%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd56e9656e1525703a46c0f465e751c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，受美股中概股大跌影响，回港中概股齐挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09688\">再鼎医药-B</a>跌超12%表现最差，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-W</a>等纷纷跟跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>跌近5%创2017年5月以来新低；电力股、手游股跌幅靠前，汽车股跌势不止，“蔚小理”盘中均创上市新低价；餐饮股、教育股、家电股、特斯拉概念股、内房股与物管股纷纷走低。另一方面，半导体股全天表现强势，航空股、中资券商股、石油股、军工股午后拉升上扬。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100e71e2c8d5a76a46c7eec19edeb55b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A股</b></p><p>大盘全天探底回升，但三大指数仍小幅下跌，创业板指领跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.31%，深成指跌0.56%，创业板指跌1%。北向资金全天净卖出62.23亿元，连续4日净卖出，其中沪股通净卖出37.44亿元，深股通净卖出24.8亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874e119fa237da9b5bf48154f88c9a65\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>盘面上，半导体板块全天强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688130\">晶华微</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688252\">天德钰</a>20CM涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002371\">北方华创</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002077\">大港股份</a>等多股涨停。信创概念股再度活跃，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002528\">英飞拓</a>7连板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000066\">中国长城</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">吉大正元</a>涨停。旅游酒店股午后走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002707\">众信旅游</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000721\">西安饮食</a>涨停。下跌方面，锂电、光伏等赛道股陷入调整，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002101\">广东鸿图</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003027\">同兴环保</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002965\">祥鑫科技</a>等跌停，两市跌停个股相比前几日明显增多。此外高位股表现分化，两市炸板率近40%，连续两日维持较高水平。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超2900只个股下跌。沪深两市今日成交额8053亿，较上个交易日放量469亿。板块方面，先进封装、半导体、旅游、光刻胶等板块涨幅居前，一体化压铸、港口航运、钠离子电池、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739f2bfcf933bf0d492c0b0a2b021740\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>半导体板块</span></p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.29%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.02%，标普500指数期货跌0.65%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/303c19e91dba387898ba14b597022bbd\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前跌超6%，第三季度营收同比增长56%至214.54亿美元，不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>盘前涨2.56%，第三季度营收同比增长6.5%至141.1亿美元，三大主要业务收入均超市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>盘前大跌近15%，第三季度营业利润同比下降23.94%至71亿瑞典克朗，毛利率降至41.4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>盘前跌近8%，第三季度营收同比减少8.4%至28.5亿美元，意外录得净亏损7.46亿美元。</p><p><b>欧股</b></p><p>欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌0.8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.16%，法国CAC40跌0.08%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f3450b8436d9247e1b586341b04484\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货震荡走高，截止发稿，WTI原油报85.88美元/桶，涨1.61%；布油现报93.49美元/桶，涨1.17%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c7fd9f73df65ee1e79651a5e7c9be2\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7757e13f636c6e69b9274f49b0ff56\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货小幅上涨，现涨0.16%，报1636.8美元/盎司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7c79965284856a66e9e1c5d857bd58\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","IE00BF5LJ272.USD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Global Emerging Markets A Acc USD","LU0320764755.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0431992006.USD":"摩根大通新兴市场机会A（acc）","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","00700":"腾讯控股","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK1591":"就地过年概念","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","LU0348788117.USD":"ALLIANZ EMERGING ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","IE00BGV7N243.SGD":"FSSA Global Emerging Markets Focus I Acc SGD","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","BK1517":"云办公","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK1502":"双十一","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","IE00B543WZ88.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1531":"手游股","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0043850808.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178436734","content_text":"港股三大指数均创调整新低；沪指冲高回落，北向资金连续4日净卖出；美股指期货、欧股全线走低；原油、黄金小幅上涨；特斯拉等多只热门美股盘前走低>>>港股港股午后短线拉升但未能走出反转行情，三大指数再度下跌吞没此前反弹涨幅，并创下调整低价。截止收盘，恒指跌1.4%下挫231点，国指跌1.53%，恒生科技指数跌2.37%。盘面上，受美股中概股大跌影响，回港中概股齐挫，再鼎医药-B跌超12%表现最差，网易-S、百度集团-SW、哔哩哔哩-W等纷纷跟跌，腾讯控股跌近5%创2017年5月以来新低；电力股、手游股跌幅靠前，汽车股跌势不止，“蔚小理”盘中均创上市新低价；餐饮股、教育股、家电股、特斯拉概念股、内房股与物管股纷纷走低。另一方面，半导体股全天表现强势，航空股、中资券商股、石油股、军工股午后拉升上扬。A股大盘全天探底回升，但三大指数仍小幅下跌，创业板指领跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.31%，深成指跌0.56%，创业板指跌1%。北向资金全天净卖出62.23亿元，连续4日净卖出，其中沪股通净卖出37.44亿元，深股通净卖出24.8亿元。盘面上，半导体板块全天强势，晶华微、天德钰20CM涨停，北方华创、大港股份等多股涨停。信创概念股再度活跃，英飞拓7连板，中国长城、吉大正元涨停。旅游酒店股午后走强，众信旅游、西安饮食涨停。下跌方面，锂电、光伏等赛道股陷入调整，广东鸿图、同兴环保、祥鑫科技等跌停，两市跌停个股相比前几日明显增多。此外高位股表现分化，两市炸板率近40%，连续两日维持较高水平。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超2900只个股下跌。沪深两市今日成交额8053亿，较上个交易日放量469亿。板块方面，先进封装、半导体、旅游、光刻胶等板块涨幅居前，一体化压铸、港口航运、钠离子电池、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。半导体板块美股美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.29%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.02%，标普500指数期货跌0.65%。特斯拉盘前跌超6%，第三季度营收同比增长56%至214.54亿美元，不及市场预期。IBM盘前涨2.56%，第三季度营收同比增长6.5%至141.1亿美元，三大主要业务收入均超市场预期。爱立信盘前大跌近15%，第三季度营业利润同比下降23.94%至71亿瑞典克朗，毛利率降至41.4%。美国铝业盘前跌近8%，第三季度营收同比减少8.4%至28.5亿美元，意外录得净亏损7.46亿美元。欧股欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌0.8%，英国富时100跌0.16%，法国CAC40跌0.08%。原油原油期货震荡走高，截止发稿，WTI原油报85.88美元/桶，涨1.61%；布油现报93.49美元/桶，涨1.17%。黄金黄金期货小幅上涨，现涨0.16%，报1636.8美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":688055755,"gmtCreate":1657250003382,"gmtModify":1704866995966,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老头子觉得会再次发生能源危机？","listText":"老头子觉得会再次发生能源危机？","text":"老头子觉得会再次发生能源危机？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688055755","repostId":"2249639401","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249639401","pubTimestamp":1657238893,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2249639401?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-08 08:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特继续带节奏！伯克希尔哈撒韦又双叒叕增持西方石油","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249639401","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯克希尔哈撒韦在7月5至6日期间，再次增持西方石油股票12,042,470股，也就意味着巴菲特至此已拥有西方石油18.7%的股份。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦在7月5至6日期间，再次增持西方石油股票12,042,470股，也就意味着巴菲特至此已拥有西方石油18.7%的股份。</blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>究竟是有多大魔力，引得“股神”巴菲特又双叒叕增持！</p><p>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最新的文件显示，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦在7月5至6日期间，再次增持西方石油股票12,042,470股，买入的价格介于57.26-59.05美元</b>，平均价格为57.94美元/股，也就意味着<b>巴菲特至此已拥有西方石油18.7%的股份</b>。</p><p>回顾一下巴菲特今年以来在西方石油公司的频繁投入史：</p><ul><li>今年2月末，巴菲特在阅读了西方石油公司2月25日第四季度财报电话会议的记录后，在5天累计出手45亿美元买入了该公司近10%的股份。</li><li>在6月17-22日期间，伯克希尔哈撒韦买入955万股西方石油公司的股票，买入的价格介于每股54.96-56.42美元，使得直接持股规模达到1.527亿股。仅仅相隔一天，文件显示其在6月23日又买入79.4389万股股票，持股比例增至16.4%，每股价格在55.39-56.09美元之间，耗资约为4400万美元。</li><li>6月的最后一周，巴菲特继续加仓花费5.82亿美元买入西方石油990万股股票，总持股比例攀升至17.4%，较第二大股东Vanguard的持股量高出约60%。</li></ul><p>当然巴菲特对于西方石油的潜在持仓量远高于这个数字。因为伯克希尔还拥有10万股西方石油优先股，总价价值100亿美元。公司还有拥有8400万股认股权证，这些认股权证是在西方石油公司2019年收购阿纳达科公司（Anadarko）的交易中获得的，当时伯克希尔为这笔交易提供了资金。</p><p>今年2月巴菲特就坦言，西方石油的运营进展、债务偿还、股息上涨以及专注于产生长期、可持续的自由现金流等多个方面都在吸引他。在今年的股东大会上，巴菲特曾被问及为何重仓持有石油股。巴菲特当时表示，目前美国政府有不少战略石油储备，现在大家可能会觉得美国有这么多石油储备是好事：</p><blockquote>但仔细想想，现在的储备其实依然不够多，三到五年就可能没了，你也不知道三、五年后会怎样。</blockquote><p>股神真的料事如神。拜登政府今年3月底宣布，未来六个月美国将每天释放100万桶战略石油储备，共释放1.8亿桶石油，创美国自1974年建立石油储备计划以来最大规模释放量，截止上月末美国战略石油储备跌破5亿桶大关，为36年来最低。华尔街见闻今日文章还提及，原油短缺、拜登到处找油之际，数百万桶美国战略石油储备还被运往国外。</p><p>华尔街分析人士猜测，巴菲特大概率会举牌西方石油，甚至最终收购整个公司。正如投行Truist Securities董事总经理Neal Dingamm此前表示：</p><blockquote>一旦西方石油公司成为投资级公司，巴菲特很有可能买下西方石油剩余三分之二的股权。而西方石油很快就会成为投资级公司，其债务可能很快降至200亿美元以下，预计在今年晚些时候就能达到。</blockquote><p>截至目前，西方石油今年累计涨幅已达97.91%，总市值升至576.09亿美元。评级网站TipRanks数据显示，当前华尔街分析师对该股的平均目标价看至74美元，较其周四收盘价格潜在上涨空间超20%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c247d82666e9c20229ad6ef62c62314\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特继续带节奏！伯克希尔哈撒韦又双叒叕增持西方石油</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特继续带节奏！伯克希尔哈撒韦又双叒叕增持西方石油\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-08 08:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664177><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦在7月5至6日期间，再次增持西方石油股票12,042,470股，也就意味着巴菲特至此已拥有西方石油18.7%的股份。西方石油究竟是有多大魔力，引得“股神”巴菲特又双叒叕增持！美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最新的文件显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦在7月5至6日期间，再次增持西方石油股票12,042,470股，买入的价格介于57.26-59.05美元，平均价格为57.94美元/股，也就意味着巴菲特...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664177\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fc6653331207c2a5a223a11772b579","relate_stocks":{"OXY":"西方石油","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664177","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249639401","content_text":"伯克希尔哈撒韦在7月5至6日期间，再次增持西方石油股票12,042,470股，也就意味着巴菲特至此已拥有西方石油18.7%的股份。西方石油究竟是有多大魔力，引得“股神”巴菲特又双叒叕增持！美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最新的文件显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦在7月5至6日期间，再次增持西方石油股票12,042,470股，买入的价格介于57.26-59.05美元，平均价格为57.94美元/股，也就意味着巴菲特至此已拥有西方石油18.7%的股份。回顾一下巴菲特今年以来在西方石油公司的频繁投入史：今年2月末，巴菲特在阅读了西方石油公司2月25日第四季度财报电话会议的记录后，在5天累计出手45亿美元买入了该公司近10%的股份。在6月17-22日期间，伯克希尔哈撒韦买入955万股西方石油公司的股票，买入的价格介于每股54.96-56.42美元，使得直接持股规模达到1.527亿股。仅仅相隔一天，文件显示其在6月23日又买入79.4389万股股票，持股比例增至16.4%，每股价格在55.39-56.09美元之间，耗资约为4400万美元。6月的最后一周，巴菲特继续加仓花费5.82亿美元买入西方石油990万股股票，总持股比例攀升至17.4%，较第二大股东Vanguard的持股量高出约60%。当然巴菲特对于西方石油的潜在持仓量远高于这个数字。因为伯克希尔还拥有10万股西方石油优先股，总价价值100亿美元。公司还有拥有8400万股认股权证，这些认股权证是在西方石油公司2019年收购阿纳达科公司（Anadarko）的交易中获得的，当时伯克希尔为这笔交易提供了资金。今年2月巴菲特就坦言，西方石油的运营进展、债务偿还、股息上涨以及专注于产生长期、可持续的自由现金流等多个方面都在吸引他。在今年的股东大会上，巴菲特曾被问及为何重仓持有石油股。巴菲特当时表示，目前美国政府有不少战略石油储备，现在大家可能会觉得美国有这么多石油储备是好事：但仔细想想，现在的储备其实依然不够多，三到五年就可能没了，你也不知道三、五年后会怎样。股神真的料事如神。拜登政府今年3月底宣布，未来六个月美国将每天释放100万桶战略石油储备，共释放1.8亿桶石油，创美国自1974年建立石油储备计划以来最大规模释放量，截止上月末美国战略石油储备跌破5亿桶大关，为36年来最低。华尔街见闻今日文章还提及，原油短缺、拜登到处找油之际，数百万桶美国战略石油储备还被运往国外。华尔街分析人士猜测，巴菲特大概率会举牌西方石油，甚至最终收购整个公司。正如投行Truist Securities董事总经理Neal Dingamm此前表示：一旦西方石油公司成为投资级公司，巴菲特很有可能买下西方石油剩余三分之二的股权。而西方石油很快就会成为投资级公司，其债务可能很快降至200亿美元以下，预计在今年晚些时候就能达到。截至目前，西方石油今年累计涨幅已达97.91%，总市值升至576.09亿美元。评级网站TipRanks数据显示，当前华尔街分析师对该股的平均目标价看至74美元，较其周四收盘价格潜在上涨空间超20%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689677168,"gmtCreate":1655618341656,"gmtModify":1704862752128,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"潮水退去而已[冷漠]&nbsp;","listText":"潮水退去而已[冷漠]&nbsp;","text":"潮水退去而已[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689677168","repostId":"2244484634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634614320,"gmtCreate":1647478321279,"gmtModify":1647478321279,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;","listText":"[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;","text":"[666] [666] [666] [666] [666]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634614320","repostId":"1195388002","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195388002","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1647475410,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195388002?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-17 08:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨 | 美股继续走高！中概股上演大奇迹日","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195388002","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股有惊无险继续走高，中概狂飙，拼多多暴涨56%，伦镍复牌首日跌停；②美联储如期加息25个基点，暗示今年此后六次会议均加息；③黄金四连跌创逾两周新低，美联储会议后金价拉涨；④外媒称俄乌正在起草","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①美股有惊无险继续走高，中概狂飙，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>暴涨56%，伦镍复牌首日跌停；②美联储如期加息25个基点，暗示今年此后六次会议均加息；③黄金四连跌创逾两周新低，美联储会议后金价拉涨；④外媒称俄乌正在起草停火撤军计划，俄方称任何披露都为时过早。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p>1、加息靴子落地！美股收涨纳指涨近4% <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>大涨超80%领衔中概股反攻</p><p>美联储公布加息25个基点符合市场预期，美股三大股指集体收涨。截止收盘，道指涨1.55%，标普500指数涨2.24%，纳指涨3.77%，为2020年11月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p>在俄乌谈判积极进展的推动下，美股开盘后一路走高，中国支持市场的行动也提振了中概股。不过盘中美联储如期加息之后，道指、标普500指数一度转跌，但最终鲍威尔“力挽狂澜”， 尾盘股指集体刷新日高。</p><p>2、中概股周三继续上演“大奇迹日” 知乎暴涨超79% 拼多多飙升逾56%</p><p>热门中概股继昨日大幅攀升后，周三继续强势反攻。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘暴涨32.93%，多只个股涨幅超过50%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a>涨超83%，知乎涨超79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>涨超72%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚买菜</a>涨超66%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">欢聚集团</a>涨超66%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超64%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>涨超60%，拼多多涨超56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>涨超53%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">达达集团</a>涨超50%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超49%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">涂鸦智能</a>涨超48%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超47%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>有道涨近42%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>涨近40%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS直聘</a>涨近38%。</p><p>3、WTI原油收跌1.5% 连续第三交易日下滑</p><p>原油期货周三连续录得第三个交易日下跌，美国WTI原油气候价格创2月25日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）下跌1.40美元，跌幅近1.5%，收于每桶95.04美元。</p><p>4、黄金期货周三收跌1.1% 创两周以来最低收盘价</p><p>黄金期货周三收于两周多以来的最低价。在美联储宣布自2018年以来首次加息以对抗通胀后，电子交易盘中的黄金期货价格出现波动。</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌20.50美元，跌幅1.1%，收于每盎司1909.20美元，创2月28日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>5、市场价格显示美联储未来两次会议加息75基点 即其中一次将大幅加息</p><p>与美联储决策日相关的掉期交易数据表明，在未来两次会议上，美联储将进一步加息约75个基点，这意味着其中至少有一次加息幅度会超过标准的25个基点。</p><p>根据市场定价，在5月份会议上加息50基点的可能性约为80%。</p><p>6、什么情况？伦镍重开竟然跌穿“跌停板”，LME再度喊停交易！“妖镍”风波何时平息？</p><p>3月16日，镍价竟然跌穿交易所规定的涨跌停板（±5%），伦敦金属交易所（LME）只能再次因技术性问题紧急喊停交易。LME调查后称，“系统错误”导致镍交易跌幅低于上限，少量价格在跌停线下的镍交易将被取消。LME表示，镍的电子盘交易将于当地时间下午2点（北京时间22：00）恢复。</p><p>7、欧股收盘全线大涨 德国DAX30指数涨3.79%</p><p>德国DAX30指数涨3.79%，法国CAC40指数涨3.68%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.74%，西班牙IBEX35指数涨1.73%，意大利富时MIB指数涨3.31%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨4.15%。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220791741\" target=\"_blank\">香港金管局将基准利率上调25基点至0.75%</a></p><p>3月17日，香港金管局宣布，将基本利率上调至0.75%。隔夜，美联储已经加息25个基点。</p><p>俄乌局势相关</p><p>1、美国总统拜登宣布向乌克兰提供8亿美元额外军事援助</p><p>美国总统拜登在白宫发表公开讲话，宣布向乌克兰提供8亿美元的额外军事援助，这使美国在过去一周内承诺对乌克兰的安全援助总额达到10亿美元。 自拜登政府成立以来，美国对乌克兰的援助总计已达20亿美元。根据白宫发布的声明，军事援助计划还包括反坦克导弹和更多美国已经开始提供的防御性武器。</p><p>2、普京：俄罗斯没有占领乌克兰的计划</p><p>当地时间16日，俄罗斯总统普京发表电视讲话。</p><p>普京表示，特别军事行动进展顺利，正在按计划执行。俄军虽然接近基辅和乌克兰其他城市，但是没有占领乌克兰的计划和目的。</p><p>3、北约再次拒绝在乌克兰设立禁飞区</p><p>当地时间3月16日，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格在当天举行的北约成员国国防部长特别会议后表示，尽管乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天稍早在向美国国会议员发表讲话时，再次呼吁在乌克兰设立禁飞区，但北约仍决定不采取这类行动，也不会以维和部队的名义派地面部队越过波乌边境。北约当前的主要任务仍是防止俄乌冲突升级和扩大。为此，北约国防部长已责成军事指挥官制定在陆海空及网络和太空领域的全面且长期的防卫遏制计划。</p><p>4、伊朗媒体：伊朗称维也纳核谈判“非常接近”尾声</p><p>据半官方的伊朗学生通讯社报道，伊朗外交部长阿卜杜拉希扬在德黑兰表示，维也纳核谈判“非常接近”尾声。与沙特的谈判仍在议程上，下一轮谈判的日期尚未敲定。</p><p>5、外媒称俄乌正在起草停火撤军计划，俄方称任何披露都为时过早</p><p>据英国金融时报，乌克兰和俄罗斯在暂定的15点和平计划上取得了重大进展，其中包括停火、基辅宣布中立并接受对其武装力量的限制则俄罗斯撤军等。不过，据俄新社，在被问及《金融时报》的报道时，克里姆林宫发言人表示，披露任何解决乌克兰冲突的潜在协议都为时过早。克兰总统泽连斯基也表示，俄罗斯与乌克兰的谈判仍在继续，过程相当艰难。</p><p>6、乌克兰要学瑞典或奥地利保持中立？俄乌各执一词</p><p>克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫周三表示，乌克兰提议成为中立国，但保留自己的武装力量，“可以被视为某种折衷选择”，暗示和平谈判可能取得进展。然而，乌克兰总统府表示，乌克兰拒绝像瑞典或奥地利那样保持中立的提议。乌克兰总统顾问称，只有拥有安全保障的“乌克兰”模式才能起作用。</p><p>7、克里姆林宫：对拜登的制裁并不意味着放弃双方高层接触</p><p>克里姆林宫称，不友好国家的领导人将受到个人制裁，但俄罗斯对拜登的制裁并不意味着放弃双方高层接触。</p><p>8、乌方称其已发起反攻，局势发生了根本性变化</p><p>乌克兰总统顾问称，乌克兰已在几个行动区发起反攻，局势发生了根本性变化。此外，据NBC新闻，美国正在考虑向乌克兰提供导弹。美国总统拜登表示，美国将向乌克兰提供武装无人机。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220798453\" target=\"_blank\">美联储如预期加息25个基点 为2018年来首次加息 暗示年内再加六次</a></p><p>美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）当地时间周三公布最新利率决议，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，符合市场预期，为2018年12月以来首次加息。同时公布的点阵图显示，美联储年内还会进行六次同等幅度的加息。</p><p>FOMC声明显示，委员们以8-1的投票比例通过此次的利率决定。只有圣路易斯联储行长James Bullard持不同意见，他建议加息50个基点，这是自2020年9月以来首次出现有人投反对票。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220795960\" target=\"_blank\">鲍威尔发布会要点总结：最快5月宣布缩表 必要时或加快政策收紧速度</a></p><p>美联储当地时间周三宣布，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，为2018年12月以来首次加息。点阵图显示，美联储年内还会进行六次同等幅度的加息。美联储主席鲍威尔在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储加息和缩表的时间已经到来，持续加息是适宜的，如有必要，美联储可能会加快收紧政策。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220795140\" target=\"_blank\">联合国贸发会议发布报告：俄乌冲突导致世界经济前景迅速恶化</a></p><p>当地时间16日，联合国贸发会议发布报告指出，俄乌冲突对全球贸易和发展产生影响，食品、燃料和化肥价格上涨，导致世界经济前景迅速恶化，非洲和最不发达国家的形势尤其令人担忧。俄乌冲突还会导致金融不稳定性加剧、复杂的全球供应链重组和贸易成本上升，给世界经济带来冲击。</p><p>4、美国务院发言人：美国与伊朗很有可能达成协议让伊核协议重启</p><p>在美国国务院例行记者会上，美国务院发言人内德·普赖斯表示，通过不同形式的高层磋商，美方及盟友很有可能尽快与伊朗达成协议，让伊核协议重启。</p><p>5、美国5年和10年期国债收益率曲线自2020年3月以来首次倒挂</p><p>中期美国国债持续表现不佳，5年和10年期收益率差自2020年3月以来首次跌破零。该段曲线自2007年以来还从没有倒挂过。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、华为发布智能门锁、便携智能音箱等多款新品</p><p>2022华为全屋智能及全场景新品春季发布会正式举办。会上，华为发布全屋Wi-Fi、智能门锁、便携智能音箱HUAWEI Sound Joy、HUAWEI P50系列新色、HUAWEI nova 9 SE、HUAWEI MatePad Paper、HUAWEI FreeBuds 4E等多款新品，将智能家居、智慧出行、影音娱乐、智慧办公、运动健康等场景的应用再度升级。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220798335\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致 丰田三月份再次削减产量</a></p><p>日本汽车巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田汽车</a>公司表示，受到半导体芯片短缺的影响，3月将进一步减产。几天前，丰田下调今年4月至6月的国内生产目标，下调幅度高达20%。丰田表示，原先规划的3月份全球产量约95万台的目标恐怕将难以达成。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220798941\" target=\"_blank\">沃尔玛积极扩张业务 计划在美国招聘5万多名员工</a></p><p>零售巨头沃尔玛在美东时间周三(3月16日)宣布，计划在5月前招聘5万多名美国员工，以增强其物流中心和门店的实力。</p><p>这家世界上最大的零售公司表示，新招聘员工将主要在其门店、俱乐部和供应链中担任职务。去年，沃尔玛聘用了约5500名药剂师和药房经理、1.3万多名药房技术人员和约4500名卡车司机。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220579954\" target=\"_blank\">巴菲特旗下伯克希尔股价首次收于50万美元上方 创历史新高</a></p><p>巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司A类股在周三实现了一个重要的里程碑，股价突破50万美元，创下历史收盘新高。</p><p>伯克希尔A类股周三上涨1.3%，收于每股504400美元，这是该股有史以来首次收于50万美元上方，为连续第四天上涨。这家总部位于奥马哈的企业的股价今年已上涨超过11%，明显跑赢大盘。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2219540497\" target=\"_blank\">富士康：深圳相关园区已恢复部分生产经营</a></p><p>富士康在深圳的主要园区，部分员工生活、工作、交通都在园区内，实行“两点一线”封闭式管理。根据深圳市发布的行业指引政策，在严格遵循政府防疫政策要求，做好园区内闭环管理及员工健康照护的前提下，相关园区已恢复部分生产经营。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨 | 美股继续走高！中概股上演大奇迹日</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨 | 美股继续走高！中概股上演大奇迹日\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-17 08:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①美股有惊无险继续走高，中概狂飙，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>暴涨56%，伦镍复牌首日跌停；②美联储如期加息25个基点，暗示今年此后六次会议均加息；③黄金四连跌创逾两周新低，美联储会议后金价拉涨；④外媒称俄乌正在起草停火撤军计划，俄方称任何披露都为时过早。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p>1、加息靴子落地！美股收涨纳指涨近4% <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>大涨超80%领衔中概股反攻</p><p>美联储公布加息25个基点符合市场预期，美股三大股指集体收涨。截止收盘，道指涨1.55%，标普500指数涨2.24%，纳指涨3.77%，为2020年11月以来最大单日涨幅。</p><p>在俄乌谈判积极进展的推动下，美股开盘后一路走高，中国支持市场的行动也提振了中概股。不过盘中美联储如期加息之后，道指、标普500指数一度转跌，但最终鲍威尔“力挽狂澜”， 尾盘股指集体刷新日高。</p><p>2、中概股周三继续上演“大奇迹日” 知乎暴涨超79% 拼多多飙升逾56%</p><p>热门中概股继昨日大幅攀升后，周三继续强势反攻。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘暴涨32.93%，多只个股涨幅超过50%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a>涨超83%，知乎涨超79%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>涨超72%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚买菜</a>涨超66%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">欢聚集团</a>涨超66%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超64%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>涨超60%，拼多多涨超56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>涨超53%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">达达集团</a>涨超50%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超49%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">涂鸦智能</a>涨超48%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超47%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>有道涨近42%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>涨近40%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS直聘</a>涨近38%。</p><p>3、WTI原油收跌1.5% 连续第三交易日下滑</p><p>原油期货周三连续录得第三个交易日下跌，美国WTI原油气候价格创2月25日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）下跌1.40美元，跌幅近1.5%，收于每桶95.04美元。</p><p>4、黄金期货周三收跌1.1% 创两周以来最低收盘价</p><p>黄金期货周三收于两周多以来的最低价。在美联储宣布自2018年以来首次加息以对抗通胀后，电子交易盘中的黄金期货价格出现波动。</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌20.50美元，跌幅1.1%，收于每盎司1909.20美元，创2月28日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>5、市场价格显示美联储未来两次会议加息75基点 即其中一次将大幅加息</p><p>与美联储决策日相关的掉期交易数据表明，在未来两次会议上，美联储将进一步加息约75个基点，这意味着其中至少有一次加息幅度会超过标准的25个基点。</p><p>根据市场定价，在5月份会议上加息50基点的可能性约为80%。</p><p>6、什么情况？伦镍重开竟然跌穿“跌停板”，LME再度喊停交易！“妖镍”风波何时平息？</p><p>3月16日，镍价竟然跌穿交易所规定的涨跌停板（±5%），伦敦金属交易所（LME）只能再次因技术性问题紧急喊停交易。LME调查后称，“系统错误”导致镍交易跌幅低于上限，少量价格在跌停线下的镍交易将被取消。LME表示，镍的电子盘交易将于当地时间下午2点（北京时间22：00）恢复。</p><p>7、欧股收盘全线大涨 德国DAX30指数涨3.79%</p><p>德国DAX30指数涨3.79%，法国CAC40指数涨3.68%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.74%，西班牙IBEX35指数涨1.73%，意大利富时MIB指数涨3.31%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨4.15%。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220791741\" target=\"_blank\">香港金管局将基准利率上调25基点至0.75%</a></p><p>3月17日，香港金管局宣布，将基本利率上调至0.75%。隔夜，美联储已经加息25个基点。</p><p>俄乌局势相关</p><p>1、美国总统拜登宣布向乌克兰提供8亿美元额外军事援助</p><p>美国总统拜登在白宫发表公开讲话，宣布向乌克兰提供8亿美元的额外军事援助，这使美国在过去一周内承诺对乌克兰的安全援助总额达到10亿美元。 自拜登政府成立以来，美国对乌克兰的援助总计已达20亿美元。根据白宫发布的声明，军事援助计划还包括反坦克导弹和更多美国已经开始提供的防御性武器。</p><p>2、普京：俄罗斯没有占领乌克兰的计划</p><p>当地时间16日，俄罗斯总统普京发表电视讲话。</p><p>普京表示，特别军事行动进展顺利，正在按计划执行。俄军虽然接近基辅和乌克兰其他城市，但是没有占领乌克兰的计划和目的。</p><p>3、北约再次拒绝在乌克兰设立禁飞区</p><p>当地时间3月16日，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格在当天举行的北约成员国国防部长特别会议后表示，尽管乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天稍早在向美国国会议员发表讲话时，再次呼吁在乌克兰设立禁飞区，但北约仍决定不采取这类行动，也不会以维和部队的名义派地面部队越过波乌边境。北约当前的主要任务仍是防止俄乌冲突升级和扩大。为此，北约国防部长已责成军事指挥官制定在陆海空及网络和太空领域的全面且长期的防卫遏制计划。</p><p>4、伊朗媒体：伊朗称维也纳核谈判“非常接近”尾声</p><p>据半官方的伊朗学生通讯社报道，伊朗外交部长阿卜杜拉希扬在德黑兰表示，维也纳核谈判“非常接近”尾声。与沙特的谈判仍在议程上，下一轮谈判的日期尚未敲定。</p><p>5、外媒称俄乌正在起草停火撤军计划，俄方称任何披露都为时过早</p><p>据英国金融时报，乌克兰和俄罗斯在暂定的15点和平计划上取得了重大进展，其中包括停火、基辅宣布中立并接受对其武装力量的限制则俄罗斯撤军等。不过，据俄新社，在被问及《金融时报》的报道时，克里姆林宫发言人表示，披露任何解决乌克兰冲突的潜在协议都为时过早。克兰总统泽连斯基也表示，俄罗斯与乌克兰的谈判仍在继续，过程相当艰难。</p><p>6、乌克兰要学瑞典或奥地利保持中立？俄乌各执一词</p><p>克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫周三表示，乌克兰提议成为中立国，但保留自己的武装力量，“可以被视为某种折衷选择”，暗示和平谈判可能取得进展。然而，乌克兰总统府表示，乌克兰拒绝像瑞典或奥地利那样保持中立的提议。乌克兰总统顾问称，只有拥有安全保障的“乌克兰”模式才能起作用。</p><p>7、克里姆林宫：对拜登的制裁并不意味着放弃双方高层接触</p><p>克里姆林宫称，不友好国家的领导人将受到个人制裁，但俄罗斯对拜登的制裁并不意味着放弃双方高层接触。</p><p>8、乌方称其已发起反攻，局势发生了根本性变化</p><p>乌克兰总统顾问称，乌克兰已在几个行动区发起反攻，局势发生了根本性变化。此外，据NBC新闻，美国正在考虑向乌克兰提供导弹。美国总统拜登表示，美国将向乌克兰提供武装无人机。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220798453\" target=\"_blank\">美联储如预期加息25个基点 为2018年来首次加息 暗示年内再加六次</a></p><p>美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）当地时间周三公布最新利率决议，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，符合市场预期，为2018年12月以来首次加息。同时公布的点阵图显示，美联储年内还会进行六次同等幅度的加息。</p><p>FOMC声明显示，委员们以8-1的投票比例通过此次的利率决定。只有圣路易斯联储行长James Bullard持不同意见，他建议加息50个基点，这是自2020年9月以来首次出现有人投反对票。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220795960\" target=\"_blank\">鲍威尔发布会要点总结：最快5月宣布缩表 必要时或加快政策收紧速度</a></p><p>美联储当地时间周三宣布，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，为2018年12月以来首次加息。点阵图显示，美联储年内还会进行六次同等幅度的加息。美联储主席鲍威尔在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储加息和缩表的时间已经到来，持续加息是适宜的，如有必要，美联储可能会加快收紧政策。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220795140\" target=\"_blank\">联合国贸发会议发布报告：俄乌冲突导致世界经济前景迅速恶化</a></p><p>当地时间16日，联合国贸发会议发布报告指出，俄乌冲突对全球贸易和发展产生影响，食品、燃料和化肥价格上涨，导致世界经济前景迅速恶化，非洲和最不发达国家的形势尤其令人担忧。俄乌冲突还会导致金融不稳定性加剧、复杂的全球供应链重组和贸易成本上升，给世界经济带来冲击。</p><p>4、美国务院发言人：美国与伊朗很有可能达成协议让伊核协议重启</p><p>在美国国务院例行记者会上，美国务院发言人内德·普赖斯表示，通过不同形式的高层磋商，美方及盟友很有可能尽快与伊朗达成协议，让伊核协议重启。</p><p>5、美国5年和10年期国债收益率曲线自2020年3月以来首次倒挂</p><p>中期美国国债持续表现不佳，5年和10年期收益率差自2020年3月以来首次跌破零。该段曲线自2007年以来还从没有倒挂过。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、华为发布智能门锁、便携智能音箱等多款新品</p><p>2022华为全屋智能及全场景新品春季发布会正式举办。会上，华为发布全屋Wi-Fi、智能门锁、便携智能音箱HUAWEI Sound Joy、HUAWEI P50系列新色、HUAWEI nova 9 SE、HUAWEI MatePad Paper、HUAWEI FreeBuds 4E等多款新品，将智能家居、智慧出行、影音娱乐、智慧办公、运动健康等场景的应用再度升级。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220798335\" target=\"_blank\">芯片短缺导致 丰田三月份再次削减产量</a></p><p>日本汽车巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田汽车</a>公司表示，受到半导体芯片短缺的影响，3月将进一步减产。几天前，丰田下调今年4月至6月的国内生产目标，下调幅度高达20%。丰田表示，原先规划的3月份全球产量约95万台的目标恐怕将难以达成。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220798941\" target=\"_blank\">沃尔玛积极扩张业务 计划在美国招聘5万多名员工</a></p><p>零售巨头沃尔玛在美东时间周三(3月16日)宣布，计划在5月前招聘5万多名美国员工，以增强其物流中心和门店的实力。</p><p>这家世界上最大的零售公司表示，新招聘员工将主要在其门店、俱乐部和供应链中担任职务。去年，沃尔玛聘用了约5500名药剂师和药房经理、1.3万多名药房技术人员和约4500名卡车司机。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2220579954\" target=\"_blank\">巴菲特旗下伯克希尔股价首次收于50万美元上方 创历史新高</a></p><p>巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司A类股在周三实现了一个重要的里程碑，股价突破50万美元，创下历史收盘新高。</p><p>伯克希尔A类股周三上涨1.3%，收于每股504400美元，这是该股有史以来首次收于50万美元上方，为连续第四天上涨。这家总部位于奥马哈的企业的股价今年已上涨超过11%，明显跑赢大盘。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2219540497\" target=\"_blank\">富士康：深圳相关园区已恢复部分生产经营</a></p><p>富士康在深圳的主要园区，部分员工生活、工作、交通都在园区内，实行“两点一线”封闭式管理。根据深圳市发布的行业指引政策，在严格遵循政府防疫政策要求，做好园区内闭环管理及员工健康照护的前提下，相关园区已恢复部分生产经营。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195388002","content_text":"摘要：①美股有惊无险继续走高，中概狂飙，拼多多暴涨56%，伦镍复牌首日跌停；②美联储如期加息25个基点，暗示今年此后六次会议均加息；③黄金四连跌创逾两周新低，美联储会议后金价拉涨；④外媒称俄乌正在起草停火撤军计划，俄方称任何披露都为时过早。海外市场1、加息靴子落地！美股收涨纳指涨近4% 知乎大涨超80%领衔中概股反攻美联储公布加息25个基点符合市场预期，美股三大股指集体收涨。截止收盘，道指涨1.55%，标普500指数涨2.24%，纳指涨3.77%，为2020年11月以来最大单日涨幅。在俄乌谈判积极进展的推动下，美股开盘后一路走高，中国支持市场的行动也提振了中概股。不过盘中美联储如期加息之后，道指、标普500指数一度转跌，但最终鲍威尔“力挽狂澜”， 尾盘股指集体刷新日高。2、中概股周三继续上演“大奇迹日” 知乎暴涨超79% 拼多多飙升逾56%热门中概股继昨日大幅攀升后，周三继续强势反攻。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘暴涨32.93%，多只个股涨幅超过50%。世纪互联涨超83%，知乎涨超79%，金山云涨超72%，叮咚买菜涨超66%，欢聚集团涨超66%，贝壳涨超64%，斗鱼涨超60%，拼多多涨超56%，房多多涨超53%，达达集团涨超50%，爱奇艺涨超49%，涂鸦智能涨超48%，哔哩哔哩涨超47%，网易有道涨近42%，虎牙涨近40%，京东、百度、BOSS直聘涨近38%。3、WTI原油收跌1.5% 连续第三交易日下滑原油期货周三连续录得第三个交易日下跌，美国WTI原油气候价格创2月25日以来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所4月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）下跌1.40美元，跌幅近1.5%，收于每桶95.04美元。4、黄金期货周三收跌1.1% 创两周以来最低收盘价黄金期货周三收于两周多以来的最低价。在美联储宣布自2018年以来首次加息以对抗通胀后，电子交易盘中的黄金期货价格出现波动。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌20.50美元，跌幅1.1%，收于每盎司1909.20美元，创2月28日以来的最低收盘价。5、市场价格显示美联储未来两次会议加息75基点 即其中一次将大幅加息与美联储决策日相关的掉期交易数据表明，在未来两次会议上，美联储将进一步加息约75个基点，这意味着其中至少有一次加息幅度会超过标准的25个基点。根据市场定价，在5月份会议上加息50基点的可能性约为80%。6、什么情况？伦镍重开竟然跌穿“跌停板”，LME再度喊停交易！“妖镍”风波何时平息？3月16日，镍价竟然跌穿交易所规定的涨跌停板（±5%），伦敦金属交易所（LME）只能再次因技术性问题紧急喊停交易。LME调查后称，“系统错误”导致镍交易跌幅低于上限，少量价格在跌停线下的镍交易将被取消。LME表示，镍的电子盘交易将于当地时间下午2点（北京时间22：00）恢复。7、欧股收盘全线大涨 德国DAX30指数涨3.79%德国DAX30指数涨3.79%，法国CAC40指数涨3.68%，英国富时100指数涨1.74%，西班牙IBEX35指数涨1.73%，意大利富时MIB指数涨3.31%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨4.15%。8、香港金管局将基准利率上调25基点至0.75%3月17日，香港金管局宣布，将基本利率上调至0.75%。隔夜，美联储已经加息25个基点。俄乌局势相关1、美国总统拜登宣布向乌克兰提供8亿美元额外军事援助美国总统拜登在白宫发表公开讲话，宣布向乌克兰提供8亿美元的额外军事援助，这使美国在过去一周内承诺对乌克兰的安全援助总额达到10亿美元。 自拜登政府成立以来，美国对乌克兰的援助总计已达20亿美元。根据白宫发布的声明，军事援助计划还包括反坦克导弹和更多美国已经开始提供的防御性武器。2、普京：俄罗斯没有占领乌克兰的计划当地时间16日，俄罗斯总统普京发表电视讲话。普京表示，特别军事行动进展顺利，正在按计划执行。俄军虽然接近基辅和乌克兰其他城市，但是没有占领乌克兰的计划和目的。3、北约再次拒绝在乌克兰设立禁飞区当地时间3月16日，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格在当天举行的北约成员国国防部长特别会议后表示，尽管乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天稍早在向美国国会议员发表讲话时，再次呼吁在乌克兰设立禁飞区，但北约仍决定不采取这类行动，也不会以维和部队的名义派地面部队越过波乌边境。北约当前的主要任务仍是防止俄乌冲突升级和扩大。为此，北约国防部长已责成军事指挥官制定在陆海空及网络和太空领域的全面且长期的防卫遏制计划。4、伊朗媒体：伊朗称维也纳核谈判“非常接近”尾声据半官方的伊朗学生通讯社报道，伊朗外交部长阿卜杜拉希扬在德黑兰表示，维也纳核谈判“非常接近”尾声。与沙特的谈判仍在议程上，下一轮谈判的日期尚未敲定。5、外媒称俄乌正在起草停火撤军计划，俄方称任何披露都为时过早据英国金融时报，乌克兰和俄罗斯在暂定的15点和平计划上取得了重大进展，其中包括停火、基辅宣布中立并接受对其武装力量的限制则俄罗斯撤军等。不过，据俄新社，在被问及《金融时报》的报道时，克里姆林宫发言人表示，披露任何解决乌克兰冲突的潜在协议都为时过早。克兰总统泽连斯基也表示，俄罗斯与乌克兰的谈判仍在继续，过程相当艰难。6、乌克兰要学瑞典或奥地利保持中立？俄乌各执一词克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫周三表示，乌克兰提议成为中立国，但保留自己的武装力量，“可以被视为某种折衷选择”，暗示和平谈判可能取得进展。然而，乌克兰总统府表示，乌克兰拒绝像瑞典或奥地利那样保持中立的提议。乌克兰总统顾问称，只有拥有安全保障的“乌克兰”模式才能起作用。7、克里姆林宫：对拜登的制裁并不意味着放弃双方高层接触克里姆林宫称，不友好国家的领导人将受到个人制裁，但俄罗斯对拜登的制裁并不意味着放弃双方高层接触。8、乌方称其已发起反攻，局势发生了根本性变化乌克兰总统顾问称，乌克兰已在几个行动区发起反攻，局势发生了根本性变化。此外，据NBC新闻，美国正在考虑向乌克兰提供导弹。美国总统拜登表示，美国将向乌克兰提供武装无人机。国际宏观1、美联储如预期加息25个基点 为2018年来首次加息 暗示年内再加六次美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）当地时间周三公布最新利率决议，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，符合市场预期，为2018年12月以来首次加息。同时公布的点阵图显示，美联储年内还会进行六次同等幅度的加息。FOMC声明显示，委员们以8-1的投票比例通过此次的利率决定。只有圣路易斯联储行长James Bullard持不同意见，他建议加息50个基点，这是自2020年9月以来首次出现有人投反对票。2、鲍威尔发布会要点总结：最快5月宣布缩表 必要时或加快政策收紧速度美联储当地时间周三宣布，将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，为2018年12月以来首次加息。点阵图显示，美联储年内还会进行六次同等幅度的加息。美联储主席鲍威尔在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储加息和缩表的时间已经到来，持续加息是适宜的，如有必要，美联储可能会加快收紧政策。3、联合国贸发会议发布报告：俄乌冲突导致世界经济前景迅速恶化当地时间16日，联合国贸发会议发布报告指出，俄乌冲突对全球贸易和发展产生影响，食品、燃料和化肥价格上涨，导致世界经济前景迅速恶化，非洲和最不发达国家的形势尤其令人担忧。俄乌冲突还会导致金融不稳定性加剧、复杂的全球供应链重组和贸易成本上升，给世界经济带来冲击。4、美国务院发言人：美国与伊朗很有可能达成协议让伊核协议重启在美国国务院例行记者会上，美国务院发言人内德·普赖斯表示，通过不同形式的高层磋商，美方及盟友很有可能尽快与伊朗达成协议，让伊核协议重启。5、美国5年和10年期国债收益率曲线自2020年3月以来首次倒挂中期美国国债持续表现不佳，5年和10年期收益率差自2020年3月以来首次跌破零。该段曲线自2007年以来还从没有倒挂过。公司新闻1、华为发布智能门锁、便携智能音箱等多款新品2022华为全屋智能及全场景新品春季发布会正式举办。会上，华为发布全屋Wi-Fi、智能门锁、便携智能音箱HUAWEI Sound Joy、HUAWEI P50系列新色、HUAWEI nova 9 SE、HUAWEI MatePad Paper、HUAWEI FreeBuds 4E等多款新品，将智能家居、智慧出行、影音娱乐、智慧办公、运动健康等场景的应用再度升级。2、芯片短缺导致 丰田三月份再次削减产量日本汽车巨头丰田汽车公司表示，受到半导体芯片短缺的影响，3月将进一步减产。几天前，丰田下调今年4月至6月的国内生产目标，下调幅度高达20%。丰田表示，原先规划的3月份全球产量约95万台的目标恐怕将难以达成。3、沃尔玛积极扩张业务 计划在美国招聘5万多名员工零售巨头沃尔玛在美东时间周三(3月16日)宣布，计划在5月前招聘5万多名美国员工，以增强其物流中心和门店的实力。这家世界上最大的零售公司表示，新招聘员工将主要在其门店、俱乐部和供应链中担任职务。去年，沃尔玛聘用了约5500名药剂师和药房经理、1.3万多名药房技术人员和约4500名卡车司机。4、巴菲特旗下伯克希尔股价首次收于50万美元上方 创历史新高巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司A类股在周三实现了一个重要的里程碑，股价突破50万美元，创下历史收盘新高。伯克希尔A类股周三上涨1.3%，收于每股504400美元，这是该股有史以来首次收于50万美元上方，为连续第四天上涨。这家总部位于奥马哈的企业的股价今年已上涨超过11%，明显跑赢大盘。5、富士康：深圳相关园区已恢复部分生产经营富士康在深圳的主要园区，部分员工生活、工作、交通都在园区内，实行“两点一线”封闭式管理。根据深圳市发布的行业指引政策，在严格遵循政府防疫政策要求，做好园区内闭环管理及员工健康照护的前提下，相关园区已恢复部分生产经营。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634615789,"gmtCreate":1647478273826,"gmtModify":1647478273826,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看看怎么跟吧[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"看看怎么跟吧[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"看看怎么跟吧[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634615789","repostId":"1187513076","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187513076","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1647453615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187513076?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-17 02:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美联储如期加息25个基点，预计今年可能再加六次","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187513076","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间3月16日，美联储将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，为2018年12月以来首次加息，符合市场预期。美联储利率决定公布后，美股三大股指短线走低，道指涨0.51%，纳指涨1.7","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间3月16日，美联储将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，为2018年12月以来首次加息，符合市场预期。</p><p>美联储利率决定公布后，美股三大股指短线走低，道指涨0.51%，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.93%；</p><p>现货黄金短线持续上扬，走高10美元，现报1915.68美元/盎司；现货白银短线走高近0.25美元，现报24.69美元/盎司；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5919959fb9adf867bf8829677d64f025\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美东时间3月16日周三，美联储会后宣布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员会后投票决定，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标区间上调25个基点，升至0.25%到0.50%。只有一名FOMC委员对此决定投了反对票，反对者圣路易联储主席布拉德主张，本次加息50个基点。</p><p>此次加息的时间和幅度均符合市场预期。这是美联储自2018年12月以来首次加息，并且联储官员预计，这次行动将开启今年的多次加息进程。因为本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，一些联储决策者预计，今年此后时间联储将合计加息六次。</p><p><b>再度修改前瞻指引 未来适合继续加息</b></p><p>上次会议的利率前瞻指引中，美联储称，鉴于通胀远高于联储长期目标水平2%，而且劳动力市场强劲，FOMC预计，将很快适合加息。本次会议声明继续修改这一前瞻指引，称</p><blockquote>FOMC委员会预计，通胀将回到2%的长期通胀目标，且劳动力市场将保持强劲。为支持联储的充分就业和长期通胀目标，决定此次加息25个基点，“并预期，将上调目标利率区间持续下去会是适合的。”</blockquote><p><b>预告未来会议开始缩表</b></p><p>在有关购买债券的前瞻指引中，上次会议声明预计，到今年3月初，新冠疫情爆发后加码QE以来每月1200亿美元的购债就会结束。本次会议声明删除了所有这些表述，称</p><blockquote>FOMC委员会预计，在将要到来的一次会议上，开始削减对美国国债证券、机构债券和机构MBS的持仓。</blockquote><p>上次会后，美联储还公布了缩减资产负债表（缩表）的原则，称联储属意的减持美债方式主要是，调整再投资系统公开市场账户（SOMA）所持证券收到本金款项的金额，也就是说，并非主动抛售债券。本次会后并未提及修改这一原则。</p><p><b>通胀高企体现能源价格上涨 新增俄乌局势影响 称可能近期增加通胀上行压力</b></p><p>相比上次会议、今年1月的货币政策会后声明，本次美联储在评述经济相关事件时添加了有关俄乌局势的措辞，称：</p><blockquote>俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，“<b>美国经济经济所受到影响有很高的不确定性，而在近期内，侵袭及相关事件可能对通胀制造了新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压</b>。”</blockquote><p>本次声明对经济的评价有所改动。上次声明重申，疫情相关的供需失衡和经济复工已经继续助长通胀处于高水平。本次对通胀的评价明确提到能源价格上涨这一影响因素，改为：</p><blockquote>“<b>通胀仍高企，反映了疫情相关的供需失衡、能源价格上涨和更大范围的价格压力</b>。”</blockquote><p>上次声明提到，最受疫情影响的行业近几个月已好转，但还在受近期新冠病例激增的影响，本次删除了这些说辞，重申经济活动和就业的指标继续强劲，重申失业率明显下降，上次说“近几个月就业增长稳健”，这次改为“近几个月就业增长强劲&#34;。上次提到，金融环境仍宽松、部分体现了政策措施支持经济和美国家庭及企业的信贷流，本次将这些说辞都删除。</p><p><b>市场评论</b></p><p>分析师Chris Anstey：鲍威尔在本月参议院银行委员会的听证会上表示，美联储将在这次会议上设定资产负债表缩减的上限。因此，当联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要公布时，我们可能会得到更多有关该计划的对市场的影响信息。除非鲍威尔在新闻发布会上给我们不同的指示。</p><p>考虑到收益率的飙升，很难看到股市在交易日结束前保持盈利，但让我们看看鲍威尔有什么要说的。当然，关于俄罗斯-乌克兰谈判，存在着相互矛盾的说法。</p><p>机构分析：美联储加息，标志着对抗通胀的强势转向</p><p>美联储周三将利率上调0.25个百分点，这是美联储新近采取的积极应对通胀的姿态，这将在2023年将借贷成本推至限制性水平。声明没有直接提及新冠肺炎疫情，而是称乌克兰冲突“对通胀造成了额外的上行压力”，并对经济活动造成了压力。利率路径所示决策者比预期的更鹰派的预测，反映出美联储对通货膨胀比预期更快更持久的担忧，这也让美联储希望轻松摆脱为抗击疫情而实施的紧急政策的希望面临风险。</p><p><b>FOMC声明后</b></p><p>据CME“美联储观察”：美联储5月维持利率在0.25%-0.5%区间的概率为3.4%，加息25个基点的概率为43.9%，加息50个基点的概率为52.7%，加息75个基点的概率为0%；6月加息25个基点的概率为0.9%，加息50个基点的概率为14.3%，加息75个基点的概率为45.7%，加息100个基点的概率为39.1%</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储如期加息25个基点，预计今年可能再加六次</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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02:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间3月16日，美联储将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，为2018年12月以来首次加息，符合市场预期。</p><p>美联储利率决定公布后，美股三大股指短线走低，道指涨0.51%，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.93%；</p><p>现货黄金短线持续上扬，走高10美元，现报1915.68美元/盎司；现货白银短线走高近0.25美元，现报24.69美元/盎司；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5919959fb9adf867bf8829677d64f025\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美东时间3月16日周三，美联储会后宣布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员会后投票决定，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标区间上调25个基点，升至0.25%到0.50%。只有一名FOMC委员对此决定投了反对票，反对者圣路易联储主席布拉德主张，本次加息50个基点。</p><p>此次加息的时间和幅度均符合市场预期。这是美联储自2018年12月以来首次加息，并且联储官员预计，这次行动将开启今年的多次加息进程。因为本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，一些联储决策者预计，今年此后时间联储将合计加息六次。</p><p><b>再度修改前瞻指引 未来适合继续加息</b></p><p>上次会议的利率前瞻指引中，美联储称，鉴于通胀远高于联储长期目标水平2%，而且劳动力市场强劲，FOMC预计，将很快适合加息。本次会议声明继续修改这一前瞻指引，称</p><blockquote>FOMC委员会预计，通胀将回到2%的长期通胀目标，且劳动力市场将保持强劲。为支持联储的充分就业和长期通胀目标，决定此次加息25个基点，“并预期，将上调目标利率区间持续下去会是适合的。”</blockquote><p><b>预告未来会议开始缩表</b></p><p>在有关购买债券的前瞻指引中，上次会议声明预计，到今年3月初，新冠疫情爆发后加码QE以来每月1200亿美元的购债就会结束。本次会议声明删除了所有这些表述，称</p><blockquote>FOMC委员会预计，在将要到来的一次会议上，开始削减对美国国债证券、机构债券和机构MBS的持仓。</blockquote><p>上次会后，美联储还公布了缩减资产负债表（缩表）的原则，称联储属意的减持美债方式主要是，调整再投资系统公开市场账户（SOMA）所持证券收到本金款项的金额，也就是说，并非主动抛售债券。本次会后并未提及修改这一原则。</p><p><b>通胀高企体现能源价格上涨 新增俄乌局势影响 称可能近期增加通胀上行压力</b></p><p>相比上次会议、今年1月的货币政策会后声明，本次美联储在评述经济相关事件时添加了有关俄乌局势的措辞，称：</p><blockquote>俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，“<b>美国经济经济所受到影响有很高的不确定性，而在近期内，侵袭及相关事件可能对通胀制造了新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压</b>。”</blockquote><p>本次声明对经济的评价有所改动。上次声明重申，疫情相关的供需失衡和经济复工已经继续助长通胀处于高水平。本次对通胀的评价明确提到能源价格上涨这一影响因素，改为：</p><blockquote>“<b>通胀仍高企，反映了疫情相关的供需失衡、能源价格上涨和更大范围的价格压力</b>。”</blockquote><p>上次声明提到，最受疫情影响的行业近几个月已好转，但还在受近期新冠病例激增的影响，本次删除了这些说辞，重申经济活动和就业的指标继续强劲，重申失业率明显下降，上次说“近几个月就业增长稳健”，这次改为“近几个月就业增长强劲&#34;。上次提到，金融环境仍宽松、部分体现了政策措施支持经济和美国家庭及企业的信贷流，本次将这些说辞都删除。</p><p><b>市场评论</b></p><p>分析师Chris Anstey：鲍威尔在本月参议院银行委员会的听证会上表示，美联储将在这次会议上设定资产负债表缩减的上限。因此，当联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要公布时，我们可能会得到更多有关该计划的对市场的影响信息。除非鲍威尔在新闻发布会上给我们不同的指示。</p><p>考虑到收益率的飙升，很难看到股市在交易日结束前保持盈利，但让我们看看鲍威尔有什么要说的。当然，关于俄罗斯-乌克兰谈判，存在着相互矛盾的说法。</p><p>机构分析：美联储加息，标志着对抗通胀的强势转向</p><p>美联储周三将利率上调0.25个百分点，这是美联储新近采取的积极应对通胀的姿态，这将在2023年将借贷成本推至限制性水平。声明没有直接提及新冠肺炎疫情，而是称乌克兰冲突“对通胀造成了额外的上行压力”，并对经济活动造成了压力。利率路径所示决策者比预期的更鹰派的预测，反映出美联储对通货膨胀比预期更快更持久的担忧，这也让美联储希望轻松摆脱为抗击疫情而实施的紧急政策的希望面临风险。</p><p><b>FOMC声明后</b></p><p>据CME“美联储观察”：美联储5月维持利率在0.25%-0.5%区间的概率为3.4%，加息25个基点的概率为43.9%，加息50个基点的概率为52.7%，加息75个基点的概率为0%；6月加息25个基点的概率为0.9%，加息50个基点的概率为14.3%，加息75个基点的概率为45.7%，加息100个基点的概率为39.1%</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187513076","content_text":"美东时间3月16日，美联储将基准利率上调25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间，为2018年12月以来首次加息，符合市场预期。美联储利率决定公布后，美股三大股指短线走低，道指涨0.51%，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.93%；现货黄金短线持续上扬，走高10美元，现报1915.68美元/盎司；现货白银短线走高近0.25美元，现报24.69美元/盎司；美东时间3月16日周三，美联储会后宣布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员会后投票决定，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标区间上调25个基点，升至0.25%到0.50%。只有一名FOMC委员对此决定投了反对票，反对者圣路易联储主席布拉德主张，本次加息50个基点。此次加息的时间和幅度均符合市场预期。这是美联储自2018年12月以来首次加息，并且联储官员预计，这次行动将开启今年的多次加息进程。因为本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，一些联储决策者预计，今年此后时间联储将合计加息六次。再度修改前瞻指引 未来适合继续加息上次会议的利率前瞻指引中，美联储称，鉴于通胀远高于联储长期目标水平2%，而且劳动力市场强劲，FOMC预计，将很快适合加息。本次会议声明继续修改这一前瞻指引，称FOMC委员会预计，通胀将回到2%的长期通胀目标，且劳动力市场将保持强劲。为支持联储的充分就业和长期通胀目标，决定此次加息25个基点，“并预期，将上调目标利率区间持续下去会是适合的。”预告未来会议开始缩表在有关购买债券的前瞻指引中，上次会议声明预计，到今年3月初，新冠疫情爆发后加码QE以来每月1200亿美元的购债就会结束。本次会议声明删除了所有这些表述，称FOMC委员会预计，在将要到来的一次会议上，开始削减对美国国债证券、机构债券和机构MBS的持仓。上次会后，美联储还公布了缩减资产负债表（缩表）的原则，称联储属意的减持美债方式主要是，调整再投资系统公开市场账户（SOMA）所持证券收到本金款项的金额，也就是说，并非主动抛售债券。本次会后并未提及修改这一原则。通胀高企体现能源价格上涨 新增俄乌局势影响 称可能近期增加通胀上行压力相比上次会议、今年1月的货币政策会后声明，本次美联储在评述经济相关事件时添加了有关俄乌局势的措辞，称：俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，“美国经济经济所受到影响有很高的不确定性，而在近期内，侵袭及相关事件可能对通胀制造了新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压。”本次声明对经济的评价有所改动。上次声明重申，疫情相关的供需失衡和经济复工已经继续助长通胀处于高水平。本次对通胀的评价明确提到能源价格上涨这一影响因素，改为：“通胀仍高企，反映了疫情相关的供需失衡、能源价格上涨和更大范围的价格压力。”上次声明提到，最受疫情影响的行业近几个月已好转，但还在受近期新冠病例激增的影响，本次删除了这些说辞，重申经济活动和就业的指标继续强劲，重申失业率明显下降，上次说“近几个月就业增长稳健”，这次改为“近几个月就业增长强劲\"。上次提到，金融环境仍宽松、部分体现了政策措施支持经济和美国家庭及企业的信贷流，本次将这些说辞都删除。市场评论分析师Chris Anstey：鲍威尔在本月参议院银行委员会的听证会上表示，美联储将在这次会议上设定资产负债表缩减的上限。因此，当联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要公布时，我们可能会得到更多有关该计划的对市场的影响信息。除非鲍威尔在新闻发布会上给我们不同的指示。考虑到收益率的飙升，很难看到股市在交易日结束前保持盈利，但让我们看看鲍威尔有什么要说的。当然，关于俄罗斯-乌克兰谈判，存在着相互矛盾的说法。机构分析：美联储加息，标志着对抗通胀的强势转向美联储周三将利率上调0.25个百分点，这是美联储新近采取的积极应对通胀的姿态，这将在2023年将借贷成本推至限制性水平。声明没有直接提及新冠肺炎疫情，而是称乌克兰冲突“对通胀造成了额外的上行压力”，并对经济活动造成了压力。利率路径所示决策者比预期的更鹰派的预测，反映出美联储对通货膨胀比预期更快更持久的担忧，这也让美联储希望轻松摆脱为抗击疫情而实施的紧急政策的希望面临风险。FOMC声明后据CME“美联储观察”：美联储5月维持利率在0.25%-0.5%区间的概率为3.4%，加息25个基点的概率为43.9%，加息50个基点的概率为52.7%，加息75个基点的概率为0%；6月加息25个基点的概率为0.9%，加息50个基点的概率为14.3%，加息75个基点的概率为45.7%，加息100个基点的概率为39.1%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638538850,"gmtCreate":1645424688413,"gmtModify":1645424688413,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美团只是背黑锅的，怎么不降低燃油税呢？","listText":"美团只是背黑锅的，怎么不降低燃油税呢？","text":"美团只是背黑锅的，怎么不降低燃油税呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638538850","repostId":"2213605334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855210618,"gmtCreate":1635377403749,"gmtModify":1635377403749,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855210618","repostId":"2178239526","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2178239526","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1635347820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2178239526?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-27 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why it's wrong to compare today's inflation surge to 1970s-style 'stagflation'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2178239526","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say\nInvestors may be","content":"<p>Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say</p>\n<p>Investors may be taking the wrong lessons from the 1970s.</p>\n<p>It's hardly a fond memory, but surging prices in the U.S. and other countries this year have investors and pundits banking on a rerun of 1970s-era \"stagflation\" -- a demoralizing combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation. The comparisons are understandable, but superficial, offering little insight into what's actually happening below the surface, said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a phone interview.</p>\n<p>Why understandable? \"We haven't seen an environment where inflation was mostly driven by supply shocks since the 1970s,\" said Boivin, a former Bank of Canada deputy governor. But that's largely where the comparisons end.</p>\n<p>Inflation in the 1970s was amplified by oil embargoes that sent energy prices soaring, slowing the economy and feeding inflation. In the current case, the supply shocks are in large part the result of a demand surge tied to the restart of the global economy after the COVID-19 shutdown. That's an important difference.</p>\n<p>Mirror opposites</p>\n<p>In fact, the 1970s and the current situation are opposites in important ways, Boivin said. The stagflation of half a century ago came as growth and activity exceeded the global economy's productive capacity. Now, the economy is running up against supply-chain bottlenecks, which isn't the same thing. In fact, the economy is still operating below its productive capacity, he said.</p>\n<p>That means supply will eventually rise to meet demand, he said, instead of the 1970s experience of demand going down to meet supply.</p>\n<p>And while both episodes share soaring oil prices, the story in the 1970s was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> in which the oil supply shutdowns by producers slowed the economy and eroded its operating capacity. Energy prices are jumping now because the economy has restarted, \"and there's no way to restart without energy,\" Boivin said. \"The causality runs the other way.\"</p>\n<p>'Inflationary boom'</p>\n<p>Other economists have made similar points.</p>\n<p>\"To be in stagflation, the economy needs by definition to be stagnating, and the evidence for this is quite thin,\" said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, in an Oct. 18 note. \"By all accounts, the economy remains firmly in boom mode.\"</p>\n<p>To detect signs of stagflation, Dutta used the Institute for Supply Management's new orders and prices paid indexes.</p>\n<p>On one axis, he put new orders, which serve as a proxy for the demand side of the equation, or how much customers are buying. On the other, he put prices paid, a proxy for inflation. (See chart below).</p>\n<p>For the economy to be in stagflation, new orders must be below their long-run average -- reflecting weak demand from customers -- while prices paidrun above its long-run average -- meaning inflation is high, Dutta explained. Instead, as shown by the red dots representing 2021 monthly readings, the economy is in an \"inflationary boom,\" he said, with new orders and prices both strong.</p>\n<p>And then theres' the labor market. Indeed, part of what put the \"stag\" in the stagflation of the 1970s was the high unemployment that accompanied rising prices.</p>\n<p>\"At 4.8% today, the unemployment rate is below its 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-year averages (and so on; you get the picture),\" wrote Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Monday note.</p>\n<p>\"While the economy is still a few million jobs shy of pre-COVID, the number of job openings is at records and quit rates are soaring,\" he said.</p>\n<p>Policy mistake ahead?</p>\n<p>That doesn't mean inflation isn't a concern. And rising inflation expectations, a key metric watched by central bankers, could become a problem. Boivin worries that some policy makers will be too quick and aggressive in responding to inflation increases that monetary policy is ill-equipped to address.</p>\n<p>That would risk needlessly destroying demand when what is wanted is bottlenecks to resolve themselves and supply to come back, said the former monetary policy maker. After all, tightening monetary policy would do little to unclog port or fix shortages of semiconductors that have snarled supply chains.</p>\n<p>Traders have pulled forward expectations for interest-rate increases and stoking fears that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will slam on the brakes more aggressively than previously expected, risking an economic downturn.</p>\n<p>High-profile investors, including hedge-fund titans Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn, have argued that Fed policy makers are inflation creators rather than inflation fighters. And Jack Dorsey, chief executive of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> Inc. (TWTR) and Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> late Friday warned that \"hyperinflation\" was coming to the U.S. and global economy.</p>\n<p>Major stock-market indexes have continued to power higher after stumbling in September as stagflation fears mounted. Investors have wrestled with how to trade inflation as the economy reopens, gauging the role of equities as an inflation hedge versus fears of a rerun of the stagflation scenario.</p>\n<p>Equities struggled to keep up with inflation between 1969 and 1982, noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, earlier this year, posting a compounded annual growth rate of negative 0.8% as the economy and the labor market were rocked by rising prices.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended at records on Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 up more than 21% so far in 2021 and the blue-chip gauge up nearly 17%.</p>\n<p>Not 'automatically' bad for equities</p>\n<p>So how long will inflation pressures persist? Anyone making projections should do so with a large sense of humility given the largely unprecedented nature of the post-pandemic restart, Boivin prefaced, saying it would be reasonable to expect high inflation to persist through the first half and perhaps into the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p>It's more important, he said, to recognize the \"nature\" of the current inflation rise than the time frame. Inflation is likely to remain well above target in 2022 and will remain above target, on average, over the next five years, Boivin said.</p>\n<p>For investors, that's not a bond-friendly environment, he said, with the BlackRock Investment Institute favoring inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. It's not an environment that's \"automatically\" bad for equities or other risk assets however, \"which leaves us net-net underweight government bonds but overweight global equities\" as investors see some inflation with a muted policy response.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why it's wrong to compare today's inflation surge to 1970s-style 'stagflation'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy it's wrong to compare today's inflation surge to 1970s-style 'stagflation'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-27 23:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say</p>\n<p>Investors may be taking the wrong lessons from the 1970s.</p>\n<p>It's hardly a fond memory, but surging prices in the U.S. and other countries this year have investors and pundits banking on a rerun of 1970s-era \"stagflation\" -- a demoralizing combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation. The comparisons are understandable, but superficial, offering little insight into what's actually happening below the surface, said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a phone interview.</p>\n<p>Why understandable? \"We haven't seen an environment where inflation was mostly driven by supply shocks since the 1970s,\" said Boivin, a former Bank of Canada deputy governor. But that's largely where the comparisons end.</p>\n<p>Inflation in the 1970s was amplified by oil embargoes that sent energy prices soaring, slowing the economy and feeding inflation. In the current case, the supply shocks are in large part the result of a demand surge tied to the restart of the global economy after the COVID-19 shutdown. That's an important difference.</p>\n<p>Mirror opposites</p>\n<p>In fact, the 1970s and the current situation are opposites in important ways, Boivin said. The stagflation of half a century ago came as growth and activity exceeded the global economy's productive capacity. Now, the economy is running up against supply-chain bottlenecks, which isn't the same thing. In fact, the economy is still operating below its productive capacity, he said.</p>\n<p>That means supply will eventually rise to meet demand, he said, instead of the 1970s experience of demand going down to meet supply.</p>\n<p>And while both episodes share soaring oil prices, the story in the 1970s was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> in which the oil supply shutdowns by producers slowed the economy and eroded its operating capacity. Energy prices are jumping now because the economy has restarted, \"and there's no way to restart without energy,\" Boivin said. \"The causality runs the other way.\"</p>\n<p>'Inflationary boom'</p>\n<p>Other economists have made similar points.</p>\n<p>\"To be in stagflation, the economy needs by definition to be stagnating, and the evidence for this is quite thin,\" said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, in an Oct. 18 note. \"By all accounts, the economy remains firmly in boom mode.\"</p>\n<p>To detect signs of stagflation, Dutta used the Institute for Supply Management's new orders and prices paid indexes.</p>\n<p>On one axis, he put new orders, which serve as a proxy for the demand side of the equation, or how much customers are buying. On the other, he put prices paid, a proxy for inflation. (See chart below).</p>\n<p>For the economy to be in stagflation, new orders must be below their long-run average -- reflecting weak demand from customers -- while prices paidrun above its long-run average -- meaning inflation is high, Dutta explained. Instead, as shown by the red dots representing 2021 monthly readings, the economy is in an \"inflationary boom,\" he said, with new orders and prices both strong.</p>\n<p>And then theres' the labor market. Indeed, part of what put the \"stag\" in the stagflation of the 1970s was the high unemployment that accompanied rising prices.</p>\n<p>\"At 4.8% today, the unemployment rate is below its 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-year averages (and so on; you get the picture),\" wrote Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Monday note.</p>\n<p>\"While the economy is still a few million jobs shy of pre-COVID, the number of job openings is at records and quit rates are soaring,\" he said.</p>\n<p>Policy mistake ahead?</p>\n<p>That doesn't mean inflation isn't a concern. And rising inflation expectations, a key metric watched by central bankers, could become a problem. Boivin worries that some policy makers will be too quick and aggressive in responding to inflation increases that monetary policy is ill-equipped to address.</p>\n<p>That would risk needlessly destroying demand when what is wanted is bottlenecks to resolve themselves and supply to come back, said the former monetary policy maker. After all, tightening monetary policy would do little to unclog port or fix shortages of semiconductors that have snarled supply chains.</p>\n<p>Traders have pulled forward expectations for interest-rate increases and stoking fears that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will slam on the brakes more aggressively than previously expected, risking an economic downturn.</p>\n<p>High-profile investors, including hedge-fund titans Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn, have argued that Fed policy makers are inflation creators rather than inflation fighters. And Jack Dorsey, chief executive of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> Inc. (TWTR) and Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> late Friday warned that \"hyperinflation\" was coming to the U.S. and global economy.</p>\n<p>Major stock-market indexes have continued to power higher after stumbling in September as stagflation fears mounted. Investors have wrestled with how to trade inflation as the economy reopens, gauging the role of equities as an inflation hedge versus fears of a rerun of the stagflation scenario.</p>\n<p>Equities struggled to keep up with inflation between 1969 and 1982, noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, earlier this year, posting a compounded annual growth rate of negative 0.8% as the economy and the labor market were rocked by rising prices.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended at records on Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 up more than 21% so far in 2021 and the blue-chip gauge up nearly 17%.</p>\n<p>Not 'automatically' bad for equities</p>\n<p>So how long will inflation pressures persist? Anyone making projections should do so with a large sense of humility given the largely unprecedented nature of the post-pandemic restart, Boivin prefaced, saying it would be reasonable to expect high inflation to persist through the first half and perhaps into the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p>It's more important, he said, to recognize the \"nature\" of the current inflation rise than the time frame. Inflation is likely to remain well above target in 2022 and will remain above target, on average, over the next five years, Boivin said.</p>\n<p>For investors, that's not a bond-friendly environment, he said, with the BlackRock Investment Institute favoring inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. It's not an environment that's \"automatically\" bad for equities or other risk assets however, \"which leaves us net-net underweight government bonds but overweight global equities\" as investors see some inflation with a muted policy response.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2178239526","content_text":"Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say\nInvestors may be taking the wrong lessons from the 1970s.\nIt's hardly a fond memory, but surging prices in the U.S. and other countries this year have investors and pundits banking on a rerun of 1970s-era \"stagflation\" -- a demoralizing combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation. The comparisons are understandable, but superficial, offering little insight into what's actually happening below the surface, said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a phone interview.\nWhy understandable? \"We haven't seen an environment where inflation was mostly driven by supply shocks since the 1970s,\" said Boivin, a former Bank of Canada deputy governor. But that's largely where the comparisons end.\nInflation in the 1970s was amplified by oil embargoes that sent energy prices soaring, slowing the economy and feeding inflation. In the current case, the supply shocks are in large part the result of a demand surge tied to the restart of the global economy after the COVID-19 shutdown. That's an important difference.\nMirror opposites\nIn fact, the 1970s and the current situation are opposites in important ways, Boivin said. The stagflation of half a century ago came as growth and activity exceeded the global economy's productive capacity. Now, the economy is running up against supply-chain bottlenecks, which isn't the same thing. In fact, the economy is still operating below its productive capacity, he said.\nThat means supply will eventually rise to meet demand, he said, instead of the 1970s experience of demand going down to meet supply.\nAnd while both episodes share soaring oil prices, the story in the 1970s was one in which the oil supply shutdowns by producers slowed the economy and eroded its operating capacity. Energy prices are jumping now because the economy has restarted, \"and there's no way to restart without energy,\" Boivin said. \"The causality runs the other way.\"\n'Inflationary boom'\nOther economists have made similar points.\n\"To be in stagflation, the economy needs by definition to be stagnating, and the evidence for this is quite thin,\" said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, in an Oct. 18 note. \"By all accounts, the economy remains firmly in boom mode.\"\nTo detect signs of stagflation, Dutta used the Institute for Supply Management's new orders and prices paid indexes.\nOn one axis, he put new orders, which serve as a proxy for the demand side of the equation, or how much customers are buying. On the other, he put prices paid, a proxy for inflation. (See chart below).\nFor the economy to be in stagflation, new orders must be below their long-run average -- reflecting weak demand from customers -- while prices paidrun above its long-run average -- meaning inflation is high, Dutta explained. Instead, as shown by the red dots representing 2021 monthly readings, the economy is in an \"inflationary boom,\" he said, with new orders and prices both strong.\nAnd then theres' the labor market. Indeed, part of what put the \"stag\" in the stagflation of the 1970s was the high unemployment that accompanied rising prices.\n\"At 4.8% today, the unemployment rate is below its 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-year averages (and so on; you get the picture),\" wrote Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Monday note.\n\"While the economy is still a few million jobs shy of pre-COVID, the number of job openings is at records and quit rates are soaring,\" he said.\nPolicy mistake ahead?\nThat doesn't mean inflation isn't a concern. And rising inflation expectations, a key metric watched by central bankers, could become a problem. Boivin worries that some policy makers will be too quick and aggressive in responding to inflation increases that monetary policy is ill-equipped to address.\nThat would risk needlessly destroying demand when what is wanted is bottlenecks to resolve themselves and supply to come back, said the former monetary policy maker. After all, tightening monetary policy would do little to unclog port or fix shortages of semiconductors that have snarled supply chains.\nTraders have pulled forward expectations for interest-rate increases and stoking fears that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will slam on the brakes more aggressively than previously expected, risking an economic downturn.\nHigh-profile investors, including hedge-fund titans Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn, have argued that Fed policy makers are inflation creators rather than inflation fighters. And Jack Dorsey, chief executive of Twitter Inc. (TWTR) and Square Inc. $(SQ)$ late Friday warned that \"hyperinflation\" was coming to the U.S. and global economy.\nMajor stock-market indexes have continued to power higher after stumbling in September as stagflation fears mounted. Investors have wrestled with how to trade inflation as the economy reopens, gauging the role of equities as an inflation hedge versus fears of a rerun of the stagflation scenario.\nEquities struggled to keep up with inflation between 1969 and 1982, noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, earlier this year, posting a compounded annual growth rate of negative 0.8% as the economy and the labor market were rocked by rising prices.\nThe S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended at records on Monday, with the S&P 500 up more than 21% so far in 2021 and the blue-chip gauge up nearly 17%.\nNot 'automatically' bad for equities\nSo how long will inflation pressures persist? Anyone making projections should do so with a large sense of humility given the largely unprecedented nature of the post-pandemic restart, Boivin prefaced, saying it would be reasonable to expect high inflation to persist through the first half and perhaps into the second half of 2022.\nIt's more important, he said, to recognize the \"nature\" of the current inflation rise than the time frame. Inflation is likely to remain well above target in 2022 and will remain above target, on average, over the next five years, Boivin said.\nFor investors, that's not a bond-friendly environment, he said, with the BlackRock Investment Institute favoring inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. It's not an environment that's \"automatically\" bad for equities or other risk assets however, \"which leaves us net-net underweight government bonds but overweight global equities\" as investors see some inflation with a muted policy response.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129866860,"gmtCreate":1624369146650,"gmtModify":1624369146650,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>天啊，看来货源很紧，发行量比boss多，中签市值少了近75%。还有，6.18中石化突击入股做战略投资者，感觉是大肉喔[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>天啊，看来货源很紧，发行量比boss多，中签市值少了近75%。还有，6.18中石化突击入股做战略投资者，感觉是大肉喔[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$满帮(YMM)$天啊，看来货源很紧，发行量比boss多，中签市值少了近75%。还有，6.18中石化突击入股做战略投资者，感觉是大肉喔[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a1457d8aab1c90dddfe21df4edf742","width":"825","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129866860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165033779,"gmtCreate":1624079713891,"gmtModify":1624079713891,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"才刚开始呢，调整能这么快好吗，现金为王吧，下半年，到时机会多的是。","listText":"才刚开始呢，调整能这么快好吗，现金为王吧，下半年，到时机会多的是。","text":"才刚开始呢，调整能这么快好吗，现金为王吧，下半年，到时机会多的是。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165033779","repostId":"1145549454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186574485,"gmtCreate":1623515380947,"gmtModify":1623515380947,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很好的比喻","listText":"很好的比喻","text":"很好的比喻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186574485","repostId":"1172667270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188191875,"gmtCreate":1623423317197,"gmtModify":1623427541477,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">$BOSS直聘(BZ)$</a>谢谢老虎的大鸡腿，老虎股价[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">$BOSS直聘(BZ)$</a>谢谢老虎的大鸡腿，老虎股价[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"$BOSS直聘(BZ)$谢谢老虎的大鸡腿，老虎股价[看涨] [看涨] [看涨]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d725a7ecccab8164037049f60c8c651c","width":"825","height":"1242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188191875","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3510709043495527","authorId":"3510709043495527","name":"苗苗413","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3510709043495527","authorIdStr":"3510709043495527"},"content":"你打多少股啊？中这么多","text":"你打多少股啊？中这么多","html":"你打多少股啊？中这么多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191566983,"gmtCreate":1620890878542,"gmtModify":1620890878542,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今年恐怕不太平","listText":"今年恐怕不太平","text":"今年恐怕不太平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191566983","repostId":"2135764929","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191568765,"gmtCreate":1620890855857,"gmtModify":1620890855857,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"智商税","listText":"智商税","text":"智商税","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191568765","repostId":"1197735962","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106622089,"gmtCreate":1620114398741,"gmtModify":1620114398741,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[晕]&nbsp;[晕]&nbsp;[晕]&nbsp;","listText":"[晕]&nbsp;[晕]&nbsp;[晕]&nbsp;","text":"[晕] [晕] [晕]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106622089","repostId":"1167821230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167821230","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620092245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167821230?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 09:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度集团跌近2%，触及回港上市以来低位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167821230","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月4日，百度集团-SW跌近2%，触及回港上市以来低位至200.40港元/股。隔夜美股收跌2.56%，报204.94美元。","content":"<p>5月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>跌近2%，触及回港上市以来低位至200.40港元/股。隔夜美股收跌2.56%，报204.94美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09fc5620703e7b4e6c8de7a7da78292f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度集团跌近2%，触及回港上市以来低位</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百度集团跌近2%，触及回港上市以来低位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-04 09:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>跌近2%，触及回港上市以来低位至200.40港元/股。隔夜美股收跌2.56%，报204.94美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09fc5620703e7b4e6c8de7a7da78292f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a814138696b6daf296c3939a776531","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BIDU":"百度","09888":"百度集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167821230","content_text":"5月4日，百度集团-SW跌近2%，触及回港上市以来低位至200.40港元/股。隔夜美股收跌2.56%，报204.94美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106626256,"gmtCreate":1620114377075,"gmtModify":1620114377075,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;","text":"[惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106626256","repostId":"1154035946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154035946","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620109093,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154035946?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比尔盖茨微博发文希望保护隐私","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154035946","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月4日，今日，刚刚宣布与妻子梅琳达离婚的比尔盖茨在微博发文。全文如下：经过慎重的考虑和维护关系的努力，我们做出了结束婚姻的决定。在过去27年里，我们养育了三个出色的孩子，并且建立了一个在世界各地开展","content":"<p>5月4日，今日，刚刚宣布与妻子梅琳达离婚的比尔盖茨在微博发文。全文如下：经过慎重的考虑和维护关系的努力，我们做出了结束婚姻的决定。在过去27年里，我们养育了三个出色的孩子，并且建立了一个在世界各地开展工作的基金会，致力于帮助所有人过上健康而富有成效的生活。我们将秉承这一信念，继续我们在基金会的工作。但我们不再认为在人生的下一阶段，我们能够作为夫妻携手成长。在开启这段新生活时，我们希望我们的家庭能够获得空间和隐私。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c4f86c32259dbe1aef50a5868e1893\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>相关阅读：</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1107648227\" target=\"_blank\">比尔·盖茨与梅琳达宣布离婚</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1158178287\" target=\"_blank\">比尔·盖茨夫妇宣布离婚！刚刚，女儿珍妮弗发声</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1176105895\" target=\"_blank\">美媒曝盖茨离婚文件：由梅琳达提起申请，未来不要求配偶支持</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1111644325\" target=\"_blank\">“最贵离婚”纪录或被打破！盖茨1305亿资产怎么分？</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比尔盖茨微博发文希望保护隐私</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比尔盖茨微博发文希望保护隐私\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-04 14:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月4日，今日，刚刚宣布与妻子梅琳达离婚的比尔盖茨在微博发文。全文如下：经过慎重的考虑和维护关系的努力，我们做出了结束婚姻的决定。在过去27年里，我们养育了三个出色的孩子，并且建立了一个在世界各地开展工作的基金会，致力于帮助所有人过上健康而富有成效的生活。我们将秉承这一信念，继续我们在基金会的工作。但我们不再认为在人生的下一阶段，我们能够作为夫妻携手成长。在开启这段新生活时，我们希望我们的家庭能够获得空间和隐私。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c4f86c32259dbe1aef50a5868e1893\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>相关阅读：</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1107648227\" target=\"_blank\">比尔·盖茨与梅琳达宣布离婚</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1158178287\" target=\"_blank\">比尔·盖茨夫妇宣布离婚！刚刚，女儿珍妮弗发声</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1176105895\" target=\"_blank\">美媒曝盖茨离婚文件：由梅琳达提起申请，未来不要求配偶支持</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1111644325\" target=\"_blank\">“最贵离婚”纪录或被打破！盖茨1305亿资产怎么分？</a></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/979659bd61f4fd32becbe7846e437adf","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154035946","content_text":"5月4日，今日，刚刚宣布与妻子梅琳达离婚的比尔盖茨在微博发文。全文如下：经过慎重的考虑和维护关系的努力，我们做出了结束婚姻的决定。在过去27年里，我们养育了三个出色的孩子，并且建立了一个在世界各地开展工作的基金会，致力于帮助所有人过上健康而富有成效的生活。我们将秉承这一信念，继续我们在基金会的工作。但我们不再认为在人生的下一阶段，我们能够作为夫妻携手成长。在开启这段新生活时，我们希望我们的家庭能够获得空间和隐私。相关阅读：比尔·盖茨与梅琳达宣布离婚比尔·盖茨夫妇宣布离婚！刚刚，女儿珍妮弗发声美媒曝盖茨离婚文件：由梅琳达提起申请，未来不要求配偶支持“最贵离婚”纪录或被打破！盖茨1305亿资产怎么分？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":108824705,"gmtCreate":1620012431707,"gmtModify":1620012431707,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108824705","repostId":"1117138743","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117138743","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619953637,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117138743?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-02 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团在港交所公告称，董事会欣然宣布，其接获京东物流通知，京东物流已就拟议分拆向香港联交所递交聆讯后资料集。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74128ba8dc013999c7633603bacff800\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\"></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e108e80ab0d5329f36d3b166f67111","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117138743","content_text":"京东集团在港交所公告称，董事会欣然宣布，其接获京东物流通知，京东物流已就拟议分拆向香港联交所递交聆讯后资料集。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":108824256,"gmtCreate":1620012416075,"gmtModify":1620012416075,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"[难过]&nbsp;","text":"[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108824256","repostId":"1175938106","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348915456,"gmtCreate":1617879048275,"gmtModify":1617879048275,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"[难过]&nbsp;","text":"[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348915456","repostId":"1109266497","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109266497","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617858825,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109266497?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-08 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果推迟MacBook和iPad生产，比亚迪电子下挫超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109266497","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据日经新闻报道，由于全球零部件短缺，部分MacBook和iPad产品的生产已经推迟。这表明，即便如苹果这般拥有强大采购能力的公司，也未能幸免于史无前例的供应短缺。知情人士透露，芯片短缺已经导致MacB","content":"<p>据日经新闻报道，由于全球零部件短缺，部分MacBook和iPad产品的生产已经推迟。这表明，即便如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>这般拥有强大采购能力的公司，也未能幸免于史无前例的供应短缺。</p><p>知情人士透露，芯片短缺已经导致MacBook生产中的关键步骤延期，即在最终组装之前，将零部件安装到印刷电路板之上。同时，部分iPad的组装，也因为显示屏和显示组件的短缺而延迟。</p><p>知情人士说，由于生产延期，苹果已经将这两款设备的部分零部件订单从今年上半年推迟到下半年。业内知情人士和专家称，这些延期意味着，芯片短缺问题已越来越严重，并可能对规模较小的科技公司造成更为严重的冲击。</p><p>苹果拥有全球最复杂的供应链，以其丰富的供应链管理经验和调动供应商的迅捷速度著称。在汽车制造商和电子设备制造商备受全球芯片短缺困扰之际，这些优势已经帮助苹果降低了不少麻烦。</p><p>两名知情人士称，尽管苹果的旗舰产品iPhone的某些零部件供应“相当紧张”，但iPhone的生产计划目前尚未收到供应短缺的影响。总的来说，零部件短缺对苹果而言，仍是一个供应链问题，尚未对消费者产品的供应造成影响。</p><p>目前，苹果拒绝对此事发表评论。</p><p>受此消息影响，港股苹果概念股短线下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">比亚迪电子</a>跌5.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">高伟电子</a>跌0.2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02018\">瑞声科技</a>涨幅缩窄至3.55%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cd3c3c4e45e8fe6862c60f1f0149ba\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果推迟MacBook和iPad生产，比亚迪电子下挫超5%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>这般拥有强大采购能力的公司，也未能幸免于史无前例的供应短缺。</p><p>知情人士透露，芯片短缺已经导致MacBook生产中的关键步骤延期，即在最终组装之前，将零部件安装到印刷电路板之上。同时，部分iPad的组装，也因为显示屏和显示组件的短缺而延迟。</p><p>知情人士说，由于生产延期，苹果已经将这两款设备的部分零部件订单从今年上半年推迟到下半年。业内知情人士和专家称，这些延期意味着，芯片短缺问题已越来越严重，并可能对规模较小的科技公司造成更为严重的冲击。</p><p>苹果拥有全球最复杂的供应链，以其丰富的供应链管理经验和调动供应商的迅捷速度著称。在汽车制造商和电子设备制造商备受全球芯片短缺困扰之际，这些优势已经帮助苹果降低了不少麻烦。</p><p>两名知情人士称，尽管苹果的旗舰产品iPhone的某些零部件供应“相当紧张”，但iPhone的生产计划目前尚未收到供应短缺的影响。总的来说，零部件短缺对苹果而言，仍是一个供应链问题，尚未对消费者产品的供应造成影响。</p><p>目前，苹果拒绝对此事发表评论。</p><p>受此消息影响，港股苹果概念股短线下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">比亚迪电子</a>跌5.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">高伟电子</a>跌0.2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02018\">瑞声科技</a>涨幅缩窄至3.55%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cd3c3c4e45e8fe6862c60f1f0149ba\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"00285":"比亚迪电子","AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109266497","content_text":"据日经新闻报道，由于全球零部件短缺，部分MacBook和iPad产品的生产已经推迟。这表明，即便如苹果这般拥有强大采购能力的公司，也未能幸免于史无前例的供应短缺。知情人士透露，芯片短缺已经导致MacBook生产中的关键步骤延期，即在最终组装之前，将零部件安装到印刷电路板之上。同时，部分iPad的组装，也因为显示屏和显示组件的短缺而延迟。知情人士说，由于生产延期，苹果已经将这两款设备的部分零部件订单从今年上半年推迟到下半年。业内知情人士和专家称，这些延期意味着，芯片短缺问题已越来越严重，并可能对规模较小的科技公司造成更为严重的冲击。苹果拥有全球最复杂的供应链，以其丰富的供应链管理经验和调动供应商的迅捷速度著称。在汽车制造商和电子设备制造商备受全球芯片短缺困扰之际，这些优势已经帮助苹果降低了不少麻烦。两名知情人士称，尽管苹果的旗舰产品iPhone的某些零部件供应“相当紧张”，但iPhone的生产计划目前尚未收到供应短缺的影响。总的来说，零部件短缺对苹果而言，仍是一个供应链问题，尚未对消费者产品的供应造成影响。目前，苹果拒绝对此事发表评论。受此消息影响，港股苹果概念股短线下挫，比亚迪电子跌5.5%，高伟电子跌0.2%，瑞声科技涨幅缩窄至3.55%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351738770,"gmtCreate":1616632263290,"gmtModify":1616632263290,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都撤了吧，别碰中概股","listText":"都撤了吧，别碰中概股","text":"都撤了吧，别碰中概股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351738770","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327990623,"gmtCreate":1616045759262,"gmtModify":1703496832841,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"肉是肯定的，就看老虎能拿到多少货了","listText":"肉是肯定的，就看老虎能拿到多少货了","text":"肉是肯定的，就看老虎能拿到多少货了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6212a01740e9ca8531f0ffc5452102b5","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327990623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":188191875,"gmtCreate":1623423317197,"gmtModify":1623427541477,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[看涨]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d725a7ecccab8164037049f60c8c651c","width":"825","height":"1242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188191875","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3510709043495527","authorId":"3510709043495527","name":"苗苗413","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3510709043495527","authorIdStr":"3510709043495527"},"content":"你打多少股啊？中这么多","text":"你打多少股啊？中这么多","html":"你打多少股啊？中这么多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382705976,"gmtCreate":1613481057095,"gmtModify":1613484318774,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"观点 | 下调商户服务费标准对美团的影响有多大？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213605334","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"文章来源：华尔街见闻下调商户服务费标准对美团的影响有多大？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>一、事项</b></p><p>2月18号，发改委等多部委发布《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》，其中针对餐饮业纾困扶持措施中指出“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准，降低相关餐饮企业经营成本。引导互联网平台企业对疫情中高风险地区所在的县级行政区域内的餐饮企业，给予阶段性商户服务费优惠”，引起市场对美团乃至互联网行业政策风险的担心。</p><p>周一，美团开盘跌超5%，但随后一路拉涨并翻红，最高涨0.5%。</p><p><b>二、政策偏向于疫情下帮助服务业纾困</b></p><p>华创证券刘欣团队认为从政策对互联网行业的监管进程来看，经过反垄断调查、价格规制、互联网金融业务监管、数据算法监管、信息保护、未成年人保护、劳动者保障等一系列政策，当前针对互联网行业监管框架已基本形成，结合网信办1月29号的互联网企业健康持续发展座谈会内容，监管已有较明确的缓和信号。</p><p>本次《服务业领域恢复发展政策》的初衷是政策上帮扶受疫情影响较大的困难行业，涉及服务、餐饮、零售、旅游、交运、民航等多个行业的税收、贷款、租金减免等优惠政策，并不是政策端单独针对互联网行业的收费标准规定，也并不是政策再次趋严的信号，因此华创证券依旧对互联网行业监管缓解的趋势保持乐观。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">海通证券</a>汪立亭团队认为，本政策更偏向于疫情下帮助服务业纾困，并非特定针对互联网企业， 对政策预期干扰不大；从公司层面来讲，2021年5月起美团试行“费率透明化” 改革，通过技术改变收费结构，降低中小商户抽成是更为切实的降本途径。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>姜娅、杨清朴表示，政策十分明确地强调了“阶段性”和“地区性”。</p><p><b>三、佣金率下调空间有多大</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">海通证券</a>认为，当前政策以“引导”为主，尚未明确下调比率。若根据 2021年3月份全国工商提案中“外卖平台抽拥在10%-15%区间才是餐饮企业可以接受的”进行预期。那么相较于美团2020年12.0%的佣金率，本次下调空间并不大。</p><p>华创证券认为，长期下调费率概率小。从长期看：6%~7%的技术服务费相比电商/打车平台的费率已处低位，利润率微薄。本次服务费优惠或对美团短期(22年H1)的佣金率和单均营业利润产生一定影响，从短期纾困期间来看：参考2020年3月份美团启动的“商户伙伴佣金返还计划”，对全国范围部分商户3%~5%佣金返还(非减免，可用于广告营销)对20Q1的佣金率影响在0.5pct左右。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>认为，美团的基础服务费率在互联网行业无论是国内还是全球横向比较看均已处很低水平，下调空间不大。长期来看，美团到店业务的下沉空间仍然较大，交易类属性有望不断增强，广告付费转化率提高带动到店业务变现能力继续提升。</p><p><b>四、政策对美团的影响</b></p><p>华创证券认为本政策对美团外卖服务费率的影响是短期(预估3~6个月)且区域性的(预计21年涉及到的中高风险地区在数百个，辐射商户占全国总商户比例有限)，而并不是一刀切的对商户服务费进行永久性下调。</p><p>海通证券认为，中长期来看，政策并未降低美团在交易撮合、履约服务方面的壁垒，政策对相应负外部性定价后，平台价值会以需求侧消费者粘性变现。</p><p>中信证券也认为发改委等部门的提法并非有意一刀切要求外卖平台降费，初衷主要在于帮助商户在困难时期降低一定的经营成本。引导平台经济让利相关条款引发的担忧已显过度，基本面层面对平台的边际影响有限，政策层面更不意味着新一轮政策监管，建议理性对待。</p></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>观点 | 下调商户服务费标准对美团的影响有多大？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | 下调商户服务费标准对美团的影响有多大？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-21 10:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022022109472180367f98&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一、事项2月18号，发改委等多部委发布《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》，其中针对餐饮业纾困扶持措施中指出“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准，降低相关餐饮企业经营成本。引导互联网平台企业对疫情中高风险地区所在的县级行政区域内的餐饮企业，给予阶段性商户服务费优惠”，引起市场对美团乃至互联网行业政策风险的担心。周一，美团开盘跌超5%，但随后一路拉涨并翻红，最高涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022022109472180367f98&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4589810b25a8b6d34214e0147613ce0c","relate_stocks":{"BK1583":"高瓴概念","BK1604":"节假日概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022022109472180367f98&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2213605334","content_text":"一、事项2月18号，发改委等多部委发布《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》，其中针对餐饮业纾困扶持措施中指出“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准，降低相关餐饮企业经营成本。引导互联网平台企业对疫情中高风险地区所在的县级行政区域内的餐饮企业，给予阶段性商户服务费优惠”，引起市场对美团乃至互联网行业政策风险的担心。周一，美团开盘跌超5%，但随后一路拉涨并翻红，最高涨0.5%。二、政策偏向于疫情下帮助服务业纾困华创证券刘欣团队认为从政策对互联网行业的监管进程来看，经过反垄断调查、价格规制、互联网金融业务监管、数据算法监管、信息保护、未成年人保护、劳动者保障等一系列政策，当前针对互联网行业监管框架已基本形成，结合网信办1月29号的互联网企业健康持续发展座谈会内容，监管已有较明确的缓和信号。本次《服务业领域恢复发展政策》的初衷是政策上帮扶受疫情影响较大的困难行业，涉及服务、餐饮、零售、旅游、交运、民航等多个行业的税收、贷款、租金减免等优惠政策，并不是政策端单独针对互联网行业的收费标准规定，也并不是政策再次趋严的信号，因此华创证券依旧对互联网行业监管缓解的趋势保持乐观。海通证券汪立亭团队认为，本政策更偏向于疫情下帮助服务业纾困，并非特定针对互联网企业， 对政策预期干扰不大；从公司层面来讲，2021年5月起美团试行“费率透明化” 改革，通过技术改变收费结构，降低中小商户抽成是更为切实的降本途径。中信证券姜娅、杨清朴表示，政策十分明确地强调了“阶段性”和“地区性”。三、佣金率下调空间有多大海通证券认为，当前政策以“引导”为主，尚未明确下调比率。若根据 2021年3月份全国工商提案中“外卖平台抽拥在10%-15%区间才是餐饮企业可以接受的”进行预期。那么相较于美团2020年12.0%的佣金率，本次下调空间并不大。华创证券认为，长期下调费率概率小。从长期看：6%~7%的技术服务费相比电商/打车平台的费率已处低位，利润率微薄。本次服务费优惠或对美团短期(22年H1)的佣金率和单均营业利润产生一定影响，从短期纾困期间来看：参考2020年3月份美团启动的“商户伙伴佣金返还计划”，对全国范围部分商户3%~5%佣金返还(非减免，可用于广告营销)对20Q1的佣金率影响在0.5pct左右。中信证券认为，美团的基础服务费率在互联网行业无论是国内还是全球横向比较看均已处很低水平，下调空间不大。长期来看，美团到店业务的下沉空间仍然较大，交易类属性有望不断增强，广告付费转化率提高带动到店业务变现能力继续提升。四、政策对美团的影响华创证券认为本政策对美团外卖服务费率的影响是短期(预估3~6个月)且区域性的(预计21年涉及到的中高风险地区在数百个，辐射商户占全国总商户比例有限)，而并不是一刀切的对商户服务费进行永久性下调。海通证券认为，中长期来看，政策并未降低美团在交易撮合、履约服务方面的壁垒，政策对相应负外部性定价后，平台价值会以需求侧消费者粘性变现。中信证券也认为发改委等部门的提法并非有意一刀切要求外卖平台降费，初衷主要在于帮助商户在困难时期降低一定的经营成本。引导平台经济让利相关条款引发的担忧已显过度，基本面层面对平台的边际影响有限，政策层面更不意味着新一轮政策监管，建议理性对待。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997000758,"gmtCreate":1567002720874,"gmtModify":1704715504786,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>风险偏向变了，估计要跌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>风险偏向变了，估计要跌。","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$风险偏向变了，估计要跌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995583192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":905964574,"gmtCreate":1560079068698,"gmtModify":1704699444582,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 下次中概股再有打新需要谨慎点了","listText":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 下次中概股再有打新需要谨慎点了","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 下次中概股再有打新需要谨慎点了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/905964574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855210618,"gmtCreate":1635377403749,"gmtModify":1635377403749,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855210618","repostId":"2178239526","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2178239526","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1635347820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2178239526?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-27 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why it's wrong to compare today's inflation surge to 1970s-style 'stagflation'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2178239526","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say\nInvestors may be","content":"<p>Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say</p>\n<p>Investors may be taking the wrong lessons from the 1970s.</p>\n<p>It's hardly a fond memory, but surging prices in the U.S. and other countries this year have investors and pundits banking on a rerun of 1970s-era \"stagflation\" -- a demoralizing combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation. The comparisons are understandable, but superficial, offering little insight into what's actually happening below the surface, said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a phone interview.</p>\n<p>Why understandable? \"We haven't seen an environment where inflation was mostly driven by supply shocks since the 1970s,\" said Boivin, a former Bank of Canada deputy governor. But that's largely where the comparisons end.</p>\n<p>Inflation in the 1970s was amplified by oil embargoes that sent energy prices soaring, slowing the economy and feeding inflation. In the current case, the supply shocks are in large part the result of a demand surge tied to the restart of the global economy after the COVID-19 shutdown. That's an important difference.</p>\n<p>Mirror opposites</p>\n<p>In fact, the 1970s and the current situation are opposites in important ways, Boivin said. The stagflation of half a century ago came as growth and activity exceeded the global economy's productive capacity. Now, the economy is running up against supply-chain bottlenecks, which isn't the same thing. In fact, the economy is still operating below its productive capacity, he said.</p>\n<p>That means supply will eventually rise to meet demand, he said, instead of the 1970s experience of demand going down to meet supply.</p>\n<p>And while both episodes share soaring oil prices, the story in the 1970s was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> in which the oil supply shutdowns by producers slowed the economy and eroded its operating capacity. Energy prices are jumping now because the economy has restarted, \"and there's no way to restart without energy,\" Boivin said. \"The causality runs the other way.\"</p>\n<p>'Inflationary boom'</p>\n<p>Other economists have made similar points.</p>\n<p>\"To be in stagflation, the economy needs by definition to be stagnating, and the evidence for this is quite thin,\" said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, in an Oct. 18 note. \"By all accounts, the economy remains firmly in boom mode.\"</p>\n<p>To detect signs of stagflation, Dutta used the Institute for Supply Management's new orders and prices paid indexes.</p>\n<p>On one axis, he put new orders, which serve as a proxy for the demand side of the equation, or how much customers are buying. On the other, he put prices paid, a proxy for inflation. (See chart below).</p>\n<p>For the economy to be in stagflation, new orders must be below their long-run average -- reflecting weak demand from customers -- while prices paidrun above its long-run average -- meaning inflation is high, Dutta explained. Instead, as shown by the red dots representing 2021 monthly readings, the economy is in an \"inflationary boom,\" he said, with new orders and prices both strong.</p>\n<p>And then theres' the labor market. Indeed, part of what put the \"stag\" in the stagflation of the 1970s was the high unemployment that accompanied rising prices.</p>\n<p>\"At 4.8% today, the unemployment rate is below its 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-year averages (and so on; you get the picture),\" wrote Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Monday note.</p>\n<p>\"While the economy is still a few million jobs shy of pre-COVID, the number of job openings is at records and quit rates are soaring,\" he said.</p>\n<p>Policy mistake ahead?</p>\n<p>That doesn't mean inflation isn't a concern. And rising inflation expectations, a key metric watched by central bankers, could become a problem. Boivin worries that some policy makers will be too quick and aggressive in responding to inflation increases that monetary policy is ill-equipped to address.</p>\n<p>That would risk needlessly destroying demand when what is wanted is bottlenecks to resolve themselves and supply to come back, said the former monetary policy maker. After all, tightening monetary policy would do little to unclog port or fix shortages of semiconductors that have snarled supply chains.</p>\n<p>Traders have pulled forward expectations for interest-rate increases and stoking fears that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will slam on the brakes more aggressively than previously expected, risking an economic downturn.</p>\n<p>High-profile investors, including hedge-fund titans Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn, have argued that Fed policy makers are inflation creators rather than inflation fighters. And Jack Dorsey, chief executive of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> Inc. (TWTR) and Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> late Friday warned that \"hyperinflation\" was coming to the U.S. and global economy.</p>\n<p>Major stock-market indexes have continued to power higher after stumbling in September as stagflation fears mounted. Investors have wrestled with how to trade inflation as the economy reopens, gauging the role of equities as an inflation hedge versus fears of a rerun of the stagflation scenario.</p>\n<p>Equities struggled to keep up with inflation between 1969 and 1982, noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, earlier this year, posting a compounded annual growth rate of negative 0.8% as the economy and the labor market were rocked by rising prices.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended at records on Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 up more than 21% so far in 2021 and the blue-chip gauge up nearly 17%.</p>\n<p>Not 'automatically' bad for equities</p>\n<p>So how long will inflation pressures persist? Anyone making projections should do so with a large sense of humility given the largely unprecedented nature of the post-pandemic restart, Boivin prefaced, saying it would be reasonable to expect high inflation to persist through the first half and perhaps into the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p>It's more important, he said, to recognize the \"nature\" of the current inflation rise than the time frame. Inflation is likely to remain well above target in 2022 and will remain above target, on average, over the next five years, Boivin said.</p>\n<p>For investors, that's not a bond-friendly environment, he said, with the BlackRock Investment Institute favoring inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. It's not an environment that's \"automatically\" bad for equities or other risk assets however, \"which leaves us net-net underweight government bonds but overweight global equities\" as investors see some inflation with a muted policy response.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why it's wrong to compare today's inflation surge to 1970s-style 'stagflation'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy it's wrong to compare today's inflation surge to 1970s-style 'stagflation'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-27 23:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say</p>\n<p>Investors may be taking the wrong lessons from the 1970s.</p>\n<p>It's hardly a fond memory, but surging prices in the U.S. and other countries this year have investors and pundits banking on a rerun of 1970s-era \"stagflation\" -- a demoralizing combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation. The comparisons are understandable, but superficial, offering little insight into what's actually happening below the surface, said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a phone interview.</p>\n<p>Why understandable? \"We haven't seen an environment where inflation was mostly driven by supply shocks since the 1970s,\" said Boivin, a former Bank of Canada deputy governor. But that's largely where the comparisons end.</p>\n<p>Inflation in the 1970s was amplified by oil embargoes that sent energy prices soaring, slowing the economy and feeding inflation. In the current case, the supply shocks are in large part the result of a demand surge tied to the restart of the global economy after the COVID-19 shutdown. That's an important difference.</p>\n<p>Mirror opposites</p>\n<p>In fact, the 1970s and the current situation are opposites in important ways, Boivin said. The stagflation of half a century ago came as growth and activity exceeded the global economy's productive capacity. Now, the economy is running up against supply-chain bottlenecks, which isn't the same thing. In fact, the economy is still operating below its productive capacity, he said.</p>\n<p>That means supply will eventually rise to meet demand, he said, instead of the 1970s experience of demand going down to meet supply.</p>\n<p>And while both episodes share soaring oil prices, the story in the 1970s was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> in which the oil supply shutdowns by producers slowed the economy and eroded its operating capacity. Energy prices are jumping now because the economy has restarted, \"and there's no way to restart without energy,\" Boivin said. \"The causality runs the other way.\"</p>\n<p>'Inflationary boom'</p>\n<p>Other economists have made similar points.</p>\n<p>\"To be in stagflation, the economy needs by definition to be stagnating, and the evidence for this is quite thin,\" said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, in an Oct. 18 note. \"By all accounts, the economy remains firmly in boom mode.\"</p>\n<p>To detect signs of stagflation, Dutta used the Institute for Supply Management's new orders and prices paid indexes.</p>\n<p>On one axis, he put new orders, which serve as a proxy for the demand side of the equation, or how much customers are buying. On the other, he put prices paid, a proxy for inflation. (See chart below).</p>\n<p>For the economy to be in stagflation, new orders must be below their long-run average -- reflecting weak demand from customers -- while prices paidrun above its long-run average -- meaning inflation is high, Dutta explained. Instead, as shown by the red dots representing 2021 monthly readings, the economy is in an \"inflationary boom,\" he said, with new orders and prices both strong.</p>\n<p>And then theres' the labor market. Indeed, part of what put the \"stag\" in the stagflation of the 1970s was the high unemployment that accompanied rising prices.</p>\n<p>\"At 4.8% today, the unemployment rate is below its 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-year averages (and so on; you get the picture),\" wrote Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Monday note.</p>\n<p>\"While the economy is still a few million jobs shy of pre-COVID, the number of job openings is at records and quit rates are soaring,\" he said.</p>\n<p>Policy mistake ahead?</p>\n<p>That doesn't mean inflation isn't a concern. And rising inflation expectations, a key metric watched by central bankers, could become a problem. Boivin worries that some policy makers will be too quick and aggressive in responding to inflation increases that monetary policy is ill-equipped to address.</p>\n<p>That would risk needlessly destroying demand when what is wanted is bottlenecks to resolve themselves and supply to come back, said the former monetary policy maker. After all, tightening monetary policy would do little to unclog port or fix shortages of semiconductors that have snarled supply chains.</p>\n<p>Traders have pulled forward expectations for interest-rate increases and stoking fears that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will slam on the brakes more aggressively than previously expected, risking an economic downturn.</p>\n<p>High-profile investors, including hedge-fund titans Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn, have argued that Fed policy makers are inflation creators rather than inflation fighters. And Jack Dorsey, chief executive of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> Inc. (TWTR) and Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> late Friday warned that \"hyperinflation\" was coming to the U.S. and global economy.</p>\n<p>Major stock-market indexes have continued to power higher after stumbling in September as stagflation fears mounted. Investors have wrestled with how to trade inflation as the economy reopens, gauging the role of equities as an inflation hedge versus fears of a rerun of the stagflation scenario.</p>\n<p>Equities struggled to keep up with inflation between 1969 and 1982, noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, earlier this year, posting a compounded annual growth rate of negative 0.8% as the economy and the labor market were rocked by rising prices.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended at records on Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 up more than 21% so far in 2021 and the blue-chip gauge up nearly 17%.</p>\n<p>Not 'automatically' bad for equities</p>\n<p>So how long will inflation pressures persist? Anyone making projections should do so with a large sense of humility given the largely unprecedented nature of the post-pandemic restart, Boivin prefaced, saying it would be reasonable to expect high inflation to persist through the first half and perhaps into the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p>It's more important, he said, to recognize the \"nature\" of the current inflation rise than the time frame. Inflation is likely to remain well above target in 2022 and will remain above target, on average, over the next five years, Boivin said.</p>\n<p>For investors, that's not a bond-friendly environment, he said, with the BlackRock Investment Institute favoring inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. It's not an environment that's \"automatically\" bad for equities or other risk assets however, \"which leaves us net-net underweight government bonds but overweight global equities\" as investors see some inflation with a muted policy response.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2178239526","content_text":"Booming demand sparks supply shortages, a key difference with 1970s, economists say\nInvestors may be taking the wrong lessons from the 1970s.\nIt's hardly a fond memory, but surging prices in the U.S. and other countries this year have investors and pundits banking on a rerun of 1970s-era \"stagflation\" -- a demoralizing combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation. The comparisons are understandable, but superficial, offering little insight into what's actually happening below the surface, said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a phone interview.\nWhy understandable? \"We haven't seen an environment where inflation was mostly driven by supply shocks since the 1970s,\" said Boivin, a former Bank of Canada deputy governor. But that's largely where the comparisons end.\nInflation in the 1970s was amplified by oil embargoes that sent energy prices soaring, slowing the economy and feeding inflation. In the current case, the supply shocks are in large part the result of a demand surge tied to the restart of the global economy after the COVID-19 shutdown. That's an important difference.\nMirror opposites\nIn fact, the 1970s and the current situation are opposites in important ways, Boivin said. The stagflation of half a century ago came as growth and activity exceeded the global economy's productive capacity. Now, the economy is running up against supply-chain bottlenecks, which isn't the same thing. In fact, the economy is still operating below its productive capacity, he said.\nThat means supply will eventually rise to meet demand, he said, instead of the 1970s experience of demand going down to meet supply.\nAnd while both episodes share soaring oil prices, the story in the 1970s was one in which the oil supply shutdowns by producers slowed the economy and eroded its operating capacity. Energy prices are jumping now because the economy has restarted, \"and there's no way to restart without energy,\" Boivin said. \"The causality runs the other way.\"\n'Inflationary boom'\nOther economists have made similar points.\n\"To be in stagflation, the economy needs by definition to be stagnating, and the evidence for this is quite thin,\" said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, in an Oct. 18 note. \"By all accounts, the economy remains firmly in boom mode.\"\nTo detect signs of stagflation, Dutta used the Institute for Supply Management's new orders and prices paid indexes.\nOn one axis, he put new orders, which serve as a proxy for the demand side of the equation, or how much customers are buying. On the other, he put prices paid, a proxy for inflation. (See chart below).\nFor the economy to be in stagflation, new orders must be below their long-run average -- reflecting weak demand from customers -- while prices paidrun above its long-run average -- meaning inflation is high, Dutta explained. Instead, as shown by the red dots representing 2021 monthly readings, the economy is in an \"inflationary boom,\" he said, with new orders and prices both strong.\nAnd then theres' the labor market. Indeed, part of what put the \"stag\" in the stagflation of the 1970s was the high unemployment that accompanied rising prices.\n\"At 4.8% today, the unemployment rate is below its 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-year averages (and so on; you get the picture),\" wrote Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, in a Monday note.\n\"While the economy is still a few million jobs shy of pre-COVID, the number of job openings is at records and quit rates are soaring,\" he said.\nPolicy mistake ahead?\nThat doesn't mean inflation isn't a concern. And rising inflation expectations, a key metric watched by central bankers, could become a problem. Boivin worries that some policy makers will be too quick and aggressive in responding to inflation increases that monetary policy is ill-equipped to address.\nThat would risk needlessly destroying demand when what is wanted is bottlenecks to resolve themselves and supply to come back, said the former monetary policy maker. After all, tightening monetary policy would do little to unclog port or fix shortages of semiconductors that have snarled supply chains.\nTraders have pulled forward expectations for interest-rate increases and stoking fears that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will slam on the brakes more aggressively than previously expected, risking an economic downturn.\nHigh-profile investors, including hedge-fund titans Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn, have argued that Fed policy makers are inflation creators rather than inflation fighters. And Jack Dorsey, chief executive of Twitter Inc. (TWTR) and Square Inc. $(SQ)$ late Friday warned that \"hyperinflation\" was coming to the U.S. and global economy.\nMajor stock-market indexes have continued to power higher after stumbling in September as stagflation fears mounted. Investors have wrestled with how to trade inflation as the economy reopens, gauging the role of equities as an inflation hedge versus fears of a rerun of the stagflation scenario.\nEquities struggled to keep up with inflation between 1969 and 1982, noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, earlier this year, posting a compounded annual growth rate of negative 0.8% as the economy and the labor market were rocked by rising prices.\nThe S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended at records on Monday, with the S&P 500 up more than 21% so far in 2021 and the blue-chip gauge up nearly 17%.\nNot 'automatically' bad for equities\nSo how long will inflation pressures persist? Anyone making projections should do so with a large sense of humility given the largely unprecedented nature of the post-pandemic restart, Boivin prefaced, saying it would be reasonable to expect high inflation to persist through the first half and perhaps into the second half of 2022.\nIt's more important, he said, to recognize the \"nature\" of the current inflation rise than the time frame. Inflation is likely to remain well above target in 2022 and will remain above target, on average, over the next five years, Boivin said.\nFor investors, that's not a bond-friendly environment, he said, with the BlackRock Investment Institute favoring inflation-protected securities over nominal bonds. It's not an environment that's \"automatically\" bad for equities or other risk assets however, \"which leaves us net-net underweight government bonds but overweight global equities\" as investors see some inflation with a muted policy response.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165033779,"gmtCreate":1624079713891,"gmtModify":1624079713891,"author":{"id":"3518494347524531","authorId":"3518494347524531","name":"第八大奇迹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518494347524531","authorIdStr":"3518494347524531"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"才刚开始呢，调整能这么快好吗，现金为王吧，下半年，到时机会多的是。","listText":"才刚开始呢，调整能这么快好吗，现金为王吧，下半年，到时机会多的是。","text":"才刚开始呢，调整能这么快好吗，现金为王吧，下半年，到时机会多的是。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165033779","repostId":"1145549454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}