养猪致富678的个人主页 - 老虎社区

养猪致富678

养猪致富678

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IP属地：江苏

68关注

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2主题

0勋章

养猪致富678

2022-05-20

$微博(WB)$为什么一直高开低走？

养猪致富678

2022-04-25

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$想不出来为什么这个公司现在还值70亿美元

养猪致富678

2022-04-25

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$十亿美元市值差不多

养猪致富678

2022-04-25

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$这家公司跌到100亿人民币，十几亿美元市值差不多，没有核心盈利模式，骗小孩钱的公司

养猪致富678

2021-03-25

$老虎证券(TIGR)$我都看到5块钱了

养猪致富678

2021-03-23

怎么看

抱歉，原内容已删除

养猪致富678

2021-03-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$其实财报前三季度数据都有，只差最后三个月，大局就那样

养猪致富678

2021-03-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$现在的老虎是16年的富途，四年后达道现在富途的水平有没有可能

养猪致富678

2021-03-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$感觉用老虎软件的人挺多的，为什么财报营收不是很大

养猪致富678

2021-03-09

$蔚来(NIO)$不要心存侥幸，下跌过程的反弹，不改下跌趋势

养猪致富678

2021-03-09

$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来看跌

养猪致富678

2021-03-09

蔚来还要再跌不少

跌了这么多，特斯拉、蔚来们值得抄底了吗？

养猪致富678

2021-03-01

$老虎证券(TIGR)$是不是11块才能企稳

养猪致富678

2021-03-01

$老虎证券(TIGR)$行情不稳，已空仓

养猪致富678

2021-02-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$为什么挂单成交不了

养猪致富678

2021-02-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$为什么挂单成交不了

养猪致富678

2021-02-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$只要跌我就不停买

养猪致富678

2021-02-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$补仓了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>感觉用老虎软件的人挺多的，为什么财报营收不是很大","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$感觉用老虎软件的人挺多的，为什么财报营收不是很大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359739401","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3517539897903510","authorId":"3517539897903510","name":"养猪致富678","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a3b4f98b93b3860a814b586deea239","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3517539897903510","authorIdStr":"3517539897903510"},"content":"富途真的有那么多人用么？本来注册了个，感觉界面很乱，就卸载了，没在用富途","text":"富途真的有那么多人用么？本来注册了个，感觉界面很乱，就卸载了，没在用富途","html":"富途真的有那么多人用么？本来注册了个，感觉界面很乱，就卸载了，没在用富途"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323321624,"gmtCreate":1615304146568,"gmtModify":1703487126575,"author":{"id":"3517539897903510","authorId":"3517539897903510","name":"养猪致富678","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a3b4f98b93b3860a814b586deea239","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517539897903510","authorIdStr":"3517539897903510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来看跌","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来看跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323333230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323940466,"gmtCreate":1615300979355,"gmtModify":1703487006562,"author":{"id":"3517539897903510","authorId":"3517539897903510","name":"养猪致富678","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a3b4f98b93b3860a814b586deea239","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517539897903510","authorIdStr":"3517539897903510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"蔚来还要再跌不少","listText":"蔚来还要再跌不少","text":"蔚来还要再跌不少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323940466","repostId":"1132719146","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132719146","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615285452,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132719146?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 18:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"跌了这么多，特斯拉、蔚来们值得抄底了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132719146","media":"美港电讯","summary":"前言\n最近大盘一直在消化从取消限售到利率和通胀等许多宏观和财政方面的因素；在这种情况下，像过去一周表现出的日内大幅波动的情况在市场内部可能会持续一段时间。如果是这样的话，包括本文提到的电动车股在内的高","content":"<p><b>前言</b></p>\n<p>最近大盘一直在消化从取消限售到利率和通胀等许多宏观和财政方面的因素；在这种情况下，像过去一周表现出的日内大幅波动的情况在市场内部可能会持续一段时间。如果是这样的话，包括本文提到的电动车股在内的高景气电动车股的微妙估值可能会面临更大的下行压力，尤其是在某些供应方面的限制下。</p>\n<p><b>1)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></b></p>\n<p>过去几年，电动汽车的首选股票是特斯拉，在经历了具有里程碑意义的2020年之后，股价在2021年开始处于低迷状态。上周五凌晨，股票进入了年初至今的熊市区域，自1月下旬以来市值损失近三分之一。特斯拉的崛起推动新一轮的电动车应用浪潮，随着生产力的高速增长，特斯拉可以进一步巩固其在电动车金字塔顶端的地位和增长能力。</p>\n<p>虽然芯片短缺仍可能影响到汽车行业到21年上半年和下半年初，但特斯拉已经从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">淡水河谷</a>获得了镍的供应，这可以缓解电动车行业一直浮现的对电池芯短缺的担忧，相较于中国同行，在供应方面的打击可能会被削弱。</p>\n<p>那么为什么说特斯拉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>入呢？在过去6个月里，特斯拉的股价像过山车一样上下波动，成为其他电动汽车代工厂的风向标。然而，在内部发展出现积极迹象的情况下，最近的估值调整带来了更公平的预期市盈率。</p>\n<p>特斯拉仍然有望突破自己的隐含交付量，2023年约为170万辆，2025年约为400万辆，这取决于需求量。目前的最大产能刚刚超过100万辆，计划在奥斯汀和柏林建厂，在班加罗尔存在潜在的生产力（尽管这也适用于储能）。到2023年，特斯拉的产能可能会提升到200万辆，给交付量带来一定的缓冲。像在上海那样，建成后能够迅速扩大生产规模，巩固远期交付增长。到2023年，特斯拉在中国的全球市场份额可以达到近1.5%，在欧洲的市场份额可以达到1%以上。</p>\n<p>因此，在强劲的中国市场和占据2.5%的全球市场份额的推动下，特斯拉的收入到2022年可能会跃升至680亿美元，到2025年再次翻倍，达到1250亿美元。与一些较为成熟的欧洲市场不同，随着电动车的快速扩张，中国带来了巨大的市场机会，预计2021年将增长到180万辆。而且需求的增加和政府对电动车发展的支持可能会使电动车销量比预期更快地上升，到2022年超过300万辆。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0435437e7baee556269aae5033e9afe2\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"725\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>虽然这对特斯拉以及两家国内厂商来说都是积极的，但接下来要讨论的是，由于国产和进口车型的产能较高，国产车型所带来的价格竞争力可能是中国释放这2.5%全球份额的关键。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉营收在2022年将达到680亿美元计算，特斯拉股票估值约为2022年预期营收的8.8倍、2025年预期营收的4.6倍。电动皮卡Cybertruck和电动卡车Semi计划今年投产，明年交付，能够通过进入不同的细分市场来增加收入。特斯拉已经一次又一次地表明，市场对其汽车的需求的确存在。</p>\n<p>与传统的内燃机汽车制造商相比，特斯拉的估值倍数维持在高位。由于其颠覆性的能力和发展曲线“领先于”其他电动汽车，特斯拉的股价已经出现溢价。推动电动汽车销量下滑的主要市场因素可能会持续，如果特斯拉的股价再跌30%至400美元低点附近，特斯拉的估值倍数可能会下降到5.8倍（2022财年）和3.2倍（2025财年）。</p>\n<p>即使以目前的估值计算，特斯拉的估值倍数仍表明，该公司有望在未来数年内实现目标，但电动汽车和能源存储领域的长期前景仍然未能完全实现。</p>\n<p><b>2)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a></b></p>\n<p>蔚来汽车去年的表现相当出色。蔚来以强劲的交付数据巩固了自己在国内电动汽车市场的领先地位。</p>\n<p>尽管由于每股盈利受到轻微的汇率影响，蔚来汽车Q4业绩喜忧参半，而且芯片短缺将对交付产生影响，但该公司长期前景仍然完好。Q4业绩超过市场预期，不过其股价仍然下跌了两位数，上周五早盘更是一度下跌超过25%，随后才逐步反弹。现在，蔚来的估值进一步下跌，但是其光明的前景仍然存在。</p>\n<p>推荐买入的原因是，回顾之前的乐观预测，虽然蔚来汽车的短期业绩将受到芯片和电池限制的影响，预计第二季度的月产量将下降25%至7500辆，抑制第二季度的同比增长，不过，预计限制将在下半年得到缓解，使得蔚来每月产能回升9000至10000辆。这将推动蔚来下半年的交付量升至5.5万辆，预计全年交付量将达到9.5万辆至10.5万辆。</p>\n<p>消费者需求依然强劲，2月交付量录得5528辆是因为2月较短而且假期较多，影响了蔚来的表现，3月的交付预期是当前产量的上限。蔚来今年还有一个主要的推动力，那就是欧洲市场的扩张。销量增长应该会让蔚来的利润率保持在15%左右，蔚来有望在第四季度实现季度盈利，在上行情况下最早会在2022财年实现年度盈利。</p>\n<p>蔚来2021财年营收增长至330亿-345亿元人民币（合51-53亿美元）的预期仍未改变，BaaS和ADaaS服务有助于其汽车销量的增长。在2022财年，蔚来产能可以达到30万辆，而且由于供给侧电池和芯片限制的潜在影响变小，交付量应增至16万至19万辆，产生600-650亿元人民币（93-100亿美元）的收入。蔚来也在短短一年内极大地稳固了其财务表现，该公司现在看起来已经摆脱了四个季度前破产的恐惧和阴影，回到安全线上。</p>\n<p>不过，蔚来仍在经历电动汽车公司的估值危机，上周五盘初股价较1月初的年初高点下跌逾50%。两天以后，蔚来汽车的股价约为2021财年预期营收的11.5倍（低于此前的13.1倍）和2022财年预期营收的6.2倍（低于此前的7.2倍）。对于一个在2021财年有三位数增长潜力、在2022财年有高两位数增长潜力的公司来说，估值危机期间股价的多次下跌提供长线买入或降低平均成本的机会。</p>\n<p><b>蔚来汽车面临的风险包括：</b>管理层预期芯片短缺问题将在短短4个月后得到解决，以及国内细分市场带来的竞争日益加剧。尽管市场将对其认为的弱点做出反应，但蔚来汽车可能会受到芯片短缺的影响，影响到第二季度末/第三季度初的生产运行速度，这可能会使其超出交付预期的可能性变得微乎其微。目前蔚来在欧洲的扩张成本可能有点高，而蔚来汽车网络和服务中心的扩建成本可能会影响近期触及高点的利润率，从而抑制未来的盈利前景。</p>\n<p>价格竞争也是蔚来需要注意的风险因素，特别是在特斯拉降价后，威胁迫在眉睫。蔚来汽车不愿进入其他价格细分市场，而是专注于高端市场销售，这可能导致其无法抓住微型电动汽车领域的快速增长趋势，从而失去整体国内市场份额。</p>\n<p><b>3)小鹏汽车</b></p>\n<p>小鹏的股价表现是这三家公司中最差的，自2月份以来其股价下跌了40%以上，上周五美股早盘的股价仅为11月份历史高点的近三分之一。然而，与蔚来汽车的情况类似，阻碍目前销售曲线上升的因素将在第三季度前消除，估值的下降，再加上中国汽车集团在欧洲的先行者地位，都是长期的积极因素。</p>\n<p>为啥推荐买入？小鹏2月份的出货量环比下降60%至2223辆，芯片短缺是另一个较大的负面因素。即便如此，小鹏&nbsp;Q1的出货量应该能够达到12500辆，使其年度交付量有望达到强劲的57500辆，得益于强劲的季度因素，以及生产率也有望在下半年恢复正常(芯片短缺的影响逐渐减轻，较之此前的65000辆的预测仅仅出现了小幅度的下滑)。</p>\n<p>在肇庆产能扩张至每年10万辆、欧洲扩张和中国强劲需求的支持下，公司2021财年的收入预计将达到132亿元人民币(20.5亿美元)。在过去几周估值大幅下降的情况下，小鹏的市盈率是21财年收入的10.7倍，22财年收入的4.9倍，略低于蔚来，但这是意料之中的，因为累积的交付量存在差异。与蔚来汽车一样，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>也筹集了大量现金(去年12月至今年1月，近300亿元人民币)，提振了其业绩的增长。</p>\n<p>小鹏预计未来两年收入将实现三位数增长，原因在于其汽车的技术进步使得需求居高不下。在今年早些时候OTA升级后，小鹏汽车提供了L3自动驾驶功能，并在一季度的测试版中通过自动变道辅助功能(NGP)对自动驾驶提供了更多支持。对高水平技术的投入能够使得小鹏提高和其他竞争对手之间的区分度，有助于拉动交付量的提升。</p>\n<p>欧洲市场的扩张也是小鹏汽车的一个亮点，在欧洲市场上，小鹏领先蔚来汽车，首先向挪威出口了一小批G3。在挪威甚至在其他电动汽车市场成熟的国家的进一步扩张，将成为交付和略高价格销售的驱动因素，有助于增加收入。小鹏将在2023年通过扩张广州产能将向欧洲输送更多的车型，半年之内将以类似的速度交付1万辆。</p>\n<p><b>小鹏需要注意的一些风险因素</b>包括利润率，以及最近因逆变器问题召回部分G3车型。截至第三季度，小鹏汽车的利润率仅为个位数，而蔚来汽车的利润率则从第三季度的14%升至第四季度的17%左右。小鹏的利润率要小得多，这是因为公司对研发支出的高度重视——技术进步是要付出代价的——正因为如此，在未来四到八个季度，运营成本杠杆将被证明是困难的，小鹏要实现盈利还有很长的路要走。</p>\n<p>因逆变器问题导致断电并构成安全风险而召回的13339辆G3车型，可能是导致2月份交付疲弱的一个因素，但召回的另一个风险(如果发生其他风险的话)是解决这些问题相关的成本。虽然小鹏有足够的资金，但除了运营支出/研发支出外，可能会产生的额外成本将进一步挤压利润率。</p>\n<p><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>电动汽车股价在2020年下半年期间加速上升，并在2021年初急转直下。该行业的估值和价格都迅速上升，存在着泡沫的迹象。不管是否有收入支持，由于行业因素和宏观/财政因素，未来几周波动性和下行压力仍可能加剧，投资于龙头企业可能是更安全的选择。虽然这三家公司最近也出现了一些问题，但作为电动汽车行业的领军企业，特斯拉在收入和交付方面仍有巨大的潜力，同时也有支持业务；蔚来汽车在收入和交付量方面领先于国内初创企业，在多种催化剂的推动下，其前景光明；小鹏的产能扩张和快速的可扩展性预示着其在欧洲市场的扩张和国内市场份额的增长。这并不是说，其他电动汽车厂商在这一领域不如这几家公司那般好(Fisker和Canoo都是高潜力的好筹码)，而另一些人则喜欢QuantumScape 能够提供下一代突破性的技术，但随着电动汽车增长与估值之间的脱节日益加剧，以折扣价买入行业领头羊，能够在潜在的行业整合之前为投资者提供额外的安全保障。</p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>跌了这么多，特斯拉、蔚来们值得抄底了吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n跌了这么多，特斯拉、蔚来们值得抄底了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 18:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002424><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前言\n最近大盘一直在消化从取消限售到利率和通胀等许多宏观和财政方面的因素；在这种情况下，像过去一周表现出的日内大幅波动的情况在市场内部可能会持续一段时间。如果是这样的话，包括本文提到的电动车股在内的高景气电动车股的微妙估值可能会面临更大的下行压力，尤其是在某些供应方面的限制下。\n1)特斯拉\n过去几年，电动汽车的首选股票是特斯拉，在经历了具有里程碑意义的2020年之后，股价在2021年开始处于低迷...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002424\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470c7cb7483c270761f6679ffa0ee057","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002424","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132719146","content_text":"前言\n最近大盘一直在消化从取消限售到利率和通胀等许多宏观和财政方面的因素；在这种情况下，像过去一周表现出的日内大幅波动的情况在市场内部可能会持续一段时间。如果是这样的话，包括本文提到的电动车股在内的高景气电动车股的微妙估值可能会面临更大的下行压力，尤其是在某些供应方面的限制下。\n1)特斯拉\n过去几年，电动汽车的首选股票是特斯拉，在经历了具有里程碑意义的2020年之后，股价在2021年开始处于低迷状态。上周五凌晨，股票进入了年初至今的熊市区域，自1月下旬以来市值损失近三分之一。特斯拉的崛起推动新一轮的电动车应用浪潮，随着生产力的高速增长，特斯拉可以进一步巩固其在电动车金字塔顶端的地位和增长能力。\n虽然芯片短缺仍可能影响到汽车行业到21年上半年和下半年初，但特斯拉已经从淡水河谷获得了镍的供应，这可以缓解电动车行业一直浮现的对电池芯短缺的担忧，相较于中国同行，在供应方面的打击可能会被削弱。\n那么为什么说特斯拉值得买入呢？在过去6个月里，特斯拉的股价像过山车一样上下波动，成为其他电动汽车代工厂的风向标。然而，在内部发展出现积极迹象的情况下，最近的估值调整带来了更公平的预期市盈率。\n特斯拉仍然有望突破自己的隐含交付量，2023年约为170万辆，2025年约为400万辆，这取决于需求量。目前的最大产能刚刚超过100万辆，计划在奥斯汀和柏林建厂，在班加罗尔存在潜在的生产力（尽管这也适用于储能）。到2023年，特斯拉的产能可能会提升到200万辆，给交付量带来一定的缓冲。像在上海那样，建成后能够迅速扩大生产规模，巩固远期交付增长。到2023年，特斯拉在中国的全球市场份额可以达到近1.5%，在欧洲的市场份额可以达到1%以上。\n因此，在强劲的中国市场和占据2.5%的全球市场份额的推动下，特斯拉的收入到2022年可能会跃升至680亿美元，到2025年再次翻倍，达到1250亿美元。与一些较为成熟的欧洲市场不同，随着电动车的快速扩张，中国带来了巨大的市场机会，预计2021年将增长到180万辆。而且需求的增加和政府对电动车发展的支持可能会使电动车销量比预期更快地上升，到2022年超过300万辆。\n\n虽然这对特斯拉以及两家国内厂商来说都是积极的，但接下来要讨论的是，由于国产和进口车型的产能较高，国产车型所带来的价格竞争力可能是中国释放这2.5%全球份额的关键。\n以特斯拉营收在2022年将达到680亿美元计算，特斯拉股票估值约为2022年预期营收的8.8倍、2025年预期营收的4.6倍。电动皮卡Cybertruck和电动卡车Semi计划今年投产，明年交付，能够通过进入不同的细分市场来增加收入。特斯拉已经一次又一次地表明，市场对其汽车的需求的确存在。\n与传统的内燃机汽车制造商相比，特斯拉的估值倍数维持在高位。由于其颠覆性的能力和发展曲线“领先于”其他电动汽车，特斯拉的股价已经出现溢价。推动电动汽车销量下滑的主要市场因素可能会持续，如果特斯拉的股价再跌30%至400美元低点附近，特斯拉的估值倍数可能会下降到5.8倍（2022财年）和3.2倍（2025财年）。\n即使以目前的估值计算，特斯拉的估值倍数仍表明，该公司有望在未来数年内实现目标，但电动汽车和能源存储领域的长期前景仍然未能完全实现。\n2)蔚来\n蔚来汽车去年的表现相当出色。蔚来以强劲的交付数据巩固了自己在国内电动汽车市场的领先地位。\n尽管由于每股盈利受到轻微的汇率影响，蔚来汽车Q4业绩喜忧参半，而且芯片短缺将对交付产生影响，但该公司长期前景仍然完好。Q4业绩超过市场预期，不过其股价仍然下跌了两位数，上周五早盘更是一度下跌超过25%，随后才逐步反弹。现在，蔚来的估值进一步下跌，但是其光明的前景仍然存在。\n推荐买入的原因是，回顾之前的乐观预测，虽然蔚来汽车的短期业绩将受到芯片和电池限制的影响，预计第二季度的月产量将下降25%至7500辆，抑制第二季度的同比增长，不过，预计限制将在下半年得到缓解，使得蔚来每月产能回升9000至10000辆。这将推动蔚来下半年的交付量升至5.5万辆，预计全年交付量将达到9.5万辆至10.5万辆。\n消费者需求依然强劲，2月交付量录得5528辆是因为2月较短而且假期较多，影响了蔚来的表现，3月的交付预期是当前产量的上限。蔚来今年还有一个主要的推动力，那就是欧洲市场的扩张。销量增长应该会让蔚来的利润率保持在15%左右，蔚来有望在第四季度实现季度盈利，在上行情况下最早会在2022财年实现年度盈利。\n蔚来2021财年营收增长至330亿-345亿元人民币（合51-53亿美元）的预期仍未改变，BaaS和ADaaS服务有助于其汽车销量的增长。在2022财年，蔚来产能可以达到30万辆，而且由于供给侧电池和芯片限制的潜在影响变小，交付量应增至16万至19万辆，产生600-650亿元人民币（93-100亿美元）的收入。蔚来也在短短一年内极大地稳固了其财务表现，该公司现在看起来已经摆脱了四个季度前破产的恐惧和阴影，回到安全线上。\n不过，蔚来仍在经历电动汽车公司的估值危机，上周五盘初股价较1月初的年初高点下跌逾50%。两天以后，蔚来汽车的股价约为2021财年预期营收的11.5倍（低于此前的13.1倍）和2022财年预期营收的6.2倍（低于此前的7.2倍）。对于一个在2021财年有三位数增长潜力、在2022财年有高两位数增长潜力的公司来说，估值危机期间股价的多次下跌提供长线买入或降低平均成本的机会。\n蔚来汽车面临的风险包括：管理层预期芯片短缺问题将在短短4个月后得到解决，以及国内细分市场带来的竞争日益加剧。尽管市场将对其认为的弱点做出反应，但蔚来汽车可能会受到芯片短缺的影响，影响到第二季度末/第三季度初的生产运行速度，这可能会使其超出交付预期的可能性变得微乎其微。目前蔚来在欧洲的扩张成本可能有点高，而蔚来汽车网络和服务中心的扩建成本可能会影响近期触及高点的利润率，从而抑制未来的盈利前景。\n价格竞争也是蔚来需要注意的风险因素，特别是在特斯拉降价后，威胁迫在眉睫。蔚来汽车不愿进入其他价格细分市场，而是专注于高端市场销售，这可能导致其无法抓住微型电动汽车领域的快速增长趋势，从而失去整体国内市场份额。\n3)小鹏汽车\n小鹏的股价表现是这三家公司中最差的，自2月份以来其股价下跌了40%以上，上周五美股早盘的股价仅为11月份历史高点的近三分之一。然而，与蔚来汽车的情况类似，阻碍目前销售曲线上升的因素将在第三季度前消除，估值的下降，再加上中国汽车集团在欧洲的先行者地位，都是长期的积极因素。\n为啥推荐买入？小鹏2月份的出货量环比下降60%至2223辆，芯片短缺是另一个较大的负面因素。即便如此，小鹏 Q1的出货量应该能够达到12500辆，使其年度交付量有望达到强劲的57500辆，得益于强劲的季度因素，以及生产率也有望在下半年恢复正常(芯片短缺的影响逐渐减轻，较之此前的65000辆的预测仅仅出现了小幅度的下滑)。\n在肇庆产能扩张至每年10万辆、欧洲扩张和中国强劲需求的支持下，公司2021财年的收入预计将达到132亿元人民币(20.5亿美元)。在过去几周估值大幅下降的情况下，小鹏的市盈率是21财年收入的10.7倍，22财年收入的4.9倍，略低于蔚来，但这是意料之中的，因为累积的交付量存在差异。与蔚来汽车一样，小鹏汽车也筹集了大量现金(去年12月至今年1月，近300亿元人民币)，提振了其业绩的增长。\n小鹏预计未来两年收入将实现三位数增长，原因在于其汽车的技术进步使得需求居高不下。在今年早些时候OTA升级后，小鹏汽车提供了L3自动驾驶功能，并在一季度的测试版中通过自动变道辅助功能(NGP)对自动驾驶提供了更多支持。对高水平技术的投入能够使得小鹏提高和其他竞争对手之间的区分度，有助于拉动交付量的提升。\n欧洲市场的扩张也是小鹏汽车的一个亮点，在欧洲市场上，小鹏领先蔚来汽车，首先向挪威出口了一小批G3。在挪威甚至在其他电动汽车市场成熟的国家的进一步扩张，将成为交付和略高价格销售的驱动因素，有助于增加收入。小鹏将在2023年通过扩张广州产能将向欧洲输送更多的车型，半年之内将以类似的速度交付1万辆。\n小鹏需要注意的一些风险因素包括利润率，以及最近因逆变器问题召回部分G3车型。截至第三季度，小鹏汽车的利润率仅为个位数，而蔚来汽车的利润率则从第三季度的14%升至第四季度的17%左右。小鹏的利润率要小得多，这是因为公司对研发支出的高度重视——技术进步是要付出代价的——正因为如此，在未来四到八个季度，运营成本杠杆将被证明是困难的，小鹏要实现盈利还有很长的路要走。\n因逆变器问题导致断电并构成安全风险而召回的13339辆G3车型，可能是导致2月份交付疲弱的一个因素，但召回的另一个风险(如果发生其他风险的话)是解决这些问题相关的成本。虽然小鹏有足够的资金，但除了运营支出/研发支出外，可能会产生的额外成本将进一步挤压利润率。\n结论\n电动汽车股价在2020年下半年期间加速上升，并在2021年初急转直下。该行业的估值和价格都迅速上升，存在着泡沫的迹象。不管是否有收入支持，由于行业因素和宏观/财政因素，未来几周波动性和下行压力仍可能加剧，投资于龙头企业可能是更安全的选择。虽然这三家公司最近也出现了一些问题，但作为电动汽车行业的领军企业，特斯拉在收入和交付方面仍有巨大的潜力，同时也有支持业务；蔚来汽车在收入和交付量方面领先于国内初创企业，在多种催化剂的推动下，其前景光明；小鹏的产能扩张和快速的可扩展性预示着其在欧洲市场的扩张和国内市场份额的增长。这并不是说，其他电动汽车厂商在这一领域不如这几家公司那般好(Fisker和Canoo都是高潜力的好筹码)，而另一些人则喜欢QuantumScape 能够提供下一代突破性的技术，但随着电动汽车增长与估值之间的脱节日益加剧，以折扣价买入行业领头羊，能够在潜在的行业整合之前为投资者提供额外的安全保障。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362829966,"gmtCreate":1614613221055,"gmtModify":1703478943201,"author":{"id":"3517539897903510","authorId":"3517539897903510","name":"养猪致富678","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a3b4f98b93b3860a814b586deea239","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517539897903510","authorIdStr":"3517539897903510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>是不是11块才能企稳","listText":"<a 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