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2020-03-26

财报出来没有？

圈定池中鱼，稳坐钓鱼台 | 中手游内在价值分析

2020-02-13

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 美股昨晚3个多点，你不表示一下，好意思？

2020-02-11

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 无聊是盈利还是预期都完爆亚马逊，市盈率还是亚马逊的一半不到，买谁你们懂的

2020-02-11

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 什么情况？

2020-02-11

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 兄弟过分了，看看腾讯

2020-02-11

$阿里健康(00241)$ 还是你牛逼，甩平安好医生几条街

2020-02-11

$平安好医生(01833)$ 昨天涨得比阿里健康少，今天跌的比阿里健康多[流泪]

2020-01-31

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$ 可以建仓了，没有比现在更差到情况了吧？

2020-01-20

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$ 什么鬼，竟然跌这么多？

2019-12-11

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 终于雄起了

2019-10-29

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 腊鸡就是腊鸡

2019-10-28

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 还是被美团甩几条街

2019-10-21

$南方能源(01573)$ 又要妖一把了

2019-10-16

$德视佳(01846)$ 怎么跟爱尔眼科差那么远

2019-10-16

$德视佳(01846)$ 大家都是新股，为啥你这么弱

2019-10-16

$德视佳(01846)$ 看明天了，来一波吧

2019-09-17

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 腾讯也是回购，人家真枪实干，小米只是说说，根本没什么行动

2019-09-17

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 腊鸡就是腊鸡

2019-09-11

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 每次大盘大涨，小米都是没什么反应的

2019-09-10

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 雷布斯说，我已经准备好了120亿，随时买了，但是不告诉你什么时候买，少于120亿的不要做空，不然搞死你。。。

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16:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"圈定池中鱼，稳坐钓鱼台 | 中手游内在价值分析","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2022194131","media":"吴吞I","summary":"来源：雪球App，作者： 吴吞I，（https://xueqiu.com/4110138406/145129846）明天中手游就要发首份财报，对于游戏公司我略知一二，稍微做些马前炮的功课，供大家参考。","content":"<html><body><article><p>来源：雪球App，作者： 吴吞I，（https://xueqiu.com/4110138406/145129846）</p><p>明天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">中手游</a>就要发首份财报，对于游戏公司我略知一二，稍微做些马前炮的功课，供大家参考。</p><p>游戏产品发行就好像在汪洋中甩钩，起钩前，你不清楚这次钓到的是鲸鱼还是虾米。</p><p>这就是大多数游戏公司营收不稳定的原因，它们最大的期望就是爆款的诞生。</p><p>但是另有一类游戏公司，以IP为核心，围绕IP做游戏发行和战略布局，比如日本的光荣特库摩，美国的take-two和这里要说的中手游。粉丝基础大、变现能力强、生命周期长……这些都是她们所具备的优势。</p><p>如果说传统发行模式是在汪洋中撒钩，那这种模式就可谓是承包鱼塘做塘主了。IP之下，皆我池中之鱼，任凭风浪起，稳坐钓鱼台。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163027175d246gd2k2oumjm4\"/><p><strong>领先的IP游戏运营商</strong></p><p>中手游在所有中国独立手游发行商中拥有最大的IP储备。</p><p>据易观智库统计，2015年至2019年上半年，在中国所有独立手游发行商中，中手游IP游戏发行数量、累计收益、IP储备皆为第一：</p><p>IP游戏发行累计收益排名第一，份额约占13.7%；</p><p>IP游戏累积发行数量排名第一，份额约占9.3%；</p><p>拥有最大的IP储备，共99个IP储备（31项授权IP+68项自有IP），是其他前五大厂商储备总和的1.5倍。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163027728d246fxhvj64r8g9\"/><p>除了庞大的IP储备下，中手游还具备多源的IP获取能力：</p><p>（1）与IP版权方建立合作关系</p><p>中手游已与22名IP版权方建立合作关系，包括SNK、东 映动画、迪斯尼、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">阅文集团</a>及讲谈社等。此外，公司已就多项获得授权的 IP 取得在全球各地发行手游的权利。</p><p>（2）投资及收购优质IP版权方</p><p>公司直接投资于12 家手游开发公司。投资于拥有良好往绩及丰富潜力的游戏开发商，能够保证中手游就其开发的游戏享有优先选择权。中手游通过收购北京软星（曾开发过著名的“仙剑”系列、“大富翁” 系列）51%股权，取得了使用台湾大宇所拥有的所有 IP 的权利。</p><p>（3）合作基金，积极投资IP领域</p><p>中手游亦作为有限合伙人投资于国宏嘉信资本，投资于IP版权方、IP 培育平台及垂直平台，为公司提供优质IP来源。目前公司已就国宏嘉信资本投资公司的四项IP获得授权，例如“叛逆的鲁路修”。</p><p><strong>用户价值高，变现能力强，生命周期长</strong></p><p>据伽马数据发布的《2019-2020年移动游戏IP潜在价值评估报告》显示：IP游戏用户的月均收入和平均每月在移动游戏上的花费远高于非IP游戏用户。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163030008d246gk82rpc2daw\"/><p>IP游戏用户的价值明显高于非IP游戏用户。，这直接反应在了付费转化率上。据易观智库数据：2019年上半年，中手游的平均付费用户转化率为7.3%，远高于行业平均值。</p><p>此外中手游的付费用户量和用户付费水平还在不断提升。平均每月付费用户数（MPU）由2018年上半年60.4万增加至2019年上半年101.7万人。每名付费用户月平均收益（ARPPU）由 2016 年的 138 元提升至 2019 年上半年 250.6 元。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163031516d2467noilu16t1p\"/><p>此外，IP的粉丝群体稳定，这有利于延长产品的生命周期。</p><p>截至2019年6月30日，中手游共推出了 97 款手游，而如今公司仍有 73 款游戏仍然活跃及有 11 款游戏拥有超过三年的生命周期。据易观智库统计：往绩记录期间的游戏生命周期介乎一至四年，高于行业平均值。例如，“航海王强者之路”及“火影忍者-忍者大师”于推出后三年仍产生大量每月活跃用户及庞大收益。</p><p><strong>自研能力成长，产品发行能力积淀</strong></p><p>招股书显示，截至2019年6月30日，中手游研发部门全职雇员已达415人，占到公司总人数的54.2%。2019年上半年的研发总投入也达到了6626万元人民币，在研发投入上2019年上半年比去年同期增长5.7倍。</p><p>与同行相比亦可见一斑，2019年上半年中手游的研发费用率高达25.34%，处于行业领先水平，在19家行游戏业务公司中还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYOU\">畅游</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01119\">创梦天地</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603444\">吉比特</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300418\">昆仑万维</a>另4家公司的研发费用率均超过20%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163035006d246fsu47d7un26\"/><p>此外，随着持续积累、开拓以及与极大流量巨头的联合，中手游也产品发行方面已有了很多的积累：覆盖超过400余家海内外第三方分发渠道，包括国内外应用商店、第三方公开平台、手机制造商应用市场及社交平台。合作方庞大的用户基础有利于游戏触达广阔的用户面，增加游戏成功概率。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163036286d246fgilfntqtqa\"/><p>以与头条的合作为例，中手游多款游戏与头条达成独代合作。比如《光荣之路—SNK巅峰对决》和《航海王—热血航线》，对于这两款游戏，头条作为发行方还承诺了保底充值流水。</p><p><strong>营收稳定，不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里</strong></p><p>与一般游戏公司不同的是，中手游每年规划上线20，30款左右的新品，可以让成本曲线平滑可预判，周期风险性小。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163038500d24688qitju4ub4\"/><p>2017年后公司前五大游戏各自在手游业营收中的占比均低于20%，而15和16年最大游戏分别占46.3%和29.2%，这是一种出于主观的优化。主要游戏营收分布更加平均，公司对单一游戏的依赖度降低，业务抗风险能力也随之提升。</p><p>这样就不会再出现“身家性命系于一人“的情况。就好像我们分散持股一样，告别赌性，追求稳定复利。</p><p>得益于此战略，公司不仅营收持续增长，且利润水平稳定。毛利率稳定在 33%~35%左右。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163039960d246jcphmsa8esy\"/><p><strong>IP授权业务、海外业务可期</strong></p><p>2019年H1，游戏发行板块贡献13.07亿元，游戏开发板块实现营收2.18亿元，IP授权贡献营收360万。三大主营业务中，知识产权授权营收占比仅为0.24%，还有较大增长空间。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163040438d246gdz03rkqog2\"/><p>截至2019年6月30日，中手游共持有68个自有IP，其中还含仙剑奇侠传系列、轩辕剑系列、大富翁系列、明星志愿系列、天使帝国系列这五个知名IP系列。在未来有望通过授权、迭代IP产品、出售IP衍生品来提高收益。</p><p>据相关报道：去年10月《大富翁10》上线，连续2月排行STEAM平台国产单机第一；9月上线仙剑龙葵手办，摩点单渠道众筹收入近400万；未来陆续推出一系列的迭代游戏产品和衍生品，仙剑7今年夏天上线，配合仙剑诞生25周年。轩辕剑7今年上线。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200325163048605d246ofhvfpu3u7p\"/><p>除此之外，作为首批开拓海外市场的中国手游发行商之一，中手游的海外业务也值得期待。</p><p>公司现有《蜡烛人》、《曙光之境》、《超杀默示录》、《新仙剑奇侠传》这四款有在海外发行的手游。此外，还有《真三国无双》、《画江湖之杯莫停》等13款正在储备中，拟在海外发行的手游。伴随着这些游戏一一上线，海外业务有望丰富其收益及盈利的来源。</p><p>总结来说，无论是所谓的“承包鱼塘做塘主”还是“不把鸡蛋放在篮子里”我们都可以发现“稳定性”是贯穿中手游经营理念的主题。</p><p>但是稳定，不意味着没有惊喜，大爆款的出现依然会对业绩起到十分积极的作用，比如18年公司营收15.96亿元，而19年上半年公司营收就有15.29亿元，直逼18年全年。这主要是因为爆款《传奇世界之雷霆霸业》，一款最高月流水曾超过2亿元的游戏。</p><p>中手游即将公布四季报，不妨来期待一下这次有没有惊喜。据公司3月6日发布的正面盈利预计净利同比增长达到70%~85%，18年其经调整纯利为人民币3.4亿元，因此19年纯利应该在5.8亿-6.3亿人民币之间。</p><p>那么市场唯一担心的是，像《雷霆霸业》这样的爆款产品能持续多久，对于传奇类这种长生命周期手游产品的变现，在中手游长期业绩里的影响又有多大？这或许是影响短期中手游估值的关键。</p><p>不妨期待下中手游明天的业绩公告，或许一切疑问都能找到答案。值得一提的是，根据公开资料，中手游另一款传奇类产品《烈焰皇城》已经于3月20日上线，而另一款长生命周期的《轩辕剑：剑之源》也于本周开启测试。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">中手游</a></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n圈定池中鱼，稳坐钓鱼台 | 中手游内在价值分析\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-25 16:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003251630487a55a486&s=b><strong>吴吞I</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：雪球App，作者： 吴吞I，（https://xueqiu.com/4110138406/145129846）明天中手游就要发首份财报，对于游戏公司我略知一二，稍微做些马前炮的功课，供大家参考。游戏产品发行就好像在汪洋中甩钩，起钩前，你不清楚这次钓到的是鲸鱼还是虾米。这就是大多数游戏公司营收不稳定的原因，它们最大的期望就是爆款的诞生。但是另有一类游戏公司，以IP为核心，围绕IP做游戏发行和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003251630487a55a486&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcabf75ca25b5c2a5767c559e42702f8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003251630487a55a486&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2022194131","content_text":"来源：雪球App，作者： 吴吞I，（https://xueqiu.com/4110138406/145129846）明天中手游就要发首份财报，对于游戏公司我略知一二，稍微做些马前炮的功课，供大家参考。游戏产品发行就好像在汪洋中甩钩，起钩前，你不清楚这次钓到的是鲸鱼还是虾米。这就是大多数游戏公司营收不稳定的原因，它们最大的期望就是爆款的诞生。但是另有一类游戏公司，以IP为核心，围绕IP做游戏发行和战略布局，比如日本的光荣特库摩，美国的take-two和这里要说的中手游。粉丝基础大、变现能力强、生命周期长……这些都是她们所具备的优势。如果说传统发行模式是在汪洋中撒钩，那这种模式就可谓是承包鱼塘做塘主了。IP之下，皆我池中之鱼，任凭风浪起，稳坐钓鱼台。领先的IP游戏运营商中手游在所有中国独立手游发行商中拥有最大的IP储备。据易观智库统计，2015年至2019年上半年，在中国所有独立手游发行商中，中手游IP游戏发行数量、累计收益、IP储备皆为第一：IP游戏发行累计收益排名第一，份额约占13.7%；IP游戏累积发行数量排名第一，份额约占9.3%；拥有最大的IP储备，共99个IP储备（31项授权IP+68项自有IP），是其他前五大厂商储备总和的1.5倍。除了庞大的IP储备下，中手游还具备多源的IP获取能力：（1）与IP版权方建立合作关系中手游已与22名IP版权方建立合作关系，包括SNK、东 映动画、迪斯尼、阅文集团及讲谈社等。此外，公司已就多项获得授权的 IP 取得在全球各地发行手游的权利。（2）投资及收购优质IP版权方公司直接投资于12 家手游开发公司。投资于拥有良好往绩及丰富潜力的游戏开发商，能够保证中手游就其开发的游戏享有优先选择权。中手游通过收购北京软星（曾开发过著名的“仙剑”系列、“大富翁” 系列）51%股权，取得了使用台湾大宇所拥有的所有 IP 的权利。（3）合作基金，积极投资IP领域中手游亦作为有限合伙人投资于国宏嘉信资本，投资于IP版权方、IP 培育平台及垂直平台，为公司提供优质IP来源。目前公司已就国宏嘉信资本投资公司的四项IP获得授权，例如“叛逆的鲁路修”。用户价值高，变现能力强，生命周期长据伽马数据发布的《2019-2020年移动游戏IP潜在价值评估报告》显示：IP游戏用户的月均收入和平均每月在移动游戏上的花费远高于非IP游戏用户。IP游戏用户的价值明显高于非IP游戏用户。，这直接反应在了付费转化率上。据易观智库数据：2019年上半年，中手游的平均付费用户转化率为7.3%，远高于行业平均值。此外中手游的付费用户量和用户付费水平还在不断提升。平均每月付费用户数（MPU）由2018年上半年60.4万增加至2019年上半年101.7万人。每名付费用户月平均收益（ARPPU）由 2016 年的 138 元提升至 2019 年上半年 250.6 元。此外，IP的粉丝群体稳定，这有利于延长产品的生命周期。截至2019年6月30日，中手游共推出了 97 款手游，而如今公司仍有 73 款游戏仍然活跃及有 11 款游戏拥有超过三年的生命周期。据易观智库统计：往绩记录期间的游戏生命周期介乎一至四年，高于行业平均值。例如，“航海王强者之路”及“火影忍者-忍者大师”于推出后三年仍产生大量每月活跃用户及庞大收益。自研能力成长，产品发行能力积淀招股书显示，截至2019年6月30日，中手游研发部门全职雇员已达415人，占到公司总人数的54.2%。2019年上半年的研发总投入也达到了6626万元人民币，在研发投入上2019年上半年比去年同期增长5.7倍。与同行相比亦可见一斑，2019年上半年中手游的研发费用率高达25.34%，处于行业领先水平，在19家行游戏业务公司中还有畅游、创梦天地、吉比特以及昆仑万维另4家公司的研发费用率均超过20%。此外，随着持续积累、开拓以及与极大流量巨头的联合，中手游也产品发行方面已有了很多的积累：覆盖超过400余家海内外第三方分发渠道，包括国内外应用商店、第三方公开平台、手机制造商应用市场及社交平台。合作方庞大的用户基础有利于游戏触达广阔的用户面，增加游戏成功概率。以与头条的合作为例，中手游多款游戏与头条达成独代合作。比如《光荣之路—SNK巅峰对决》和《航海王—热血航线》，对于这两款游戏，头条作为发行方还承诺了保底充值流水。营收稳定，不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里与一般游戏公司不同的是，中手游每年规划上线20，30款左右的新品，可以让成本曲线平滑可预判，周期风险性小。2017年后公司前五大游戏各自在手游业营收中的占比均低于20%，而15和16年最大游戏分别占46.3%和29.2%，这是一种出于主观的优化。主要游戏营收分布更加平均，公司对单一游戏的依赖度降低，业务抗风险能力也随之提升。这样就不会再出现“身家性命系于一人“的情况。就好像我们分散持股一样，告别赌性，追求稳定复利。得益于此战略，公司不仅营收持续增长，且利润水平稳定。毛利率稳定在 33%~35%左右。IP授权业务、海外业务可期2019年H1，游戏发行板块贡献13.07亿元，游戏开发板块实现营收2.18亿元，IP授权贡献营收360万。三大主营业务中，知识产权授权营收占比仅为0.24%，还有较大增长空间。截至2019年6月30日，中手游共持有68个自有IP，其中还含仙剑奇侠传系列、轩辕剑系列、大富翁系列、明星志愿系列、天使帝国系列这五个知名IP系列。在未来有望通过授权、迭代IP产品、出售IP衍生品来提高收益。据相关报道：去年10月《大富翁10》上线，连续2月排行STEAM平台国产单机第一；9月上线仙剑龙葵手办，摩点单渠道众筹收入近400万；未来陆续推出一系列的迭代游戏产品和衍生品，仙剑7今年夏天上线，配合仙剑诞生25周年。轩辕剑7今年上线。除此之外，作为首批开拓海外市场的中国手游发行商之一，中手游的海外业务也值得期待。公司现有《蜡烛人》、《曙光之境》、《超杀默示录》、《新仙剑奇侠传》这四款有在海外发行的手游。此外，还有《真三国无双》、《画江湖之杯莫停》等13款正在储备中，拟在海外发行的手游。伴随着这些游戏一一上线，海外业务有望丰富其收益及盈利的来源。总结来说，无论是所谓的“承包鱼塘做塘主”还是“不把鸡蛋放在篮子里”我们都可以发现“稳定性”是贯穿中手游经营理念的主题。但是稳定，不意味着没有惊喜，大爆款的出现依然会对业绩起到十分积极的作用，比如18年公司营收15.96亿元，而19年上半年公司营收就有15.29亿元，直逼18年全年。这主要是因为爆款《传奇世界之雷霆霸业》，一款最高月流水曾超过2亿元的游戏。中手游即将公布四季报，不妨来期待一下这次有没有惊喜。据公司3月6日发布的正面盈利预计净利同比增长达到70%~85%，18年其经调整纯利为人民币3.4亿元，因此19年纯利应该在5.8亿-6.3亿人民币之间。那么市场唯一担心的是，像《雷霆霸业》这样的爆款产品能持续多久，对于传奇类这种长生命周期手游产品的变现，在中手游长期业绩里的影响又有多大？这或许是影响短期中手游估值的关键。不妨期待下中手游明天的业绩公告，或许一切疑问都能找到答案。值得一提的是，根据公开资料，中手游另一款传奇类产品《烈焰皇城》已经于3月20日上线，而另一款长生命周期的《轩辕剑：剑之源》也于本周开启测试。中手游","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917990953,"gmtCreate":1581562798972,"gmtModify":1704344548552,"author":{"id":"3516243206708743","authorId":"3516243206708743","name":"rcrdavidzhu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516243206708743","authorIdStr":"3516243206708743"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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