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2022-04-20

买的多就能送就是运力问题啊，又不是物资紧缺

“上海团长”调查：是救民于匮乏，还是“趁疫发财”？

2021-05-10

**蹭热点

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-06

中国还不是一样，谷歌能用吗，paypal能用吗，whatsapp能用吗

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-06-30

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 怎么还那么坚挺

2020-06-17

万恶的资本就是太贪婪

关于“腾讯拟成为爱奇艺最大股东”的6点看法

2020-06-04

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 怎么就跌不下去么

2020-06-02

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 国内汽油终于可以涨价了，快憋坏了这帮龟孙

2020-05-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$吗呀，这货还能涨

2020-05-27

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 都涨这么多了

2020-04-22

$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$直本50去了

2020-04-13

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$直奔100的节奏

2020-03-12

$道琼斯(.DJI)$历史总是惊人的相似，十年一轮回的金融危机又开始了。跌才刚开始呢

2019-06-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 赶紧做空，记住5元以上都是高位

2019-06-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 就是因为你们小散都不开空所以才跌下来了，快开空啊，让庄家来爆你们，让我回回本啊

2019-06-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 老子20美金买的，这辈子都解不了套了

2019-05-18

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 为什么不退市

2019-04-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 有小散接货就会下来，你们都不接，他就继续拉，拉到你们心养接货哈哈哈

2019-04-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 过了今晚一地鸡毛

2019-04-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 马上涨破100

2019-04-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$我自己被强制平仓了，你可以跌了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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16:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“上海团长”调查：是救民于匮乏，还是“趁疫发财”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151459987","media":"半月谈","summary":"2022年的这个春天，“上海团长”火出了圈。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>记者：何欣荣/郭慕清/王默玲/程思琪/严赋憬/朱翃</p><p>2022年的这个春天，“上海团长”火出了圈。</p><p>“我的团长我的团”“小区里最受尊敬的人”“饿了别叫妈，找‘团长’来帮忙！”……4月初，上海实行全域静态管理以来，常规的市场供应体系骤然停摆。奔波在大小社区里的，除了基层工作者、志愿者们，还有拯救居民于匮乏之中的“团长”。他们发起民间互助性质的社区团购，大大缓解了居民对基本生活保供的焦虑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79787ebb346c5114a352c21887aa80a2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4月9日早上5：34，上海徐汇某小区门口一批团购物资到货</p><p>与此同时，从上海市场监管部门的处罚情况和社交网络上的吐槽情况看，遍地开花的社区团购也滋生了一些乱象，“价格欺诈”“缺斤少两”，尤其是部分发“疫情财”的“野生团长”，更是消耗了居民们本就脆弱的信任感和安全感。</p><p>集赞誉和质疑于一体，游走在公益和商业之间，基于自发组织又接受备案规范，“上海团长”们的冲锋陷阵，是这个2500万人口超大城市抗疫的一个缩影，也成为特殊时期检验基层社区自治能力的一块“试金石”。</p><p><b>“团长”画像：从“推己及人”开始</b></p><p>“千万不要把我写成‘无私奉献、品德高尚’，因为做这一切，一开始也是为了自己。”租住在上海徐汇区某小区的90后钱大暖，本职工作是一家新媒体公司的高管。从4月初开始，钱大暖成为这个小区的团长，服务这里的108户近200个居民。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b22ed142f5d960877b9760f2d79e07c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>钱大暖发的朋友圈</p><p>“从3月下旬开始，我就发现网上买菜没那么简单了，到了4月4日的时候，连我这个‘互联网选手’都感觉，菜不好抢了。那个时候，我牛奶喝光了，居民群里也有人说想喝牛奶，既然大家有共性需求，于是我就做了第一次团购。” 钱大暖说。</p><p>“无心为之”“推己及人”“就像一头母狮子，一开始是给自己的崽子找吃的” ……和半月谈记者对话的10多位团长，有律师、保险代理人、新媒体从业者、企业财务总监甚至外资公司的CEO，各种机缘巧合让没有团购经验的他们干起了现在的“团长”。</p><p>“我自己做团长，也认识很多团长。在我看来，这些团长一般有正经工作、有一定职位，不然就不容易获取靠谱的资源和渠道。另外，这些人要有耐心和热心，因为做这个事很费神。”家在上海浦东新区联洋社区某小区的朱敏，本职工作是知识产权律师。她当“团长”，主要是因为认识能直接从中粮拿货的朋友，产品质量有保证。</p><p>比宜德连锁折扣超市首席执行官贾宏斌，是“上海团长”中比较特殊的一位。他说，最开始做“团长”，是因为有邻居知道他的工作背景，希望他在特殊时期站出来，帮助社区解决基本供应问题。</p><p>“我们在上海的松江、普陀都有货物大仓，货源比较充足，再加上我们的定位是折扣超市，也能让居民买到相对物美价廉的商品。”贾宏斌说。</p><p>贾宏斌粗略统计，从4月2日至4月15日，他所组织协调的10场团购，累计金额达20万元左右。“第一次开团，运了满满一卡车。半夜运到时，很多人都休息了，但是货物不能放在那里，特别是新鲜的蔬果容易坏掉。我、货车司机和志愿者一起，肩扛手提地搬运卸货。” 回忆这段经历，贾宏斌说：“比做CEO辛苦多了。”</p><p><b>“开团”流程：不亚于一次小型创业</b></p><p>“群内了解居民需求-寻找靠谱渠道-将产品介绍发在群里-建立新的团购群-告知截单时间-群接龙”——钱大暖所在的一个“团长群”里，有来自不同小区的“团长”时常在这里交流商品渠道、工作方法。群公告里，有人还编写了一套新手怎么开团的指南。</p><p>为做好“团长”这个活儿，钱大暖专门制作了一个团购表格，这是她一直以来的职业习惯。她将团购当成一个项目来推进，用SOP（标准操作程序）将项目拆分成一个个小步骤，精确到每个环节、每个人应该做什么。这个表格后来在网络上火了，连安徽的父母也看到了。“我爸妈一直不太理解我从事的新媒体工作，最近特以我为荣。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c530536ae85416a197f4e36f1bd5c56a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>钱大暖制作的团购表格</p><p>钱大暖说，日常工作受疫情影响，只剩下每周开一次周会，剩下的大部分时间都用在团购上。“我加了20来个供货群，一边跟供应商沟通，一边在线跟进已团商品的进度，一边还要用表格登记社区门牌号和采购数量……感觉像一个人打了3份工。”</p><p>为提高效率，对于询问比较多的问题，钱大暖编写了标准化的答复话术，收藏在微信中，“需要的时候就直接丢出去”。团购成功后，还要扮演客服角色，在群里及时更新物流信息，让大家安心，比如发个图，说“我们的菜上高速了”。</p><p>自认比较胆小的朱敏，觉得做“团长”其实是一件有风险的事情。为尽量规避风险，她总结了一套遴选供货商的方法。“保供企业证明、车辆通行证、司机核酸检测报告，这些都是必看的。另外还要在地图软件上看看，供货商周边疫情严不严重，问问工厂是不是闭环管理。如果其他小区找这家供应商团过，有产品实图就更好了。”朱敏说。</p><p>在中欧国际工商学院管理学教授赵浩看来，很多“团长”身上有着创业者的特质。“他们要敏锐地捕捉到社区居民的需求，填补供应链缺失的关键一环。还要不断‘面试’得到可靠、优质的供应商和运输商，同时对接小区的物业。最后，还可能因为货物迟送、错送或者用户不满意，出来道歉甚至赔钱。”</p><p>朱敏就有这样的经历。第一次团面包，就发生了货不对板的事情。“尽管产品还是蛮新鲜的，但毕竟和原图不符，不少居民提出质疑。有些人比较宽容，说算了，一样能吃；有些人坚持要退货。经过与供货商反复沟通，最后对方答应退一半的钱，总算平息了下去。”</p><p>在上海杨浦区中原路某小区当“团长”的舒莹，也经历过类似的意外事件。“有一次组织大家团牛奶，商家明确3天内到货，我甚至留了点余地，只告诉大家第三天到货，如果早到了就是运气好。可到了第三天，商家直接甩来一条消息，告诉我道路管控，货暂时进不来。”</p><p>舒莹承认，当时她非常慌张，于是在群里提出两个解决办法，一个是补差价买进口奶，一个是继续等待。好在所有人都选择了等待，并且安抚舒莹，“那一刻真的很感动”。</p><p>经历这些意外，舒莹觉得“团长”不仅需要热心，更需要统筹能力，一心想照顾每个人的需求很容易“上头”。“当大家众口难调时，我们必须选择最优解。比如牛奶，有人喜欢喝鲜奶，可当前物资运输难，鲜奶不易储存，选择利乐包装牛奶就是为了确保大家先有奶喝，然后才能慢慢喝到更好的。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07c72cd0e09027247b425a5f1f7d0db3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>杨浦区某小区团购群里的互动</p><p><b>可“营利”，不要“暴利”</b></p><p>社区团购其实不是新鲜事，过去曾是一门生意。尽管在疫情的特殊时刻，多数“团长”都是非职业化的，同时是基于公益服务的目的，但仍然不可避免地伴随着“营利”甚至“暴利”的争议。</p><p>家住上海闵行某小区的奚小姐就发现过“团长”私自吃回扣的行为。“一份12只装的芭比肉包，‘团长’发布的团购价是50元。但有小区居民从供货方处了解到真实的价格只需25元，经‘团长’过下手价格就翻倍。”有居民将“团长”私自涨价的情况在群内揭发，随后发现自己被“团长”移出群聊，该群也全部解散。奚小姐后来发现，这位团长并非小区居民，而且从小区外故意混入群内的“野生团长”。</p><p>针对此现象，上海市场监管部门近期也加强了监管力度。根据已披露的案例，有一对夫妇，系餐饮行业经营者。借疫情封控之机，用修图软件修改一家保供超市的套餐介绍图文，并将原套餐的中100元、160元、158元、108元的4档套餐价格更改为180元、280元、198元、148元，再以社区“团长”的名义向保供超市订购，低价买入高价卖出从中获利。</p><p>舒莹也被人质疑过从团购中牟利，几番解释无果后，她感到很委屈。“只能说我问心无愧，为了公开透明，我都会把价格、资质截图发到群里，公开信息，还好有不少人替我说话，让我感到宽慰。”</p><p>当社区“团长”、做公益服务，是不是一分钱都不能赚？对此，法律从业背景的朱敏有自己的见解。</p><p>“我认为，即使是公益服务，也可以用市场化的方式运作。即服务提供者不以营利为目的，但应该覆盖自己的成本，一味贴钱去做，其实是不可持续的。”朱敏说。</p><p>朱敏坦承，她现在做的一项蔬菜团购服务，供货方是上海金山区一家农业合作社。“早上收割，下午送来，一包5斤重的新鲜绿叶菜，售价是65元。尽管是比平时贵，但考虑到现在的物流和成本，大多数人还是能接受。”</p><p>根据订购的数量，每份蔬菜包，朱敏大概能从供货方那边收到3到5元的补贴。朱敏所在的小区有500多户家庭，每次的订购量约五六十份，这样团购一次她大概有近200元的收入。</p><p>“作为团长，我必须亲自去接货，然后和社区志愿者一起送货。每次赚的钱，我用来买防护服，一套至少要60元。我父亲、老公有时候也帮忙送货，这样就要三套防护服。” 朱敏说。</p><p>在朱敏看来，“营利”争议的核心在于小区的团购是否被人独家垄断了。“其实当‘团长’也是有一定竞争的。我们小区就有四五个蔬菜团，我做的这个主打新鲜，群里称呼为我‘菜团长’，在小区也有些名气，这点我还是挺有成就感的。”</p><p><b>重新理解“远亲不如近邻”</b></p><p>在政府的免费物资发放和“团长”们的努力下，目前上海基层社区的生活物资供应保障逐步好转。“从第一批的蔬菜、大米牛奶鸡蛋，再到现在的鸡腿鸡翅和粑粑柑，供应越来越丰富。”在浦东新区金桥镇某小区当“团长”的柳丽丽说。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7683d5d024a05de52f4d6b48c835be\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>夜晚，团购物资到了上海徐汇某小区居民楼大厅，志愿者们正在做“家门口最后100米”的配送</p><p>上海，是一座拥有2500万人口的超大城市。高度的流动性和多元化的人口结构，使得很多人都不太认识自己的邻居。这场疫情，让不少平日“潜水”的社区“能人”“热心人”浮出水面，带领大伙“四处觅食”。这种邻里间的互助关爱，让很多人重新理解了“远亲不如近邻”的含义。</p><p>柳丽丽发现，团购群其实也是一个邻里互助群。“谁家缺了葱蒜、纸巾、油盐，群里说一声，大家都会帮衬一把。”</p><p>在上海徐汇某小区做“团长”的倪倚天有一天收到一条特别的入群申请：“我来自日本，现在一个人在上海工作，上海的情况每天在日本的电视台上报道，我的家人非常关心我。希望您能让我的妻子加入这个微信群，因为我想向她展示一下这个社区的管理情况和我被友好邻居包围的生活，让家人放心，谢谢！”</p><p>“上海之所以是上海，不只是梧桐树下的浪漫、咖啡厅和小酒馆里的情调。这些都是表象，真正值得尊敬的是维系这些世俗生活背后的市民力量，是普通上海人愿意挺身而出为邻里做事的担当。”倪倚天说。</p><p>社区团购这种居民自发组织的行为，与监管部门、基层组织和物业公司如何有效互动、磨合，也需要一个探索的过程。近期，上海市场监管部门、上海市人民检察院先后发布《关于规范疫情防控期间“社区团购”价格行为的提示函》和相关法律责任手册，提醒“团长”们注意“避坑”“避雷”。上海的很多小区居委会、物业公司也要求社区团购实行备案管理，避免这种行为的无序生长。</p><p>“因为团购来的商品都要经过物业消杀，有的封控楼宇还需要物业或志愿者送货，所以这个备案管理还是必须的。有一次我们小区的居民想要团购咖啡，物业公司就提醒，咖啡消杀起来比较麻烦，也不是必需商品，特殊时期还是算了吧，最后大家也能理解。”朱敏说。</p><p>钱大暖也认为，病毒面前，大家都是一根绳上的蚂蚱，不分贫富也不分地域。“这轮疫情中固然有许多不和谐的声音出现，但想要战胜疫情，恐怕每个人都要意识到，自我小一点、格局大一点，清零的那一天才会近一点。”</p><p>经历这轮疫情，钱大暖发现这个老小区的多数居民很懂得感恩别人的付出，包容度也很高。“本来我是准备搬走的，现在反而想在这里安家。”</p><p>疫情终将过去，“团长”终将“卸任”。这段共患难的日子，或将为上海这个以情调著称的城市，注入新的更加坚韧的内涵。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1583400238089","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“上海团长”调查：是救民于匮乏，还是“趁疫发财”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“上海团长”调查：是救民于匮乏，还是“趁疫发财”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 16:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QE0xVfWe1zTfVQbLkRacoQ><strong>半月谈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>记者：何欣荣/郭慕清/王默玲/程思琪/严赋憬/朱翃2022年的这个春天，“上海团长”火出了圈。“我的团长我的团”“小区里最受尊敬的人”“饿了别叫妈，找‘团长’来帮忙！”……4月初，上海实行全域静态管理以来，常规的市场供应体系骤然停摆。奔波在大小社区里的，除了基层工作者、志愿者们，还有拯救居民于匮乏之中的“团长”。他们发起民间互助性质的社区团购，大大缓解了居民对基本生活保供的焦虑。4月9日早上5：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QE0xVfWe1zTfVQbLkRacoQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e34453a1abbc5a18a6c562675e38e5c3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QE0xVfWe1zTfVQbLkRacoQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151459987","content_text":"记者：何欣荣/郭慕清/王默玲/程思琪/严赋憬/朱翃2022年的这个春天，“上海团长”火出了圈。“我的团长我的团”“小区里最受尊敬的人”“饿了别叫妈，找‘团长’来帮忙！”……4月初，上海实行全域静态管理以来，常规的市场供应体系骤然停摆。奔波在大小社区里的，除了基层工作者、志愿者们，还有拯救居民于匮乏之中的“团长”。他们发起民间互助性质的社区团购，大大缓解了居民对基本生活保供的焦虑。4月9日早上5：34，上海徐汇某小区门口一批团购物资到货与此同时，从上海市场监管部门的处罚情况和社交网络上的吐槽情况看，遍地开花的社区团购也滋生了一些乱象，“价格欺诈”“缺斤少两”，尤其是部分发“疫情财”的“野生团长”，更是消耗了居民们本就脆弱的信任感和安全感。集赞誉和质疑于一体，游走在公益和商业之间，基于自发组织又接受备案规范，“上海团长”们的冲锋陷阵，是这个2500万人口超大城市抗疫的一个缩影，也成为特殊时期检验基层社区自治能力的一块“试金石”。“团长”画像：从“推己及人”开始“千万不要把我写成‘无私奉献、品德高尚’，因为做这一切，一开始也是为了自己。”租住在上海徐汇区某小区的90后钱大暖，本职工作是一家新媒体公司的高管。从4月初开始，钱大暖成为这个小区的团长，服务这里的108户近200个居民。钱大暖发的朋友圈“从3月下旬开始，我就发现网上买菜没那么简单了，到了4月4日的时候，连我这个‘互联网选手’都感觉，菜不好抢了。那个时候，我牛奶喝光了，居民群里也有人说想喝牛奶，既然大家有共性需求，于是我就做了第一次团购。” 钱大暖说。“无心为之”“推己及人”“就像一头母狮子，一开始是给自己的崽子找吃的” ……和半月谈记者对话的10多位团长，有律师、保险代理人、新媒体从业者、企业财务总监甚至外资公司的CEO，各种机缘巧合让没有团购经验的他们干起了现在的“团长”。“我自己做团长，也认识很多团长。在我看来，这些团长一般有正经工作、有一定职位，不然就不容易获取靠谱的资源和渠道。另外，这些人要有耐心和热心，因为做这个事很费神。”家在上海浦东新区联洋社区某小区的朱敏，本职工作是知识产权律师。她当“团长”，主要是因为认识能直接从中粮拿货的朋友，产品质量有保证。比宜德连锁折扣超市首席执行官贾宏斌，是“上海团长”中比较特殊的一位。他说，最开始做“团长”，是因为有邻居知道他的工作背景，希望他在特殊时期站出来，帮助社区解决基本供应问题。“我们在上海的松江、普陀都有货物大仓，货源比较充足，再加上我们的定位是折扣超市，也能让居民买到相对物美价廉的商品。”贾宏斌说。贾宏斌粗略统计，从4月2日至4月15日，他所组织协调的10场团购，累计金额达20万元左右。“第一次开团，运了满满一卡车。半夜运到时，很多人都休息了，但是货物不能放在那里，特别是新鲜的蔬果容易坏掉。我、货车司机和志愿者一起，肩扛手提地搬运卸货。” 回忆这段经历，贾宏斌说：“比做CEO辛苦多了。”“开团”流程：不亚于一次小型创业“群内了解居民需求-寻找靠谱渠道-将产品介绍发在群里-建立新的团购群-告知截单时间-群接龙”——钱大暖所在的一个“团长群”里，有来自不同小区的“团长”时常在这里交流商品渠道、工作方法。群公告里，有人还编写了一套新手怎么开团的指南。为做好“团长”这个活儿，钱大暖专门制作了一个团购表格，这是她一直以来的职业习惯。她将团购当成一个项目来推进，用SOP（标准操作程序）将项目拆分成一个个小步骤，精确到每个环节、每个人应该做什么。这个表格后来在网络上火了，连安徽的父母也看到了。“我爸妈一直不太理解我从事的新媒体工作，最近特以我为荣。”钱大暖制作的团购表格钱大暖说，日常工作受疫情影响，只剩下每周开一次周会，剩下的大部分时间都用在团购上。“我加了20来个供货群，一边跟供应商沟通，一边在线跟进已团商品的进度，一边还要用表格登记社区门牌号和采购数量……感觉像一个人打了3份工。”为提高效率，对于询问比较多的问题，钱大暖编写了标准化的答复话术，收藏在微信中，“需要的时候就直接丢出去”。团购成功后，还要扮演客服角色，在群里及时更新物流信息，让大家安心，比如发个图，说“我们的菜上高速了”。自认比较胆小的朱敏，觉得做“团长”其实是一件有风险的事情。为尽量规避风险，她总结了一套遴选供货商的方法。“保供企业证明、车辆通行证、司机核酸检测报告，这些都是必看的。另外还要在地图软件上看看，供货商周边疫情严不严重，问问工厂是不是闭环管理。如果其他小区找这家供应商团过，有产品实图就更好了。”朱敏说。在中欧国际工商学院管理学教授赵浩看来，很多“团长”身上有着创业者的特质。“他们要敏锐地捕捉到社区居民的需求，填补供应链缺失的关键一环。还要不断‘面试’得到可靠、优质的供应商和运输商，同时对接小区的物业。最后，还可能因为货物迟送、错送或者用户不满意，出来道歉甚至赔钱。”朱敏就有这样的经历。第一次团面包，就发生了货不对板的事情。“尽管产品还是蛮新鲜的，但毕竟和原图不符，不少居民提出质疑。有些人比较宽容，说算了，一样能吃；有些人坚持要退货。经过与供货商反复沟通，最后对方答应退一半的钱，总算平息了下去。”在上海杨浦区中原路某小区当“团长”的舒莹，也经历过类似的意外事件。“有一次组织大家团牛奶，商家明确3天内到货，我甚至留了点余地，只告诉大家第三天到货，如果早到了就是运气好。可到了第三天，商家直接甩来一条消息，告诉我道路管控，货暂时进不来。”舒莹承认，当时她非常慌张，于是在群里提出两个解决办法，一个是补差价买进口奶，一个是继续等待。好在所有人都选择了等待，并且安抚舒莹，“那一刻真的很感动”。经历这些意外，舒莹觉得“团长”不仅需要热心，更需要统筹能力，一心想照顾每个人的需求很容易“上头”。“当大家众口难调时，我们必须选择最优解。比如牛奶，有人喜欢喝鲜奶，可当前物资运输难，鲜奶不易储存，选择利乐包装牛奶就是为了确保大家先有奶喝，然后才能慢慢喝到更好的。”杨浦区某小区团购群里的互动可“营利”，不要“暴利”社区团购其实不是新鲜事，过去曾是一门生意。尽管在疫情的特殊时刻，多数“团长”都是非职业化的，同时是基于公益服务的目的，但仍然不可避免地伴随着“营利”甚至“暴利”的争议。家住上海闵行某小区的奚小姐就发现过“团长”私自吃回扣的行为。“一份12只装的芭比肉包，‘团长’发布的团购价是50元。但有小区居民从供货方处了解到真实的价格只需25元，经‘团长’过下手价格就翻倍。”有居民将“团长”私自涨价的情况在群内揭发，随后发现自己被“团长”移出群聊，该群也全部解散。奚小姐后来发现，这位团长并非小区居民，而且从小区外故意混入群内的“野生团长”。针对此现象，上海市场监管部门近期也加强了监管力度。根据已披露的案例，有一对夫妇，系餐饮行业经营者。借疫情封控之机，用修图软件修改一家保供超市的套餐介绍图文，并将原套餐的中100元、160元、158元、108元的4档套餐价格更改为180元、280元、198元、148元，再以社区“团长”的名义向保供超市订购，低价买入高价卖出从中获利。舒莹也被人质疑过从团购中牟利，几番解释无果后，她感到很委屈。“只能说我问心无愧，为了公开透明，我都会把价格、资质截图发到群里，公开信息，还好有不少人替我说话，让我感到宽慰。”当社区“团长”、做公益服务，是不是一分钱都不能赚？对此，法律从业背景的朱敏有自己的见解。“我认为，即使是公益服务，也可以用市场化的方式运作。即服务提供者不以营利为目的，但应该覆盖自己的成本，一味贴钱去做，其实是不可持续的。”朱敏说。朱敏坦承，她现在做的一项蔬菜团购服务，供货方是上海金山区一家农业合作社。“早上收割，下午送来，一包5斤重的新鲜绿叶菜，售价是65元。尽管是比平时贵，但考虑到现在的物流和成本，大多数人还是能接受。”根据订购的数量，每份蔬菜包，朱敏大概能从供货方那边收到3到5元的补贴。朱敏所在的小区有500多户家庭，每次的订购量约五六十份，这样团购一次她大概有近200元的收入。“作为团长，我必须亲自去接货，然后和社区志愿者一起送货。每次赚的钱，我用来买防护服，一套至少要60元。我父亲、老公有时候也帮忙送货，这样就要三套防护服。” 朱敏说。在朱敏看来，“营利”争议的核心在于小区的团购是否被人独家垄断了。“其实当‘团长’也是有一定竞争的。我们小区就有四五个蔬菜团，我做的这个主打新鲜，群里称呼为我‘菜团长’，在小区也有些名气，这点我还是挺有成就感的。”重新理解“远亲不如近邻”在政府的免费物资发放和“团长”们的努力下，目前上海基层社区的生活物资供应保障逐步好转。“从第一批的蔬菜、大米牛奶鸡蛋，再到现在的鸡腿鸡翅和粑粑柑，供应越来越丰富。”在浦东新区金桥镇某小区当“团长”的柳丽丽说。夜晚，团购物资到了上海徐汇某小区居民楼大厅，志愿者们正在做“家门口最后100米”的配送上海，是一座拥有2500万人口的超大城市。高度的流动性和多元化的人口结构，使得很多人都不太认识自己的邻居。这场疫情，让不少平日“潜水”的社区“能人”“热心人”浮出水面，带领大伙“四处觅食”。这种邻里间的互助关爱，让很多人重新理解了“远亲不如近邻”的含义。柳丽丽发现，团购群其实也是一个邻里互助群。“谁家缺了葱蒜、纸巾、油盐，群里说一声，大家都会帮衬一把。”在上海徐汇某小区做“团长”的倪倚天有一天收到一条特别的入群申请：“我来自日本，现在一个人在上海工作，上海的情况每天在日本的电视台上报道，我的家人非常关心我。希望您能让我的妻子加入这个微信群，因为我想向她展示一下这个社区的管理情况和我被友好邻居包围的生活，让家人放心，谢谢！”“上海之所以是上海，不只是梧桐树下的浪漫、咖啡厅和小酒馆里的情调。这些都是表象，真正值得尊敬的是维系这些世俗生活背后的市民力量，是普通上海人愿意挺身而出为邻里做事的担当。”倪倚天说。社区团购这种居民自发组织的行为，与监管部门、基层组织和物业公司如何有效互动、磨合，也需要一个探索的过程。近期，上海市场监管部门、上海市人民检察院先后发布《关于规范疫情防控期间“社区团购”价格行为的提示函》和相关法律责任手册，提醒“团长”们注意“避坑”“避雷”。上海的很多小区居委会、物业公司也要求社区团购实行备案管理，避免这种行为的无序生长。“因为团购来的商品都要经过物业消杀，有的封控楼宇还需要物业或志愿者送货，所以这个备案管理还是必须的。有一次我们小区的居民想要团购咖啡，物业公司就提醒，咖啡消杀起来比较麻烦，也不是必需商品，特殊时期还是算了吧，最后大家也能理解。”朱敏说。钱大暖也认为，病毒面前，大家都是一根绳上的蚂蚱，不分贫富也不分地域。“这轮疫情中固然有许多不和谐的声音出现，但想要战胜疫情，恐怕每个人都要意识到，自我小一点、格局大一点，清零的那一天才会近一点。”经历这轮疫情，钱大暖发现这个老小区的多数居民很懂得感恩别人的付出，包容度也很高。“本来我是准备搬走的，现在反而想在这里安家。”疫情终将过去，“团长”终将“卸任”。这段共患难的日子，或将为上海这个以情调著称的城市，注入新的更加坚韧的内涵。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199911703,"gmtCreate":1620661723302,"gmtModify":1620661723302,"author":{"id":"3514120915896560","authorId":"3514120915896560","name":"布赖事","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514120915896560","authorIdStr":"3514120915896560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**蹭热点","listText":"**蹭热点","text":"**蹭热点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199911703","repostId":"1108301559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338605508,"gmtCreate":1609890367604,"gmtModify":1703741103673,"author":{"id":"3514120915896560","authorId":"3514120915896560","name":"布赖事","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514120915896560","authorIdStr":"3514120915896560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国还不是一样，谷歌能用吗，paypal能用吗，whatsapp能用吗","listText":"中国还不是一样，谷歌能用吗，paypal能用吗，whatsapp能用吗","text":"中国还不是一样，谷歌能用吗，paypal能用吗，whatsapp能用吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338605508","repostId":"1124881092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541302029129179","authorId":"3541302029129179","name":"发财了鸭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2039c088e848e2b95787368e44b567ef","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541302029129179","authorIdStr":"3541302029129179"},"content":"确实有一定道理，但是片面。不能用，一开始就讲清不能用，想进来需要什么条件。这是开始可以进来，突然一连串威胁安全禁止，明显故意打压。","text":"确实有一定道理，但是片面。不能用，一开始就讲清不能用，想进来需要什么条件。这是开始可以进来，突然一连串威胁安全禁止，明显故意打压。","html":"确实有一定道理，但是片面。不能用，一开始就讲清不能用，想进来需要什么条件。这是开始可以进来，突然一连串威胁安全禁止，明显故意打压。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":957574089,"gmtCreate":1593522531041,"gmtModify":1704202218969,"author":{"id":"3514120915896560","authorId":"3514120915896560","name":"布赖事","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514120915896560","authorIdStr":"3514120915896560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>怎么还那么坚挺","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>怎么还那么坚挺","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 怎么还那么坚挺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/957574089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955149897,"gmtCreate":1592343384519,"gmtModify":1704198931758,"author":{"id":"3514120915896560","authorId":"3514120915896560","name":"布赖事","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514120915896560","authorIdStr":"3514120915896560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"万恶的资本就是太贪婪","listText":"万恶的资本就是太贪婪","text":"万恶的资本就是太贪婪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955149897","repostId":"1173569233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173569233","pubTimestamp":1592303976,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173569233?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-16 18:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"关于“腾讯拟成为爱奇艺最大股东”的6点看法","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173569233","media":"36氪","summary":"今天下午路透社忽然透露，腾讯有意成为爱奇艺最大股东，不过关于细节语焉不详：“腾讯已经与拥有56.2%爱奇艺股权的百度就购买未确定规模的股份进行接洽，但腾讯目前是否已与爱奇艺接触仍是未知。此外，知情人士","content":"<p>今天下午路透社忽然透露，腾讯有意成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>最大股东，不过关于细节语焉不详：“腾讯已经与拥有56.2%爱奇艺股权的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>就购买未确定规模的股份进行接洽，但腾讯目前是否已与爱奇艺接触仍是未知。此外，知情人士表示，该计划仍处于早期阶段，随时可能更改。”</p>\n<p>简单地说，腾讯要从百度手里购买爱奇艺股份进而成为其最大股东，不过一切都只是计划，甚至只是“想法”。敏感的资本市场，听风就是雨，爱奇艺盘前大涨超过40%，与该消息直接相关。</p>\n<p>最近这段时间美股、港股一片大涨，特别是中概股，阿里、腾讯等头部巨头在充足的资金储备上，拥有了更多的弹药，比如这次传言中的主角，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>一季度净利润288.9亿元，同比增长6%；收入1080.7亿元，同比增长26%；自由现金流392.1亿元，现金流本身就充沛。这段时间腾讯股价接连攀升，创下近两年新高，6月16日收报448.800港元，再涨3.51%。股价大涨给腾讯募集了更多资金。</p>\n<p>资本是不会睡觉的。与头部巨头股价的不断攀升不同，疫情期间很多优质资产价格变低，或者上涨相对不多，因此给了巨头抄底机会。<b>基于此，腾讯、阿里等巨头2020年或许会重新启动大手笔“买买买”整合优质资产的模式。</b></p>\n<p>那么，腾讯“腾讯计划成为爱奇艺最大股东”逻辑上是否说得通呢？关于此我的看法如下：</p>\n<p><b>1、腾讯有购买的强烈意愿。</b>腾讯2020年会大力整合市面上的优质资产，作为“爱优腾”领衔者，爱奇艺在长视频赛道不论是内容能力、用户规模、会员规模还是技术能力均是优等生，特别是在综艺等内容领域更是有无可比拟的优势，而长视频赛道与腾讯“新文创”或者说“泛娱乐”密切相关，对腾讯来说是十分契合的优质资产。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffee4fa16f6304fca639989730ba386e\" tg-width=\"2372\" tg-height=\"1334\"></p>\n<p><b>2、买了后有巨大的整合空间。</b>中国长视频行业一直是亏损的，无非是收入太小、成本太高。</p>\n<p>收入方面，长视频原先靠广告入不敷出，现在靠会员+广告，会员价格便宜，各家酝酿会员费涨价，酝酿了很久都不敢涨，因为涨价了会员就跑到别的平台了，大家只能冒着被用户骂的风险搞“超前点播”这样的玩法来挖掘存量用户价值，或者说变相提高会员费。如果加速整合后，试想爱奇艺成为腾讯系，两家联合起来涨价难度会不会小一点？涨价不应该被骂，毕竟有足够的资金才能做出更好的内容，然而，在现在这样的多巨头共存的格局下，涨价很难。会员费外，广告等商业模式也会随着规模效应而释放出更大的价值。</p>\n<p>成本方面，很多成本比如内容制作、研发投入、市场推广等等，整合后可以省下来不少。<b>简单地说，整合可以结束或者减缓烧钱大战，更早实现盈利，就像共享单车、网约车等领域发生的事情一样。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、百度有没有卖的意愿？</b>百度有内容战略，且十分重视，不过其更多是聚焦在“信息与知识”上，布局百家号、好看视频、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>小视频、知识体系内容等等。百度没有类似于腾讯、阿里这样的泛文娱战略，曾经有，后来游戏、音乐等等都被拆分了，只剩下长视频，爱奇艺整体相对百度是比较独立的，跟腾讯视频和腾讯的关系完全不一样。对于百度来说，售卖部分爱奇艺股份，再保留部分回笼资金的做法，不是没有可能，就像百度售卖携程股票一样，2019年10月，百度出售了部分<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">携程网</a>股票，持股占流通股的比例从大约19%降至11.7%。<b>当然，这个交易的关键要看Robin以及百度管理层怎么想的，对爱奇艺的未来以及百度的未来是如何考虑的，以及，腾讯的价码是否诱人。</b></p>\n<p><b>4、如果成真市场会发生什么？</b>目前长视频有四个主要玩家：爱优腾和B站，字节跳动通过西瓜在发力。如果腾讯真成为爱奇艺最大股东，毫无疑问，在爱奇艺、腾讯视频与B站夹击下的优酷压力会很大，目前腾讯与阿里在B站均持有股份，腾讯多一点。4月B站提交给SEC的FORM 20-F年度报告显示，B站董事长兼CEO陈睿持股15.1%，为B站最大股东；腾讯控股持股13.3%，与上一年相比增加了1.4个百分点，为其第二大股东；淘宝中国为B站第四大股东，持股7.2%。<b>因此，如果腾讯成为爱奇艺最大股东后，三大视频平台“合围”优酷就成为可能。腾讯的直接对手字节跳动旗下的西瓜视频要想做起来，同样会面临这样的“围攻”。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29dca8c99b504fc4ed3c96f52beff0ab\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"></p>\n<p><b>5、长视频收拾好了是短视频。</b>前段时间腾讯视频说裁撤短视频团队，很多人解读是腾讯放弃短视频战略，显然这是不可能的事情，联系起来看这表明腾讯视频聚焦长视频。腾讯如果成功整合爱奇艺，长视频这一关键市场没有大的战役后，再腾出手来收拾短视频市场，逻辑上说得通，符合小马哥步步为营的做事风格。</p>\n<p><b>6、如果百度真的同意这项交易，Robin选择腾讯，恐怕影响的不只是长视频行业</b>，百度的AI是腾讯短缺的，阿里不缺是因为有达摩院和阿里云，前者投资巨大，后者入局最早，在补齐阿里技术短板的同时构建了核心技术优势。<b>而腾讯要做产业互联网，要to B，AI是绕不过去的一道坎，然而目前腾讯在AI技术布局上乏善可陈，基于此腾讯与百度的合作，爱奇艺可能只是一个起点。</b></p>\n<p>当然，以上都是假设，中国科技产业最近的故事太多了，在靴子落地前，让子弹再飞一会儿。唯一可以确定的是，巨头们正在加速市场整合的步伐，它们的进击野心丝毫没有被疫情所影响。</p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>关于“腾讯拟成为爱奇艺最大股东”的6点看法</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n关于“腾讯拟成为爱奇艺最大股东”的6点看法\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-16 18:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/754155092496521><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天下午路透社忽然透露，腾讯有意成为爱奇艺最大股东，不过关于细节语焉不详：“腾讯已经与拥有56.2%爱奇艺股权的百度就购买未确定规模的股份进行接洽，但腾讯目前是否已与爱奇艺接触仍是未知。此外，知情人士表示，该计划仍处于早期阶段，随时可能更改。”\n简单地说，腾讯要从百度手里购买爱奇艺股份进而成为其最大股东，不过一切都只是计划，甚至只是“想法”。敏感的资本市场，听风就是雨，爱奇艺盘前大涨超过40%，与...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/754155092496521\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e920c1385cb5cf344de85507bd0bf","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","IQ":"爱奇艺"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/754155092496521","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173569233","content_text":"今天下午路透社忽然透露，腾讯有意成为爱奇艺最大股东，不过关于细节语焉不详：“腾讯已经与拥有56.2%爱奇艺股权的百度就购买未确定规模的股份进行接洽，但腾讯目前是否已与爱奇艺接触仍是未知。此外，知情人士表示，该计划仍处于早期阶段，随时可能更改。”\n简单地说，腾讯要从百度手里购买爱奇艺股份进而成为其最大股东，不过一切都只是计划，甚至只是“想法”。敏感的资本市场，听风就是雨，爱奇艺盘前大涨超过40%，与该消息直接相关。\n最近这段时间美股、港股一片大涨，特别是中概股，阿里、腾讯等头部巨头在充足的资金储备上，拥有了更多的弹药，比如这次传言中的主角，腾讯控股一季度净利润288.9亿元，同比增长6%；收入1080.7亿元，同比增长26%；自由现金流392.1亿元，现金流本身就充沛。这段时间腾讯股价接连攀升，创下近两年新高，6月16日收报448.800港元，再涨3.51%。股价大涨给腾讯募集了更多资金。\n资本是不会睡觉的。与头部巨头股价的不断攀升不同，疫情期间很多优质资产价格变低，或者上涨相对不多，因此给了巨头抄底机会。基于此，腾讯、阿里等巨头2020年或许会重新启动大手笔“买买买”整合优质资产的模式。\n那么，腾讯“腾讯计划成为爱奇艺最大股东”逻辑上是否说得通呢？关于此我的看法如下：\n1、腾讯有购买的强烈意愿。腾讯2020年会大力整合市面上的优质资产，作为“爱优腾”领衔者，爱奇艺在长视频赛道不论是内容能力、用户规模、会员规模还是技术能力均是优等生，特别是在综艺等内容领域更是有无可比拟的优势，而长视频赛道与腾讯“新文创”或者说“泛娱乐”密切相关，对腾讯来说是十分契合的优质资产。\n\n2、买了后有巨大的整合空间。中国长视频行业一直是亏损的，无非是收入太小、成本太高。\n收入方面，长视频原先靠广告入不敷出，现在靠会员+广告，会员价格便宜，各家酝酿会员费涨价，酝酿了很久都不敢涨，因为涨价了会员就跑到别的平台了，大家只能冒着被用户骂的风险搞“超前点播”这样的玩法来挖掘存量用户价值，或者说变相提高会员费。如果加速整合后，试想爱奇艺成为腾讯系，两家联合起来涨价难度会不会小一点？涨价不应该被骂，毕竟有足够的资金才能做出更好的内容，然而，在现在这样的多巨头共存的格局下，涨价很难。会员费外，广告等商业模式也会随着规模效应而释放出更大的价值。\n成本方面，很多成本比如内容制作、研发投入、市场推广等等，整合后可以省下来不少。简单地说，整合可以结束或者减缓烧钱大战，更早实现盈利，就像共享单车、网约车等领域发生的事情一样。\n3、百度有没有卖的意愿？百度有内容战略，且十分重视，不过其更多是聚焦在“信息与知识”上，布局百家号、好看视频、全民小视频、知识体系内容等等。百度没有类似于腾讯、阿里这样的泛文娱战略，曾经有，后来游戏、音乐等等都被拆分了，只剩下长视频，爱奇艺整体相对百度是比较独立的，跟腾讯视频和腾讯的关系完全不一样。对于百度来说，售卖部分爱奇艺股份，再保留部分回笼资金的做法，不是没有可能，就像百度售卖携程股票一样，2019年10月，百度出售了部分携程网股票，持股占流通股的比例从大约19%降至11.7%。当然，这个交易的关键要看Robin以及百度管理层怎么想的，对爱奇艺的未来以及百度的未来是如何考虑的，以及，腾讯的价码是否诱人。\n4、如果成真市场会发生什么？目前长视频有四个主要玩家：爱优腾和B站，字节跳动通过西瓜在发力。如果腾讯真成为爱奇艺最大股东，毫无疑问，在爱奇艺、腾讯视频与B站夹击下的优酷压力会很大，目前腾讯与阿里在B站均持有股份，腾讯多一点。4月B站提交给SEC的FORM 20-F年度报告显示，B站董事长兼CEO陈睿持股15.1%，为B站最大股东；腾讯控股持股13.3%，与上一年相比增加了1.4个百分点，为其第二大股东；淘宝中国为B站第四大股东，持股7.2%。因此，如果腾讯成为爱奇艺最大股东后，三大视频平台“合围”优酷就成为可能。腾讯的直接对手字节跳动旗下的西瓜视频要想做起来，同样会面临这样的“围攻”。\n\n5、长视频收拾好了是短视频。前段时间腾讯视频说裁撤短视频团队，很多人解读是腾讯放弃短视频战略，显然这是不可能的事情，联系起来看这表明腾讯视频聚焦长视频。腾讯如果成功整合爱奇艺，长视频这一关键市场没有大的战役后，再腾出手来收拾短视频市场，逻辑上说得通，符合小马哥步步为营的做事风格。\n6、如果百度真的同意这项交易，Robin选择腾讯，恐怕影响的不只是长视频行业，百度的AI是腾讯短缺的，阿里不缺是因为有达摩院和阿里云，前者投资巨大，后者入局最早，在补齐阿里技术短板的同时构建了核心技术优势。而腾讯要做产业互联网，要to 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