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Migo888
2020-09-29
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉还是挺厉害的
Migo888
2020-09-15
中手游继续看好
Migo888
2020-02-13
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2020-02-13
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@鑫鑫洋:巴菲特常说,是芒格让他从猩猩进化到人类,想要学习巴菲特,不得不了解芒格。他的智慧,不仅仅关于投资,更关乎人生。翻开《查理·芒格的投资思想》便会发现,这位当今世界上最伟大的投资人所拥有的人生智慧,在他随意说的每句话里默默流淌。本文是我读这本新书时的随笔杂记,不求连贯、不求通畅、只是记录,即使是老生常谈,也是常读常新,随时翻阅,不断成长。1、少年芒格阅读了大量的书籍,在没有电视和电子游戏的时代,通过阅读,他发现了一个更广阔的世界。(每天不定期更新一段)
Migo888
2020-02-12
好
@不见233:历史用来约束规律,但不该约束思考
Migo888
2020-01-17
$中手游(00302)$
心动公司感觉要比中手游猛多了
Migo888
2020-01-14
挺猛
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2020-01-09
厉害了
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2020-01-09
挺牛逼啊
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2020-01-09
感觉要干起来啊
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2020-01-07
起飞了!跟着上吧!
Migo888
2019-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
牛
Migo888
2019-12-16
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2019-12-16
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2019-12-16
中手游要起飞了
Migo888
2019-11-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Migo888
2019-10-02
美股要比A股好玩
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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或许许多读者会认为仅仅是一场黑天鹅式的肺炎冲击中国,从而迅雷不及掩耳之势恶化全球风险偏好。但若看一月全球政经冲突,中东乱象,澳洲大火,实际上其为伤痕累累,不堪重负的积极风险预期补上最后一刀——压死骆驼最后一根稻草。 这或许与大多数偏好低波动率和作线性预测的宏观观察者有细微差异,但实则大相径庭——自我剖析:不排除从观点里看出笔者这类唱多黄金的偏向黑天鹅面向突发事件类做多波动率策略的主观判断,但极力克制与寻求客观证据是宏观基本面研究的铁则。(在宏观分析框架里“黑天鹅事件”是一种驱动因素可以针对设计策略,故能看到笔者在内做风险偏好恶化的players从中获利) SO,自笔者做宏观研究近3年,第一次在非历史回顾而是现实中遇见大规模病疫冲击宏观经济前景预期的案例,不得不谨小慎微,笃实做逻辑推理+历史对照:宏观预判(海内外经济正反馈逻辑/经济结构-数据一一证伪)+微观观察(细分行业报告,企业一季度财报等)+历史环境横纵对比(SARS与2019-nCoV场景)。 图一:03年SARS SHOCK 图二:CN-实际GDP增速及其细分项 当前主流观点依旧是和SARS时期的对比和参照,重历史对照轻逻辑推理。但至少几点共识达成:1.宏观结果中,如03年Q2非典对GDP冲击约2%(11跌至9+)随后相对冲击减缓——对照至今19年Q4(6-?;深V结构出来但底在哪反弹至哪仍无结论);2微观经济反馈,场景逻辑的再培养,聪明人太多了,提前布局不似03年那般仍未意识到互联网-线上需求取代实际场景——基础消费需求从线下转移线上,从较长远的实际需求来看,疫情对这类消费的挤出是会被时间摊平的(微观上","listText":"近期宏观界巨鲸们(基金/投行)or国内外财经媒体纷纷对一二季度中国宏观经济评估,增长预期的大幅修正,随后油铜等大宗商品的暴跌,大类资产的重新定价(美股除外)几乎反应19年末-20年初put全球经济回暖预期打掉。 或许许多读者会认为仅仅是一场黑天鹅式的肺炎冲击中国,从而迅雷不及掩耳之势恶化全球风险偏好。但若看一月全球政经冲突,中东乱象,澳洲大火,实际上其为伤痕累累,不堪重负的积极风险预期补上最后一刀——压死骆驼最后一根稻草。 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