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13:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"汽车行业点评报告：特斯拉股价跟踪：乐观者开始左侧买入 关注Q2交付","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448959493","media":"招商证券股份有...","summary":"事件：特斯拉股价近日走强，6 月26 日上涨4.8%，6 月28 日盘中突破200 美元，收于197.9 美元，为24 年3 月以来的高点，市值来到6311 亿美元。分析：6 月26 日，媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃自产4680 电池，转而向外部供应商采购。同时，近日报道称LG 计划于8 月在韩国乌昌工厂开始生产4680，成为全球首家大规模量产4680 的供应商。2）公司预计将于7 月2 日披露Q2 交付数据，预期疲软。风险提示：Q2 交付不及预期；Q2 业绩承压；机器人及FSD 进展不及预期。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>近期股价走强，为24 年3 月以来高点，我们更新近况，分享最新思考。</p><p>事件：</p><p>特斯拉股价近日走强，6 月26 日上涨4.8%，6 月28 日盘中突破200 美元，收于197.9 美元，为24 年3 月以来的高点，市值来到6311 亿美元。</p><p>分析：</p><p>6 月26 日，媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃自产4680 电池，转而向外部供应商采购。同时，近日报道称LG 计划于8 月在韩国乌昌工厂开始生产4680，成为全球首家大规模量产4680 的供应商。（LG 早在今年2 月就透露过这个消息，此后未发布任何更新）</p><p>点评：</p><p>1）从此前媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃Model Q 底板的一次成型（改为三段式），到传闻放弃自产4680，均反映特斯拉转向更加务实的技术路线，以保障车型量产。此前股东大会披露Cybertruck 周产1300 辆，爬坡缓慢。</p><p>2）公司预计将于7 月2 日披露Q2 交付数据，预期疲软。Marklines 口径显示4-5 月特斯拉全球交付同比-8.9%，其中美国和欧洲均录得较大幅度下滑，中国内销增长。目前分析师预期Q2 交付42 万~43.6 万辆左右，同比-9.9%~-6.5%（23Q2 交付46.6 万辆）。</p><p>3）关注Model 3 &amp; Y 改款进展，或许可以帮助市场跳过今年而展望明年。关注供应链发包情况。</p><p>4）技术面，3 月至今股价走出了类似<span>头肩底</span>的形态，接下来的关键<span>阻力位</span>在205 美元；再往上则被长期下行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>压制，阻力位在230 美元附近。资金面，表现出Mag7 的内部轮动和高切低的意味。</p><p>5）我们认为，核心在于市场已经交易出了底部，投资者对今年疲软的基本面日渐包容，逐步展望明年；尤其在马斯克薪酬方案落地后，下行风险可控，有信仰的投资者开始左侧买入，并且不惧怕潜在的Q2 利空。</p><p>6）上行路径仍不清晰。潜在催化剂包括：4680 产量突破（无论自产还是外供）；Model 3 &amp; Y 改款进展；FSD 入华、版本更新、渗透率突破、对外授权；8 月发布Robotaxi；AI Day 其他利好。</p><p>7）当前彭博一致预期，2024-25E Non-GAAP <span>净利润</span>82.7 亿/113.2 亿美元，同比-24%/+36.9%，对应76.3x/55.8x 2024-25E P/E。</p><p>风险提示：Q2 交付不及预期；Q2 业绩承压；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>及FSD 进展不及预期。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>汽车行业点评报告：特斯拉股价跟踪：乐观者开始左侧买入 关注Q2交付</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n汽车行业点评报告：特斯拉股价跟踪：乐观者开始左侧买入 关注Q2交付\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-01 13:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202407011350559eea73f1&s=b><strong>招商证券股份有...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉近期股价走强，为24 年3 月以来高点，我们更新近况，分享最新思考。事件：特斯拉股价近日走强，6 月26 日上涨4.8%，6 月28 日盘中突破200 美元，收于197.9 美元，为24 年3 月以来的高点，市值来到6311 亿美元。分析：6 月26 日，媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃自产4680 电池，转而向外部供应商采购。同时，近日报道称LG 计划于8 月在韩国乌昌工厂开始生产4680，成为全球...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202407011350559eea73f1&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc 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Cap","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202407011350559eea73f1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2448959493","content_text":"特斯拉近期股价走强，为24 年3 月以来高点，我们更新近况，分享最新思考。事件：特斯拉股价近日走强，6 月26 日上涨4.8%，6 月28 日盘中突破200 美元，收于197.9 美元，为24 年3 月以来的高点，市值来到6311 亿美元。分析：6 月26 日，媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃自产4680 电池，转而向外部供应商采购。同时，近日报道称LG 计划于8 月在韩国乌昌工厂开始生产4680，成为全球首家大规模量产4680 的供应商。（LG 早在今年2 月就透露过这个消息，此后未发布任何更新）点评：1）从此前媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃Model Q 底板的一次成型（改为三段式），到传闻放弃自产4680，均反映特斯拉转向更加务实的技术路线，以保障车型量产。此前股东大会披露Cybertruck 周产1300 辆，爬坡缓慢。2）公司预计将于7 月2 日披露Q2 交付数据，预期疲软。Marklines 口径显示4-5 月特斯拉全球交付同比-8.9%，其中美国和欧洲均录得较大幅度下滑，中国内销增长。目前分析师预期Q2 交付42 万~43.6 万辆左右，同比-9.9%~-6.5%（23Q2 交付46.6 万辆）。3）关注Model 3 & Y 改款进展，或许可以帮助市场跳过今年而展望明年。关注供应链发包情况。4）技术面，3 月至今股价走出了类似头肩底的形态，接下来的关键阻力位在205 美元；再往上则被长期下行趋势线压制，阻力位在230 美元附近。资金面，表现出Mag7 的内部轮动和高切低的意味。5）我们认为，核心在于市场已经交易出了底部，投资者对今年疲软的基本面日渐包容，逐步展望明年；尤其在马斯克薪酬方案落地后，下行风险可控，有信仰的投资者开始左侧买入，并且不惧怕潜在的Q2 利空。6）上行路径仍不清晰。潜在催化剂包括：4680 产量突破（无论自产还是外供）；Model 3 & Y 改款进展；FSD 入华、版本更新、渗透率突破、对外授权；8 月发布Robotaxi；AI Day 其他利好。7）当前彭博一致预期，2024-25E Non-GAAP 净利润82.7 亿/113.2 亿美元，同比-24%/+36.9%，对应76.3x/55.8x 2024-25E P/E。风险提示：Q2 交付不及预期；Q2 业绩承压；机器人及FSD 进展不及预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":264827165061424,"gmtCreate":1705677464607,"gmtModify":1705677492501,"author":{"id":"3505265196222286","authorId":"3505265196222286","name":"朕成功","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e313a3ce46941527c566e2b0ac974f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAAS\">$能链智电(NAAS)$ &nbsp;</a>骗子公司要玩完了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAAS\">$能链智电(NAAS)$ &nbsp;</a>骗子公司要玩完了！","text":"$能链智电(NAAS)$ 骗子公司要玩完了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264827165061424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":223913934106760,"gmtCreate":1695641715051,"gmtModify":1695645813647,"author":{"id":"3505265196222286","authorId":"3505265196222286","name":"朕成功","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e313a3ce46941527c566e2b0ac974f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/223913934106760","repostId":"2370266137","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2370266137","pubTimestamp":1695640200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2370266137?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-25 19:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"蔚来汽车考虑通过投资者筹资30亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2370266137","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"查看最新行情\n\n\n\n　　北京时间9月25日晚间消息，知情人士透露，蔚来在考虑通过投资者筹集约30亿美元资金。\n　　知情人士称，蔚来接洽了中东投资者，最早可能在明年进行融资。目前仍在谈判中，细节可能会有变动。知情人士还表示，蔚来不一定会推进融资。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/n/us/min/640x360xxfhd/NIO.png\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n查看最新行情\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<p>　　北京时间9月25日晚间消息，知情人士透露，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a></span><span></span>在考虑通过投资者筹集约30亿美元资金。</p>\n<p>　　知情人士称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>接洽了中东投资者，最早可能在明年进行融资。目前仍在谈判中，细节可能会有变动。知情人士还表示，蔚来不一定会推进融资。</p>\n<div>\n<span>现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：刘明亮 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来汽车考虑通过投资者筹资30亿美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"title\">\n蔚来汽车考虑通过投资者筹资30亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-25 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-09-25/doc-imznxqta8839618.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>查看最新行情\n\n\n\n　　北京时间9月25日晚间消息，知情人士透露，蔚来在考虑通过投资者筹集约30亿美元资金。\n　　知情人士称，蔚来接洽了中东投资者，最早可能在明年进行融资。目前仍在谈判中，细节可能会有变动。知情人士还表示，蔚来不一定会推进融资。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-09-25/doc-imznxqta8839618.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","NIO":"蔚来","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-09-25/doc-imznxqta8839618.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2370266137","content_text":"查看最新行情\n\n\n\n　　北京时间9月25日晚间消息，知情人士透露，蔚来在考虑通过投资者筹集约30亿美元资金。\n　　知情人士称，蔚来接洽了中东投资者，最早可能在明年进行融资。目前仍在谈判中，细节可能会有变动。知情人士还表示，蔚来不一定会推进融资。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}