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汽车行业点评报告:特斯拉股价跟踪:乐观者开始左侧买入 关注Q2交付
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月特斯拉全球交付同比-8.9%,其中美国和欧洲均录得较大幅度下滑,中国内销增长。目前分析师预期Q2 交付42 万~43.6 万辆左右,同比-9.9%~-6.5%(23Q2 交付46.6 万辆)。</p><p>3)关注Model 3 & Y 改款进展,或许可以帮助市场跳过今年而展望明年。关注供应链发包情况。</p><p>4)技术面,3 月至今股价走出了类似<span>头肩底</span>的形态,接下来的关键<span>阻力位</span>在205 美元;再往上则被长期下行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>压制,阻力位在230 美元附近。资金面,表现出Mag7 的内部轮动和高切低的意味。</p><p>5)我们认为,核心在于市场已经交易出了底部,投资者对今年疲软的基本面日渐包容,逐步展望明年;尤其在马斯克薪酬方案落地后,下行风险可控,有信仰的投资者开始左侧买入,并且不惧怕潜在的Q2 利空。</p><p>6)上行路径仍不清晰。潜在催化剂包括:4680 产量突破(无论自产还是外供);Model 3 & Y 改款进展;FSD 入华、版本更新、渗透率突破、对外授权;8 月发布Robotaxi;AI Day 其他利好。</p><p>7)当前彭博一致预期,2024-25E Non-GAAP <span>净利润</span>82.7 亿/113.2 亿美元,同比-24%/+36.9%,对应76.3x/55.8x 2024-25E P/E。</p><p>风险提示:Q2 交付不及预期;Q2 业绩承压;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>及FSD 进展不及预期。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202407011350559eea73f1&s=b><strong>招商证券股份有...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉近期股价走强,为24 年3 月以来高点,我们更新近况,分享最新思考。事件:特斯拉股价近日走强,6 月26 日上涨4.8%,6 月28 日盘中突破200 美元,收于197.9 美元,为24 年3 月以来的高点,市值来到6311 亿美元。分析:6 月26 日,媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃自产4680 电池,转而向外部供应商采购。同时,近日报道称LG 计划于8 月在韩国乌昌工厂开始生产4680,成为全球...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202407011350559eea73f1&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP 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Cl ET Acc H2-SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202407011350559eea73f1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2448959493","content_text":"特斯拉近期股价走强,为24 年3 月以来高点,我们更新近况,分享最新思考。事件:特斯拉股价近日走强,6 月26 日上涨4.8%,6 月28 日盘中突破200 美元,收于197.9 美元,为24 年3 月以来的高点,市值来到6311 亿美元。分析:6 月26 日,媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃自产4680 电池,转而向外部供应商采购。同时,近日报道称LG 计划于8 月在韩国乌昌工厂开始生产4680,成为全球首家大规模量产4680 的供应商。(LG 早在今年2 月就透露过这个消息,此后未发布任何更新)点评:1)从此前媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃Model Q 底板的一次成型(改为三段式),到传闻放弃自产4680,均反映特斯拉转向更加务实的技术路线,以保障车型量产。此前股东大会披露Cybertruck 周产1300 辆,爬坡缓慢。2)公司预计将于7 月2 日披露Q2 交付数据,预期疲软。Marklines 口径显示4-5 月特斯拉全球交付同比-8.9%,其中美国和欧洲均录得较大幅度下滑,中国内销增长。目前分析师预期Q2 交付42 万~43.6 万辆左右,同比-9.9%~-6.5%(23Q2 交付46.6 万辆)。3)关注Model 3 & Y 改款进展,或许可以帮助市场跳过今年而展望明年。关注供应链发包情况。4)技术面,3 月至今股价走出了类似头肩底的形态,接下来的关键阻力位在205 美元;再往上则被长期下行趋势线压制,阻力位在230 美元附近。资金面,表现出Mag7 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