汽车行业点评报告：特斯拉股价跟踪：乐观者开始左侧买入关注Q2交付

招商证券股份有...07-01

特斯拉近期股价走强，为24 年3 月以来高点，我们更新近况，分享最新思考。事件：特斯拉股价近日走强，6 月26 日上涨4.8%，6 月28 日盘中突破200 美元，收于197.9 美元，为24 年3 月以来的高点，市值来到6311 亿美元。分析：6 月26 日，媒体报道特斯拉考虑放弃自产4680 电池，转而向外部供应商采购。同时，近日报道称LG 计划于8 月在韩国乌昌工厂开始生产4680，成为全球...

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的内部轮动和高切低的意味。5）我们认为，核心在于市场已经交易出了底部，投资者对今年疲软的基本面日渐包容，逐步展望明年；尤其在马斯克薪酬方案落地后，下行风险可控，有信仰的投资者开始左侧买入，并且不惧怕潜在的Q2 利空。6）上行路径仍不清晰。潜在催化剂包括：4680 产量突破（无论自产还是外供）；Model 3 & Y 改款进展；FSD 入华、版本更新、渗透率突破、对外授权；8 月发布Robotaxi；AI Day 其他利好。7）当前彭博一致预期，2024-25E Non-GAAP 净利润82.7 亿/113.2 亿美元，同比-24%/+36.9%，对应76.3x/55.8x 2024-25E P/E。风险提示：Q2 交付不及预期；Q2 业绩承压；机器人及FSD 进展不及预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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汽车行业点评报告：特斯拉股价跟踪：乐观者开始左侧买入 关注Q2交付

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汽车行业点评报告：特斯拉股价跟踪：乐观者开始左侧买入关注Q2交付