比特书生的个人主页 - 老虎社区

比特书生

比特书生

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IP属地：福建

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0勋章

2021-05-20

$高途(GOTU)$大浪淘沙沉者为金,风卷残云胜者为王

2021-01-29

$小牛电动(NIU)$为什么有的盘前交易了有的没动静呢时间不一样吗

2021-01-06

$亿航智能(EH)$感觉亿航的路线是正确的，只差时间和电池技术的发展，需要长期持有

2020-12-12

$优信(UXIN)$要玩蛋了吗？

2020-12-03

$优信(UXIN)$秒变投诉和曝光平台了这是，投资是需要理性和客观的，无论看多还是看空，需要各自独到的眼光和运气，被他人左右或者试着去左右他人，都是不太可取的，况且前面有个帖子说的好，股票不是拔河比赛，喊是没有用的，看好就买，不看好就离开删掉自选

2020-12-02

$优信(UXIN)$换手率格外低，意味着什么呢🤔

2020-12-01

$蔚来(NIO)$快点抄底啊

2020-11-30

视角不错，理性为上

@星辰大海的边界:击落“电动三傻”的会是什么？

2020-11-30

$亿航智能(EH)$亿航现在赚钱的业务是啥千机飞行表演吗

2020-11-26

$优信(UXIN)$还没加仓完，睡一觉起来都这样了，半开心半失落

2020-11-25

优信加油，踏实走好每一步

优信口碑生态圈初显成效，NPS值将超40%

2020-11-24

$优信(UXIN)$等一等再继续加仓

2020-11-24

$优信(UXIN)$今晚这波下跌能不能顶住，看看小鹏

2020-11-23

$优信(UXIN)$换了蔚来，来优信了，加油呀

2020-11-17

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$没啥动静啊，260左右磨磨叽叽

2020-11-16

$蔚来(NIO)$怕怕的，获利了结先，求稳[流泪] ，阿里跌了不少，来一点，应该不会再跌了吧

2020-11-15

$亿航智能(EH)$几年前关注过亿航，最近才开始来到老虎，没想到都上市了，17年德国volocopter取代亿航成为迪拜合作商，是因为前者更符合德国和国际安全和保安标准，不知道EH216是否考虑过安全冗余问题，比如降落伞之类的呢

2020-11-12

$优信(UXIN)$不得不说，新能源如此涨幅，还能平静的拿着优信的，确实佩服优信长期还是不错的

2020-05-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$7亿美金的奖金，当然要低点接了，

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">$优信(UXIN)$</a>换手率格外低，意味着什么呢🤔","text":"$优信(UXIN)$换手率格外低，意味着什么呢🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398183713","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398138811,"gmtCreate":1606836938633,"gmtModify":1703844838047,"author":{"id":"3503572093511944","authorId":"3503572093511944","name":"比特书生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e7e7f5b749081a78ac4f879d126403","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>快点抄底啊","listText":"<a 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但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！  凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战","listText":"今年环球资本市场最闪亮的星，无疑是蔚来汽车为代表的中国电动车新势力。蔚来用1年30倍的涨幅宣告，中国永远不缺商业神话，李斌这个2019年最惨的人也可以翻身。 但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！  凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战","text":"今年环球资本市场最闪亮的星，无疑是蔚来汽车为代表的中国电动车新势力。蔚来用1年30倍的涨幅宣告，中国永远不缺商业神话，李斌这个2019年最惨的人也可以翻身。 但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！ 凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 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千机飞行表演吗","text":"$亿航智能(EH)$亿航现在赚钱的业务是啥 千机飞行表演吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391288593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3542415583760752","authorId":"3542415583760752","name":"lovex亿航无人机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f79312c25d029b645af79e186e5077a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"载人飞机亿航AVV216","text":"载人飞机亿航AVV216","html":"载人飞机亿航AVV216"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393404443,"gmtCreate":1606345753382,"gmtModify":1703842736541,"author":{"id":"3503572093511944","authorId":"3503572093511944","name":"比特书生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e7e7f5b749081a78ac4f879d126403","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">$优信(UXIN)$</a>还没加仓完，睡一觉起来都这样了，半开心半失落","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">$优信(UXIN)$</a>还没加仓完，睡一觉起来都这样了，半开心半失落","text":"$优信(UXIN)$还没加仓完，睡一觉起来都这样了，半开心半失落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393404443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393206020,"gmtCreate":1606309203360,"gmtModify":1703842454749,"author":{"id":"3503572093511944","authorId":"3503572093511944","name":"比特书生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e7e7f5b749081a78ac4f879d126403","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"优信加油，踏实走好每一步","listText":"优信加油，踏实走好每一步","text":"优信加油，踏实走好每一步","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393206020","repostId":"2086226752","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2086226752","pubTimestamp":1606290757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2086226752?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-25 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"优信口碑生态圈初显成效，NPS值将超40%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2086226752","media":"金融界网站","summary":"近日，中国最大的二手车在线商城优信集团公布，今年7-9月优信NPS值达30%，环比增长200%。据了解，2020年，优信二手车启动以NPS为驱动的产品和服务升级，在费用、车况、服务、时效4个方面共落实了24项重要升级。为了保障客户交车时效，优信还不断升级物流效率，9月较7月订单超时率下降10.6%，随着订单超时率逐月下降，NPS从7月起逐月提升，同时时效满意度也随之提升。","content":"<html><body><article><p>“您在多大程度上愿意向您的亲人和朋友推荐<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>呢？”今年4月以来，每一位在优信二手车提车的用户都被这样问过，这也是优信全面回归客户价值体现，从追求销量到追求NPS的转身。近日，中国最大的二手车在线商城优信集团公布，今年7-9月优信NPS值达30%，环比增长200%。</p><p>所谓“NPS”，即是净推荐值的英文缩写，由贝恩咨询公司客户忠诚度业务的创始人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRED\">弗雷德</a>里克·雷赫德最先提出，亦可称口碑，是一种用来计量某个用户将会向其他人推荐某家企业或某款产品可能性的指数。</p><p>“在二手车行业中，什么战略可以让企业基业长青？我们反复思考最后找到两个字：口碑。”优信创始人、董事长兼首席执行官戴琨认为，口碑是二手车行业中核心竞争力，也是最重要的企业护城河。</p><p>从2020财年第二季度财报的调研结果来看，客户对优信的正面评价占比较第一季度上升22%，正面评价里车况、服务、费用等占比明显上升，负面评价中这些项目明显降低，说明有更多消费者认可优信。</p><p>在客户满意度方面， “5v服务、交付服务”环节的满意度得分最高，“在线服务” 的满意度、“车况”及“时效”满意度紧随其后，均稳步提升。</p><p>据了解，2020年，优信二手车启动以NPS为驱动的产品和服务升级，在费用、车况、服务、时效4个方面共落实了24项重要升级。4月，优信推出清晰透明报价单，成为首个实现“价格透明”的二手车平台；5月，全站优选车源落地，升级检测标准，车源质量明显提升，因车源检测原因导致的退车、整备、以及赔偿情况均有明显改善；6月，“5V服务机制”的建立，客户在购车、提车环节享受服务的质量得到大幅提升，具体体现在客诉进线率的持续下降， 7月投诉率较4月的下降了31%；8月，车源品质继续升级，并推出时效承诺保障，超时必赔。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20201125160355952v173stsn94gtng5\"/><p>为了保障客户交车时效，优信还不断升级物流效率，9月较7月订单超时率下降10.6%，随着订单超时率逐月下降，NPS从7月起逐月提升，同时时效满意度也随之提升。</p><p>“从选车开始就体验到了优信每一位工作人员的热情服务，非常细心，对于每一个问题都回答的很有耐心，是一次非常非常满意的购车之旅，感谢每一位优信的工作人员。”来自山东滨州的宁女士10月23日在优信交了定金，11月初就收到了心心念的JEEP自由光， 一切顺利交付后，毫不吝啬地给优信工作人员好评点赞，这也是今年以来优信收获无数好评的缩影。</p><p>“我们的团队绩效考核中，最关心的值就是NPS值，也就是消费者满意度。消费者在体验优信的购车服务后，还向朋友推荐，证明他是真满意，这也给我们的工作带来成就感。”一位优信服务督导充当服务员也不亦乐乎。</p><p>优信CEO办公室负责人、公司NPS项目负责人黄先生表示，通过我们的努力，7～9月的销量也呈现上升趋势，与NPS走势一致，口碑自然转化需要时间，我们需要保持足够的耐心，继续不懈提升服务质量，为客户创造真正的价值。</p><p>“这条路和我们以前走过的路都不一样，对我们有很大的考验，考验的是我们是不是真的一家以用户为中心的公司，” 对于未来的路，戴琨信心满满，表示将继续锻造“硬实力”，扩大口碑效应，下一个小目标是NPS值达到40%，这将远远高出24.3%的行业均值。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>优信口碑生态圈初显成效，NPS值将超40%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n优信口碑生态圈初显成效，NPS值将超40%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-25 15:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202011251603577a3b2d21&s=b><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“您在多大程度上愿意向您的亲人和朋友推荐优信呢？”今年4月以来，每一位在优信二手车提车的用户都被这样问过，这也是优信全面回归客户价值体现，从追求销量到追求NPS的转身。近日，中国最大的二手车在线商城优信集团公布，今年7-9月优信NPS值达30%，环比增长200%。所谓“NPS”，即是净推荐值的英文缩写，由贝恩咨询公司客户忠诚度业务的创始人弗雷德里克·雷赫德最先提出，亦可称口碑，是一种用来计量某个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202011251603577a3b2d21&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815ae9f0ef21501327f9c8523160bdb5","relate_stocks":{"UXIN":"优信"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202011251603577a3b2d21&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2086226752","content_text":"“您在多大程度上愿意向您的亲人和朋友推荐优信呢？”今年4月以来，每一位在优信二手车提车的用户都被这样问过，这也是优信全面回归客户价值体现，从追求销量到追求NPS的转身。近日，中国最大的二手车在线商城优信集团公布，今年7-9月优信NPS值达30%，环比增长200%。所谓“NPS”，即是净推荐值的英文缩写，由贝恩咨询公司客户忠诚度业务的创始人弗雷德里克·雷赫德最先提出，亦可称口碑，是一种用来计量某个用户将会向其他人推荐某家企业或某款产品可能性的指数。“在二手车行业中，什么战略可以让企业基业长青？我们反复思考最后找到两个字：口碑。”优信创始人、董事长兼首席执行官戴琨认为，口碑是二手车行业中核心竞争力，也是最重要的企业护城河。从2020财年第二季度财报的调研结果来看，客户对优信的正面评价占比较第一季度上升22%，正面评价里车况、服务、费用等占比明显上升，负面评价中这些项目明显降低，说明有更多消费者认可优信。在客户满意度方面， “5v服务、交付服务”环节的满意度得分最高，“在线服务” 的满意度、“车况”及“时效”满意度紧随其后，均稳步提升。据了解，2020年，优信二手车启动以NPS为驱动的产品和服务升级，在费用、车况、服务、时效4个方面共落实了24项重要升级。4月，优信推出清晰透明报价单，成为首个实现“价格透明”的二手车平台；5月，全站优选车源落地，升级检测标准，车源质量明显提升，因车源检测原因导致的退车、整备、以及赔偿情况均有明显改善；6月，“5V服务机制”的建立，客户在购车、提车环节享受服务的质量得到大幅提升，具体体现在客诉进线率的持续下降， 7月投诉率较4月的下降了31%；8月，车源品质继续升级，并推出时效承诺保障，超时必赔。为了保障客户交车时效，优信还不断升级物流效率，9月较7月订单超时率下降10.6%，随着订单超时率逐月下降，NPS从7月起逐月提升，同时时效满意度也随之提升。“从选车开始就体验到了优信每一位工作人员的热情服务，非常细心，对于每一个问题都回答的很有耐心，是一次非常非常满意的购车之旅，感谢每一位优信的工作人员。”来自山东滨州的宁女士10月23日在优信交了定金，11月初就收到了心心念的JEEP自由光， 一切顺利交付后，毫不吝啬地给优信工作人员好评点赞，这也是今年以来优信收获无数好评的缩影。“我们的团队绩效考核中，最关心的值就是NPS值，也就是消费者满意度。消费者在体验优信的购车服务后，还向朋友推荐，证明他是真满意，这也给我们的工作带来成就感。”一位优信服务督导充当服务员也不亦乐乎。优信CEO办公室负责人、公司NPS项目负责人黄先生表示，通过我们的努力，7～9月的销量也呈现上升趋势，与NPS走势一致，口碑自然转化需要时间，我们需要保持足够的耐心，继续不懈提升服务质量，为客户创造真正的价值。“这条路和我们以前走过的路都不一样，对我们有很大的考验，考验的是我们是不是真的一家以用户为中心的公司，” 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当时的蔚来也是赌，大不了再输回去呗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307550505,"gmtCreate":1605605044607,"gmtModify":1703838518346,"author":{"id":"3503572093511944","authorId":"3503572093511944","name":"比特书生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e7e7f5b749081a78ac4f879d126403","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>没啥动静啊，260左右磨磨叽叽","listText":"<a 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但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！  凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战","listText":"今年环球资本市场最闪亮的星，无疑是蔚来汽车为代表的中国电动车新势力。蔚来用1年30倍的涨幅宣告，中国永远不缺商业神话，李斌这个2019年最惨的人也可以翻身。 但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！  凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战","text":"今年环球资本市场最闪亮的星，无疑是蔚来汽车为代表的中国电动车新势力。蔚来用1年30倍的涨幅宣告，中国永远不缺商业神话，李斌这个2019年最惨的人也可以翻身。 但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！ 凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e47896a2ea86f339c6fc3e90d0edb7","width":"568","height":"386"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391301777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393979051,"gmtCreate":1606228924973,"gmtModify":1703841879852,"author":{"id":"3503572093511944","authorId":"3503572093511944","name":"比特书生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e7e7f5b749081a78ac4f879d126403","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">$优信(UXIN)$</a>今晚这波下跌能不能顶住，看看小鹏","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>没啥动静啊，260左右磨磨叽叽","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$没啥动静啊，260左右磨磨叽叽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307550505","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}