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天域行者

天域行者

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06-14

我坚定的认为这是蔚来再次起飞的起点而不是终点～～～

2023-08-04

‌$蔚来(NIO)$ ‌兄弟们，买起来啊，做空机构开始搞事儿了，如果今天到了16-17，下周这些机构肯定要回购而价格预计能达到20以上‌[握手] ‌

2022-06-29

这些做空机构就是成长型企业的绊脚石，如果有一天可以像GME一样有机会拉爆这些像灰熊一样的做空机构，很乐意参与一下[得意]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-17

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ 天天增发，这就是这公司的本质

2021-02-05

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 限制买入了么

2021-02-05

$AMC院线(AMC)$ 不到一个亿的交易量，换手率还不到30%，有点反常啊，大家怎么看？

2021-02-02

$AMC院线(AMC)$ 加仓都要排队么？ [愤怒]

2020-10-01

$Yalla Group(YALA)$我就想说一句，国庆节和中秋节发行这种垃圾股，作为承销商老虎不觉得羞耻么？

2020-07-17

太可耻了，自己故意做空还公然对市场放出这种消息来误导大家，好恶意达成自己做空的目的，其心可诛！

抱歉，原内容已删除

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‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/205409630425272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274702625278","authorId":"3479274702625278","name":"老夫追涨杀跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d8be38e6bbbfa27d16721be9a4e59b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274702625278","authorIdStr":"3479274702625278"},"content":"日线好像要回调了，确定要买进去吗？","text":"日线好像要回调了，确定要买进去吗？","html":"日线好像要回调了，确定要买进去吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683725280,"gmtCreate":1656514812444,"gmtModify":1704865092795,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这些做空机构就是成长型企业的绊脚石，如果有一天可以像GME一样有机会拉爆这些像灰熊一样的做空机构，很乐意参与一下[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"这些做空机构就是成长型企业的绊脚石，如果有一天可以像GME一样有机会拉爆这些像灰熊一样的做空机构，很乐意参与一下[得意]&nbsp;","text":"这些做空机构就是成长型企业的绊脚石，如果有一天可以像GME一样有机会拉爆这些像灰熊一样的做空机构，很乐意参与一下[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683725280","repostId":"1178211858","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385560384,"gmtCreate":1613564631548,"gmtModify":1613564631548,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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天天增发，这就是这公司的本质","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385560384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574666756538310","authorId":"3574666756538310","name":"GaryD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574666756538310","authorIdStr":"3574666756538310"},"content":"当年aurora如日中天，也只会天天增发，现在不是只剩一地鸡毛，更何况是这个被炒作的毛票，不喜勿喷","text":"当年aurora如日中天，也只会天天增发，现在不是只剩一地鸡毛，更何况是这个被炒作的毛票，不喜勿喷","html":"当年aurora如日中天，也只会天天增发，现在不是只剩一地鸡毛，更何况是这个被炒作的毛票，不喜勿喷"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380369521,"gmtCreate":1612516497863,"gmtModify":1703762951279,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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加仓都要排队么？ [愤怒]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315284165","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":977640502,"gmtCreate":1601563131506,"gmtModify":1703824791448,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a>我就想说一句，国庆节和中秋节发行这种垃圾股，作为承销商老虎不觉得羞耻么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a>我就想说一句，国庆节和中秋节发行这种垃圾股，作为承销商老虎不觉得羞耻么？","text":"$Yalla 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‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/205409630425272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274702625278","authorId":"3479274702625278","name":"老夫追涨杀跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d8be38e6bbbfa27d16721be9a4e59b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274702625278","authorIdStr":"3479274702625278"},"content":"日线好像要回调了，确定要买进去吗？","text":"日线好像要回调了，确定要买进去吗？","html":"日线好像要回调了，确定要买进去吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385560384,"gmtCreate":1613564631548,"gmtModify":1613564631548,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 天天增发，这就是这公司的本质","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 天天增发，这就是这公司的本质","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ 天天增发，这就是这公司的本质","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385560384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574666756538310","authorId":"3574666756538310","name":"GaryD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574666756538310","authorIdStr":"3574666756538310"},"content":"当年aurora如日中天，也只会天天增发，现在不是只剩一地鸡毛，更何况是这个被炒作的毛票，不喜勿喷","text":"当年aurora如日中天，也只会天天增发，现在不是只剩一地鸡毛，更何况是这个被炒作的毛票，不喜勿喷","html":"当年aurora如日中天，也只会天天增发，现在不是只剩一地鸡毛，更何况是这个被炒作的毛票，不喜勿喷"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317550249,"gmtCreate":1612456942781,"gmtModify":1703762280918,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a> 不到一个亿的交易量，换手率还不到30%，有点反常啊，大家怎么看？","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a> 不到一个亿的交易量，换手率还不到30%，有点反常啊，大家怎么看？","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$ 不到一个亿的交易量，换手率还不到30%，有点反常啊，大家怎么看？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317550249","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683725280,"gmtCreate":1656514812444,"gmtModify":1704865092795,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这些做空机构就是成长型企业的绊脚石，如果有一天可以像GME一样有机会拉爆这些像灰熊一样的做空机构，很乐意参与一下[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"这些做空机构就是成长型企业的绊脚石，如果有一天可以像GME一样有机会拉爆这些像灰熊一样的做空机构，很乐意参与一下[得意]&nbsp;","text":"这些做空机构就是成长型企业的绊脚石，如果有一天可以像GME一样有机会拉爆这些像灰熊一样的做空机构，很乐意参与一下[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683725280","repostId":"1178211858","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1178211858","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656507485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178211858?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-29 20:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来被“灰熊”咬了一口，但是不疼","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178211858","media":"新熵","summary":"做空报告有部分依据，但难以对蔚来造成毁灭性打击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：白芨</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>真急了。</p><p>6月29日中午，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>汽车向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">新加坡交易所</a>递交了停牌申请。在上午的交易日中，蔚来港股的跌幅一度超过9%，截至港股收盘，蔚来股价暴跌11.36%，小鹏、理想股价都被蔚来“带进沟里”。</p><p>下跌源自大洋彼岸的一头“灰熊”的做空报告，这家做空机构正式的名称是Grizzly Research，自称专注于深入的尽职调查对上市公司进行研究。在“灰熊”官网上，用户还可以看到诸多中概股的做空报告，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LX\">乐信</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>。</p><p>28日，Grizzly Research发布报告《蔚来正在用Valeant式的财务游戏，以达到虚增收入/净利润率的目的》。</p><p>Valeant（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VRX\">凡利亚药品国际</a>）是一家加拿大制药公司，从2008年到2015年6月，Valeant的股价上涨达11倍，但在2015年被香橼曝出，Valeant控股了一批药房网络，并将药房储藏的存货确认为销售收入。这场著名的做空令Valeant市值一落千丈，到2018年，Valeant从纽交所退市。</p><p>Grizzly Research质疑，蔚来采用了类似的手段，通过超额向子公司蔚能出售电池来虚增收入，而这些电池很有可能根本未交付给蔚能，而是躺在蔚来自己的仓库里。蔚来对此全力反驳：“推测错误无根据，结论有误导性。”</p><p>“新熵”分析后认为，Grizzly Research的做空报告有部分依据，但难以像香橼击溃Valeant一样，对蔚来造成毁灭性打击。</p><p><b>蔚来，你不对劲</b></p><p>先理一下蔚来和蔚能的关系。</p><p>蔚来一直就想做换电模式，也就是用大型站点对汽车电池集中存储、充电、更换、调配。原因是，新能源汽车里，电池和车的寿命不一样，电池不到十年，车是十几年甚至几十年，用户早晚都得换；另外，换回来的旧电池也有回收价值。</p><p>在2020年，蔚来通过推出BaaS（电池即服务）实现了这个梦，方式是成立电池资产子公司蔚能，蔚来把电池包卖给蔚能，自己卖不含电池的、更便宜的电动车，用户提车后去找蔚能租电池，定期交费。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735e467ad3cb0b4373eb9f4338825f28\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>再复盘一下这头灰熊的逻辑。</p><p>我发现成立蔚能后，蔚来的收入和净利润飙升很快，超出市场预期，比如2021年，华尔街预测蔚来应该亏59.47亿元，结果只亏了30.07亿元——蔚来可能不对劲。</p><p>我发现李斌和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>造假案的关键人物刘二海关系密切，之前创业的易车网持续亏损，投资的摩拜单车挪用过用户押金——创始人的人品存疑。</p><p>我发现蔚来完全可以自己做电池资产，但蔚来让子公司干这个事，不让电池资产业务进入蔚来财务报表，但蔚能管理层是蔚来高管——可能是暗箱交易。</p><p>我发现蔚来曾与投资方合肥市签有对赌协议，要求蔚来在2024年营收额达到1200亿元，而蔚来去年只有361亿营收额——业绩压力可能让蔚来铤而走险。</p><p>我看到蔚来2021年财报、武汉蔚能电池资产有限公司2022年度第一期绿色电池资产支持票据，到2021年三季度，蔚能服务的用户是19000名，但存了40053块电池，蔚能根本不需要多余电池，一人一块完全够用——多出来的两万多块，可能是蔚来多卖给蔚能，用来粉饰财报的。</p><p>我发现找不到蔚能把电池储存在哪里——可能还在蔚来手里。</p><p>这就是整篇做空报告的主要逻辑，灰熊同时提出了一些质疑，如李斌曾将5000万股股份转让给“未来用户信托”，并将其质押给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>集团。</p><p>“新熵”认为，报告的部分依据在于，蔚来通过设立蔚能经营电池资产业务，确实有美化上市公司报表的用意，此外，由于同合肥政府对赌协议的存在，蔚来始终背负着巨大的业绩压力。从这一角度看，蔚来确实存在美化财务报表的动机。</p><p><b>灰熊咬得不疼</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f19f4f21a6cda3412a338ab19482eef\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但灰熊的报告同样有一定瑕疵。</p><p>首先是成立蔚能的目的，灰熊认为蔚能是李斌在业绩压力下，专门设立用来关联交易，夸大业绩的棋子，这与蔚来方面的表述完全相反。</p><p>蔚能总经理陆荣华曾在接受电动汽车观察家采访时表示，蔚来一开始考虑与金融机构直接合作电池资产业务，但摸索后发现需要一个中间角色打通主机厂和金融机构。在接受品驾采访时陆荣华表示，电池资产运营业务比较特殊，有一定的对外业务属性，需要配合并服务主机厂，用独立公司做更合适。</p><p>有业内人士分析，蔚来剥离蔚能的电池资产业务，与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>剥离物流业务没有本质区别，核心原因是资产模式太重，需要将业务推入市场，引入合作方分摊风险。</p><p>BaaS换电品牌的合资模式在业内有迹可循，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>曾于2019年与蚂蚁金服、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HELO\">哈啰出行</a>合资成立链轮电动车换电品牌EVOGO乐行换电。陆荣华同样表示，Baas服务领域普遍采用合资模式，蔚来只是跟随行业趋势。</p><p>这带来第二个问题，蔚能并不是蔚来的全资子公司，不是蔚来一家说了算。</p><p>按照蔚来2021年财报披露，蔚来对蔚能的持股不足20%。按照陆荣华的表述，蔚能的股东结构是“八仙过海，各显神通”，包括宁德时代、地方国资、太平保险、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002026\">山东威达</a>等等。</p><p>一位业内人士对“新熵”表示，蔚来能把蔚能当垃圾桶用，其它几大股东坐视不管，这点难以想象。</p><p>而蔚能的第一期ABN（资产支持票据）已经于4月成功发行，其资产情况在相关公告中有完整披露，内容基本涵盖了灰熊提及的财务漏洞。如果问题确实成立，蔚能的ABN融资不可能完美落幕。</p><p>最后，在合资背景下，蔚能对蔚来财务数据有美化作用，更多是附带效果，而不是目的。</p><p>一位不愿透露姓名的财务专家对“新熵”表示，灰熊的质疑有一定正确之处，在于如果蔚来自己做电池资产，以几年为期限向用户收取租电池的费用，即便蔚来已经提前拿到了用户的预付租金，其超出部分收入也要计入应收账款而非营收。而在成立蔚能后，蔚来可以直接向蔚能收取电池销售费用，并计入营收。而对买来的电池，蔚能确实要接手折旧风险。</p><p>但这并不意味着，这是蔚来独立蔚能的主要目的，前述业内人士对“新熵”表示，蔚来把换电业务放在体外，并且按权益法处理，就是要像防火墙一样隔离风险。正如报告的表述，蔚来的行为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>称之为会计诡计，算不上造假。</p><p><b>空头为何爱上蔚来？</b></p><p>这不是蔚来第一次遭到华尔街空头的迎面痛击。</p><p>2020年11月14日，知名做空机构香橼发布报告称，蔚来的股价已经脱离合理范围，股价应当“腰斩”，理由是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Model Y的低定价可能对蔚来EC6和ES6车型的订单量不利；另外，蔚来的估值畸高，其PS估值已经达到17倍，同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>PS仅为3倍左右，这使蔚来的投机者集中，背离价值投资逻辑。</p><p>结果是，蔚来股价大跌7.74%，最大跌幅一度超过16%。</p><p>此次灰熊的“二次光顾”，再度证明了蔚来的“招空头”体质。</p><p>“新熵”认为，原因首先是蔚来所处的新能源主机厂板块泡沫属性较为严重。</p><p>以特斯拉为例，从2020年开始，特斯拉被高估的声音在资本市场一直没有断绝。今年1月，Viceroy Research创始人弗雷泽·佩林发布推文称特斯拉的价值被高估10倍，理由是特斯拉的销量远不及丰田、大众等传统车企，但市值是二者之和的两倍。</p><p>显然，登陆美股市场的蔚小理也是新能源概念的受益者。</p><p>其次，蔚来采用的换电模式由于前期的高额投入成本，普遍不为市场看好。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5631f51fa5b2d46e188b41e3b81a5d50\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在此次做空报告中，灰熊就举例称，2008年，以色列企业Better Place就曾提出换电模式倡议，但在花费8.5亿美元后，Better Place不得不申请破产。特斯拉曾在2013年尝试切入换电模式，但由于营销、技术和财务原因放弃了这一计划。</p><p>从整车厂策略看，特斯拉凭借市场占有率高的优势，采用自建自营换电站模式；蔚来采用车电分离模式，将电池资产运营与上市主体隔离开来；小鹏采取合作建设充电桩模式，主要通过与第三方运营商合作建设充电网络，以追求降低运营成本。</p><p>对蔚来来说，进军自建换电站是一步险棋，尽管可以塑造品牌优势，但也面临巨大投入风险。从2020年开始，蔚来的换电站规模快速扩张，引发市场的普遍关注。某种程度上，此次灰熊对蔚来的做空，就是蔚来换电模式巨大矛盾的充分展现。</p><p>对蔚来来说，做空报告必将使管理层重新思考，在荆棘丛生的换电赛道一路狂奔，是否就是蔚来想要的未来？</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602476715181","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来被“灰熊”咬了一口，但是不疼</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来被“灰熊”咬了一口，但是不疼\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 20:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-06-29/doc-imizmscu9360151.shtml><strong>新熵</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：白芨蔚来真急了。6月29日中午，蔚来汽车向新加坡交易所递交了停牌申请。在上午的交易日中，蔚来港股的跌幅一度超过9%，截至港股收盘，蔚来股价暴跌11.36%，小鹏、理想股价都被蔚来“带进沟里”。下跌源自大洋彼岸的一头“灰熊”的做空报告，这家做空机构正式的名称是Grizzly Research，自称专注于深入的尽职调查对上市公司进行研究。在“灰熊”官网上，用户还可以看到诸多中概股的做空报告，包括...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-06-29/doc-imizmscu9360151.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9939e4191ccb45ea08d4d4e422a0f389","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-06-29/doc-imizmscu9360151.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178211858","content_text":"作者：白芨蔚来真急了。6月29日中午，蔚来汽车向新加坡交易所递交了停牌申请。在上午的交易日中，蔚来港股的跌幅一度超过9%，截至港股收盘，蔚来股价暴跌11.36%，小鹏、理想股价都被蔚来“带进沟里”。下跌源自大洋彼岸的一头“灰熊”的做空报告，这家做空机构正式的名称是Grizzly Research，自称专注于深入的尽职调查对上市公司进行研究。在“灰熊”官网上，用户还可以看到诸多中概股的做空报告，包括跟谁学、斗鱼、乐信和58同城。28日，Grizzly Research发布报告《蔚来正在用Valeant式的财务游戏，以达到虚增收入/净利润率的目的》。Valeant（凡利亚药品国际）是一家加拿大制药公司，从2008年到2015年6月，Valeant的股价上涨达11倍，但在2015年被香橼曝出，Valeant控股了一批药房网络，并将药房储藏的存货确认为销售收入。这场著名的做空令Valeant市值一落千丈，到2018年，Valeant从纽交所退市。Grizzly Research质疑，蔚来采用了类似的手段，通过超额向子公司蔚能出售电池来虚增收入，而这些电池很有可能根本未交付给蔚能，而是躺在蔚来自己的仓库里。蔚来对此全力反驳：“推测错误无根据，结论有误导性。”“新熵”分析后认为，Grizzly Research的做空报告有部分依据，但难以像香橼击溃Valeant一样，对蔚来造成毁灭性打击。蔚来，你不对劲先理一下蔚来和蔚能的关系。蔚来一直就想做换电模式，也就是用大型站点对汽车电池集中存储、充电、更换、调配。原因是，新能源汽车里，电池和车的寿命不一样，电池不到十年，车是十几年甚至几十年，用户早晚都得换；另外，换回来的旧电池也有回收价值。在2020年，蔚来通过推出BaaS（电池即服务）实现了这个梦，方式是成立电池资产子公司蔚能，蔚来把电池包卖给蔚能，自己卖不含电池的、更便宜的电动车，用户提车后去找蔚能租电池，定期交费。再复盘一下这头灰熊的逻辑。我发现成立蔚能后，蔚来的收入和净利润飙升很快，超出市场预期，比如2021年，华尔街预测蔚来应该亏59.47亿元，结果只亏了30.07亿元——蔚来可能不对劲。我发现李斌和瑞幸咖啡造假案的关键人物刘二海关系密切，之前创业的易车网持续亏损，投资的摩拜单车挪用过用户押金——创始人的人品存疑。我发现蔚来完全可以自己做电池资产，但蔚来让子公司干这个事，不让电池资产业务进入蔚来财务报表，但蔚能管理层是蔚来高管——可能是暗箱交易。我发现蔚来曾与投资方合肥市签有对赌协议，要求蔚来在2024年营收额达到1200亿元，而蔚来去年只有361亿营收额——业绩压力可能让蔚来铤而走险。我看到蔚来2021年财报、武汉蔚能电池资产有限公司2022年度第一期绿色电池资产支持票据，到2021年三季度，蔚能服务的用户是19000名，但存了40053块电池，蔚能根本不需要多余电池，一人一块完全够用——多出来的两万多块，可能是蔚来多卖给蔚能，用来粉饰财报的。我发现找不到蔚能把电池储存在哪里——可能还在蔚来手里。这就是整篇做空报告的主要逻辑，灰熊同时提出了一些质疑，如李斌曾将5000万股股份转让给“未来用户信托”，并将其质押给瑞银集团。“新熵”认为，报告的部分依据在于，蔚来通过设立蔚能经营电池资产业务，确实有美化上市公司报表的用意，此外，由于同合肥政府对赌协议的存在，蔚来始终背负着巨大的业绩压力。从这一角度看，蔚来确实存在美化财务报表的动机。灰熊咬得不疼但灰熊的报告同样有一定瑕疵。首先是成立蔚能的目的，灰熊认为蔚能是李斌在业绩压力下，专门设立用来关联交易，夸大业绩的棋子，这与蔚来方面的表述完全相反。蔚能总经理陆荣华曾在接受电动汽车观察家采访时表示，蔚来一开始考虑与金融机构直接合作电池资产业务，但摸索后发现需要一个中间角色打通主机厂和金融机构。在接受品驾采访时陆荣华表示，电池资产运营业务比较特殊，有一定的对外业务属性，需要配合并服务主机厂，用独立公司做更合适。有业内人士分析，蔚来剥离蔚能的电池资产业务，与京东剥离物流业务没有本质区别，核心原因是资产模式太重，需要将业务推入市场，引入合作方分摊风险。BaaS换电品牌的合资模式在业内有迹可循，例如宁德时代曾于2019年与蚂蚁金服、哈啰出行合资成立链轮电动车换电品牌EVOGO乐行换电。陆荣华同样表示，Baas服务领域普遍采用合资模式，蔚来只是跟随行业趋势。这带来第二个问题，蔚能并不是蔚来的全资子公司，不是蔚来一家说了算。按照蔚来2021年财报披露，蔚来对蔚能的持股不足20%。按照陆荣华的表述，蔚能的股东结构是“八仙过海，各显神通”，包括宁德时代、地方国资、太平保险、山东威达等等。一位业内人士对“新熵”表示，蔚来能把蔚能当垃圾桶用，其它几大股东坐视不管，这点难以想象。而蔚能的第一期ABN（资产支持票据）已经于4月成功发行，其资产情况在相关公告中有完整披露，内容基本涵盖了灰熊提及的财务漏洞。如果问题确实成立，蔚能的ABN融资不可能完美落幕。最后，在合资背景下，蔚能对蔚来财务数据有美化作用，更多是附带效果，而不是目的。一位不愿透露姓名的财务专家对“新熵”表示，灰熊的质疑有一定正确之处，在于如果蔚来自己做电池资产，以几年为期限向用户收取租电池的费用，即便蔚来已经提前拿到了用户的预付租金，其超出部分收入也要计入应收账款而非营收。而在成立蔚能后，蔚来可以直接向蔚能收取电池销售费用，并计入营收。而对买来的电池，蔚能确实要接手折旧风险。但这并不意味着，这是蔚来独立蔚能的主要目的，前述业内人士对“新熵”表示，蔚来把换电业务放在体外，并且按权益法处理，就是要像防火墙一样隔离风险。正如报告的表述，蔚来的行为智能称之为会计诡计，算不上造假。空头为何爱上蔚来？这不是蔚来第一次遭到华尔街空头的迎面痛击。2020年11月14日，知名做空机构香橼发布报告称，蔚来的股价已经脱离合理范围，股价应当“腰斩”，理由是，特斯拉Model Y的低定价可能对蔚来EC6和ES6车型的订单量不利；另外，蔚来的估值畸高，其PS估值已经达到17倍，同期比亚迪PS仅为3倍左右，这使蔚来的投机者集中，背离价值投资逻辑。结果是，蔚来股价大跌7.74%，最大跌幅一度超过16%。此次灰熊的“二次光顾”，再度证明了蔚来的“招空头”体质。“新熵”认为，原因首先是蔚来所处的新能源主机厂板块泡沫属性较为严重。以特斯拉为例，从2020年开始，特斯拉被高估的声音在资本市场一直没有断绝。今年1月，Viceroy Research创始人弗雷泽·佩林发布推文称特斯拉的价值被高估10倍，理由是特斯拉的销量远不及丰田、大众等传统车企，但市值是二者之和的两倍。显然，登陆美股市场的蔚小理也是新能源概念的受益者。其次，蔚来采用的换电模式由于前期的高额投入成本，普遍不为市场看好。在此次做空报告中，灰熊就举例称，2008年，以色列企业Better Place就曾提出换电模式倡议，但在花费8.5亿美元后，Better Place不得不申请破产。特斯拉曾在2013年尝试切入换电模式，但由于营销、技术和财务原因放弃了这一计划。从整车厂策略看，特斯拉凭借市场占有率高的优势，采用自建自营换电站模式；蔚来采用车电分离模式，将电池资产运营与上市主体隔离开来；小鹏采取合作建设充电桩模式，主要通过与第三方运营商合作建设充电网络，以追求降低运营成本。对蔚来来说，进军自建换电站是一步险棋，尽管可以塑造品牌优势，但也面临巨大投入风险。从2020年开始，蔚来的换电站规模快速扩张，引发市场的普遍关注。某种程度上，此次灰熊对蔚来的做空，就是蔚来换电模式巨大矛盾的充分展现。对蔚来来说，做空报告必将使管理层重新思考，在荆棘丛生的换电赛道一路狂奔，是否就是蔚来想要的未来？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":977640502,"gmtCreate":1601563131506,"gmtModify":1703824791448,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a>我就想说一句，国庆节和中秋节发行这种垃圾股，作为承销商老虎不觉得羞耻么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a>我就想说一句，国庆节和中秋节发行这种垃圾股，作为承销商老虎不觉得羞耻么？","text":"$Yalla Group(YALA)$我就想说一句，国庆节和中秋节发行这种垃圾股，作为承销商老虎不觉得羞耻么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977640502","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941412130,"gmtCreate":1594991185620,"gmtModify":1704207696633,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太可耻了，自己故意做空还公然对市场放出这种消息来误导大家，好恶意达成自己做空的目的，其心可诛！","listText":"太可耻了，自己故意做空还公然对市场放出这种消息来误导大家，好恶意达成自己做空的目的，其心可诛！","text":"太可耻了，自己故意做空还公然对市场放出这种消息来误导大家，好恶意达成自己做空的目的，其心可诛！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941412130","repostId":"1123241766","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123241766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1594987576,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123241766?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-17 20:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来盘前股价“跳水”，高盛降其评级至“卖出”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123241766","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月17日，$蔚来(NIO)$盘前股价出现跳水，一度跌超8%。\n\n$高盛(GS)$宣布，将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示，在过去的一个月里，蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%，导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。","content":"<p>7月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前股价出现跳水，一度跌超8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>宣布，将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示，在过去的一个月里，蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%，导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3921145b78917ba3f1524da15f0ec33\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来盘前股价“跳水”，高盛降其评级至“卖出”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来盘前股价“跳水”，高盛降其评级至“卖出”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-17 20:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前股价出现跳水，一度跌超8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>宣布，将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示，在过去的一个月里，蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%，导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3921145b78917ba3f1524da15f0ec33\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090cc485ea4ba6d267489389e83608b","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123241766","content_text":"7月17日，蔚来盘前股价出现跳水，一度跌超8%。高盛宣布，将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示，在过去的一个月里，蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%，导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316506718646552,"gmtCreate":1718299910936,"gmtModify":1718299913270,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我坚定的认为这是蔚来再次起飞的起点而不是终点～～～","listText":"我坚定的认为这是蔚来再次起飞的起点而不是终点～～～","text":"我坚定的认为这是蔚来再次起飞的起点而不是终点～～～","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316506718646552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380369521,"gmtCreate":1612516497863,"gmtModify":1703762951279,"author":{"id":"3499399774354427","authorId":"3499399774354427","name":"天域行者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f698cd01ba15c41c6ba971ffa9a010","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499399774354427","authorIdStr":"3499399774354427"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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