Gamer的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Gamer

Gamer

资深程序员

IP属地：未知

95关注

17粉丝

8主题

0勋章

2021-01-29

$New Concept Energy Inc(GBR)$太满了

2020-07-28

$台积电(TSM)$两个多月盈利50%

2020-11-18

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$已抄底

2020-02-28

$Co-diagnostics Inc.(CODX)$$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$满仓这两个

2020-02-07

$吉利德科学(GILD)$等大队长出现黑天鹅事件

2020-07-24

$直觉外科公司(ISRG)$盈利14.39%

2020-02-28

$联合保健产品(AHPI)$$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$$Repro Med Systems, Inc.(KRMD)$$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$$快而精医药(QGEN)$同系列

2020-11-24

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$空

2020-05-02

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$🙃

2020-02-12

$微软(MSFT)$触底反弹了

2020-02-11

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$还能涨，因为没有空单了

2020-11-17

$Viatris Inc.(VTRS)$Viatris Logo发布！辉瑞普强和迈蓝Q4完成合并！http://wemr.club/companies/viatris-logo-20200710.html

2021-01-29

$New Concept Energy Inc(GBR)$这时候应该高位做空啊兄弟们；跟着做多最后亏得裤子不剩

2020-11-21

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$黑暗即将过去

2020-08-23

打起来打起来

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-08-01

$高通(QCOM)$[捂脸]

2020-04-30

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$到底之后该涨了

2020-02-28

$联合保健产品(AHPI)$还有$Altimmune, Inc.(ALT)$

2020-02-22

$美国能源(USEG)$石油都在涨你不涨点吗$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2021-01-07

$未来金融科技(FTFT)$今天怎么了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>字节跳动：正式起诉特朗普政府</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n字节跳动：正式起诉特朗普政府\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-23 11:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据字节跳动微信公众号消息，字节跳动今日发布声明，将于美国时间8月24日（北京时间8月25日）正式起诉特朗普政府。</p><p>另据新浪科技报道，TikTok正在做最坏的打算，以确保即使该应用在美国被关停，其员工也能继续获得报酬。这说明，字节跳动在起诉美国政府的同时，也在积极准备“关停预案”。</p><p>字节跳动方面表示：\"近一年来，我们怀着真诚的态度，寻求跟美国政府沟通，针对他们所提出的顾虑提供解决方案。但美国政府罔顾事实，不遵循正当法律程序，甚至试图强行介入商业公司谈判。为确保法治不被摒弃，确保公司和用户获得公正的对待，我们将通过诉讼维护权益。\"</p><p>TikTok在美国拥有超过1亿用户，1500多员工，以及数千家合作伙伴。如果关停TikTok美国业务，按照此前市场传闻200至500亿美金的出售价格，字节跳动将至少损失超过两千亿元。</p><p>除去官方诉讼，字节跳动的美国员工，也在自行发起针对特朗普的诉讼。代表员工提起诉讼的互联网政策律师迈克·戈德温(Mike Godwin)表示，特朗普的禁令属于行政越权，会损害TikTok美国公司员工的宪法权利。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2444d29a56e1276efb83315ee54ae738\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1639\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372fbf0bfc409e2639ac035d71f6498c","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133252613","content_text":"据字节跳动微信公众号消息，字节跳动今日发布声明，将于美国时间8月24日（北京时间8月25日）正式起诉特朗普政府。另据新浪科技报道，TikTok正在做最坏的打算，以确保即使该应用在美国被关停，其员工也能继续获得报酬。这说明，字节跳动在起诉美国政府的同时，也在积极准备“关停预案”。字节跳动方面表示：\"近一年来，我们怀着真诚的态度，寻求跟美国政府沟通，针对他们所提出的顾虑提供解决方案。但美国政府罔顾事实，不遵循正当法律程序，甚至试图强行介入商业公司谈判。为确保法治不被摒弃，确保公司和用户获得公正的对待，我们将通过诉讼维护权益。\"TikTok在美国拥有超过1亿用户，1500多员工，以及数千家合作伙伴。如果关停TikTok美国业务，按照此前市场传闻200至500亿美金的出售价格，字节跳动将至少损失超过两千亿元。除去官方诉讼，字节跳动的美国员工，也在自行发起针对特朗普的诉讼。代表员工提起诉讼的互联网政策律师迈克·戈德温(Mike Godwin)表示，特朗普的禁令属于行政越权，会损害TikTok美国公司员工的宪法权利。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945166500,"gmtCreate":1596474702900,"gmtModify":1704212387167,"author":{"id":"3499224038426571","authorId":"3499224038426571","name":"Gamer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd3e6b1ae39e1c00eb0b3f082baec4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>😏","listText":"<a 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Inc(SHOP)$这货还不跌吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924322042","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922275011,"gmtCreate":1587573097633,"gmtModify":1704364852954,"author":{"id":"3499224038426571","authorId":"3499224038426571","name":"Gamer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd3e6b1ae39e1c00eb0b3f082baec4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"更多的是人为导致的惨案","listText":"更多的是人为导致的惨案","text":"更多的是人为导致的惨案","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922275011","repostId":"1190471257","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190471257","pubTimestamp":1587564970,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190471257?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-22 22:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"逼死多头！上世纪90年代初油价崩跌出现过历史最大惨案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190471257","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"导读：原油市场从来都不缺故事。先是新加坡“油王”林恩强的石油贸易集团破产，再是美油期货破天荒地跌成负数...在油价暴跌成负数的高风险环境里，请务必牢记巴菲特的那句警世箴言：“衍生品是大规模杀伤性金融武","content":"<p><i><span>导读：原油市场从来都不缺故事。先是新加坡“油王”林恩强的石油贸易集团破产，再是美油期货破天荒地跌成负数...</span></i></p><p><span>在油价暴跌成负数的高风险环境里，请务必牢记巴菲特的那句警世箴言：“</span><span><b>衍生品是大规模杀伤性金融武器，具有潜在的致命危险。”</b></span></p><p><span>这不是空穴来风，而是有血淋淋的教训写在史书里。其中，</span><span><b>最沉痛的案例来自于上世纪叱咤风云的德国工业巨头德国金属</b></span><span>（Metallgesellschaft AG）。</span></p><p><span>首席执行官亨兹·希梅尔布什（Heinz C. Schimmelbusch）1989年上任时年仅44岁，是公司最年轻的CEO。他通过一系列收购带领德国金属走上了巅峰。公司年销售额高达170亿美元，全球雇员超过5万人，拥有258家子公司，横跨铜、锌、炸药、能源等多种商品领域，股东包括戴姆勒·奔驰、科威特投资局、德国安联等。</span></p><p><span>虽然体量变得越来越庞大，但德国金属有一个弱点：其核心盈利部门金属业务容易受到东欧廉价进口产品的冲击。</span></p><p><span>为了弥补这一点，德国金属通过位于美国的精炼与营销公司（MGRM）进入原油市场。九十年代初，该公司以包含特殊条款的、颇为激进的十年期固定价格合同向客户出售原油。同时，通过在原油期货及衍生品市场来对冲油价变动风险。</span></p><p><span>1993年临近冬天，油价意外暴跌，直接导致这家德国百年工业巨头的原油期货和衍生品交易巨亏逾23亿德国马克（约合13亿美元），险些破产倒闭。</span><span><b>这被市场普遍认为是现代原油交易史上最大的亏损案例。</b></span></p><p><span>悲剧发生后，公司管理层几乎被集体扫地出门，包括首席执行官亨兹·希梅尔布什。</span></p><p><span>自此，</span><span><b>德国金属巨额衍生品亏损事件成为各大金融学教材与研究论文中关于衍生品风险管理与控制章节的经典案例</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>多年以来</span></b><span>，</span><span><b>金融界对于此事争论不休，包括他们“堆叠式”对冲策略究竟是套期保值还是投机</b></span><span>。诺贝尔经济学奖得主Merton H. Miller等人认为，这一策略被迫退出清算得太早了。也有人认为它有可能奏效，但需要母公司提供非常可观的资金支持。</span></p><p><b><span>01、独特的现货供应合同</span></b></p><p><span>从1991年开始，德国金属从路易达孚能源公司挖来了W·亚瑟•本森(W. Arthur Benson)，委任他为MGRM总裁兼首席原油交易员，从而将业务扩展到了衍生品领域。很快，亚瑟•本森就设计出了一套独特的能源交易模式。</span></p><p><span>1992年，MGRM推出了大量形式多样的长期能源供应合同。最受欢迎的一种是最长期限可达10年的合同，公司每个月都以固定价格向客户提供固定数量的现货。这个固定价格就是比签订合同时的现货价格高3-5美元/桶。</span></p><p><b><span>这种固定价格长期供货合同的最独特之处在于：它其中的一个条款给了客户选择权，客户可以一些特定情况下选择提前终止合同。</span></b></p><p><span>如果市面上的油价高于合同上的固定供货价，客户可以选择提前解约，把合同上尚未交付的货卖回给MGRM，而MGRM则给客户支付现金，金额就是近月期货合约价格减去固定供货价之差的一半。</span></p><p><b><span>显然，这样可进可退的合同很为客户着想。</span></b><span>对于许多加油站和小企业主来说，他们基本没有与大型石油公司议价的能力。而MGRM的这种特殊供货合同对他们来说很有吸引力，可以消除油价剧烈波动的风险，还能有机会赚差价。</span></p><p><span>因此，虽然十年的期限非常惊人，但由于它消除风险、给予选择权的特征，这种合同一经推出就广受欢迎。到1993年9月，MGRM的长期供货合同累计相当于1.6亿桶原油。</span></p><p><span>绝大多数合同也正是在1993年夏天签署的，当时油价很便宜，而且在下跌。终端用户很乐于签这种合同，毕竟油价未来可能上涨，现在就锁定低油价当然好了。</span></p><p><span>MGRM为了在美国市场的长足发展策略，也希望用这种形式抓住客户，维持长期合作关系。他们还收购了一家美国原油开采公司，保证了一部分货品供应。</span></p><p><b><span>02、“堆叠”式对冲</span></b></p><p><span>帮助客户消除的风险实质上由德国金属自己承担了。</span></p><p><span>很明显，</span><span><b>这种固定价格长期供货合同让MGRM面临一种风险</b></span><span>：</span><span><b>一旦油价上涨，他们给客户供货的利润就会被侵蚀。即使客户选择提前解约，他们也要遵守合同预定给客户付差价。</b></span></p><p><b><span>为了对冲油价上涨的风险，MGRM在金融市场上采用了一种“堆叠”式对冲策略</span></b><span>（stack hedging strategy）。</span></p><p><span>由于固定价格长期供货合同与期货近月合约挂钩，MGRM几乎将所有用于对冲风险的做多仓位都“堆积”在近月合约上。同时，还与银行等大型经纪商合作，利用场外掉期合约来对冲风险。</span></p><p><span>在1993年第四季度之前，MGRM合计持有55000张期货多头合约，覆盖原油、取暖油和天然气，当时相当于5500万桶。他们持有的场外掉期合约相当于1亿至1.1亿桶之间。这些仓位都与其固定价格长期供应合同1.6亿桶的供货量相对应。</span></p><p><b><span>03、厄运来了</span></b></p><p><span>可以很明显地看出MGRM对冲策略的特点：将对冲仓位高度集中在近月合约上，场外掉期合约的期限也很短，公司必须不断地定期滚动展期，几乎每个月都要操作。</span></p><p><span>从常规的避险和风控角度判断，“堆叠”式对冲策略原本无可厚非，只要现货油价在一个月的持有期内维持稳定或上涨，市场处于backwardation结构（即现货价高于期货价、近月期货合约高于远月期货合约），这种组合就能实现对冲风险的目的，甚至有盈利。</span></p><p><span>在这里，市场结构至关重要。如果要实现展期盈利，原油市场必须保持backwardation结构。一旦反转为完全相反的contango结构，对冲组合就会亏损。</span></p><p><span>1993年深秋，悲剧发生了。</span></p><p><span>油价大幅下跌，从6月的19美元跌至年底的不足15美元，累计跌超20%。</span><span><b>这导致MGRM必须以更高价格进行移仓换月，而以更低价格卖出近月合约持仓。</b></span></p><p><b><span>而且</span></b><span>，</span><span><b>原油市场结构因为油价下跌的幅度太大而完全颠倒，变成了contango结构</b></span><span>。MGRM持有的NYMEX原油近月合约本身也没有对冲，因为他们推测油价会涨，但油价却意外下跌，导致这部分仓位也出现浮亏。</span></p><p><b><span>由于对冲组合出现大量亏损，MGRM需要追加巨额保证金。</span></b></p><p><b><span>04、时运不济</span></b></p><p><span>在这样的关键时刻，MGRM计划申请额外的3.5亿美元信贷融资，以弥补期货及衍生品市场的亏损。但他们惊讶地发现，无论是天时还是人和，都事与愿违，他们陷入了意想不到的困境。</span></p><p><span>从某些角度来说，追加保证金来得太不是时候了。</span></p><p><span>德国金属的财务年度截止于每年9月30日，按照当时的监管规定，他们必须披露美国子公司MGRM的账面亏损情况，而且期货浮亏必须体现在财务报表里，但尚未实现的未来浮盈则不能予以确认。</span></p><p><span>1993年12月初，这些财务数据被各大媒体争相刊登在头版醒目位置，迅速放大了他们的原油期货及衍生品浮亏问题，投资者和股东陷入恐慌，德国金属的信用评级被下调，从而给公司带来巨大压力。</span></p><p><span>公司最大的贷款机构和最大股东德意志银行被吓坏了，非但没有施以援手，反而釜底抽薪，立即以信贷风险为由对他们关闭了信贷窗口，还强烈要求MGRM出清期货及衍生品头寸。</span></p><p><b><span>至此，衍生品账面浮亏变成了白底红字的财务亏损。根据德国金属发布的声明，亏损额达到13.7亿美元。很快，它演变成了一场巨大的流动性危机</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>当月，德国金属的股东以德意志银行和监事会牵头，对事件进行紧急调查后迅速决定：解除包括亨兹·希梅尔布什在内的领导团队，更换了一支新的管理团队来处理危机，包括终止其长期固定价格销售合同，将所有原油头寸全部斩仓，而且清仓速度非常快。</span></p><p><span>德国金属的股票在1994年1月6日被迫停牌。</span></p><p><span>五年后，德国金属将“闯祸的孩子”MGRM公司一分为二，一半改头换面以MG PLC的名称在伦敦上市，另外一半卖给了安然（Enron）。</span></p><p><b><span>05、谁该负责？</span></b></p><p><span>德意志银行指责德国金属在原油市场行为鲁莽、不顾后果，要求作为负责人的亨兹·希梅尔布什下台。</span></p><p><b><span>针对亨兹·希梅尔布什的指责与几年后人们针对安然高管的指控如出一辙。他们都被指控批准了一系列令董事会和投资者难以理解的交易策略，并隐瞒交易损失。</span></b></p><p><span>而亨兹·希梅尔布什和W·亚瑟•本森在此后多年间在欧美数次起诉德意志银行，说银行破坏了他们的交易策略，使得公司发生了实质性亏损，而原本亏损只是账面浮亏，公司有能力挽回损失。</span></p><p><span>本森认为，如果德意志银行没有撤资，没有解雇他，没有任命一名在期货及衍生品方面毫无经验的交易员来清盘，“MGRM就会实现数亿美元的正现金流”，德国金属也永远不会崩溃。</span></p><p><span>有媒体评论说：在金融市场上，理论是一回事，但债权人面临巨额亏损的现实又是另外一回事。债权人往往会迫使债务人在准备就绪弥补亏损之前要求出清头寸，继而使后者不得不为此付出巨大的代价。</span></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>逼死多头！上世纪90年代初油价崩跌出现过历史最大惨案</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n逼死多头！上世纪90年代初油价崩跌出现过历史最大惨案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-22 22:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/d_cRbCtvf6Rv06mcv-l1lw><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导读：原油市场从来都不缺故事。先是新加坡“油王”林恩强的石油贸易集团破产，再是美油期货破天荒地跌成负数...在油价暴跌成负数的高风险环境里，请务必牢记巴菲特的那句警世箴言：“衍生品是大规模杀伤性金融武器，具有潜在的致命危险。”这不是空穴来风，而是有血淋淋的教训写在史书里。其中，最沉痛的案例来自于上世纪叱咤风云的德国工业巨头德国金属（Metallgesellschaft AG）。首席执行官亨兹·...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/d_cRbCtvf6Rv06mcv-l1lw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/d_cRbCtvf6Rv06mcv-l1lw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1190471257","content_text":"导读：原油市场从来都不缺故事。先是新加坡“油王”林恩强的石油贸易集团破产，再是美油期货破天荒地跌成负数...在油价暴跌成负数的高风险环境里，请务必牢记巴菲特的那句警世箴言：“衍生品是大规模杀伤性金融武器，具有潜在的致命危险。”这不是空穴来风，而是有血淋淋的教训写在史书里。其中，最沉痛的案例来自于上世纪叱咤风云的德国工业巨头德国金属（Metallgesellschaft AG）。首席执行官亨兹·希梅尔布什（Heinz C. Schimmelbusch）1989年上任时年仅44岁，是公司最年轻的CEO。他通过一系列收购带领德国金属走上了巅峰。公司年销售额高达170亿美元，全球雇员超过5万人，拥有258家子公司，横跨铜、锌、炸药、能源等多种商品领域，股东包括戴姆勒·奔驰、科威特投资局、德国安联等。虽然体量变得越来越庞大，但德国金属有一个弱点：其核心盈利部门金属业务容易受到东欧廉价进口产品的冲击。为了弥补这一点，德国金属通过位于美国的精炼与营销公司（MGRM）进入原油市场。九十年代初，该公司以包含特殊条款的、颇为激进的十年期固定价格合同向客户出售原油。同时，通过在原油期货及衍生品市场来对冲油价变动风险。1993年临近冬天，油价意外暴跌，直接导致这家德国百年工业巨头的原油期货和衍生品交易巨亏逾23亿德国马克（约合13亿美元），险些破产倒闭。这被市场普遍认为是现代原油交易史上最大的亏损案例。悲剧发生后，公司管理层几乎被集体扫地出门，包括首席执行官亨兹·希梅尔布什。自此，德国金属巨额衍生品亏损事件成为各大金融学教材与研究论文中关于衍生品风险管理与控制章节的经典案例。多年以来，金融界对于此事争论不休，包括他们“堆叠式”对冲策略究竟是套期保值还是投机。诺贝尔经济学奖得主Merton H. Miller等人认为，这一策略被迫退出清算得太早了。也有人认为它有可能奏效，但需要母公司提供非常可观的资金支持。01、独特的现货供应合同从1991年开始，德国金属从路易达孚能源公司挖来了W·亚瑟•本森(W. Arthur Benson)，委任他为MGRM总裁兼首席原油交易员，从而将业务扩展到了衍生品领域。很快，亚瑟•本森就设计出了一套独特的能源交易模式。1992年，MGRM推出了大量形式多样的长期能源供应合同。最受欢迎的一种是最长期限可达10年的合同，公司每个月都以固定价格向客户提供固定数量的现货。这个固定价格就是比签订合同时的现货价格高3-5美元/桶。这种固定价格长期供货合同的最独特之处在于：它其中的一个条款给了客户选择权，客户可以一些特定情况下选择提前终止合同。如果市面上的油价高于合同上的固定供货价，客户可以选择提前解约，把合同上尚未交付的货卖回给MGRM，而MGRM则给客户支付现金，金额就是近月期货合约价格减去固定供货价之差的一半。显然，这样可进可退的合同很为客户着想。对于许多加油站和小企业主来说，他们基本没有与大型石油公司议价的能力。而MGRM的这种特殊供货合同对他们来说很有吸引力，可以消除油价剧烈波动的风险，还能有机会赚差价。因此，虽然十年的期限非常惊人，但由于它消除风险、给予选择权的特征，这种合同一经推出就广受欢迎。到1993年9月，MGRM的长期供货合同累计相当于1.6亿桶原油。绝大多数合同也正是在1993年夏天签署的，当时油价很便宜，而且在下跌。终端用户很乐于签这种合同，毕竟油价未来可能上涨，现在就锁定低油价当然好了。MGRM为了在美国市场的长足发展策略，也希望用这种形式抓住客户，维持长期合作关系。他们还收购了一家美国原油开采公司，保证了一部分货品供应。02、“堆叠”式对冲帮助客户消除的风险实质上由德国金属自己承担了。很明显，这种固定价格长期供货合同让MGRM面临一种风险：一旦油价上涨，他们给客户供货的利润就会被侵蚀。即使客户选择提前解约，他们也要遵守合同预定给客户付差价。为了对冲油价上涨的风险，MGRM在金融市场上采用了一种“堆叠”式对冲策略（stack hedging strategy）。由于固定价格长期供货合同与期货近月合约挂钩，MGRM几乎将所有用于对冲风险的做多仓位都“堆积”在近月合约上。同时，还与银行等大型经纪商合作，利用场外掉期合约来对冲风险。在1993年第四季度之前，MGRM合计持有55000张期货多头合约，覆盖原油、取暖油和天然气，当时相当于5500万桶。他们持有的场外掉期合约相当于1亿至1.1亿桶之间。这些仓位都与其固定价格长期供应合同1.6亿桶的供货量相对应。03、厄运来了可以很明显地看出MGRM对冲策略的特点：将对冲仓位高度集中在近月合约上，场外掉期合约的期限也很短，公司必须不断地定期滚动展期，几乎每个月都要操作。从常规的避险和风控角度判断，“堆叠”式对冲策略原本无可厚非，只要现货油价在一个月的持有期内维持稳定或上涨，市场处于backwardation结构（即现货价高于期货价、近月期货合约高于远月期货合约），这种组合就能实现对冲风险的目的，甚至有盈利。在这里，市场结构至关重要。如果要实现展期盈利，原油市场必须保持backwardation结构。一旦反转为完全相反的contango结构，对冲组合就会亏损。1993年深秋，悲剧发生了。油价大幅下跌，从6月的19美元跌至年底的不足15美元，累计跌超20%。这导致MGRM必须以更高价格进行移仓换月，而以更低价格卖出近月合约持仓。而且，原油市场结构因为油价下跌的幅度太大而完全颠倒，变成了contango结构。MGRM持有的NYMEX原油近月合约本身也没有对冲，因为他们推测油价会涨，但油价却意外下跌，导致这部分仓位也出现浮亏。由于对冲组合出现大量亏损，MGRM需要追加巨额保证金。04、时运不济在这样的关键时刻，MGRM计划申请额外的3.5亿美元信贷融资，以弥补期货及衍生品市场的亏损。但他们惊讶地发现，无论是天时还是人和，都事与愿违，他们陷入了意想不到的困境。从某些角度来说，追加保证金来得太不是时候了。德国金属的财务年度截止于每年9月30日，按照当时的监管规定，他们必须披露美国子公司MGRM的账面亏损情况，而且期货浮亏必须体现在财务报表里，但尚未实现的未来浮盈则不能予以确认。1993年12月初，这些财务数据被各大媒体争相刊登在头版醒目位置，迅速放大了他们的原油期货及衍生品浮亏问题，投资者和股东陷入恐慌，德国金属的信用评级被下调，从而给公司带来巨大压力。公司最大的贷款机构和最大股东德意志银行被吓坏了，非但没有施以援手，反而釜底抽薪，立即以信贷风险为由对他们关闭了信贷窗口，还强烈要求MGRM出清期货及衍生品头寸。至此，衍生品账面浮亏变成了白底红字的财务亏损。根据德国金属发布的声明，亏损额达到13.7亿美元。很快，它演变成了一场巨大的流动性危机。当月，德国金属的股东以德意志银行和监事会牵头，对事件进行紧急调查后迅速决定：解除包括亨兹·希梅尔布什在内的领导团队，更换了一支新的管理团队来处理危机，包括终止其长期固定价格销售合同，将所有原油头寸全部斩仓，而且清仓速度非常快。德国金属的股票在1994年1月6日被迫停牌。五年后，德国金属将“闯祸的孩子”MGRM公司一分为二，一半改头换面以MG PLC的名称在伦敦上市，另外一半卖给了安然（Enron）。05、谁该负责？德意志银行指责德国金属在原油市场行为鲁莽、不顾后果，要求作为负责人的亨兹·希梅尔布什下台。针对亨兹·希梅尔布什的指责与几年后人们针对安然高管的指控如出一辙。他们都被指控批准了一系列令董事会和投资者难以理解的交易策略，并隐瞒交易损失。而亨兹·希梅尔布什和W·亚瑟•本森在此后多年间在欧美数次起诉德意志银行，说银行破坏了他们的交易策略，使得公司发生了实质性亏损，而原本亏损只是账面浮亏，公司有能力挽回损失。本森认为，如果德意志银行没有撤资，没有解雇他，没有任命一名在期货及衍生品方面毫无经验的交易员来清盘，“MGRM就会实现数亿美元的正现金流”，德国金属也永远不会崩溃。有媒体评论说：在金融市场上，理论是一回事，但债权人面临巨额亏损的现实又是另外一回事。债权人往往会迫使债务人在准备就绪弥补亏损之前要求出清头寸，继而使后者不得不为此付出巨大的代价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921141322,"gmtCreate":1586201534466,"gmtModify":1704360374375,"author":{"id":"3499224038426571","authorId":"3499224038426571","name":"Gamer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd3e6b1ae39e1c00eb0b3f082baec4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a>一路高歌猛进吗","listText":"<a 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