股晟的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2022-03-09

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$不到10块坚决不买它

2022-03-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$还要暴跌啊，现在只是开始，核污染都开始了呢

2022-02-24

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$今晚集体砸盘，让美股跌半吧！

2021-12-04

$苹果(AAPL)$早晚会跌到2美金

2021-12-04

$拼多多(PDD)$5美金都嫌多

2021-12-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$不到10美金，我们不上车

2021-12-04

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$美股彻底崩盘了

2021-12-04

美股大概率出现金融危机

美银：2022年美国股市料降温，如何抵御通胀？

2021-12-04

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$美股彻底崩盘吧！咋们集体砸盘

2021-01-17

境界不够高，眼里只有放贷，这家伙江湖气大于企业管理水平

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 砸到100吧

2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 是爱国的都使劲砸吧！

2020-09-09

暴跌还在后面！

2020-04-14

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 有没有可能财务造假？

2020-04-03

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 难道这家伙也财务造假吗？

2020-04-03

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 3000点

2020-04-03

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 2块？

2020-04-03

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 还有一波暴跌

2020-04-02

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 只值5毛钱

2020-03-24

$趣店(QD)$ 最近翻倍了，注意风险啊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>不到10美金，我们不上车","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$不到10美金，我们不上车","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608036599","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608036841,"gmtCreate":1638579921781,"gmtModify":1638581085926,"author":{"id":"3497833678624198","authorId":"3497833678624198","name":"股晟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9093e0316651e87f205d2f208d364eba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497833678624198","authorIdStr":"3497833678624198"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>美股彻底崩盘了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>美股彻底崩盘了","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$美股彻底崩盘了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608036841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601474327,"gmtCreate":1638553086892,"gmtModify":1638555713007,"author":{"id":"3497833678624198","authorId":"3497833678624198","name":"股晟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9093e0316651e87f205d2f208d364eba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497833678624198","authorIdStr":"3497833678624198"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股大概率出现金融危机","listText":"美股大概率出现金融危机","text":"美股大概率出现金融危机","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601474327","repostId":"1105966648","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105966648","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1638495184,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105966648?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 09:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银：2022年美国股市料降温，如何抵御通胀？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105966648","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美国银行策略师表示，随着通胀上升和消费下降，未来一年美国股市将难以满足人们极高的期望。\n美银为标普500指数设定的2022年目标点位为4600点，较周三收盘点位4513.04点高约1.9%，但该目标位","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>策略师表示，随着通胀上升和消费下降，未来一年美国股市将难以满足人们极高的期望。</p>\n<p>美银为标普500指数设定的2022年目标点位为4600点，较周三收盘点位4513.04点高约1.9%，但该目标位在华尔街中仍属于最低水平之一，这意味着该指数将在当前水平附近停滞不前，并且可能遭遇2018年以来首个下跌年。</p>\n<p>受新冠变异病毒奥密克戎毒株扩散以及美联储主席鲍威尔意外发表鹰派言论的影响，标普500指数在过去四个交易日中有三日下跌，较11月22日高点已回撤约4.8%，年初迄今涨幅收窄至20.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fffe58e4ce25feeea0152745a1bb27a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>美银股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian在周一一场网络研讨会上称：“我们的标普500指数10年回报长期预测模型一直具有很强的预测性，现在（模型）显示未来10年股票的回报将为负。上一次出现这种情况是在1999至2000年。”</p>\n<p>美银认为，鉴于股市估值处于历史高位，而盈利增速在疫后复苏阶段触顶，进入2022年，股票的风险回报看起来不太稳定。该行预计明年盈利将增长6.5%，远低于11%的长期中值。</p>\n<p>该行表示：“今天的市场市盈率只有在标普500指数下跌40%或盈利增长70%的情况下才有意义。所以，我们发现市场处在一个非常难以为继的位置。”</p>\n<p>但也有乐观的理由。Subramanian指出，明年股息预计将增长13%——为历史中值的两倍；在过去一个世纪里，股息占了市场回报的近三分之一。她表示，未来10年，股息将变得越加重要，尤其是在回报疲软的情况下。</p>\n<p><b>//&nbsp; 2022年通胀投资建议&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>美国通胀率现已达到30年来高点，并且开始冲击消费者钱包。美银预计，未来两年美国通胀率将处在3%左右的高位，远高于金融危机以来的水平。</p>\n<p>通胀居高不下已经引起鲍威尔的担忧。他在本周国会证词中表示，是时候放弃“暂时性”通胀的说法了，美联储可能在12月的会议上讨论是否比预期提前几个月结束购债。鲍威尔称，高通胀预计要到2022年下半年才会缓解。</p>\n<p>Subramanian说，通胀可能会高于过去10年的水平，“我们认为这可能是投资者未必准备好应对的领域”。</p>\n<p>对于被物价压力搞得措手不及的投资者，Subramanian给出的建议是可以购买这两类股票：收益率免受通胀影响的股票，以及资本支出的受益者。</p>\n<p>股息稳定增长且收益率超过6%（美国10月CPI通胀率为6.2%）的股票符合第一类。第二类股票则将受益于即将到来的机器和自动化领域的资本支出热潮，美国已经历了多年的长期投资不足，Subramanian称。她补充说，以服务为导向的股票符合这一模式，应该会在2022年反弹，而侧重商品的股票在经历强劲的一年之后将会回落。</p>\n<p>有鉴于此，美银认为，能源、金融和医疗保健类股可能会成为赢家；与之相对的是，非必需消费品、必需消费品和通信服务板块预计表现不佳。</p>\n<p>Subramanian表示，能源、金融以及某些房地产股票是寻求收益率抵御通胀的最佳选择，医疗保健类股则以其强劲的增长和合理的价格带来稳健收益而脱颖而出；相反，随着消费放缓，以及消费支出由商品转向服务，以消费为中心的板块应当会出现资金外流，而通信服务板块只是过于拥挤，可能很快就会出现松动。</p>\n<p>此外，她还称：“相比大盘股，我们更青睐小盘股；较之成长股，我们更看好价值股。”</p>\n<p><b>//&nbsp; 逢低买入还适用吗？&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>自从疫情开始以来，逢低买入在美股投资者中越来越受到欢迎。考虑到过去几年牛市行情带给投资者的回报，这点很容易理解。</p>\n<p>自2020年3月疫情冲击导致的低点以来，标普500指数已上涨超过一倍。这个看似势不可挡的牛市鼓励着散户投资者越跌越买。</p>\n<p>研究公司万达研究（Vanda Research）的数据显示，在上周五（11月26日）道琼斯指数录得今年最惨淡表现的当天，散户买入20.4亿美元的股票和ETF，为该公司有记录以来的第二大单日净买入。最大单日净买入是在今年7月19日创下的21.8亿美元，当时德尔塔变异株相关担忧曾引发市场大跌。</p>\n<p>不过，美银认为，到2022年逢低买入将不再是万无一失的操作。Subramanian称，如果美联储按预期缩减购债，投资者将不再为高风险股票支付溢价，这或在终结标普500指数多年连涨势头上发挥一定作用。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>策略师则持不同看法。策略师Marko Kolanovic和Bram Kaplan在周三一份报告中称，近期奥密克戎引发的市场动荡可能为投资者逢低买入周期股、大宗商品和经济重启主题资产提供了机会。摩根大通在11月中旬的一份报告中预测，标普500指数有望在2022年上半年达到5000点。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美银：2022年美国股市料降温，如何抵御通胀？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银：2022年美国股市料降温，如何抵御通胀？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-03 09:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>策略师表示，随着通胀上升和消费下降，未来一年美国股市将难以满足人们极高的期望。</p>\n<p>美银为标普500指数设定的2022年目标点位为4600点，较周三收盘点位4513.04点高约1.9%，但该目标位在华尔街中仍属于最低水平之一，这意味着该指数将在当前水平附近停滞不前，并且可能遭遇2018年以来首个下跌年。</p>\n<p>受新冠变异病毒奥密克戎毒株扩散以及美联储主席鲍威尔意外发表鹰派言论的影响，标普500指数在过去四个交易日中有三日下跌，较11月22日高点已回撤约4.8%，年初迄今涨幅收窄至20.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fffe58e4ce25feeea0152745a1bb27a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>美银股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian在周一一场网络研讨会上称：“我们的标普500指数10年回报长期预测模型一直具有很强的预测性，现在（模型）显示未来10年股票的回报将为负。上一次出现这种情况是在1999至2000年。”</p>\n<p>美银认为，鉴于股市估值处于历史高位，而盈利增速在疫后复苏阶段触顶，进入2022年，股票的风险回报看起来不太稳定。该行预计明年盈利将增长6.5%，远低于11%的长期中值。</p>\n<p>该行表示：“今天的市场市盈率只有在标普500指数下跌40%或盈利增长70%的情况下才有意义。所以，我们发现市场处在一个非常难以为继的位置。”</p>\n<p>但也有乐观的理由。Subramanian指出，明年股息预计将增长13%——为历史中值的两倍；在过去一个世纪里，股息占了市场回报的近三分之一。她表示，未来10年，股息将变得越加重要，尤其是在回报疲软的情况下。</p>\n<p><b>//&nbsp; 2022年通胀投资建议&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>美国通胀率现已达到30年来高点，并且开始冲击消费者钱包。美银预计，未来两年美国通胀率将处在3%左右的高位，远高于金融危机以来的水平。</p>\n<p>通胀居高不下已经引起鲍威尔的担忧。他在本周国会证词中表示，是时候放弃“暂时性”通胀的说法了，美联储可能在12月的会议上讨论是否比预期提前几个月结束购债。鲍威尔称，高通胀预计要到2022年下半年才会缓解。</p>\n<p>Subramanian说，通胀可能会高于过去10年的水平，“我们认为这可能是投资者未必准备好应对的领域”。</p>\n<p>对于被物价压力搞得措手不及的投资者，Subramanian给出的建议是可以购买这两类股票：收益率免受通胀影响的股票，以及资本支出的受益者。</p>\n<p>股息稳定增长且收益率超过6%（美国10月CPI通胀率为6.2%）的股票符合第一类。第二类股票则将受益于即将到来的机器和自动化领域的资本支出热潮，美国已经历了多年的长期投资不足，Subramanian称。她补充说，以服务为导向的股票符合这一模式，应该会在2022年反弹，而侧重商品的股票在经历强劲的一年之后将会回落。</p>\n<p>有鉴于此，美银认为，能源、金融和医疗保健类股可能会成为赢家；与之相对的是，非必需消费品、必需消费品和通信服务板块预计表现不佳。</p>\n<p>Subramanian表示，能源、金融以及某些房地产股票是寻求收益率抵御通胀的最佳选择，医疗保健类股则以其强劲的增长和合理的价格带来稳健收益而脱颖而出；相反，随着消费放缓，以及消费支出由商品转向服务，以消费为中心的板块应当会出现资金外流，而通信服务板块只是过于拥挤，可能很快就会出现松动。</p>\n<p>此外，她还称：“相比大盘股，我们更青睐小盘股；较之成长股，我们更看好价值股。”</p>\n<p><b>//&nbsp; 逢低买入还适用吗？&nbsp; //</b></p>\n<p>自从疫情开始以来，逢低买入在美股投资者中越来越受到欢迎。考虑到过去几年牛市行情带给投资者的回报，这点很容易理解。</p>\n<p>自2020年3月疫情冲击导致的低点以来，标普500指数已上涨超过一倍。这个看似势不可挡的牛市鼓励着散户投资者越跌越买。</p>\n<p>研究公司万达研究（Vanda Research）的数据显示，在上周五（11月26日）道琼斯指数录得今年最惨淡表现的当天，散户买入20.4亿美元的股票和ETF，为该公司有记录以来的第二大单日净买入。最大单日净买入是在今年7月19日创下的21.8亿美元，当时德尔塔变异株相关担忧曾引发市场大跌。</p>\n<p>不过，美银认为，到2022年逢低买入将不再是万无一失的操作。Subramanian称，如果美联储按预期缩减购债，投资者将不再为高风险股票支付溢价，这或在终结标普500指数多年连涨势头上发挥一定作用。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>策略师则持不同看法。策略师Marko Kolanovic和Bram Kaplan在周三一份报告中称，近期奥密克戎引发的市场动荡可能为投资者逢低买入周期股、大宗商品和经济重启主题资产提供了机会。摩根大通在11月中旬的一份报告中预测，标普500指数有望在2022年上半年达到5000点。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105966648","content_text":"美国银行策略师表示，随着通胀上升和消费下降，未来一年美国股市将难以满足人们极高的期望。\n美银为标普500指数设定的2022年目标点位为4600点，较周三收盘点位4513.04点高约1.9%，但该目标位在华尔街中仍属于最低水平之一，这意味着该指数将在当前水平附近停滞不前，并且可能遭遇2018年以来首个下跌年。\n受新冠变异病毒奥密克戎毒株扩散以及美联储主席鲍威尔意外发表鹰派言论的影响，标普500指数在过去四个交易日中有三日下跌，较11月22日高点已回撤约4.8%，年初迄今涨幅收窄至20.1%。\n\n美银股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian在周一一场网络研讨会上称：“我们的标普500指数10年回报长期预测模型一直具有很强的预测性，现在（模型）显示未来10年股票的回报将为负。上一次出现这种情况是在1999至2000年。”\n美银认为，鉴于股市估值处于历史高位，而盈利增速在疫后复苏阶段触顶，进入2022年，股票的风险回报看起来不太稳定。该行预计明年盈利将增长6.5%，远低于11%的长期中值。\n该行表示：“今天的市场市盈率只有在标普500指数下跌40%或盈利增长70%的情况下才有意义。所以，我们发现市场处在一个非常难以为继的位置。”\n但也有乐观的理由。Subramanian指出，明年股息预计将增长13%——为历史中值的两倍；在过去一个世纪里，股息占了市场回报的近三分之一。她表示，未来10年，股息将变得越加重要，尤其是在回报疲软的情况下。\n//  2022年通胀投资建议  //\n美国通胀率现已达到30年来高点，并且开始冲击消费者钱包。美银预计，未来两年美国通胀率将处在3%左右的高位，远高于金融危机以来的水平。\n通胀居高不下已经引起鲍威尔的担忧。他在本周国会证词中表示，是时候放弃“暂时性”通胀的说法了，美联储可能在12月的会议上讨论是否比预期提前几个月结束购债。鲍威尔称，高通胀预计要到2022年下半年才会缓解。\nSubramanian说，通胀可能会高于过去10年的水平，“我们认为这可能是投资者未必准备好应对的领域”。\n对于被物价压力搞得措手不及的投资者，Subramanian给出的建议是可以购买这两类股票：收益率免受通胀影响的股票，以及资本支出的受益者。\n股息稳定增长且收益率超过6%（美国10月CPI通胀率为6.2%）的股票符合第一类。第二类股票则将受益于即将到来的机器和自动化领域的资本支出热潮，美国已经历了多年的长期投资不足，Subramanian称。她补充说，以服务为导向的股票符合这一模式，应该会在2022年反弹，而侧重商品的股票在经历强劲的一年之后将会回落。\n有鉴于此，美银认为，能源、金融和医疗保健类股可能会成为赢家；与之相对的是，非必需消费品、必需消费品和通信服务板块预计表现不佳。\nSubramanian表示，能源、金融以及某些房地产股票是寻求收益率抵御通胀的最佳选择，医疗保健类股则以其强劲的增长和合理的价格带来稳健收益而脱颖而出；相反，随着消费放缓，以及消费支出由商品转向服务，以消费为中心的板块应当会出现资金外流，而通信服务板块只是过于拥挤，可能很快就会出现松动。\n此外，她还称：“相比大盘股，我们更青睐小盘股；较之成长股，我们更看好价值股。”\n//  逢低买入还适用吗？  //\n自从疫情开始以来，逢低买入在美股投资者中越来越受到欢迎。考虑到过去几年牛市行情带给投资者的回报，这点很容易理解。\n自2020年3月疫情冲击导致的低点以来，标普500指数已上涨超过一倍。这个看似势不可挡的牛市鼓励着散户投资者越跌越买。\n研究公司万达研究（Vanda 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