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华尔街的同志们
11-14
一片大好,居然想骗我买垃圾股?
高盛预测“垃圾股抄底”行情将持续到特朗普就职,卖空最多的美股受追捧
华尔街的同志们
10-04
Replying to
@勇敢小飞猪
:同意,成瘾体质要先学会控制,有一定控制力之后再来全世界最大的赌庄玩一玩,等到小“破产”几次后再给他真正的资金搞投资。//
@勇敢小飞猪
:看看孩子有没有“赌性”,有没有喜欢浪费爸爸妈妈的钱买一些盲盒或者现在流行的卡片,这些东西真的会上瘾,一下子就会浪费很多钱,如果会克制,就教他学习吧,股市真的会上瘾,年轻人都很难控制 [贱笑] [贱笑]
华尔街的同志们
2022-04-14
这次的通胀一半源自于油价高企,而油价高企是因为俄乌战争,各大投行纷纷说通胀见顶的意思是下个月战争结束。这都没读懂还来发文章(手动狗头)
美国通胀见顶意味着什么?更大的危机或将杀到
华尔街的同志们
2022-03-30
“现在拿着茅台,比现金存银行要好一点。”这句话本身不是空仓观点吗?就比拿现金好一点罢了。
抱歉,原内容已删除
华尔街的同志们
2021-03-05
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
清仓,看烟花。
华尔街的同志们
2021-03-05
啧啧,4月以后300+或者跌到200可以买(逻辑:或)
$快手-W(01024)$
@华尔街的同志们:
$快手科技(01024)$
总感觉半年内会有一次破发买入点。股价涨得这么凶,上来就开期权,充满了波动的味道。
华尔街的同志们
2021-02-25
影响:当日下挫,1个月内轻微打击投资情绪,重挫投机情绪,1个月后逐渐淡忘此事。信号:每次下调后股价都下挫了,是香港政府正确预估到了港股的下行走势,交易趋弱,于是试图增加港股的吸引力。那么这次上调就是预估到股市即将上涨、流动性增加,拿大碗进来捞钱。香港政府的想法就是这么朴实无华且枯燥。
港股拟上调印花税30%:200亿资金火线撤离,A股遭波及
华尔街的同志们
2021-02-24
$AMD(AMD)$
借着这波行情,真正的开仓/补仓机会终于出现了。mark目前价格82.5。以后回头看这个数字会觉得很低的。目前股转call,还留有一次补仓余地,以防75-(不作为投资意见)大家总听到喊amd产能吃紧,如何如何限制发展,但换一种眼光来看,在这一切工业产品均大幅过剩的年代里,市场哄抢以致出现黄牛难道不是最大的幸福吗?
华尔街的同志们
2021-02-22
$比亚迪电子(00285)$
什么也不说了上图。
华尔街的同志们
2021-02-09
如果科技股一直跑赢大盘,价值周期股也将跑赢大盘,最后小盘股也大概率跑赢大盘,那么什么是大盘呢?
抱歉,原内容已删除
华尔街的同志们
2021-02-04
$快手科技(01024)$
总感觉半年内会有一次破发买入点。股价涨得这么凶,上来就开期权,充满了波动的味道。
华尔街的同志们
2021-01-25
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
很高兴能为你再写一帖[开心] [开心]
@华尔街的同志们:
$Rocket Companies(RKT)$
现在买入如同白送,注意这股有杀妻(期)证道的传统,所以买入期权不要过于激进。基本面:疫情地区只要还没发生经济危机的,通胀都将逐渐流向最易保值的市场。美国股市已经承载了过多的水分,热钱逐渐流向房市。欧洲、东、南亚也会是这样,所以许多大基金和投资人已经完成了房产投资的布局。这股严格说是金融业,金融业的市盈率通常不高,8倍很常见,但他做的都是地产的项目,能够跟着地产一起丰收,算捡个漏子吧。长期看还是要回归到金融业正常的市盈率。不过不该是现在,而且一般这种房产抵押都不是短期之内的,所以很可能业务会好上许久从而改变这家公司的基本面。
华尔街的同志们
2021-01-25
$腾讯控股(00700)$
大陆基金开始把哄抢茅台和抱团行动的坏习惯给带到港股来了。比腾讯更值得投资的地方却如枯井一般寂静。虽超预期盈利,内心并不欢喜。
华尔街的同志们
2021-01-05
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
不要怂就是干,看到180
华尔街的同志们
2021-01-05
$先声药业(02096)$
长期来看是优质药企,ipo的时候明显黑了一把,但9块以下可以建仓,未来数年将步入一个持续的增长期,还将继续有突破性的新药上市。至于什么时候发动,可能尚早。
华尔街的同志们
2020-12-22
康庄大道从此展开,可喜可贺
抱歉,原内容已删除
华尔街的同志们
2020-11-26
$嘉楠科技(CAN)$
渣男除了没妻权,都是优点。
华尔街的同志们
2020-11-21
$思杰系统(CTXS)$
话不多说,put对冲绝佳标的,疫情受益科技股。
华尔街的同志们
2020-11-16
$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$
距离可以put的时间越来越近了,还有你
$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$
你
$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$
你们三个,都会有一波过热,看情况下刀的。mark一下这三现在的价格(按顺序):103.512.896
华尔街的同志们
2020-11-16
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
注意财报看好的人太多,建议做个对冲保护一下😊物极必反,也许反而给你们上一波中概套路:超预期财报,财报后跌。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bbf167b7c412c1f9582e65bbb2e021ea\" tg-width=\"1239\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p>因为他们预计:</p><p>(1) 利率将下降,</p><p>(2) 避免了经济衰退,</p><p>(3) 选举的不确定性已经消除,</p><p>(4) 以及特朗普大胜带动的“动物精神”行情将为低质量的股票提供有利环境。</p><p>过去10年中,11月和1月是这类股票组合表现最好的三个月之一(另一个是6月)。</p><p>自7月大规模去杠杆/平仓以来,做空的仓位普遍增加,目前达到了年内最高水平,这为年底前的做空回补提供了空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718e564c12886c81243e7b0d5b94a374\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"689\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛交易员最近预计,在美国大选带动的交易行情结束后,轮动压力将继续成为美股市场的显著特征,因为投资者将资金投入小盘股,并寻找周期性/通胀主题的机会。高盛交易员Mike Washington表示,随着选举、美联储和英国央行各自降息25个基点,10年期美债收益率一周内下降7个基点至4.30%,收益率波动回调以及长期的盈利报告周期,投资者疲劳已经显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛策略师在资产配置上继续亲风险,在股票和高收益债券方面继续增持美国、减持欧洲。包括Christian Mueller-Glissmann在内的策略师在11日本周一的报告中写道,隐含波动率的重置意味着投资者应当寻找特定的对冲或期权叠加,因为债券抛售可能会令股票承压。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛预测“垃圾股抄底”行情将持续到特朗普就职,卖空最多的美股受追捧</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛预测“垃圾股抄底”行情将持续到特朗普就职,卖空最多的美股受追捧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-14 08:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>截至本周一,高盛追踪的一篮子被卖空最多的个股在五个交易日内累涨超11%。高盛交易部门预计,这种卖空最多的个股受追捧现象会持续到明年1月特朗普宣誓就职总统。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51978843369bab5a5d1778a95c8cebe1\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"574\"/></p><p>根据高盛交易部门的Guillaume Soria的说法,市场面临着年底前“最被做空的股票”和质量较差的股票(包括高浮动利率债务和低动量股票)可能重新定价的风险。</p><p>具体来说,他们表示:</p><p>“我们正在进入一个支持周期性行业的环境(我们的周期性股票与防御性股票的对比组合创下了历史第二好的表现),短期利率正在逐步下降。”</p><p>当共和党获胜时,历史数据显示,过去表现较差的股票和高贝塔值(即波动较大的股票)可能会有更大的上涨空间。</p><p>贝塔值通常表现较好,大型股表现不如小型股,且小型股的表现几乎100%超越大型股;动量股通常表现较差,而价值股和盈利收益股则会跑赢成长股。</p><p>因此,高盛建议在1月底之前继续持有“最被做空的股票”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bbf167b7c412c1f9582e65bbb2e021ea\" tg-width=\"1239\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p>因为他们预计:</p><p>(1) 利率将下降,</p><p>(2) 避免了经济衰退,</p><p>(3) 选举的不确定性已经消除,</p><p>(4) 以及特朗普大胜带动的“动物精神”行情将为低质量的股票提供有利环境。</p><p>过去10年中,11月和1月是这类股票组合表现最好的三个月之一(另一个是6月)。</p><p>自7月大规模去杠杆/平仓以来,做空的仓位普遍增加,目前达到了年内最高水平,这为年底前的做空回补提供了空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718e564c12886c81243e7b0d5b94a374\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"689\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛交易员最近预计,在美国大选带动的交易行情结束后,轮动压力将继续成为美股市场的显著特征,因为投资者将资金投入小盘股,并寻找周期性/通胀主题的机会。高盛交易员Mike Washington表示,随着选举、美联储和英国央行各自降息25个基点,10年期美债收益率一周内下降7个基点至4.30%,收益率波动回调以及长期的盈利报告周期,投资者疲劳已经显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛策略师在资产配置上继续亲风险,在股票和高收益债券方面继续增持美国、减持欧洲。包括Christian Mueller-Glissmann在内的策略师在11日本周一的报告中写道,隐含波动率的重置意味着投资者应当寻找特定的对冲或期权叠加,因为债券抛售可能会令股票承压。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124878898","content_text":"截至本周一,高盛追踪的一篮子被卖空最多的个股在五个交易日内累涨超11%。高盛交易部门预计,这种卖空最多的个股受追捧现象会持续到明年1月特朗普宣誓就职总统。根据高盛交易部门的Guillaume Soria的说法,市场面临着年底前“最被做空的股票”和质量较差的股票(包括高浮动利率债务和低动量股票)可能重新定价的风险。具体来说,他们表示:“我们正在进入一个支持周期性行业的环境(我们的周期性股票与防御性股票的对比组合创下了历史第二好的表现),短期利率正在逐步下降。”当共和党获胜时,历史数据显示,过去表现较差的股票和高贝塔值(即波动较大的股票)可能会有更大的上涨空间。贝塔值通常表现较好,大型股表现不如小型股,且小型股的表现几乎100%超越大型股;动量股通常表现较差,而价值股和盈利收益股则会跑赢成长股。因此,高盛建议在1月底之前继续持有“最被做空的股票”因为他们预计:(1) 利率将下降,(2) 避免了经济衰退,(3) 选举的不确定性已经消除,(4) 以及特朗普大胜带动的“动物精神”行情将为低质量的股票提供有利环境。过去10年中,11月和1月是这类股票组合表现最好的三个月之一(另一个是6月)。自7月大规模去杠杆/平仓以来,做空的仓位普遍增加,目前达到了年内最高水平,这为年底前的做空回补提供了空间。高盛交易员最近预计,在美国大选带动的交易行情结束后,轮动压力将继续成为美股市场的显著特征,因为投资者将资金投入小盘股,并寻找周期性/通胀主题的机会。高盛交易员Mike Washington表示,随着选举、美联储和英国央行各自降息25个基点,10年期美债收益率一周内下降7个基点至4.30%,收益率波动回调以及长期的盈利报告周期,投资者疲劳已经显现。高盛策略师在资产配置上继续亲风险,在股票和高收益债券方面继续增持美国、减持欧洲。包括Christian Mueller-Glissmann在内的策略师在11日本周一的报告中写道,隐含波动率的重置意味着投资者应当寻找特定的对冲或期权叠加,因为债券抛售可能会令股票承压。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356446028800296,"gmtCreate":1728032424394,"gmtModify":1728032428343,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3520351954744518\">@勇敢小飞猪</a>:同意,成瘾体质要先学会控制,有一定控制力之后再来全世界最大的赌庄玩一玩,等到小“破产”几次后再给他真正的资金搞投资。//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3520351954744518\">@勇敢小飞猪</a>:看看孩子有没有“赌性”,有没有喜欢浪费爸爸妈妈的钱买一些盲盒或者现在流行的卡片,这些东西真的会上瘾,一下子就会浪费很多钱,如果会克制,就教他学习吧,股市真的会上瘾,年轻人都很难控制 [贱笑] [贱笑]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3520351954744518\">@勇敢小飞猪</a>:同意,成瘾体质要先学会控制,有一定控制力之后再来全世界最大的赌庄玩一玩,等到小“破产”几次后再给他真正的资金搞投资。//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3520351954744518\">@勇敢小飞猪</a>:看看孩子有没有“赌性”,有没有喜欢浪费爸爸妈妈的钱买一些盲盒或者现在流行的卡片,这些东西真的会上瘾,一下子就会浪费很多钱,如果会克制,就教他学习吧,股市真的会上瘾,年轻人都很难控制 [贱笑] [贱笑]","text":"Replying to @勇敢小飞猪:同意,成瘾体质要先学会控制,有一定控制力之后再来全世界最大的赌庄玩一玩,等到小“破产”几次后再给他真正的资金搞投资。//@勇敢小飞猪:看看孩子有没有“赌性”,有没有喜欢浪费爸爸妈妈的钱买一些盲盒或者现在流行的卡片,这些东西真的会上瘾,一下子就会浪费很多钱,如果会克制,就教他学习吧,股市真的会上瘾,年轻人都很难控制 [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356446028800296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613284874,"gmtCreate":1649911812505,"gmtModify":1649911812505,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这次的通胀一半源自于油价高企,而油价高企是因为俄乌战争,各大投行纷纷说通胀见顶的意思是下个月战争结束。这都没读懂还来发文章(手动狗头)","listText":"这次的通胀一半源自于油价高企,而油价高企是因为俄乌战争,各大投行纷纷说通胀见顶的意思是下个月战争结束。这都没读懂还来发文章(手动狗头)","text":"这次的通胀一半源自于油价高企,而油价高企是因为俄乌战争,各大投行纷纷说通胀见顶的意思是下个月战争结束。这都没读懂还来发文章(手动狗头)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613284874","repostId":"2227611854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2227611854","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649893012,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2227611854?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-14 07:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国通胀见顶意味着什么?更大的危机或将杀到","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227611854","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储不会轻易收手,美债收益率可能继续上扬,滞涨风险进一步提升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二万众瞩目的CPI数据出炉,但该数值是否已经见顶仍是尚未揭晓的悬念。不少华尔街一些银行认为确实如此。而就在过去几小时,包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在内的顶级投行都加入了这个行列。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f51d761ddfff2fea91ff4f60a407dfa\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04146302903d6049415e2a72838c018f\" tg-width=\"1248\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>那么,在过去一年华尔街投行甚至美联储频繁出错的情况下,我们应该如何辨别信息的准确性?</p><p>首先从事实出发:</p><p><b>第一</b>,数据存在着基数效应,实际上今年3月正值2020年疫情爆发两周年,在那之后经济一直处于复苏状态。</p><p><b>第二</b>,核心CPI环比增速为0.3%,不仅没有达到预期的0.5%,还刷新了自2022年9月以来的最低水平。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d501d7fb4ce6842b43d0cd4d58e700\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>第三</b>,作为衡量CPI通胀的一揽子商品中的重要部分,“住房”类别中的重要数据分项——OER(业主等价租金)和“主要住宅租金”的增长均适度放缓:3月,OER和主要住宅的租金均环比上涨0.43%,增速比2月略有下降。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af55aea8f8abebd7cf66661b5faf1d0a\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>第四</b>,数据显示3月份二手车和卡车的价格指数下降了3.8%,是自1969年以来的最大跌幅,为连续第二个月下跌。二手车价格一直以来都是通胀上行的重要推手。华尔街日报指出,随着近期汽油价格有所降温,以及许多供应短缺和物流运输问题都显露出好转迹象,高企的通胀似乎开始缓解。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268257b1b522dfa237d7f5fe9d139ffa\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>万神殿宏观经济研究所(Pantheon Macroeconomics)认为,CPI的下行之路才刚刚开始,其补充道:</p><blockquote>“二手车价格暴跌解释了3月份核心CPI低于预期的原因。<b>它们还存在下跌空间,并可能在今年剩余时间内对大幅压低核心通胀,这是十分现实的</b>。”</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b07e131a122bd104460b654dd9d74fb9\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>第五</b>,新债王冈拉克的态度转变值得关注。周二他在接受CNBC采访时称,“我们已经接近通胀顶峰”,而一个月前,他还预测通胀将达到10%。不过,零对冲提醒道,一年前,冈拉克就称通胀将在2021年7月达到顶峰,也许他也并非权威。</p><p>通胀尚未见顶的迹象</p><p><b>可以肯定的是,现在仍有各种理由质疑通胀是否见顶。</b>首先,食品和能源通胀显著增长,前者连续第二个月环比增长1%,后者则创下有史以来第二高的月度增幅。俄乌冲突导致能源价格居高不下且走向难以捉摸。</p><p>虽然拜登政府仍将降低能源价格作为民主党中期选举前的主要议程。但有一点是明确的:由<b>于滞后效应,食品价格尚未受到明显影响</b>,<b>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>所言,通胀高温会贯穿全年</b>。换句话说,虽然与疫情带来的通胀正在消退,但乌克兰局势将制造更大的食品通胀危机。当然,这不会对核心通胀造成太大的冲击,但美国家庭不会觉得两位数的食品通胀不算什么。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7055667f18f0b2de19e7679b24b9920\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对通胀见顶持怀疑态度的另一个原因是,正如前面所提到的,核心通胀降温大部分来自二手车和卡车价格的异常下降。相比之下,趋势通胀替代指标,<b>如CPI截尾均值(+0.55%)和中值(+0.48%)增速明显快于核心通胀率</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edcc493e0b8f7d6b2760655ba9455f9\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>此外,家居用品(+1.0%)和服装(+0.6%)都出现了超预期的涨幅,<b>表明供应链依然紧张</b>。鉴于最近的地缘政治形势,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>警告说,<b>供应链的进一步恶化最终可能再次开始影响汽车价格</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f349d6d18aac9ca41558c42ddc61973a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>综合各个投行的观点,美国的整体通胀可能会在二季度触顶,但不一定是在3月。德银写道:</p><blockquote>“我们对核心CPI的长期观点仍然稳定,<b>通胀将在4月见顶,今年年底为5.0%,2023年为3.4%,2024年为2.7%</b>。食品和能源通胀将导致整体通胀率高于核心通胀率,整体通胀率的相应数值届时将分别达到6.2%、3.6%和3.0%。”</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/996db41c104fd00403f43cb9fe14f580\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>经济将步入滞涨期?美债收益率或趋平</p><p>零对冲指出,随着高盛和摩根大通预计“通胀见顶”,如果美联储也赞同这一说法,因为通胀的持续性将使美国不能停下加息的脚步,这将成为经济步入漫长的滞涨期的明确信号。</p><p>中金固收认为,“通胀见顶”只是表明接下来的环比涨幅可能会低于去年同期,但通胀的环比涨幅和本身的绝对水平仍然处于历史高位。美联储接下来依旧需要进一步抑制通胀。</p><p>这意味着虽然美债收益率已经反映出很多加息和缩表预期,但其还有继续上行的空间。现在美联储只启动了一次加息,且更快更猛的量化紧缩政策也未真正落地,通常美债收益率都是在加息中后期才会触顶。</p><p>因此,对于市场而言,即使通胀见顶,美联储也不会刹车,美债收益率走势或将继续上扬,尤其是中短端的涨幅可能高于长端,届时收益率曲线趋平带来的市场冲击不容小觑。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国通胀见顶意味着什么?更大的危机或将杀到</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国通胀见顶意味着什么?更大的危机或将杀到\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-14 07:36 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=92689&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周二万众瞩目的CPI数据出炉,但该数值是否已经见顶仍是尚未揭晓的悬念。不少华尔街一些银行认为确实如此。而就在过去几小时,包括高盛、德意志银行、摩根大通在内的顶级投行都加入了这个行列。那么,在过去一年华尔街投行甚至美联储频繁出错的情况下,我们应该如何辨别信息的准确性?首先从事实出发:第一,数据存在着基数效应,实际上今年3月正值2020年疫情爆发两周年,在那之后经济一直处于复苏状态。第二,核心CPI...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=92689&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b50785cea91ad3d2f817c251060ccfff","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=92689&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227611854","content_text":"周二万众瞩目的CPI数据出炉,但该数值是否已经见顶仍是尚未揭晓的悬念。不少华尔街一些银行认为确实如此。而就在过去几小时,包括高盛、德意志银行、摩根大通在内的顶级投行都加入了这个行列。那么,在过去一年华尔街投行甚至美联储频繁出错的情况下,我们应该如何辨别信息的准确性?首先从事实出发:第一,数据存在着基数效应,实际上今年3月正值2020年疫情爆发两周年,在那之后经济一直处于复苏状态。第二,核心CPI环比增速为0.3%,不仅没有达到预期的0.5%,还刷新了自2022年9月以来的最低水平。第三,作为衡量CPI通胀的一揽子商品中的重要部分,“住房”类别中的重要数据分项——OER(业主等价租金)和“主要住宅租金”的增长均适度放缓:3月,OER和主要住宅的租金均环比上涨0.43%,增速比2月略有下降。第四,数据显示3月份二手车和卡车的价格指数下降了3.8%,是自1969年以来的最大跌幅,为连续第二个月下跌。二手车价格一直以来都是通胀上行的重要推手。华尔街日报指出,随着近期汽油价格有所降温,以及许多供应短缺和物流运输问题都显露出好转迹象,高企的通胀似乎开始缓解。万神殿宏观经济研究所(Pantheon Macroeconomics)认为,CPI的下行之路才刚刚开始,其补充道:“二手车价格暴跌解释了3月份核心CPI低于预期的原因。它们还存在下跌空间,并可能在今年剩余时间内对大幅压低核心通胀,这是十分现实的。”第五,新债王冈拉克的态度转变值得关注。周二他在接受CNBC采访时称,“我们已经接近通胀顶峰”,而一个月前,他还预测通胀将达到10%。不过,零对冲提醒道,一年前,冈拉克就称通胀将在2021年7月达到顶峰,也许他也并非权威。通胀尚未见顶的迹象可以肯定的是,现在仍有各种理由质疑通胀是否见顶。首先,食品和能源通胀显著增长,前者连续第二个月环比增长1%,后者则创下有史以来第二高的月度增幅。俄乌冲突导致能源价格居高不下且走向难以捉摸。虽然拜登政府仍将降低能源价格作为民主党中期选举前的主要议程。但有一点是明确的:由于滞后效应,食品价格尚未受到明显影响,正如美国银行所言,通胀高温会贯穿全年。换句话说,虽然与疫情带来的通胀正在消退,但乌克兰局势将制造更大的食品通胀危机。当然,这不会对核心通胀造成太大的冲击,但美国家庭不会觉得两位数的食品通胀不算什么。对通胀见顶持怀疑态度的另一个原因是,正如前面所提到的,核心通胀降温大部分来自二手车和卡车价格的异常下降。相比之下,趋势通胀替代指标,如CPI截尾均值(+0.55%)和中值(+0.48%)增速明显快于核心通胀率。此外,家居用品(+1.0%)和服装(+0.6%)都出现了超预期的涨幅,表明供应链依然紧张。鉴于最近的地缘政治形势,德意志银行警告说,供应链的进一步恶化最终可能再次开始影响汽车价格。综合各个投行的观点,美国的整体通胀可能会在二季度触顶,但不一定是在3月。德银写道:“我们对核心CPI的长期观点仍然稳定,通胀将在4月见顶,今年年底为5.0%,2023年为3.4%,2024年为2.7%。食品和能源通胀将导致整体通胀率高于核心通胀率,整体通胀率的相应数值届时将分别达到6.2%、3.6%和3.0%。”经济将步入滞涨期?美债收益率或趋平零对冲指出,随着高盛和摩根大通预计“通胀见顶”,如果美联储也赞同这一说法,因为通胀的持续性将使美国不能停下加息的脚步,这将成为经济步入漫长的滞涨期的明确信号。中金固收认为,“通胀见顶”只是表明接下来的环比涨幅可能会低于去年同期,但通胀的环比涨幅和本身的绝对水平仍然处于历史高位。美联储接下来依旧需要进一步抑制通胀。这意味着虽然美债收益率已经反映出很多加息和缩表预期,但其还有继续上行的空间。现在美联储只启动了一次加息,且更快更猛的量化紧缩政策也未真正落地,通常美债收益率都是在加息中后期才会触顶。因此,对于市场而言,即使通胀见顶,美联储也不会刹车,美债收益率走势或将继续上扬,尤其是中短端的涨幅可能高于长端,届时收益率曲线趋平带来的市场冲击不容小觑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610640161,"gmtCreate":1648616471192,"gmtModify":1648616471192,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"“现在拿着茅台,比现金存银行要好一点。”这句话本身不是空仓观点吗?就比拿现金好一点罢了。","listText":"“现在拿着茅台,比现金存银行要好一点。”这句话本身不是空仓观点吗?就比拿现金好一点罢了。","text":"“现在拿着茅台,比现金存银行要好一点。”这句话本身不是空仓观点吗?就比拿现金好一点罢了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610640161","repostId":"2223879308","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367090659,"gmtCreate":1614881442971,"gmtModify":1703482533329,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>清仓,看烟花。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>清仓,看烟花。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500(.SPX)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$清仓,看烟花。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367090659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3520766438256092","authorId":"3520766438256092","name":"卡卡先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5072cdea13a1b5a8e580c54224f4d68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3520766438256092","authorIdStr":"3520766438256092"},"content":"熔断,全场看空","text":"熔断,全场看空","html":"熔断,全场看空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364755711,"gmtCreate":1614877408233,"gmtModify":1703482486954,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啧啧,4月以后300+或者跌到200可以买(逻辑:或)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>","listText":"啧啧,4月以后300+或者跌到200可以买(逻辑:或)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>","text":"啧啧,4月以后300+或者跌到200可以买(逻辑:或)$快手-W(01024)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364755711","repostId":"317113023","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":317113023,"gmtCreate":1612427161862,"gmtModify":1703761674703,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手科技(01024)$</a>总感觉半年内会有一次破发买入点。股价涨得这么凶,上来就开期权,充满了波动的味道。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手科技(01024)$</a>总感觉半年内会有一次破发买入点。股价涨得这么凶,上来就开期权,充满了波动的味道。","text":"$快手科技(01024)$总感觉半年内会有一次破发买入点。股价涨得这么凶,上来就开期权,充满了波动的味道。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317113023","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361811220,"gmtCreate":1614219470860,"gmtModify":1614219470860,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"影响:当日下挫,1个月内轻微打击投资情绪,重挫投机情绪,1个月后逐渐淡忘此事。信号:每次下调后股价都下挫了,是香港政府正确预估到了港股的下行走势,交易趋弱,于是试图增加港股的吸引力。那么这次上调就是预估到股市即将上涨、流动性增加,拿大碗进来捞钱。香港政府的想法就是这么朴实无华且枯燥。","listText":"影响:当日下挫,1个月内轻微打击投资情绪,重挫投机情绪,1个月后逐渐淡忘此事。信号:每次下调后股价都下挫了,是香港政府正确预估到了港股的下行走势,交易趋弱,于是试图增加港股的吸引力。那么这次上调就是预估到股市即将上涨、流动性增加,拿大碗进来捞钱。香港政府的想法就是这么朴实无华且枯燥。","text":"影响:当日下挫,1个月内轻微打击投资情绪,重挫投机情绪,1个月后逐渐淡忘此事。信号:每次下调后股价都下挫了,是香港政府正确预估到了港股的下行走势,交易趋弱,于是试图增加港股的吸引力。那么这次上调就是预估到股市即将上涨、流动性增加,拿大碗进来捞钱。香港政府的想法就是这么朴实无华且枯燥。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361811220","repostId":"2114039497","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2114039497","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1614215899,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2114039497?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-25 09:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股拟上调印花税30%:200亿资金火线撤离,A股遭波及","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2114039497","media":"Wind资讯","summary":" 2月24日,受港股宣布将提高股票印花税消息影响,A股、港股均出现大幅下跌,特别是前期涨幅较大的大市值抱团股跌 居前,而小盘股表现相对较好。香港宣布将上调印花税 //. 资料显示,现行印花税税率为0.1%,该税率自2001年9月起施行至今。 受港股拟上调印花税影响,南下资金11点之后出现一个明显的卖出行为,且持续卖出。","content":"<p>2月24日,受港股宣布将提高股票印花税消息影响,A股、港股均出现大幅下跌,特别是前期涨幅较大的大市值抱团股跌 居前,而小盘股表现相对较好。</p><p>// 史无前例!香港宣布将上调印花税 //</p><p>2月24日午间,香港财政司司长陈茂波表示,我们充分考虑对证券市场和国际竞争力的影响后,决定提交法案调整股票印花税税率,由现时买卖双方按交易金额各付百分之零点一,提高至百分之零点一三。政府将继续全力推行各项发展证券市场的措施,将香港的金融业发展至更高的台阶。</p><p>资料显示,现行印花税税率为0.1%,该税率自2001年9月起施行至今。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/628/w554h874/20210225/0166-kkmphps9687246.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"874\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>当日下午,港交所回应印花税提升时表示,市场需要时间来消化,不能评论真实的影响会怎样,但是大家不用反应过大、过快,需要更多的时间观察。香港市场吸引力,除了成本也有很多其他的因素考虑,比如上市公司质量等,这些因素都可以增加香港资本市场的活力;印花税提升不会在几个月内就实行,仍需要立法。</p><p>// 港股重挫,港交所一度急跌逾12% //</p><p>受此消息影响,港交所盘中一度跌超12%,创2015年来最大跌幅,收盘跌8.78%,成交207亿港币,创2015年7月新高。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/598/w554h844/20210225/2787-kkmphps9687295.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"844\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">香港交易所</a>股价大跳水的同时,港股2月24日整体表现疲软,主要指数全线调整。</p><p>香港恒生指数收跌2.99%报29718.24点,恒生国企指数跌3.36%报11509.73点,恒生科技指数跌5.1%报9360.95点。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/291/w554h537/20210225/2a1d-kkmphps9687294.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>恒生科技指数32支成份股中,31支下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">金山软件</a>跌13.16%领跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>集团控股跌9.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02400\">心动公司</a>跌9.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00268\">金蝶国际</a>跌8.93%。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/611/w480h931/20210225/ee8f-kkmphps9687366.png\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"931\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从板块来看,科技巨头股普跌, 快手跌8.6%,美团跌6.9%,小米跌4.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团跌3.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>跌2.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌1.9%。</p><p>// 南向资金罕见流出近200亿港元 //</p><p>受港股拟上调印花税影响,南下资金11点之后出现一个明显的卖出行为,且持续卖出。截至收盘,南下资金累计净卖出约200亿元,为2020年12月18日以来首次净卖出,更创港股通开通以来最大净卖出规模。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/88/w554h334/20210225/5393-kkmphps9687364.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>其中,2月24日净卖出前三个股为腾讯控股(49.17亿港元)、美团(41.95亿港元)、香港交易所(40.4亿港元);中国移动获净买入4.99亿港元居首。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/93/w554h339/20210225/b7e8-kkmphps9687423.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/91/w554h337/20210225/950d-kkmphps9687422.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>//对于港股有何影响? //</p><p>中泰国际分析师颜招骏表示,现有的交易成本大约是0.25%+0.1077%=0.3577%,印花税上调30%后使总交易成本上升至0.3877%,大约8%左右。目前市场程式交易盛行,少至0.1%也对每宗程序交易构成重大影响。交易成本上升将短线打击投资情绪,可能有部分资金转投较低成本的美股。但长线不会有太大影响,毕竟公司盈利增长、估值、前景才是决定投资者入市的最主要因素。</p><p>香港税务局资料显示,自1993年以来,香港股票印花税税率呈现连续下降态势。三次印花税下调后,恒指出现一到四个月震荡调整,然后触底回升。</p><p>具体来看,1993年4月1日至1998年3月31日,税率为0.15%。从1998年4月1日开始税率降至0.125%,调整后四个月,恒指下探超过40%后触底。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/676/w1008h468/20210225/78b5-kkmphps9687496.png\" tg-width=\"1008\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2000年4月7日至2001年8月31日,税率降至0.1125%。下调印花税率后2个月恒指下跌超15%。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/694/w1008h486/20210225/9326-kkmphps9687497.png\" tg-width=\"1008\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2001年9月1日至今,税率再度下降,至0.1%,并沿用至今。调整后不到一个月时间恒指下调近20%。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/694/w1008h486/20210225/0e6c-kkmphps9687564.png\" tg-width=\"1008\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>// A股遭波及,抱团股再受重锤 //</p><p>A股情况也不太乐观,2月24日早盘,A股指数单边下行,截至收盘,上证指数盘跌近2%,创业板指跌3.37%。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/206/w554h452/20210225/e24e-kkmphps9687562.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从板块来看,机构偏爱的白酒板块领跌两市。截至收盘,白酒板块内,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000568\">泸州老窖</a>报收跌停,酒鬼酒、五粮液、山西汾酒、水井坊等十余只个股跌幅超过5%。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/608/w477h931/20210225/5a33-kkmphps9687627.png\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"931\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2月24日,一则“南方基金小道消息称上层指示要支持科技行业融资创新发展,并点名了易方达翻炒白酒”的传闻在市场上流传开来。</p><p>对此,南方基金表示,此为他人假冒公司名义发布市场传言,经核实,该信息为虚假信息,南方基金从未发布过此信息。</p><p>除了白酒,光伏、食品等高位板块也深度回调,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">通策医疗</a>、比亚迪、金龙鱼、涪陵榨菜、恒顺醋业、同仁堂、云南白药等大跌,抱团股再次集体重挫。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/624/w493h931/20210225/b000-kkmphps9687628.png\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"931\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>// 个股并未现恐慌抛售 //</p><p>从全部A股涨跌幅情况来看,虽然市场大幅下跌,但个股表现好于预期,并未现恐慌抛售,上涨个股数量超过2000只,涨停个股数量达44只,下跌个股近2000只。可见,虽然指数跌幅较大,但个股并未出现大面积下跌。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd2021225s/720/w796h724/20210225/2bf9-kkmphps9687681.png\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">// A股后市怎么走? //</p><p>国盛证券表示,3600点一线大概率提供强支撑,上升趋势仍在,不宜盲目杀跌。操作上,行情反复但向上格局仍在,春季躁动后半段行情值得参与,相较于周期股,建议关注相对低估的二线蓝筹。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析称,目前市场开始进行自发的良性调整,前几个交易日中小市值相关个股出现连续普涨后也出现一定的回落,部分获利盘开始撤离。操作上看投资者可在控制仓位的前提下参与市场的热点轮动,现阶段可积极调仓换股,选择年报预期较好且近期成交量充裕的品种进行操作。</p><p>国盛证券认为,核心资产将维持慢牛走势,大部分平庸或者质地较差的公司会被逐渐边缘化,建议回避ROE(净资产收益率)不能跑赢通胀的上市公司,ROE不及8%的个股,需谨慎参与。</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股拟上调印花税30%:200亿资金火线撤离,A股遭波及</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股拟上调印花税30%:200亿资金火线撤离,A股遭波及\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-25 09:18 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2021-02-25/doc-ikftpnny9570546.shtml><strong>Wind资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月24日,受港股宣布将提高股票印花税消息影响,A股、港股均出现大幅下跌,特别是前期涨幅较大的大市值抱团股跌 居前,而小盘股表现相对较好。// 史无前例!香港宣布将上调印花税 //2月24日午间,香港财政司司长陈茂波表示,我们充分考虑对证券市场和国际竞争力的影响后,决定提交法案调整股票印花税税率,由现时买卖双方按交易金额各付百分之零点一,提高至百分之零点一三。政府将继续全力推行各项发展证券市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2021-02-25/doc-ikftpnny9570546.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2021-02-25/doc-ikftpnny9570546.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2114039497","content_text":"2月24日,受港股宣布将提高股票印花税消息影响,A股、港股均出现大幅下跌,特别是前期涨幅较大的大市值抱团股跌 居前,而小盘股表现相对较好。// 史无前例!香港宣布将上调印花税 //2月24日午间,香港财政司司长陈茂波表示,我们充分考虑对证券市场和国际竞争力的影响后,决定提交法案调整股票印花税税率,由现时买卖双方按交易金额各付百分之零点一,提高至百分之零点一三。政府将继续全力推行各项发展证券市场的措施,将香港的金融业发展至更高的台阶。资料显示,现行印花税税率为0.1%,该税率自2001年9月起施行至今。当日下午,港交所回应印花税提升时表示,市场需要时间来消化,不能评论真实的影响会怎样,但是大家不用反应过大、过快,需要更多的时间观察。香港市场吸引力,除了成本也有很多其他的因素考虑,比如上市公司质量等,这些因素都可以增加香港资本市场的活力;印花税提升不会在几个月内就实行,仍需要立法。// 港股重挫,港交所一度急跌逾12% //受此消息影响,港交所盘中一度跌超12%,创2015年来最大跌幅,收盘跌8.78%,成交207亿港币,创2015年7月新高。在香港交易所股价大跳水的同时,港股2月24日整体表现疲软,主要指数全线调整。香港恒生指数收跌2.99%报29718.24点,恒生国企指数跌3.36%报11509.73点,恒生科技指数跌5.1%报9360.95点。恒生科技指数32支成份股中,31支下跌,金山软件跌13.16%领跌,明源云集团控股跌9.6%,心动公司跌9.27%,金蝶国际跌8.93%。从板块来看,科技巨头股普跌, 快手跌8.6%,美团跌6.9%,小米跌4.5%,京东集团跌3.9%,腾讯控股跌2.8%,阿里巴巴跌1.9%。// 南向资金罕见流出近200亿港元 //受港股拟上调印花税影响,南下资金11点之后出现一个明显的卖出行为,且持续卖出。截至收盘,南下资金累计净卖出约200亿元,为2020年12月18日以来首次净卖出,更创港股通开通以来最大净卖出规模。其中,2月24日净卖出前三个股为腾讯控股(49.17亿港元)、美团(41.95亿港元)、香港交易所(40.4亿港元);中国移动获净买入4.99亿港元居首。//对于港股有何影响? //中泰国际分析师颜招骏表示,现有的交易成本大约是0.25%+0.1077%=0.3577%,印花税上调30%后使总交易成本上升至0.3877%,大约8%左右。目前市场程式交易盛行,少至0.1%也对每宗程序交易构成重大影响。交易成本上升将短线打击投资情绪,可能有部分资金转投较低成本的美股。但长线不会有太大影响,毕竟公司盈利增长、估值、前景才是决定投资者入市的最主要因素。香港税务局资料显示,自1993年以来,香港股票印花税税率呈现连续下降态势。三次印花税下调后,恒指出现一到四个月震荡调整,然后触底回升。具体来看,1993年4月1日至1998年3月31日,税率为0.15%。从1998年4月1日开始税率降至0.125%,调整后四个月,恒指下探超过40%后触底。2000年4月7日至2001年8月31日,税率降至0.1125%。下调印花税率后2个月恒指下跌超15%。2001年9月1日至今,税率再度下降,至0.1%,并沿用至今。调整后不到一个月时间恒指下调近20%。// A股遭波及,抱团股再受重锤 //A股情况也不太乐观,2月24日早盘,A股指数单边下行,截至收盘,上证指数盘跌近2%,创业板指跌3.37%。从板块来看,机构偏爱的白酒板块领跌两市。截至收盘,白酒板块内,泸州老窖报收跌停,酒鬼酒、五粮液、山西汾酒、水井坊等十余只个股跌幅超过5%。2月24日,一则“南方基金小道消息称上层指示要支持科技行业融资创新发展,并点名了易方达翻炒白酒”的传闻在市场上流传开来。对此,南方基金表示,此为他人假冒公司名义发布市场传言,经核实,该信息为虚假信息,南方基金从未发布过此信息。除了白酒,光伏、食品等高位板块也深度回调,通策医疗、比亚迪、金龙鱼、涪陵榨菜、恒顺醋业、同仁堂、云南白药等大跌,抱团股再次集体重挫。// 个股并未现恐慌抛售 //从全部A股涨跌幅情况来看,虽然市场大幅下跌,但个股表现好于预期,并未现恐慌抛售,上涨个股数量超过2000只,涨停个股数量达44只,下跌个股近2000只。可见,虽然指数跌幅较大,但个股并未出现大面积下跌。// A股后市怎么走? //国盛证券表示,3600点一线大概率提供强支撑,上升趋势仍在,不宜盲目杀跌。操作上,行情反复但向上格局仍在,春季躁动后半段行情值得参与,相较于周期股,建议关注相对低估的二线蓝筹。东吴证券分析称,目前市场开始进行自发的良性调整,前几个交易日中小市值相关个股出现连续普涨后也出现一定的回落,部分获利盘开始撤离。操作上看投资者可在控制仓位的前提下参与市场的热点轮动,现阶段可积极调仓换股,选择年报预期较好且近期成交量充裕的品种进行操作。国盛证券认为,核心资产将维持慢牛走势,大部分平庸或者质地较差的公司会被逐渐边缘化,建议回避ROE(净资产收益率)不能跑赢通胀的上市公司,ROE不及8%的个股,需谨慎参与。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363111479,"gmtCreate":1614100788891,"gmtModify":1614100788891,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket Companies(RKT)$</a>很高兴能为你再写一帖[开心] [开心] ","text":"$Rocket Companies(RKT)$很高兴能为你再写一帖[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319588396","repostId":"304875080","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":304875080,"gmtCreate":1605199713140,"gmtModify":1703836770433,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$Rocket 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTXS\">$思杰系统(CTXS)$</a>话不多说,put对冲绝佳标的,疫情受益科技股。","text":"$思杰系统(CTXS)$话不多说,put对冲绝佳标的,疫情受益科技股。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd9047473739826d2de1024518cc6b88","width":"828","height":"242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399912969","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307887795,"gmtCreate":1605530179317,"gmtModify":1703838068284,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>距离可以put的时间越来越近了,还有你<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>你<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>你们三个,都会有一波过热,看情况下刀的。mark一下这三现在的价格(按顺序):103.512.896","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>距离可以put的时间越来越近了,还有你<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>你<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>你们三个,都会有一波过热,看情况下刀的。mark一下这三现在的价格(按顺序):103.512.896","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$距离可以put的时间越来越近了,还有你$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$你$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$你们三个,都会有一波过热,看情况下刀的。mark一下这三现在的价格(按顺序):103.512.896","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307887795","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562149048743811","authorId":"3562149048743811","name":"信托基金劫匪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb0cc9dc33085380672817073935c8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3562149048743811","authorIdStr":"3562149048743811"},"content":"已经可以了吧?","text":"已经可以了吧?","html":"已经可以了吧?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307184894,"gmtCreate":1605516283218,"gmtModify":1703837922996,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>注意财报看好的人太多,建议做个对冲保护一下😊物极必反,也许反而给你们上一波中概套路:超预期财报,财报后跌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>注意财报看好的人太多,建议做个对冲保护一下😊物极必反,也许反而给你们上一波中概套路:超预期财报,财报后跌。","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$注意财报看好的人太多,建议做个对冲保护一下😊物极必反,也许反而给你们上一波中概套路:超预期财报,财报后跌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307184894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":305758102,"gmtCreate":1605067401406,"gmtModify":1703836063529,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"title":"传统对冲和灵活对冲——万物皆可对冲","htmlText":"今天介绍一种帮助大家平稳收益率曲线的“不对称对冲”交易法。(请大家看帖回复点赞,帮我早日4级,不稀罕开空间站赚钱,我自己去赚不开站,就为了发帖能多关联几只股票,和更多人一起探讨,而不是每次举例只能话说一半。)传统意义上的对冲行为,最经典的包括以下两种:1买入正股同时在风险期买入短期put(如财报来临、大选、复飞延迟等不确定因素)有按持股数对冲和按涨跌同幅对冲2种方法。适合此类的公司典型为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>评价:波动这么大的股票,还几乎完全是消息面推动,都知道波音不会死,可是不对冲真的合适吗?2买入正股的同时卖出不太可能被行权的call(当股价陷入狂热,但公司基本面良好)通常是价外call,高波动率高溢价期权补充的收入可以变相降低高股价买入的风险。这种玩法适合想参与但又怕贵的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>这类股票。评价:真涨上去了,反正你也赚了不少不是?总比干看着好。不对称对冲法比二者就更为灵活的多了。主要思路有:1精确找寻到归属于同一个板块但性质上差别微妙的股票进行对冲,比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>和拼多多pdd(超过3只已经不让我关联了)。你完全可以一多(正股)一空(put),用另一只股票做对冲,其间的滋味妙不可言。具体谁正股谁put,我说看情况,每个阶段都会变,目前短期是多多多,跌到位反转阿里多。评价:最大的好处是,涨赚钱;跌了只要差不多涨回来别人还亏着你已经赚钱了。只要二者的形势判断正确。2找到股价水分大的和股价夯实的2只同大盘股,适合大盘自身涨跌跳跃式波动时。比如我之前做多的吉利汽车,有段时间吉利跌的很厉害,在那段时间里,港股全盘也都在跌,下行区间里","listText":"今天介绍一种帮助大家平稳收益率曲线的“不对称对冲”交易法。(请大家看帖回复点赞,帮我早日4级,不稀罕开空间站赚钱,我自己去赚不开站,就为了发帖能多关联几只股票,和更多人一起探讨,而不是每次举例只能话说一半。)传统意义上的对冲行为,最经典的包括以下两种:1买入正股同时在风险期买入短期put(如财报来临、大选、复飞延迟等不确定因素)有按持股数对冲和按涨跌同幅对冲2种方法。适合此类的公司典型为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>评价:波动这么大的股票,还几乎完全是消息面推动,都知道波音不会死,可是不对冲真的合适吗?2买入正股的同时卖出不太可能被行权的call(当股价陷入狂热,但公司基本面良好)通常是价外call,高波动率高溢价期权补充的收入可以变相降低高股价买入的风险。这种玩法适合想参与但又怕贵的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>这类股票。评价:真涨上去了,反正你也赚了不少不是?总比干看着好。不对称对冲法比二者就更为灵活的多了。主要思路有:1精确找寻到归属于同一个板块但性质上差别微妙的股票进行对冲,比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>和拼多多pdd(超过3只已经不让我关联了)。你完全可以一多(正股)一空(put),用另一只股票做对冲,其间的滋味妙不可言。具体谁正股谁put,我说看情况,每个阶段都会变,目前短期是多多多,跌到位反转阿里多。评价:最大的好处是,涨赚钱;跌了只要差不多涨回来别人还亏着你已经赚钱了。只要二者的形势判断正确。2找到股价水分大的和股价夯实的2只同大盘股,适合大盘自身涨跌跳跃式波动时。比如我之前做多的吉利汽车,有段时间吉利跌的很厉害,在那段时间里,港股全盘也都在跌,下行区间里","text":"今天介绍一种帮助大家平稳收益率曲线的“不对称对冲”交易法。(请大家看帖回复点赞,帮我早日4级,不稀罕开空间站赚钱,我自己去赚不开站,就为了发帖能多关联几只股票,和更多人一起探讨,而不是每次举例只能话说一半。)传统意义上的对冲行为,最经典的包括以下两种:1买入正股同时在风险期买入短期put(如财报来临、大选、复飞延迟等不确定因素)有按持股数对冲和按涨跌同幅对冲2种方法。适合此类的公司典型为$波音(BA)$评价:波动这么大的股票,还几乎完全是消息面推动,都知道波音不会死,可是不对冲真的合适吗?2买入正股的同时卖出不太可能被行权的call(当股价陷入狂热,但公司基本面良好)通常是价外call,高波动率高溢价期权补充的收入可以变相降低高股价买入的风险。这种玩法适合想参与但又怕贵的$蔚来(NIO)$这类股票。评价:真涨上去了,反正你也赚了不少不是?总比干看着好。不对称对冲法比二者就更为灵活的多了。主要思路有:1精确找寻到归属于同一个板块但性质上差别微妙的股票进行对冲,比如$阿里巴巴(BABA)$和拼多多pdd(超过3只已经不让我关联了)。你完全可以一多(正股)一空(put),用另一只股票做对冲,其间的滋味妙不可言。具体谁正股谁put,我说看情况,每个阶段都会变,目前短期是多多多,跌到位反转阿里多。评价:最大的好处是,涨赚钱;跌了只要差不多涨回来别人还亏着你已经赚钱了。只要二者的形势判断正确。2找到股价水分大的和股价夯实的2只同大盘股,适合大盘自身涨跌跳跃式波动时。比如我之前做多的吉利汽车,有段时间吉利跌的很厉害,在那段时间里,港股全盘也都在跌,下行区间里","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":76,"commentSize":38,"repostSize":15,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305758102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558564787435007","authorId":"3558564787435007","name":"好玩吧幸福女性","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558564787435007","authorIdStr":"3558564787435007"},"content":"一直在跌不知咋回事","text":"一直在跌不知咋回事","html":"一直在跌不知咋回事"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300483637,"gmtCreate":1602302002329,"gmtModify":1703826443332,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">$晶科能源(JKS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00386\">$中国石油化工股份(00386)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">$福莱特玻璃(06865)$</a>最近的石油港股和A股出现了进一步的股价背离现象。我这个在港股中一贯挣钱的人(因为以前下仓一直猥琐且怂,最近赚钱飘了就亏)也因此迎来了投资以来的最大一笔败绩,下注中国石化港股价值修复直接回吐全部利润的1/3。表面逻辑是美股的石油股下滑低迷拖动港股估值向其靠拢,这让我一开始不是很能理解,为何石油价格已经修复突破40美元,石化企业的低迷却仍旧持续?直到我在生活中看到大量关于光伏产业的新闻和深度评述(让我彻底意识到的是在观视频马督工的一期讲到光伏发电的成本已经接近甚至超越火电)才明白:大人,时代变了!为何机构持续狂热加注太阳能?实在是这个行业的增长逻辑过于清晰,行业潜力以及影响力百年难遇。用百年难遇这个词真的一点也不夸张。毕竟人生短暂,我们又能遇到几次人类能源史上的转折点呢?你是能买到蒸汽机发明,从而开启辉煌的现代文明?还是第一桶石油被炼化,金色的能量喷薄而出?抑或是未来的可控核聚变,从此步入星辰的大海?但你可以买到太阳能取代化石燃料!于是痛定思痛,一刀切了石油,拿剩下的钱全部买入光伏。天予不取,反受其咎。 ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">$晶科能源(JKS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00386\">$中国石油化工股份(00386)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">$福莱特玻璃(06865)$</a>最近的石油港股和A股出现了进一步的股价背离现象。我这个在港股中一贯挣钱的人(因为以前下仓一直猥琐且怂,最近赚钱飘了就亏)也因此迎来了投资以来的最大一笔败绩,下注中国石化港股价值修复直接回吐全部利润的1/3。表面逻辑是美股的石油股下滑低迷拖动港股估值向其靠拢,这让我一开始不是很能理解,为何石油价格已经修复突破40美元,石化企业的低迷却仍旧持续?直到我在生活中看到大量关于光伏产业的新闻和深度评述(让我彻底意识到的是在观视频马督工的一期讲到光伏发电的成本已经接近甚至超越火电)才明白:大人,时代变了!为何机构持续狂热加注太阳能?实在是这个行业的增长逻辑过于清晰,行业潜力以及影响力百年难遇。用百年难遇这个词真的一点也不夸张。毕竟人生短暂,我们又能遇到几次人类能源史上的转折点呢?你是能买到蒸汽机发明,从而开启辉煌的现代文明?还是第一桶石油被炼化,金色的能量喷薄而出?抑或是未来的可控核聚变,从此步入星辰的大海?但你可以买到太阳能取代化石燃料!于是痛定思痛,一刀切了石油,拿剩下的钱全部买入光伏。天予不取,反受其咎。 ","text":"$晶科能源(JKS)$$中国石油化工股份(00386)$$福莱特玻璃(06865)$最近的石油港股和A股出现了进一步的股价背离现象。我这个在港股中一贯挣钱的人(因为以前下仓一直猥琐且怂,最近赚钱飘了就亏)也因此迎来了投资以来的最大一笔败绩,下注中国石化港股价值修复直接回吐全部利润的1/3。表面逻辑是美股的石油股下滑低迷拖动港股估值向其靠拢,这让我一开始不是很能理解,为何石油价格已经修复突破40美元,石化企业的低迷却仍旧持续?直到我在生活中看到大量关于光伏产业的新闻和深度评述(让我彻底意识到的是在观视频马督工的一期讲到光伏发电的成本已经接近甚至超越火电)才明白:大人,时代变了!为何机构持续狂热加注太阳能?实在是这个行业的增长逻辑过于清晰,行业潜力以及影响力百年难遇。用百年难遇这个词真的一点也不夸张。毕竟人生短暂,我们又能遇到几次人类能源史上的转折点呢?你是能买到蒸汽机发明,从而开启辉煌的现代文明?还是第一桶石油被炼化,金色的能量喷薄而出?抑或是未来的可控核聚变,从此步入星辰的大海?但你可以买到太阳能取代化石燃料!于是痛定思痛,一刀切了石油,拿剩下的钱全部买入光伏。天予不取,反受其咎。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94a428e8a3542281ab57875aa099afe","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":40,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300483637","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3453015872869984","authorId":"3453015872869984","name":"待注销","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/535b75e083ea8acf7ba19fdb0725b56b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3453015872869984","authorIdStr":"3453015872869984"},"content":"石油股的走势和经济形势正相关,经济差的时候石油股起不来","text":"石油股的走势和经济形势正相关,经济差的时候石油股起不来","html":"石油股的走势和经济形势正相关,经济差的时候石油股起不来"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":900581502,"gmtCreate":1555637161006,"gmtModify":1704799391598,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$直觉外科公司(ISRG)$财报: 该公司公布第一季度净利润为3.065亿美元,合每股2.56美元,上年同期为2.876亿美元,合每股2.44美元。调整后的每股收益为2.61美元。营收从上年同期的8.475亿美元增至9.737亿美元。接受FactSet调查的分析师此前预计该公司每股盈利2.70美元,营收9.753亿美元。","listText":"$直觉外科公司(ISRG)$财报: 该公司公布第一季度净利润为3.065亿美元,合每股2.56美元,上年同期为2.876亿美元,合每股2.44美元。调整后的每股收益为2.61美元。营收从上年同期的8.475亿美元增至9.737亿美元。接受FactSet调查的分析师此前预计该公司每股盈利2.70美元,营收9.753亿美元。","text":"$直觉外科公司(ISRG)$财报: 该公司公布第一季度净利润为3.065亿美元,合每股2.56美元,上年同期为2.876亿美元,合每股2.44美元。调整后的每股收益为2.61美元。营收从上年同期的8.475亿美元增至9.737亿美元。接受FactSet调查的分析师此前预计该公司每股盈利2.70美元,营收9.753亿美元。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/900581502","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"content":"年增长率配50倍市盈率很吃力,感觉还要大跌。不过看好的人一直很多,为什么那么多人总觉得明年后年会爆发??还好之前暴涨时选择了等回调再入的策略。","text":"年增长率配50倍市盈率很吃力,感觉还要大跌。不过看好的人一直很多,为什么那么多人总觉得明年后年会爆发??还好之前暴涨时选择了等回调再入的策略。","html":"年增长率配50倍市盈率很吃力,感觉还要大跌。不过看好的人一直很多,为什么那么多人总觉得明年后年会爆发??还好之前暴涨时选择了等回调再入的策略。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319144392,"gmtCreate":1611560390816,"gmtModify":1703750902705,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>大陆基金开始把哄抢茅台和抱团行动的坏习惯给带到港股来了。比腾讯更值得投资的地方却如枯井一般寂静。虽超预期盈利,内心并不欢喜。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>大陆基金开始把哄抢茅台和抱团行动的坏习惯给带到港股来了。比腾讯更值得投资的地方却如枯井一般寂静。虽超预期盈利,内心并不欢喜。","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$大陆基金开始把哄抢茅台和抱团行动的坏习惯给带到港股来了。比腾讯更值得投资的地方却如枯井一般寂静。虽超预期盈利,内心并不欢喜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319144392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3564460477957596","authorId":"3564460477957596","name":"7065tobs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06e06aacf1ff7ec15be5b61ec3950342","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564460477957596","authorIdStr":"3564460477957596"},"content":"那些是更值得投资?求!🙏","text":"那些是更值得投资?求!🙏","html":"那些是更值得投资?求!🙏"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":433274,"gmtCreate":1552961708574,"gmtModify":1704793552827,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$阅文集团(00772)$ 自2017年11月完成上市以来,最大的问题一直和小米一样,估值过高,ep惊人,最后果然崩不住,这次财报虽然涨了,但个人感觉增速仍对不起这个ep。 看空到30以下考虑出筑底波形可入,看好远期未来。","listText":"$阅文集团(00772)$ 自2017年11月完成上市以来,最大的问题一直和小米一样,估值过高,ep惊人,最后果然崩不住,这次财报虽然涨了,但个人感觉增速仍对不起这个ep。 看空到30以下考虑出筑底波形可入,看好远期未来。","text":"$阅文集团(00772)$ 自2017年11月完成上市以来,最大的问题一直和小米一样,估值过高,ep惊人,最后果然崩不住,这次财报虽然涨了,但个人感觉增速仍对不起这个ep。 看空到30以下考虑出筑底波形可入,看好远期未来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/433274","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493097319011195","authorId":"3493097319011195","name":"财经正弦波","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567842adeba82a7e9a4260ab38cdb970","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493097319011195","authorIdStr":"3493097319011195"},"content":"45倍的PE还可以呀","text":"45倍的PE还可以呀","html":"45倍的PE还可以呀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367090659,"gmtCreate":1614881442971,"gmtModify":1703482533329,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>清仓,看烟花。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>清仓,看烟花。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$标普500(.SPX)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$清仓,看烟花。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367090659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3520766438256092","authorId":"3520766438256092","name":"卡卡先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5072cdea13a1b5a8e580c54224f4d68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3520766438256092","authorIdStr":"3520766438256092"},"content":"熔断,全场看空","text":"熔断,全场看空","html":"熔断,全场看空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301653429,"gmtCreate":1603473876361,"gmtModify":1703830126590,"author":{"id":"3497823258884148","authorId":"3497823258884148","name":"华尔街的同志们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e567306e92e984db763f8cbda4fec44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497823258884148","authorIdStr":"3497823258884148"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">$晶科能源(JKS)$</a>在明知财报增长50%以上的时候somebody最该干的是什么?1配合大选的紧张情绪拼命砸盘吸货,知道某家公司的底在哪里才是最重要的。2太阳能整体盘面过热,追随在其之前发布财报的公司趋势,(目前整体行业走势一致,多看几家就知道了,每天的股价只有高低之分而无形状之别)如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLR\">$第一太阳能(FSLR)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SEDG\">$SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.(SEDG)$</a>财报后刻意压制3天,杀完1120的call,12月螺旋升天,期间波动会继续保持在每天10个点稀疏平常的状态,扩波动,双杀爆仓。一匹脱缰的野马,终要驰骋在踏实的土地上。至于大选有什么影响,没有,只要美丽国没有发生实质性的动乱就没有。谁上台都一个政策,只要不卖国。毕竟美丽国只能往那一个方向狂飙突进。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">$晶科能源(JKS)$</a>在明知财报增长50%以上的时候somebody最该干的是什么?1配合大选的紧张情绪拼命砸盘吸货,知道某家公司的底在哪里才是最重要的。2太阳能整体盘面过热,追随在其之前发布财报的公司趋势,(目前整体行业走势一致,多看几家就知道了,每天的股价只有高低之分而无形状之别)如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLR\">$第一太阳能(FSLR)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SEDG\">$SolarEdge Technologies, 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