王天山的个人主页 - 老虎社区

王天山

王天山

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IP属地：广东

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2023-08-08

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 甘薇看了一眼股价，哭哭啼啼的找许家印去了

2023-06-06

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$

2023-05-31

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 乐傻们，一片寂静无声……一摸都凉了！

2023-05-31

不行了，乐傻已经窒息了！速进 lcu

2023-05-31

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 乐傻一片安静……

2022-11-19

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 贾勾世界第一画饼家！

2022-11-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$每天收盘打回原形。

2022-11-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$还有6个月就要退市了！别听乐傻们的自我施肥疗法！

2022-11-07

贾总的画饼技术也达到天庭水平

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-05

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$要求退市了？

2022-11-04

画饼届的天花板

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-04

画饼届的天花板

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-04

画饼届的天花板、跟共学的

Chinese Tycoon Spent 8 Years, $3 Billion on EV That Went Unbuilt

2022-08-11

做空进行时

2022-08-04

$满帮(YMM)$全仓做空、吸血公司早早关门

2022-08-04

吸血公司早早关门！

网络货运平台遭约谈背后：货车司机为啥挣得少？

2020-05-11

$MacroGenics Inc.(MGNX)$刚做空有汤喝吗

2020-05-08

$美国钢铁(X)$比没疫情股价都高，看不懂

2020-05-08

熔断的时候要来了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-07

$赫兹(HTZ)$被收购了，拉了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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乐傻一片安静……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182404420632664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4124318481312602","authorId":"4124318481312602","name":"亲爱的苏东坡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d60b7f314a0b1b2a71bc5431f2b11c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4124318481312602","authorIdStr":"4124318481312602"},"content":"涨捧跌踩，那是不是等下涨起来就可以喷你了，股票涨跌不是很正常，看中期趋势","text":"涨捧跌踩，那是不是等下涨起来就可以喷你了，股票涨跌不是很正常，看中期趋势","html":"涨捧跌踩，那是不是等下涨起来就可以喷你了，股票涨跌不是很正常，看中期趋势"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667292798,"gmtCreate":1668809604714,"gmtModify":1668809605585,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Future(FFIE)$还有6个月就要退市了！别听乐傻们的自我施肥疗法！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664369099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664922331,"gmtCreate":1667750501523,"gmtModify":1667784600129,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"贾总的画饼技术也达到天庭水平","listText":"贾总的画饼技术也达到天庭水平","text":"贾总的画饼技术也达到天庭水平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664922331","repostId":"2280252071","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664937867,"gmtCreate":1667662554359,"gmtModify":1667662555359,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Future(FFIE)$要求退市了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664937867","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4105019856248890","authorId":"4105019856248890","name":"NO1宇宙股神降龙23掌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598047e2d3320117ca3306e057f8f603","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4105019856248890","authorIdStr":"4105019856248890"},"content":"没事，1+6个月呢！","text":"没事，1+6个月呢！","html":"没事，1+6个月呢！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664034066,"gmtCreate":1667550438955,"gmtModify":1667550441765,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"画饼届的天花板","listText":"画饼届的天花板","text":"画饼届的天花板","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664034066","repostId":"2280252071","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665787884,"gmtCreate":1667494632048,"gmtModify":1667494634827,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"画饼届的天花板","listText":"画饼届的天花板","text":"画饼届的天花板","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665787884","repostId":"2280856025","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665784866,"gmtCreate":1667494083756,"gmtModify":1667494086555,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"画饼届的天花板、跟共学的","listText":"画饼届的天花板、跟共学的","text":"画饼届的天花板、跟共学的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665784866","repostId":"2280856025","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2280856025","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667435169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2280856025?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-03 08:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Tycoon Spent 8 Years, $3 Billion on EV That Went Unbuilt","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2280856025","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The image arrived in Susan Swenson’s inbox on a Wednesday evening. Her corporate headshot had been c","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c265999899503b6b733033373bdcc49f\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The image arrived in Susan Swenson’s inbox on a Wednesday evening. Her corporate headshot had been crudely crossed out in digital red ink, and the word “Kill” was written in the bottom left corner. In the hours that followed, some of her colleagues received similar threats, including messages that referenced the recent assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.</p><p>The menacing emails marked the apex of a months-long fight for control over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a> Intelligent Electric Inc., a Los Angeles, California-based publicly traded electric vehicle startup that once billed itself as the next Tesla. In September, after the death threats, persistent pressure from Faraday’s largest shareholders, and a surprising cameo from property giant China Evergrande Group, Swenson, the executive chair, and three others agreed to leave Faraday’s board of directors in a sweeping restructuring.</p><p>While it’s not known who sent the death threats -- the company has referred them to the FBI -- some leaders inside Faraday believe they were inspired by the boardroom fight recently waged by its largest shareholders, including a group that is partially managed by the startup’s founder, exiled Chinese tycoon Jia Yueting. (The group, FF Global Partners, denies any involvement in the threats.) Bloomberg News spoke to three people familiar with the situation who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, and reviewed dozens of public regulatory and court filings for this story. Faraday Future did not respond to a list of questions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca6c01973b2559cb3a77c808a5641cd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Jia YuetingPhotographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Seven months ago, Faraday’s board sidelined Jia, who goes by YT, following an internal probe that examined his influence over day-to-day operations, as well as a series of loans employees made to the startup over the years. Now, he stands to benefit greatly from the impending board shakeup, which will be completed when Faraday holds its delayed annual meeting. He has been named an adviser to the board, and FF Global will have input on all six new members. As Faraday put it in a recent SEC filing, “YT Jia and FF Global have strengthened their already significant influence over the Company.”</p><p>But as YT reclaims power, it is over a company that’s under investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in relation to the findings of the internal probe -- information the Department of Justice has inquired about, too, according to Faraday. The startup also needs money, fast. After burning through more than $3 billion since it launched eight years ago, Faraday reported just $27 million in cash on Oct. 25th, and says it needs millions more if it hopes to finally ship its elusive SUV.</p><h2>Debt Binge</h2><p>YT ascended in China during the early 2010s, when a tsunami of cash flowed to founders with big visions. He started the “Netflix of China” and parlayed its success into a conglomerate called LeEco, which made everything from smartphones to Android-powered e-bikes. Its expansion was fueled by billions of dollars in debt, and YT personally guaranteed many of the loans. At one point, he pledged 97 percent of his shares in LeEco’s listed arm in exchange for nearly $2 billion, according to the New York Times.</p><p>Read more: Outspoken Billionaire Works to Salvage His Tech Empire in China</p><p>Meanwhile, Elon Musk was turning the auto industry on its head. Investors started placing big bets on finding the next Tesla Inc., and dozens of EV startups took root in China and the US. It was in this competitive environment that YT founded Faraday in California in 2014, betting he could beat Musk at his own game.</p><p>Eventually, LeEco crumbled under the weight of YT’s ambition. In 2017 it laid off hundreds of employees, abandoned a $2 billion acquisition of TV-maker Vizio, Inc., and halted a US expansion. Chinese creditors started pursuing LeEco, and YT. The tycoon landed on a government debtor blacklist and had some assets frozen. So he moved to the US and hunkered down with Faraday.</p><p>YT’s connection to Faraday was initially hard to discern. The company had no publicly named CEO, and early executives declined to say where the money came from. According to court filings, it was coming through YT -- some $900 million or so over its first few years. He spent much of it hoovering up talent from the likes of Tesla and General Motors Co. -- including a large swath of the team that created the EV1, the Detroit automaker’s first attempt at a mass-market EV.</p><h2>Custody Battles</h2><p>Faraday struggled to meet YT’s ambitions. He wanted an ultra-luxe EV packed with fancy technology. But by late 2017, months after revealing its first prototype, the company was running out of cash.</p><p>YT brought in a pair of former BMW executives, but when they proposed filing for Chapter 11 protection, the tycoon bucked. A restructuring would have jeopardized his control of the company, according to a person familiar with the matter, so he resisted. The executives resigned, and Faraday accused them of “dereliction of duty.”</p><p>At the end of 2017 YT found an unlikely savior in China Evergrande Group, which pledged to inject up to $2 billion into Faraday in exchange for a 45% stake. YT also officially took over as CEO. Faraday spent the first $800 million ahead of schedule. Evergrande agreed to advance another $700 million in mid-2018, according to filings from a Hong Kong arbitration case between the two companies, but on the condition that YT step aside and sacrifice his ownership.</p><p>YT obliged -- at least on paper. He transferred his stake to the daughter of a Faraday vice president, which the Chinese property giant argued was not far enough. The new money never came, and in late 2018 YT and Faraday sued Evergrande in US court, claiming the property giant was “deliberately starving” the EV startup. Evergrande accused YT of “acting as a shadow director controlling or directing the decisions of directors closely associated with him.” The property giant did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Faraday had to furlough and lay off hundreds of employees, and suppliers hounded the startup with lawsuits. Nick Sampson, a former Tesla executive and Faraday co-founder, walked away. “The company is effectively insolvent,” he said in his resignation letter.</p><p>On the final day of 2018, Faraday and Evergrande struck a truce. Evergrande agreed to reduce its stake to roughly 33%, and allowed Faraday to seek other investors. The property giant gave Faraday a $10 million bridge loan, and YT’s startup survived with him at the helm.</p><p>Creative Fundraising</p><p>These bitter disputes -- each centered around YT’s control of the company -- made it hard for Faraday to raise money. In 2019, the company made some moves that appeared to dilute the founder’s power: it set up a management group called FF Global Partners, that received a chunk of YT’s ownership. (It now owns around 30% of Faraday.) YT was also replaced as CEO by a different former BMW executive, Carsten Breitfeld.</p><p>By October, YT filed for personal bankruptcy in the US to settle billions of LeEco debt he’d guaranteed. Creditors exchanged their claims for slices of a trust that owned Faraday Future shares, allowing some repayment if the startup was acquired or went public -- giving many of YT’s foes a tangible interest in his company’s success.</p><p>What kept Faraday afloat during all of this was a series of more than a dozen loans made to the company by employees or parties related to YT, according to SEC filings.</p><p>In April 2019, the company received a $9 million loan from an employee in Faraday’s Global Capital Markets department, funded by Ocean View Drive, Inc., a California corporation YT established in 2014 in order to buy three mansions on the Pacific coastline. (YT no longer controls it, according to Faraday’s SEC filings, though the current owner is the spouse of his nephew, Ruokun Jia, who also worked at Faraday.) In July, another employee from the same department loaned Faraday $16.5 million. That loan was funded by FF Global Partners LLC, whose members borrowed the money from a Delaware LLC called “Dream Sunrise,” which in turn borrowed its funding from an LLC owned by Ruokun Jia’s spouse.</p><p>Asked about these loans, a spokesperson for FF Global said Faraday was “unable to obtain significant third-party financing” at the time, and so it instead had to rely on “numerous smaller-scale financings that YT Jia helped facilitate,” which the group said is a “typical financing approach for founder-led startups.”</p><p>“Over the past several years, YT Jia and FF Global Partners have rescued FFIE many times,” the spokesperson said.</p><p>Even after this series of multi-layered transactions, Faraday still needed a $9.2 million loan from the Paycheck Protection Program to ride out the pandemic downturn. With just $1.8 million in the bank at the end of the year, Faraday tapped into the sudden boom of special purpose acquisition company mergers, which helped turn peers like Nikola Corp, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOEV\">Canoo Inc.</a>, and Fisker Inc. into public companies. The startup partnered with a SPAC run by two brothers from the New York City real estate industry, Jordan and Scott Vogel. Not only did they see promise in Faraday’s EV tech, according to two of the people familiar with the matter, but they were told -- and believed -- YT was no longer in control.</p><p>That deal came together in early 2021. By July, Faraday netted $1 billion and started trading on the Nasdaq, with institutional backing from Citadel Advisors, China’s largest private automaker Geely, and data company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> Breitfeld promised to start building the SUV within 12 months.</p><h2>Board Fight</h2><p>The Vogels joined Faraday’s board following the merger, as did Swenson. Within three months the board opened a probe into YT, run by a special committee spearheaded by Swenson. The committee hired Kirkland &amp; Ellis and forensic accounting firm Alvarez and Marsal to examine his interpersonal and financial influence on the company.</p><p>The committee concluded that senior managers had misled investors about how much day-to-day control YT maintained over Faraday, according to an April filing with the SEC. They also found senior managers did not properly disclose “certain relationships, arrangements, and transactions” involving YT. YT was officially sidelined and stripped of his executive status. Ruokun Jia was “terminated for conduct during the Special Committee’s investigation.” (Jia did not respond to a message seeking comment.)</p><p>Faraday has said that FF Global began pushing back on the disciplinary actions as far back as February. By June, FF Global started issuing public filings agitating to replace one of Faraday’s directors, Brian Krolicki. The public spillover disrupted a funding round with Citi, according to the people familiar, and in July, Faraday once again delayed the launch of its EV, saying it needed more money to start production.</p><p>Meanwhile, the company started getting peppered with emails from “self-described ‘employee whistleblowers’” that painted these members of the board as villains. A group of employees who work closely with YT circulated a letter, seen by Bloomberg, that claimed Swenson had “conducted a series of unfair and improper investigations and remediation to the company and its core executives.” Swenson, Krolicki, and the Vogels declined to comment for this story.</p><p>FF Global agrees, saying to Bloomberg News that the group “does not believe that the Special Committee investigation was performed fairly,” and that the probe “unfairly targeted for punishment people associated with FFGP.”</p><p>This fight culminated with FF Global suing Faraday in Delaware Chancery Court on Sept. 19, accusing the board of breaching its fiduciary duty. FF Global pushed for Swenson’s removal, and cited a key bit of leverage: that Evergrande, which still holds about 20.5% of Faraday following the 2021 merger, supported FF Global’s efforts to remake the board.</p><p>That’s when the death threats surfaced. Krolicki received a similar image to the one that arrived in Swenson’s inbox, and other directors including the Vogels were flooded with hateful messages in the days that followed.</p><h2>Who’s the Boss</h2><p>On Sept. 26, Faraday announced a truce. FF Global agreed to drop the lawsuit and arrange for roughly $100 million in near-term financing. In exchange, Swenson, Krolicki, and the Vogels agreed to leave the board at the next shareholder meeting. A week later, Swenson and the Vogels resigned early citing “threats and their fear that their continued association with the company might heighten the risk to themselves and their respective families,” according to Faraday. Krolicki resigned earlier this week.</p><p>Whenever that next shareholder meeting happens -- Faraday has yet to set a date -- the startup has agreed to completely overhaul the board from 10 members to just seven. FF Global will choose three. Three more will be chosen by a panel made up of Breitfeld, FF Global’s replacement for Swenson, and a current manager of FF Global. Breitfeld is also the seventh board member.</p><p>Breitfeld’s name didn’t come up much in FF Global’s battle for the board, and the people familiar with the fight say his alliances can be hard to parse. He was a manager of FF Global until this past May. He lived in one of the California mansions that used to be owned by YT. He has also been a force in pitch meetings, the people say, which is maybe why his contract -- set to expire in September -- was recently extended to March 2023. Breitfeld did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>However instrumental Breitfeld has been to Faraday’s survival, or its failures, he has spent the last few years with YT looking over his shoulder -- literally, at times. In some meetings, one of the people recalled, as Breitfeld took his place at the head of a conference table, YT would pull a chair up next to him. The implication was clear, this person said. In good times, and especially in bad ones, this is always going to be YT’s company.</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Tycoon Spent 8 Years, $3 Billion on EV That Went Unbuilt</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Tycoon Spent 8 Years, $3 Billion on EV That Went Unbuilt\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-03 08:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-tycoon-spent-8-years-130007709.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The image arrived in Susan Swenson’s inbox on a Wednesday evening. Her corporate headshot had been crudely crossed out in digital red ink, and the word “Kill” was written in the bottom left corner. In...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-tycoon-spent-8-years-130007709.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday Future"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-tycoon-spent-8-years-130007709.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2280856025","content_text":"The image arrived in Susan Swenson’s inbox on a Wednesday evening. Her corporate headshot had been crudely crossed out in digital red ink, and the word “Kill” was written in the bottom left corner. In the hours that followed, some of her colleagues received similar threats, including messages that referenced the recent assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.The menacing emails marked the apex of a months-long fight for control over Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., a Los Angeles, California-based publicly traded electric vehicle startup that once billed itself as the next Tesla. In September, after the death threats, persistent pressure from Faraday’s largest shareholders, and a surprising cameo from property giant China Evergrande Group, Swenson, the executive chair, and three others agreed to leave Faraday’s board of directors in a sweeping restructuring.While it’s not known who sent the death threats -- the company has referred them to the FBI -- some leaders inside Faraday believe they were inspired by the boardroom fight recently waged by its largest shareholders, including a group that is partially managed by the startup’s founder, exiled Chinese tycoon Jia Yueting. (The group, FF Global Partners, denies any involvement in the threats.) Bloomberg News spoke to three people familiar with the situation who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, and reviewed dozens of public regulatory and court filings for this story. Faraday Future did not respond to a list of questions.Jia YuetingPhotographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergSeven months ago, Faraday’s board sidelined Jia, who goes by YT, following an internal probe that examined his influence over day-to-day operations, as well as a series of loans employees made to the startup over the years. Now, he stands to benefit greatly from the impending board shakeup, which will be completed when Faraday holds its delayed annual meeting. He has been named an adviser to the board, and FF Global will have input on all six new members. As Faraday put it in a recent SEC filing, “YT Jia and FF Global have strengthened their already significant influence over the Company.”But as YT reclaims power, it is over a company that’s under investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in relation to the findings of the internal probe -- information the Department of Justice has inquired about, too, according to Faraday. The startup also needs money, fast. After burning through more than $3 billion since it launched eight years ago, Faraday reported just $27 million in cash on Oct. 25th, and says it needs millions more if it hopes to finally ship its elusive SUV.Debt BingeYT ascended in China during the early 2010s, when a tsunami of cash flowed to founders with big visions. He started the “Netflix of China” and parlayed its success into a conglomerate called LeEco, which made everything from smartphones to Android-powered e-bikes. Its expansion was fueled by billions of dollars in debt, and YT personally guaranteed many of the loans. At one point, he pledged 97 percent of his shares in LeEco’s listed arm in exchange for nearly $2 billion, according to the New York Times.Read more: Outspoken Billionaire Works to Salvage His Tech Empire in ChinaMeanwhile, Elon Musk was turning the auto industry on its head. Investors started placing big bets on finding the next Tesla Inc., and dozens of EV startups took root in China and the US. It was in this competitive environment that YT founded Faraday in California in 2014, betting he could beat Musk at his own game.Eventually, LeEco crumbled under the weight of YT’s ambition. In 2017 it laid off hundreds of employees, abandoned a $2 billion acquisition of TV-maker Vizio, Inc., and halted a US expansion. Chinese creditors started pursuing LeEco, and YT. The tycoon landed on a government debtor blacklist and had some assets frozen. So he moved to the US and hunkered down with Faraday.YT’s connection to Faraday was initially hard to discern. The company had no publicly named CEO, and early executives declined to say where the money came from. According to court filings, it was coming through YT -- some $900 million or so over its first few years. He spent much of it hoovering up talent from the likes of Tesla and General Motors Co. -- including a large swath of the team that created the EV1, the Detroit automaker’s first attempt at a mass-market EV.Custody BattlesFaraday struggled to meet YT’s ambitions. He wanted an ultra-luxe EV packed with fancy technology. But by late 2017, months after revealing its first prototype, the company was running out of cash.YT brought in a pair of former BMW executives, but when they proposed filing for Chapter 11 protection, the tycoon bucked. A restructuring would have jeopardized his control of the company, according to a person familiar with the matter, so he resisted. The executives resigned, and Faraday accused them of “dereliction of duty.”At the end of 2017 YT found an unlikely savior in China Evergrande Group, which pledged to inject up to $2 billion into Faraday in exchange for a 45% stake. YT also officially took over as CEO. Faraday spent the first $800 million ahead of schedule. Evergrande agreed to advance another $700 million in mid-2018, according to filings from a Hong Kong arbitration case between the two companies, but on the condition that YT step aside and sacrifice his ownership.YT obliged -- at least on paper. He transferred his stake to the daughter of a Faraday vice president, which the Chinese property giant argued was not far enough. The new money never came, and in late 2018 YT and Faraday sued Evergrande in US court, claiming the property giant was “deliberately starving” the EV startup. Evergrande accused YT of “acting as a shadow director controlling or directing the decisions of directors closely associated with him.” The property giant did not respond to a request for comment.Faraday had to furlough and lay off hundreds of employees, and suppliers hounded the startup with lawsuits. Nick Sampson, a former Tesla executive and Faraday co-founder, walked away. “The company is effectively insolvent,” he said in his resignation letter.On the final day of 2018, Faraday and Evergrande struck a truce. Evergrande agreed to reduce its stake to roughly 33%, and allowed Faraday to seek other investors. The property giant gave Faraday a $10 million bridge loan, and YT’s startup survived with him at the helm.Creative FundraisingThese bitter disputes -- each centered around YT’s control of the company -- made it hard for Faraday to raise money. In 2019, the company made some moves that appeared to dilute the founder’s power: it set up a management group called FF Global Partners, that received a chunk of YT’s ownership. (It now owns around 30% of Faraday.) YT was also replaced as CEO by a different former BMW executive, Carsten Breitfeld.By October, YT filed for personal bankruptcy in the US to settle billions of LeEco debt he’d guaranteed. Creditors exchanged their claims for slices of a trust that owned Faraday Future shares, allowing some repayment if the startup was acquired or went public -- giving many of YT’s foes a tangible interest in his company’s success.What kept Faraday afloat during all of this was a series of more than a dozen loans made to the company by employees or parties related to YT, according to SEC filings.In April 2019, the company received a $9 million loan from an employee in Faraday’s Global Capital Markets department, funded by Ocean View Drive, Inc., a California corporation YT established in 2014 in order to buy three mansions on the Pacific coastline. (YT no longer controls it, according to Faraday’s SEC filings, though the current owner is the spouse of his nephew, Ruokun Jia, who also worked at Faraday.) In July, another employee from the same department loaned Faraday $16.5 million. That loan was funded by FF Global Partners LLC, whose members borrowed the money from a Delaware LLC called “Dream Sunrise,” which in turn borrowed its funding from an LLC owned by Ruokun Jia’s spouse.Asked about these loans, a spokesperson for FF Global said Faraday was “unable to obtain significant third-party financing” at the time, and so it instead had to rely on “numerous smaller-scale financings that YT Jia helped facilitate,” which the group said is a “typical financing approach for founder-led startups.”“Over the past several years, YT Jia and FF Global Partners have rescued FFIE many times,” the spokesperson said.Even after this series of multi-layered transactions, Faraday still needed a $9.2 million loan from the Paycheck Protection Program to ride out the pandemic downturn. With just $1.8 million in the bank at the end of the year, Faraday tapped into the sudden boom of special purpose acquisition company mergers, which helped turn peers like Nikola Corp, Canoo Inc., and Fisker Inc. into public companies. The startup partnered with a SPAC run by two brothers from the New York City real estate industry, Jordan and Scott Vogel. Not only did they see promise in Faraday’s EV tech, according to two of the people familiar with the matter, but they were told -- and believed -- YT was no longer in control.That deal came together in early 2021. By July, Faraday netted $1 billion and started trading on the Nasdaq, with institutional backing from Citadel Advisors, China’s largest private automaker Geely, and data company Palantir Technologies Inc. Breitfeld promised to start building the SUV within 12 months.Board FightThe Vogels joined Faraday’s board following the merger, as did Swenson. Within three months the board opened a probe into YT, run by a special committee spearheaded by Swenson. The committee hired Kirkland & Ellis and forensic accounting firm Alvarez and Marsal to examine his interpersonal and financial influence on the company.The committee concluded that senior managers had misled investors about how much day-to-day control YT maintained over Faraday, according to an April filing with the SEC. They also found senior managers did not properly disclose “certain relationships, arrangements, and transactions” involving YT. YT was officially sidelined and stripped of his executive status. Ruokun Jia was “terminated for conduct during the Special Committee’s investigation.” (Jia did not respond to a message seeking comment.)Faraday has said that FF Global began pushing back on the disciplinary actions as far back as February. By June, FF Global started issuing public filings agitating to replace one of Faraday’s directors, Brian Krolicki. The public spillover disrupted a funding round with Citi, according to the people familiar, and in July, Faraday once again delayed the launch of its EV, saying it needed more money to start production.Meanwhile, the company started getting peppered with emails from “self-described ‘employee whistleblowers’” that painted these members of the board as villains. A group of employees who work closely with YT circulated a letter, seen by Bloomberg, that claimed Swenson had “conducted a series of unfair and improper investigations and remediation to the company and its core executives.” Swenson, Krolicki, and the Vogels declined to comment for this story.FF Global agrees, saying to Bloomberg News that the group “does not believe that the Special Committee investigation was performed fairly,” and that the probe “unfairly targeted for punishment people associated with FFGP.”This fight culminated with FF Global suing Faraday in Delaware Chancery Court on Sept. 19, accusing the board of breaching its fiduciary duty. FF Global pushed for Swenson’s removal, and cited a key bit of leverage: that Evergrande, which still holds about 20.5% of Faraday following the 2021 merger, supported FF Global’s efforts to remake the board.That’s when the death threats surfaced. Krolicki received a similar image to the one that arrived in Swenson’s inbox, and other directors including the Vogels were flooded with hateful messages in the days that followed.Who’s the BossOn Sept. 26, Faraday announced a truce. FF Global agreed to drop the lawsuit and arrange for roughly $100 million in near-term financing. In exchange, Swenson, Krolicki, and the Vogels agreed to leave the board at the next shareholder meeting. A week later, Swenson and the Vogels resigned early citing “threats and their fear that their continued association with the company might heighten the risk to themselves and their respective families,” according to Faraday. Krolicki resigned earlier this week.Whenever that next shareholder meeting happens -- Faraday has yet to set a date -- the startup has agreed to completely overhaul the board from 10 members to just seven. FF Global will choose three. Three more will be chosen by a panel made up of Breitfeld, FF Global’s replacement for Swenson, and a current manager of FF Global. Breitfeld is also the seventh board member.Breitfeld’s name didn’t come up much in FF Global’s battle for the board, and the people familiar with the fight say his alliances can be hard to parse. He was a manager of FF Global until this past May. He lived in one of the California mansions that used to be owned by YT. He has also been a force in pitch meetings, the people say, which is maybe why his contract -- set to expire in September -- was recently extended to March 2023. Breitfeld did not respond to a request for comment.However instrumental Breitfeld has been to Faraday’s survival, or its failures, he has spent the last few years with YT looking over his shoulder -- literally, at times. In some meetings, one of the people recalled, as Breitfeld took his place at the head of a conference table, YT would pull a chair up next to him. The implication was clear, this person said. In good times, and especially in bad ones, this is always going to be YT’s company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684875622,"gmtCreate":1660227503471,"gmtModify":1660227503471,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"做空进行时","listText":"做空进行时","text":"做空进行时","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684875622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685885974,"gmtCreate":1659552144602,"gmtModify":1659563551548,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>全仓做空、吸血公司早早关门","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>全仓做空、吸血公司早早关门","text":"$满帮(YMM)$全仓做空、吸血公司早早关门","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685885974","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685882506,"gmtCreate":1659551761509,"gmtModify":1659551761509,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"吸血公司早早关门！","listText":"吸血公司早早关门！","text":"吸血公司早早关门！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685882506","repostId":"2256649914","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2256649914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659421500,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2256649914?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-02 14:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"网络货运平台遭约谈背后：货车司机为啥挣得少？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256649914","media":"中国新闻周刊","summary":"　　用9.6米长的厢式货车，运一单重量为17吨到18吨的电子产品。货车司机小余输入货运信息后，货车帮货主App给出了7450元/趟的指导报价。　　这不是作为国内最大互联网长途货运平台的满帮第一次遭遇司机围攻。当时，四家平台均表示将按照约谈要求，对存在的问题积极整改。　　7月8日，交通运输部在两年内第三次约谈货拉拉、满帮、快狗打车、滴滴货运，通报平台压价竞争、多重收费、违规运营等损害货车司机合法权益的问题。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　记者/王宇</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　用9.6米长的厢式货车，运一单重量为17吨到18吨的电子产品。货物用纸箱包装，体积在45m³到55m³之间，从广州市花都区出发，到青岛市市南区卸货，走高速，路程近1900公里。货车司机小余输入货运信息后，货车帮货主App给出了7450元/趟的指导报价。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　成本呢？货运有两项大额刚性支出：路桥费和燃油费。高速通行费约4000元，9.6米的满载厢货，百公里烧40升柴油，按广东省一升柴油8.48元的价格计算，燃油成本超过6000元。也就是说，运这一趟货物的刚性支出超过10000元。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“这就是最近货运价格大跳水的原因。”愤怒的小余将作为货主的整个发单过程发布在短视频平台上，评论区里，许多留言号召“全国停运”“打倒<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　这不是作为国内最大互联网长途货运平台的满帮第一次遭遇司机围攻。2017年11月，由运满满与货车帮合并后成立的满帮，成为国内最大的长途货运撮合交易平台。三个月后，成为龙头的满帮开始尝试向货主和司机两方收取服务费，消息一出，立即引起司机的不满。从那时起，司机对满帮的愤怒伴随运价的持续走低而不断酝酿。疫情暴发后，货车司机处境愈发艰难，与满帮等互联网货运平台的矛盾则日益尖锐。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　此间，交通运输部已就平台抽成比例高、分配机制不公开透明、随意调整计价规则、恶意压低运价等问题，于2021年5月和2022年1月，两度约谈以跨城运输为主的满帮，及以同城运输为主的货拉拉、滴滴货运、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02246\">快狗打车</a>。当时，四家平台均表示将按照约谈要求，对存在的问题积极整改。然而，司机对平台的不满在今年6月再次爆发，多地司机号召停运，以抵制平台和低价运单。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　7月8日，交通运输部在两年内第三次约谈货拉拉、满帮、快狗打车、滴滴货运，通报平台压价竞争、多重收费、违规运营等损害货车司机合法权益的问题。约谈要求平台提高站位、正视问题，立即对压价竞争行为进行整改，着力规范平台收费行为，坚决消除超载超限、违规载客、运输违禁品等安全隐患，向社会公开抽成比例或会员费上限。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">备受争议的“平台参考价”</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　7月22日，小余又发出一条视频，显示5吨到6吨货物，用4.2米的厢货，货主出价400元/趟，平台收取技术服务费15元。评论区里有司机猜，这是一趟140公里的货单的报价。小余回复：“260公里，你信不？”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　武汉司机张涛给《中国新闻周刊》发来的订单显示，一趟由武汉东西湖发往宁波北仑的货，预估里程970公里，4.2米的冷藏车，装载3吨到4吨冻品，运费为2200元/趟，技术服务费为47元。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“平台一口价货源和电议货源实际由货主定价，平台并未进行强制定价。”7月21日，满帮回应《中国新闻周刊》表示。平台页面显示，货主填单后，平台参考价右上角上方有“我要加价”标识，最终是否加价，加价多少，权利掌握在货主手里。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　以小余那趟7450元的订单为例，小余填单后，曾与平台客服沟通，将运价修改为10800元。“货主可以选择接受或不接受该价格⋯⋯货主也可以在该价格基础上，根据自身情况进行加价，平台并未限制货主加价。”满帮6月22日在《关于满帮优选“低价事件”的说明》（下称《说明》）中解释。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“平台已经给了这么低的价格，如果你是货主，看到这个价格后，还会主动加价吗？这不符合常理。”张涛并不接受平台关于“定价权在货主”的解释，在他看来，平台参考价名为“参考”，实为真正的市场定价。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　平台参考价又是怎样制定出来的？</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　以小余的订单为例，《说明》称：“平台数据显示，过去一个月，从广州花都到青岛市市南区的同样车辆常规订单的平均成交价约为7300元，和平台提供的参考价‘相似’。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“参考价是根据过往数月类似线路车辆的成交数据算出来的。”满帮工作人员告诉《中国新闻周刊》：“但是客观来说，货运场景非常复杂，有非常多的非标因素，市场供需、发货时间、重量体积、是否易碎、是否有危险，干货或湿货，要不要装卸货，要不要押车，卸货押车需要多久时间，都会影响最后的价格。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　作为全球最大的数字货运平台和纽交所上市公司，在规模超过6万亿的中国货运市场车货匹配领域耕耘超过10年，满帮掌握着数量极为可观的数据。满帮招股书显示，2020年全年，超过280万卡车司机在满帮完成了7170万个运输订单，交易总额为人民币1738亿元，司机数量约占中国1370万重型和中型卡车的20%。2020年12月，满帮的托运人月活（MAU）超过130万。而满帮集团季报显示，2022年第一季度，满帮完成订单2520万份，比2021年同期的2210万份增长13.6%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“无论是车主还是货主，都已经对车货匹配平台产生了较大程度的依赖。”中国劳动关系学院讲师周潇在2021年发表的《数字平台、行业重组与群体生计——以公路货运市场车货匹配模式的变迁为例》一文中表示。根据周潇在2019年的调查，66.9%的货车司机最主要的找货途径是车货匹配平台。“考察卡车司机通过平台得到的业务占其总业务量的比例，71%到100%的占比最高，为38.2%⋯⋯在100家物流企业中，不使用平台叫车的企业仅有9家，44家企业‘频繁使用’平台叫车。”周潇写道。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　研究显示，中国车货匹配平台在2013年到2014年快速涌现，数量一度接近300家。在那以前，公路货运市场曾在2010年前后出现许多车货匹配网站 ，在这些网站通过互联网改变货运市场信息分散的局面以前，司机主要通过停车场、物流园的物流中介获取订单。周潇将这种依赖人际关系网络的交易匹配定义为“嵌入型匹配”，与之相对，车货匹配平台的匹配过程则被称为“桥接型匹配”。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“在嵌入型匹配中，卡车司机、中介和货主之间是讨价还价的互动模式，竞价的情况很少出现。即便存在竞价，也仅限于较小范围之内，因而价格变化的幅度较小。桥接型匹配则不然，虽然表面看来也有货主和车主的议价，但是事实上属于一种探底竞价的模式。”周潇分析。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　对平台而言，货主和司机的权重并不相同，占有更多货源才是取得更高市场占有率的关键。周潇的一段分析或许能解释平台的行事逻辑，“随着货车逐步增多，市场日益呈现车多货少的局面，获得足够的货源信息成为（物流中介）信息部经营成功与否的关键。这就意味着与货主关系的建立和维持非常重要。”如今，物流中介信息部被网络货运平台取代，逻辑依然成立：在供大于求的买方市场里，平台必然倾向货主。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　由于平台汇集了巨量卡车司机，货主每发出一个货单，很快就会被数以百计、千计的司机看到，司机们蜂拥而至，货主则有充分的空间选出出价最低的司机。许多司机反映，有货主会在与司机沟通后，再次降低运价发单。而在没有车货匹配平台的时代，由于货主能获取的运力有限，司机就有更大的议价空间。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　物流中介曾在2018年激烈抵抗满帮的软件改版，那次改版尝试使司机在不了解货物详情的情况下先报价，在报价基础上，司机与物流商通过虚拟号码通话联系，这就意味着物流商与司机的紧密联系被平台强行切断，被夺走定价权和生存空间的物流商因此奋起反抗。然而“质量越大，引力越大”，正如物理世界的引力法则，由于平台对货主、司机的强大吸附力，过去的物流中介如今也不得不转战线上，成为被平台支配的链条一环。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">“多因一果”的低价困局</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　中国公路物流运价指数显示，在2016年下半年达到120点左右的历史高位后，公路物流运价就一路走低。2022年2月，由中国物流与采购联合会和林安物流集团联合调查的中国公路物流运价指数为98.3点，比上月回落2.19%，比去年同期下降0.9%。与高点相比，如今的运价指数下跌了近20%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　2021年3月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>UP主“明日天涯路远1”以视频形式展示了自己从2018年1月1日到2020年12月30日的收入和费用记录。三年里，他工作了708天，开工率64.6%，拉了998单货，平均每天1.4单。总行驶里程192053公里，平均每天行驶271公里。总运费387563元，平均年收入129187元。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　以东莞到中山的运费为例，2018年运费最高850元，最低350元，平均480.4元/车，而2020年运费最高660元，最低300元，平均381.6元/车，环比下降20.5%，每年下降6.83%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“我就想问问那些还抢着拉低价货的司机，是不是还在精打细算，多跑点儿乡道、省道、国道，再加点儿便宜的小油，还能剩点儿，比闲着强。车上住，车上吃，就这么跑车节省开支，已经不是为了多挣钱，而是为了适应更低的运费。你说，这是不是咱们卡车界的悲哀？”货车司机孟洪发视频质问，“你记住，低价货发在平台上，你不拉，我不拉，它永远走不了，运费肯定能上去。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　但已经发生的恶性竞争早已使货主形成坚固的低价预期，即便货车司机们能建立抵抗低价单的共识，改变也非一日之功。而在现实中，由于种种原因，抵抗低价运单的共识极难建立。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“我原本有12辆车，因为还不上贷款，已经半价卖了10辆车，剩两辆还完贷的还在跑。”张涛说。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“买车的门槛太低了。”张涛告诉《中国新闻周刊》，他买车时，由4S店直接帮他办理贷款，一套购置手续下来，买一辆车只需要两万元左右的现金。“各种0首付、免息得分金融方案，让货运行业的入行门槛逐渐降低。驾照的要求也进一步放宽，都使得不少的新鲜血液进入货运市场。”卡车之家分析。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　需要借贷才能买车的“小白司机”本身就背负着很重的生存压力，买车后，又叠加沉重的还贷压力，为了早日还清贷款，他们只能用高强度的劳动换取更多现金，也因此比其他司机更能容忍低价运单。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　此外，中国工业区主要分布在东南沿海的经济地理现实，决定了货车回程空驶率高。原运满满总裁苗天冶2017年1月接受《经济观察报》采访时称，据运满满统计，中国干线物流的空驶率大概在40%。“40%空驶率的意思是，比如，从上海到成都有10000票货，但从成都回上海只有6000票货。这是中国经济地域间发展不均衡的结果，是客观存在的事实。”苗天冶说。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">中泰证券</a></span><span></span>一项对比中美快运行业异同的研究指出，美国的主要工业区分布在东北、东南和西海岸，从美国主要货运公路线来看，货物运输集中在东海岸区域内运输和跨东西海岸的长距离运输。在长距离运输中，路径穿越美国各大州，货源充足，回程配载容易。以ODFL、FedEx 等美国快运公司为例，其自有车辆全程装载率在 90%以上。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　而中国的货物运输主要集中在东南沿海地区，中西部地区货源稀缺，回程配载困难。2018年10月，苗天冶接受全球道路运输组织IRU采访时表示，运满满的高效匹配使货车空驶率由37%降低到32%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　在许多人看来，这是货运平台为物流行业带来的了不起的增效成就，但在司机一方看来，在收入没有增加的情况下，提高回程装载率成了平台用低价单招徕货主的“幌子”。“回头车是什么概念？假设我每天都要从山西往北京送煤，卸了煤以后，无论如何我都要重新返回山西，第二天好再往北京送煤，这种有没有货都要返回的才叫回程车。但现在的货运市场，我们干线的卡友兄弟，全国各地跑，哪趟算回程？”物流公司负责人学锋说。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　各项成本的上升，也在倒逼货车司机尽可能降低空载率。2020年1月1日前，为了遏制超载，中国高速公路对货车普遍实行计重收费，但由于计重收费需要在出口收费站停车称重，一定程度上影响了货车通行效率。2020年1月1日起，货车计费方式由计重收费调整为按车（轴）型收费。当时便有货车司机对交通运输部提出异议：“现在大货车按轴（收费），拉货和不拉货的收费一样，怎么生存？”而交通运输部则回复称：“按车（轴）型收费是国际上的普遍做法，因为在合法装载情况下，同一轴型货车，无论载货多少，对公路资源的占用和损耗是一样的。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　此外，2020年9月1日实施的《营运货车安全技术条件》对于车辆的装备有了新的要求，而加装的各类设备带来的直接影响，就是车辆购置价格上升，司机承担的货运成本再次上升。为了尽可能摊薄成本，司机不得不想方设法降低空载，即便是低价货单，只要载货，就能减少损失，这就使低价单有了更大的市场空间。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　超载也是加剧运价低迷的因素之一。“很多卡友总说‘不超载就没法赚钱’，但这句话的逻辑关系是反的，正因为有很多超载车，本来两个车才能拉的货物，一个车就搞定了，导致另外一个车没活干，长期恶性循环才导致整体运价低迷。”卡车之家论坛分析。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　《2021年交通运输行业发展统计公报》显示，2021年，全国拥有载货汽车1173.26万辆、17099.50万吨位，相较2020年，分别增长5.7%和8.3%，相较2016年，载货吨位增长约58%。而2021年，全国公路完成营业性货运量521.60亿吨，相比2016年的334.13亿吨货运量，增长约56%。整体而言，货运量增幅小于载货吨位增幅，结果只能是加剧货运市场的竞争。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　相较2021年，疫情给2020年的公路货运行业带来非常严重的打击。统计公报显示，2020年，全国拥有载货汽车1110.28万辆、15784.17万吨位，全国公路完成营业性货运量342.64亿吨，平均每吨位货车一年完成的货运量只有217吨。远低于2021年每吨位货车305吨货物的运载水平。2022年，国内多地暴发疫情，使许多城市处于长期封控的状态，对公路货运行业的打击更不容小觑。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　谈论货运价低时，人们常常忽略一个极为重要的背景，即相比发达国家，中国的物流效率仍然不够高。管理咨询公司贝恩公司和智慧物联网公司G7在2017年联合发布的《中国公路货运市场研究报告》显示，中国的物流费用占GDP的比重为16%，同发达国家10%的水平相比，差距仍然很大。具体表现为公路线路繁忙，但是平均速度普遍偏低。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　研究选取了国内最繁忙的10条线路，平均运行时速在50~65公里/小时之间，距离发达国家75~80公里/小时的平均水平仍有差距。此外，拥堵情况普遍存在且日趋严重，以进出上海的繁忙线路为例，车辆超过30%的时间处在拥堵和阻塞状态。这意味着运输效率还有极高的提升潜力，也必然进一步挤出竞争力不足的车辆和司机。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　波士顿咨询发布的《中国公路货运市场发展趋势》预测，到2025年，将有5%的微货运经营者（管理车辆数小于10辆）和5%的零散个体被挤出市场。当前个体司机在社交平台、短视频平台上的表达似乎也在证实波士顿咨询对趋势的预判，许多司机表示自己正在卖车或已经卖车，决意退出货运行业。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　中国汽车流通协会数据显示，2021年，全国二手载货车交易量为145.38万辆，同比增长6.93%。而从业人员在呈下降趋势。2018年，新华社报道称当年道路货运行业从业人员超过2100万，2021年11月3日，交通运输部负责人在发布会上表示，2020年全行业共有1728万货车司机。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">网络货运平台何去何从</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　“为限制不合理的恶性低价竞争，平台已根据不同车长设置最低价格和提醒价格，并根据货物品类、车货供需比、成交率等逻辑不断做调整优化。当货主发布价格低于最低价格平台会阻断发货，高于最低价格且低于提醒价格对货主提醒‘价格过低找车困难’。如果货主发货价格低于预估市场价格，平台会提示和引导货主合理地提升运价，以便司机尽快接单。”面对司机的激烈质疑，满帮回复《中国新闻周刊》。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　满帮还表示，在司机端App，对于明显低于市场价格的货源信息，平台将屏蔽其货源价格，不对外向司机展示。该功能已于2021年12月12日正式上线，从2021年11月至2022年3月，平台通过技术手段阻断拦截低价货源219万次；平台向货主发出低价货源提醒达1902万次，提醒后加价率达到32.2%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　但显然，货车司机群体对平台的改进并不买账。作为全球最大的数字货运平台，满帮于2021年6月22日在纽交所上市，成为中国数字货运平台“第一股”，发行价为19美元。截至发稿，满帮股价为9美元，比发行价跌去一半还多。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　企名片数据显示，IPO以前，满帮先后经历了超10轮融资，由数十家机构组成的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>投资阵容中，除了最大的外部股东红杉中国，还有阿里系的云锋基金、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>投资、高瓴资本和孙正义的软银愿景基金等。红杉中国披露的数据显示，2017年11月，货车帮和运满满合并时，两家公司的估值均近10亿美元。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　按照红杉中国合伙人郭山汕的说法，运满满没有通过补贴、垫资抢占市场，而是表现出可贵的“长期主义”。“项目组长时间在物流园蹲守，观察和记录各家地推司机安装App和辅导的过程。当时除了个别年轻司机，大部分司机在40岁以上，接受起来很困难，他们没有使用过什么应用和网站。不同的团队执行力差别很大，有的团队装完App就离开，然后另一个团队来了就把它卸载掉。晚上我们住进小旅馆和住在上下铺的司机交流，了解他们的生活。”郭山汕说。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　在郭山汕的叙述中，运满满早期在车货匹配市场的开拓被镀上了一层玫瑰色的英雄主义：“经过一段时间工作，南京的运满满和当时主要在成都的货车帮从中间脱颖而出，凭借在意志力、组织力、技术手段上的优势，他们在各地信息网和物流园里坚持下来。他们的软件被封杀过，车辆和物料被毁坏过，地推人员受伤进了医院，第二天早上又重返现场。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　如今，司机们更愿意相信这是一个“屠龙勇士终成恶龙”的故事，尽管满帮早已在招股书的风险陈述中呈现了行业变化的核心动因及隐患的传导逻辑：“我们对影响货运量和货车运力的整体经济状况的变化非常敏感。中国公路运输市场已经因经济放缓、托运人商业周期的低迷、能源价格波动、大流行和其他我们无法控制的经济因素而经历周期性波动。经济环境恶化使我们的业务面临各种风险⋯⋯总货运量的减少降低了我们的收入和增长机会；此外，由于托运人商业周期低迷或其他因素导致的货运量下降，通常会导致订单价格下降，因为卡车司机为了保持卡车的生产力而竞争运输订单，这将影响我们的货币化机会；一些货车司机可能会退出市场，当市场恢复时，我们可能就没有足够的司机来满足托运人的要求。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　满帮财报显示，2022年第一季度，平台交易总额达到536亿元人民币，比2021年同期的515亿元人民币增长了4.2%。而平台总净收入为13.326亿元人民币，较2021年同期的8.672亿元人民币增长了53.7%。交易总额保持平稳的情况下，在货车司机的骂声中，以撮合交易抽佣、会员费和退税为主要收入来源的平台营收却大幅增长，使许多行业观察者为满帮捏把汗。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　漂亮业绩对应的代价是满帮预料之中的。“如果我们现有的解决方案和服务未能获得并保持足够的市场接受度或为生态系统参与者提供预期收益，我们的财务状况、经营业绩和竞争地位将受到重大不利影响。”满帮招股书显示。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　或许是对跨城长途货运的市场天花板早有预判，满帮早在上市前的2020年11月就杀入由货拉拉、滴滴货运、快狗打车主导的同城货运领域。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　但快狗打车于2022年6月14日递交港交所的招股书显示，作为占据中国内地3.2%市场份额的第三大同城货运平台，快狗打车已经连续亏损4年，累计亏损约27.86亿元，预计未来3年仍会继续亏损。而与此同时，从2018年到2020年，快狗打车在中国内地平台服务的抽佣率不断上升至8.3%，而2021年，抽佣率不得不降回到2.6%，“主要由于我们为平台服务交易用户提供的奖励大幅增加，反映更激进的增长战略及中国内地线上同城物流市场的激烈竞争。”</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：邓健 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>网络货运平台遭约谈背后：货车司机为啥挣得少？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n网络货运平台遭约谈背后：货车司机为啥挣得少？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-02 14:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/cyxw/2022-08-02/doc-imizmscv4527431.shtml><strong>中国新闻周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>记者/王宇\n　　用9.6米长的厢式货车，运一单重量为17吨到18吨的电子产品。货物用纸箱包装，体积在45m³到55m³之间，从广州市花都区出发，到青岛市市南区卸货，走高速，路程近1900公里。货车司机小余输入货运信息后，货车帮货主App给出了7450元/趟的指导报价。\n　　成本呢？货运有两项大额刚性支出：路桥费和燃油费。高速通行费约4000元，9.6米的满载厢货，百公里烧40升柴油，按广东省一升...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/cyxw/2022-08-02/doc-imizmscv4527431.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YMM":"满帮","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4539":"次新股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4022":"陆运","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/cyxw/2022-08-02/doc-imizmscv4527431.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2256649914","content_text":"记者/王宇\n　　用9.6米长的厢式货车，运一单重量为17吨到18吨的电子产品。货物用纸箱包装，体积在45m³到55m³之间，从广州市花都区出发，到青岛市市南区卸货，走高速，路程近1900公里。货车司机小余输入货运信息后，货车帮货主App给出了7450元/趟的指导报价。\n　　成本呢？货运有两项大额刚性支出：路桥费和燃油费。高速通行费约4000元，9.6米的满载厢货，百公里烧40升柴油，按广东省一升柴油8.48元的价格计算，燃油成本超过6000元。也就是说，运这一趟货物的刚性支出超过10000元。\n　　“这就是最近货运价格大跳水的原因。”愤怒的小余将作为货主的整个发单过程发布在短视频平台上，评论区里，许多留言号召“全国停运”“打倒满帮”。\n　　这不是作为国内最大互联网长途货运平台的满帮第一次遭遇司机围攻。2017年11月，由运满满与货车帮合并后成立的满帮，成为国内最大的长途货运撮合交易平台。三个月后，成为龙头的满帮开始尝试向货主和司机两方收取服务费，消息一出，立即引起司机的不满。从那时起，司机对满帮的愤怒伴随运价的持续走低而不断酝酿。疫情暴发后，货车司机处境愈发艰难，与满帮等互联网货运平台的矛盾则日益尖锐。\n　　此间，交通运输部已就平台抽成比例高、分配机制不公开透明、随意调整计价规则、恶意压低运价等问题，于2021年5月和2022年1月，两度约谈以跨城运输为主的满帮，及以同城运输为主的货拉拉、滴滴货运、快狗打车。当时，四家平台均表示将按照约谈要求，对存在的问题积极整改。然而，司机对平台的不满在今年6月再次爆发，多地司机号召停运，以抵制平台和低价运单。\n　　7月8日，交通运输部在两年内第三次约谈货拉拉、满帮、快狗打车、滴滴货运，通报平台压价竞争、多重收费、违规运营等损害货车司机合法权益的问题。约谈要求平台提高站位、正视问题，立即对压价竞争行为进行整改，着力规范平台收费行为，坚决消除超载超限、违规载客、运输违禁品等安全隐患，向社会公开抽成比例或会员费上限。\n　　备受争议的“平台参考价”\n　　7月22日，小余又发出一条视频，显示5吨到6吨货物，用4.2米的厢货，货主出价400元/趟，平台收取技术服务费15元。评论区里有司机猜，这是一趟140公里的货单的报价。小余回复：“260公里，你信不？”\n　　武汉司机张涛给《中国新闻周刊》发来的订单显示，一趟由武汉东西湖发往宁波北仑的货，预估里程970公里，4.2米的冷藏车，装载3吨到4吨冻品，运费为2200元/趟，技术服务费为47元。\n　　“平台一口价货源和电议货源实际由货主定价，平台并未进行强制定价。”7月21日，满帮回应《中国新闻周刊》表示。平台页面显示，货主填单后，平台参考价右上角上方有“我要加价”标识，最终是否加价，加价多少，权利掌握在货主手里。\n　　以小余那趟7450元的订单为例，小余填单后，曾与平台客服沟通，将运价修改为10800元。“货主可以选择接受或不接受该价格⋯⋯货主也可以在该价格基础上，根据自身情况进行加价，平台并未限制货主加价。”满帮6月22日在《关于满帮优选“低价事件”的说明》（下称《说明》）中解释。\n　　“平台已经给了这么低的价格，如果你是货主，看到这个价格后，还会主动加价吗？这不符合常理。”张涛并不接受平台关于“定价权在货主”的解释，在他看来，平台参考价名为“参考”，实为真正的市场定价。\n　　平台参考价又是怎样制定出来的？\n　　以小余的订单为例，《说明》称：“平台数据显示，过去一个月，从广州花都到青岛市市南区的同样车辆常规订单的平均成交价约为7300元，和平台提供的参考价‘相似’。”\n　　“参考价是根据过往数月类似线路车辆的成交数据算出来的。”满帮工作人员告诉《中国新闻周刊》：“但是客观来说，货运场景非常复杂，有非常多的非标因素，市场供需、发货时间、重量体积、是否易碎、是否有危险，干货或湿货，要不要装卸货，要不要押车，卸货押车需要多久时间，都会影响最后的价格。”\n　　作为全球最大的数字货运平台和纽交所上市公司，在规模超过6万亿的中国货运市场车货匹配领域耕耘超过10年，满帮掌握着数量极为可观的数据。满帮招股书显示，2020年全年，超过280万卡车司机在满帮完成了7170万个运输订单，交易总额为人民币1738亿元，司机数量约占中国1370万重型和中型卡车的20%。2020年12月，满帮的托运人月活（MAU）超过130万。而满帮集团季报显示，2022年第一季度，满帮完成订单2520万份，比2021年同期的2210万份增长13.6%。\n　　“无论是车主还是货主，都已经对车货匹配平台产生了较大程度的依赖。”中国劳动关系学院讲师周潇在2021年发表的《数字平台、行业重组与群体生计——以公路货运市场车货匹配模式的变迁为例》一文中表示。根据周潇在2019年的调查，66.9%的货车司机最主要的找货途径是车货匹配平台。“考察卡车司机通过平台得到的业务占其总业务量的比例，71%到100%的占比最高，为38.2%⋯⋯在100家物流企业中，不使用平台叫车的企业仅有9家，44家企业‘频繁使用’平台叫车。”周潇写道。\n　　研究显示，中国车货匹配平台在2013年到2014年快速涌现，数量一度接近300家。在那以前，公路货运市场曾在2010年前后出现许多车货匹配网站 ，在这些网站通过互联网改变货运市场信息分散的局面以前，司机主要通过停车场、物流园的物流中介获取订单。周潇将这种依赖人际关系网络的交易匹配定义为“嵌入型匹配”，与之相对，车货匹配平台的匹配过程则被称为“桥接型匹配”。\n　　“在嵌入型匹配中，卡车司机、中介和货主之间是讨价还价的互动模式，竞价的情况很少出现。即便存在竞价，也仅限于较小范围之内，因而价格变化的幅度较小。桥接型匹配则不然，虽然表面看来也有货主和车主的议价，但是事实上属于一种探底竞价的模式。”周潇分析。\n　　对平台而言，货主和司机的权重并不相同，占有更多货源才是取得更高市场占有率的关键。周潇的一段分析或许能解释平台的行事逻辑，“随着货车逐步增多，市场日益呈现车多货少的局面，获得足够的货源信息成为（物流中介）信息部经营成功与否的关键。这就意味着与货主关系的建立和维持非常重要。”如今，物流中介信息部被网络货运平台取代，逻辑依然成立：在供大于求的买方市场里，平台必然倾向货主。\n　　由于平台汇集了巨量卡车司机，货主每发出一个货单，很快就会被数以百计、千计的司机看到，司机们蜂拥而至，货主则有充分的空间选出出价最低的司机。许多司机反映，有货主会在与司机沟通后，再次降低运价发单。而在没有车货匹配平台的时代，由于货主能获取的运力有限，司机就有更大的议价空间。\n　　物流中介曾在2018年激烈抵抗满帮的软件改版，那次改版尝试使司机在不了解货物详情的情况下先报价，在报价基础上，司机与物流商通过虚拟号码通话联系，这就意味着物流商与司机的紧密联系被平台强行切断，被夺走定价权和生存空间的物流商因此奋起反抗。然而“质量越大，引力越大”，正如物理世界的引力法则，由于平台对货主、司机的强大吸附力，过去的物流中介如今也不得不转战线上，成为被平台支配的链条一环。\n　　“多因一果”的低价困局\n　　中国公路物流运价指数显示，在2016年下半年达到120点左右的历史高位后，公路物流运价就一路走低。2022年2月，由中国物流与采购联合会和林安物流集团联合调查的中国公路物流运价指数为98.3点，比上月回落2.19%，比去年同期下降0.9%。与高点相比，如今的运价指数下跌了近20%。\n　　2021年3月17日，哔哩哔哩UP主“明日天涯路远1”以视频形式展示了自己从2018年1月1日到2020年12月30日的收入和费用记录。三年里，他工作了708天，开工率64.6%，拉了998单货，平均每天1.4单。总行驶里程192053公里，平均每天行驶271公里。总运费387563元，平均年收入129187元。\n　　以东莞到中山的运费为例，2018年运费最高850元，最低350元，平均480.4元/车，而2020年运费最高660元，最低300元，平均381.6元/车，环比下降20.5%，每年下降6.83%。\n　　“我就想问问那些还抢着拉低价货的司机，是不是还在精打细算，多跑点儿乡道、省道、国道，再加点儿便宜的小油，还能剩点儿，比闲着强。车上住，车上吃，就这么跑车节省开支，已经不是为了多挣钱，而是为了适应更低的运费。你说，这是不是咱们卡车界的悲哀？”货车司机孟洪发视频质问，“你记住，低价货发在平台上，你不拉，我不拉，它永远走不了，运费肯定能上去。”\n　　但已经发生的恶性竞争早已使货主形成坚固的低价预期，即便货车司机们能建立抵抗低价单的共识，改变也非一日之功。而在现实中，由于种种原因，抵抗低价运单的共识极难建立。\n　　“我原本有12辆车，因为还不上贷款，已经半价卖了10辆车，剩两辆还完贷的还在跑。”张涛说。\n　　“买车的门槛太低了。”张涛告诉《中国新闻周刊》，他买车时，由4S店直接帮他办理贷款，一套购置手续下来，买一辆车只需要两万元左右的现金。“各种0首付、免息得分金融方案，让货运行业的入行门槛逐渐降低。驾照的要求也进一步放宽，都使得不少的新鲜血液进入货运市场。”卡车之家分析。\n　　需要借贷才能买车的“小白司机”本身就背负着很重的生存压力，买车后，又叠加沉重的还贷压力，为了早日还清贷款，他们只能用高强度的劳动换取更多现金，也因此比其他司机更能容忍低价运单。\n　　此外，中国工业区主要分布在东南沿海的经济地理现实，决定了货车回程空驶率高。原运满满总裁苗天冶2017年1月接受《经济观察报》采访时称，据运满满统计，中国干线物流的空驶率大概在40%。“40%空驶率的意思是，比如，从上海到成都有10000票货，但从成都回上海只有6000票货。这是中国经济地域间发展不均衡的结果，是客观存在的事实。”苗天冶说。\n　　中泰证券一项对比中美快运行业异同的研究指出，美国的主要工业区分布在东北、东南和西海岸，从美国主要货运公路线来看，货物运输集中在东海岸区域内运输和跨东西海岸的长距离运输。在长距离运输中，路径穿越美国各大州，货源充足，回程配载容易。以ODFL、FedEx 等美国快运公司为例，其自有车辆全程装载率在 90%以上。\n　　而中国的货物运输主要集中在东南沿海地区，中西部地区货源稀缺，回程配载困难。2018年10月，苗天冶接受全球道路运输组织IRU采访时表示，运满满的高效匹配使货车空驶率由37%降低到32%。\n　　在许多人看来，这是货运平台为物流行业带来的了不起的增效成就，但在司机一方看来，在收入没有增加的情况下，提高回程装载率成了平台用低价单招徕货主的“幌子”。“回头车是什么概念？假设我每天都要从山西往北京送煤，卸了煤以后，无论如何我都要重新返回山西，第二天好再往北京送煤，这种有没有货都要返回的才叫回程车。但现在的货运市场，我们干线的卡友兄弟，全国各地跑，哪趟算回程？”物流公司负责人学锋说。\n　　各项成本的上升，也在倒逼货车司机尽可能降低空载率。2020年1月1日前，为了遏制超载，中国高速公路对货车普遍实行计重收费，但由于计重收费需要在出口收费站停车称重，一定程度上影响了货车通行效率。2020年1月1日起，货车计费方式由计重收费调整为按车（轴）型收费。当时便有货车司机对交通运输部提出异议：“现在大货车按轴（收费），拉货和不拉货的收费一样，怎么生存？”而交通运输部则回复称：“按车（轴）型收费是国际上的普遍做法，因为在合法装载情况下，同一轴型货车，无论载货多少，对公路资源的占用和损耗是一样的。”\n　　此外，2020年9月1日实施的《营运货车安全技术条件》对于车辆的装备有了新的要求，而加装的各类设备带来的直接影响，就是车辆购置价格上升，司机承担的货运成本再次上升。为了尽可能摊薄成本，司机不得不想方设法降低空载，即便是低价货单，只要载货，就能减少损失，这就使低价单有了更大的市场空间。\n　　超载也是加剧运价低迷的因素之一。“很多卡友总说‘不超载就没法赚钱’，但这句话的逻辑关系是反的，正因为有很多超载车，本来两个车才能拉的货物，一个车就搞定了，导致另外一个车没活干，长期恶性循环才导致整体运价低迷。”卡车之家论坛分析。\n　　《2021年交通运输行业发展统计公报》显示，2021年，全国拥有载货汽车1173.26万辆、17099.50万吨位，相较2020年，分别增长5.7%和8.3%，相较2016年，载货吨位增长约58%。而2021年，全国公路完成营业性货运量521.60亿吨，相比2016年的334.13亿吨货运量，增长约56%。整体而言，货运量增幅小于载货吨位增幅，结果只能是加剧货运市场的竞争。\n　　相较2021年，疫情给2020年的公路货运行业带来非常严重的打击。统计公报显示，2020年，全国拥有载货汽车1110.28万辆、15784.17万吨位，全国公路完成营业性货运量342.64亿吨，平均每吨位货车一年完成的货运量只有217吨。远低于2021年每吨位货车305吨货物的运载水平。2022年，国内多地暴发疫情，使许多城市处于长期封控的状态，对公路货运行业的打击更不容小觑。\n　　谈论货运价低时，人们常常忽略一个极为重要的背景，即相比发达国家，中国的物流效率仍然不够高。管理咨询公司贝恩公司和智慧物联网公司G7在2017年联合发布的《中国公路货运市场研究报告》显示，中国的物流费用占GDP的比重为16%，同发达国家10%的水平相比，差距仍然很大。具体表现为公路线路繁忙，但是平均速度普遍偏低。\n　　研究选取了国内最繁忙的10条线路，平均运行时速在50~65公里/小时之间，距离发达国家75~80公里/小时的平均水平仍有差距。此外，拥堵情况普遍存在且日趋严重，以进出上海的繁忙线路为例，车辆超过30%的时间处在拥堵和阻塞状态。这意味着运输效率还有极高的提升潜力，也必然进一步挤出竞争力不足的车辆和司机。\n　　波士顿咨询发布的《中国公路货运市场发展趋势》预测，到2025年，将有5%的微货运经营者（管理车辆数小于10辆）和5%的零散个体被挤出市场。当前个体司机在社交平台、短视频平台上的表达似乎也在证实波士顿咨询对趋势的预判，许多司机表示自己正在卖车或已经卖车，决意退出货运行业。\n　　中国汽车流通协会数据显示，2021年，全国二手载货车交易量为145.38万辆，同比增长6.93%。而从业人员在呈下降趋势。2018年，新华社报道称当年道路货运行业从业人员超过2100万，2021年11月3日，交通运输部负责人在发布会上表示，2020年全行业共有1728万货车司机。\n　　网络货运平台何去何从\n　　“为限制不合理的恶性低价竞争，平台已根据不同车长设置最低价格和提醒价格，并根据货物品类、车货供需比、成交率等逻辑不断做调整优化。当货主发布价格低于最低价格平台会阻断发货，高于最低价格且低于提醒价格对货主提醒‘价格过低找车困难’。如果货主发货价格低于预估市场价格，平台会提示和引导货主合理地提升运价，以便司机尽快接单。”面对司机的激烈质疑，满帮回复《中国新闻周刊》。\n　　满帮还表示，在司机端App，对于明显低于市场价格的货源信息，平台将屏蔽其货源价格，不对外向司机展示。该功能已于2021年12月12日正式上线，从2021年11月至2022年3月，平台通过技术手段阻断拦截低价货源219万次；平台向货主发出低价货源提醒达1902万次，提醒后加价率达到32.2%。\n　　但显然，货车司机群体对平台的改进并不买账。作为全球最大的数字货运平台，满帮于2021年6月22日在纽交所上市，成为中国数字货运平台“第一股”，发行价为19美元。截至发稿，满帮股价为9美元，比发行价跌去一半还多。\n　　企名片数据显示，IPO以前，满帮先后经历了超10轮融资，由数十家机构组成的豪华投资阵容中，除了最大的外部股东红杉中国，还有阿里系的云锋基金、腾讯投资、高瓴资本和孙正义的软银愿景基金等。红杉中国披露的数据显示，2017年11月，货车帮和运满满合并时，两家公司的估值均近10亿美元。\n　　按照红杉中国合伙人郭山汕的说法，运满满没有通过补贴、垫资抢占市场，而是表现出可贵的“长期主义”。“项目组长时间在物流园蹲守，观察和记录各家地推司机安装App和辅导的过程。当时除了个别年轻司机，大部分司机在40岁以上，接受起来很困难，他们没有使用过什么应用和网站。不同的团队执行力差别很大，有的团队装完App就离开，然后另一个团队来了就把它卸载掉。晚上我们住进小旅馆和住在上下铺的司机交流，了解他们的生活。”郭山汕说。\n　　在郭山汕的叙述中，运满满早期在车货匹配市场的开拓被镀上了一层玫瑰色的英雄主义：“经过一段时间工作，南京的运满满和当时主要在成都的货车帮从中间脱颖而出，凭借在意志力、组织力、技术手段上的优势，他们在各地信息网和物流园里坚持下来。他们的软件被封杀过，车辆和物料被毁坏过，地推人员受伤进了医院，第二天早上又重返现场。”\n　　如今，司机们更愿意相信这是一个“屠龙勇士终成恶龙”的故事，尽管满帮早已在招股书的风险陈述中呈现了行业变化的核心动因及隐患的传导逻辑：“我们对影响货运量和货车运力的整体经济状况的变化非常敏感。中国公路运输市场已经因经济放缓、托运人商业周期的低迷、能源价格波动、大流行和其他我们无法控制的经济因素而经历周期性波动。经济环境恶化使我们的业务面临各种风险⋯⋯总货运量的减少降低了我们的收入和增长机会；此外，由于托运人商业周期低迷或其他因素导致的货运量下降，通常会导致订单价格下降，因为卡车司机为了保持卡车的生产力而竞争运输订单，这将影响我们的货币化机会；一些货车司机可能会退出市场，当市场恢复时，我们可能就没有足够的司机来满足托运人的要求。”\n　　满帮财报显示，2022年第一季度，平台交易总额达到536亿元人民币，比2021年同期的515亿元人民币增长了4.2%。而平台总净收入为13.326亿元人民币，较2021年同期的8.672亿元人民币增长了53.7%。交易总额保持平稳的情况下，在货车司机的骂声中，以撮合交易抽佣、会员费和退税为主要收入来源的平台营收却大幅增长，使许多行业观察者为满帮捏把汗。\n　　漂亮业绩对应的代价是满帮预料之中的。“如果我们现有的解决方案和服务未能获得并保持足够的市场接受度或为生态系统参与者提供预期收益，我们的财务状况、经营业绩和竞争地位将受到重大不利影响。”满帮招股书显示。\n　　或许是对跨城长途货运的市场天花板早有预判，满帮早在上市前的2020年11月就杀入由货拉拉、滴滴货运、快狗打车主导的同城货运领域。\n　　但快狗打车于2022年6月14日递交港交所的招股书显示，作为占据中国内地3.2%市场份额的第三大同城货运平台，快狗打车已经连续亏损4年，累计亏损约27.86亿元，预计未来3年仍会继续亏损。而与此同时，从2018年到2020年，快狗打车在中国内地平台服务的抽佣率不断上升至8.3%，而2021年，抽佣率不得不降回到2.6%，“主要由于我们为平台服务交易用户提供的奖励大幅增加，反映更激进的增长战略及中国内地线上同城物流市场的激烈竞争。”\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：邓健","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950982276,"gmtCreate":1589204565595,"gmtModify":1704179477437,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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09:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"预期低至-2200万的非农要来了！市场这次会有何反应？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151018998","media":"金十数据","summary":"非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？\n01、日程提醒\n周五20:30，美国将公布4","content":"<p>非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？</p>\n<p><b><span>01、</span></b><b><span><u>日程提醒</u></span></b></p>\n<p>周五20:30，美国将公布4月非农就业数据和失业率。新增非农就业人数的前值为-70.1万人，预期值为<b><u>-2200万人</u></b>；失业率前值为4.4%，市场预期为16%。</p>\n<p>周三晚间公布的4月ADP就业人数减少2023.6万人，降幅高于预期的2005万人，前值也由-2.7万下修至-14.9万人。这进一步预示非农就业数据表现堪忧。</p>\n<p><b><span>02、</span></b><b><span><u>精选分析</u></span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>▶&nbsp;-2200万的非农是如何诞生的？</span></b></p>\n<p>虽然美国各州已经开始逐步解封，但经济产出不会马上恢复，就业市场的反弹也不会马上到来。市场之所以预期非农就业人数狂减2200万，主要是出于对以下几个因素的综合考虑。</p>\n<p><b><span><u>第一，服务业、制造业等关键行业的就业岗位呈断崖式下滑。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>以服务业为例，美国供应管理协会（ISM）周二公布的调查数据显示，<b>服务业就业指数下降至30，衡量企业活动、新订单和就业的指标上月均跌至1997年以来的低点。</b>该协会非制造业企业调查委员会主席Anthony Nieves表示，文娱产业、零售业的萎缩程度最为惊人，而零售业恰恰是美国最重要的经济部门之一。</p>\n <p>更令人担忧的是，ISM上周公布的制造业就业数据同样跌至历史低谷。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e6daef89cbd67b89a6520c7556a037\"></p>\n<p><b><span><u>第二，作为就业市场的即时指标，初请失业金人数的表现依旧惨淡。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>数据显示，<b>过去七周美国初请失业金人数分别录得328.3万、664.8万、660.6万、524.5万、442.7万、384.6万和316.9万，</b>自攀上660万的高峰后便整体呈递减趋势，但实际数据相当惊人。合计超过3000万人申请失业救济也就意味着，16%的美国劳动力存在就业困难。</p>\n <p>调查机构盖洛普在4月13日至19日进行的一项民意调查发现，10%的美国人因感染了冠状病毒而暂时失去了工作，2%的美国公民认为自己“永久性地”失去了工作；另有26%的雇员表示他们的收入减少了，15%的在职员工称工作时间明显缩短。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c438f33ce6193f7fa1c67aa6b2238a\"></p>\n<p><b><span><u>第三，美国经济贡献率最高的几个州（比如加州），都是受疫情的重灾区。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>据华尔街日报报道，作为美国重要的经济中心，纽约受疫情影响相当严重。仅仅是布鲁克林一个区，就有数百万人面临失业威胁。另据Sierra Sun Times报道，加州的失业率在3月底已上升到5.3%，非农就业岗位削减了99500个。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>不过华尔街日报也指出，由于统计数据的方式存在差异，<b>非农就业数据和失业率的时效性没有每周公布的初请失业金人数那么高，</b>所以相关数据不一定能代表美国最新的就业状况。</p>\n<p>高盛则指出，<b><span>劳工部的一项名为U-6的统计数据，可能更能体现美国就业市场的现状。</span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>据悉，该数据统计的是包括实时失业人员、有兼职工作但仍想找全职工作的雇员以及长期无法找到工作的求职者的总人数。高盛经济学家预测，<b>这一数据占美国劳动力总人口的比例可能会飙升到29%，远高于2007-09年经济衰退后创造的峰值17.2%，</b>更能体现近期的就业形势。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>▶&nbsp;别忽视这些重要指标</span></b></p>\n<p>AXIOS网站分析师Dion Rabouin指出，美国4月非农就业数据出现前所未有的巨大萎缩基本是毋庸置疑的，因为仅仅7周内就有超过3000万人申请失业救济。但这并不说明该报告无看点，预计其将提供一些关键指引，为美国经济复苏前景提供重要的参考。</p>\n<p>Dion Rabouin强调，<b>除了新增非农就业人数和失业率之外，一些在就业报告中未曾提及的数据和指标也非常重要。</b></p>\n<p><b><span><u>第一，有多少未被计入新增非农就业人数的工人仍与雇主有联系。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>这方面的数据外界很难从政府的官方统计中得到了解，但相关数据对于就业市场的复苏速度有很强的指示性。AXIOS的调查发现，在那些被解雇的工人中，<b>85%的人认为一旦危机结束，他们将“有可能”重返工作岗位，60%的人认为“很有可能”重新得到工作。</b></p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第二，平均时薪和薪资增长速度的变化趋势。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>美国银行全球研究分析师预计，<b>4月份美国平均每周工作时间将跌至33.5小时，创下历史新低。</b>不过，随着整体薪资水平在3月份已跌至谷底，4月薪资水平或出现1.0%（月度）或3.9%（年度）的复合增长率。但薪资增长并不代表就业市场彻底回暖，投资者不要过度乐观。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第三，就业市场的新趋势。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>根据劳工统计局的最新报告，<b>2月至3月间，因工作机会减少以及工作条件恶化，从事兼职工作的工人人数增加了130万，增幅达46%。</b></p>\n <p>Dion Rabouin认为，由于大部分企业在疫情期间损失惨重，所以哪怕经济重启后这些企业也不会马上恢复以往的招聘规模，更不大可能增加额外的工作岗位——因为它们将尽一切可能节省支出，以留出应对下一次危机的流动资金。有鉴于此，成本相对较低的兼职员工需求可能会越来越大，这将改变就业市场的格局。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第四，政府救助法案的实施效果。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>据外媒报道，有小企业主抱怨道，政府的中小企业援助计划设计得很糟糕，而且由于失业人数的增加和政府福利支出的负担加剧，相关救助计划可能会逐步缩水。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span><u>第五，就业人口比例。</u></span></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>华尔街日报分析称，就业人口占美国总人口的比例是体现美国就业市场潜力和增长前景的重要指标。数据显示，这一比例在1月份达到衰退后的峰值61.2%，3月份降至60%。分析认为，该数据可能在4月份继续萎缩，这也意味着美国将出现大量的剩余劳动力，这会给社会管理和治安带来一定压力。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>▶&nbsp;市场反应预测：美元不为所动，黄金、美股或有异动</span></b></p>\n<p>和3月份非农数据出炉前类似，在长达一个月的等待中，无数分析师已经为这份可能是史上最糟糕的非农就业报告作了充分预热，所以数据最终出来那一刻，市场恐怕不会有太多异动。不过具体来看，不同市场的反应程度可能会不太一样。</p>\n<p><b><span>美元</span></b><b>如今涨势凌厉，就算大小非农齐齐爆雷，恐怕也难以打压其涨势。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <p>摩根大通驻伦敦的外汇策略师保罗•麦格耶西（Paul Meggyesi）和梅拉•钱丹（Meera Chandan）表示，<b>地缘政治冲突和贸易局势的变化正在巩固美元的涨势，</b>相比之下，黄金和美股更可能出现异动。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>黄金</span></b><b>最有可能成为新增非农就业人数暴跌的受益者。</b></p>\n<p>FX Empire分析师David Becker指出，虽然现货黄金目前的交投区间比较狭窄，但由于对冲基金仍在继续多黄金期货和期权，<b>黄金价格隐含波动率（Gold implied volatility）在周二收盘收升至24%，运行于近期高位。</b>波动率的上升意味着金价在未来可能出现更大起伏，而大小非农最有可能成为触发金价大涨或暴跌的导火索。</p>\n<p>从技术面来看，黄金周线图正在构建上升三角楔形，金价可能在近期试探4月份创造的近期高位1747美元。周四因市场预期美国恐出现负利率，两年期和五年期美债收益率因此再创历史新低，金价也连破三大关口一度上破1720美元。非农的糟糕表现或将助推金价进一步上行。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de59973d5af8bc397ba31734a822c0a\"></p>\n<p>和欣欣向荣的金市相反，<b><span>股市</span></b><b>继续遭到华尔街一众大佬的唱衰。</b>路透在4月16-30日对北美、欧洲和日本的34位基金经理进行的调查显示，<b>基金经理们建议投资者将股票在投资组合模型中的占比从3月的45.9%削减至45.1%，为近七个月来最低水平</b>。</p>\n<p>分析认为，和韧劲十足的美元不同，美股的抗风险性并不强，投机资本随时可能因一些风吹草动而大规模撤出股市，投资者切不可轻视大小非农的威力。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>预期低至-2200万的非农要来了！市场这次会有何反应？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n预期低至-2200万的非农要来了！市场这次会有何反应？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-08 09:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59661><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？\n01、日程提醒\n周五20:30，美国将公布4月非农就业数据和失业率。新增非农就业人数的前值为-70.1万人，预期值为-2200万人；失业率前值为4.4%，市场预期为16%。\n周三晚间公布的4月ADP就业人数减少2023.6万人，降幅高于预期的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59661\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52e6e6d04d9823325064d60aa26462e","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59661","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151018998","content_text":"非农就业数据的表现，将揭示美国近90%经济部门的产出状况，其重要程度不言而喻。4月非农新增就业人口想必会继续大幅下滑，问题在于各大市场又将出现怎样的波动？\n01、日程提醒\n周五20:30，美国将公布4月非农就业数据和失业率。新增非农就业人数的前值为-70.1万人，预期值为-2200万人；失业率前值为4.4%，市场预期为16%。\n周三晚间公布的4月ADP就业人数减少2023.6万人，降幅高于预期的2005万人，前值也由-2.7万下修至-14.9万人。这进一步预示非农就业数据表现堪忧。\n02、精选分析\n▶ -2200万的非农是如何诞生的？\n虽然美国各州已经开始逐步解封，但经济产出不会马上恢复，就业市场的反弹也不会马上到来。市场之所以预期非农就业人数狂减2200万，主要是出于对以下几个因素的综合考虑。\n第一，服务业、制造业等关键行业的就业岗位呈断崖式下滑。\n\n以服务业为例，美国供应管理协会（ISM）周二公布的调查数据显示，服务业就业指数下降至30，衡量企业活动、新订单和就业的指标上月均跌至1997年以来的低点。该协会非制造业企业调查委员会主席Anthony Nieves表示，文娱产业、零售业的萎缩程度最为惊人，而零售业恰恰是美国最重要的经济部门之一。\n更令人担忧的是，ISM上周公布的制造业就业数据同样跌至历史低谷。\n\n\n第二，作为就业市场的即时指标，初请失业金人数的表现依旧惨淡。\n\n数据显示，过去七周美国初请失业金人数分别录得328.3万、664.8万、660.6万、524.5万、442.7万、384.6万和316.9万，自攀上660万的高峰后便整体呈递减趋势，但实际数据相当惊人。合计超过3000万人申请失业救济也就意味着，16%的美国劳动力存在就业困难。\n调查机构盖洛普在4月13日至19日进行的一项民意调查发现，10%的美国人因感染了冠状病毒而暂时失去了工作，2%的美国公民认为自己“永久性地”失去了工作；另有26%的雇员表示他们的收入减少了，15%的在职员工称工作时间明显缩短。\n\n\n第三，美国经济贡献率最高的几个州（比如加州），都是受疫情的重灾区。\n\n据华尔街日报报道，作为美国重要的经济中心，纽约受疫情影响相当严重。仅仅是布鲁克林一个区，就有数百万人面临失业威胁。另据Sierra Sun Times报道，加州的失业率在3月底已上升到5.3%，非农就业岗位削减了99500个。\n\n不过华尔街日报也指出，由于统计数据的方式存在差异，非农就业数据和失业率的时效性没有每周公布的初请失业金人数那么高，所以相关数据不一定能代表美国最新的就业状况。\n高盛则指出，劳工部的一项名为U-6的统计数据，可能更能体现美国就业市场的现状。\n\n据悉，该数据统计的是包括实时失业人员、有兼职工作但仍想找全职工作的雇员以及长期无法找到工作的求职者的总人数。高盛经济学家预测，这一数据占美国劳动力总人口的比例可能会飙升到29%，远高于2007-09年经济衰退后创造的峰值17.2%，更能体现近期的就业形势。\n\n▶ 别忽视这些重要指标\nAXIOS网站分析师Dion Rabouin指出，美国4月非农就业数据出现前所未有的巨大萎缩基本是毋庸置疑的，因为仅仅7周内就有超过3000万人申请失业救济。但这并不说明该报告无看点，预计其将提供一些关键指引，为美国经济复苏前景提供重要的参考。\nDion Rabouin强调，除了新增非农就业人数和失业率之外，一些在就业报告中未曾提及的数据和指标也非常重要。\n第一，有多少未被计入新增非农就业人数的工人仍与雇主有联系。\n\n这方面的数据外界很难从政府的官方统计中得到了解，但相关数据对于就业市场的复苏速度有很强的指示性。AXIOS的调查发现，在那些被解雇的工人中，85%的人认为一旦危机结束，他们将“有可能”重返工作岗位，60%的人认为“很有可能”重新得到工作。\n\n第二，平均时薪和薪资增长速度的变化趋势。\n\n美国银行全球研究分析师预计，4月份美国平均每周工作时间将跌至33.5小时，创下历史新低。不过，随着整体薪资水平在3月份已跌至谷底，4月薪资水平或出现1.0%（月度）或3.9%（年度）的复合增长率。但薪资增长并不代表就业市场彻底回暖，投资者不要过度乐观。\n\n第三，就业市场的新趋势。\n\n根据劳工统计局的最新报告，2月至3月间，因工作机会减少以及工作条件恶化，从事兼职工作的工人人数增加了130万，增幅达46%。\nDion Rabouin认为，由于大部分企业在疫情期间损失惨重，所以哪怕经济重启后这些企业也不会马上恢复以往的招聘规模，更不大可能增加额外的工作岗位——因为它们将尽一切可能节省支出，以留出应对下一次危机的流动资金。有鉴于此，成本相对较低的兼职员工需求可能会越来越大，这将改变就业市场的格局。\n\n第四，政府救助法案的实施效果。\n\n据外媒报道，有小企业主抱怨道，政府的中小企业援助计划设计得很糟糕，而且由于失业人数的增加和政府福利支出的负担加剧，相关救助计划可能会逐步缩水。\n\n第五，就业人口比例。\n\n华尔街日报分析称，就业人口占美国总人口的比例是体现美国就业市场潜力和增长前景的重要指标。数据显示，这一比例在1月份达到衰退后的峰值61.2%，3月份降至60%。分析认为，该数据可能在4月份继续萎缩，这也意味着美国将出现大量的剩余劳动力，这会给社会管理和治安带来一定压力。\n\n▶ 市场反应预测：美元不为所动，黄金、美股或有异动\n和3月份非农数据出炉前类似，在长达一个月的等待中，无数分析师已经为这份可能是史上最糟糕的非农就业报告作了充分预热，所以数据最终出来那一刻，市场恐怕不会有太多异动。不过具体来看，不同市场的反应程度可能会不太一样。\n美元如今涨势凌厉，就算大小非农齐齐爆雷，恐怕也难以打压其涨势。\n\n摩根大通驻伦敦的外汇策略师保罗•麦格耶西（Paul Meggyesi）和梅拉•钱丹（Meera Chandan）表示，地缘政治冲突和贸易局势的变化正在巩固美元的涨势，相比之下，黄金和美股更可能出现异动。\n\n黄金最有可能成为新增非农就业人数暴跌的受益者。\nFX Empire分析师David Becker指出，虽然现货黄金目前的交投区间比较狭窄，但由于对冲基金仍在继续多黄金期货和期权，黄金价格隐含波动率（Gold implied volatility）在周二收盘收升至24%，运行于近期高位。波动率的上升意味着金价在未来可能出现更大起伏，而大小非农最有可能成为触发金价大涨或暴跌的导火索。\n从技术面来看，黄金周线图正在构建上升三角楔形，金价可能在近期试探4月份创造的近期高位1747美元。周四因市场预期美国恐出现负利率，两年期和五年期美债收益率因此再创历史新低，金价也连破三大关口一度上破1720美元。非农的糟糕表现或将助推金价进一步上行。\n\n和欣欣向荣的金市相反，股市继续遭到华尔街一众大佬的唱衰。路透在4月16-30日对北美、欧洲和日本的34位基金经理进行的调查显示，基金经理们建议投资者将股票在投资组合模型中的占比从3月的45.9%削减至45.1%，为近七个月来最低水平。\n分析认为，和韧劲十足的美元不同，美股的抗风险性并不强，投机资本随时可能因一些风吹草动而大规模撤出股市，投资者切不可轻视大小非农的威力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922460255,"gmtCreate":1587644305977,"gmtModify":1704365062550,"author":{"id":"3496435635261509","authorId":"3496435635261509","name":"王天山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976d3f99f47e81271eefa68a059b8a70","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496435635261509","authorIdStr":"3496435635261509"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTZ\">$赫兹(HTZ)$</a>要破产的节奏","listText":"<a 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