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啦啦啦说说
2019-10-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
买了11.1号的看涨期权,涨20个点,大概能×几倍?
啦啦啦说说
2019-10-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
买了11.1号的290的看涨期权,能由1.42变成多少?买了13手能变成10元吗?
啦啦啦说说
2019-08-08
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
请跳水好吗?
啦啦啦说说
2021-01-20
$跟谁学(GSX)$
名师都快跑没了吧。
啦啦啦说说
2018-11-06
$玉龙生态材料有限公司(YECO)$该跌了吧?回到4块可好?
啦啦啦说说
2018-12-14
$通用电气(GE)$今晚肯定会涨得,7.8元见。
啦啦啦说说
2019-06-21
$苹果(AAPL)$ 200咯
啦啦啦说说
2018-11-02
$玉龙生态材料有限公司(YECO)$睡觉了,明天看看是不是跌到了5块多,做空要赔死了。
啦啦啦说说
2019-08-12
$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$
怎么一下子跳水了吗?今晚我期权买的涨啊
啦啦啦说说
2019-03-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$那些空特斯拉的人不知道在想啥。。上海分厂都如火如荼建着呢。。你还想咋滴,你以为特斯拉这个品牌说砸了就砸了啊。。
啦啦啦说说
2019-07-11
$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 亚马逊要成为市值第一了吗?
啦啦啦说说
2023-01-12
杀了个逼
不要抄底亚马逊!分析师列出三大看跌理由
啦啦啦说说
2020-12-17
想买来着,但是怂了
啦啦啦说说
2019-06-19
$苹果(AAPL)$ 垃圾苹果
啦啦啦说说
2019-01-02
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)开始跳水。十米跳水
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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亚马逊要成为市值第一了吗?","listText":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 亚马逊要成为市值第一了吗?","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 亚马逊要成为市值第一了吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990733281","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628714386,"gmtCreate":1673490688645,"gmtModify":1673491507078,"author":{"id":"3495422768973691","authorId":"3495422768973691","authorIdStr":"3495422768973691","name":"啦啦啦说说","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495422768973691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"杀了个逼","listText":"杀了个逼","text":"杀了个逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628714386","repostId":"2302959059","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2302959059","pubTimestamp":1673342908,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2302959059?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-10 17:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"不要抄底亚马逊!分析师列出三大看跌理由","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2302959059","media":"智通财经","summary":"在过去的12个月里,亚马逊下跌了约47%,而标普500指数同期下跌17%。尽管如此,Seeking Alpha独立分析师Cavenagh Research认为,亚马逊股价可能会继续走低,甚至可能跌至7","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在过去的12个月里,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>下跌了约47%,而标普500指数同期下跌17%。</p><p>尽管如此,Seeking Alpha独立分析师Cavenagh Research认为,亚马逊股价可能会继续走低,甚至可能跌至70.65美元,主要有以下三个原因:</p><p><b>1. 盈利能力不足</b></p><p>虽然亚马逊公司的股价持续下跌,但亚马逊管理层正在加强承诺,通过成本控制来提高盈利能力。</p><p>值得注意的是,亚马逊已经在2022年底宣布裁员约1万名员工。根据亚马逊首席执行官Andy Jassy的最新声明,裁员人数已经增长到1.8万。除了裁员,亚马逊还在寻找其他节省成本的机会。在此背景下,管理层估计,该公司2022年在电子商务基础设施上的资本支出预计比2021年减少约100亿美元。</p><p>但Cavenagh Research指出,尽管从投资者的角度来看,这些努力是值得赞赏的,但并不足以改变他对亚马逊盈利能力的看法。投资者应该考虑到,在过去的12个月里(参考2022年第三季度),亚马逊只创造了129.7亿美元的营业利润。与一年前相比,亚马逊的盈利在2022年惊人地下降了54%。如果根据汇率因素进行调整,营业利润下降了57%。</p><p>作为参考,Cavenagh Research假设每个被解雇的亚马逊员工的平均年薪为9万美元,那么亚马逊节省的运营成本约为16.2亿美元。这几乎改变不了什么:根据计算,亚马逊的EV/EBIT倍数将从大约80倍下降到72倍,这仍然太贵了,不值得投资。</p><p><b>2. 增长放缓</b></p><p>围绕亚马逊盈利能力不足的担忧因其增长急剧放缓而加剧。值得注意的是,亚马逊的营收同比增速现在已经低于行业中值。这里与亚马逊进行对比的是非必需消费品行业,而不是包括网络安全和数据分析等高增长领域的科技行业。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/380d9016441925ef082302a25a7567b1\" tg-width=\"1313\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>亚马逊增长放缓使得该公司更难提高盈利能力,因为不太可能实现额外的规模优势。也许更重要的是,亚马逊增长放缓给投资者情绪带来了压力,并改变了市场叙事,从“让我们把亚马逊当成一家成长型公司来估值”,变成了“让我们看看这家公司是否真的能盈利”。</p><p>公平地说,AWS很可能继续成为亚马逊增长的推动力。Cavenagh Research仍然看好云计算、数据存储以及分析和机器学习等其他服务的前景。然而,投资者应该考虑到,云行业的扩张是一个长期的故事。亚马逊的云业务在未来几个季度可能会面临压力,因为对经济衰退的担忧可能会导致许多AWS客户收紧他们的软件和技术预算。</p><p>值得注意的是,AWS业绩在2022年第三季度已经未能达到分析师的预期。AWS最大的竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)也令市场感到失望。微软披露,与2021年同期相比,旗下Azure的增长放缓了5个百分点。</p><p><b>3.宏观经济担忧</b></p><p>亚马逊显然容易受到宏观经济挑战的影响。</p><p>Cavenagh Research认为亚马逊额外的Prime Day是“为了满足市场营收预期而采取的绝望之举”,是为了偷偷掩盖零售额的下降。</p><p>但亚马逊需求放缓的情况可能比之前估计的还要严重。根据Semrush的数据,亚马逊网站的全球访问量快速下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7ef83a94b6e6497e1bde54b4d699c1\" tg-width=\"1354\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>考虑到宏观挑战,Cavenagh Research现在认为亚马逊将很难实现本已令市场失望的第四季度业绩指引。亚马逊预计Q4营收在1400亿美元至1480亿美元之间,营业利润预计在0至40亿美元之间。如果亚马逊Q4业绩未能达到预期,那么其股价可能会大幅下跌。</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>亚马逊面临诸多不利因素,但Cavenagh Research表示,做空亚马逊从来都不是明智的举动——至少在过去不是。</p><p>尽管面临短期阻力,亚马逊仍是世界上管理最好的公司之一,这家电子商务巨头的长期前景依然光明。其次,投资者应该考虑到,亚马逊的盈利经常低于预期,而市场并不太在意。可以说,亚马逊教会了投资者不要只看短期会计和盈利目标。因此,盈利下降可能不会导致亚马逊股票被大幅抛售。</p><p>不过,鉴于增长放缓和宏观经济挑战,Cavenagh Research认为亚马逊很难证明其估值的合理性。</p><p>Cavenagh Research重申对亚马逊的“卖出”评级,目标价为70.65美元。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不要抄底亚马逊!分析师列出三大看跌理由\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-10 17:28 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/859676.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在过去的12个月里,亚马逊下跌了约47%,而标普500指数同期下跌17%。尽管如此,Seeking Alpha独立分析师Cavenagh Research认为,亚马逊股价可能会继续走低,甚至可能跌至70.65美元,主要有以下三个原因:1. 盈利能力不足虽然亚马逊公司的股价持续下跌,但亚马逊管理层正在加强承诺,通过成本控制来提高盈利能力。值得注意的是,亚马逊已经在2022年底宣布裁员约1万名员工。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/859676.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3473f757d00eee50292777a0505620c4","relate_stocks":{"IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4524":"宅经济概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY 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(MDIS) (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/859676.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302959059","content_text":"在过去的12个月里,亚马逊下跌了约47%,而标普500指数同期下跌17%。尽管如此,Seeking Alpha独立分析师Cavenagh Research认为,亚马逊股价可能会继续走低,甚至可能跌至70.65美元,主要有以下三个原因:1. 盈利能力不足虽然亚马逊公司的股价持续下跌,但亚马逊管理层正在加强承诺,通过成本控制来提高盈利能力。值得注意的是,亚马逊已经在2022年底宣布裁员约1万名员工。根据亚马逊首席执行官Andy Jassy的最新声明,裁员人数已经增长到1.8万。除了裁员,亚马逊还在寻找其他节省成本的机会。在此背景下,管理层估计,该公司2022年在电子商务基础设施上的资本支出预计比2021年减少约100亿美元。但Cavenagh Research指出,尽管从投资者的角度来看,这些努力是值得赞赏的,但并不足以改变他对亚马逊盈利能力的看法。投资者应该考虑到,在过去的12个月里(参考2022年第三季度),亚马逊只创造了129.7亿美元的营业利润。与一年前相比,亚马逊的盈利在2022年惊人地下降了54%。如果根据汇率因素进行调整,营业利润下降了57%。作为参考,Cavenagh Research假设每个被解雇的亚马逊员工的平均年薪为9万美元,那么亚马逊节省的运营成本约为16.2亿美元。这几乎改变不了什么:根据计算,亚马逊的EV/EBIT倍数将从大约80倍下降到72倍,这仍然太贵了,不值得投资。2. 增长放缓围绕亚马逊盈利能力不足的担忧因其增长急剧放缓而加剧。值得注意的是,亚马逊的营收同比增速现在已经低于行业中值。这里与亚马逊进行对比的是非必需消费品行业,而不是包括网络安全和数据分析等高增长领域的科技行业。亚马逊增长放缓使得该公司更难提高盈利能力,因为不太可能实现额外的规模优势。也许更重要的是,亚马逊增长放缓给投资者情绪带来了压力,并改变了市场叙事,从“让我们把亚马逊当成一家成长型公司来估值”,变成了“让我们看看这家公司是否真的能盈利”。公平地说,AWS很可能继续成为亚马逊增长的推动力。Cavenagh Research仍然看好云计算、数据存储以及分析和机器学习等其他服务的前景。然而,投资者应该考虑到,云行业的扩张是一个长期的故事。亚马逊的云业务在未来几个季度可能会面临压力,因为对经济衰退的担忧可能会导致许多AWS客户收紧他们的软件和技术预算。值得注意的是,AWS业绩在2022年第三季度已经未能达到分析师的预期。AWS最大的竞争对手微软(MSFT.US)也令市场感到失望。微软披露,与2021年同期相比,旗下Azure的增长放缓了5个百分点。3.宏观经济担忧亚马逊显然容易受到宏观经济挑战的影响。Cavenagh Research认为亚马逊额外的Prime Day是“为了满足市场营收预期而采取的绝望之举”,是为了偷偷掩盖零售额的下降。但亚马逊需求放缓的情况可能比之前估计的还要严重。根据Semrush的数据,亚马逊网站的全球访问量快速下降。考虑到宏观挑战,Cavenagh Research现在认为亚马逊将很难实现本已令市场失望的第四季度业绩指引。亚马逊预计Q4营收在1400亿美元至1480亿美元之间,营业利润预计在0至40亿美元之间。如果亚马逊Q4业绩未能达到预期,那么其股价可能会大幅下跌。总结亚马逊面临诸多不利因素,但Cavenagh Research表示,做空亚马逊从来都不是明智的举动——至少在过去不是。尽管面临短期阻力,亚马逊仍是世界上管理最好的公司之一,这家电子商务巨头的长期前景依然光明。其次,投资者应该考虑到,亚马逊的盈利经常低于预期,而市场并不太在意。可以说,亚马逊教会了投资者不要只看短期会计和盈利目标。因此,盈利下降可能不会导致亚马逊股票被大幅抛售。不过,鉴于增长放缓和宏观经济挑战,Cavenagh Research认为亚马逊很难证明其估值的合理性。Cavenagh Research重申对亚马逊的“卖出”评级,目标价为70.65美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397182815,"gmtCreate":1608207864037,"gmtModify":1703851766245,"author":{"id":"3495422768973691","authorId":"3495422768973691","authorIdStr":"3495422768973691","name":"啦啦啦说说","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495422768973691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"想买来着,但是怂了","listText":"想买来着,但是怂了","text":"想买来着,但是怂了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397182815","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":904885936,"gmtCreate":1560959334325,"gmtModify":1704701150616,"author":{"id":"3495422768973691","authorId":"3495422768973691","authorIdStr":"3495422768973691","name":"啦啦啦说说","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495422768973691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 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