zht612071的个人主页 - 老虎社区

zht612071

zht612071

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2020-12-14

$蔚来(NIO)$刚刚上车的[开心]

2021-02-18

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$炒美股第一次浮亏这么多[喷血]

2021-01-27

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$$百度(BIDU)$今天大跌难道是因为早上我盘后上车了[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

2021-03-26

$百度(BIDU)$浮盈40%到现在浮亏20%[喷血]

2020-12-11

$蔚来(NIO)$都在骂，也没见跌多少，现在比开盘价还高点

2020-11-13

$蔚来(NIO)$10号44.44卖的，39犹豫了一下没买，又卖飞了，看来还是信仰不够坚定。

2021-02-25

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$A股跌，港股跌，晚上美股跌，没完没了了[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-02-02

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$31.31加仓，希望别被埋，睡觉[微笑]

2021-07-06

$百度(BIDU)$私有化回大A吧[傲娇]

2021-02-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$1.15抄底的终于回本了[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] ，感谢财神爷

2021-03-19

离万亿越来越远了[捂脸] [喷血]

万亿港元在望，百度怎样踢好临门一脚？

2021-02-04

哈哈，去年中了一手思摩尔，今年中了一手快手[开心] [开心] [开心]

2020-11-13

$蔚来(NIO)$任何时候买入都能赚钱

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[笑哭]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382281019,"gmtCreate":1613452055331,"gmtModify":1613452055331,"author":{"id":"3495347576682294","authorId":"3495347576682294","name":"zht612071","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129532a24906e6cab2c9e9c1f21e5fda","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>1.15抄底的终于回本了[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;，感谢财神爷","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>1.15抄底的终于回本了[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;，感谢财神爷","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$1.15抄底的终于回本了[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 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[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350109200","repostId":"1189596605","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189596605","pubTimestamp":1616151807,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189596605?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 19:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"万亿港元在望，百度怎样踢好临门一脚？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189596605","media":"字母榜","summary":"以252港元发行价计算，回港二次上市的百度总市值达到7129亿港元，相比3月18日美股收盘价，总市值上浮3%，距离万亿港元只差临门一脚。\n四年前冲击千亿美元时，百度也是只差临门一脚，2017年10月1","content":"<p><b>以252港元发行价计算，回港二次上市的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>总市值达到7129亿港元，相比3月18日美股收盘价，总市值上浮3%，距离万亿港元只差临门一脚。</b></p>\n<p>四年前冲击千亿美元时，百度也是只差临门一脚，2017年10月18日，百度股价来到274.97美元历史高点，总市值954.15亿美元，可差的那一点点，却直到4年后在造车消息助推下，才得以补齐。</p>\n<p>2021年2月9日，百度市值终于突破了千亿美元。此时正在着手准备赴港上市的百度，已经有了更大的远景——冲击万亿港元。<b>和四年前一样，百度距离目标并不远，但要想顺利抵达目标，百度还是得好好想想怎么踢好这临门一脚。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b904afba2eefce48f8afc88329704248\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>投资市场对百度的回归给予了很高期待。据路透旗下IFR报道，3月12日百度公开招股不到半天，就已获得足够认购。综合多家券商数据，<b>截至3月17日认购结束，百度IPO融资认购额473.51亿港元，孖展倍数34倍。</b></p>\n<p><b>对百度来说，这是一次价值重估的全新机会。</b></p>\n<p>在美国个别科技股不断跌荡的大环境下，作为参照物的百度美股保持了稳定，基本维持在900亿美元上下。而过去一年中的明星股，如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>均出现了两位数的大幅度下滑。</p>\n<p>Wedbush科技股分析师丹·艾维斯（Dan Ives）评论道：“在这场科技股熊市中，市场的核心观点是，这些高位科技股都是技术面不稳定且没有传统估值支撑的股票。”目前，这些股票都在经历“痛苦而残酷的估值消化期”。</p>\n<p>艾维斯同时指出，一些估值较低的科技股，其长期利好因素并未改变，并且可能会在未来逐渐成为市场关注焦点。百度无疑是其中的代表之一。</p>\n<p>巩固移动生态基本盘之外，百度过去10年间持续投资AI的潜在价值，开始得到市场正视和认可。2020年1月《哈佛商业评论》发布的“2019全球AI公司五强”榜单中，百度打败华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等强劲对手，位列榜单第四，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>，也成为唯一进入全球TOP5的中国企业。</p>\n<p>在《哈佛商业评论》看来，入选榜单的五家公司，凭借其在人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>技术、商业化及生态方面的能力，引领了这一波人工智能技术在全球范围内的商业落地、发展和变革。</p>\n<p>在给出的百度入选理由中，<b>《哈佛商业评论》点出了其在移动生态、智能云和智能驾驶等方面的综合领先优势，这也恰好是百度在2020 Q4财报中对外提及的三层增长引擎。</b></p>\n<p>然而，另一个不容忽视的现实是，<b>随着互联网巨头的无边界扩张，百度几乎在业务的各个方面都面临着激烈竞争。</b>即便3月23日上市当天，百度能够成功突破万亿港元，但接下来百度仍然需要回答：如何留在万亿俱乐部，并在牌桌上掌握更多话语权？</p>\n<p>百度“坐”在车里，顺利突破千亿美元大关。<b>造车故事成为刺激外界重估百度的导火索，</b>“百度又成了”的评论一时间刷爆网络。</p>\n<p>其实，百度入局智能汽车，并非新鲜事。在移动互联网尚在蓬勃发展初期，百度就已经锚定智能驾驶和AI芯片领域，相继推出Apollo计划、Robotaxi车队，以及搭载DuerOS智能助手的小度智能设备和AI芯片昆仑、鸿鹄系列芯片。</p>\n<p>凭借先发优势，百度在自动驾驶领域筑起了技术壁垒。美国科技调研机构Navigant Research（NR）出具的自动驾驶竞争力排行榜单中，按照策略能力和执行能力两个排名维度，百度已由2019年的竞争者象限，晋升至2020年的领导者象限，与谷歌Waymo、通用Cruise等并列第一梯队。</p>\n<p>Apollo也被《2020北京无人驾驶汽车道路测试报告》评为中国最佳自动驾驶公司，连续第三年在所有测试类别中领先于同行，累计测试里程达430万英里，持有199块中国自动驾驶牌照。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d496fb375250f77a668d37c911b0fd98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>但二级市场对此并不买账，Apollo的技术价值，未能让百度股价扶摇直上。背后的核心原因之一，在于无人驾驶商业模式短期内看不到落地变现的可能性。</b></p>\n<p>这也不是百度一家的难题。该领域带头大哥Waymo CEO John Krafcik在1月份接受《金融时报》采访时，坦陈：“自动驾驶汽车实在是太磨人了……这家伙比把火箭送入轨道还要难，因为在安全方面我们要持续不断进行重复测试才能安心。”</p>\n<p>贝恩咨询公司也将自动驾驶汽车至2030年的市场份额预测，从2018年的30％，回调到 4%-9%。“在这个时间点上，现实已经浇醒了狂热的炒作。”贝恩合伙人 Mark Gottfredson 表示。</p>\n<p>在自动驾驶行业因发展速度不及预期而烦恼时，那些步子迈得相对小一些的造车新势力们，开始迎来行业第一波高潮：2020年内特斯拉市值飙升到8000亿美元以上，一跃超过全球五大畅销汽车制造集团市值总和，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>市值突破900亿美元，小鹏、理想也来到300亿美元以上。</p>\n<p><b>百度看到了让Apollo技术商业化的最佳路径：在继续坚持做汽车界“Android”技术开放平台，帮助车企造好车之外，躬身入局，联手吉利，亲尝整车制造的酸甜苦辣。</b></p>\n<p>凭借在智能驾驶和AI芯片领域的提早布局，如同特斯拉一样，百度造车的优势在于软硬件一体化自研体系。在2020Q4财报电话会以上，百度管理层表示百度汽车有望在三年内推向市场。</p>\n<p>根据灼识咨询报告，2019年-2025年，中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车市场预期以37.1%的复合年增长率增长，于2025年达到11829亿元。</p>\n<p><b>“钱景”之外，百度造车，还能激发场景化定义下的终端新生态。</b></p>\n<p>IDC中国助理副总裁王吉平总结出的2021年中国智能终端市场十大预测之一，提到“随着消费者使用终端场景的广泛分布，在不同的场景中都酝酿着一种内在的场景生态。如娱乐终端生态、健康终端生态、教育终端生态、智能家居智能生态等多场景生态。”</p>\n<p>在汽车逐步成为未来人们生活中最重要的智能终端过程中，通过将场景扩展到汽车大屏，百度原有的搜索+信息流内容，就可以横向打通，将流量生意做到极致，提早培养更多人对百度系产品的依赖。</p>\n<p>尤其在互联网转入存量竞争阶段，任何一块屏的背后，都牵扯着用户时长的争夺。开发更多应用场景，对百度来说，不啻为一项更有效的手段。一旦顺利铺开，作为工作、家庭之外的第三汽车空间，就可以进一步提升百度的ARPU值。</p>\n<p><b>但眼下对百度更重要的一点是，要尽快让轮子落地。在等待规模量产的3年间，百度需要做好项目流程管理，有计划对外披露造车的具体细节和进展，不断增强外界的投资信心，这样才能通过二级市场，提振股价表现。</b></p>\n<p>大众就是一个例子。在全力转向电动汽车之后，大众也搬来了新能源车的一些“套路”，3月16日举办了公司有史以来的首个“Power Day”，通过阐述<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6N.UK\">大众集团</a>的电动化战略，令其股票单日暴涨25%，总市值飙升至1600亿美元以上。</p>\n<p>蔚来更是通过在1月9日NIO Day 2020上发布首款轿车ET7的举动，助推其市值跃入千亿美元。</p>\n<p>“智能电动汽车是未来、是趋势，但想让用户掏钱买单，各家厂商就不得不时不时出来宣布些新技术或是新进展，这也是向投资者证明实力的一种方式。”一位新能源汽车行业内人士向字母榜表示。</p>\n<p>而百度下场造车的另一层优势则在于，待L5无人驾驶成熟之后，凭借百度业已建立的汽车工厂，能够快速组建成规模的Robotaxi车队，配合百度App和百度地图，直接杀入现在出租车、租车业务和滴滴等线上打车平台的腹地，甚至完成商业模式的颠覆。</p>\n<p>灼识咨询报告中也把经营Robotaxi与共乘视为自动驾驶的最大变现机会之一，其2025年潜在市场总额预期为14581亿元，超过新能源汽车的11829亿元。</p>\n<p>与当前的造车新势力们相比，百度造车在软硬件技术之外的另一优势，是其强大的“钞能力”。</p>\n<p>在中国搜索引擎市场，百度2020年仍占据72.7%份额，百度App MAU5.38亿，DAU2.08亿。依托手百超级App，百度“搜索+信息流”双引擎，和“百家号+小程序+托管页”三大支柱构建起来的移动生态，成为整个集团的现金牛。</p>\n<p>财报显示，2020年第四季度，百度实现营收303亿元，归属百度的净利润（非美国通用会计准则）达到69亿元，连续四个季度超市场预期，且该季度内百度核心强势反弹，实现营收231亿元，环比增长8%，远高于历年同期的环比增速表现。</p>\n<p><b>尽管百度依然是中国流量数据访问量最大的软件之一，但其流量质量和业务规模陆续被阿里、腾讯等超越，并遭受着这些超级App的流量分割。</b></p>\n<p>2019年5月，百度搜索公司战略转型为移动生态事业群组（MEG），百度集团执行副总裁沈抖在大搜基础上进一步提出了人格化和服务化两大战略，希望重塑移动端内容生态，并探索搜索之外的边界。</p>\n<p>在信息孤岛化的格局之下，<b>搜索不仅作为一种必备能力，更演化为一种破局的资格门票。</b></p>\n<p>架构调整后的百度移动生态中，百家号、小程序、托管页，势必会逐渐成为百度搜索的基础流量，完成新一轮增长，而三者相融配合的商业支持能力，则是百度寻找未来变现创新点的土壤。</p>\n<p>一个明显的变化是，百度托管页营收开始逐步攀升，由2019年占到核心在线营销服务的四分之一，增长至2020年Q3季度的近三分之一。截至目前，百度托管页已拥有60万企业客户。</p>\n<p>作为百度移动生态另两大支柱的百家号创作者数量达380万，其中原创作者数量较一年前增长近三倍；百度智能小程序MAU达4.14亿（含开源小程序），智能小程序数量同比增长124%。</p>\n<p>显然，<b>在百度App增长趋缓之下，留给沈抖团队的新方向或许在于深挖百家号、小程序和托管页的成长空间，甚至可以尝试将百度App流量，通过精细化运营，导流向百家号等入口。</b></p>\n<p>另外，通过服务化新战略，百度也值得重新开拓搜索的边界，从连接人与信息，真正扩展到人与人、人与服务，实现搜索即服务的终极目标，最终让用户完成在百度移动生态体系内的流量和业务闭环。</p>\n<p>YY直播则是百度移动生态通过战略并购实现开源的典型样本。</p>\n<p>去年5月，百度宣布发力直播业务，将直播列为百度移动生态的年度重点方向之一，主推“泛知识类直播”。李彦宏更是在Q1财报电话会议上称，直播十分适合百度进行商业化变现，“我们认为百度的生态系统跟直播是非常合适的，这也是我们可以进行变现的一个很好的渠道。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdb26d75d93076428d0d96ef820f11a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>对比2月份港股上市的“短视频第一股”快手，其总市值已经破万亿港元，并带动了美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、欢聚时代等相关概念股走高。</p>\n<p>携YY直播即将登陆港股的百度，也势必将更获投资市场认可。同时<b>YY直播的并入，也会有利于提升百度用户粘性、提高ARPU值，</b>带来如李彦宏所说的相关业务之间的彼此增益。</p>\n<p>从百度加码直播、收购YY直播，到微信加大视频号投入，<b>传统流量巨头正在逐步找回失地，并将竞争范围扩大至内容到消费的全域范围内。</b>加入直播业务之后，百度正在拓宽平台对用户的服务体验和对客户的商业价值，这也会为百度多元化的变现路径提供新的通道。</p>\n<p>在重塑百度移动生态中，打通账号体系也是必不可少的一个重点。过去，百度各个产品线，缺少互相引流的一大原因就在于百度没有一条线把这些产品穿起来，即缺一个完善的账户体系。</p>\n<p>现在，通过百家号、小程序、托管页和百度网盘等产品，百度正在重建账号体系。</p>\n<p>而增速迅猛的百度智能云，则在百度扩张产品功能和寻求用户增长之时，起到了一定的降本促效作用。</p>\n<p>2018-2020年，百度核心业务的云服务收入分别为30亿元、64亿元、92亿元，同比增速分别为112%、44%。</p>\n<p>IDC《中国人工智能云服务市场研究报告(2020H1)》报告数据中，百度智能云以27.5%的市场份额，位居中国AI公有云第一，连续三次夺冠。放大到整个公有云市场，百度智能云也是仅次于阿里云、腾讯云和华为云的TO4。</p>\n<p>灼识咨询报告显示，中国公有云服务行业市场规模预期将增至2025年的5771亿元，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为37.2%。而百度所在的智能云解决方案供应商的潜在市场，也有望于2025年达到1137亿元。</p>\n<p><b>行业前景广阔之外，云服务市场已经出现了首家盈利厂商</b>——阿里云，其2020 Q4营收161亿元，经调整净利润2400万元。尽管数额不大，但这也侧面反映出云服务市场的需求增长和行业爆发的来临。</p>\n<p>国内某一线云服务厂商高管曾告诉字母榜，未来不管有多少厂商投资芯片，云服务竞争拼的“一定是短板战略，而非长板。哪个不行就没人选你，客户最终买的是一个服务。你哪个东西不行，你就麻烦了。”</p>\n<p>基于此，他预测，<b>未来的公有云市场集中度，一定会越来越高，且越来越多的企业将长于云，而具备全栈全场景AI能力的云服务商也将更有竞争力。</b></p>\n<p>该高管的言外之意是，<b>未来的云服务将是一场巨头的游戏。</b>这对百度们来说，反而是一件好事。</p>\n<p>作为百度核心AI技术引擎的百度大脑，就得益于其多年运用AI对互联网图文、视频等各种形式内容进行分类、理解及智能化处理的经验。</p>\n<p>灼识咨询在报告中将百度居于中国AI的领导地位，列了以下几个方面：</p>\n<p>‧ 拥有中国最多的AI专利数量以及AI专利申请数量，分别为2682件和9364件；</p>\n<p>‧ 按累计拉取请求计，深度学习框架飞桨居中国深度学习框架榜首，全球排名第二，仅次于Facebook Pytorch；</p>\n<p>‧ 按开发者数目计，百度开放式AI平台拥有超过265万名开发者，是中国最大的开放式AI平台；</p>\n<p>由此，百度成为迄今唯一已开发全栈AI能力（从芯片设计到深度学习框架及应用层面）的中国公司。</p>\n<p>接下来，百度智能云唯一需要做的，可能就是持续扩展更多用户和签约客户，坚定投入，拿下更多智慧城市和智能交通订单，努力成为“微软第二”。</p>\n<p>微软2014年确定“移动为先、云为先”战略后的第五个年头，其智能云业务就已经在2019财年四季财报中，达到114亿美元营收，同比增长19%，且首次成为营收最大的业务板块，超越了包含微软起家的Windows业务的更多个人计算业务板块的113亿美元。</p>\n<p>萨提亚·纳德拉也凭此业绩，让微软坐上了当时的全球市值最高王座。（2019年7月19日，微软市值1.05万亿美元，第二名苹果市值9463亿美元）</p>\n<p>过去一年里，百度股价实现了一次U型反弹，为此公司董事会还特意准备了一份额外惊喜，向部分员工发放了“U奖金”。</p>\n<p>U型线的后半段，一个低点是2020 年 6 月，百度市值仅有375.5亿美元；一个高点是2021 年 2 月 ，百度市值突破千亿美元大关。</p>\n<p>8个月时间里，百度的基本面其实没有发生任何变化，但股价却在2020年第三季度财报之后持续走高。这其中既有<b>投资市场对百度认知的纠偏——逐步从只是一家互联网营销公司，转向认可百度在AI领域的潜在价值，也有对越来越成熟的商业化落地场景的期待。</b></p>\n<p>以AI第三次浪潮为例，其中<b>崛起的云服务、智能电动汽车、AI芯片，都在逐步走出实验室创新阶段，探寻到各自的早期用户。</b></p>\n<p>科技界有一个著名的“跨越鸿沟”理论，恰恰能说明这一现象。一款高科技产品/创新服务的早期市场和主流市场之间存在着一条巨大的“鸿沟”，能否顺利跨越鸿沟并进入主流市场，成功赢得实用主义者的支持，就决定着这款产品/服务的成败。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8f83ec757f4021058c9e644839a551\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>现在，以新能源汽车为代表的百度AI技术，正在迎来跨越鸿沟的规模商业化前夜，与AI相关的落地场景，也开始进入收获期。</p>\n<p>中国整体AI投入也在催发行业更快成熟。相关数据显示，中国AI公司融资额已位居全球之首。自2015年起，中国AI相关的投资就已超越美国，2019年更是达到467.6亿美元，与之相比，美国则为386.5亿美元。</p>\n<p>这将是百度在三天后的港股市场上赢得投资者信任的最大底气，也将成为百度冲进万亿港元门槛的最强助力。</p>\n<p>但能否长久留在万亿俱乐部，并实现万亿之上的新目标，<b>考验百度的可能是AI改变每一个普通人生活的速度和能力。</b></p>\n<p>就像萨提亚在《刷新》一书中期望微软能成为的那样，“让每个人和每个组织都能获得强大的技术，即技术的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>化”。</p>","source":"ZMB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>万亿港元在望，百度怎样踢好临门一脚？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n万亿港元在望，百度怎样踢好临门一脚？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 19:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w7UyoptrS1ArZPIwDAQVwg><strong>字母榜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>以252港元发行价计算，回港二次上市的百度总市值达到7129亿港元，相比3月18日美股收盘价，总市值上浮3%，距离万亿港元只差临门一脚。\n四年前冲击千亿美元时，百度也是只差临门一脚，2017年10月18日，百度股价来到274.97美元历史高点，总市值954.15亿美元，可差的那一点点，却直到4年后在造车消息助推下，才得以补齐。\n2021年2月9日，百度市值终于突破了千亿美元。此时正在着手准备...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w7UyoptrS1ArZPIwDAQVwg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb3c6c3c55603d00a14ee3389850b7f","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w7UyoptrS1ArZPIwDAQVwg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189596605","content_text":"以252港元发行价计算，回港二次上市的百度总市值达到7129亿港元，相比3月18日美股收盘价，总市值上浮3%，距离万亿港元只差临门一脚。\n四年前冲击千亿美元时，百度也是只差临门一脚，2017年10月18日，百度股价来到274.97美元历史高点，总市值954.15亿美元，可差的那一点点，却直到4年后在造车消息助推下，才得以补齐。\n2021年2月9日，百度市值终于突破了千亿美元。此时正在着手准备赴港上市的百度，已经有了更大的远景——冲击万亿港元。和四年前一样，百度距离目标并不远，但要想顺利抵达目标，百度还是得好好想想怎么踢好这临门一脚。\n\n投资市场对百度的回归给予了很高期待。据路透旗下IFR报道，3月12日百度公开招股不到半天，就已获得足够认购。综合多家券商数据，截至3月17日认购结束，百度IPO融资认购额473.51亿港元，孖展倍数34倍。\n对百度来说，这是一次价值重估的全新机会。\n在美国个别科技股不断跌荡的大环境下，作为参照物的百度美股保持了稳定，基本维持在900亿美元上下。而过去一年中的明星股，如特斯拉、Salesforce、Zoom均出现了两位数的大幅度下滑。\nWedbush科技股分析师丹·艾维斯（Dan Ives）评论道：“在这场科技股熊市中，市场的核心观点是，这些高位科技股都是技术面不稳定且没有传统估值支撑的股票。”目前，这些股票都在经历“痛苦而残酷的估值消化期”。\n艾维斯同时指出，一些估值较低的科技股，其长期利好因素并未改变，并且可能会在未来逐渐成为市场关注焦点。百度无疑是其中的代表之一。\n巩固移动生态基本盘之外，百度过去10年间持续投资AI的潜在价值，开始得到市场正视和认可。2020年1月《哈佛商业评论》发布的“2019全球AI公司五强”榜单中，百度打败华为、Facebook、IBM、腾讯等强劲对手，位列榜单第四，仅次于谷歌、苹果和微软，也成为唯一进入全球TOP5的中国企业。\n在《哈佛商业评论》看来，入选榜单的五家公司，凭借其在人工智能技术、商业化及生态方面的能力，引领了这一波人工智能技术在全球范围内的商业落地、发展和变革。\n在给出的百度入选理由中，《哈佛商业评论》点出了其在移动生态、智能云和智能驾驶等方面的综合领先优势，这也恰好是百度在2020 Q4财报中对外提及的三层增长引擎。\n然而，另一个不容忽视的现实是，随着互联网巨头的无边界扩张，百度几乎在业务的各个方面都面临着激烈竞争。即便3月23日上市当天，百度能够成功突破万亿港元，但接下来百度仍然需要回答：如何留在万亿俱乐部，并在牌桌上掌握更多话语权？\n百度“坐”在车里，顺利突破千亿美元大关。造车故事成为刺激外界重估百度的导火索，“百度又成了”的评论一时间刷爆网络。\n其实，百度入局智能汽车，并非新鲜事。在移动互联网尚在蓬勃发展初期，百度就已经锚定智能驾驶和AI芯片领域，相继推出Apollo计划、Robotaxi车队，以及搭载DuerOS智能助手的小度智能设备和AI芯片昆仑、鸿鹄系列芯片。\n凭借先发优势，百度在自动驾驶领域筑起了技术壁垒。美国科技调研机构Navigant Research（NR）出具的自动驾驶竞争力排行榜单中，按照策略能力和执行能力两个排名维度，百度已由2019年的竞争者象限，晋升至2020年的领导者象限，与谷歌Waymo、通用Cruise等并列第一梯队。\nApollo也被《2020北京无人驾驶汽车道路测试报告》评为中国最佳自动驾驶公司，连续第三年在所有测试类别中领先于同行，累计测试里程达430万英里，持有199块中国自动驾驶牌照。\n\n但二级市场对此并不买账，Apollo的技术价值，未能让百度股价扶摇直上。背后的核心原因之一，在于无人驾驶商业模式短期内看不到落地变现的可能性。\n这也不是百度一家的难题。该领域带头大哥Waymo CEO John Krafcik在1月份接受《金融时报》采访时，坦陈：“自动驾驶汽车实在是太磨人了……这家伙比把火箭送入轨道还要难，因为在安全方面我们要持续不断进行重复测试才能安心。”\n贝恩咨询公司也将自动驾驶汽车至2030年的市场份额预测，从2018年的30％，回调到 4%-9%。“在这个时间点上，现实已经浇醒了狂热的炒作。”贝恩合伙人 Mark Gottfredson 表示。\n在自动驾驶行业因发展速度不及预期而烦恼时，那些步子迈得相对小一些的造车新势力们，开始迎来行业第一波高潮：2020年内特斯拉市值飙升到8000亿美元以上，一跃超过全球五大畅销汽车制造集团市值总和，蔚来市值突破900亿美元，小鹏、理想也来到300亿美元以上。\n百度看到了让Apollo技术商业化的最佳路径：在继续坚持做汽车界“Android”技术开放平台，帮助车企造好车之外，躬身入局，联手吉利，亲尝整车制造的酸甜苦辣。\n凭借在智能驾驶和AI芯片领域的提早布局，如同特斯拉一样，百度造车的优势在于软硬件一体化自研体系。在2020Q4财报电话会以上，百度管理层表示百度汽车有望在三年内推向市场。\n根据灼识咨询报告，2019年-2025年，中国新能源汽车市场预期以37.1%的复合年增长率增长，于2025年达到11829亿元。\n“钱景”之外，百度造车，还能激发场景化定义下的终端新生态。\nIDC中国助理副总裁王吉平总结出的2021年中国智能终端市场十大预测之一，提到“随着消费者使用终端场景的广泛分布，在不同的场景中都酝酿着一种内在的场景生态。如娱乐终端生态、健康终端生态、教育终端生态、智能家居智能生态等多场景生态。”\n在汽车逐步成为未来人们生活中最重要的智能终端过程中，通过将场景扩展到汽车大屏，百度原有的搜索+信息流内容，就可以横向打通，将流量生意做到极致，提早培养更多人对百度系产品的依赖。\n尤其在互联网转入存量竞争阶段，任何一块屏的背后，都牵扯着用户时长的争夺。开发更多应用场景，对百度来说，不啻为一项更有效的手段。一旦顺利铺开，作为工作、家庭之外的第三汽车空间，就可以进一步提升百度的ARPU值。\n但眼下对百度更重要的一点是，要尽快让轮子落地。在等待规模量产的3年间，百度需要做好项目流程管理，有计划对外披露造车的具体细节和进展，不断增强外界的投资信心，这样才能通过二级市场，提振股价表现。\n大众就是一个例子。在全力转向电动汽车之后，大众也搬来了新能源车的一些“套路”，3月16日举办了公司有史以来的首个“Power Day”，通过阐述大众集团的电动化战略，令其股票单日暴涨25%，总市值飙升至1600亿美元以上。\n蔚来更是通过在1月9日NIO Day 2020上发布首款轿车ET7的举动，助推其市值跃入千亿美元。\n“智能电动汽车是未来、是趋势，但想让用户掏钱买单，各家厂商就不得不时不时出来宣布些新技术或是新进展，这也是向投资者证明实力的一种方式。”一位新能源汽车行业内人士向字母榜表示。\n而百度下场造车的另一层优势则在于，待L5无人驾驶成熟之后，凭借百度业已建立的汽车工厂，能够快速组建成规模的Robotaxi车队，配合百度App和百度地图，直接杀入现在出租车、租车业务和滴滴等线上打车平台的腹地，甚至完成商业模式的颠覆。\n灼识咨询报告中也把经营Robotaxi与共乘视为自动驾驶的最大变现机会之一，其2025年潜在市场总额预期为14581亿元，超过新能源汽车的11829亿元。\n与当前的造车新势力们相比，百度造车在软硬件技术之外的另一优势，是其强大的“钞能力”。\n在中国搜索引擎市场，百度2020年仍占据72.7%份额，百度App MAU5.38亿，DAU2.08亿。依托手百超级App，百度“搜索+信息流”双引擎，和“百家号+小程序+托管页”三大支柱构建起来的移动生态，成为整个集团的现金牛。\n财报显示，2020年第四季度，百度实现营收303亿元，归属百度的净利润（非美国通用会计准则）达到69亿元，连续四个季度超市场预期，且该季度内百度核心强势反弹，实现营收231亿元，环比增长8%，远高于历年同期的环比增速表现。\n尽管百度依然是中国流量数据访问量最大的软件之一，但其流量质量和业务规模陆续被阿里、腾讯等超越，并遭受着这些超级App的流量分割。\n2019年5月，百度搜索公司战略转型为移动生态事业群组（MEG），百度集团执行副总裁沈抖在大搜基础上进一步提出了人格化和服务化两大战略，希望重塑移动端内容生态，并探索搜索之外的边界。\n在信息孤岛化的格局之下，搜索不仅作为一种必备能力，更演化为一种破局的资格门票。\n架构调整后的百度移动生态中，百家号、小程序、托管页，势必会逐渐成为百度搜索的基础流量，完成新一轮增长，而三者相融配合的商业支持能力，则是百度寻找未来变现创新点的土壤。\n一个明显的变化是，百度托管页营收开始逐步攀升，由2019年占到核心在线营销服务的四分之一，增长至2020年Q3季度的近三分之一。截至目前，百度托管页已拥有60万企业客户。\n作为百度移动生态另两大支柱的百家号创作者数量达380万，其中原创作者数量较一年前增长近三倍；百度智能小程序MAU达4.14亿（含开源小程序），智能小程序数量同比增长124%。\n显然，在百度App增长趋缓之下，留给沈抖团队的新方向或许在于深挖百家号、小程序和托管页的成长空间，甚至可以尝试将百度App流量，通过精细化运营，导流向百家号等入口。\n另外，通过服务化新战略，百度也值得重新开拓搜索的边界，从连接人与信息，真正扩展到人与人、人与服务，实现搜索即服务的终极目标，最终让用户完成在百度移动生态体系内的流量和业务闭环。\nYY直播则是百度移动生态通过战略并购实现开源的典型样本。\n去年5月，百度宣布发力直播业务，将直播列为百度移动生态的年度重点方向之一，主推“泛知识类直播”。李彦宏更是在Q1财报电话会议上称，直播十分适合百度进行商业化变现，“我们认为百度的生态系统跟直播是非常合适的，这也是我们可以进行变现的一个很好的渠道。”\n\n对比2月份港股上市的“短视频第一股”快手，其总市值已经破万亿港元，并带动了美股荔枝、哔哩哔哩、欢聚时代等相关概念股走高。\n携YY直播即将登陆港股的百度，也势必将更获投资市场认可。同时YY直播的并入，也会有利于提升百度用户粘性、提高ARPU值，带来如李彦宏所说的相关业务之间的彼此增益。\n从百度加码直播、收购YY直播，到微信加大视频号投入，传统流量巨头正在逐步找回失地，并将竞争范围扩大至内容到消费的全域范围内。加入直播业务之后，百度正在拓宽平台对用户的服务体验和对客户的商业价值，这也会为百度多元化的变现路径提供新的通道。\n在重塑百度移动生态中，打通账号体系也是必不可少的一个重点。过去，百度各个产品线，缺少互相引流的一大原因就在于百度没有一条线把这些产品穿起来，即缺一个完善的账户体系。\n现在，通过百家号、小程序、托管页和百度网盘等产品，百度正在重建账号体系。\n而增速迅猛的百度智能云，则在百度扩张产品功能和寻求用户增长之时，起到了一定的降本促效作用。\n2018-2020年，百度核心业务的云服务收入分别为30亿元、64亿元、92亿元，同比增速分别为112%、44%。\nIDC《中国人工智能云服务市场研究报告(2020H1)》报告数据中，百度智能云以27.5%的市场份额，位居中国AI公有云第一，连续三次夺冠。放大到整个公有云市场，百度智能云也是仅次于阿里云、腾讯云和华为云的TO4。\n灼识咨询报告显示，中国公有云服务行业市场规模预期将增至2025年的5771亿元，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为37.2%。而百度所在的智能云解决方案供应商的潜在市场，也有望于2025年达到1137亿元。\n行业前景广阔之外，云服务市场已经出现了首家盈利厂商——阿里云，其2020 Q4营收161亿元，经调整净利润2400万元。尽管数额不大，但这也侧面反映出云服务市场的需求增长和行业爆发的来临。\n国内某一线云服务厂商高管曾告诉字母榜，未来不管有多少厂商投资芯片，云服务竞争拼的“一定是短板战略，而非长板。哪个不行就没人选你，客户最终买的是一个服务。你哪个东西不行，你就麻烦了。”\n基于此，他预测，未来的公有云市场集中度，一定会越来越高，且越来越多的企业将长于云，而具备全栈全场景AI能力的云服务商也将更有竞争力。\n该高管的言外之意是，未来的云服务将是一场巨头的游戏。这对百度们来说，反而是一件好事。\n作为百度核心AI技术引擎的百度大脑，就得益于其多年运用AI对互联网图文、视频等各种形式内容进行分类、理解及智能化处理的经验。\n灼识咨询在报告中将百度居于中国AI的领导地位，列了以下几个方面：\n‧ 拥有中国最多的AI专利数量以及AI专利申请数量，分别为2682件和9364件；\n‧ 按累计拉取请求计，深度学习框架飞桨居中国深度学习框架榜首，全球排名第二，仅次于Facebook Pytorch；\n‧ 按开发者数目计，百度开放式AI平台拥有超过265万名开发者，是中国最大的开放式AI平台；\n由此，百度成为迄今唯一已开发全栈AI能力（从芯片设计到深度学习框架及应用层面）的中国公司。\n接下来，百度智能云唯一需要做的，可能就是持续扩展更多用户和签约客户，坚定投入，拿下更多智慧城市和智能交通订单，努力成为“微软第二”。\n微软2014年确定“移动为先、云为先”战略后的第五个年头，其智能云业务就已经在2019财年四季财报中，达到114亿美元营收，同比增长19%，且首次成为营收最大的业务板块，超越了包含微软起家的Windows业务的更多个人计算业务板块的113亿美元。\n萨提亚·纳德拉也凭此业绩，让微软坐上了当时的全球市值最高王座。（2019年7月19日，微软市值1.05万亿美元，第二名苹果市值9463亿美元）\n过去一年里，百度股价实现了一次U型反弹，为此公司董事会还特意准备了一份额外惊喜，向部分员工发放了“U奖金”。\nU型线的后半段，一个低点是2020 年 6 月，百度市值仅有375.5亿美元；一个高点是2021 年 2 月 ，百度市值突破千亿美元大关。\n8个月时间里，百度的基本面其实没有发生任何变化，但股价却在2020年第三季度财报之后持续走高。这其中既有投资市场对百度认知的纠偏——逐步从只是一家互联网营销公司，转向认可百度在AI领域的潜在价值，也有对越来越成熟的商业化落地场景的期待。\n以AI第三次浪潮为例，其中崛起的云服务、智能电动汽车、AI芯片，都在逐步走出实验室创新阶段，探寻到各自的早期用户。\n科技界有一个著名的“跨越鸿沟”理论，恰恰能说明这一现象。一款高科技产品/创新服务的早期市场和主流市场之间存在着一条巨大的“鸿沟”，能否顺利跨越鸿沟并进入主流市场，成功赢得实用主义者的支持，就决定着这款产品/服务的成败。\n\n现在，以新能源汽车为代表的百度AI技术，正在迎来跨越鸿沟的规模商业化前夜，与AI相关的落地场景，也开始进入收获期。\n中国整体AI投入也在催发行业更快成熟。相关数据显示，中国AI公司融资额已位居全球之首。自2015年起，中国AI相关的投资就已超越美国，2019年更是达到467.6亿美元，与之相比，美国则为386.5亿美元。\n这将是百度在三天后的港股市场上赢得投资者信任的最大底气，也将成为百度冲进万亿港元门槛的最强助力。\n但能否长久留在万亿俱乐部，并实现万亿之上的新目标，考验百度的可能是AI改变每一个普通人生活的速度和能力。\n就像萨提亚在《刷新》一书中期望微软能成为的那样，“让每个人和每个组织都能获得强大的技术，即技术的全民化”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317363371,"gmtCreate":1612418735193,"gmtModify":1703761561369,"author":{"id":"3495347576682294","authorId":"3495347576682294","name":"zht612071","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129532a24906e6cab2c9e9c1f21e5fda","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈，去年中了一手思摩尔，今年中了一手快手[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"哈哈，去年中了一手思摩尔，今年中了一手快手[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"哈哈，去年中了一手思摩尔，今年中了一手快手[开心] 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