萝卜小飞侠的个人主页 - 老虎社区

萝卜小飞侠

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IP属地：湖北

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萝卜小飞侠

2023-04-12

普通人该怎么参与？

抱歉，原内容已删除

萝卜小飞侠

2021-01-25

机狗一出来唱多，股价杀跌！机狗永远是条恶狗

中金：重申看好思摩尔国际(06969)发展前景与强者愈强趋势目标价上调23%至93.8港元

萝卜小飞侠

2020-09-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$465的价格在分时走势图上怎么看不出来？这是什么神奇的存在？$老虎证券(TIGR)$

萝卜小飞侠

2020-09-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$为什么要在推特上故弄玄虚地卖关子坑人？好好的造你的车不行么

萝卜小飞侠

2020-09-17

蔚来继续加仓

萝卜小飞侠

2020-09-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$今天挂465的价格，能上车吗？

萝卜小飞侠

2020-09-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$第一次买特斯拉，留个纪念

萝卜小飞侠

2020-08-20

$蔚来(NIO)$今天13.5能否上车？

萝卜小飞侠

2020-08-20

有准备打新农夫山泉的没？

萝卜小飞侠

2020-08-19

$蔚来(NIO)$清仓了[生气] 没劲

萝卜小飞侠

2020-08-08

$蔚来(NIO)$最近不太平，13.61卖完先空仓了

萝卜小飞侠

2020-08-04

$恒顺醋业(600305)$买了这口醋！希望它把这百年老字号的底蕴发扬光大

萝卜小飞侠

2020-08-03

$美团点评-W(03690)$美团为什么在集合竞价的时候价格183块打压5个点，现在又200块？是庄家故意通过集合竞价低价位吸筹吗？太流氓了吧

萝卜小飞侠

2020-07-21

$蔚来(NIO)$刚上车，希望多多加电

萝卜小飞侠

2020-07-07

$中芯国际(00981)$为什么暴跌？IPO造势煽动情绪就是为了**的割韭菜吗？

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>今天13.5能否上车？","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$今天13.5能否上车？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970779537","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651006535,"gmtCreate":1681309377427,"gmtModify":1681309379141,"author":{"id":"3494565185256848","authorId":"3494565185256848","name":"萝卜小飞侠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494565185256848","authorIdStr":"3494565185256848"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"普通人该怎么参与？","listText":"普通人该怎么参与？","text":"普通人该怎么参与？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651006535","repostId":"1147577551","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147577551","pubTimestamp":1681300922,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147577551?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-12 20:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"手握8857亿现金！巴菲特却在借钱抄底","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147577551","media":"ETF进化论","summary":"时隔11年，93岁的巴菲特再度访问日本。股神在东京接受几大媒体专访，被问及此次日本之行的目的时，巴菲特回答说：“日本是我们继美国之后的最大投资国，因为这里有值得信赖的经营团队，还有我们能够理解的商业机","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>时隔11年，93岁的巴菲特再度访问日本。</p><p>股神在东京接受几大媒体专访，被问及此次日本之行的目的时，巴菲特回答说：“日本是我们继美国之后的最大投资国，因为这里有值得信赖的经营团队，还有我们能够理解的商业机会。”</p><p><strong>1、巴菲特“借钱”抄底？</strong></p><p><strong>股神巴菲特近两年频繁抄底日本，伯克希尔已成为最大的海外日元债务发行人之一。</strong></p><p>伯克希尔首次发行日元债券是在2019年，当时发债规模达4300亿日元。2020年，伯克希尔发行了1955亿日元的债券。最近一次日元债券发行是在2022年12月，发行规模为1150亿日元。</p><p>截至2022年，伯克希尔账面上的日元计价票据和借贷规模增至超78亿美元。<strong>近期，巴菲特又聘请了银行安排新的日元债发行。</strong></p><p>2023年4月5日，伯克希尔向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了由美银证券和日本瑞穗证券承销发行该公司日元债券的注册申请。</p><p>伯克希尔在申请文件中称，预计此次发行净收益将用于一般公司用途，包括为2023年优先票据再融资。瑞穗证券透露，这笔交易预计将在不久的将来进行，但要视市场情况而定。</p><p>巴菲特向来谨慎，对现金储备非常重视。截至2022年末，伯克希尔的现金储备达到了1286亿美元，相当于8857亿人民币。<strong>股神并不缺钱，为何要借钱？</strong></p><p><strong>当前，日本是全球仅存的利率“洼地”。</strong>1年期、2年期、3年期国债收益率均为负数，10年期国债收益率0.463%，是全球融资成本最低的国家之一。<strong><br/></strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01437d9dbc2b99c0012761fcb05a50dd\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p><p>此外，伯克希尔发行日元债，除了有低成本融资的作用外，还能对冲汇率波动的风险。通过发行日元债，伯克希尔不需要把账上的美元换成日元后，再去投资日元资产了，省去跨境资本流动的麻烦，也避免了货币敞口的增加。</p><p><strong>除了在日本市场连续发债借钱外，巴菲特还在大手笔押注五大日本商事。</strong></p><p><strong>2、巴菲特大手笔押注五大日本商事</strong></p><p>2020年8月，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔宣布斥资约640亿日元（约6亿美元）收购日本5大商社伊藤忠、丸红、三菱商事、三井物产和住友商事各超5%的股份。</p><p>2022年11月，伯克希尔提交给监管机构的文件显示已将其在日本五大商事的持股比例分别提高超1%，至6%以上：三菱商事的持股比例从5.04%增至6.59%，三井物产的持股比例从5.03%增至6.62%，伊藤忠商事的持股比例由5.02%增至6.21%，丸红株式会社的持股比例由5.06%增至6.75%，住友商事的持股比例5.04%增至6.57%。</p><p><strong>巴菲特在最近访问日本时透露，他已将在日本五大商事的持股增至7.4%，并表示这是伯克希尔在美国以外的最大投资。股神为何偏爱日本商社？</strong></p><p>在接受日本经济新闻采访时，巴菲特表示日本商事以其全球贸易网络、多元化业务和稳定的盈利能力而著称，这些公司在全球市场中具有竞争力，而且事业规模巨大，内容十分清晰易懂，并有很好的业绩。与各国又有许多的合资企业，十分精通各国的事情。</p><p>日本综合商事早期主要盈利模式以贸易功能为主，辅以增值服务，即为产业链上下游贸易伙伴提供物流、金融、信息、渠道、风险管理等服务。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc65dca748bd63beaae11e709296dc33\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"602\"/></p><p>经过多年发展和深耕，日本的综合商事当前业务范围超出人们的想象，从方便面到航天飞机，只要是人们需要的商品，商社都可以覆盖。比如我们熟悉的便利店，都跟商事有关系，三井是7-11重要股东，三菱控股罗森，伊藤忠控股全家。</p><p><strong>日本商事属于贸易公司与工业品经销商，控制着日本大部分的进出口业务，包括能源、金属、食品和各种纺织商品。</strong>三井物产中国区负责人曾说过一句话：“问我们做什么，不如问我们不做什么。我们不做毒品、武器弹药这些违法的事情，但是其他的只要有机会，我们都可以做。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b6fcfef4dba8746621c680632429c4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"582\"/></p><p>综合商事在从中介业务基础上，参与上游原材料采购，中游生产制造到下游零售流通的全过程，同时日本商社通过产业投资使得产业链上下游的参与者更加紧密的绑定在一起，由此原材料采购中的规模经济优势和物流系统共享使得成本降低成为可能，更能精确得到客户的反馈，从而可以灵活调整价格、生产量以及库存，实现产业链的降本增效，价值链的延伸拓宽。</p><p>日本商事通过价值链的拓展，进一步扩张市场规模和收益规模、提高商品流通效率、业务开展速度，优化商业模式，从而使得产业链整体效率得到提高，最终实现局部最优到全局最优，由买卖双方的零和博弈到产业链上下游共同收益的最大化。</p><p><strong>日本综合商事当前的本质是贸易+产业投行，以商流链接为驱动，采用广泛深入的“股权换商权”实现跨行业全产业链运营。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e1366bab129c1a8760791d7b722f1d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p><p><strong>3、股神正在考虑加码投资日本股市</strong></p><p>三菱商事、伊藤忠商事、三井物产等为代表的综合商社在日本商品流通领域占据着主导地位，这五家商事均为千亿人民币市值体量的头部公司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f17fcc6f3655aa68c3f6a1b1a746709d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\"/></p><p>(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）</p><p>五家商事近两年大部分收入来自能源业务，巴菲特出手后，丸红股价涨超两倍，三井物产、三菱商事股价翻倍，伊滕忠商事和住友商事股价接近翻倍。相比之下，日经225指数涨幅不到30%。</p><p>在大宗商品价格周期不同阶段，巴菲特不断加码日本综合商事，不仅仅是投资通胀、投资大宗商品本身，而是投资日本综合商社深度融入各行业上下游各环节、全产业链运营的商业模式。</p><p>巴菲特直言日本各大商事的投资回报超过了我们的预期，我感到非常自豪，并表示对这些日本贸易公司的投资是长期的，持股比例可能上升至9.9%。</p><p><strong>对日本商事的投资，也符合巴菲特的投资偏好——投资一个低估、盈利持续、分红稳定，相对长期不变的生意。</strong></p><p>2011年8月首次访问日本，视察了旗下企业出资的超硬工具制造商泰珂洛，此次股神将访问他投资的日本商社和泰珂洛。</p><p><strong>巴菲特表示正在考虑加码投资日股，称虽然目前只持有5大商事的股票，但接下来的投资对象一直在脑海中，取决于价格。</strong></p><p>A股市场目前有5只跟踪日本市场的ETF，规模都不大，最大的日经ETF最新规模0.92亿。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9110274688bc291b5b4cadfe3084d2\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"481\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1653219549182","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>手握8857亿现金！巴菲特却在借钱抄底</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n手握8857亿现金！巴菲特却在借钱抄底\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-12 20:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/doLwEGGU90ESErkHriYxNA><strong>ETF进化论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>时隔11年，93岁的巴菲特再度访问日本。股神在东京接受几大媒体专访，被问及此次日本之行的目的时，巴菲特回答说：“日本是我们继美国之后的最大投资国，因为这里有值得信赖的经营团队，还有我们能够理解的商业机会。”1、巴菲特“借钱”抄底？股神巴菲特近两年频繁抄底日本，伯克希尔已成为最大的海外日元债务发行人之一。伯克希尔首次发行日元债券是在2019年，当时发债规模达4300亿日元。2020年，伯克希尔发行了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/doLwEGGU90ESErkHriYxNA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/doLwEGGU90ESErkHriYxNA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147577551","content_text":"时隔11年，93岁的巴菲特再度访问日本。股神在东京接受几大媒体专访，被问及此次日本之行的目的时，巴菲特回答说：“日本是我们继美国之后的最大投资国，因为这里有值得信赖的经营团队，还有我们能够理解的商业机会。”1、巴菲特“借钱”抄底？股神巴菲特近两年频繁抄底日本，伯克希尔已成为最大的海外日元债务发行人之一。伯克希尔首次发行日元债券是在2019年，当时发债规模达4300亿日元。2020年，伯克希尔发行了1955亿日元的债券。最近一次日元债券发行是在2022年12月，发行规模为1150亿日元。截至2022年，伯克希尔账面上的日元计价票据和借贷规模增至超78亿美元。近期，巴菲特又聘请了银行安排新的日元债发行。2023年4月5日，伯克希尔向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了由美银证券和日本瑞穗证券承销发行该公司日元债券的注册申请。伯克希尔在申请文件中称，预计此次发行净收益将用于一般公司用途，包括为2023年优先票据再融资。瑞穗证券透露，这笔交易预计将在不久的将来进行，但要视市场情况而定。巴菲特向来谨慎，对现金储备非常重视。截至2022年末，伯克希尔的现金储备达到了1286亿美元，相当于8857亿人民币。股神并不缺钱，为何要借钱？当前，日本是全球仅存的利率“洼地”。1年期、2年期、3年期国债收益率均为负数，10年期国债收益率0.463%，是全球融资成本最低的国家之一。此外，伯克希尔发行日元债，除了有低成本融资的作用外，还能对冲汇率波动的风险。通过发行日元债，伯克希尔不需要把账上的美元换成日元后，再去投资日元资产了，省去跨境资本流动的麻烦，也避免了货币敞口的增加。除了在日本市场连续发债借钱外，巴菲特还在大手笔押注五大日本商事。2、巴菲特大手笔押注五大日本商事2020年8月，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔宣布斥资约640亿日元（约6亿美元）收购日本5大商社伊藤忠、丸红、三菱商事、三井物产和住友商事各超5%的股份。2022年11月，伯克希尔提交给监管机构的文件显示已将其在日本五大商事的持股比例分别提高超1%，至6%以上：三菱商事的持股比例从5.04%增至6.59%，三井物产的持股比例从5.03%增至6.62%，伊藤忠商事的持股比例由5.02%增至6.21%，丸红株式会社的持股比例由5.06%增至6.75%，住友商事的持股比例5.04%增至6.57%。巴菲特在最近访问日本时透露，他已将在日本五大商事的持股增至7.4%，并表示这是伯克希尔在美国以外的最大投资。股神为何偏爱日本商社？在接受日本经济新闻采访时，巴菲特表示日本商事以其全球贸易网络、多元化业务和稳定的盈利能力而著称，这些公司在全球市场中具有竞争力，而且事业规模巨大，内容十分清晰易懂，并有很好的业绩。与各国又有许多的合资企业，十分精通各国的事情。日本综合商事早期主要盈利模式以贸易功能为主，辅以增值服务，即为产业链上下游贸易伙伴提供物流、金融、信息、渠道、风险管理等服务。经过多年发展和深耕，日本的综合商事当前业务范围超出人们的想象，从方便面到航天飞机，只要是人们需要的商品，商社都可以覆盖。比如我们熟悉的便利店，都跟商事有关系，三井是7-11重要股东，三菱控股罗森，伊藤忠控股全家。日本商事属于贸易公司与工业品经销商，控制着日本大部分的进出口业务，包括能源、金属、食品和各种纺织商品。三井物产中国区负责人曾说过一句话：“问我们做什么，不如问我们不做什么。我们不做毒品、武器弹药这些违法的事情，但是其他的只要有机会，我们都可以做。”综合商事在从中介业务基础上，参与上游原材料采购，中游生产制造到下游零售流通的全过程，同时日本商社通过产业投资使得产业链上下游的参与者更加紧密的绑定在一起，由此原材料采购中的规模经济优势和物流系统共享使得成本降低成为可能，更能精确得到客户的反馈，从而可以灵活调整价格、生产量以及库存，实现产业链的降本增效，价值链的延伸拓宽。日本商事通过价值链的拓展，进一步扩张市场规模和收益规模、提高商品流通效率、业务开展速度，优化商业模式，从而使得产业链整体效率得到提高，最终实现局部最优到全局最优，由买卖双方的零和博弈到产业链上下游共同收益的最大化。日本综合商事当前的本质是贸易+产业投行，以商流链接为驱动，采用广泛深入的“股权换商权”实现跨行业全产业链运营。3、股神正在考虑加码投资日本股市三菱商事、伊藤忠商事、三井物产等为代表的综合商社在日本商品流通领域占据着主导地位，这五家商事均为千亿人民币市值体量的头部公司。(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）五家商事近两年大部分收入来自能源业务，巴菲特出手后，丸红股价涨超两倍，三井物产、三菱商事股价翻倍，伊滕忠商事和住友商事股价接近翻倍。相比之下，日经225指数涨幅不到30%。在大宗商品价格周期不同阶段，巴菲特不断加码日本综合商事，不仅仅是投资通胀、投资大宗商品本身，而是投资日本综合商社深度融入各行业上下游各环节、全产业链运营的商业模式。巴菲特直言日本各大商事的投资回报超过了我们的预期，我感到非常自豪，并表示对这些日本贸易公司的投资是长期的，持股比例可能上升至9.9%。对日本商事的投资，也符合巴菲特的投资偏好——投资一个低估、盈利持续、分红稳定，相对长期不变的生意。2011年8月首次访问日本，视察了旗下企业出资的超硬工具制造商泰珂洛，此次股神将访问他投资的日本商社和泰珂洛。巴菲特表示正在考虑加码投资日股，称虽然目前只持有5大商事的股票，但接下来的投资对象一直在脑海中，取决于价格。A股市场目前有5只跟踪日本市场的ETF，规模都不大，最大的日经ETF最新规模0.92亿。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319168767,"gmtCreate":1611553630859,"gmtModify":1703750854190,"author":{"id":"3494565185256848","authorId":"3494565185256848","name":"萝卜小飞侠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494565185256848","authorIdStr":"3494565185256848"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"机狗一出来唱多，股价杀跌！机狗永远是条恶狗","listText":"机狗一出来唱多，股价杀跌！机狗永远是条恶狗","text":"机狗一出来唱多，股价杀跌！机狗永远是条恶狗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319168767","repostId":"2105846508","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972575383,"gmtCreate":1600301704942,"gmtModify":1703821086645,"author":{"id":"3494565185256848","authorId":"3494565185256848","name":"萝卜小飞侠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494565185256848","authorIdStr":"3494565185256848"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"蔚来继续加仓","listText":"蔚来继续加仓","text":"蔚来继续加仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972575383","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970779825,"gmtCreate":1597922620767,"gmtModify":1704217251573,"author":{"id":"3494565185256848","authorId":"3494565185256848","name":"萝卜小飞侠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494565185256848","authorIdStr":"3494565185256848"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有准备打新农夫山泉的没？","listText":"有准备打新农夫山泉的没？","text":"有准备打新农夫山泉的没？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970779825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945894892,"gmtCreat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