奶牛奶牛的个人主页 - 老虎社区

奶牛奶牛

奶牛奶牛

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IP属地：浙江

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2021-04-06

除了牛批，没话说

马斯克计划在德州建一座新城市，并鼓励朋友搬到那里

2021-03-29

$小米集团-W(01810)$雷总开发布会咯，这不先涨10个点？

2020-09-10

$百度(BIDU)$腾讯要布局搜索业务了

2020-09-10

$苹果(AAPL)$美股就是跌着玩的希望a股弟弟们不要当真，玩笑开过了赶紧卡吧[喷血]

2020-09-07

漏到肚脐眼了还没勾

@武器:$农夫山泉(09633)$兄弟们暗盘现在涨到多少了

2020-08-27

$小米集团-W(01810)$没仓，恭喜小米了，我12卖的，虽然亏了，还是恭喜雷总

2020-08-07

$蔚来(NIO)$a股调控一下，美股就大跌（手动狗头）

2020-08-04

干得漂亮

华为阿里员工跳槽微软受抵制，被要求停止无意义加班

2020-07-15

什么时间上市？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-07-13

$理想汽车(LI)$大哥大嫂们如何打新呢

2020-07-09

$星宇控股(02346)$仙股会涨吗

2020-05-12

黑市上的主流币种，黑市份额有多大，币就有多贵

多空一起爆！比特币在被谁操纵？

2020-05-08

$美团点评-W(03690)$美团价格也太高了，现阶段平台费也已经收的很高，怨声载道了，个人以为更高的营收是个问题。

2020-04-22

$如涵控股(RUHN)$今年瓜真多，吃瓜吃瓜

2020-04-17

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$明晚起飞

2020-04-14

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$下周回国

2020-04-06

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$来了来了

2020-04-03

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$开始了开始了，开始表演

2020-04-02

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$兄弟们，逃得出来吗

2020-04-02

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$浑水牛皮，愚人节快乐

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href=\"http://www.techweb.com.cn/world/2021-04-06/2833603.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb163c34f9a56cb2303a711b096678d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.techweb.com.cn/world/2021-04-06/2833603.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139954401","content_text":"作者：小狐狸\n据国外媒体报道，今年3月份，外媒报道称，特斯拉首席执行官（CEO）埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）计划在德克萨斯州建造一座名为Starbase的城市。\n\n本周，马斯克在推特上表示：“请考虑搬到位于德州博卡奇卡村的Starbase市或更大的布朗斯维尔和南帕德雷地区，并鼓励朋友们这样做！SpaceX对各类工程师、技术人员、建筑商和基本支持人员的需求正在迅速增长。”\n去年12月份，马斯克从加州搬到了德州。他表示，这样做的原因是为了能够密切关注特斯拉在德州奥斯汀新建的超级工厂，以及他旗下美国太空探索技术公司SpaceX的星际飞船项目。\n目前，特斯拉正在德州奥斯汀新建一座超级工厂，该工厂位于特拉维斯县东南部，耗资11亿美元，目前建设进展迅速，计划最早今年开始生产汽车。特斯拉表示，计划在该工厂生产其首款电动皮卡Cybertruck、Semi电动半挂卡车、Model 3以及Model 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bcdd40747dbacf61bd55b0f5f96a16","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109543834","content_text":"这是一次两种职场文化的交锋。一群从华为和阿里巴巴跳槽到微软的员工，近日遭到了微软的内部抵制。这是微软苏州某团队的一次自发行为。据他们表示，由于华为和阿里来的员工时常“比赛加班”，甚至“半夜在工作群互发消息”，给团队带来了国内互联网企业的加班文化，破坏规则，恶性竞争。他们因此在工作之余开发了Hackathon项目，可以每晚检测部门内部人员晚上还在加班并提出警告。此番争执，正是国内互联网企业被诟病已久的“996”（每日9时上班，晚上9时下班，一周工作6天）文化与以外企为代表的“工作生活平衡”文化的一次显性交锋。阿里和华为，两家国内巨头企业，皆以全员盛行加班著称。据阿里的员工向界面新闻表示，在公司整个氛围影响下，几乎所有人都是自愿加班，到下班时间，根本没有人走。“第一波加班的通常会在晚上8点左右离开，这是下班最早的一群人。还有不少人会坚持到凌晨，甚至半夜两三点。”他说。华为的加班风气则更是由来已久，在华为心声社区，还有知乎、脉脉等程序员较多的网络社区，华为员工吐槽公司加班，甚至因为加班严重选择离职的案例比比皆是。与之形成对照的是，微软中国一直践行着“工作生活平衡”的职场信条。一位新入职微软的员工曾在虎扑上戏谑地写道，“来微软工作三周了，我想说，在这样的公司其实没有大家想象的那么轻松，这里是大家想象不到的轻松。”这一事件在网上持续发酵，引发了不小的舆论风波。有不少网友对此次抵制表达了附议，认为这种行为拖累了原本健康的职业风气，并不是为了工作本身而加班，而是形式主义的“找班加”。“为什么说是阿里行为？并不单指这些人是从阿里过来的，国外的互联网公司也不缺乏拼命的人。自己一个人默默奋斗就行了，别在工作时间外骚扰同事……最近微软来了很多这些人，把氛围搞得很差，特别是那些工资低的加班狂，恶意拉低了市场价。”有些网友提议称，这些加班狂可以下班后将工作带回家做，“在公司呆着不走，还在休息时间在工作群圈这个圈那个，除了带坏风气还能干嘛。”但另一方面，不可忽视的是，企业作为逐利机构，处于两种完全不同发展阶段的公司，加班带来的收益大相径庭，这也在很大程度上影响了它们各自的职业文化选择。作为行业技术垄断性巨擘的微软，各项机制、岗位设置均已成熟，员工按部就班，足以维系企业的正常运转和盈利。而作为国内处于上升期的互联网企业，华为和阿里则更为崇尚“狼性机制”，产品高速迭代的背景下，策略无外乎是以最小的人力成本推动最大化的工作产出。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941343258,"gmtCreate":1594813442374,"gmtModify":1704206930975,"author":{"id":"3494368402127147","authorId":"3494368402127147","name":"奶牛奶牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f58953de7c9b2aa74f657baa45efc2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么时间上市？","listText":"什么时间上市？","text":"什么时间上市？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941343258","repostId":"2051815802","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943646414,"gmtCreate":1594627851738,"gmtModify":1704205985155,"author":{"id":"3494368402127147","authorId":"3494368402127147","name":"奶牛奶牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f58953de7c9b2aa74f657baa45efc2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02346\">$星宇控股(02346)$</a>仙股会涨吗","text":"$星宇控股(02346)$仙股会涨吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949216657","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950351765,"gmtCreate":1589260072257,"gmtModify":1704179648459,"author":{"id":"3494368402127147","authorId":"3494368402127147","name":"奶牛奶牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f58953de7c9b2aa74f657baa45efc2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"黑市上的主流币种，黑市份额有多大，币就有多贵","listText":"黑市上的主流币种，黑市份额有多大，币就有多贵","text":"黑市上的主流币种，黑市份额有多大，币就有多贵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950351765","repostId":"2034686649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2034686649","pubTimestamp":1589242126,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2034686649?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-12 08:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"多空一起爆！比特币在被谁操纵？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2034686649","media":"金十数据","summary":"5月12日，比特币将“分叉”，出块奖励将减半至6.25个。\n\n对于加密货币的局外人来说，这个消息不过是个每隔一段时间就会出现的“新奇事件”。但对于加密货币的局内人来说，减半可能会产生各种各样不可估量的","content":"<blockquote>\n 5月12日，比特币将“分叉”，出块奖励将减半至6.25个。\n</blockquote>\n<p>对于加密货币的局外人来说，这个消息不过是个每隔一段时间就会出现的“新奇事件”。但对于加密货币的局内人来说，减半可能会产生各种各样不可估量的后果。</p>\n<p>以刚刚过去的周末为例，比特币就上演了“暴力拉涨后高空跳水，空头爆完多头爆”的刺激戏码。针对这波异动发生的原因，主流分析认为，这是减半利好被提前兑现，巨鲸出逃引发连环抛售所致。</p>\n<p>有趣的是，市场上又悄悄产生了一种新的说法，或者说一种质疑——比特币这波“高空跳水”真的是意外？今天我们也来凑凑热闹，看一看哪种说法更符合你的猜测。</p>\n<p>01数百亿资金集体暴动，这两轮爆仓谁来背锅？</p>\n<p>在开始讲解这个惊险刺激的故事之前，我们先来补充一点关于“比特币”的背景知识。</p>\n<p>众所周知，所有的比特币最初都是来源于区块的出块奖励，所以挖矿的过程实际上也是比特币发行的过程。而很多圈外人不太清楚的是，根据规定，挖到新区块的矿工除了获得该区块中交易的手续费之外，还能获得一份出块奖励。</p>\n<p>这个区块奖励最开始设定的是50个币，在每挖出210000个区块后，出块奖励将会减半。以此来计算，首次比特币减半发生在2012年11月底，而下一场减半将在5月12日发生，届时每个区块的奖励将将从12.5枚降低到6.25枚。</p>\n<p>因此，减半不仅意味着挖矿的回报大幅下降，也意味着供应减少，比特币将变得更加稀缺，比特币行情往往能得到提振。在减半日前后，比特币交易量将大增，价格波动性也飙涨。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e538c959f0e561864c5c5cd57aee75\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>当然，这一次也不例外。</span></p>\n<p>▶&nbsp;24小时内，比特币市值猛增350亿美元！</p>\n<p>5月8日早间8：00左右，比特币价格突飞猛涨，突破10000美元/枚，最高触及10074美元/枚， 这也是自2月24日以来的首次。在24小时内，加密货币的市值猛增了350亿美元，一举成为当时市场最热议的话题，Google搜索量增长了5000%以上。</p>\n<p>有分析表示，早在4月30日，比特币就涨势初现。从3月中始算的两个月的时间内，比特币价格已经上涨160%。在这场拉涨中，空头损失惨重。</p>\n<p>根据合约帝数据统计，截至8日中午12点的24小时内，超过13461人爆仓，涉及超2.3亿美元。</p>\n<p>▶ 狂赚变暴亏！比特币高台跳水近1000美元</p>\n<p>然而，好景不长，噩耗来得更加迅猛。</p>\n<p>5月10日早上，比特币从9559美元/枚的高位跳水，迅速下破9000美元大关，并在25分钟内暴跌逾14%。</p>\n<p>虚拟货币数据网站币coin的数据显示，截至5月10日晚上10：30的24小时内，市场上共有4.2万人爆仓，爆仓的金额达到8.34亿美元，折合人民币将近60亿。一家著名的交易所甚至因此一度陷入瘫痪。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9f00de8a6dbc880b5b8e8e3211fcdb\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"819\"></p>\n<p>02都是巨鲸惹的祸？踩踏事故只是意外</p>\n<p>对于这场“暴动”，市场上的主流分析都将其当作是正常的价格波动。</p>\n<p>对于4月30日~5月8日的那波拉涨，分析表示，随着比特币区块奖励减半日的临近，无论是“矿工”，还是对冲基金等资本大头都向“新币”发起最后的冲刺，一是为了享受减半日前最后的“红利”，二是为了进场抄底，静候减半日带来的利好发酵。</p>\n<p>上述观点其实并不难理解，以以往两次“减半行情”为参考，比特币的价值往往都能得到提振。在2012年、2016年的减半事件中，比特币价格分别上涨了80倍和20倍。</p>\n<p>在这种背景下，周末那波暴跌行情就显得格外“怪异”了。</p>\n<p>对于比特币在周末的暴跌，一些分析师表示，这是因为比特币减半预期被提前兑现。</p>\n<p>期货日报指出，在第三次减半行情来临之前，比特币已经在两个月内出现了接近160%的涨幅。对于前期布局的投资者，减半正式实行之时便是利好预期兑现之时，在前期涨幅足够的情况下，甚至可以提前抛售。</p>\n<p>一些分析师甚至用有效市场假说来支持他们对比特币价格的预期。这些分析师认为，目前比特币已经提前消化了一半利好，减半日后的上涨行情或暂缓。著名的比特币巨鲸Joe007甚至直言，比特币的价格会在减半日后崩溃。</p>\n<p>03真的没有猫腻？这个市场有“前科”</p>\n<p>对于别的资产，市场或许能安心地接受上述说法。但是，对于比特币，对于这个操纵案“前科累累”的加密货币市场，没有谁敢断定其中一定没有猫腻。</p>\n<p>比特币市场的这一缺陷并不是什么新发现，其中最著名的一个案例发生在2017年末。</p>\n<p>在当时，比特币飙升至近2万美元的历史高点，随后研究显示，虚拟货币交易平台Bitfinex的部分用户通过“极端”的套索流动来操纵市场对比特币的需求。研究显示，在当时比特币上涨的时刻中，有一半都与Tether货币USDT的套利操纵存在关联。</p>\n<p>不仅如此，2019年初，比特币资产管理公司Bitwise为SEC创建的一份报告还显示，95%的比特币现货交易是虚假的。调查发现，比特币日均交易量约为60亿美元，但其中只有2.73亿美元是合法的。这个结论也佐证了为何受到监管的比特币期货价格会更稳定。</p>\n<p>当然，任何关于操纵的说法都很容易被归结成“阴谋论”，也有数据证明了今年以来矿工的活跃度不同寻常。</p>\n<p>截至上周五，该交易所比特币期货未平仓头寸创下近5亿美元的历史新高，其中近50%未平仓持仓量的增长来自其他交易和规模较小的不可报告账户，这表明流入该产品的不只是基金等大资本。</p>\n<p>但值得注意的是，在整个4月，Binance，Huobi，OKEx和BitMEX的交易额均超过500亿美元。这表明尽管今年矿工活跃度上升，但他们仍然是该领域中较小的参与者。</p>\n<p>Two Prime的联合创始人Marc Fleury博士直言，许多人相信有效市场理论，该理论本质上是说，有关减半的所有信息都应该已经反映在价格中。但是，有效市场的理论可能并不适用于加密市场。Fleury表示，</p>\n<p>加密市场是出了名的非理性、不透明，而且容易被操纵。虽然矿工们也能推动价格上涨，但是只有少数大公司（包括大型矿商）拥有不对称的巨大影响力。</p>\n<p>CryptoQuant公司的首席信息官杨梅森也表示，如果比特币交易员希望规避交易风险，最重要的事情是监控鲸鱼和矿商是否在套现，而不是根据经验来预期短期的价格变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a6bcb256bb5dc1819850ea86526024\" tg-width=\"1894\" tg-height=\"810\"></p>\n<p>无论“减半规则”造成了多少风波，不少人仍坚持认为，该规定就是比特币设计的精髓，也是比特币稀缺性溢价的集中体现。对此，中本聪也曾经说过：</p>\n<p>“在几十年之后，当区块奖励几乎消失，交易手续费将成为节点的主要收入来源。因此，我非常确信，在 20 年之后，链上交易量要么非常巨大，要么一无所有。”</p>\n<p>那么，你对这一规则又有什么看法？你觉得在一个“不透明的市场”交易的风险有多大呢？</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>多空一起爆！比特币在被谁操纵？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n多空一起爆！比特币在被谁操纵？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-12 08:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-05-12/doc-iircuyvi2568900.shtml><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月12日，比特币将“分叉”，出块奖励将减半至6.25个。\n\n对于加密货币的局外人来说，这个消息不过是个每隔一段时间就会出现的“新奇事件”。但对于加密货币的局内人来说，减半可能会产生各种各样不可估量的后果。\n以刚刚过去的周末为例，比特币就上演了“暴力拉涨后高空跳水，空头爆完多头爆”的刺激戏码。针对这波异动发生的原因，主流分析认为，这是减半利好被提前兑现，巨鲸出逃引发连环抛售所致。\n有趣的是，市场上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-05-12/doc-iircuyvi2568900.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f743d717b6a2f2140fa7df544d4c12c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-05-12/doc-iircuyvi2568900.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2034686649","content_text":"5月12日，比特币将“分叉”，出块奖励将减半至6.25个。\n\n对于加密货币的局外人来说，这个消息不过是个每隔一段时间就会出现的“新奇事件”。但对于加密货币的局内人来说，减半可能会产生各种各样不可估量的后果。\n以刚刚过去的周末为例，比特币就上演了“暴力拉涨后高空跳水，空头爆完多头爆”的刺激戏码。针对这波异动发生的原因，主流分析认为，这是减半利好被提前兑现，巨鲸出逃引发连环抛售所致。\n有趣的是，市场上又悄悄产生了一种新的说法，或者说一种质疑——比特币这波“高空跳水”真的是意外？今天我们也来凑凑热闹，看一看哪种说法更符合你的猜测。\n01数百亿资金集体暴动，这两轮爆仓谁来背锅？\n在开始讲解这个惊险刺激的故事之前，我们先来补充一点关于“比特币”的背景知识。\n众所周知，所有的比特币最初都是来源于区块的出块奖励，所以挖矿的过程实际上也是比特币发行的过程。而很多圈外人不太清楚的是，根据规定，挖到新区块的矿工除了获得该区块中交易的手续费之外，还能获得一份出块奖励。\n这个区块奖励最开始设定的是50个币，在每挖出210000个区块后，出块奖励将会减半。以此来计算，首次比特币减半发生在2012年11月底，而下一场减半将在5月12日发生，届时每个区块的奖励将将从12.5枚降低到6.25枚。\n因此，减半不仅意味着挖矿的回报大幅下降，也意味着供应减少，比特币将变得更加稀缺，比特币行情往往能得到提振。在减半日前后，比特币交易量将大增，价格波动性也飙涨。\n当然，这一次也不例外。\n▶ 24小时内，比特币市值猛增350亿美元！\n5月8日早间8：00左右，比特币价格突飞猛涨，突破10000美元/枚，最高触及10074美元/枚， 这也是自2月24日以来的首次。在24小时内，加密货币的市值猛增了350亿美元，一举成为当时市场最热议的话题，Google搜索量增长了5000%以上。\n有分析表示，早在4月30日，比特币就涨势初现。从3月中始算的两个月的时间内，比特币价格已经上涨160%。在这场拉涨中，空头损失惨重。\n根据合约帝数据统计，截至8日中午12点的24小时内，超过13461人爆仓，涉及超2.3亿美元。\n▶ 狂赚变暴亏！比特币高台跳水近1000美元\n然而，好景不长，噩耗来得更加迅猛。\n5月10日早上，比特币从9559美元/枚的高位跳水，迅速下破9000美元大关，并在25分钟内暴跌逾14%。\n虚拟货币数据网站币coin的数据显示，截至5月10日晚上10：30的24小时内，市场上共有4.2万人爆仓，爆仓的金额达到8.34亿美元，折合人民币将近60亿。一家著名的交易所甚至因此一度陷入瘫痪。\n\n02都是巨鲸惹的祸？踩踏事故只是意外\n对于这场“暴动”，市场上的主流分析都将其当作是正常的价格波动。\n对于4月30日~5月8日的那波拉涨，分析表示，随着比特币区块奖励减半日的临近，无论是“矿工”，还是对冲基金等资本大头都向“新币”发起最后的冲刺，一是为了享受减半日前最后的“红利”，二是为了进场抄底，静候减半日带来的利好发酵。\n上述观点其实并不难理解，以以往两次“减半行情”为参考，比特币的价值往往都能得到提振。在2012年、2016年的减半事件中，比特币价格分别上涨了80倍和20倍。\n在这种背景下，周末那波暴跌行情就显得格外“怪异”了。\n对于比特币在周末的暴跌，一些分析师表示，这是因为比特币减半预期被提前兑现。\n期货日报指出，在第三次减半行情来临之前，比特币已经在两个月内出现了接近160%的涨幅。对于前期布局的投资者，减半正式实行之时便是利好预期兑现之时，在前期涨幅足够的情况下，甚至可以提前抛售。\n一些分析师甚至用有效市场假说来支持他们对比特币价格的预期。这些分析师认为，目前比特币已经提前消化了一半利好，减半日后的上涨行情或暂缓。著名的比特币巨鲸Joe007甚至直言，比特币的价格会在减半日后崩溃。\n03真的没有猫腻？这个市场有“前科”\n对于别的资产，市场或许能安心地接受上述说法。但是，对于比特币，对于这个操纵案“前科累累”的加密货币市场，没有谁敢断定其中一定没有猫腻。\n比特币市场的这一缺陷并不是什么新发现，其中最著名的一个案例发生在2017年末。\n在当时，比特币飙升至近2万美元的历史高点，随后研究显示，虚拟货币交易平台Bitfinex的部分用户通过“极端”的套索流动来操纵市场对比特币的需求。研究显示，在当时比特币上涨的时刻中，有一半都与Tether货币USDT的套利操纵存在关联。\n不仅如此，2019年初，比特币资产管理公司Bitwise为SEC创建的一份报告还显示，95%的比特币现货交易是虚假的。调查发现，比特币日均交易量约为60亿美元，但其中只有2.73亿美元是合法的。这个结论也佐证了为何受到监管的比特币期货价格会更稳定。\n当然，任何关于操纵的说法都很容易被归结成“阴谋论”，也有数据证明了今年以来矿工的活跃度不同寻常。\n截至上周五，该交易所比特币期货未平仓头寸创下近5亿美元的历史新高，其中近50%未平仓持仓量的增长来自其他交易和规模较小的不可报告账户，这表明流入该产品的不只是基金等大资本。\n但值得注意的是，在整个4月，Binance，Huobi，OKEx和BitMEX的交易额均超过500亿美元。这表明尽管今年矿工活跃度上升，但他们仍然是该领域中较小的参与者。\nTwo Prime的联合创始人Marc Fleury博士直言，许多人相信有效市场理论，该理论本质上是说，有关减半的所有信息都应该已经反映在价格中。但是，有效市场的理论可能并不适用于加密市场。Fleury表示，\n加密市场是出了名的非理性、不透明，而且容易被操纵。虽然矿工们也能推动价格上涨，但是只有少数大公司（包括大型矿商）拥有不对称的巨大影响力。\nCryptoQuant公司的首席信息官杨梅森也表示，如果比特币交易员希望规避交易风险，最重要的事情是监控鲸鱼和矿商是否在套现，而不是根据经验来预期短期的价格变化。\n\n无论“减半规则”造成了多少风波，不少人仍坚持认为，该规定就是比特币设计的精髓，也是比特币稀缺性溢价的集中体现。对此，中本聪也曾经说过：\n“在几十年之后，当区块奖励几乎消失，交易手续费将成为节点的主要收入来源。因此，我非常确信，在 20 年之后，链上交易量要么非常巨大，要么一无所有。”\n那么，你对这一规则又有什么看法？你觉得在一个“不透明的市场”交易的风险有多大呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927532250,"gmtCreate":1588926211770,"gmtModify":1704178912415,"author":{"id":"3494368402127147","authorId":"3494368402127147","name":"奶牛奶牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f58953de7c9b2aa74f657baa45efc2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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