tethys的个人主页 - 老虎社区

tethys

tethys

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2020-02-13

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 30毫无问题想不通为什么爱奇艺市值能是哔哩哔哩的两倍

2020-02-18

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 学会个词扎空逢人就说一下笑出声

2020-02-12

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 想知道26日盘前还是盘后发布财报😂

2021-01-04

黄金长期看涨，毕竟美帝这一届政府可选财政政策有限，只能选择海量qe，美元在大放水的前提下对世界的影响力细微的变少，黄金涨跌的逻辑和人民币也是差不多的，只是人民币正在迅猛的国际化，黄金只是可以用来对冲部分美元贬值损失，所以人民币涨势很吓人。同时附一个调仓后的2101合约收益。（为了算贴水升水结算金什么的我还顺便考了个期货从业资格证）顺便讨张免佣卡(￢_￢)@出没在交易圈的情报员 $黄金主连(GCmain)$

2020-02-29

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 全仓了call。卸载了等财报完再回来

2020-03-02

射箭描靶

风口上的B站：中概股估值的轮回

2020-02-15

说美股崩盘说了两年了为什么还没崩

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3493247054408315\">@出没在交易圈的情报员</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"黄金长期看涨，毕竟美帝这一届政府可选财政政策有限，只能选择海量qe，美元在大放水的前提下对世界的影响力细微的变少，黄金涨跌的逻辑和人民币也是差不多的，只是人民币正在迅猛的国际化，黄金只是可以用来对冲部分美元贬值损失，所以人民币涨势很吓人。同时附一个调仓后的2101合约收益。（为了算贴水升水结算金什么的我还顺便考了个期货从业资格证）&nbsp;顺便讨张免佣卡(￢_￢)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3493247054408315\">@出没在交易圈的情报员</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"黄金长期看涨，毕竟美帝这一届政府可选财政政策有限，只能选择海量qe，美元在大放水的前提下对世界的影响力细微的变少，黄金涨跌的逻辑和人民币也是差不多的，只是人民币正在迅猛的国际化，黄金只是可以用来对冲部分美元贬值损失，所以人民币涨势很吓人。同时附一个调仓后的2101合约收益。（为了算贴水升水结算金什么的我还顺便考了个期货从业资格证） 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等财报完再回来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989720203","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983396786,"gmtCreate":1583145343845,"gmtModify":1704348749957,"author":{"id":"3494210031568182","authorId":"3494210031568182","name":"tethys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31d4b84a99c8329a3d736d63ad39d24f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494210031568182","authorIdStr":"3494210031568182"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"射箭描靶","listText":"射箭描靶","text":"射箭描靶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983396786","repostId":"2016336349","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2016336349","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1583027097,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2016336349?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-01 09:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"风口上的B站：中概股估值的轮回","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2016336349","media":"先知堂","summary":"跨年晚会，疫情催生宅经济，腾讯加持，如何看汇聚在多个风口之上市值逼近百亿美元的B站？","content":"<html><body><div><p>编者按：本文来自微信公众号“先知堂”（ID：gudaolundao），作者格先生与费先生，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>经授权发布。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.36krcdn.com/20200229/v2_9e3347131a9b4435a66d0802dd828174_img_000\"/></p>导语：跨年晚会，疫情催生宅经济，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>加持，如何看汇聚在多个风口之上市值逼近百亿美元的B站。<h3><strong>B站拳头业务缺乏核心竞争力</strong></h3><p>B站变现力度最大的游戏和直播业务，恰恰是它没有核心竞争力的地方。游戏和直播业务占3Q总收入74%。B站在二次元用户领域绝对的市场领导力和1.3亿MAU还没有让它在面对更为强势的内容生产方得到好处。</p>游戏流水和直播分成以及游戏版权支出，占该部分收入比重仍然高达70%。<p><span>无论是以8亿人民币取得英雄联盟三年中国区独家版权，还是5000万人民币签约<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>主播冯提莫都说明：</span></p>在斗鱼<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>的激烈竞争下，B站面对内容方议价能力有限。加上带宽和内容审核成本，在GPM层面B站这块业务目前还只能勉强盈利。<h3><strong>内容分发渠道很难获取高利润率</strong></h3><p>实际上，不管虎牙、斗鱼还是B站都还只是单纯的内容分发渠道，价值在于：以尽可能低的成本，好的体验，让用户享受到内容。</p><p><span>换个角度看，它们就像垂直自营电商。一定程度规模效应下的低利润率，是这个商业模式的主要特征，也是其价值的体现。</span></p>因此，期望它们在业务成熟后，通过运营杠杆获取互联网行业常见的高利润率的常见逻辑并不成立。<p>虎牙在行业洗牌结束营收120亿的情况下，毛利率只有20%多一点，净利率则只有个位数。B站的游戏直播业务虽然增长很快，但还是一个只有sub scale的后来者，需要付出更高代价获取收入增长：70%的分成比例远高于游戏分发业务，随着游戏直播在B站收入占比的上升，综合毛利率还将继续走低。</p><p><span>B站的行业属性与竞争地位，意味着它未来2-3年获得高个位数的利润率已经是很理想的结果。</span></p><h3><strong>互联网内容分发公司利润率高低的逻</strong><strong>辑</strong></h3><p>在内容链条上所处位置不同，对长期利润率的影响这一点，横向比较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、秀场直播的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">陌陌</a>/YY和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>就更清楚。</p><p><span>爱奇艺等长视频平台，长时间以来作为差异化不大的分发渠道，即使都有数亿用户，仍然面临居高不下的内容成本。</span></p><p>随着爱奇艺逐步加大自制剧投入，并打造自己的内容生产中台能力，加上行业限薪酬，其内容成本营收占比在18年已经见顶，我预计将从18年的84%逐年下降到2021年的54%。</p><p><span>陌陌和YY的秀场直播产业链条与电竞游戏直播相比，没有版权方的参与，因此能够享受比游戏直播更高的利润率。</span></p><p>微博85%的毛利率和35%的净利率，背后是占收入仅仅个位数的内容成本。</p><p><span>为什么同样是内容生态微博能有如此高的盈利能力？我想原因在于微博作为社交媒体平台，在“传播有推动力的信息，推动有传播力的关系”方面的独特价值。</span></p><p>一条本身毫不起眼不花分文的微博，可以经过微博平台的放大产生巨大的社会影响，带来可以变现的流量，而社会性事件是从来不会缺位的。最近的例子就是医生李文亮。因此，尽管微博面临增长瓶颈，但其在传播社会性事件的影响力不可替代，商业模式本身是具有较高壁垒的。</p><p><span>而B站有核心竞争力的二次元领域，面临商业化难题或者说较低的变现天花板。就广告这一最主要的商业化手段来说，B站核心群体总体消费能力有限，也不是主要消费子行业的目标用户。</span></p>相比用户体验的影响来说，这是制约其发展广告业务更深层次的原因。好的内容生态需要形成内容生产、消费和商业化的正向循环。<h3><strong>关于B站广告及整体变现的预测</strong></h3><p>虽然B站1百万up主每月上传3百多万视频，在消费端无论是日均83分钟时长、80%的留存率和人均每日19个视频浏览量（总计每日7.3亿视频浏览）的数据都很理想，但是这些内容仍然集中于动漫、科技、时尚生活等五个频道，相应的，广告收入也就局限于食品饮料、电商和游戏等3-5个行业。</p><p><span>还是拿微博作比较，16年上半年短视频爆发时，微博日均视频浏览量大约处于B站目前水平，但是微博的当时月流量超10亿次的内容频道已经接近20个，除了动漫之外，还有金融、时政、明星、时尚和体育等等，为吸引汽车、金融、地产、母婴和奢侈品等多个广告大户行业提供了土壤。反过来说，这也是微博用户群体当时下沉2-3线大众市场并且用户以主流消费人群为主的结果。</span></p><p>在持续“出圈”和泛化用户的努力下：B站未来2-3年变现其PUGC的终局，乐观情况下大概5亿美元广告年收入。</p><p><span>B站目标2021年底MAU能达到2.2亿，并且努力在lifestyle，时尚和明星等新领域拓展内容。MAU不能脱离内容而独立存在，B站最终能否收获2.2亿MAU还是取决于它的内容是否可以做到多元化。</span></p><p>作为对比，微博MAU达到2亿时，其月浏览量超过10亿的频道有20多个，目前B站从内容的广度上还有较大差距。从单个用户的广告收入来看，微博跟爱奇艺都在3-4美元左右。B站的内容形式相对更接近爱奇艺，而内容频道扩展路径则类似早期微博，因此用微博和爱奇艺的单用户变现水平作为对比有参考意义。</p><p><span>考虑到即使B站用户达到2.2亿目标，其用户仍然相对年轻（最新的B站用户平均年龄仍然是21.5岁，显示大龄用户其实留存不好），因此在地产、母婴、金融和高端消费品等行业能吸引到的广告预算有限。</span></p><p>假设B站能达到微博和爱奇艺80%的变现水平，即每个MAU广告收入2.5美元左右，那么B站稳定状态下广告收入大约是5亿美元。</p><p><span>基于对游戏直播和广告业务的上述判断，B站的中长期利润也就有了大概轮廓。游戏直播2021年后顺利的话，达到百亿营收也只能贡献1.5-2亿美元利润，广告业务利润高，假设可以达到40%的行业最高水平，那么可以贡献2亿美元利润。</span></p><p>直播电商业务虽然现在看起来在低基数上势头红火，但是成为利润支柱的可能性很小。微博的电商业务经过多年努力也仍然是不到200亿GMV，而抖音快手直播电商发展起来是因为数亿规模月活、多元化的内容、短视频的内容形式、品牌方配合和平台运营能力的综合结果。而且电商业务利润更低，难以对这块业务报以太大期望。</p><p><span>总的来看，B站稳定状态下比较乐观的预计利润在5亿美元以内，如果是15倍PE，估值中枢应该在65-75亿美元之间。</span></p><h3><strong>B站与类似增速中概股的估值顶部</strong></h3><p>跨年晚会和疫情催化用户高增，使市场对B站给予高估值可以理解。当前估值有多高？相对于长期估值似乎高了20%，但是短期估值指标已经严重透支。</p><p><span>相对2021年卖方不到1亿美元的预测，接近100倍的PE，已经处于历史上所有中概股在类似高增长时期估值区间的顶部。而每个MAU对应市值则接近微博在300亿美元市值顶峰时期的水平。</span></p><p>这并不意外，过去10几年来，市场对于变现启动，营收高增的中概股公司的估值相对合理水平溢价经常超过50%。从奇虎开始、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>、宝尊、微博到陌陌，无不如此。投资者需要知道这个游戏目前已经玩到了哪一关。</p><p><span>这里面能够显著改变B站估值中枢的是腾讯对B站的支持力度，特别是在内容上的倾斜。因为任何形式的支持会明显改变B站游戏和直播业务的盈利水平和长期估值。</span></p><ul></ul></div></body></html>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>风口上的B站：中概股估值的轮回</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风口上的B站：中概股估值的轮回\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-01 09:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/5296534><strong>先知堂</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>编者按：本文来自微信公众号“先知堂”（ID：gudaolundao），作者格先生与费先生，36氪经授权发布。导语：跨年晚会，疫情催生宅经济，腾讯加持，如何看汇聚在多个风口之上市值逼近百亿美元的B站。B站拳头业务缺乏核心竞争力B站变现力度最大的游戏和直播业务，恰恰是它没有核心竞争力的地方。游戏和直播业务占3Q总收入74%。B站在二次元用户领域绝对的市场领导力和1.3亿MAU还没有让它在面对更为强势的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/5296534\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dfca12a1e9d541cb46bc6ec6361a60a","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/5296534","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2016336349","content_text":"编者按：本文来自微信公众号“先知堂”（ID：gudaolundao），作者格先生与费先生，36氪经授权发布。导语：跨年晚会，疫情催生宅经济，腾讯加持，如何看汇聚在多个风口之上市值逼近百亿美元的B站。B站拳头业务缺乏核心竞争力B站变现力度最大的游戏和直播业务，恰恰是它没有核心竞争力的地方。游戏和直播业务占3Q总收入74%。B站在二次元用户领域绝对的市场领导力和1.3亿MAU还没有让它在面对更为强势的内容生产方得到好处。游戏流水和直播分成以及游戏版权支出，占该部分收入比重仍然高达70%。无论是以8亿人民币取得英雄联盟三年中国区独家版权，还是5000万人民币签约斗鱼主播冯提莫都说明：在斗鱼虎牙的激烈竞争下，B站面对内容方议价能力有限。加上带宽和内容审核成本，在GPM层面B站这块业务目前还只能勉强盈利。内容分发渠道很难获取高利润率实际上，不管虎牙、斗鱼还是B站都还只是单纯的内容分发渠道，价值在于：以尽可能低的成本，好的体验，让用户享受到内容。换个角度看，它们就像垂直自营电商。一定程度规模效应下的低利润率，是这个商业模式的主要特征，也是其价值的体现。因此，期望它们在业务成熟后，通过运营杠杆获取互联网行业常见的高利润率的常见逻辑并不成立。虎牙在行业洗牌结束营收120亿的情况下，毛利率只有20%多一点，净利率则只有个位数。B站的游戏直播业务虽然增长很快，但还是一个只有sub scale的后来者，需要付出更高代价获取收入增长：70%的分成比例远高于游戏分发业务，随着游戏直播在B站收入占比的上升，综合毛利率还将继续走低。B站的行业属性与竞争地位，意味着它未来2-3年获得高个位数的利润率已经是很理想的结果。互联网内容分发公司利润率高低的逻辑在内容链条上所处位置不同，对长期利润率的影响这一点，横向比较爱奇艺、秀场直播的陌陌/YY和微博就更清楚。爱奇艺等长视频平台，长时间以来作为差异化不大的分发渠道，即使都有数亿用户，仍然面临居高不下的内容成本。随着爱奇艺逐步加大自制剧投入，并打造自己的内容生产中台能力，加上行业限薪酬，其内容成本营收占比在18年已经见顶，我预计将从18年的84%逐年下降到2021年的54%。陌陌和YY的秀场直播产业链条与电竞游戏直播相比，没有版权方的参与，因此能够享受比游戏直播更高的利润率。微博85%的毛利率和35%的净利率，背后是占收入仅仅个位数的内容成本。为什么同样是内容生态微博能有如此高的盈利能力？我想原因在于微博作为社交媒体平台，在“传播有推动力的信息，推动有传播力的关系”方面的独特价值。一条本身毫不起眼不花分文的微博，可以经过微博平台的放大产生巨大的社会影响，带来可以变现的流量，而社会性事件是从来不会缺位的。最近的例子就是医生李文亮。因此，尽管微博面临增长瓶颈，但其在传播社会性事件的影响力不可替代，商业模式本身是具有较高壁垒的。而B站有核心竞争力的二次元领域，面临商业化难题或者说较低的变现天花板。就广告这一最主要的商业化手段来说，B站核心群体总体消费能力有限，也不是主要消费子行业的目标用户。相比用户体验的影响来说，这是制约其发展广告业务更深层次的原因。好的内容生态需要形成内容生产、消费和商业化的正向循环。关于B站广告及整体变现的预测虽然B站1百万up主每月上传3百多万视频，在消费端无论是日均83分钟时长、80%的留存率和人均每日19个视频浏览量（总计每日7.3亿视频浏览）的数据都很理想，但是这些内容仍然集中于动漫、科技、时尚生活等五个频道，相应的，广告收入也就局限于食品饮料、电商和游戏等3-5个行业。还是拿微博作比较，16年上半年短视频爆发时，微博日均视频浏览量大约处于B站目前水平，但是微博的当时月流量超10亿次的内容频道已经接近20个，除了动漫之外，还有金融、时政、明星、时尚和体育等等，为吸引汽车、金融、地产、母婴和奢侈品等多个广告大户行业提供了土壤。反过来说，这也是微博用户群体当时下沉2-3线大众市场并且用户以主流消费人群为主的结果。在持续“出圈”和泛化用户的努力下：B站未来2-3年变现其PUGC的终局，乐观情况下大概5亿美元广告年收入。B站目标2021年底MAU能达到2.2亿，并且努力在lifestyle，时尚和明星等新领域拓展内容。MAU不能脱离内容而独立存在，B站最终能否收获2.2亿MAU还是取决于它的内容是否可以做到多元化。作为对比，微博MAU达到2亿时，其月浏览量超过10亿的频道有20多个，目前B站从内容的广度上还有较大差距。从单个用户的广告收入来看，微博跟爱奇艺都在3-4美元左右。B站的内容形式相对更接近爱奇艺，而内容频道扩展路径则类似早期微博，因此用微博和爱奇艺的单用户变现水平作为对比有参考意义。考虑到即使B站用户达到2.2亿目标，其用户仍然相对年轻（最新的B站用户平均年龄仍然是21.5岁，显示大龄用户其实留存不好），因此在地产、母婴、金融和高端消费品等行业能吸引到的广告预算有限。假设B站能达到微博和爱奇艺80%的变现水平，即每个MAU广告收入2.5美元左右，那么B站稳定状态下广告收入大约是5亿美元。基于对游戏直播和广告业务的上述判断，B站的中长期利润也就有了大概轮廓。游戏直播2021年后顺利的话，达到百亿营收也只能贡献1.5-2亿美元利润，广告业务利润高，假设可以达到40%的行业最高水平，那么可以贡献2亿美元利润。直播电商业务虽然现在看起来在低基数上势头红火，但是成为利润支柱的可能性很小。微博的电商业务经过多年努力也仍然是不到200亿GMV，而抖音快手直播电商发展起来是因为数亿规模月活、多元化的内容、短视频的内容形式、品牌方配合和平台运营能力的综合结果。而且电商业务利润更低，难以对这块业务报以太大期望。总的来看，B站稳定状态下比较乐观的预计利润在5亿美元以内，如果是15倍PE，估值中枢应该在65-75亿美元之间。B站与类似增速中概股的估值顶部跨年晚会和疫情催化用户高增，使市场对B站给予高估值可以理解。当前估值有多高？相对于长期估值似乎高了20%，但是短期估值指标已经严重透支。相对2021年卖方不到1亿美元的预测，接近100倍的PE，已经处于历史上所有中概股在类似高增长时期估值区间的顶部。而每个MAU对应市值则接近微博在300亿美元市值顶峰时期的水平。这并不意外，过去10几年来，市场对于变现启动，营收高增的中概股公司的估值相对合理水平溢价经常超过50%。从奇虎开始、唯品会、宝尊、微博到陌陌，无不如此。投资者需要知道这个游戏目前已经玩到了哪一关。这里面能够显著改变B站估值中枢的是腾讯对B站的支持力度，特别是在内容上的倾斜。因为任何形式的支持会明显改变B站游戏和直播业务的盈利水平和长期估值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917621466,"gmtCreate":1581754672755,"gmtModify":1704345159317,"author":{"id":"3494210031568182","authorId":"3494210031568182","name":"tethys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31d4b84a99c8329a3d736d63ad39d24f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494210031568182","authorIdStr":"3494210031568182"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说美股崩盘说了两年了 为什么还没崩","listText":"说美股崩盘说了两年了 为什么还没崩","text":"说美股崩盘说了两年了 为什么还没崩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917621466","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}