鱼月的个人主页 - 老虎社区

鱼月

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2020-08-22

应该不会

拼多多的凌厉攻势是否会告一段落？应该不会

2019-10-18

$中集车辆(01839)$被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]

2019-10-15

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$翻身就靠你了……

2019-08-30

刚止损你就涨涨涨😠

2019-08-20

真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]

2019-08-15

你是怎么回事？

2019-08-09

$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]

2019-07-23

$中烟香港(06055)$今日少转1K不开心☹️

2019-07-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$毁死了

2019-07-02

$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手坐等起飞

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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"images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979140878","repostId":"1156110538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156110538","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"国金证券传媒与互联网研究团队的公众号。我们是活跃在互联网、传媒娱乐、信息技术市场上的掘金怪盗团，专门寻找宝物，也就是优秀的上市公司或非上市公司。欢迎投资者、业内人士和上市公司与我们联系。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"互联网怪盗团","id":"1021834551","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a23ff01e42d474fbc5f993ee27525e2"},"pubTimestamp":1598013405,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156110538?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-21 20:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多的凌厉攻势是否会告一段落？应该不会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156110538","media":"互联网怪盗团","summary":"拼多多于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.3","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.32亿人，而月活用户(MAU)增长至5.69亿人。</p>\n<p>这份财报显然是喜忧参半的，也注定会引发新一轮的争议，因为看多和看空的人都能找到足够的、有说服力的论据：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>在用户层面，仅仅一个季度之内，拼多多就新增了5510万年活买家，以及8140万月活用户——这简直是不可思议的壮举。在同一个季度之内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>仅新增了3000万年活买家，淘宝/天猫也仅新增了1600万年活买家；淘宝特价版在获得大量推广资源之后，MAU达到了4000万，仍然远低于拼多多在一个季度内新增的MAU。注意，拼多多公布的MAU仅包括自身APP，不包括小程序等第三方渠道。</p></li>\n <li><p>然而，在GMV层面，拼多多的增速明显放缓。我们可以推算出：上个季度它的单季度GMV增速约为90%，本季度仅为50%；单季度ARPU肯定是下滑的。相比之下，天猫实体GMV的同比增速都达到了27%，也就是说，拼多多追赶淘宝/天猫的速度大幅减缓了。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>那么问题来了：为什么拼多多的用户持续高增长，而GMV增速大幅放缓？为什么它的客单价不升反降？这是公司的主动选择，还是撞上增长瓶颈的结果？更进一步说，过去四年拼多多的野蛮生长是否即将告一段落？2014-17年，京东曾经对淘系电商发起过凌厉攻势，并且一度自信地认为能够在三年内赶超淘系，却在2018年被再次甩开差距——同样的事情会不会发生在拼多多身上？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57566f1616309f66e1db2ace62d488b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\"></p>\n<p>这些问题没有那么容易回答，我们需要先理解2020年以来拼多多做了什么、打算做什么。让我先说说我的大致结论，分为如下三条：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>拼多多在流量端的优势是难以动摇的，它的社交/商品/休闲游戏三位一体的获客体系的竞争力毫无削弱。2020年的经济形势，促使更多消费者转向拼多多；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>方面的发力，也有助于养成用户习惯。这一点不需要有任何担心。</p></li>\n <li><p>从财报可以看出，上个季度拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少没有增加补贴力度（以补贴/GMV或补贴/收入为指标）；这可能是GMV增速放缓的主要原因。此外，在今年的618购物节，阿里、京东均投入重兵，而拼多多比较保守——归根结底，购物节这个舞台不太适合拼多多。所以，GMV的放缓与扣非净亏损的大幅收窄在同一时间发生。</p></li>\n <li><p>在产品迭代方面，拼多多的头脑非常清醒：不去迎合现在气势汹汹的直播电商潮流（非常正确！），而是大力发展拼小圈，以及强化店铺关注功能。这样，拼多多既能进一步巩固用户黏性，又能为品牌升级做好全面准备。既然拼多多的头脑是清醒的，它就不会衰落。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>下面展开讨论。</p>\n<p><b>首先，拼多多的获客/留客/拉回流体系，</b>依托于三个主要因素：微信传播的社交性和趣味性，低价爆款商品（大部分白牌+少部分大牌），以及应用内的休闲游戏玩法。上述“三位一体”在AAC/MAU/DAU/用户时长等多个层面赋予了拼多多巨大优势，而且优势至今尚未有衰减迹象。竞争对手无一能复制这样的优势——有人说，2020年二季度京喜小程序的MAU已经超过拼多多，但是我了解的情况并非如此。无论是京喜、淘宝特价版还是聚划算，在流量端都远远比不上拼多多。我知道，肯定会有人留言宣称京喜有多么强大，但这并非事实。</p>\n<p>2020年宏观经济的高度不确定性，提高了消费者的价格敏感性，促使他们更依赖于拼多多这样的平台。2017-19年，很多自封的“高端消费者”可能还会纯粹因为面子而故意不用拼多多，今年这样的人应该很少见了。现在拼多多大力发展农产品，包括蔬果、粮油、地方农货等，这些往往是消费频次较高的品类。总而言之，我预计拼多多的AAC/MAU仍将维持快速增长，直至触达大约10亿用户的上限，也就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>网民的总人数。</p>\n<p><b>其次，从财报看，拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少是没有增加。</b>这个季度，拼多多的销售费用为89亿人民币，同比增长50%，与单季度GMV增速大致相仿；销售费用与营业收入的比重降低至73%，是上市以来的最低水平——要知道，上个季度拼多多销售费用达到了营业收入的108%！拼多多完全可以无限制扩大“百亿补贴计划”，换取更多的GMV，但是它没有这么做。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28c90052ee7eaee47bf62d50685725e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>拼多多选择在二季度收紧补贴，可能受到了“史上最惨烈的618购物节”影响：京东、淘宝/天猫均在此投入重兵，把618打出了双十一的味道。事实上，拼多多从2019年才开始举办自己的618活动，这种以中高端品牌为主力的购物节从来不是它的主场。在618前后回避淘系和京东的兵锋，然后在三季度的传统“电商淡季”不声不响地打回来，或许是一种性价比更高的策略。</p>\n<p><b>再次，拼多多的产品迭代思路是正确的，能避免竞争对手犯过的错误。</b>2019年以来，直播电商成为了市场关注的风口，而拼多多对此没有很大兴趣。它推出了直播功能，但是只赋予较少的资源。事实上，直播电商根本不是一种新的“商业模式”，而只是一种促销形式；它与发券或满减没有本质区别。淘宝、抖音、快手发展直播电商各有目的：淘宝是为了占领用户时长，抖音和快手则是以直播作为进军电商交易的工具。显然，拼多多不存在上述目的，也就不需要大力发展直播电商。</p>\n<p>拼多多今年最重要的新增功能是拼小圈，它是迄今唯一一个成功的“电商社交”平台。在长期，它还能降低拼多多对微信的依赖度。这个功能非常有趣，秉承了拼多多一贯的“游乐场风格”。与此同时，对店铺关注功能的强化也值得注意：在历史上，拼多多以单品SKU运营为主，店铺运营并非重点；但是要进军中高端品牌电商，就必须强调店铺运营。看样子，拼多多完全知道自己要做什么、该做什么，产品迭代走在正确的道路上，那就没有什么真正值得担心的了。</p>\n<p>综上所述，这个季度的财报在我看来是喜忧参半，但是喜的因素是长期的，而忧的因素是短期的。市场最担心的是拼多多的“高增长期”会不会告一段落，进入“平稳增长”的轨道，就像当年的京东那样——这个担心是不必要的。宏观经济、行业态势和自身产品迭代全部站在拼多多一边，而它的管理层又保持着清醒的头脑。不过，市场似乎将这份财报理解为负面，所以盘前股价已经下跌10%之多。这大概是因为拼多多此前的涨幅过于凶猛，市场过早地兑现了太多的正面预期。市场情绪就像钟摆，总是在过度悲观和过度乐观之间摆来摆去，就算市值达到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的规模也不能例外。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7a25cafd2c68cfbb62345450e594c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"414\"></p>\n<p>拼多多终究会面临瓶颈期，与淘系、京东两强展开比现在还要激烈的血与火的战役——但不是现在，而是2021年下半年或2022年。到了那时，拼多多的GMV将无限逼近京东，并达到淘系的1/4甚至1/3；它急需攻克更多的领地，提升ARPU和货币化率。所以，它将对阿里核心的服装及美妆品类，以及京东核心的3C品类展开猛攻。那场战役的规模和激烈性，将会使今天的“百亿补贴”相形见绌。这将是一场非常漫长的战争，前后花费的时间或许会超过十年，而我们现在连一半的路程都还没有走完。接下来的好戏还很多，至少在目前，势头还是站在拼多多这一边。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多的凌厉攻势是否会告一段落？应该不会</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多的凌厉攻势是否会告一段落？应该不会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1021834551\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a23ff01e42d474fbc5f993ee27525e2);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">互联网怪盗团 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-21 20:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.32亿人，而月活用户(MAU)增长至5.69亿人。</p>\n<p>这份财报显然是喜忧参半的，也注定会引发新一轮的争议，因为看多和看空的人都能找到足够的、有说服力的论据：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>在用户层面，仅仅一个季度之内，拼多多就新增了5510万年活买家，以及8140万月活用户——这简直是不可思议的壮举。在同一个季度之内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>仅新增了3000万年活买家，淘宝/天猫也仅新增了1600万年活买家；淘宝特价版在获得大量推广资源之后，MAU达到了4000万，仍然远低于拼多多在一个季度内新增的MAU。注意，拼多多公布的MAU仅包括自身APP，不包括小程序等第三方渠道。</p></li>\n <li><p>然而，在GMV层面，拼多多的增速明显放缓。我们可以推算出：上个季度它的单季度GMV增速约为90%，本季度仅为50%；单季度ARPU肯定是下滑的。相比之下，天猫实体GMV的同比增速都达到了27%，也就是说，拼多多追赶淘宝/天猫的速度大幅减缓了。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>那么问题来了：为什么拼多多的用户持续高增长，而GMV增速大幅放缓？为什么它的客单价不升反降？这是公司的主动选择，还是撞上增长瓶颈的结果？更进一步说，过去四年拼多多的野蛮生长是否即将告一段落？2014-17年，京东曾经对淘系电商发起过凌厉攻势，并且一度自信地认为能够在三年内赶超淘系，却在2018年被再次甩开差距——同样的事情会不会发生在拼多多身上？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57566f1616309f66e1db2ace62d488b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\"></p>\n<p>这些问题没有那么容易回答，我们需要先理解2020年以来拼多多做了什么、打算做什么。让我先说说我的大致结论，分为如下三条：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>拼多多在流量端的优势是难以动摇的，它的社交/商品/休闲游戏三位一体的获客体系的竞争力毫无削弱。2020年的经济形势，促使更多消费者转向拼多多；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>方面的发力，也有助于养成用户习惯。这一点不需要有任何担心。</p></li>\n <li><p>从财报可以看出，上个季度拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少没有增加补贴力度（以补贴/GMV或补贴/收入为指标）；这可能是GMV增速放缓的主要原因。此外，在今年的618购物节，阿里、京东均投入重兵，而拼多多比较保守——归根结底，购物节这个舞台不太适合拼多多。所以，GMV的放缓与扣非净亏损的大幅收窄在同一时间发生。</p></li>\n <li><p>在产品迭代方面，拼多多的头脑非常清醒：不去迎合现在气势汹汹的直播电商潮流（非常正确！），而是大力发展拼小圈，以及强化店铺关注功能。这样，拼多多既能进一步巩固用户黏性，又能为品牌升级做好全面准备。既然拼多多的头脑是清醒的，它就不会衰落。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>下面展开讨论。</p>\n<p><b>首先，拼多多的获客/留客/拉回流体系，</b>依托于三个主要因素：微信传播的社交性和趣味性，低价爆款商品（大部分白牌+少部分大牌），以及应用内的休闲游戏玩法。上述“三位一体”在AAC/MAU/DAU/用户时长等多个层面赋予了拼多多巨大优势，而且优势至今尚未有衰减迹象。竞争对手无一能复制这样的优势——有人说，2020年二季度京喜小程序的MAU已经超过拼多多，但是我了解的情况并非如此。无论是京喜、淘宝特价版还是聚划算，在流量端都远远比不上拼多多。我知道，肯定会有人留言宣称京喜有多么强大，但这并非事实。</p>\n<p>2020年宏观经济的高度不确定性，提高了消费者的价格敏感性，促使他们更依赖于拼多多这样的平台。2017-19年，很多自封的“高端消费者”可能还会纯粹因为面子而故意不用拼多多，今年这样的人应该很少见了。现在拼多多大力发展农产品，包括蔬果、粮油、地方农货等，这些往往是消费频次较高的品类。总而言之，我预计拼多多的AAC/MAU仍将维持快速增长，直至触达大约10亿用户的上限，也就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>网民的总人数。</p>\n<p><b>其次，从财报看，拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少是没有增加。</b>这个季度，拼多多的销售费用为89亿人民币，同比增长50%，与单季度GMV增速大致相仿；销售费用与营业收入的比重降低至73%，是上市以来的最低水平——要知道，上个季度拼多多销售费用达到了营业收入的108%！拼多多完全可以无限制扩大“百亿补贴计划”，换取更多的GMV，但是它没有这么做。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28c90052ee7eaee47bf62d50685725e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>拼多多选择在二季度收紧补贴，可能受到了“史上最惨烈的618购物节”影响：京东、淘宝/天猫均在此投入重兵，把618打出了双十一的味道。事实上，拼多多从2019年才开始举办自己的618活动，这种以中高端品牌为主力的购物节从来不是它的主场。在618前后回避淘系和京东的兵锋，然后在三季度的传统“电商淡季”不声不响地打回来，或许是一种性价比更高的策略。</p>\n<p><b>再次，拼多多的产品迭代思路是正确的，能避免竞争对手犯过的错误。</b>2019年以来，直播电商成为了市场关注的风口，而拼多多对此没有很大兴趣。它推出了直播功能，但是只赋予较少的资源。事实上，直播电商根本不是一种新的“商业模式”，而只是一种促销形式；它与发券或满减没有本质区别。淘宝、抖音、快手发展直播电商各有目的：淘宝是为了占领用户时长，抖音和快手则是以直播作为进军电商交易的工具。显然，拼多多不存在上述目的，也就不需要大力发展直播电商。</p>\n<p>拼多多今年最重要的新增功能是拼小圈，它是迄今唯一一个成功的“电商社交”平台。在长期，它还能降低拼多多对微信的依赖度。这个功能非常有趣，秉承了拼多多一贯的“游乐场风格”。与此同时，对店铺关注功能的强化也值得注意：在历史上，拼多多以单品SKU运营为主，店铺运营并非重点；但是要进军中高端品牌电商，就必须强调店铺运营。看样子，拼多多完全知道自己要做什么、该做什么，产品迭代走在正确的道路上，那就没有什么真正值得担心的了。</p>\n<p>综上所述，这个季度的财报在我看来是喜忧参半，但是喜的因素是长期的，而忧的因素是短期的。市场最担心的是拼多多的“高增长期”会不会告一段落，进入“平稳增长”的轨道，就像当年的京东那样——这个担心是不必要的。宏观经济、行业态势和自身产品迭代全部站在拼多多一边，而它的管理层又保持着清醒的头脑。不过，市场似乎将这份财报理解为负面，所以盘前股价已经下跌10%之多。这大概是因为拼多多此前的涨幅过于凶猛，市场过早地兑现了太多的正面预期。市场情绪就像钟摆，总是在过度悲观和过度乐观之间摆来摆去，就算市值达到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的规模也不能例外。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7a25cafd2c68cfbb62345450e594c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"414\"></p>\n<p>拼多多终究会面临瓶颈期，与淘系、京东两强展开比现在还要激烈的血与火的战役——但不是现在，而是2021年下半年或2022年。到了那时，拼多多的GMV将无限逼近京东，并达到淘系的1/4甚至1/3；它急需攻克更多的领地，提升ARPU和货币化率。所以，它将对阿里核心的服装及美妆品类，以及京东核心的3C品类展开猛攻。那场战役的规模和激烈性，将会使今天的“百亿补贴”相形见绌。这将是一场非常漫长的战争，前后花费的时间或许会超过十年，而我们现在连一半的路程都还没有走完。接下来的好戏还很多，至少在目前，势头还是站在拼多多这一边。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a495ea6a2b99a896e87eba4430367e","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156110538","content_text":"拼多多于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.32亿人，而月活用户(MAU)增长至5.69亿人。\n这份财报显然是喜忧参半的，也注定会引发新一轮的争议，因为看多和看空的人都能找到足够的、有说服力的论据：\n\n在用户层面，仅仅一个季度之内，拼多多就新增了5510万年活买家，以及8140万月活用户——这简直是不可思议的壮举。在同一个季度之内，京东仅新增了3000万年活买家，淘宝/天猫也仅新增了1600万年活买家；淘宝特价版在获得大量推广资源之后，MAU达到了4000万，仍然远低于拼多多在一个季度内新增的MAU。注意，拼多多公布的MAU仅包括自身APP，不包括小程序等第三方渠道。\n然而，在GMV层面，拼多多的增速明显放缓。我们可以推算出：上个季度它的单季度GMV增速约为90%，本季度仅为50%；单季度ARPU肯定是下滑的。相比之下，天猫实体GMV的同比增速都达到了27%，也就是说，拼多多追赶淘宝/天猫的速度大幅减缓了。\n\n那么问题来了：为什么拼多多的用户持续高增长，而GMV增速大幅放缓？为什么它的客单价不升反降？这是公司的主动选择，还是撞上增长瓶颈的结果？更进一步说，过去四年拼多多的野蛮生长是否即将告一段落？2014-17年，京东曾经对淘系电商发起过凌厉攻势，并且一度自信地认为能够在三年内赶超淘系，却在2018年被再次甩开差距——同样的事情会不会发生在拼多多身上？\n\n这些问题没有那么容易回答，我们需要先理解2020年以来拼多多做了什么、打算做什么。让我先说说我的大致结论，分为如下三条：\n\n拼多多在流量端的优势是难以动摇的，它的社交/商品/休闲游戏三位一体的获客体系的竞争力毫无削弱。2020年的经济形势，促使更多消费者转向拼多多；在农产品方面的发力，也有助于养成用户习惯。这一点不需要有任何担心。\n从财报可以看出，上个季度拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少没有增加补贴力度（以补贴/GMV或补贴/收入为指标）；这可能是GMV增速放缓的主要原因。此外，在今年的618购物节，阿里、京东均投入重兵，而拼多多比较保守——归根结底，购物节这个舞台不太适合拼多多。所以，GMV的放缓与扣非净亏损的大幅收窄在同一时间发生。\n在产品迭代方面，拼多多的头脑非常清醒：不去迎合现在气势汹汹的直播电商潮流（非常正确！），而是大力发展拼小圈，以及强化店铺关注功能。这样，拼多多既能进一步巩固用户黏性，又能为品牌升级做好全面准备。既然拼多多的头脑是清醒的，它就不会衰落。\n\n下面展开讨论。\n首先，拼多多的获客/留客/拉回流体系，依托于三个主要因素：微信传播的社交性和趣味性，低价爆款商品（大部分白牌+少部分大牌），以及应用内的休闲游戏玩法。上述“三位一体”在AAC/MAU/DAU/用户时长等多个层面赋予了拼多多巨大优势，而且优势至今尚未有衰减迹象。竞争对手无一能复制这样的优势——有人说，2020年二季度京喜小程序的MAU已经超过拼多多，但是我了解的情况并非如此。无论是京喜、淘宝特价版还是聚划算，在流量端都远远比不上拼多多。我知道，肯定会有人留言宣称京喜有多么强大，但这并非事实。\n2020年宏观经济的高度不确定性，提高了消费者的价格敏感性，促使他们更依赖于拼多多这样的平台。2017-19年，很多自封的“高端消费者”可能还会纯粹因为面子而故意不用拼多多，今年这样的人应该很少见了。现在拼多多大力发展农产品，包括蔬果、粮油、地方农货等，这些往往是消费频次较高的品类。总而言之，我预计拼多多的AAC/MAU仍将维持快速增长，直至触达大约10亿用户的上限，也就是中国移动网民的总人数。\n其次，从财报看，拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少是没有增加。这个季度，拼多多的销售费用为89亿人民币，同比增长50%，与单季度GMV增速大致相仿；销售费用与营业收入的比重降低至73%，是上市以来的最低水平——要知道，上个季度拼多多销售费用达到了营业收入的108%！拼多多完全可以无限制扩大“百亿补贴计划”，换取更多的GMV，但是它没有这么做。\n\n拼多多选择在二季度收紧补贴，可能受到了“史上最惨烈的618购物节”影响：京东、淘宝/天猫均在此投入重兵，把618打出了双十一的味道。事实上，拼多多从2019年才开始举办自己的618活动，这种以中高端品牌为主力的购物节从来不是它的主场。在618前后回避淘系和京东的兵锋，然后在三季度的传统“电商淡季”不声不响地打回来，或许是一种性价比更高的策略。\n再次，拼多多的产品迭代思路是正确的，能避免竞争对手犯过的错误。2019年以来，直播电商成为了市场关注的风口，而拼多多对此没有很大兴趣。它推出了直播功能，但是只赋予较少的资源。事实上，直播电商根本不是一种新的“商业模式”，而只是一种促销形式；它与发券或满减没有本质区别。淘宝、抖音、快手发展直播电商各有目的：淘宝是为了占领用户时长，抖音和快手则是以直播作为进军电商交易的工具。显然，拼多多不存在上述目的，也就不需要大力发展直播电商。\n拼多多今年最重要的新增功能是拼小圈，它是迄今唯一一个成功的“电商社交”平台。在长期，它还能降低拼多多对微信的依赖度。这个功能非常有趣，秉承了拼多多一贯的“游乐场风格”。与此同时，对店铺关注功能的强化也值得注意：在历史上，拼多多以单品SKU运营为主，店铺运营并非重点；但是要进军中高端品牌电商，就必须强调店铺运营。看样子，拼多多完全知道自己要做什么、该做什么，产品迭代走在正确的道路上，那就没有什么真正值得担心的了。\n综上所述，这个季度的财报在我看来是喜忧参半，但是喜的因素是长期的，而忧的因素是短期的。市场最担心的是拼多多的“高增长期”会不会告一段落，进入“平稳增长”的轨道，就像当年的京东那样——这个担心是不必要的。宏观经济、行业态势和自身产品迭代全部站在拼多多一边，而它的管理层又保持着清醒的头脑。不过，市场似乎将这份财报理解为负面，所以盘前股价已经下跌10%之多。这大概是因为拼多多此前的涨幅过于凶猛，市场过早地兑现了太多的正面预期。市场情绪就像钟摆，总是在过度悲观和过度乐观之间摆来摆去，就算市值达到阿里巴巴、腾讯的规模也不能例外。\n\n拼多多终究会面临瓶颈期，与淘系、京东两强展开比现在还要激烈的血与火的战役——但不是现在，而是2021年下半年或2022年。到了那时，拼多多的GMV将无限逼近京东，并达到淘系的1/4甚至1/3；它急需攻克更多的领地，提升ARPU和货币化率。所以，它将对阿里核心的服装及美妆品类，以及京东核心的3C品类展开猛攻。那场战役的规模和激烈性，将会使今天的“百亿补贴”相形见绌。这将是一场非常漫长的战争，前后花费的时间或许会超过十年，而我们现在连一半的路程都还没有走完。接下来的好戏还很多，至少在目前，势头还是站在拼多多这一边。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":938820721,"gmtCreate":1571387755263,"gmtModify":1704722389791,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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