鱼月的个人主页 - 老虎社区

鱼月

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：上海

40关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2020-08-22

应该不会

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-10-18

$中集车辆(01839)$被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]

2019-10-15

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$翻身就靠你了……

2019-08-30

刚止损你就涨涨涨😠

2019-08-20

真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]

2019-08-15

你是怎么回事？

2019-08-09

$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]

2019-07-23

$中烟香港(06055)$今日少转1K不开心☹️

2019-07-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$毁死了

2019-07-02

$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手坐等起飞

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3493349808949748","uuid":"3493349808949748","gmtCreate":1530255787964,"gmtModify":1530255787964,"name":"鱼月","pinyin":"yyyuyue","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":40,"tweetSize":10,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.79%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.56%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"上海","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":979140878,"gmtCreate":1598025928394,"gmtModify":1704217766820,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该不会","listText":"应该不会","text":"应该不会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979140878","repostId":"1156110538","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":938820721,"gmtCreate":1571387755263,"gmtModify":1704722389791,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01839\">$中集车辆(01839)$</a>被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01839\">$中集车辆(01839)$</a>被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]","text":"$中集车辆(01839)$被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/938820721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":938015556,"gmtCreate":1571149682475,"gmtModify":1704721852552,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>翻身就靠你了……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>翻身就靠你了……","text":"$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$翻身就靠你了……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/938015556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997197729,"gmtCreate":1567178370761,"gmtModify":1704715920206,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"刚止损你就涨涨涨😠","listText":"刚止损你就涨涨涨😠","text":"刚止损你就涨涨涨😠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/997197729","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995402839,"gmtCreate":1566260538121,"gmtModify":1704713949947,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]","listText":"真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]","text":"真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995402839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995120697,"gmtCreate":1565879089819,"gmtModify":1704713369804,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你是怎么回事？","listText":"你是怎么回事？","text":"你是怎么回事？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995120697","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992251648,"gmtCreate":1565361966784,"gmtModify":1704712466736,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$</a>你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$</a>你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]","text":"$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992251648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501550534906274","authorId":"3501550534906274","name":"明月清风不要钱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3501550534906274","authorIdStr":"3501550534906274"},"content":"一样，1925进厂","text":"一样，1925进厂","html":"一样，1925进厂"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993102896,"gmtCreate":1563870391915,"gmtModify":1704706093270,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>今日少转1K不开心☹️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>今日少转1K不开心☹️","text":"$中烟香港(06055)$今日少转1K不开心☹️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993102896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993059525,"gmtCreate":1563605318567,"gmtModify":1704705789915,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>毁死了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>毁死了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$毁死了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993059525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":907444266,"gmtCreate":1562045650755,"gmtModify":1704703000259,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493349808949748","authorIdStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手 坐等起飞","listText":"$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手 坐等起飞","text":"$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手 坐等起飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907444266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":938820721,"gmtCreate":1571387755263,"gmtModify":1704722389791,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01839\">$中集车辆(01839)$</a>被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01839\">$中集车辆(01839)$</a>被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]","text":"$中集车辆(01839)$被低估的优质股，何时才能不🈹️，集装箱式的📈啊啊啊啊啊[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/938820721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":938015556,"gmtCreate":1571149682475,"gmtModify":1704721852552,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>翻身就靠你了……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>翻身就靠你了……","text":"$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$翻身就靠你了……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/938015556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992251648,"gmtCreate":1565361966784,"gmtModify":1704712466736,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$</a>你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$</a>你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]","text":"$Booking Holdings(BKNG)$你什么情况？一买就跌[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992251648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501550534906274","authorId":"3501550534906274","name":"明月清风不要钱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3501550534906274","idStr":"3501550534906274"},"content":"一样，1925进厂","text":"一样，1925进厂","html":"一样，1925进厂"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993059525,"gmtCreate":1563605318567,"gmtModify":1704705789915,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>毁死了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>毁死了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$毁死了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993059525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993102896,"gmtCreate":1563870391915,"gmtModify":1704706093270,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>今日少转1K不开心☹️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>今日少转1K不开心☹️","text":"$中烟香港(06055)$今日少转1K不开心☹️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993102896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":907444266,"gmtCreate":1562045650755,"gmtModify":1704703000259,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手 坐等起飞","listText":"$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手 坐等起飞","text":"$中烟香港(06055)$ 一手在手 坐等起飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907444266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979140878,"gmtCreate":1598025928394,"gmtModify":1704217766820,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该不会","listText":"应该不会","text":"应该不会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979140878","repostId":"1156110538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156110538","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"国金证券传媒与互联网研究团队的公众号。我们是活跃在互联网、传媒娱乐、信息技术市场上的掘金怪盗团，专门寻找宝物，也就是优秀的上市公司或非上市公司。欢迎投资者、业内人士和上市公司与我们联系。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"互联网怪盗团","id":"1021834551","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a23ff01e42d474fbc5f993ee27525e2"},"pubTimestamp":1598013405,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156110538?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-21 20:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多的凌厉攻势是否会告一段落？应该不会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156110538","media":"互联网怪盗团","summary":"拼多多于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.3","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.32亿人，而月活用户(MAU)增长至5.69亿人。</p>\n<p>这份财报显然是喜忧参半的，也注定会引发新一轮的争议，因为看多和看空的人都能找到足够的、有说服力的论据：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>在用户层面，仅仅一个季度之内，拼多多就新增了5510万年活买家，以及8140万月活用户——这简直是不可思议的壮举。在同一个季度之内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>仅新增了3000万年活买家，淘宝/天猫也仅新增了1600万年活买家；淘宝特价版在获得大量推广资源之后，MAU达到了4000万，仍然远低于拼多多在一个季度内新增的MAU。注意，拼多多公布的MAU仅包括自身APP，不包括小程序等第三方渠道。</p></li>\n <li><p>然而，在GMV层面，拼多多的增速明显放缓。我们可以推算出：上个季度它的单季度GMV增速约为90%，本季度仅为50%；单季度ARPU肯定是下滑的。相比之下，天猫实体GMV的同比增速都达到了27%，也就是说，拼多多追赶淘宝/天猫的速度大幅减缓了。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>那么问题来了：为什么拼多多的用户持续高增长，而GMV增速大幅放缓？为什么它的客单价不升反降？这是公司的主动选择，还是撞上增长瓶颈的结果？更进一步说，过去四年拼多多的野蛮生长是否即将告一段落？2014-17年，京东曾经对淘系电商发起过凌厉攻势，并且一度自信地认为能够在三年内赶超淘系，却在2018年被再次甩开差距——同样的事情会不会发生在拼多多身上？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57566f1616309f66e1db2ace62d488b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\"></p>\n<p>这些问题没有那么容易回答，我们需要先理解2020年以来拼多多做了什么、打算做什么。让我先说说我的大致结论，分为如下三条：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>拼多多在流量端的优势是难以动摇的，它的社交/商品/休闲游戏三位一体的获客体系的竞争力毫无削弱。2020年的经济形势，促使更多消费者转向拼多多；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>方面的发力，也有助于养成用户习惯。这一点不需要有任何担心。</p></li>\n <li><p>从财报可以看出，上个季度拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少没有增加补贴力度（以补贴/GMV或补贴/收入为指标）；这可能是GMV增速放缓的主要原因。此外，在今年的618购物节，阿里、京东均投入重兵，而拼多多比较保守——归根结底，购物节这个舞台不太适合拼多多。所以，GMV的放缓与扣非净亏损的大幅收窄在同一时间发生。</p></li>\n <li><p>在产品迭代方面，拼多多的头脑非常清醒：不去迎合现在气势汹汹的直播电商潮流（非常正确！），而是大力发展拼小圈，以及强化店铺关注功能。这样，拼多多既能进一步巩固用户黏性，又能为品牌升级做好全面准备。既然拼多多的头脑是清醒的，它就不会衰落。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>下面展开讨论。</p>\n<p><b>首先，拼多多的获客/留客/拉回流体系，</b>依托于三个主要因素：微信传播的社交性和趣味性，低价爆款商品（大部分白牌+少部分大牌），以及应用内的休闲游戏玩法。上述“三位一体”在AAC/MAU/DAU/用户时长等多个层面赋予了拼多多巨大优势，而且优势至今尚未有衰减迹象。竞争对手无一能复制这样的优势——有人说，2020年二季度京喜小程序的MAU已经超过拼多多，但是我了解的情况并非如此。无论是京喜、淘宝特价版还是聚划算，在流量端都远远比不上拼多多。我知道，肯定会有人留言宣称京喜有多么强大，但这并非事实。</p>\n<p>2020年宏观经济的高度不确定性，提高了消费者的价格敏感性，促使他们更依赖于拼多多这样的平台。2017-19年，很多自封的“高端消费者”可能还会纯粹因为面子而故意不用拼多多，今年这样的人应该很少见了。现在拼多多大力发展农产品，包括蔬果、粮油、地方农货等，这些往往是消费频次较高的品类。总而言之，我预计拼多多的AAC/MAU仍将维持快速增长，直至触达大约10亿用户的上限，也就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>网民的总人数。</p>\n<p><b>其次，从财报看，拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少是没有增加。</b>这个季度，拼多多的销售费用为89亿人民币，同比增长50%，与单季度GMV增速大致相仿；销售费用与营业收入的比重降低至73%，是上市以来的最低水平——要知道，上个季度拼多多销售费用达到了营业收入的108%！拼多多完全可以无限制扩大“百亿补贴计划”，换取更多的GMV，但是它没有这么做。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28c90052ee7eaee47bf62d50685725e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>拼多多选择在二季度收紧补贴，可能受到了“史上最惨烈的618购物节”影响：京东、淘宝/天猫均在此投入重兵，把618打出了双十一的味道。事实上，拼多多从2019年才开始举办自己的618活动，这种以中高端品牌为主力的购物节从来不是它的主场。在618前后回避淘系和京东的兵锋，然后在三季度的传统“电商淡季”不声不响地打回来，或许是一种性价比更高的策略。</p>\n<p><b>再次，拼多多的产品迭代思路是正确的，能避免竞争对手犯过的错误。</b>2019年以来，直播电商成为了市场关注的风口，而拼多多对此没有很大兴趣。它推出了直播功能，但是只赋予较少的资源。事实上，直播电商根本不是一种新的“商业模式”，而只是一种促销形式；它与发券或满减没有本质区别。淘宝、抖音、快手发展直播电商各有目的：淘宝是为了占领用户时长，抖音和快手则是以直播作为进军电商交易的工具。显然，拼多多不存在上述目的，也就不需要大力发展直播电商。</p>\n<p>拼多多今年最重要的新增功能是拼小圈，它是迄今唯一一个成功的“电商社交”平台。在长期，它还能降低拼多多对微信的依赖度。这个功能非常有趣，秉承了拼多多一贯的“游乐场风格”。与此同时，对店铺关注功能的强化也值得注意：在历史上，拼多多以单品SKU运营为主，店铺运营并非重点；但是要进军中高端品牌电商，就必须强调店铺运营。看样子，拼多多完全知道自己要做什么、该做什么，产品迭代走在正确的道路上，那就没有什么真正值得担心的了。</p>\n<p>综上所述，这个季度的财报在我看来是喜忧参半，但是喜的因素是长期的，而忧的因素是短期的。市场最担心的是拼多多的“高增长期”会不会告一段落，进入“平稳增长”的轨道，就像当年的京东那样——这个担心是不必要的。宏观经济、行业态势和自身产品迭代全部站在拼多多一边，而它的管理层又保持着清醒的头脑。不过，市场似乎将这份财报理解为负面，所以盘前股价已经下跌10%之多。这大概是因为拼多多此前的涨幅过于凶猛，市场过早地兑现了太多的正面预期。市场情绪就像钟摆，总是在过度悲观和过度乐观之间摆来摆去，就算市值达到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的规模也不能例外。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7a25cafd2c68cfbb62345450e594c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"414\"></p>\n<p>拼多多终究会面临瓶颈期，与淘系、京东两强展开比现在还要激烈的血与火的战役——但不是现在，而是2021年下半年或2022年。到了那时，拼多多的GMV将无限逼近京东，并达到淘系的1/4甚至1/3；它急需攻克更多的领地，提升ARPU和货币化率。所以，它将对阿里核心的服装及美妆品类，以及京东核心的3C品类展开猛攻。那场战役的规模和激烈性，将会使今天的“百亿补贴”相形见绌。这将是一场非常漫长的战争，前后花费的时间或许会超过十年，而我们现在连一半的路程都还没有走完。接下来的好戏还很多，至少在目前，势头还是站在拼多多这一边。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多的凌厉攻势是否会告一段落？应该不会</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多的凌厉攻势是否会告一段落？应该不会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1021834551\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a23ff01e42d474fbc5f993ee27525e2);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">互联网怪盗团 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-21 20:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.32亿人，而月活用户(MAU)增长至5.69亿人。</p>\n<p>这份财报显然是喜忧参半的，也注定会引发新一轮的争议，因为看多和看空的人都能找到足够的、有说服力的论据：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>在用户层面，仅仅一个季度之内，拼多多就新增了5510万年活买家，以及8140万月活用户——这简直是不可思议的壮举。在同一个季度之内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>仅新增了3000万年活买家，淘宝/天猫也仅新增了1600万年活买家；淘宝特价版在获得大量推广资源之后，MAU达到了4000万，仍然远低于拼多多在一个季度内新增的MAU。注意，拼多多公布的MAU仅包括自身APP，不包括小程序等第三方渠道。</p></li>\n <li><p>然而，在GMV层面，拼多多的增速明显放缓。我们可以推算出：上个季度它的单季度GMV增速约为90%，本季度仅为50%；单季度ARPU肯定是下滑的。相比之下，天猫实体GMV的同比增速都达到了27%，也就是说，拼多多追赶淘宝/天猫的速度大幅减缓了。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>那么问题来了：为什么拼多多的用户持续高增长，而GMV增速大幅放缓？为什么它的客单价不升反降？这是公司的主动选择，还是撞上增长瓶颈的结果？更进一步说，过去四年拼多多的野蛮生长是否即将告一段落？2014-17年，京东曾经对淘系电商发起过凌厉攻势，并且一度自信地认为能够在三年内赶超淘系，却在2018年被再次甩开差距——同样的事情会不会发生在拼多多身上？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57566f1616309f66e1db2ace62d488b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\"></p>\n<p>这些问题没有那么容易回答，我们需要先理解2020年以来拼多多做了什么、打算做什么。让我先说说我的大致结论，分为如下三条：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>拼多多在流量端的优势是难以动摇的，它的社交/商品/休闲游戏三位一体的获客体系的竞争力毫无削弱。2020年的经济形势，促使更多消费者转向拼多多；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>方面的发力，也有助于养成用户习惯。这一点不需要有任何担心。</p></li>\n <li><p>从财报可以看出，上个季度拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少没有增加补贴力度（以补贴/GMV或补贴/收入为指标）；这可能是GMV增速放缓的主要原因。此外，在今年的618购物节，阿里、京东均投入重兵，而拼多多比较保守——归根结底，购物节这个舞台不太适合拼多多。所以，GMV的放缓与扣非净亏损的大幅收窄在同一时间发生。</p></li>\n <li><p>在产品迭代方面，拼多多的头脑非常清醒：不去迎合现在气势汹汹的直播电商潮流（非常正确！），而是大力发展拼小圈，以及强化店铺关注功能。这样，拼多多既能进一步巩固用户黏性，又能为品牌升级做好全面准备。既然拼多多的头脑是清醒的，它就不会衰落。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>下面展开讨论。</p>\n<p><b>首先，拼多多的获客/留客/拉回流体系，</b>依托于三个主要因素：微信传播的社交性和趣味性，低价爆款商品（大部分白牌+少部分大牌），以及应用内的休闲游戏玩法。上述“三位一体”在AAC/MAU/DAU/用户时长等多个层面赋予了拼多多巨大优势，而且优势至今尚未有衰减迹象。竞争对手无一能复制这样的优势——有人说，2020年二季度京喜小程序的MAU已经超过拼多多，但是我了解的情况并非如此。无论是京喜、淘宝特价版还是聚划算，在流量端都远远比不上拼多多。我知道，肯定会有人留言宣称京喜有多么强大，但这并非事实。</p>\n<p>2020年宏观经济的高度不确定性，提高了消费者的价格敏感性，促使他们更依赖于拼多多这样的平台。2017-19年，很多自封的“高端消费者”可能还会纯粹因为面子而故意不用拼多多，今年这样的人应该很少见了。现在拼多多大力发展农产品，包括蔬果、粮油、地方农货等，这些往往是消费频次较高的品类。总而言之，我预计拼多多的AAC/MAU仍将维持快速增长，直至触达大约10亿用户的上限，也就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>网民的总人数。</p>\n<p><b>其次，从财报看，拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少是没有增加。</b>这个季度，拼多多的销售费用为89亿人民币，同比增长50%，与单季度GMV增速大致相仿；销售费用与营业收入的比重降低至73%，是上市以来的最低水平——要知道，上个季度拼多多销售费用达到了营业收入的108%！拼多多完全可以无限制扩大“百亿补贴计划”，换取更多的GMV，但是它没有这么做。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28c90052ee7eaee47bf62d50685725e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>拼多多选择在二季度收紧补贴，可能受到了“史上最惨烈的618购物节”影响：京东、淘宝/天猫均在此投入重兵，把618打出了双十一的味道。事实上，拼多多从2019年才开始举办自己的618活动，这种以中高端品牌为主力的购物节从来不是它的主场。在618前后回避淘系和京东的兵锋，然后在三季度的传统“电商淡季”不声不响地打回来，或许是一种性价比更高的策略。</p>\n<p><b>再次，拼多多的产品迭代思路是正确的，能避免竞争对手犯过的错误。</b>2019年以来，直播电商成为了市场关注的风口，而拼多多对此没有很大兴趣。它推出了直播功能，但是只赋予较少的资源。事实上，直播电商根本不是一种新的“商业模式”，而只是一种促销形式；它与发券或满减没有本质区别。淘宝、抖音、快手发展直播电商各有目的：淘宝是为了占领用户时长，抖音和快手则是以直播作为进军电商交易的工具。显然，拼多多不存在上述目的，也就不需要大力发展直播电商。</p>\n<p>拼多多今年最重要的新增功能是拼小圈，它是迄今唯一一个成功的“电商社交”平台。在长期，它还能降低拼多多对微信的依赖度。这个功能非常有趣，秉承了拼多多一贯的“游乐场风格”。与此同时，对店铺关注功能的强化也值得注意：在历史上，拼多多以单品SKU运营为主，店铺运营并非重点；但是要进军中高端品牌电商，就必须强调店铺运营。看样子，拼多多完全知道自己要做什么、该做什么，产品迭代走在正确的道路上，那就没有什么真正值得担心的了。</p>\n<p>综上所述，这个季度的财报在我看来是喜忧参半，但是喜的因素是长期的，而忧的因素是短期的。市场最担心的是拼多多的“高增长期”会不会告一段落，进入“平稳增长”的轨道，就像当年的京东那样——这个担心是不必要的。宏观经济、行业态势和自身产品迭代全部站在拼多多一边，而它的管理层又保持着清醒的头脑。不过，市场似乎将这份财报理解为负面，所以盘前股价已经下跌10%之多。这大概是因为拼多多此前的涨幅过于凶猛，市场过早地兑现了太多的正面预期。市场情绪就像钟摆，总是在过度悲观和过度乐观之间摆来摆去，就算市值达到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的规模也不能例外。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7a25cafd2c68cfbb62345450e594c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"414\"></p>\n<p>拼多多终究会面临瓶颈期，与淘系、京东两强展开比现在还要激烈的血与火的战役——但不是现在，而是2021年下半年或2022年。到了那时，拼多多的GMV将无限逼近京东，并达到淘系的1/4甚至1/3；它急需攻克更多的领地，提升ARPU和货币化率。所以，它将对阿里核心的服装及美妆品类，以及京东核心的3C品类展开猛攻。那场战役的规模和激烈性，将会使今天的“百亿补贴”相形见绌。这将是一场非常漫长的战争，前后花费的时间或许会超过十年，而我们现在连一半的路程都还没有走完。接下来的好戏还很多，至少在目前，势头还是站在拼多多这一边。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a495ea6a2b99a896e87eba4430367e","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156110538","content_text":"拼多多于8月21日晚公布了2020年第二季度财报：过去12个月的GMV同比增长79%（由此可推断出单季度GMV同比增长约50%）；营业收入增长67%；扣非净亏损大幅收窄；年活买家(AAC)增长至6.32亿人，而月活用户(MAU)增长至5.69亿人。\n这份财报显然是喜忧参半的，也注定会引发新一轮的争议，因为看多和看空的人都能找到足够的、有说服力的论据：\n\n在用户层面，仅仅一个季度之内，拼多多就新增了5510万年活买家，以及8140万月活用户——这简直是不可思议的壮举。在同一个季度之内，京东仅新增了3000万年活买家，淘宝/天猫也仅新增了1600万年活买家；淘宝特价版在获得大量推广资源之后，MAU达到了4000万，仍然远低于拼多多在一个季度内新增的MAU。注意，拼多多公布的MAU仅包括自身APP，不包括小程序等第三方渠道。\n然而，在GMV层面，拼多多的增速明显放缓。我们可以推算出：上个季度它的单季度GMV增速约为90%，本季度仅为50%；单季度ARPU肯定是下滑的。相比之下，天猫实体GMV的同比增速都达到了27%，也就是说，拼多多追赶淘宝/天猫的速度大幅减缓了。\n\n那么问题来了：为什么拼多多的用户持续高增长，而GMV增速大幅放缓？为什么它的客单价不升反降？这是公司的主动选择，还是撞上增长瓶颈的结果？更进一步说，过去四年拼多多的野蛮生长是否即将告一段落？2014-17年，京东曾经对淘系电商发起过凌厉攻势，并且一度自信地认为能够在三年内赶超淘系，却在2018年被再次甩开差距——同样的事情会不会发生在拼多多身上？\n\n这些问题没有那么容易回答，我们需要先理解2020年以来拼多多做了什么、打算做什么。让我先说说我的大致结论，分为如下三条：\n\n拼多多在流量端的优势是难以动摇的，它的社交/商品/休闲游戏三位一体的获客体系的竞争力毫无削弱。2020年的经济形势，促使更多消费者转向拼多多；在农产品方面的发力，也有助于养成用户习惯。这一点不需要有任何担心。\n从财报可以看出，上个季度拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少没有增加补贴力度（以补贴/GMV或补贴/收入为指标）；这可能是GMV增速放缓的主要原因。此外，在今年的618购物节，阿里、京东均投入重兵，而拼多多比较保守——归根结底，购物节这个舞台不太适合拼多多。所以，GMV的放缓与扣非净亏损的大幅收窄在同一时间发生。\n在产品迭代方面，拼多多的头脑非常清醒：不去迎合现在气势汹汹的直播电商潮流（非常正确！），而是大力发展拼小圈，以及强化店铺关注功能。这样，拼多多既能进一步巩固用户黏性，又能为品牌升级做好全面准备。既然拼多多的头脑是清醒的，它就不会衰落。\n\n下面展开讨论。\n首先，拼多多的获客/留客/拉回流体系，依托于三个主要因素：微信传播的社交性和趣味性，低价爆款商品（大部分白牌+少部分大牌），以及应用内的休闲游戏玩法。上述“三位一体”在AAC/MAU/DAU/用户时长等多个层面赋予了拼多多巨大优势，而且优势至今尚未有衰减迹象。竞争对手无一能复制这样的优势——有人说，2020年二季度京喜小程序的MAU已经超过拼多多，但是我了解的情况并非如此。无论是京喜、淘宝特价版还是聚划算，在流量端都远远比不上拼多多。我知道，肯定会有人留言宣称京喜有多么强大，但这并非事实。\n2020年宏观经济的高度不确定性，提高了消费者的价格敏感性，促使他们更依赖于拼多多这样的平台。2017-19年，很多自封的“高端消费者”可能还会纯粹因为面子而故意不用拼多多，今年这样的人应该很少见了。现在拼多多大力发展农产品，包括蔬果、粮油、地方农货等，这些往往是消费频次较高的品类。总而言之，我预计拼多多的AAC/MAU仍将维持快速增长，直至触达大约10亿用户的上限，也就是中国移动网民的总人数。\n其次，从财报看，拼多多似乎削减了补贴力度，至少是没有增加。这个季度，拼多多的销售费用为89亿人民币，同比增长50%，与单季度GMV增速大致相仿；销售费用与营业收入的比重降低至73%，是上市以来的最低水平——要知道，上个季度拼多多销售费用达到了营业收入的108%！拼多多完全可以无限制扩大“百亿补贴计划”，换取更多的GMV，但是它没有这么做。\n\n拼多多选择在二季度收紧补贴，可能受到了“史上最惨烈的618购物节”影响：京东、淘宝/天猫均在此投入重兵，把618打出了双十一的味道。事实上，拼多多从2019年才开始举办自己的618活动，这种以中高端品牌为主力的购物节从来不是它的主场。在618前后回避淘系和京东的兵锋，然后在三季度的传统“电商淡季”不声不响地打回来，或许是一种性价比更高的策略。\n再次，拼多多的产品迭代思路是正确的，能避免竞争对手犯过的错误。2019年以来，直播电商成为了市场关注的风口，而拼多多对此没有很大兴趣。它推出了直播功能，但是只赋予较少的资源。事实上，直播电商根本不是一种新的“商业模式”，而只是一种促销形式；它与发券或满减没有本质区别。淘宝、抖音、快手发展直播电商各有目的：淘宝是为了占领用户时长，抖音和快手则是以直播作为进军电商交易的工具。显然，拼多多不存在上述目的，也就不需要大力发展直播电商。\n拼多多今年最重要的新增功能是拼小圈，它是迄今唯一一个成功的“电商社交”平台。在长期，它还能降低拼多多对微信的依赖度。这个功能非常有趣，秉承了拼多多一贯的“游乐场风格”。与此同时，对店铺关注功能的强化也值得注意：在历史上，拼多多以单品SKU运营为主，店铺运营并非重点；但是要进军中高端品牌电商，就必须强调店铺运营。看样子，拼多多完全知道自己要做什么、该做什么，产品迭代走在正确的道路上，那就没有什么真正值得担心的了。\n综上所述，这个季度的财报在我看来是喜忧参半，但是喜的因素是长期的，而忧的因素是短期的。市场最担心的是拼多多的“高增长期”会不会告一段落，进入“平稳增长”的轨道，就像当年的京东那样——这个担心是不必要的。宏观经济、行业态势和自身产品迭代全部站在拼多多一边，而它的管理层又保持着清醒的头脑。不过，市场似乎将这份财报理解为负面，所以盘前股价已经下跌10%之多。这大概是因为拼多多此前的涨幅过于凶猛，市场过早地兑现了太多的正面预期。市场情绪就像钟摆，总是在过度悲观和过度乐观之间摆来摆去，就算市值达到阿里巴巴、腾讯的规模也不能例外。\n\n拼多多终究会面临瓶颈期，与淘系、京东两强展开比现在还要激烈的血与火的战役——但不是现在，而是2021年下半年或2022年。到了那时，拼多多的GMV将无限逼近京东，并达到淘系的1/4甚至1/3；它急需攻克更多的领地，提升ARPU和货币化率。所以，它将对阿里核心的服装及美妆品类，以及京东核心的3C品类展开猛攻。那场战役的规模和激烈性，将会使今天的“百亿补贴”相形见绌。这将是一场非常漫长的战争，前后花费的时间或许会超过十年，而我们现在连一半的路程都还没有走完。接下来的好戏还很多，至少在目前，势头还是站在拼多多这一边。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997197729,"gmtCreate":1567178370761,"gmtModify":1704715920206,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"刚止损你就涨涨涨😠","listText":"刚止损你就涨涨涨😠","text":"刚止损你就涨涨涨😠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/997197729","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995402839,"gmtCreate":1566260538121,"gmtModify":1704713949947,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]","listText":"真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]","text":"真是醉了小米的割法，活活被连根拔起[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995402839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995120697,"gmtCreate":1565879089819,"gmtModify":1704713369804,"author":{"id":"3493349808949748","authorId":"3493349808949748","name":"鱼月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493349808949748","idStr":"3493349808949748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你是怎么回事？","listText":"你是怎么回事？","text":"你是怎么回事？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995120697","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}