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小强尼虎虎生威
三笔期权足以,所有or一无所有
IP属地:浙江
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小强尼虎虎生威
09-24
我开仓了3手
$TLT 20241018 96.0 CALL$
,降息周期TLT长期趋势不改,已经跌到合理价位了
小强尼虎虎生威
09-12
我开仓了15.0组
$博通 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 130.0/PUT 135.0$
,看不到反转理由,赌一下死猫跳
小强尼虎虎生威
09-12
我开仓了10.0组
$英伟达 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 100.0/PUT 95.0$
,看看是不是死猫跳
小强尼虎虎生威
09-12
我开仓了10手
$IOT 20240920 42.5 PUT$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
小强尼虎虎生威
09-11
我开仓了1.0组
$博通 VERTICAL 240913 CALL 149.0/CALL 144.0$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
小强尼虎虎生威
08-14
我开仓了
$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$
,回踩这波下跌黄金分位开仓,期待进一步利空消息的推出。止损272,止盈167,5:1的盈亏比,不等开盘了,盘前价格就很合适。
小强尼虎虎生威
08-09
我开仓了
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
,继续
小强尼虎虎生威
08-09
我开仓了
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
,动荡期大饼作为风险资产没理由涨,警惕死猫跳。止损136,暂不设止盈
小强尼虎虎生威
08-07
我平仓了
$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF(UVXY)$
,这两天有点过于风平浪静了,先暂时性止盈,等反抽后继续
小强尼虎虎生威
08-05
我开仓了
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
,疫情以来历史上vix第二高点,不发生金融危机没理由维持在60。确定性机会,风险等同美国国债出问题
小强尼虎虎生威
07-16
I opened 2 lot(s)
$BIDU 20240816 85.0 CALL$
,Im all-in
小强尼虎虎生威
07-15
我开仓了
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
,SMCI早盘洗盘,继续看到970破洗盘高点,买不了期权跟一手正股
小强尼虎虎生威
07-15
我开仓了2手
$NVDA 20240726 140.0 CALL$
,继续补多头策略,找补涨。看大哥能不能借着大好行情补个双头
小强尼虎虎生威
07-15
我开仓了2手
$MU 20240726 143.0 CALL$
,确认大盘强势,转入多头策略,MU是比较不错的芯片补涨标的,1小时K已经转多
小强尼虎虎生威
07-15
我平仓了4手
$QCOM 20240719 195.0 PUT$
,平完了,美股又回到多头模式了,真强啊
小强尼虎虎生威
07-15
我平仓了3手
$MU 20240719 127.0 PUT$
,平完了,美股又回到多头模式了,真强啊,调整就用了1天
小强尼虎虎生威
07-12
我开仓了3手
$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$
,百度也接回来。想了一下逻辑还是没问题,不纠结到底是中枢调整还是走二段了。看看周末有没有消息发酵
小强尼虎虎生威
07-12
我开仓了4手
$QCOM 20240719 195.0 PUT$
,QCOM也接回来,继续验证昨天大阴线的有效性。
小强尼虎虎生威
07-12
我平仓了3手
$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$
,平了,10分钟转小时级别调整了。哎美股太强,中概分不到一点
小强尼虎虎生威
07-12
我开仓了3手
$MU 20240719 127.0 PUT$
,市场反抽过于乐观了,昨天的大阴线是对美联储降息的方向验证,接下来每一次降息预期都是利空
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20240920 130.0 PUT SELL 1 | AVGO 20240920 135.0 PUT BUY 1\">$博通 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 130.0/PUT 135.0$ </a>,看不到反转理由,赌一下死猫跳","listText":"我开仓了15.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20240920 130.0 PUT SELL 1 | AVGO 20240920 135.0 PUT BUY 1\">$博通 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 130.0/PUT 135.0$ </a>,看不到反转理由,赌一下死猫跳","text":"我开仓了15.0组$博通 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 130.0/PUT 135.0$ ,看不到反转理由,赌一下死猫跳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348311972753776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348341974139144,"gmtCreate":1726078058345,"gmtModify":1726093859469,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了10.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240920 95.0 PUT SELL 1 | NVDA 20240920 100.0 PUT BUY 1\">$英伟达 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 100.0/PUT 95.0$ </a>,看看是不是死猫跳","listText":"我开仓了10.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240920 95.0 PUT SELL 1 | NVDA 20240920 100.0 PUT BUY 1\">$英伟达 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 100.0/PUT 95.0$ </a>,看看是不是死猫跳","text":"我开仓了10.0组$英伟达 VERTICAL 240920 PUT 100.0/PUT 95.0$ ,看看是不是死猫跳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348341974139144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348338428633264,"gmtCreate":1726077113196,"gmtModify":1730904337929,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IOT 20240920 42.5 PUT\">$IOT 20240920 42.5 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IOT 20240920 42.5 PUT\">$IOT 20240920 42.5 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了10手$IOT 20240920 42.5 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348338428633264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348014459146288,"gmtCreate":1725986215914,"gmtModify":1725988293946,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20240913 144.0 CALL SELL 1 | AVGO 20240913 149.0 CALL BUY 1\">$博通 VERTICAL 240913 CALL 149.0/CALL 144.0$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了1.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20240913 144.0 CALL SELL 1 | AVGO 20240913 149.0 CALL BUY 1\">$博通 VERTICAL 240913 CALL 149.0/CALL 144.0$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了1.0组$博通 VERTICAL 240913 CALL 149.0/CALL 144.0$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348014459146288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338349351624984,"gmtCreate":1723642066058,"gmtModify":1724073776552,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ </a>,回踩这波下跌黄金分位开仓,期待进一步利空消息的推出。止损272,止盈167,5:1的盈亏比,不等开盘了,盘前价格就很合适。","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, 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大胆的空头策略,祝你好运"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336571479957936,"gmtCreate":1723210232820,"gmtModify":1723645810215,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,继续","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,继续","text":"我开仓了$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL\">$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$ </a>,平了,10分钟转小时级别调整了。哎美股太强,中概分不到一点","listText":"我平仓了3手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL\">$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$ </a>,平了,10分钟转小时级别调整了。哎美股太强,中概分不到一点","text":"我平仓了3手$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20240719 127.0 PUT\">$MU 20240719 127.0 PUT$ </a>,市场反抽过于乐观了,昨天的大阴线是对美联储降息的方向验证,接下来每一次降息预期都是利空","listText":"我开仓了3手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20240719 127.0 PUT\">$MU 20240719 127.0 PUT$ </a>,市场反抽过于乐观了,昨天的大阴线是对美联储降息的方向验证,接下来每一次降息预期都是利空","text":"我开仓了3手$MU 20240719 127.0 PUT$ ,市场反抽过于乐观了,昨天的大阴线是对美联储降息的方向验证,接下来每一次降息预期都是利空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326705222664336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":932694436,"gmtCreate":1572873860125,"gmtModify":1704725001172,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上交所换牛了兄弟们!!!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","listText":"上交所换牛了兄弟们!!!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a 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做不了期权很伤心。 不多说,先上图吧,应该都算比较经典的支撑线了。 1. 星巴克 11月2号的财报发布,在寒冬中超预期实现增长。目前的开店增速,配合涨价,是一轮行情的起爆点。 消息面上,在下一季度财报到来前基本都是发酵期。且冬季向来是咖啡的主场,业绩不会有太大的问题所以也不存在负预期。估摸着明年4-5月前都不存在太大的消息面问题。考虑到整体大环境因素,可能行情提早结束,但至少会筑一个双顶,所以保守看多到68,激进的做法是不破线一直拿,止损在缺口下方3%差不多57的样子 2. 蔚来汽车 也是有持续发酵的消息面支撑,ES9车型确实漂亮,也算是拿出了成绩。在下轮成绩单见光死之前不会有任何问题。 走一个底部箱体,并且大概率是要突破的。保守看多到8块,可能突破。 希望等等我的工资入市。。。 $蔚来(NIO)$ $星巴克(SBUX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$","listText":"先说明,本人还没入金。先用模拟盘随便试水,下个月工资再入市。 做不了期权很伤心。 不多说,先上图吧,应该都算比较经典的支撑线了。 1. 星巴克 11月2号的财报发布,在寒冬中超预期实现增长。目前的开店增速,配合涨价,是一轮行情的起爆点。 消息面上,在下一季度财报到来前基本都是发酵期。且冬季向来是咖啡的主场,业绩不会有太大的问题所以也不存在负预期。估摸着明年4-5月前都不存在太大的消息面问题。考虑到整体大环境因素,可能行情提早结束,但至少会筑一个双顶,所以保守看多到68,激进的做法是不破线一直拿,止损在缺口下方3%差不多57的样子 2. 蔚来汽车 也是有持续发酵的消息面支撑,ES9车型确实漂亮,也算是拿出了成绩。在下轮成绩单见光死之前不会有任何问题。 走一个底部箱体,并且大概率是要突破的。保守看多到8块,可能突破。 希望等等我的工资入市。。。 $蔚来(NIO)$ $星巴克(SBUX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$","text":"先说明,本人还没入金。先用模拟盘随便试水,下个月工资再入市。 做不了期权很伤心。 不多说,先上图吧,应该都算比较经典的支撑线了。 1. 星巴克 11月2号的财报发布,在寒冬中超预期实现增长。目前的开店增速,配合涨价,是一轮行情的起爆点。 消息面上,在下一季度财报到来前基本都是发酵期。且冬季向来是咖啡的主场,业绩不会有太大的问题所以也不存在负预期。估摸着明年4-5月前都不存在太大的消息面问题。考虑到整体大环境因素,可能行情提早结束,但至少会筑一个双顶,所以保守看多到68,激进的做法是不破线一直拿,止损在缺口下方3%差不多57的样子 2. 蔚来汽车 也是有持续发酵的消息面支撑,ES9车型确实漂亮,也算是拿出了成绩。在下轮成绩单见光死之前不会有任何问题。 走一个底部箱体,并且大概率是要突破的。保守看多到8块,可能突破。 希望等等我的工资入市。。。 $蔚来(NIO)$ $星巴克(SBUX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 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$腾讯控股(00700)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $蔚来(NIO)$ 人,只要肯努力,一切都会有的。我在股市奋斗十年,如今在深圳,北京,香港,上海各有一套房,我一不靠父母,而不靠朋友,都是自己一个人努力想象出来的","listText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $蔚来(NIO)$ 人,只要肯努力,一切都会有的。我在股市奋斗十年,如今在深圳,北京,香港,上海各有一套房,我一不靠父母,而不靠朋友,都是自己一个人努力想象出来的","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $蔚来(NIO)$ 人,只要肯努力,一切都会有的。我在股市奋斗十年,如今在深圳,北京,香港,上海各有一套房,我一不靠父母,而不靠朋友,都是自己一个人努力想象出来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/909927214","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3517309723824316","authorId":"3517309723824316","name":"轩辕帝枭","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3517309723824316","authorIdStr":"3517309723824316"},"content":"原来是各有两套,赔掉一半。你的想象力还是挺接地气,不像有些人,天天只往好处想","text":"原来是各有两套,赔掉一半。你的想象力还是挺接地气,不像有些人,天天只往好处想","html":"原来是各有两套,赔掉一半。你的想象力还是挺接地气,不像有些人,天天只往好处想"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323593159778368,"gmtCreate":1720024411470,"gmtModify":1720493946371,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240712 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240712 220.0 CALL$ </a>,大饼在支撑位了加上最近有利好支持,节前开一手等好消息。最近coin走势相对其他几家强一些,220止损位,1小时周期趋势","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240712 220.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240712 220.0 CALL$ </a>,大饼在支撑位了加上最近有利好支持,节前开一手等好消息。最近coin走势相对其他几家强一些,220止损位,1小时周期趋势","text":"我开仓了1手$COIN 20240712 220.0 CALL$ ,大饼在支撑位了加上最近有利好支持,节前开一手等好消息。最近coin走势相对其他几家强一些,220止损位,1小时周期趋势","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323593159778368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579612413176972","authorId":"3579612413176972","name":"Yonny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231a2860cddd1bf2ffc3c16938f4673d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579612413176972","authorIdStr":"3579612413176972"},"content":"牛啊,居然是短线选手 [强]","text":"牛啊,居然是短线选手 [强]","html":"牛啊,居然是短线选手 [强]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302024997118008,"gmtCreate":1714742654181,"gmtModify":1714742656037,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 数据好,说明经济强劲,美股升;数据不好,要降息,美股也升。吴迪了要,事出反常必有妖!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 数据好,说明经济强劲,美股升;数据不好,要降息,美股也升。吴迪了要,事出反常必有妖!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 数据好,说明经济强劲,美股升;数据不好,要降息,美股也升。吴迪了要,事出反常必有妖!$标普500ETF(SPY)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302024997118008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"content":"美股妖了几十年了,不要用缅A的思路看美股","text":"美股妖了几十年了,不要用缅A的思路看美股","html":"美股妖了几十年了,不要用缅A的思路看美股"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326475105431856,"gmtCreate":1720707499859,"gmtModify":1721206783949,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL\">$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$ </a>,10分钟级别回调,整体看还没到105-110的目标价区间,选择接回一部分","listText":"我开仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL\">$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$ </a>,10分钟级别回调,整体看还没到105-110的目标价区间,选择接回一部分","text":"我开仓了2手$BIDU 20240719 105.0 CALL$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240712 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20240712 240.0 PUT$ </a>,昨天的上涨已经是背驰了,加上之前佩洛西减持的利空。可以赌一波小时级别的回调,回调目标价位在235左右。当然也可能盘整一波,不过盈亏比划算可以试试","listText":"我开仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240712 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20240712 240.0 PUT$ </a>,昨天的上涨已经是背驰了,加上之前佩洛西减持的利空。可以赌一波小时级别的回调,回调目标价位在235左右。当然也可能盘整一波,不过盈亏比划算可以试试","text":"我开仓了2手$TSLA 20240712 240.0 PUT$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"终于……$微软(MSFT)$$苹果(AAPL)$$亚马逊(AMZN)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$蔚来(NIO)$$腾讯控股(00700)$$小米集团-W(01810)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e3f8132ab0975eeb8c72f189073350","width":"750","height":"890"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991188807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3521037627077998","authorId":"3521037627077998","name":"Beckybecky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d53307dbede2651680d24ca9219f37","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3521037627077998","authorIdStr":"3521037627077998"},"content":"降息股市不是应该升吗","text":"降息股市不是应该升吗","html":"降息股市不是应该升吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325331306266872,"gmtCreate":1720455790388,"gmtModify":1722677398998,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a 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年化8%,这不比货币基金稳?[贱笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8f9d004a3dec50c88e273aaa9378e8","width":"750","height":"1789"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601702287","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3543927039533875","authorId":"3543927039533875","name":"韭菜的国际化之路","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57357e1a39184e7078afadbb488c01bf","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3543927039533875","authorIdStr":"3543927039533875"},"content":"疯了吧,买20块的看跌?","text":"疯了吧,买20块的看跌?","html":"疯了吧,买20块的看跌?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650625386,"gmtCreate":1679203111646,"gmtModify":1679203114202,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$ </a>make frc great again","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$ </a>make frc great again","text":"$第一共和银行(FRC)$ make frc great again","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f828e21ea4dddb93f323a0479c364262","width":"1080","height":"1641"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650625386","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499945372320229","authorId":"3499945372320229","name":"爱斯基摩昆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b2708b477bf69b2e12871b5f411a07","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499945372320229","authorIdStr":"3499945372320229"},"content":"哪个网站发的?","text":"哪个网站发的?","html":"哪个网站发的?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":911342866,"gmtCreate":1578054226455,"gmtModify":1704336875263,"author":{"id":"3493018409601861","authorId":"3493018409601861","name":"小强尼虎虎生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ff8ec285d8aea0f4eb683fe561ec1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493018409601861","authorIdStr":"3493018409601861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"刚看完自己的B站年度报告,很惊讶自己从当年那个看小破站追番的人一点点蜕变到现在看汉服、王者、旅行vlog的2.8次元,缺依然没感觉小破站有一丝变化。说到调性,可能小破站本身就是一种调性,就像一个你钟爱的主厨,你吃的就是chief special by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>","listText":"刚看完自己的B站年度报告,很惊讶自己从当年那个看小破站追番的人一点点蜕变到现在看汉服、王者、旅行vlog的2.8次元,缺依然没感觉小破站有一丝变化。说到调性,可能小破站本身就是一种调性,就像一个你钟爱的主厨,你吃的就是chief special by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>","text":"刚看完自己的B站年度报告,很惊讶自己从当年那个看小破站追番的人一点点蜕变到现在看汉服、王者、旅行vlog的2.8次元,缺依然没感觉小破站有一丝变化。说到调性,可能小破站本身就是一种调性,就像一个你钟爱的主厨,你吃的就是chief special by $哔哩哔哩(BILI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911342866","repostId":"1175519089","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175519089","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"国金证券传媒与互联网研究团队的公众号。我们是活跃在互联网、传媒娱乐、信息技术市场上的掘金怪盗团,专门寻找宝物,也就是优秀的上市公司或非上市公司。欢迎投资者、业内人士和上市公司与我们联系。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"互联网怪盗团","id":"1093891755","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a468bceacf4427aa893bbe927a9eb89"},"pubTimestamp":1578014577,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175519089?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-01-03 09:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"B站正在做一件前无古人的事情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175519089","media":"互联网怪盗团","summary":"从2019年下半年起,B站$(BILI)$就在做一件前无古人的事情:既要大幅度扩张用户基数,又要保持二次元和Z世代社区的调性。它希望在未来几年内,将MAU(月活用户)扩张到2亿以上,将营业收入扩张到1","content":"<p>从2019年下半年起,B站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$(BILI)$</a>就在做一件前无古人的事情:既要大幅度扩张用户基数,又要保持二次元和Z世代社区的调性。它希望在未来几年内,将MAU(月活用户)扩张到2亿以上,将营业收入扩张到100亿人民币以上;与此同时,它仍需保持“中国最佳”的内容社区调性,以及活跃而忠诚的核心用户群体。</p>\n<p>上述目标看上去自相矛盾。事实上,以前有很多人尝试过,可惜都不太成功。“用户基数”和“垂直调性”似乎是天然互斥的——你的用户基数越大,用户调性就越是庞杂,就越无法聚焦于垂直品类,也越难以维持良好的社区调性。三大视频平台的用户基数均在B站的2-3倍以上,但是没人会认为三大视频平台有什么调性(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>稍微有一点吧);微信的用户是全国第一,但是没人会认为微信有什么调性。快手和抖音在发展初期很有调性——前者是“老铁集散地”,后者是“潮人集中营”;但是随着用户基数的剧增,它们都逐渐变成了全民应用,虽然调性仍然存在,却正在不断冲淡。</p>\n<p>可能有些人不明白什么是“调性”。下面是本怪盗团团长的个人见解:“调性”就是在用户心目中把你和别人区分开的东西;“调性”就是用户对你的刻板印象;“调性”就是文化、就是区分度、就是作者风格。王家卫的电影很有调性,马尔克斯的小说很有调性,B站的PUGC很有调性。如果有一天,用户无法在短时间内区分B站/爱奇艺,或者B站/抖音,或者B站/快手,那么B站就丧失调性了。这就是我们说“三大视频平台没有调性”的原因——它们播放着一样的内容、采取一样的流量分配模式、连前端界面都很相似。同样,你也可以理解为什么微信没有调性——微信就是全体中国互联网用户,全体用户不可能有什么特别的调性(都是人?)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafbbfd8e973890d0c4d0a8a6197699a\"></p>\n<p><span>(作为JRPG,P5很有调性,而DQ11就不太有调性)</span></p>\n<p>不要误会,“调性”不一定是什么不食人间烟火的东西。“调性”可以很赚钱。快手老铁们一边弹吉他一边直播生吃大肥肉,已经赚到了几百亿打赏;FGO用登峰造极的人设和巧夺天工的数据留住粉丝的心,每年都能赚到几十亿流水。问题在于,在很多人心目中,用户基数的增加、商业变现的深入,必然会导致调性的损失或者消失。那么,B站能是例外吗?</p>\n<p>从理论上讲,在“用户基数扩大”“营业收入剧增”的同时,是有可能做到“社区调性不损失”的。然而,那将是一个非常艰难的过程,像走钢丝一样艰难。本怪盗团团长试图解释一下其中的逻辑:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>无论用户基数多大,如果能让用户根据兴趣爱好、社交关系、性格、地理位置等,形成若干个互不干扰的“小圈子”,那么社区调性就可以保持住。这样,B站在宏观上是一个大型视频平台,在微观上则是无数个垂直平台。</p></li>\n <li><p>上述做法的难点在于:对应用界面、推荐算法、社区运营的要求极高。算法还可以在技术上不断微调,运营则是一个彻头彻尾的体力活。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>从巅峰的衰落,至少有一半应归咎于糟糕的运营;知乎、豆瓣也遇到过这样的问题。</p></li>\n <li><p>抵抗“过度商业化”的诱惑也是很重要的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>贴吧一度做到过“大而全”和“垂直品类”并存,但是卖贴吧、广告太多等“过度商业化”行为影响了贴吧的社区根基;知乎的商业化也饱受老用户诟病。过度商业化不仅会损害用户体验,还会从根本上摧毁其忠诚度。</p></li>\n <li><p>还有一个问题:用户真能被分入若干个“小圈子”吗?如果一个用户同时具备几种差别很大的爱好呢?对内容的兴趣爱好,在多大程度上决定了用户行为?更进一步地说,决定“调性”的到底是什么——内容本身?对内容的反馈方式(例如发弹幕)?还是另有深层原因?</p></li>\n <li><p>如果在想尽一切方法的情况下,B站还是无法做到“扩大用户基数”和“维持社区调性”的两全其美,那么它应该优先顾及哪一头呢?我希望它能同时做到两点,但是总要做好一切打算。</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670befeebcbd08193adb07b73b72ffb1\"></p>\n<p><span>(想象一下,你要在守住防线和发起反攻之间寻找平衡)</span></p>\n<p>我无法回答上述问题,所以我不是B站的产品经理。我相信,无论B站自己,还是它的竞争对手乃至广义的同行,对上述问题都已经思考过很多轮了。我们无法坐在办公室里、电脑桌前,就把道理想明白;互联网行业的道理是真刀真枪地拼杀出来的。</p>\n<p>可能会有人问:为什么B站一定要维持原有的社区调性呢?尤其是硬核二次元内容,在任何国家都注定是小众的、垂直的,为什么一定不能放弃它呢?为什么不能任其自然边缘化呢?答案很简单:除了道德因素,利益因素也不允许B站的“硬核二次元用户”有实质性松动。这群“死肥宅”事实上养活了B站,也养活了B站上大批不付钱、非二次元的人群。</p>\n<p>B站的主要收入来源,过去、现在、未来都是游戏,尤其是其中的二次元游戏。FGO一款游戏至今仍能贡献B站的近半数营业收入;以前的《碧蓝航线》、今年的《双生视界》均一度构成了收入增长的顶梁柱。当FGO因为不做活动而流水下滑时,B站股价也跟着下滑;当《双生视界》首周表现大超预期时,B站投资者也雀跃不已。B站独家代理的大部分是二次元游戏;它联运的游戏五花八门,但是收入最高的也是其中的二次元品类。</p>\n<p>B站可不可以进军“非二次元”市场,主动脱离原有的硬核二次元用户呢?理论上可以,可是没有必要,而且太危险。二次元游戏是最适合B站的品类。其他品类又是什么样的?让本怪盗团团长尝试梳理一下:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c70a305c72d54d795421edade7015b\"></p>\n<p><span>(未能拿下《明日方舟》独代,是2019年B站很大的遗憾)</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>毫无疑问,竞技/休闲竞技品类是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的禁脔,腾讯不会允许任何人触碰它。2017-18年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>在“吃鸡”品类一度抢跑几个月,却还是败于腾讯的“社交+产品+运营”三位一体的天罗地网。某些智商较低的投资者盼望着字节跳动在这个领域挑战腾讯,但是字节跳动的智商没那么低。</p></li>\n <li><p>超休闲品类近年的崛起速度很快,尤其是不受制于版号、可以广告变现或内部交叉导流。问题在于,腾讯、网易、乐元素乃至字节跳动都在这个领域设置重兵,而B站在这个领域又没有很强的比较优势。</p></li>\n <li><p>女性向是一个不错的高成长市场,但是已经有苏州叠纸等巨头了;腾讯、网易的女性向产品表现也还可以。而且,女性向市场目前的规模其实没有二次元那么大。B站的女性用户虽然不少,但是在女性向游戏方面仍然需要长期探索和一点运气。</p></li>\n <li><p>传统MMORPG/ARPG/SLG等高ARPU领域完全不是B站的天下。我们很难想象B站去代理“传奇系”或者《三国志战略版》。这些高ARPU产品的核心用户是30-45岁的老男人,主要发行方式是买量+硬核联盟应用商店。B站在正常情况下肯定不会尝试这一块。</p></li>\n <li><p>开放世界/沙盒、模拟经营、恋爱养成……其中某些可以归入二次元/女性向,有些还是走上了MMO/SLG的老路,有些干脆就是伪命题。对于一些过于创新的品类,还是让腾讯、网易先去探索好了。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>综上所述,B站与二次元游戏是天造地设;它在短期内很难找到第二个天造地设。新增1000万MAU固然重要,但是哪怕硬核二次元用户流失100万也会肉疼。2019年以来,FGO在一般情况下的DAU也就几十万,而这几十万用户可以创造几百万的日流水、几亿的月流水。我估计《双生视界》的峰值DAU也不到一百万,而它的峰值日流水显然达到了千万量级。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d778b2836d0e5ffb6446bc2bcee03\"></p>\n<p><span>(《双生视界》证明B站的二次元游戏发行实力非常强大)</span></p>\n<p><span>过去几个季度,B站的用户基数已经在不断扩大了,这是内容品类扩张、品宣广告、买量等因素共同作用的结果。刚刚结束的B站跨年晚会,显然进一步增强了B站在年轻用户中的地位。认真观察这个跨年晚会的节目单,你会发现:其中固然有一些硬核二次元内容、一些泛二次元内容,但是也有很多与二次元文化无关的内容。吴亦凡兴高采烈地登台演唱了《大碗宽面》,从而进一步巩固了娱乐类内容在B站的定位。我上次拜访B站时,正好遇到黄晓明前来拜访,我还因此疑惑:黄晓明在B站有很多粉丝吗?现在不用疑惑了,无论有没有粉丝,B站都是娱乐明星争夺年轻受众的兵家必争之地。</span></p>\n<p><span>现在,B站最热门的PUGC品类是生活、娱乐、游戏(排名可能有变化);其中前两类与二次元文化无关。你或许会说:游戏是二次元文化的一部分,中文语境里的二次元就是ACGN嘛!然而,B站最热门的游戏视频和直播内容往往是《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《绝地求生》《英雄联盟》。当然,看FGO或舰娘的人也很多,但是绝不占多数。</span></p>\n<p><span>B站对自己的定位是以Z世代为核心用户的社区,而Z世代不一定要是二次元,尤其不一定要是硬核二次元。Z世代喜欢尝试新鲜事物,喜欢解构权威,喜欢去中心化,喜欢二次创作,喜欢构筑小圈子,喜欢真挚的感情……这些构成了B站的天然调性。假设B站能服务好Z世代,将绝大部分Z世代年轻人变成自己的MAU,那么它确实能够兵不血刃地做到2亿MAU,又不影响社区调性。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而,还有很多应用在争夺Z世代。一个90后职场新人可能同时使用抖音、快手、B站、爱奇艺、腾讯视频和喜马拉雅FM。一个00后大学生的晚间生活需要在《和平精英》、B站弹幕、抖音小姐姐和《庆余年》当中分配。B站究竟能够分到其中的多少注意力呢?对于那些硬核二次元和泛二次元用户来说,B站是精神家园、是信仰级别的存在;对于那些优秀的生活类或娱乐类UP主来说,B站是“一粉顶十粉”的优秀内容发布平台、聚集人气之地。对于千千万万的年轻吃瓜群众呢?B站真的对他们有什么特殊意义吗?</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1036d338821d789c7b5ac3a3be417209\"></p>\n<p><span>(战争尚未结束,你永远不知道自己是苏联还是德国)</span></p>\n<p>在历史上,B站反复证明了自己善于社区运营、善于理解年轻人、善于以去中心化的流量分配机制扶持内容创作者。三大视频平台无法做到以上任何一条,只能走上“版权采购军备竞赛”的不归路;抖音对年轻人的理解很深,但是它的推荐机制是中心化的;快手在上述每个方面都做的很好,但是它的核心用户与B站相差甚远。B站就这样享受着独一无二的生态位,近乎伊甸园的甜蜜时光。但是,它依然是在打仗,与武装到牙齿、随时想抢走它的大本营的竞争对手打仗。这些竞争对手暂时打不进来,而B站想打出去。未来的战争会更加残酷。</p>\n<p>如果我的记忆没有错,在中国互联网的历史上,还从未有内容平台做到过在用户基数急剧扩张的同时,不损害原有内容调性。B站希望做成这件前无古人的事情,我也希望它做成——在这个先例之后,会有很多来者。具体怎么做到呢?</p>\n<p>一切领土都是在实战中征服下来的。就让实战去决定一切命运吧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>B站正在做一件前无古人的事情</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nB站正在做一件前无古人的事情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1093891755\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a468bceacf4427aa893bbe927a9eb89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">互联网怪盗团 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-01-03 09:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>从2019年下半年起,B站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$(BILI)$</a>就在做一件前无古人的事情:既要大幅度扩张用户基数,又要保持二次元和Z世代社区的调性。它希望在未来几年内,将MAU(月活用户)扩张到2亿以上,将营业收入扩张到100亿人民币以上;与此同时,它仍需保持“中国最佳”的内容社区调性,以及活跃而忠诚的核心用户群体。</p>\n<p>上述目标看上去自相矛盾。事实上,以前有很多人尝试过,可惜都不太成功。“用户基数”和“垂直调性”似乎是天然互斥的——你的用户基数越大,用户调性就越是庞杂,就越无法聚焦于垂直品类,也越难以维持良好的社区调性。三大视频平台的用户基数均在B站的2-3倍以上,但是没人会认为三大视频平台有什么调性(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>稍微有一点吧);微信的用户是全国第一,但是没人会认为微信有什么调性。快手和抖音在发展初期很有调性——前者是“老铁集散地”,后者是“潮人集中营”;但是随着用户基数的剧增,它们都逐渐变成了全民应用,虽然调性仍然存在,却正在不断冲淡。</p>\n<p>可能有些人不明白什么是“调性”。下面是本怪盗团团长的个人见解:“调性”就是在用户心目中把你和别人区分开的东西;“调性”就是用户对你的刻板印象;“调性”就是文化、就是区分度、就是作者风格。王家卫的电影很有调性,马尔克斯的小说很有调性,B站的PUGC很有调性。如果有一天,用户无法在短时间内区分B站/爱奇艺,或者B站/抖音,或者B站/快手,那么B站就丧失调性了。这就是我们说“三大视频平台没有调性”的原因——它们播放着一样的内容、采取一样的流量分配模式、连前端界面都很相似。同样,你也可以理解为什么微信没有调性——微信就是全体中国互联网用户,全体用户不可能有什么特别的调性(都是人?)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafbbfd8e973890d0c4d0a8a6197699a\"></p>\n<p><span>(作为JRPG,P5很有调性,而DQ11就不太有调性)</span></p>\n<p>不要误会,“调性”不一定是什么不食人间烟火的东西。“调性”可以很赚钱。快手老铁们一边弹吉他一边直播生吃大肥肉,已经赚到了几百亿打赏;FGO用登峰造极的人设和巧夺天工的数据留住粉丝的心,每年都能赚到几十亿流水。问题在于,在很多人心目中,用户基数的增加、商业变现的深入,必然会导致调性的损失或者消失。那么,B站能是例外吗?</p>\n<p>从理论上讲,在“用户基数扩大”“营业收入剧增”的同时,是有可能做到“社区调性不损失”的。然而,那将是一个非常艰难的过程,像走钢丝一样艰难。本怪盗团团长试图解释一下其中的逻辑:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>无论用户基数多大,如果能让用户根据兴趣爱好、社交关系、性格、地理位置等,形成若干个互不干扰的“小圈子”,那么社区调性就可以保持住。这样,B站在宏观上是一个大型视频平台,在微观上则是无数个垂直平台。</p></li>\n <li><p>上述做法的难点在于:对应用界面、推荐算法、社区运营的要求极高。算法还可以在技术上不断微调,运营则是一个彻头彻尾的体力活。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>从巅峰的衰落,至少有一半应归咎于糟糕的运营;知乎、豆瓣也遇到过这样的问题。</p></li>\n <li><p>抵抗“过度商业化”的诱惑也是很重要的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>贴吧一度做到过“大而全”和“垂直品类”并存,但是卖贴吧、广告太多等“过度商业化”行为影响了贴吧的社区根基;知乎的商业化也饱受老用户诟病。过度商业化不仅会损害用户体验,还会从根本上摧毁其忠诚度。</p></li>\n <li><p>还有一个问题:用户真能被分入若干个“小圈子”吗?如果一个用户同时具备几种差别很大的爱好呢?对内容的兴趣爱好,在多大程度上决定了用户行为?更进一步地说,决定“调性”的到底是什么——内容本身?对内容的反馈方式(例如发弹幕)?还是另有深层原因?</p></li>\n <li><p>如果在想尽一切方法的情况下,B站还是无法做到“扩大用户基数”和“维持社区调性”的两全其美,那么它应该优先顾及哪一头呢?我希望它能同时做到两点,但是总要做好一切打算。</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670befeebcbd08193adb07b73b72ffb1\"></p>\n<p><span>(想象一下,你要在守住防线和发起反攻之间寻找平衡)</span></p>\n<p>我无法回答上述问题,所以我不是B站的产品经理。我相信,无论B站自己,还是它的竞争对手乃至广义的同行,对上述问题都已经思考过很多轮了。我们无法坐在办公室里、电脑桌前,就把道理想明白;互联网行业的道理是真刀真枪地拼杀出来的。</p>\n<p>可能会有人问:为什么B站一定要维持原有的社区调性呢?尤其是硬核二次元内容,在任何国家都注定是小众的、垂直的,为什么一定不能放弃它呢?为什么不能任其自然边缘化呢?答案很简单:除了道德因素,利益因素也不允许B站的“硬核二次元用户”有实质性松动。这群“死肥宅”事实上养活了B站,也养活了B站上大批不付钱、非二次元的人群。</p>\n<p>B站的主要收入来源,过去、现在、未来都是游戏,尤其是其中的二次元游戏。FGO一款游戏至今仍能贡献B站的近半数营业收入;以前的《碧蓝航线》、今年的《双生视界》均一度构成了收入增长的顶梁柱。当FGO因为不做活动而流水下滑时,B站股价也跟着下滑;当《双生视界》首周表现大超预期时,B站投资者也雀跃不已。B站独家代理的大部分是二次元游戏;它联运的游戏五花八门,但是收入最高的也是其中的二次元品类。</p>\n<p>B站可不可以进军“非二次元”市场,主动脱离原有的硬核二次元用户呢?理论上可以,可是没有必要,而且太危险。二次元游戏是最适合B站的品类。其他品类又是什么样的?让本怪盗团团长尝试梳理一下:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c70a305c72d54d795421edade7015b\"></p>\n<p><span>(未能拿下《明日方舟》独代,是2019年B站很大的遗憾)</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>毫无疑问,竞技/休闲竞技品类是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的禁脔,腾讯不会允许任何人触碰它。2017-18年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>在“吃鸡”品类一度抢跑几个月,却还是败于腾讯的“社交+产品+运营”三位一体的天罗地网。某些智商较低的投资者盼望着字节跳动在这个领域挑战腾讯,但是字节跳动的智商没那么低。</p></li>\n <li><p>超休闲品类近年的崛起速度很快,尤其是不受制于版号、可以广告变现或内部交叉导流。问题在于,腾讯、网易、乐元素乃至字节跳动都在这个领域设置重兵,而B站在这个领域又没有很强的比较优势。</p></li>\n <li><p>女性向是一个不错的高成长市场,但是已经有苏州叠纸等巨头了;腾讯、网易的女性向产品表现也还可以。而且,女性向市场目前的规模其实没有二次元那么大。B站的女性用户虽然不少,但是在女性向游戏方面仍然需要长期探索和一点运气。</p></li>\n <li><p>传统MMORPG/ARPG/SLG等高ARPU领域完全不是B站的天下。我们很难想象B站去代理“传奇系”或者《三国志战略版》。这些高ARPU产品的核心用户是30-45岁的老男人,主要发行方式是买量+硬核联盟应用商店。B站在正常情况下肯定不会尝试这一块。</p></li>\n <li><p>开放世界/沙盒、模拟经营、恋爱养成……其中某些可以归入二次元/女性向,有些还是走上了MMO/SLG的老路,有些干脆就是伪命题。对于一些过于创新的品类,还是让腾讯、网易先去探索好了。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>综上所述,B站与二次元游戏是天造地设;它在短期内很难找到第二个天造地设。新增1000万MAU固然重要,但是哪怕硬核二次元用户流失100万也会肉疼。2019年以来,FGO在一般情况下的DAU也就几十万,而这几十万用户可以创造几百万的日流水、几亿的月流水。我估计《双生视界》的峰值DAU也不到一百万,而它的峰值日流水显然达到了千万量级。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d778b2836d0e5ffb6446bc2bcee03\"></p>\n<p><span>(《双生视界》证明B站的二次元游戏发行实力非常强大)</span></p>\n<p><span>过去几个季度,B站的用户基数已经在不断扩大了,这是内容品类扩张、品宣广告、买量等因素共同作用的结果。刚刚结束的B站跨年晚会,显然进一步增强了B站在年轻用户中的地位。认真观察这个跨年晚会的节目单,你会发现:其中固然有一些硬核二次元内容、一些泛二次元内容,但是也有很多与二次元文化无关的内容。吴亦凡兴高采烈地登台演唱了《大碗宽面》,从而进一步巩固了娱乐类内容在B站的定位。我上次拜访B站时,正好遇到黄晓明前来拜访,我还因此疑惑:黄晓明在B站有很多粉丝吗?现在不用疑惑了,无论有没有粉丝,B站都是娱乐明星争夺年轻受众的兵家必争之地。</span></p>\n<p><span>现在,B站最热门的PUGC品类是生活、娱乐、游戏(排名可能有变化);其中前两类与二次元文化无关。你或许会说:游戏是二次元文化的一部分,中文语境里的二次元就是ACGN嘛!然而,B站最热门的游戏视频和直播内容往往是《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《绝地求生》《英雄联盟》。当然,看FGO或舰娘的人也很多,但是绝不占多数。</span></p>\n<p><span>B站对自己的定位是以Z世代为核心用户的社区,而Z世代不一定要是二次元,尤其不一定要是硬核二次元。Z世代喜欢尝试新鲜事物,喜欢解构权威,喜欢去中心化,喜欢二次创作,喜欢构筑小圈子,喜欢真挚的感情……这些构成了B站的天然调性。假设B站能服务好Z世代,将绝大部分Z世代年轻人变成自己的MAU,那么它确实能够兵不血刃地做到2亿MAU,又不影响社区调性。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而,还有很多应用在争夺Z世代。一个90后职场新人可能同时使用抖音、快手、B站、爱奇艺、腾讯视频和喜马拉雅FM。一个00后大学生的晚间生活需要在《和平精英》、B站弹幕、抖音小姐姐和《庆余年》当中分配。B站究竟能够分到其中的多少注意力呢?对于那些硬核二次元和泛二次元用户来说,B站是精神家园、是信仰级别的存在;对于那些优秀的生活类或娱乐类UP主来说,B站是“一粉顶十粉”的优秀内容发布平台、聚集人气之地。对于千千万万的年轻吃瓜群众呢?B站真的对他们有什么特殊意义吗?</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1036d338821d789c7b5ac3a3be417209\"></p>\n<p><span>(战争尚未结束,你永远不知道自己是苏联还是德国)</span></p>\n<p>在历史上,B站反复证明了自己善于社区运营、善于理解年轻人、善于以去中心化的流量分配机制扶持内容创作者。三大视频平台无法做到以上任何一条,只能走上“版权采购军备竞赛”的不归路;抖音对年轻人的理解很深,但是它的推荐机制是中心化的;快手在上述每个方面都做的很好,但是它的核心用户与B站相差甚远。B站就这样享受着独一无二的生态位,近乎伊甸园的甜蜜时光。但是,它依然是在打仗,与武装到牙齿、随时想抢走它的大本营的竞争对手打仗。这些竞争对手暂时打不进来,而B站想打出去。未来的战争会更加残酷。</p>\n<p>如果我的记忆没有错,在中国互联网的历史上,还从未有内容平台做到过在用户基数急剧扩张的同时,不损害原有内容调性。B站希望做成这件前无古人的事情,我也希望它做成——在这个先例之后,会有很多来者。具体怎么做到呢?</p>\n<p>一切领土都是在实战中征服下来的。就让实战去决定一切命运吧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dfca12a1e9d541cb46bc6ec6361a60a","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175519089","content_text":"从2019年下半年起,B站$(BILI)$就在做一件前无古人的事情:既要大幅度扩张用户基数,又要保持二次元和Z世代社区的调性。它希望在未来几年内,将MAU(月活用户)扩张到2亿以上,将营业收入扩张到100亿人民币以上;与此同时,它仍需保持“中国最佳”的内容社区调性,以及活跃而忠诚的核心用户群体。\n上述目标看上去自相矛盾。事实上,以前有很多人尝试过,可惜都不太成功。“用户基数”和“垂直调性”似乎是天然互斥的——你的用户基数越大,用户调性就越是庞杂,就越无法聚焦于垂直品类,也越难以维持良好的社区调性。三大视频平台的用户基数均在B站的2-3倍以上,但是没人会认为三大视频平台有什么调性(爱奇艺稍微有一点吧);微信的用户是全国第一,但是没人会认为微信有什么调性。快手和抖音在发展初期很有调性——前者是“老铁集散地”,后者是“潮人集中营”;但是随着用户基数的剧增,它们都逐渐变成了全民应用,虽然调性仍然存在,却正在不断冲淡。\n可能有些人不明白什么是“调性”。下面是本怪盗团团长的个人见解:“调性”就是在用户心目中把你和别人区分开的东西;“调性”就是用户对你的刻板印象;“调性”就是文化、就是区分度、就是作者风格。王家卫的电影很有调性,马尔克斯的小说很有调性,B站的PUGC很有调性。如果有一天,用户无法在短时间内区分B站/爱奇艺,或者B站/抖音,或者B站/快手,那么B站就丧失调性了。这就是我们说“三大视频平台没有调性”的原因——它们播放着一样的内容、采取一样的流量分配模式、连前端界面都很相似。同样,你也可以理解为什么微信没有调性——微信就是全体中国互联网用户,全体用户不可能有什么特别的调性(都是人?)。\n\n(作为JRPG,P5很有调性,而DQ11就不太有调性)\n不要误会,“调性”不一定是什么不食人间烟火的东西。“调性”可以很赚钱。快手老铁们一边弹吉他一边直播生吃大肥肉,已经赚到了几百亿打赏;FGO用登峰造极的人设和巧夺天工的数据留住粉丝的心,每年都能赚到几十亿流水。问题在于,在很多人心目中,用户基数的增加、商业变现的深入,必然会导致调性的损失或者消失。那么,B站能是例外吗?\n从理论上讲,在“用户基数扩大”“营业收入剧增”的同时,是有可能做到“社区调性不损失”的。然而,那将是一个非常艰难的过程,像走钢丝一样艰难。本怪盗团团长试图解释一下其中的逻辑:\n\n无论用户基数多大,如果能让用户根据兴趣爱好、社交关系、性格、地理位置等,形成若干个互不干扰的“小圈子”,那么社区调性就可以保持住。这样,B站在宏观上是一个大型视频平台,在微观上则是无数个垂直平台。\n上述做法的难点在于:对应用界面、推荐算法、社区运营的要求极高。算法还可以在技术上不断微调,运营则是一个彻头彻尾的体力活。新浪微博从巅峰的衰落,至少有一半应归咎于糟糕的运营;知乎、豆瓣也遇到过这样的问题。\n抵抗“过度商业化”的诱惑也是很重要的。百度贴吧一度做到过“大而全”和“垂直品类”并存,但是卖贴吧、广告太多等“过度商业化”行为影响了贴吧的社区根基;知乎的商业化也饱受老用户诟病。过度商业化不仅会损害用户体验,还会从根本上摧毁其忠诚度。\n还有一个问题:用户真能被分入若干个“小圈子”吗?如果一个用户同时具备几种差别很大的爱好呢?对内容的兴趣爱好,在多大程度上决定了用户行为?更进一步地说,决定“调性”的到底是什么——内容本身?对内容的反馈方式(例如发弹幕)?还是另有深层原因?\n如果在想尽一切方法的情况下,B站还是无法做到“扩大用户基数”和“维持社区调性”的两全其美,那么它应该优先顾及哪一头呢?我希望它能同时做到两点,但是总要做好一切打算。\n\n\n(想象一下,你要在守住防线和发起反攻之间寻找平衡)\n我无法回答上述问题,所以我不是B站的产品经理。我相信,无论B站自己,还是它的竞争对手乃至广义的同行,对上述问题都已经思考过很多轮了。我们无法坐在办公室里、电脑桌前,就把道理想明白;互联网行业的道理是真刀真枪地拼杀出来的。\n可能会有人问:为什么B站一定要维持原有的社区调性呢?尤其是硬核二次元内容,在任何国家都注定是小众的、垂直的,为什么一定不能放弃它呢?为什么不能任其自然边缘化呢?答案很简单:除了道德因素,利益因素也不允许B站的“硬核二次元用户”有实质性松动。这群“死肥宅”事实上养活了B站,也养活了B站上大批不付钱、非二次元的人群。\nB站的主要收入来源,过去、现在、未来都是游戏,尤其是其中的二次元游戏。FGO一款游戏至今仍能贡献B站的近半数营业收入;以前的《碧蓝航线》、今年的《双生视界》均一度构成了收入增长的顶梁柱。当FGO因为不做活动而流水下滑时,B站股价也跟着下滑;当《双生视界》首周表现大超预期时,B站投资者也雀跃不已。B站独家代理的大部分是二次元游戏;它联运的游戏五花八门,但是收入最高的也是其中的二次元品类。\nB站可不可以进军“非二次元”市场,主动脱离原有的硬核二次元用户呢?理论上可以,可是没有必要,而且太危险。二次元游戏是最适合B站的品类。其他品类又是什么样的?让本怪盗团团长尝试梳理一下:\n\n(未能拿下《明日方舟》独代,是2019年B站很大的遗憾)\n\n毫无疑问,竞技/休闲竞技品类是腾讯的禁脔,腾讯不会允许任何人触碰它。2017-18年,网易在“吃鸡”品类一度抢跑几个月,却还是败于腾讯的“社交+产品+运营”三位一体的天罗地网。某些智商较低的投资者盼望着字节跳动在这个领域挑战腾讯,但是字节跳动的智商没那么低。\n超休闲品类近年的崛起速度很快,尤其是不受制于版号、可以广告变现或内部交叉导流。问题在于,腾讯、网易、乐元素乃至字节跳动都在这个领域设置重兵,而B站在这个领域又没有很强的比较优势。\n女性向是一个不错的高成长市场,但是已经有苏州叠纸等巨头了;腾讯、网易的女性向产品表现也还可以。而且,女性向市场目前的规模其实没有二次元那么大。B站的女性用户虽然不少,但是在女性向游戏方面仍然需要长期探索和一点运气。\n传统MMORPG/ARPG/SLG等高ARPU领域完全不是B站的天下。我们很难想象B站去代理“传奇系”或者《三国志战略版》。这些高ARPU产品的核心用户是30-45岁的老男人,主要发行方式是买量+硬核联盟应用商店。B站在正常情况下肯定不会尝试这一块。\n开放世界/沙盒、模拟经营、恋爱养成……其中某些可以归入二次元/女性向,有些还是走上了MMO/SLG的老路,有些干脆就是伪命题。对于一些过于创新的品类,还是让腾讯、网易先去探索好了。\n\n综上所述,B站与二次元游戏是天造地设;它在短期内很难找到第二个天造地设。新增1000万MAU固然重要,但是哪怕硬核二次元用户流失100万也会肉疼。2019年以来,FGO在一般情况下的DAU也就几十万,而这几十万用户可以创造几百万的日流水、几亿的月流水。我估计《双生视界》的峰值DAU也不到一百万,而它的峰值日流水显然达到了千万量级。\n\n(《双生视界》证明B站的二次元游戏发行实力非常强大)\n过去几个季度,B站的用户基数已经在不断扩大了,这是内容品类扩张、品宣广告、买量等因素共同作用的结果。刚刚结束的B站跨年晚会,显然进一步增强了B站在年轻用户中的地位。认真观察这个跨年晚会的节目单,你会发现:其中固然有一些硬核二次元内容、一些泛二次元内容,但是也有很多与二次元文化无关的内容。吴亦凡兴高采烈地登台演唱了《大碗宽面》,从而进一步巩固了娱乐类内容在B站的定位。我上次拜访B站时,正好遇到黄晓明前来拜访,我还因此疑惑:黄晓明在B站有很多粉丝吗?现在不用疑惑了,无论有没有粉丝,B站都是娱乐明星争夺年轻受众的兵家必争之地。\n现在,B站最热门的PUGC品类是生活、娱乐、游戏(排名可能有变化);其中前两类与二次元文化无关。你或许会说:游戏是二次元文化的一部分,中文语境里的二次元就是ACGN嘛!然而,B站最热门的游戏视频和直播内容往往是《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《绝地求生》《英雄联盟》。当然,看FGO或舰娘的人也很多,但是绝不占多数。\nB站对自己的定位是以Z世代为核心用户的社区,而Z世代不一定要是二次元,尤其不一定要是硬核二次元。Z世代喜欢尝试新鲜事物,喜欢解构权威,喜欢去中心化,喜欢二次创作,喜欢构筑小圈子,喜欢真挚的感情……这些构成了B站的天然调性。假设B站能服务好Z世代,将绝大部分Z世代年轻人变成自己的MAU,那么它确实能够兵不血刃地做到2亿MAU,又不影响社区调性。\n然而,还有很多应用在争夺Z世代。一个90后职场新人可能同时使用抖音、快手、B站、爱奇艺、腾讯视频和喜马拉雅FM。一个00后大学生的晚间生活需要在《和平精英》、B站弹幕、抖音小姐姐和《庆余年》当中分配。B站究竟能够分到其中的多少注意力呢?对于那些硬核二次元和泛二次元用户来说,B站是精神家园、是信仰级别的存在;对于那些优秀的生活类或娱乐类UP主来说,B站是“一粉顶十粉”的优秀内容发布平台、聚集人气之地。对于千千万万的年轻吃瓜群众呢?B站真的对他们有什么特殊意义吗?\n\n(战争尚未结束,你永远不知道自己是苏联还是德国)\n在历史上,B站反复证明了自己善于社区运营、善于理解年轻人、善于以去中心化的流量分配机制扶持内容创作者。三大视频平台无法做到以上任何一条,只能走上“版权采购军备竞赛”的不归路;抖音对年轻人的理解很深,但是它的推荐机制是中心化的;快手在上述每个方面都做的很好,但是它的核心用户与B站相差甚远。B站就这样享受着独一无二的生态位,近乎伊甸园的甜蜜时光。但是,它依然是在打仗,与武装到牙齿、随时想抢走它的大本营的竞争对手打仗。这些竞争对手暂时打不进来,而B站想打出去。未来的战争会更加残酷。\n如果我的记忆没有错,在中国互联网的历史上,还从未有内容平台做到过在用户基数急剧扩张的同时,不损害原有内容调性。B站希望做成这件前无古人的事情,我也希望它做成——在这个先例之后,会有很多来者。具体怎么做到呢?\n一切领土都是在实战中征服下来的。就让实战去决定一切命运吧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187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