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Phinen
2020-05-05
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
一起起诉这个基金经理吧,说两倍骗人的。06合约好好的,低点换仓。一点都不专业
Phinen
2020-04-15
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
什么玩意,跟跌不跟涨
Phinen
2020-05-05
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
7天主连100%,你涨20%,真的牛逼不说你涨200%了,**涨100%也行啊
Phinen
2020-04-23
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
这个东东跟着07合约的?
Phinen
2020-04-29
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
这个辣鸡,跌跟着07,涨跟08
Phinen
2020-04-29
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
blgb,比uso涨的还少,还两倍,这种基金经理也配吗?调仓06啊傻吊
Phinen
2020-05-05
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
我知道了,这玩意被割韭菜了
Phinen
2020-05-05
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
走了走了留下发财
Phinen
2021-03-05
任务啊啊啊啊啊
Phinen
2021-03-05
任务啊啊啊啊啊啊
Phinen
2020-06-11
$嘉银金科(JFIN)$
为啥不能做空,哪位大佬知道
Phinen
2020-05-05
这两基金经理不会玩,你妈看看我们国内的基金广发石油。
净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>走了走了留下发财","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$走了走了留下发财","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927042370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927055679,"gmtCreate":1588685269091,"gmtModify":1704178029651,"author":{"id":"3492585091276767","authorId":"3492585091276767","name":"Phinen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3492585091276767","idStr":"3492585091276767"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>我知道了,这玩意被割韭菜了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>我知道了,这玩意被割韭菜了","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$我知道了,这玩意被割韭菜了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927055679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927022036,"gmtCreate":1588683389925,"gmtModify":1704178012325,"author":{"id":"3492585091276767","authorId":"3492585091276767","name":"Phinen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3492585091276767","idStr":"3492585091276767"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>7天主连100%,你涨20%,真的牛逼不说你涨200%了,**涨100%也行啊","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>一起起诉这个基金经理吧,说两倍骗人的。06合约好好的,低点换仓。一点都不专业","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$一起起诉这个基金经理吧,说两倍骗人的。06合约好好的,低点换仓。一点都不专业","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927067003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3538536498669078","authorId":"3538536498669078","name":"英勇无比查理斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae84b94fb76d734ac019b8d31aa4ba67","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3538536498669078","idStr":"3538536498669078"},"content":"起诉他和老虎 怎么搞 老哥组织下","text":"起诉他和老虎 怎么搞 老哥组织下","html":"起诉他和老虎 怎么搞 老哥组织下"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924745084,"gmtCreate":1588642906748,"gmtModify":1704367981866,"author":{"id":"3492585091276767","authorId":"3492585091276767","name":"Phinen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3492585091276767","idStr":"3492585091276767"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这两基金经理不会玩,你妈看看我们国内的基金广发石油。","listText":"这两基金经理不会玩,你妈看看我们国内的基金广发石油。","text":"这两基金经理不会玩,你妈看看我们国内的基金广发石油。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924745084","repostId":"2033584391","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2033584391","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1588638180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2033584391?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-05 08:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2033584391","media":"期货日报","summary":"【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>摘要</div>\n<div>【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。(期货日报)</div>\n<p> 上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/市场\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">市场</span>越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,<span>油价</span>触底可能性不断增加。</p><p> 过去的一个月,全球各地的原油抄底大军被负油价埋葬,这成为了市场关注的焦点。同样遭受重创的美国石油<span>基金</span>USO是全球最受欢迎的与原油<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/价格\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">价格</span>挂钩的交易所交易<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/基金\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">基金</span>,根据该基金上周在美国证券交易<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/委员会\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">委员会</span>(SEC)的月度账户声明,截至2020年3月31日,美国石油基金记录的头寸已<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/亏损\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">亏损</span>4.665亿美元,而当前该基金头寸浮动亏损达到了7.255亿美元,目前该基金不得不专注于更远的期货合约。现在,美国石油基金的头寸比例为7月合约30%,8月、9月、10月和12月合约各15%,以及2021年6月合约10%。</p><div></div><p> 虽然浮亏不断加大,近端油价压力迫使基金不断将持仓后置,但看起来这并没有影响基金净<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/多头\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">多头</span>寸的增仓之旅,近期基金净多持仓已经创下了一年多来的新高,从操作看,基金积极增仓多单,同时减少空头配置。铁了心要抄原油大底的基金会犯致命错误吗?还是油价确实已经跌无可跌了?</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301694050256.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 4月份以来,基金疯狂增仓的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/态度\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">态度</span>非常明显,油价被低估了,具备持续买入价值。而这显然与<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/产业\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">产业</span>体感有明显差异,根据<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a></span><span></span>首席<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/商品\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">商品</span>策略师杰弗里柯里预计,未来3—4周内全球原油库存容量料将受到考验,除非美国页岩油生产商在未来几天(而不是几周)大幅减产,否则全球库容可能会达到极限,需求疲软、供应过剩和存储空间短缺的组合可能会再次将价格压低至零以下。</p><p> 下面我们就来看一下,到底谁的预期可能性更大。</p><p> <strong>5月供需格局将迎来巨变</strong></p><p> 受疫情影响,目前市场普遍预期需求下降2000万—3000万桶/天。而雪上加霜的是,4月份因OPEC+的增产大战,OPEC产油量飙升173万桶/日,创下1990年9月以来最大月度增长。数据显示,沙特4月原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯4月原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。OPEC+增产摧毁了原油市场,WTI原油跌出了原油史上唯一的一个-40美元/桶的价格,超出了广大投资者的认知范畴。</p><p> 油价暴跌的主要原因是全球原油库存的持续大幅累库。标普估计,全球原油等能源的剩余储存能力为14亿桶,其中陆地剩余储存能力约为10亿桶,海上剩余储存能力约为4亿桶。标普认为,即便在考虑OPEC充分减产的情况下,这些<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/储存空间\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">储存空间</span>也将会在2—3个月内被用尽。尤其是美国高频周度数据显示连续多期的超预期累库,不断冲击市场脆弱的心理。从目前的数据看,库存压力仍非常明显,接下来市场能否出现明显改善对于油价后市运行来说非常关键。</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301560434376.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> <strong>OPEC+进入减产执行阶段</strong></p><p> 进入5月份,OPEC+开始正式进入减产执行阶段,计划从5月1日起减产970万桶/日。这个减产协议的减产基准是2018年10月时的产量,最初市场对此普遍不认可,尤其是沙特、俄罗斯减产都是从1100万桶/天的基准开始减产,市场认为沙特、俄罗斯实质性减产效果大打折扣。</p><p> 最新公布的4月份数据显示,沙特原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。沙特和俄罗斯的产量数据有两方面的意义。一方面,这意味着4月份沙特、俄罗斯的大幅增产导致了全球原油的超级累库利空,这重击了油价;另一方面,也是积极的信息,这意味着5月份开始的970万桶/日的减产很可能是货真价实的,将促进供应端改善。</p><p> <strong>被动减产规模有多大?</strong></p><p> 虽然主动减产将成为缓解过剩的重大<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/利多\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">利多</span>,但市场很明白仅靠OPEC+减产协议是很难让市场恢复平衡的,那么被动减产会有多少数量呢?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKR\">贝克休斯</a>公布的最新一期数据显示,美国钻井数已经降到了325台,这意味着后期美国页岩油产量继续大幅下滑已经不可避免。4月份,美国在一个月的时间内产量下降了90万桶/日,有些投资者认为这个量还是太慢,但在我们看来,这个减产数量已经非常快了。我们都知道美国页岩油被誉为“打不死的小强”,目前美国减产速度已经远超2015年沙特增产逼其减产的那一次。</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301506166237.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 挪威石油部称,挪威将在6月减产25万桶/日,在下半年减产13.4万桶/日,并预计<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/成本\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">成本</span>更高的石油生产将大幅减少,如北美的页岩油和油砂。而特朗普表示,全球其他产油国将自然减产。另有市场消息显示,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a></span><span></span>和<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a></span><span></span>计划在全球范围内联合减产80万桶/日。从这种发展趋势来看,我们认为,6月份全球被动减产数量可能会在500万—1000万桶/日之间。</p><p> <strong>需求复苏迹象明显</strong></p><p> 从目前情况来看,欧洲大部分地区疫情已经得到控制,因此多国已经开始准备重启经济。意大利表示,将允许部分<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/工厂\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">工厂</span>在5月4日复工,这是分阶段重启经济计划的一部分。西班牙允许儿童在有监管的情况下外出。而美国虽然仍未明显控制住疫情,但迫于经济压力,部分州已经开始强行重启经济。数据显示,美国近20个州已经或即将恢复经济活动。这一点从美国<span>汽油</span>消费的恢复可以看出,重启速度已经超出市场预期。在汽油产量恢复的同时,美国汽油库存却在减少,这在一定程度上改善了市场预期。</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301054309460.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 中国的需求则更加乐观,虽然主营炼厂开工率较前几年的均值仍有5个百分点的差距,但是经验更加灵活的地方炼厂开工率已经刷新了历史高位,这意味着中国原油需求已经快速恢复到接近正常水平。</p><p> 综合供应端、需求端的全面改善可以看出,5月市场将大不一样!对于累库的预期,我们认为,可能有些机构过于悲观。当然,市场到底能改善到什么程度,我们还要继续密切观察库存数据的变化。</p><p> <strong>宏观经济层面的忧虑</strong></p><p> 上周末,金融市场关注的焦点可能是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦的<span>股东</span>大会,89岁的巴菲特连续讲了5个多小时,伯克希尔一季度<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/净亏损\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">净亏损</span>497.46亿美元,创历史纪录。新冠肺炎疫情带来的冲击可能已经超出了人类的认知,可能没有人能够真正去全面评估疫情对全球经济的冲击,尤其是后期恢复的节奏和时间进度。但毫无疑问,大多数人低估了疫情对经济的冲击。经济增长的急刹车、疫情带来的人们生活习惯的改变、全球化遭受重创等很多问题,我们都需要时间来适应。</p><p> 巴菲特承认自己看错了原油和航空股,在赔钱的情况下全部出清了航空股。他还坦言自己看不清原油市场的未来,全球多地汽车销量暴跌……</p><p> 显然目前原油市场<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/底部\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">底部</span>并未构建完成,后市仍有较大可能出现反复。悲观的产业<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/客户\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">客户</span>认为低油价有可能会持续1—3年,甚至一旦利空再次共振,油价再出现负值也不是不可能出现的事情。</p><p> 这次疫情确实对世界经济短期冲击巨大,后面也充满变数,不以人的意志为转移,也不是所有的风险都可以预测和成功消除,好的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/企业\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">企业</span>和投资总是提前防范并时刻将自己置于不败之地。</p><p> 颠覆原油市场的秩序需要颠覆世界格局的事件出现,疫情冲击虽大,但到目前为止,我们还是相信灾难过后世界会越来越好!</p><p>(文章来源:期货日报)</p>\n<p>\r\n (责任编辑:DF381)\r\n </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"east_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-05 08:23 北京时间 <a href=http://futures.eastmoney.com/a/202005051474725161.html><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要\n【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。(期货日报)\n 上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/a/202005051474725161.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f8ab97654b9d4f235a7b85cd8647e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://futures.eastmoney.com/a/202005051474725161.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2033584391","content_text":"摘要\n【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。(期货日报)\n 上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。 过去的一个月,全球各地的原油抄底大军被负油价埋葬,这成为了市场关注的焦点。同样遭受重创的美国石油基金USO是全球最受欢迎的与原油价格挂钩的交易所交易基金,根据该基金上周在美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的月度账户声明,截至2020年3月31日,美国石油基金记录的头寸已亏损4.665亿美元,而当前该基金头寸浮动亏损达到了7.255亿美元,目前该基金不得不专注于更远的期货合约。现在,美国石油基金的头寸比例为7月合约30%,8月、9月、10月和12月合约各15%,以及2021年6月合约10%。 虽然浮亏不断加大,近端油价压力迫使基金不断将持仓后置,但看起来这并没有影响基金净多头寸的增仓之旅,近期基金净多持仓已经创下了一年多来的新高,从操作看,基金积极增仓多单,同时减少空头配置。铁了心要抄原油大底的基金会犯致命错误吗?还是油价确实已经跌无可跌了? 4月份以来,基金疯狂增仓的态度非常明显,油价被低估了,具备持续买入价值。而这显然与产业体感有明显差异,根据高盛首席商品策略师杰弗里柯里预计,未来3—4周内全球原油库存容量料将受到考验,除非美国页岩油生产商在未来几天(而不是几周)大幅减产,否则全球库容可能会达到极限,需求疲软、供应过剩和存储空间短缺的组合可能会再次将价格压低至零以下。 下面我们就来看一下,到底谁的预期可能性更大。 5月供需格局将迎来巨变 受疫情影响,目前市场普遍预期需求下降2000万—3000万桶/天。而雪上加霜的是,4月份因OPEC+的增产大战,OPEC产油量飙升173万桶/日,创下1990年9月以来最大月度增长。数据显示,沙特4月原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯4月原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。OPEC+增产摧毁了原油市场,WTI原油跌出了原油史上唯一的一个-40美元/桶的价格,超出了广大投资者的认知范畴。 油价暴跌的主要原因是全球原油库存的持续大幅累库。标普估计,全球原油等能源的剩余储存能力为14亿桶,其中陆地剩余储存能力约为10亿桶,海上剩余储存能力约为4亿桶。标普认为,即便在考虑OPEC充分减产的情况下,这些储存空间也将会在2—3个月内被用尽。尤其是美国高频周度数据显示连续多期的超预期累库,不断冲击市场脆弱的心理。从目前的数据看,库存压力仍非常明显,接下来市场能否出现明显改善对于油价后市运行来说非常关键。 OPEC+进入减产执行阶段 进入5月份,OPEC+开始正式进入减产执行阶段,计划从5月1日起减产970万桶/日。这个减产协议的减产基准是2018年10月时的产量,最初市场对此普遍不认可,尤其是沙特、俄罗斯减产都是从1100万桶/天的基准开始减产,市场认为沙特、俄罗斯实质性减产效果大打折扣。 最新公布的4月份数据显示,沙特原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。沙特和俄罗斯的产量数据有两方面的意义。一方面,这意味着4月份沙特、俄罗斯的大幅增产导致了全球原油的超级累库利空,这重击了油价;另一方面,也是积极的信息,这意味着5月份开始的970万桶/日的减产很可能是货真价实的,将促进供应端改善。 被动减产规模有多大? 虽然主动减产将成为缓解过剩的重大利多,但市场很明白仅靠OPEC+减产协议是很难让市场恢复平衡的,那么被动减产会有多少数量呢?贝克休斯公布的最新一期数据显示,美国钻井数已经降到了325台,这意味着后期美国页岩油产量继续大幅下滑已经不可避免。4月份,美国在一个月的时间内产量下降了90万桶/日,有些投资者认为这个量还是太慢,但在我们看来,这个减产数量已经非常快了。我们都知道美国页岩油被誉为“打不死的小强”,目前美国减产速度已经远超2015年沙特增产逼其减产的那一次。 挪威石油部称,挪威将在6月减产25万桶/日,在下半年减产13.4万桶/日,并预计成本更高的石油生产将大幅减少,如北美的页岩油和油砂。而特朗普表示,全球其他产油国将自然减产。另有市场消息显示,埃克森美孚和雪佛龙计划在全球范围内联合减产80万桶/日。从这种发展趋势来看,我们认为,6月份全球被动减产数量可能会在500万—1000万桶/日之间。 需求复苏迹象明显 从目前情况来看,欧洲大部分地区疫情已经得到控制,因此多国已经开始准备重启经济。意大利表示,将允许部分工厂在5月4日复工,这是分阶段重启经济计划的一部分。西班牙允许儿童在有监管的情况下外出。而美国虽然仍未明显控制住疫情,但迫于经济压力,部分州已经开始强行重启经济。数据显示,美国近20个州已经或即将恢复经济活动。这一点从美国汽油消费的恢复可以看出,重启速度已经超出市场预期。在汽油产量恢复的同时,美国汽油库存却在减少,这在一定程度上改善了市场预期。 中国的需求则更加乐观,虽然主营炼厂开工率较前几年的均值仍有5个百分点的差距,但是经验更加灵活的地方炼厂开工率已经刷新了历史高位,这意味着中国原油需求已经快速恢复到接近正常水平。 综合供应端、需求端的全面改善可以看出,5月市场将大不一样!对于累库的预期,我们认为,可能有些机构过于悲观。当然,市场到底能改善到什么程度,我们还要继续密切观察库存数据的变化。 宏观经济层面的忧虑 上周末,金融市场关注的焦点可能是伯克希尔哈撒韦的股东大会,89岁的巴菲特连续讲了5个多小时,伯克希尔一季度净亏损497.46亿美元,创历史纪录。新冠肺炎疫情带来的冲击可能已经超出了人类的认知,可能没有人能够真正去全面评估疫情对全球经济的冲击,尤其是后期恢复的节奏和时间进度。但毫无疑问,大多数人低估了疫情对经济的冲击。经济增长的急刹车、疫情带来的人们生活习惯的改变、全球化遭受重创等很多问题,我们都需要时间来适应。 巴菲特承认自己看错了原油和航空股,在赔钱的情况下全部出清了航空股。他还坦言自己看不清原油市场的未来,全球多地汽车销量暴跌…… 显然目前原油市场底部并未构建完成,后市仍有较大可能出现反复。悲观的产业客户认为低油价有可能会持续1—3年,甚至一旦利空再次共振,油价再出现负值也不是不可能出现的事情。 这次疫情确实对世界经济短期冲击巨大,后面也充满变数,不以人的意志为转移,也不是所有的风险都可以预测和成功消除,好的企业和投资总是提前防范并时刻将自己置于不败之地。 颠覆原油市场的秩序需要颠覆世界格局的事件出现,疫情冲击虽大,但到目前为止,我们还是相信灾难过后世界会越来越好!(文章来源:期货日报)\n\r\n (责任编辑:DF381)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924905367,"gmtCreate":1588173133959,"gmtModify":1704366802557,"author":{"id":"3492585091276767","authorId":"3492585091276767","name":"Phinen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3492585091276767","idStr":"3492585091276767"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>blgb,比uso涨的还少,还两倍,这种基金经理也配吗?调仓06啊傻吊","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>这个辣鸡,跌跟着07,涨跟08","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$这个辣鸡,跌跟着07,涨跟08","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924015519","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922478434,"gmtCreate":1587651490028,"gmtModify":1704365122946,"author":{"id":"3492585091276767","authorId":"3492585091276767","name":"Phinen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3492585091276767","idStr":"3492585091276767"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>这个东东跟着07合约的?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>这个东东跟着07合约的?","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$这个东东跟着07合约的?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922478434","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547594826980069","authorId":"3547594826980069","name":"接着涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e28538517a0e011d8c69314dd2fc53","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547594826980069","idStr":"3547594826980069"},"content":"06 07 08都有","text":"06 07 08都有","html":"06 07 08都有"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":926918545,"gmtCreate":1586958637787,"gmtModify":1704362697861,"author":{"id":"3492585091276767","authorId":"3492585091276767","name":"Phinen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3492585091276767","idStr":"3492585091276767"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>什么玩意,跟跌不跟涨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>什么玩意,跟跌不跟涨","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$什么玩意,跟跌不跟涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926918545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"318302578551629","authorId":"318302578551629","name":"请叫我欧皇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"318302578551629","idStr":"318302578551629"},"content":"看布油走势,这不是跟原油主联,综合起来油还是跌。","text":"看布油走势,这不是跟原油主联,综合起来油还是跌。","html":"看布油走势,这不是跟原油主联,综合起来油还是跌。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":927067003,"gmtCreate":1588681771802,"gmtModify":1704178002612,"author":{"id":"3492585091276767","authorId":"3492585091276767","name":"Phinen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492585091276767","authorIdStr":"3492585091276767"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JFIN\">$嘉银金科(JFIN)$</a>为啥不能做空,哪位大佬知道","listText":"<a 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08:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2033584391","media":"期货日报","summary":"【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>摘要</div>\n<div>【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。(期货日报)</div>\n<p> 上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/市场\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">市场</span>越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,<span>油价</span>触底可能性不断增加。</p><p> 过去的一个月,全球各地的原油抄底大军被负油价埋葬,这成为了市场关注的焦点。同样遭受重创的美国石油<span>基金</span>USO是全球最受欢迎的与原油<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/价格\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">价格</span>挂钩的交易所交易<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/基金\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">基金</span>,根据该基金上周在美国证券交易<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/委员会\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">委员会</span>(SEC)的月度账户声明,截至2020年3月31日,美国石油基金记录的头寸已<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/亏损\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">亏损</span>4.665亿美元,而当前该基金头寸浮动亏损达到了7.255亿美元,目前该基金不得不专注于更远的期货合约。现在,美国石油基金的头寸比例为7月合约30%,8月、9月、10月和12月合约各15%,以及2021年6月合约10%。</p><div></div><p> 虽然浮亏不断加大,近端油价压力迫使基金不断将持仓后置,但看起来这并没有影响基金净<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/多头\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">多头</span>寸的增仓之旅,近期基金净多持仓已经创下了一年多来的新高,从操作看,基金积极增仓多单,同时减少空头配置。铁了心要抄原油大底的基金会犯致命错误吗?还是油价确实已经跌无可跌了?</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301694050256.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 4月份以来,基金疯狂增仓的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/态度\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">态度</span>非常明显,油价被低估了,具备持续买入价值。而这显然与<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/产业\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">产业</span>体感有明显差异,根据<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a></span><span></span>首席<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/商品\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">商品</span>策略师杰弗里柯里预计,未来3—4周内全球原油库存容量料将受到考验,除非美国页岩油生产商在未来几天(而不是几周)大幅减产,否则全球库容可能会达到极限,需求疲软、供应过剩和存储空间短缺的组合可能会再次将价格压低至零以下。</p><p> 下面我们就来看一下,到底谁的预期可能性更大。</p><p> <strong>5月供需格局将迎来巨变</strong></p><p> 受疫情影响,目前市场普遍预期需求下降2000万—3000万桶/天。而雪上加霜的是,4月份因OPEC+的增产大战,OPEC产油量飙升173万桶/日,创下1990年9月以来最大月度增长。数据显示,沙特4月原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯4月原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。OPEC+增产摧毁了原油市场,WTI原油跌出了原油史上唯一的一个-40美元/桶的价格,超出了广大投资者的认知范畴。</p><p> 油价暴跌的主要原因是全球原油库存的持续大幅累库。标普估计,全球原油等能源的剩余储存能力为14亿桶,其中陆地剩余储存能力约为10亿桶,海上剩余储存能力约为4亿桶。标普认为,即便在考虑OPEC充分减产的情况下,这些<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/储存空间\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">储存空间</span>也将会在2—3个月内被用尽。尤其是美国高频周度数据显示连续多期的超预期累库,不断冲击市场脆弱的心理。从目前的数据看,库存压力仍非常明显,接下来市场能否出现明显改善对于油价后市运行来说非常关键。</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301560434376.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> <strong>OPEC+进入减产执行阶段</strong></p><p> 进入5月份,OPEC+开始正式进入减产执行阶段,计划从5月1日起减产970万桶/日。这个减产协议的减产基准是2018年10月时的产量,最初市场对此普遍不认可,尤其是沙特、俄罗斯减产都是从1100万桶/天的基准开始减产,市场认为沙特、俄罗斯实质性减产效果大打折扣。</p><p> 最新公布的4月份数据显示,沙特原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。沙特和俄罗斯的产量数据有两方面的意义。一方面,这意味着4月份沙特、俄罗斯的大幅增产导致了全球原油的超级累库利空,这重击了油价;另一方面,也是积极的信息,这意味着5月份开始的970万桶/日的减产很可能是货真价实的,将促进供应端改善。</p><p> <strong>被动减产规模有多大?</strong></p><p> 虽然主动减产将成为缓解过剩的重大<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/利多\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">利多</span>,但市场很明白仅靠OPEC+减产协议是很难让市场恢复平衡的,那么被动减产会有多少数量呢?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKR\">贝克休斯</a>公布的最新一期数据显示,美国钻井数已经降到了325台,这意味着后期美国页岩油产量继续大幅下滑已经不可避免。4月份,美国在一个月的时间内产量下降了90万桶/日,有些投资者认为这个量还是太慢,但在我们看来,这个减产数量已经非常快了。我们都知道美国页岩油被誉为“打不死的小强”,目前美国减产速度已经远超2015年沙特增产逼其减产的那一次。</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301506166237.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 挪威石油部称,挪威将在6月减产25万桶/日,在下半年减产13.4万桶/日,并预计<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/成本\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">成本</span>更高的石油生产将大幅减少,如北美的页岩油和油砂。而特朗普表示,全球其他产油国将自然减产。另有市场消息显示,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a></span><span></span>和<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a></span><span></span>计划在全球范围内联合减产80万桶/日。从这种发展趋势来看,我们认为,6月份全球被动减产数量可能会在500万—1000万桶/日之间。</p><p> <strong>需求复苏迹象明显</strong></p><p> 从目前情况来看,欧洲大部分地区疫情已经得到控制,因此多国已经开始准备重启经济。意大利表示,将允许部分<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/工厂\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">工厂</span>在5月4日复工,这是分阶段重启经济计划的一部分。西班牙允许儿童在有监管的情况下外出。而美国虽然仍未明显控制住疫情,但迫于经济压力,部分州已经开始强行重启经济。数据显示,美国近20个州已经或即将恢复经济活动。这一点从美国<span>汽油</span>消费的恢复可以看出,重启速度已经超出市场预期。在汽油产量恢复的同时,美国汽油库存却在减少,这在一定程度上改善了市场预期。</p><center><img src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/5/5/202005050825301054309460.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 中国的需求则更加乐观,虽然主营炼厂开工率较前几年的均值仍有5个百分点的差距,但是经验更加灵活的地方炼厂开工率已经刷新了历史高位,这意味着中国原油需求已经快速恢复到接近正常水平。</p><p> 综合供应端、需求端的全面改善可以看出,5月市场将大不一样!对于累库的预期,我们认为,可能有些机构过于悲观。当然,市场到底能改善到什么程度,我们还要继续密切观察库存数据的变化。</p><p> <strong>宏观经济层面的忧虑</strong></p><p> 上周末,金融市场关注的焦点可能是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦的<span>股东</span>大会,89岁的巴菲特连续讲了5个多小时,伯克希尔一季度<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/净亏损\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">净亏损</span>497.46亿美元,创历史纪录。新冠肺炎疫情带来的冲击可能已经超出了人类的认知,可能没有人能够真正去全面评估疫情对全球经济的冲击,尤其是后期恢复的节奏和时间进度。但毫无疑问,大多数人低估了疫情对经济的冲击。经济增长的急刹车、疫情带来的人们生活习惯的改变、全球化遭受重创等很多问题,我们都需要时间来适应。</p><p> 巴菲特承认自己看错了原油和航空股,在赔钱的情况下全部出清了航空股。他还坦言自己看不清原油市场的未来,全球多地汽车销量暴跌……</p><p> 显然目前原油市场<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/底部\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">底部</span>并未构建完成,后市仍有较大可能出现反复。悲观的产业<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/客户\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">客户</span>认为低油价有可能会持续1—3年,甚至一旦利空再次共振,油价再出现负值也不是不可能出现的事情。</p><p> 这次疫情确实对世界经济短期冲击巨大,后面也充满变数,不以人的意志为转移,也不是所有的风险都可以预测和成功消除,好的<span href=\"http://baike.eastmoney.com/item/企业\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">企业</span>和投资总是提前防范并时刻将自己置于不败之地。</p><p> 颠覆原油市场的秩序需要颠覆世界格局的事件出现,疫情冲击虽大,但到目前为止,我们还是相信灾难过后世界会越来越好!</p><p>(文章来源:期货日报)</p>\n<p>\r\n (责任编辑:DF381)\r\n </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"east_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-05 08:23 北京时间 <a href=http://futures.eastmoney.com/a/202005051474725161.html><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要\n【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。(期货日报)\n 上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/a/202005051474725161.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f8ab97654b9d4f235a7b85cd8647e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://futures.eastmoney.com/a/202005051474725161.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2033584391","content_text":"摘要\n【净多持仓再创新高!基金抄底原油到“天荒地老”?】上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。(期货日报)\n 上周WTI原油单周涨幅约为17%,为四周以来首次录得周度上涨。市场越来越相信,随着封锁措施的放松以及全球经济的重启,石油和燃料油的需求将开始急剧增加,随着5月份OPEC+减产力度加大,油价触底可能性不断增加。 过去的一个月,全球各地的原油抄底大军被负油价埋葬,这成为了市场关注的焦点。同样遭受重创的美国石油基金USO是全球最受欢迎的与原油价格挂钩的交易所交易基金,根据该基金上周在美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的月度账户声明,截至2020年3月31日,美国石油基金记录的头寸已亏损4.665亿美元,而当前该基金头寸浮动亏损达到了7.255亿美元,目前该基金不得不专注于更远的期货合约。现在,美国石油基金的头寸比例为7月合约30%,8月、9月、10月和12月合约各15%,以及2021年6月合约10%。 虽然浮亏不断加大,近端油价压力迫使基金不断将持仓后置,但看起来这并没有影响基金净多头寸的增仓之旅,近期基金净多持仓已经创下了一年多来的新高,从操作看,基金积极增仓多单,同时减少空头配置。铁了心要抄原油大底的基金会犯致命错误吗?还是油价确实已经跌无可跌了? 4月份以来,基金疯狂增仓的态度非常明显,油价被低估了,具备持续买入价值。而这显然与产业体感有明显差异,根据高盛首席商品策略师杰弗里柯里预计,未来3—4周内全球原油库存容量料将受到考验,除非美国页岩油生产商在未来几天(而不是几周)大幅减产,否则全球库容可能会达到极限,需求疲软、供应过剩和存储空间短缺的组合可能会再次将价格压低至零以下。 下面我们就来看一下,到底谁的预期可能性更大。 5月供需格局将迎来巨变 受疫情影响,目前市场普遍预期需求下降2000万—3000万桶/天。而雪上加霜的是,4月份因OPEC+的增产大战,OPEC产油量飙升173万桶/日,创下1990年9月以来最大月度增长。数据显示,沙特4月原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯4月原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。OPEC+增产摧毁了原油市场,WTI原油跌出了原油史上唯一的一个-40美元/桶的价格,超出了广大投资者的认知范畴。 油价暴跌的主要原因是全球原油库存的持续大幅累库。标普估计,全球原油等能源的剩余储存能力为14亿桶,其中陆地剩余储存能力约为10亿桶,海上剩余储存能力约为4亿桶。标普认为,即便在考虑OPEC充分减产的情况下,这些储存空间也将会在2—3个月内被用尽。尤其是美国高频周度数据显示连续多期的超预期累库,不断冲击市场脆弱的心理。从目前的数据看,库存压力仍非常明显,接下来市场能否出现明显改善对于油价后市运行来说非常关键。 OPEC+进入减产执行阶段 进入5月份,OPEC+开始正式进入减产执行阶段,计划从5月1日起减产970万桶/日。这个减产协议的减产基准是2018年10月时的产量,最初市场对此普遍不认可,尤其是沙特、俄罗斯减产都是从1100万桶/天的基准开始减产,市场认为沙特、俄罗斯实质性减产效果大打折扣。 最新公布的4月份数据显示,沙特原油产量增至纪录新高的1140万桶/日,俄罗斯原油产量跳升至1135万桶/日。沙特和俄罗斯的产量数据有两方面的意义。一方面,这意味着4月份沙特、俄罗斯的大幅增产导致了全球原油的超级累库利空,这重击了油价;另一方面,也是积极的信息,这意味着5月份开始的970万桶/日的减产很可能是货真价实的,将促进供应端改善。 被动减产规模有多大? 虽然主动减产将成为缓解过剩的重大利多,但市场很明白仅靠OPEC+减产协议是很难让市场恢复平衡的,那么被动减产会有多少数量呢?贝克休斯公布的最新一期数据显示,美国钻井数已经降到了325台,这意味着后期美国页岩油产量继续大幅下滑已经不可避免。4月份,美国在一个月的时间内产量下降了90万桶/日,有些投资者认为这个量还是太慢,但在我们看来,这个减产数量已经非常快了。我们都知道美国页岩油被誉为“打不死的小强”,目前美国减产速度已经远超2015年沙特增产逼其减产的那一次。 挪威石油部称,挪威将在6月减产25万桶/日,在下半年减产13.4万桶/日,并预计成本更高的石油生产将大幅减少,如北美的页岩油和油砂。而特朗普表示,全球其他产油国将自然减产。另有市场消息显示,埃克森美孚和雪佛龙计划在全球范围内联合减产80万桶/日。从这种发展趋势来看,我们认为,6月份全球被动减产数量可能会在500万—1000万桶/日之间。 需求复苏迹象明显 从目前情况来看,欧洲大部分地区疫情已经得到控制,因此多国已经开始准备重启经济。意大利表示,将允许部分工厂在5月4日复工,这是分阶段重启经济计划的一部分。西班牙允许儿童在有监管的情况下外出。而美国虽然仍未明显控制住疫情,但迫于经济压力,部分州已经开始强行重启经济。数据显示,美国近20个州已经或即将恢复经济活动。这一点从美国汽油消费的恢复可以看出,重启速度已经超出市场预期。在汽油产量恢复的同时,美国汽油库存却在减少,这在一定程度上改善了市场预期。 中国的需求则更加乐观,虽然主营炼厂开工率较前几年的均值仍有5个百分点的差距,但是经验更加灵活的地方炼厂开工率已经刷新了历史高位,这意味着中国原油需求已经快速恢复到接近正常水平。 综合供应端、需求端的全面改善可以看出,5月市场将大不一样!对于累库的预期,我们认为,可能有些机构过于悲观。当然,市场到底能改善到什么程度,我们还要继续密切观察库存数据的变化。 宏观经济层面的忧虑 上周末,金融市场关注的焦点可能是伯克希尔哈撒韦的股东大会,89岁的巴菲特连续讲了5个多小时,伯克希尔一季度净亏损497.46亿美元,创历史纪录。新冠肺炎疫情带来的冲击可能已经超出了人类的认知,可能没有人能够真正去全面评估疫情对全球经济的冲击,尤其是后期恢复的节奏和时间进度。但毫无疑问,大多数人低估了疫情对经济的冲击。经济增长的急刹车、疫情带来的人们生活习惯的改变、全球化遭受重创等很多问题,我们都需要时间来适应。 巴菲特承认自己看错了原油和航空股,在赔钱的情况下全部出清了航空股。他还坦言自己看不清原油市场的未来,全球多地汽车销量暴跌…… 显然目前原油市场底部并未构建完成,后市仍有较大可能出现反复。悲观的产业客户认为低油价有可能会持续1—3年,甚至一旦利空再次共振,油价再出现负值也不是不可能出现的事情。 这次疫情确实对世界经济短期冲击巨大,后面也充满变数,不以人的意志为转移,也不是所有的风险都可以预测和成功消除,好的企业和投资总是提前防范并时刻将自己置于不败之地。 颠覆原油市场的秩序需要颠覆世界格局的事件出现,疫情冲击虽大,但到目前为止,我们还是相信灾难过后世界会越来越好!(文章来源:期货日报)\n\r\n 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