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带泡沫的苹果
深海里的鲸鱼
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带泡沫的苹果
07-10
美股,确实是和时间做朋友,A股是搞段时间就得跑,有时候今天进明天就得跑,反正挺坑的
带泡沫的苹果
07-10
时间方长点,华尔街那个女人不是说上,2000,3000嘛,每次我想跑的时候就想起了她这句话,这不又是进账200刀
带泡沫的苹果
07-09
笑话,还寄吧还有骨气的说不用别人芯片
“阉割版”AI芯片,能让英伟达在中国挣900亿?
带泡沫的苹果
07-07
我以前喜欢买便宜的,我现在喜欢高价票,包括A股里面也是的
带泡沫的苹果
07-07
英伟达好歹也要摸下200。已经成了生产力了
@萧蝶sally:对不起,我不看好英伟达
带泡沫的苹果
07-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
182买的,第二天就卖了,买的mara,涨14个点,后面第二天把mara卖了,追高特斯拉226价格,综合来看还是亏了,因为特斯拉可以融资,MARA不可以,利润上来说亏了
带泡沫的苹果
07-04
这逼以前不是说看到3000的嘛?才涨几天就减持了,搞的成了股票都是这些大资本的游戏是吧[喷血] [捂脸]
“木头姐”旗下ETF于9个月来首次抛售特斯拉股票
带泡沫的苹果
07-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
多呀
带泡沫的苹果
06-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
唉,反正不懂,就相信华尔街那个疯女人吧,至少别人长的漂亮,而且还很专业,至少比我这个穷**丝要专业吧?全力押注了
带泡沫的苹果
06-21
对,还是留在国外吧,在国内了,又是抄袭的,还说自己伟大
朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”
带泡沫的苹果
06-07
$黄金主连 2408(GCmain)$
不妙呀,头肩顶形态,不好做了,国际社会变化太快
带泡沫的苹果
05-29
$英伟达(NVDA)$
空军开始行动了嘛
带泡沫的苹果
05-28
$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$
华尔街是到底想短期诱多铜好杀呢?还是想趁这个机会利用个人投资者好拉高铜呢,现在还没摸清楚他们的动机,长期看肯定向上,可是这个介入的时机和点在哪呢?这个很重要,要不然就一大批人被收割了,别忘了上次铜创新高,出来长空的,发布空头信息的就是华尔街里面的那一批同行
带泡沫的苹果
05-15
$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$
大锅,你是仙人指路,还是到了短期高点呀[捂脸] [笑哭]
带泡沫的苹果
05-14
$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$
今天能上5嘛?
带泡沫的苹果
05-02
换香港了
“五月卖出,然后走人”?华尔街齐呼:别信!
带泡沫的苹果
04-24
$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$
会
带泡沫的苹果
04-23
$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$
会
带泡沫的苹果
04-01
是真的,因为货币超发,钱不值钱了,股市是蓄水池,然后汇率增值股市就不得鸟啦//
@冯榕
:胡说八道!
@冯榕:胡说八道!
带泡沫的苹果
03-21
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
真强呀
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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16:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“阉割版”AI芯片,能让英伟达在中国挣900亿?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112420806","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"英伟达在今年有望交付100万枚H20 GPU。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者 | 丸都山</p><p> 7月8日周一,英伟达“回来了”。盘中股价一度上涨至近三周高点,市值重新站上3.2万亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73fc140e5d1820dbea369c3e6613096c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p> 一枚性能大幅缩水AI芯片,可能会让英伟达在中国挣上900亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 7月5日,咨询机构SemiAnalysis发布报告称,英伟达在今年有望交付100万枚H20 GPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 考虑到这是一枚阉割过,且性价比较低的“对华特供版”芯片,基本可以认定,这100万枚芯片将在今年全部流入中国大陆市场。以目前该型芯片1.2-1.3万美元的渠道定价来看,H20芯片可以为英伟达带来至少120亿美元的收入,已经超过了这家公司去年在华总营收。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 不过,H20在中国市场的实际情况,可能并没有如咨询机构预估的那般乐观。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 一位服务器经销商向虎嗅表示,目前一台H20八卡服务器,定价大约在120万元,而性能大幅领先的满配H100 NVLink版本的八卡服务器价格为270万元上下,而且是现货。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 尽管后者早早被列入禁止对华出售的名单中,但在非官方渠道中,这款芯片的货源基本没有断过,甚至在今年二季度H200开售后,这款芯片的价格还下跌了约10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> “无论怎么看,H20的性价比都还是太低。”这位服务器经销商提到,即便是同国内的解决方案相比,H20都难言有多大的竞争优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> “阉割版”,但还挺良心的?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 与同系列芯片不同,H20是一枚“赶工”性质非常明显的产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在去年10月美国升级芯片禁令后,原本就被视为阉割版芯片的A800/H800,甚至是消费级产品RTX4090都被纳入禁令的管制范围。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但仅在一个月后,就有台湾地区媒体报道称,英伟达向代工厂下了H20芯片的订单。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在如此短的时间内,英伟达不可能重新设计一款芯片,最大的可能是基于既有型号进行有针对性的调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 比如新规中取消了将“互联带宽”作为限制芯片的识别参数,英伟达就将H20的HBM3显存容量拉高到96Gb,使显存带宽提高到4.0Tb/s;又比如新规新增了“性能密度”的限制,英伟达就向算力规格大砍一刀,使其理论性能仅为296TFLOP,相当于H100芯片的15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 至于那些新规没有提到的,比如PCIe Gen5扩展卡、八路HGX,英伟达全部保留了下来。值得一提的是,H20还有非常高的卡间互联速度,其NV Link带宽达到900Gb/s,很适合组建大规模集群。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但这些特征组合在一起,却形成了一个很尴尬的事实:在算力大幅削减的情况下,H20的BOM很可能跟H100齐平,甚至高于后者。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 原因在于,存储颗粒一直是高性能计算卡成本的“大头”,比如H100芯片中,HBM3颗粒的采购就要占到60%左右,而在H20芯片上,英伟达又不得不为其配备更高规格的显存容量,以弥补算力不足的缺陷。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 基本可以断定,H20在英伟达高性能计算卡中,属于利润率最低的存在。相较于1.2-1.3万美元的售价,与它同成本的H100目前定价为2.5-3万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 从这个角度来看,H20算是英伟达的一款良心产品了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 英伟达自然不甘心于让一款单品拉低公司整体的毛利表现,但自去年芯片禁令升级后,英伟达四季度在中国大陆的营收,从上一季度的40.3亿降低至19.46亿,其中国区数据中心营收占比也从22%滑落至8%,英伟达急需用一款产品去稳住在中国的市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> H20就是英伟达拿出的诚意之作,但还是那个问题,H20的算力实在羸弱,这个硬伤无法被忽视。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 华为或与之一战?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 实际上,英伟达曾在今年2月进行过一次官方调价,在调价之前H20芯片的价格为2.3万美元,尽管英伟达表示降价的原因是“供货充足”,但如此大幅的价格调整,主要原因大概率还是销量没有达到预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> “国内大厂基本不会考虑H20服务器,都是闭眼买H100,而那些体量相对小的厂商也认为有点划不来。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 有服务器经销商向笔者算了一笔账,现在H100的服务器单机租赁费用大概是8-9万元/月,而算力仅有前者六分之一的H20服务器价格为120万元上下,即便不考虑算力损耗的问题,厂商也需要购买6台H20服务器,才能与H100服务器相齐平。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 这样一对比,H20虽然是英伟达利润率最低的产品,但对于客户来说,实在称不上有性价比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而对于英伟达来说,还有一个不可忽视的因素是国内同类型竞品,比如华为昇腾910B。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 与H20相比,910B在单卡算力(FP16)上几乎相当于前者的一倍。相应地,910B价格也要高于H20,服务器经销商向笔者表示,目前910B的服务器价格已经超过170万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 抛开价格,从实际表现来看,二者的竞争互有胜负手。910B强在算力和能效比上,H20则胜在软件生态与互联上。最直接的例子就是,H20兼容所有的英伟达H系列卡,而且具备极高的访存能力,在搭建算力集群时,能够更好地避免算力损耗。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,这个集群规模是有上限的,比如各地筹划的“万P计算集群”,如果用H20搭建,那么0.15P单卡运算能力就意味着十万颗级别的GPU,组网难度极大。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 另外一个值得关注的问题是,英伟达与华为谁能更加稳定地供应产品?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此前,就有业内人士向笔者提到过,对于那些急于购买搭建算力中心的厂商来说,H20可能是更现实的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 一方面,英伟达的软件生态更加成熟,厂商的适配工作量要小得多;另一方面,目前无论是政策还是资本方,都对于算力中心的芯片国产化率有一定要求,910B的需求量非常大,相应地交付周期也比较长。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 这一说法笔者也在服务器经销商处得到了验证,对方向笔者表示,“在英伟达调价前,行业内客户对于910B的咨询要远大于H20,但现在也有客户对H20展现出了兴趣,因为有充足的现货。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 有趣的是,二者可能并不是完全意义上的竞争关系,因为有业内人士向笔者表示,在他所在的公司,910B和H20被归为不同分级,在采购上并不冲突。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“阉割版”AI芯片,能让英伟达在中国挣900亿?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“阉割版”AI芯片,能让英伟达在中国挣900亿?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-08 16:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>作者 | 丸都山</p><p> 7月8日周一,英伟达“回来了”。盘中股价一度上涨至近三周高点,市值重新站上3.2万亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73fc140e5d1820dbea369c3e6613096c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p> 一枚性能大幅缩水AI芯片,可能会让英伟达在中国挣上900亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 7月5日,咨询机构SemiAnalysis发布报告称,英伟达在今年有望交付100万枚H20 GPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 考虑到这是一枚阉割过,且性价比较低的“对华特供版”芯片,基本可以认定,这100万枚芯片将在今年全部流入中国大陆市场。以目前该型芯片1.2-1.3万美元的渠道定价来看,H20芯片可以为英伟达带来至少120亿美元的收入,已经超过了这家公司去年在华总营收。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 不过,H20在中国市场的实际情况,可能并没有如咨询机构预估的那般乐观。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 一位服务器经销商向虎嗅表示,目前一台H20八卡服务器,定价大约在120万元,而性能大幅领先的满配H100 NVLink版本的八卡服务器价格为270万元上下,而且是现货。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 尽管后者早早被列入禁止对华出售的名单中,但在非官方渠道中,这款芯片的货源基本没有断过,甚至在今年二季度H200开售后,这款芯片的价格还下跌了约10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> “无论怎么看,H20的性价比都还是太低。”这位服务器经销商提到,即便是同国内的解决方案相比,H20都难言有多大的竞争优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> “阉割版”,但还挺良心的?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 与同系列芯片不同,H20是一枚“赶工”性质非常明显的产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在去年10月美国升级芯片禁令后,原本就被视为阉割版芯片的A800/H800,甚至是消费级产品RTX4090都被纳入禁令的管制范围。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但仅在一个月后,就有台湾地区媒体报道称,英伟达向代工厂下了H20芯片的订单。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在如此短的时间内,英伟达不可能重新设计一款芯片,最大的可能是基于既有型号进行有针对性的调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 比如新规中取消了将“互联带宽”作为限制芯片的识别参数,英伟达就将H20的HBM3显存容量拉高到96Gb,使显存带宽提高到4.0Tb/s;又比如新规新增了“性能密度”的限制,英伟达就向算力规格大砍一刀,使其理论性能仅为296TFLOP,相当于H100芯片的15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 至于那些新规没有提到的,比如PCIe Gen5扩展卡、八路HGX,英伟达全部保留了下来。值得一提的是,H20还有非常高的卡间互联速度,其NV Link带宽达到900Gb/s,很适合组建大规模集群。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但这些特征组合在一起,却形成了一个很尴尬的事实:在算力大幅削减的情况下,H20的BOM很可能跟H100齐平,甚至高于后者。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 原因在于,存储颗粒一直是高性能计算卡成本的“大头”,比如H100芯片中,HBM3颗粒的采购就要占到60%左右,而在H20芯片上,英伟达又不得不为其配备更高规格的显存容量,以弥补算力不足的缺陷。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 基本可以断定,H20在英伟达高性能计算卡中,属于利润率最低的存在。相较于1.2-1.3万美元的售价,与它同成本的H100目前定价为2.5-3万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 从这个角度来看,H20算是英伟达的一款良心产品了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 英伟达自然不甘心于让一款单品拉低公司整体的毛利表现,但自去年芯片禁令升级后,英伟达四季度在中国大陆的营收,从上一季度的40.3亿降低至19.46亿,其中国区数据中心营收占比也从22%滑落至8%,英伟达急需用一款产品去稳住在中国的市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> H20就是英伟达拿出的诚意之作,但还是那个问题,H20的算力实在羸弱,这个硬伤无法被忽视。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 华为或与之一战?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 实际上,英伟达曾在今年2月进行过一次官方调价,在调价之前H20芯片的价格为2.3万美元,尽管英伟达表示降价的原因是“供货充足”,但如此大幅的价格调整,主要原因大概率还是销量没有达到预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> “国内大厂基本不会考虑H20服务器,都是闭眼买H100,而那些体量相对小的厂商也认为有点划不来。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 有服务器经销商向笔者算了一笔账,现在H100的服务器单机租赁费用大概是8-9万元/月,而算力仅有前者六分之一的H20服务器价格为120万元上下,即便不考虑算力损耗的问题,厂商也需要购买6台H20服务器,才能与H100服务器相齐平。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 这样一对比,H20虽然是英伟达利润率最低的产品,但对于客户来说,实在称不上有性价比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而对于英伟达来说,还有一个不可忽视的因素是国内同类型竞品,比如华为昇腾910B。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 与H20相比,910B在单卡算力(FP16)上几乎相当于前者的一倍。相应地,910B价格也要高于H20,服务器经销商向笔者表示,目前910B的服务器价格已经超过170万元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 抛开价格,从实际表现来看,二者的竞争互有胜负手。910B强在算力和能效比上,H20则胜在软件生态与互联上。最直接的例子就是,H20兼容所有的英伟达H系列卡,而且具备极高的访存能力,在搭建算力集群时,能够更好地避免算力损耗。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,这个集群规模是有上限的,比如各地筹划的“万P计算集群”,如果用H20搭建,那么0.15P单卡运算能力就意味着十万颗级别的GPU,组网难度极大。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 另外一个值得关注的问题是,英伟达与华为谁能更加稳定地供应产品?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此前,就有业内人士向笔者提到过,对于那些急于购买搭建算力中心的厂商来说,H20可能是更现实的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 一方面,英伟达的软件生态更加成熟,厂商的适配工作量要小得多;另一方面,目前无论是政策还是资本方,都对于算力中心的芯片国产化率有一定要求,910B的需求量非常大,相应地交付周期也比较长。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 这一说法笔者也在服务器经销商处得到了验证,对方向笔者表示,“在英伟达调价前,行业内客户对于910B的咨询要远大于H20,但现在也有客户对H20展现出了兴趣,因为有充足的现货。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 有趣的是,二者可能并不是完全意义上的竞争关系,因为有业内人士向笔者表示,在他所在的公司,910B和H20被归为不同分级,在采购上并不冲突。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112420806","content_text":"作者 | 丸都山 7月8日周一,英伟达“回来了”。盘中股价一度上涨至近三周高点,市值重新站上3.2万亿美元。 一枚性能大幅缩水AI芯片,可能会让英伟达在中国挣上900亿。 7月5日,咨询机构SemiAnalysis发布报告称,英伟达在今年有望交付100万枚H20 GPU。 考虑到这是一枚阉割过,且性价比较低的“对华特供版”芯片,基本可以认定,这100万枚芯片将在今年全部流入中国大陆市场。以目前该型芯片1.2-1.3万美元的渠道定价来看,H20芯片可以为英伟达带来至少120亿美元的收入,已经超过了这家公司去年在华总营收。 不过,H20在中国市场的实际情况,可能并没有如咨询机构预估的那般乐观。 一位服务器经销商向虎嗅表示,目前一台H20八卡服务器,定价大约在120万元,而性能大幅领先的满配H100 NVLink版本的八卡服务器价格为270万元上下,而且是现货。 尽管后者早早被列入禁止对华出售的名单中,但在非官方渠道中,这款芯片的货源基本没有断过,甚至在今年二季度H200开售后,这款芯片的价格还下跌了约10%。 “无论怎么看,H20的性价比都还是太低。”这位服务器经销商提到,即便是同国内的解决方案相比,H20都难言有多大的竞争优势。 “阉割版”,但还挺良心的? 与同系列芯片不同,H20是一枚“赶工”性质非常明显的产品。 在去年10月美国升级芯片禁令后,原本就被视为阉割版芯片的A800/H800,甚至是消费级产品RTX4090都被纳入禁令的管制范围。 但仅在一个月后,就有台湾地区媒体报道称,英伟达向代工厂下了H20芯片的订单。 在如此短的时间内,英伟达不可能重新设计一款芯片,最大的可能是基于既有型号进行有针对性的调整。 比如新规中取消了将“互联带宽”作为限制芯片的识别参数,英伟达就将H20的HBM3显存容量拉高到96Gb,使显存带宽提高到4.0Tb/s;又比如新规新增了“性能密度”的限制,英伟达就向算力规格大砍一刀,使其理论性能仅为296TFLOP,相当于H100芯片的15%。 至于那些新规没有提到的,比如PCIe Gen5扩展卡、八路HGX,英伟达全部保留了下来。值得一提的是,H20还有非常高的卡间互联速度,其NV Link带宽达到900Gb/s,很适合组建大规模集群。 但这些特征组合在一起,却形成了一个很尴尬的事实:在算力大幅削减的情况下,H20的BOM很可能跟H100齐平,甚至高于后者。 原因在于,存储颗粒一直是高性能计算卡成本的“大头”,比如H100芯片中,HBM3颗粒的采购就要占到60%左右,而在H20芯片上,英伟达又不得不为其配备更高规格的显存容量,以弥补算力不足的缺陷。 基本可以断定,H20在英伟达高性能计算卡中,属于利润率最低的存在。相较于1.2-1.3万美元的售价,与它同成本的H100目前定价为2.5-3万美元。 从这个角度来看,H20算是英伟达的一款良心产品了。 英伟达自然不甘心于让一款单品拉低公司整体的毛利表现,但自去年芯片禁令升级后,英伟达四季度在中国大陆的营收,从上一季度的40.3亿降低至19.46亿,其中国区数据中心营收占比也从22%滑落至8%,英伟达急需用一款产品去稳住在中国的市场份额。 H20就是英伟达拿出的诚意之作,但还是那个问题,H20的算力实在羸弱,这个硬伤无法被忽视。 华为或与之一战? 实际上,英伟达曾在今年2月进行过一次官方调价,在调价之前H20芯片的价格为2.3万美元,尽管英伟达表示降价的原因是“供货充足”,但如此大幅的价格调整,主要原因大概率还是销量没有达到预期。 “国内大厂基本不会考虑H20服务器,都是闭眼买H100,而那些体量相对小的厂商也认为有点划不来。” 有服务器经销商向笔者算了一笔账,现在H100的服务器单机租赁费用大概是8-9万元/月,而算力仅有前者六分之一的H20服务器价格为120万元上下,即便不考虑算力损耗的问题,厂商也需要购买6台H20服务器,才能与H100服务器相齐平。 这样一对比,H20虽然是英伟达利润率最低的产品,但对于客户来说,实在称不上有性价比。 而对于英伟达来说,还有一个不可忽视的因素是国内同类型竞品,比如华为昇腾910B。 与H20相比,910B在单卡算力(FP16)上几乎相当于前者的一倍。相应地,910B价格也要高于H20,服务器经销商向笔者表示,目前910B的服务器价格已经超过170万元。 抛开价格,从实际表现来看,二者的竞争互有胜负手。910B强在算力和能效比上,H20则胜在软件生态与互联上。最直接的例子就是,H20兼容所有的英伟达H系列卡,而且具备极高的访存能力,在搭建算力集群时,能够更好地避免算力损耗。 当然,这个集群规模是有上限的,比如各地筹划的“万P计算集群”,如果用H20搭建,那么0.15P单卡运算能力就意味着十万颗级别的GPU,组网难度极大。 另外一个值得关注的问题是,英伟达与华为谁能更加稳定地供应产品? 此前,就有业内人士向笔者提到过,对于那些急于购买搭建算力中心的厂商来说,H20可能是更现实的选择。 一方面,英伟达的软件生态更加成熟,厂商的适配工作量要小得多;另一方面,目前无论是政策还是资本方,都对于算力中心的芯片国产化率有一定要求,910B的需求量非常大,相应地交付周期也比较长。 这一说法笔者也在服务器经销商处得到了验证,对方向笔者表示,“在英伟达调价前,行业内客户对于910B的咨询要远大于H20,但现在也有客户对H20展现出了兴趣,因为有充足的现货。” 有趣的是,二者可能并不是完全意义上的竞争关系,因为有业内人士向笔者表示,在他所在的公司,910B和H20被归为不同分级,在采购上并不冲突。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324770017067184,"gmtCreate":1720318610135,"gmtModify":1720318612432,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我以前喜欢买便宜的,我现在喜欢高价票,包括A股里面也是的","listText":"我以前喜欢买便宜的,我现在喜欢高价票,包括A股里面也是的","text":"我以前喜欢买便宜的,我现在喜欢高价票,包括A股里面也是的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324770017067184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324706865344696,"gmtCreate":1720303193424,"gmtModify":1720303195461,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达好歹也要摸下200。已经成了生产力了","listText":"英伟达好歹也要摸下200。已经成了生产力了","text":"英伟达好歹也要摸下200。已经成了生产力了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324706865344696","repostId":"324626378547424","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":324626378547424,"gmtCreate":1720283678186,"gmtModify":1720623604367,"author":{"id":"3503101861637632","authorId":"3503101861637632","name":"萧蝶sally","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47359d8d1cd34a1d4a1e6b243e7814e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503101861637632","idStr":"3503101861637632"},"themes":[],"title":"对不起,我不看好英伟达","htmlText":"感觉全球的人都在看好英伟达,看来还要收出不知道多少喜人的大阳线 而我们在这块被卡脖子掉队了所以整体低迷至此 唯一的希望就是民族韧性,五千年来我们的弹性一直非常大,多少次死里求生 也许是因为我生在这里长在这里,我没得选才这么安慰自己吧。 同时也寄希望于AI叫好不叫座,最终没找到盈利模式,这样他们就炸掉了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 也不知道什么时候会炸,也可能就成功了,到时候期望云服务(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a>云上算力)能卖点小铲子喝点汤[流泪] 亏就亏吧,生在这里长在这里,我没得选 这是时代的洪流,我个人选择的站队,我在想毕竟曾经我们先烈也是那个少数人 反正大家都不知道最终谁输谁赢,更不知道多久才能分出输赢,对立面也有太多太多的家人朋友。 就原谅我这个叛逆者吧,祝愿大家能好[爱心] 2024.7.7 sally","listText":"感觉全球的人都在看好英伟达,看来还要收出不知道多少喜人的大阳线 而我们在这块被卡脖子掉队了所以整体低迷至此 唯一的希望就是民族韧性,五千年来我们的弹性一直非常大,多少次死里求生 也许是因为我生在这里长在这里,我没得选才这么安慰自己吧。 同时也寄希望于AI叫好不叫座,最终没找到盈利模式,这样他们就炸掉了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 也不知道什么时候会炸,也可能就成功了,到时候期望云服务(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a>云上算力)能卖点小铲子喝点汤[流泪] 亏就亏吧,生在这里长在这里,我没得选 这是时代的洪流,我个人选择的站队,我在想毕竟曾经我们先烈也是那个少数人 反正大家都不知道最终谁输谁赢,更不知道多久才能分出输赢,对立面也有太多太多的家人朋友。 就原谅我这个叛逆者吧,祝愿大家能好[爱心] 2024.7.7 sally","text":"感觉全球的人都在看好英伟达,看来还要收出不知道多少喜人的大阳线 而我们在这块被卡脖子掉队了所以整体低迷至此 唯一的希望就是民族韧性,五千年来我们的弹性一直非常大,多少次死里求生 也许是因为我生在这里长在这里,我没得选才这么安慰自己吧。 同时也寄希望于AI叫好不叫座,最终没找到盈利模式,这样他们就炸掉了。$英伟达(NVDA)$ 也不知道什么时候会炸,也可能就成功了,到时候期望云服务($阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 云上算力)能卖点小铲子喝点汤[流泪] 亏就亏吧,生在这里长在这里,我没得选 这是时代的洪流,我个人选择的站队,我在想毕竟曾经我们先烈也是那个少数人 反正大家都不知道最终谁输谁赢,更不知道多久才能分出输赢,对立面也有太多太多的家人朋友。 就原谅我这个叛逆者吧,祝愿大家能好[爱心] 2024.7.7 sally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324626378547424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324233142567096,"gmtCreate":1720187538449,"gmtModify":1720187540246,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 182买的,第二天就卖了,买的mara,涨14个点,后面第二天把mara卖了,追高特斯拉226价格,综合来看还是亏了,因为特斯拉可以融资,MARA不可以,利润上来说亏了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 182买的,第二天就卖了,买的mara,涨14个点,后面第二天把mara卖了,追高特斯拉226价格,综合来看还是亏了,因为特斯拉可以融资,MARA不可以,利润上来说亏了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 182买的,第二天就卖了,买的mara,涨14个点,后面第二天把mara卖了,追高特斯拉226价格,综合来看还是亏了,因为特斯拉可以融资,MARA不可以,利润上来说亏了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324233142567096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323724967457072,"gmtCreate":1720056638366,"gmtModify":1720058179845,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这逼以前不是说看到3000的嘛?才涨几天就减持了,搞的成了股票都是这些大资本的游戏是吧[喷血] [捂脸] ","listText":"这逼以前不是说看到3000的嘛?才涨几天就减持了,搞的成了股票都是这些大资本的游戏是吧[喷血] [捂脸] ","text":"这逼以前不是说看到3000的嘛?才涨几天就减持了,搞的成了股票都是这些大资本的游戏是吧[喷血] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323724967457072","repostId":"1189960146","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189960146","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1720050777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189960146?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-04 07:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“木头姐”旗下ETF于9个月来首次抛售特斯拉股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189960146","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月4日,最新公布的资料显示,当地时间7月2日,绰号“木头姐”的著名基金经理凯茜·伍德领导的方舟投资对其投资组合实施重大调整,旗下两只ETF——ARKK和ARKW分别减持$特斯拉(TSLA)$56,425股和6,442股,价值约1454万美元。其中这是ARKK自去年10月以来首次出售特斯拉股票。7月3日,特斯拉股价连续第七天上涨,创一年来最长连涨纪录。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月4日,最新公布的资料显示,当地时间7月2日,绰号“木头姐”的著名基金经理凯茜·伍德领导的方舟投资对其投资组合实施重大调整,旗下两只ETF——ARKK和ARKW分别减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>56,425股和6,442股,价值约1454万美元。其中这是ARKK自去年10月以来首次出售特斯拉股票。7月3日,特斯拉股价连续第七天上涨,创一年来最长连涨纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f83e18139f5521fb1146d5de695cc21\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“木头姐”旗下ETF于9个月来首次抛售特斯拉股票</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“木头姐”旗下ETF于9个月来首次抛售特斯拉股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-04 07:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月4日,最新公布的资料显示,当地时间7月2日,绰号“木头姐”的著名基金经理凯茜·伍德领导的方舟投资对其投资组合实施重大调整,旗下两只ETF——ARKK和ARKW分别减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>56,425股和6,442股,价值约1454万美元。其中这是ARKK自去年10月以来首次出售特斯拉股票。7月3日,特斯拉股价连续第七天上涨,创一年来最长连涨纪录。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f83e18139f5521fb1146d5de695cc21\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A 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Shares","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189960146","content_text":"7月4日,最新公布的资料显示,当地时间7月2日,绰号“木头姐”的著名基金经理凯茜·伍德领导的方舟投资对其投资组合实施重大调整,旗下两只ETF——ARKK和ARKW分别减持特斯拉56,425股和6,442股,价值约1454万美元。其中这是ARKK自去年10月以来首次出售特斯拉股票。7月3日,特斯拉股价连续第七天上涨,创一年来最长连涨纪录。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323462065057912,"gmtCreate":1719992421852,"gmtModify":1719992423751,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 多呀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 多呀","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 多呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323462065057912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320324158279784,"gmtCreate":1719241266320,"gmtModify":1719241904288,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 唉,反正不懂,就相信华尔街那个疯女人吧,至少别人长的漂亮,而且还很专业,至少比我这个穷**丝要专业吧?全力押注了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 唉,反正不懂,就相信华尔街那个疯女人吧,至少别人长的漂亮,而且还很专业,至少比我这个穷**丝要专业吧?全力押注了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 唉,反正不懂,就相信华尔街那个疯女人吧,至少别人长的漂亮,而且还很专业,至少比我这个穷**丝要专业吧?全力押注了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320324158279784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319278751154224,"gmtCreate":1718978992772,"gmtModify":1718978995254,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对,还是留在国外吧,在国内了,又是抄袭的,还说自己伟大","listText":"对,还是留在国外吧,在国内了,又是抄袭的,还说自己伟大","text":"对,还是留在国外吧,在国内了,又是抄袭的,还说自己伟大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319278751154224","repostId":"1144695188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144695188","pubTimestamp":1718955980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144695188?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-21 15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695188","media":"新浪科技","summary":"大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> 文丨周文猛</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做!</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。 “中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先” 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看? 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了? 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。 “年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了” 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情? 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。 “大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了” 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么? 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗? 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做! 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。 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不妙呀,头肩顶形态,不好做了,国际社会变化太快","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314324427047080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310906379743344,"gmtCreate":1716932357831,"gmtModify":1716932359314,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 空军开始行动了嘛","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 空军开始行动了嘛","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 空军开始行动了嘛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310906379743344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310472786931784,"gmtCreate":1716826354189,"gmtModify":1716826355812,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HGmain\">$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$ </a> 华尔街是到底想短期诱多铜好杀呢?还是想趁这个机会利用个人投资者好拉高铜呢,现在还没摸清楚他们的动机,长期看肯定向上,可是这个介入的时机和点在哪呢?这个很重要,要不然就一大批人被收割了,别忘了上次铜创新高,出来长空的,发布空头信息的就是华尔街里面的那一批同行","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HGmain\">$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$ </a> 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2407(HGmain)$ </a> 大锅,你是仙人指路,还是到了短期高点呀[捂脸] [笑哭] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HGmain\">$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$ </a> 大锅,你是仙人指路,还是到了短期高点呀[捂脸] [笑哭] ","text":"$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$ 大锅,你是仙人指路,还是到了短期高点呀[捂脸] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305850356154384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3511857498341510","authorId":"3511857498341510","name":"Fuck_A_stock","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/014c816fa8896f630fe690ea45a691a4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3511857498341510","idStr":"3511857498341510"},"content":"吓死人啊!不敢空了","text":"吓死人啊!不敢空了","html":"吓死人啊!不敢空了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305618542051392,"gmtCreate":1715648406319,"gmtModify":1715648407619,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HGmain\">$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$ </a> 今天能上5嘛?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HGmain\">$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$ </a> 今天能上5嘛?","text":"$黄铜主连 2407(HGmain)$ 今天能上5嘛?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305618542051392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3511857498341510","authorId":"3511857498341510","name":"Fuck_A_stock","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/014c816fa8896f630fe690ea45a691a4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3511857498341510","idStr":"3511857498341510"},"content":"美铜大涨,伦铜沪铜不跟随啊!这是为啥","text":"美铜大涨,伦铜沪铜不跟随啊!这是为啥","html":"美铜大涨,伦铜沪铜不跟随啊!这是为啥"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301688609886264,"gmtCreate":1714660528393,"gmtModify":1714660530052,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"换香港了","listText":"换香港了","text":"换香港了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301688609886264","repostId":"1141986514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141986514","pubTimestamp":1714655574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141986514?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-02 21:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“五月卖出,然后走人”?华尔街齐呼:别信!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141986514","media":"金十数据","summary":"这句古老谚语经不起推敲。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“五月卖出,然后走人”(Sell in May and go away)是华尔街流传的一句古老谚语,它强调了这样一个现象:从历史上看,美股表现最差的六个月在5月到10月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而,如果仔细观察美股在这一时期的历史表现,就会发现其实并没有那么糟糕,而且当然没有糟糕到需要仅仅因为日历从4月翻到5月就抛售股票的程度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">LPL Financial的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特(Adam Turnquist)强调,自1950年以来,<strong>标普500指数(SPX)在这六个月期间的平均回报率实际上是正的</strong>,为1.7%。如果回顾的是过去10年的历史,这一数字将跃升至4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特恩奎斯特在最近的一份报告中表示:“除非投资者能够在其他资产类别中寻求更高的回报,否则退出股市可能不是最好的策略,因为在历年的5月至10月期间,股市六个月平均回报率仍为正 。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">卡森集团市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)也指出,美股一年中表现最弱的六个月里却出现了正回报。他进一步补充说,5月份本身就是股市表现相对稳健的一个月,过去10年里有9年实现了正回报,平均涨幅为0.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fundstrat的汤姆·李(Tom Lee)也对这些数据进行了分析,发现自1985年以来,“股市在5月份的表现出人意料地好”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">李强调,过去40年来,5月份美股回报率为正的概率为77%,而今年,继第一季度实现正回报、4月份出现负回报之后,5月份回报率为正的概率进一步上升至83%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后,德特里克还发现,<strong>在2024年这样的总统选举年,美股往往会在11月反弹之前出现夏季反弹</strong>,5月至10月期间平均上涨2.3%,其中78%的时间会出现上涨。“(难道正确的是)五月买入并留下?”德特里克反问道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367a5a5163cd051d731f5cc0baef26f9\" alt=\"在大选年,美股夏季反弹很常见\" title=\"在大选年,美股夏季反弹很常见\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"376\"/><span>在大选年,美股夏季反弹很常见</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于美国通胀率持续高于预期,而第一季度GDP增速低于预期,导致滞胀担忧加剧,美股4月惨烈收官。然而,美国银行指出,上个月标普500指数的下滑促使卖方策略师从股票和债券转向现金,<strong>推动美国银行的一项逆向指标接近发出是时候买入美股的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Savita Subramanian等策略师称,美国银行的卖方指标(SSI)在4月下降33个基点至54.6%,略低于15年均值。她表示,“股市回落加上地缘政治紧张局势加剧和对滞胀的担忧可能促成了这种看跌走势”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">策略师们表示,SSI一直是一个可靠的反向指标,该指标现在距离“买入”水平仅差3.3个百分点。他们指出,当市场情绪如此低迷或更低时,未来12个月内股市上涨的概率为94%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行经济学家仍认为经济的“增长前景健康”。根据FactSet的数据,今年消费者支出保持稳定,企业利润有望在第一季度实现至少7%的增长。 策略师们补充道:“我们<strong>坚持对标普500指数年底达到5400点的预测</strong>”,这意味着到到年底前股市将上涨7%。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“五月卖出,然后走人”?华尔街齐呼:别信!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“五月卖出,然后走人”?华尔街齐呼:别信!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-02 21:12 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/137859><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“五月卖出,然后走人”(Sell in May and go away)是华尔街流传的一句古老谚语,它强调了这样一个现象:从历史上看,美股表现最差的六个月在5月到10月。然而,如果仔细观察美股在这一时期的历史表现,就会发现其实并没有那么糟糕,而且当然没有糟糕到需要仅仅因为日历从4月翻到5月就抛售股票的程度。LPL Financial的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特(Adam Turnquist)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/137859\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/137859","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141986514","content_text":"“五月卖出,然后走人”(Sell in May and go away)是华尔街流传的一句古老谚语,它强调了这样一个现象:从历史上看,美股表现最差的六个月在5月到10月。然而,如果仔细观察美股在这一时期的历史表现,就会发现其实并没有那么糟糕,而且当然没有糟糕到需要仅仅因为日历从4月翻到5月就抛售股票的程度。LPL Financial的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特(Adam Turnquist)强调,自1950年以来,标普500指数(SPX)在这六个月期间的平均回报率实际上是正的,为1.7%。如果回顾的是过去10年的历史,这一数字将跃升至4%。特恩奎斯特在最近的一份报告中表示:“除非投资者能够在其他资产类别中寻求更高的回报,否则退出股市可能不是最好的策略,因为在历年的5月至10月期间,股市六个月平均回报率仍为正 。”卡森集团市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)也指出,美股一年中表现最弱的六个月里却出现了正回报。他进一步补充说,5月份本身就是股市表现相对稳健的一个月,过去10年里有9年实现了正回报,平均涨幅为0.7%。Fundstrat的汤姆·李(Tom Lee)也对这些数据进行了分析,发现自1985年以来,“股市在5月份的表现出人意料地好”。李强调,过去40年来,5月份美股回报率为正的概率为77%,而今年,继第一季度实现正回报、4月份出现负回报之后,5月份回报率为正的概率进一步上升至83%。最后,德特里克还发现,在2024年这样的总统选举年,美股往往会在11月反弹之前出现夏季反弹,5月至10月期间平均上涨2.3%,其中78%的时间会出现上涨。“(难道正确的是)五月买入并留下?”德特里克反问道。在大选年,美股夏季反弹很常见由于美国通胀率持续高于预期,而第一季度GDP增速低于预期,导致滞胀担忧加剧,美股4月惨烈收官。然而,美国银行指出,上个月标普500指数的下滑促使卖方策略师从股票和债券转向现金,推动美国银行的一项逆向指标接近发出是时候买入美股的信号。Savita Subramanian等策略师称,美国银行的卖方指标(SSI)在4月下降33个基点至54.6%,略低于15年均值。她表示,“股市回落加上地缘政治紧张局势加剧和对滞胀的担忧可能促成了这种看跌走势”。策略师们表示,SSI一直是一个可靠的反向指标,该指标现在距离“买入”水平仅差3.3个百分点。他们指出,当市场情绪如此低迷或更低时,未来12个月内股市上涨的概率为94%。美国银行经济学家仍认为经济的“增长前景健康”。根据FactSet的数据,今年消费者支出保持稳定,企业利润有望在第一季度实现至少7%的增长。 策略师们补充道:“我们坚持对标普500指数年底达到5400点的预测”,这意味着到到年底前股市将上涨7%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298753562091808,"gmtCreate":1713946596446,"gmtModify":1713946597641,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ </a> 会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ </a> 会","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298753562091808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298084942934296,"gmtCreate":1713803380219,"gmtModify":1713803381457,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ </a> 会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ </a> 会","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298084942934296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290556784246960,"gmtCreate":1711962733976,"gmtModify":1711962956240,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是真的,因为货币超发,钱不值钱了,股市是蓄水池,然后汇率增值股市就不得鸟啦//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3475143061422691\">@冯榕</a>:胡说八道!","listText":"是真的,因为货币超发,钱不值钱了,股市是蓄水池,然后汇率增值股市就不得鸟啦//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3475143061422691\">@冯榕</a>:胡说八道!","text":"是真的,因为货币超发,钱不值钱了,股市是蓄水池,然后汇率增值股市就不得鸟啦//@冯榕:胡说八道!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290556784246960","repostId":"290553478877504","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":290553478877504,"gmtCreate":1711961800727,"gmtModify":1711961802235,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3475143061422691","idStr":"3475143061422691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"胡说八道!","listText":"胡说八道!","text":"胡说八道!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290553478877504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":286451094614088,"gmtCreate":1710962013026,"gmtModify":1710962014178,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a> 真强呀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a> 真强呀","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 真强呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286451094614088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":325909066060080,"gmtCreate":1720569306653,"gmtModify":1720569309096,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股,确实是和时间做朋友,A股是搞段时间就得跑,有时候今天进明天就得跑,反正挺坑的","listText":"美股,确实是和时间做朋友,A股是搞段时间就得跑,有时候今天进明天就得跑,反正挺坑的","text":"美股,确实是和时间做朋友,A股是搞段时间就得跑,有时候今天进明天就得跑,反正挺坑的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325909066060080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":267882844295432,"gmtCreate":1706425554981,"gmtModify":1706425556432,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [开心] 放大招了","listText":"[财迷] [开心] 放大招了","text":"[财迷] [开心] 放大招了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267882844295432","repostId":"1142335194","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142335194","pubTimestamp":1706425354,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142335194?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-28 15:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"证监会进一步加强融券业务监管,全面暂停限售股出借","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142335194","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"证监会经充分论证评估,进一步优化了融券机制。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月28日,据证监会官网最新消息,对于融券业务的最新出台政策,两大核心内容:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一是全面暂停限售股出借,将于1月29日(下周一)起实施;二是将转融券市场化约定申报由实时可用调整为次日可用,对融券效率进行限制,将在今年3月18日起实施。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,沪深交易所也发布了相应的业务通知。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下为证监会原文:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为贯彻以投资者为本的监管理念,加强对限售股出借的监管,证监会经充分论证评估,进一步优化了融券机制。具体包括:<strong>一是全面暂停限售股出借</strong>;<strong>二是将转融券市场化约定申报由实时可用调整为次日可用,对融券效率进行限制</strong>。因涉及系统调整等因素,第一项措施自1月29日起实施,第二项措施自3月18日起实施。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年10月,证监会取消上市公司高管及核心员工通过参与战略配售设立的专项资产管理计划出借,并限制其他战略投资者在上市初期的出借方式和比例,新规实施以来,战略投资者出借余额降幅近四成,取得良好效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在总结前期优化融券机制安排经验的基础上,按照“稳妥推进、分步实施”的思路,此次证监会优化融券机制,主要体现以下监管意图:一是突出公平合理,降低融券效率,制约机构在信息、工具运用方面的优势,给各类投资者更充足的时间消化市场信息,营造更加公平的市场秩序。二是突出从严监管,阶段性限制所有限售股出借,进一步加强对限售股融券监管,同时,坚决打击借融券之名行绕道减持、套现之实的违法违规行为。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下一步,证监会将持续强化监管,把制度的公平性放在更加突出位置,及时总结评估运行效果,依法维护市场秩序,切实保护广大投资者的合法权益。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62699620dbc32d88e8cc5bb470737088\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沪深交易所也发布通知称,决定暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票,<strong>本通知实施前尚未了结的出借合约到期不得展期</strong>,<strong>自2024年1月29日起施行</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下为上交所原文:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: center;\">关于暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票的通</p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">上证发〔2024〕11号</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">各市场参与人:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 为进一步优化融券制度,经中国证监会批准,上海证券交易所(以下简称本所)决定暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票。本通知实施前尚未了结的出借合约到期不得展期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 本通知自2024年1月29日起施行。本所此前发布的其他业务规则与本通知规定不一致的,以本通知为准。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 各会员应当根据本通知的要求认真做好相关业务和技术系统准备,并做好前端检查和控制,确保业务平稳运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 特此通知。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 上海证券交易所</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 2024年1月28日</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下为深交所原文:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: center;\">关于暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票的通知</p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">深证上〔2024〕84号</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">各市场参与人:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为进一步优化融券制度,经中国证监会批准,深圳证券交易所(以下简称本所)决定暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票。本通知实施前尚未了结的出借合约到期不得展期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本通知自2024年1月29日起施行。本所此前发布的其他业务规则与本通知规定不一致的,以本通知为准。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">各会员应当根据本通知的要求认真做好相关业务和技术系统准备,并做好前端检查和控制,确保业务平稳运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">深圳证券交易所</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2024年1月28日</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>证监会进一步加强融券业务监管,全面暂停限售股出借</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n证监会进一步加强融券业务监管,全面暂停限售股出借\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-28 15:02 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3707354><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月28日,据证监会官网最新消息,对于融券业务的最新出台政策,两大核心内容:一是全面暂停限售股出借,将于1月29日(下周一)起实施;二是将转融券市场化约定申报由实时可用调整为次日可用,对融券效率进行限制,将在今年3月18日起实施。与此同时,沪深交易所也发布了相应的业务通知。以下为证监会原文:为贯彻以投资者为本的监管理念,加强对限售股出借的监管,证监会经充分论证评估,进一步优化了融券机制。具体包括:...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3707354\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47235940cac4ace00aaf85be84ee412","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3707354","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1142335194","content_text":"1月28日,据证监会官网最新消息,对于融券业务的最新出台政策,两大核心内容:一是全面暂停限售股出借,将于1月29日(下周一)起实施;二是将转融券市场化约定申报由实时可用调整为次日可用,对融券效率进行限制,将在今年3月18日起实施。与此同时,沪深交易所也发布了相应的业务通知。以下为证监会原文:为贯彻以投资者为本的监管理念,加强对限售股出借的监管,证监会经充分论证评估,进一步优化了融券机制。具体包括:一是全面暂停限售股出借;二是将转融券市场化约定申报由实时可用调整为次日可用,对融券效率进行限制。因涉及系统调整等因素,第一项措施自1月29日起实施,第二项措施自3月18日起实施。2023年10月,证监会取消上市公司高管及核心员工通过参与战略配售设立的专项资产管理计划出借,并限制其他战略投资者在上市初期的出借方式和比例,新规实施以来,战略投资者出借余额降幅近四成,取得良好效果。在总结前期优化融券机制安排经验的基础上,按照“稳妥推进、分步实施”的思路,此次证监会优化融券机制,主要体现以下监管意图:一是突出公平合理,降低融券效率,制约机构在信息、工具运用方面的优势,给各类投资者更充足的时间消化市场信息,营造更加公平的市场秩序。二是突出从严监管,阶段性限制所有限售股出借,进一步加强对限售股融券监管,同时,坚决打击借融券之名行绕道减持、套现之实的违法违规行为。下一步,证监会将持续强化监管,把制度的公平性放在更加突出位置,及时总结评估运行效果,依法维护市场秩序,切实保护广大投资者的合法权益。沪深交易所也发布通知称,决定暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票,本通知实施前尚未了结的出借合约到期不得展期,自2024年1月29日起施行。以下为上交所原文:关于暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票的通上证发〔2024〕11号各市场参与人: 为进一步优化融券制度,经中国证监会批准,上海证券交易所(以下简称本所)决定暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票。本通知实施前尚未了结的出借合约到期不得展期。 本通知自2024年1月29日起施行。本所此前发布的其他业务规则与本通知规定不一致的,以本通知为准。 各会员应当根据本通知的要求认真做好相关业务和技术系统准备,并做好前端检查和控制,确保业务平稳运行。 特此通知。 上海证券交易所 2024年1月28日以下为深交所原文:关于暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票的通知深证上〔2024〕84号各市场参与人:为进一步优化融券制度,经中国证监会批准,深圳证券交易所(以下简称本所)决定暂停战略投资者在承诺的持有期限内出借获配股票。本通知实施前尚未了结的出借合约到期不得展期。本通知自2024年1月29日起施行。本所此前发布的其他业务规则与本通知规定不一致的,以本通知为准。各会员应当根据本通知的要求认真做好相关业务和技术系统准备,并做好前端检查和控制,确保业务平稳运行。深圳证券交易所2024年1月28日","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":909686782,"gmtCreate":1556285829646,"gmtModify":1704800432097,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Digital Power 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style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美联储</strong>:最早明年3月开始降息,3月、5月和6月连续降息3次,每次降息25个基点,下半年还有两次降息,2025年三次季度降息;</p></li><li><p><strong>欧洲央行:</strong>明年4月进行首次降息,连续降息175个基点,2025年初利率水平将从目前的4%降至2.25%;</p></li><li><p><strong>英国央行:</strong>最早明年6月开始降息,连续下调225个基点,2025年中期利率水平降至3%左右;</p></li><li><p><strong>其他经济体</strong>:汇率压力缓解,下调拉美新兴经济体墨西哥、秘鲁和智利降息预期,但亚洲新兴市场印度和印度尼西亚可能提前降息,澳大利亚和新西兰也可能更早地降息。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>具体来看,Jan Hatzius指出,<strong>今年以来全球通胀持续大幅下降,几个主要央行可能更早、更激进地降息:</strong></p><blockquote><p>对疫情后通胀大幅飙升的经济体(不包括日本在内的十国集团加上新兴市场提前加息的经济体)进行平均计算,我们估计过去三个月的核心通胀率折合年率为2.2%,11月份仅为1.3%。</p></blockquote><p>美联储货币政策预期转变尤其突然,鲍威尔表示希望在通胀降至2%之前“提前”降息。Jan Hatzius指出:</p><blockquote><p><strong>我们认为2.5%的核心CPI是一个门槛</strong>,11月CPI和PPI的数据表明,核心CPI通胀最早将在2024年2月达到2.5%,然后在5月进一步降至2.1%。由于2月份的数据在很大程度上根据3月中旬发布的CPI和PPI来预测,预计3月20日至21日的FOMC会议将进行首次降息,并至少连续三次降息25个基点,分别在3月、5月和6月。</p><p><strong>但在核心PCE接近2%的情况下,75个基点的降息使利率保持在4.5%至4.75%的水平,较FOMC对长期利率的中值估计高出200个基点。</strong>因此在下半年还会有两次季度降息,2024年总计五次降息,2025年将有三次季度降息,2025年9月利率将降至3.25%至3.5%。</p><p>我们对未来几个季度利率的看法与市场定价相同,原因是住房通胀放缓;<strong>然而在2024年中期之后,我们的预测比市场还要激进,我们对经济和就业更加乐观</strong>,在预计2024年实际GDP为2.0%,到2024年第四季度失业率将小幅下降至3.6%,而这将要求FOMC放慢降息速度。</p></blockquote><p>相比美联储,欧洲央行、英国央行表态更强硬,这意味着开始降息的时间将稍晚,高盛指出:</p><blockquote><p><strong>欧央行更有可能在4月份开始降息,但由于欧洲通胀更为疲弱,经济增长也明显放缓,</strong>因此我们预计将连续降息175个基点,从目前的4%降至2025年初的2.25%,接近当前市场的定价。</p><p><strong>在英国,由于通胀更高,降息可能会晚一些开始,预计在明年6月进行首次降息,</strong>并预计从5.25%连续下调225个基点至2025年中期的3%,低于市场定价。</p></blockquote><p>其他经济体方面,高盛指出,由于美联储降息将缓解汇率压力,降低了墨西哥、秘鲁和智利等拉美经济体的降息预期。但提前了印度和印度尼西亚等亚洲国家的降息预期,澳大利亚和新西兰也可能提前降息。</p><p>此外,Jan Hatzius认为,<strong>稳健的经济增长、急剧下降的通胀、宽松的货币政策和较低的长期利率,将共同利好风险资产,</strong>因此股票和信贷策略师都大幅上调了回报预期:</p><blockquote><p>如果我们对经济前景的乐观预测是正确的,那么金融环境还有进一步放松的空间,这将强化对2024年“金融条件增长脉冲”(FCI衡量金融条件对经济增长的影响)的支持,我们可能进一步上调已经高于共识的增长预期。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛:央行们会很激进,美联储“明年降5次,后年降3次”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛:央行们会很激进,美联储“明年降5次,后年降3次”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-20 18:45 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704644><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着全球通胀持续大幅下降,全球货币政策将在2024年迎来转折。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在本周一发布了一份报告《大型去通胀》(The Great Disinflation),对2024年全球主要经济体货币政策进行展望:美联储:最早明年3月开始降息,3月、5月和6月连续降息3次,每次降息25个基点,下半年还有两次降息,2025年三次季度降息;欧洲央行:明年4月进行首次降息,连续降息175...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704644\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a5e55200ca2ac40667570a14b08724","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704644","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2392168875","content_text":"随着全球通胀持续大幅下降,全球货币政策将在2024年迎来转折。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在本周一发布了一份报告《大型去通胀》(The Great Disinflation),对2024年全球主要经济体货币政策进行展望:美联储:最早明年3月开始降息,3月、5月和6月连续降息3次,每次降息25个基点,下半年还有两次降息,2025年三次季度降息;欧洲央行:明年4月进行首次降息,连续降息175个基点,2025年初利率水平将从目前的4%降至2.25%;英国央行:最早明年6月开始降息,连续下调225个基点,2025年中期利率水平降至3%左右;其他经济体:汇率压力缓解,下调拉美新兴经济体墨西哥、秘鲁和智利降息预期,但亚洲新兴市场印度和印度尼西亚可能提前降息,澳大利亚和新西兰也可能更早地降息。具体来看,Jan Hatzius指出,今年以来全球通胀持续大幅下降,几个主要央行可能更早、更激进地降息:对疫情后通胀大幅飙升的经济体(不包括日本在内的十国集团加上新兴市场提前加息的经济体)进行平均计算,我们估计过去三个月的核心通胀率折合年率为2.2%,11月份仅为1.3%。美联储货币政策预期转变尤其突然,鲍威尔表示希望在通胀降至2%之前“提前”降息。Jan Hatzius指出:我们认为2.5%的核心CPI是一个门槛,11月CPI和PPI的数据表明,核心CPI通胀最早将在2024年2月达到2.5%,然后在5月进一步降至2.1%。由于2月份的数据在很大程度上根据3月中旬发布的CPI和PPI来预测,预计3月20日至21日的FOMC会议将进行首次降息,并至少连续三次降息25个基点,分别在3月、5月和6月。但在核心PCE接近2%的情况下,75个基点的降息使利率保持在4.5%至4.75%的水平,较FOMC对长期利率的中值估计高出200个基点。因此在下半年还会有两次季度降息,2024年总计五次降息,2025年将有三次季度降息,2025年9月利率将降至3.25%至3.5%。我们对未来几个季度利率的看法与市场定价相同,原因是住房通胀放缓;然而在2024年中期之后,我们的预测比市场还要激进,我们对经济和就业更加乐观,在预计2024年实际GDP为2.0%,到2024年第四季度失业率将小幅下降至3.6%,而这将要求FOMC放慢降息速度。相比美联储,欧洲央行、英国央行表态更强硬,这意味着开始降息的时间将稍晚,高盛指出:欧央行更有可能在4月份开始降息,但由于欧洲通胀更为疲弱,经济增长也明显放缓,因此我们预计将连续降息175个基点,从目前的4%降至2025年初的2.25%,接近当前市场的定价。在英国,由于通胀更高,降息可能会晚一些开始,预计在明年6月进行首次降息,并预计从5.25%连续下调225个基点至2025年中期的3%,低于市场定价。其他经济体方面,高盛指出,由于美联储降息将缓解汇率压力,降低了墨西哥、秘鲁和智利等拉美经济体的降息预期。但提前了印度和印度尼西亚等亚洲国家的降息预期,澳大利亚和新西兰也可能提前降息。此外,Jan 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还有相信哥一直坚守到现在的嘛?知道我名字的就知道我是做这个的元老了😁😁","listText":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 还有相信哥一直坚守到现在的嘛?知道我名字的就知道我是做这个的元老了😁😁","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 还有相信哥一直坚守到现在的嘛?知道我名字的就知道我是做这个的元老了😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347934","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3433281515984212","authorId":"3433281515984212","name":"T20211211708","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4085508e432c6c70bc32870fe6a7fa8e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3433281515984212","idStr":"3433281515984212"},"content":"你30的时候补到了吗?","text":"你30的时候补到了吗?","html":"你30的时候补到了吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340946,"gmtCreate":1543335816890,"gmtModify":1704782092469,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ G20峰会大家怎么看?贸易战会停吗?","listText":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ G20峰会大家怎么看?贸易战会停吗?","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ G20峰会大家怎么看?贸易战会停吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340946","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3487842822650719","authorId":"3487842822650719","name":"lyylyylyy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/d028e17daf06618165b6ec5e36185bd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3487842822650719","idStr":"3487842822650719"},"content":"还在补仓吗,是不是该入手了呢","text":"还在补仓吗,是不是该入手了呢","html":"还在补仓吗,是不是该入手了呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}