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IP属地:湖北
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淡然1916
09-26
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
淡然1916
2022-07-06
d次开
从原油、金属到美股都在跌!衰退交易何时休?
淡然1916
2022-07-06
@Una是个小韭皇
uy
抱歉,原内容已删除
淡然1916
2021-01-30
$游戏驿站(GME)$
咋没有动静
淡然1916
2021-01-30
$游戏驿站(GME)$
挂多少才合适,急死了
淡然1916
2021-01-29
$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$
每天拉高出,服了
淡然1916
2020-11-19
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
年底交易冷淡,
淡然1916
2020-11-18
$蔚来(NIO)$
加把劲
淡然1916
2020-10-16
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@LIULIULIU:“穷人式”炒股,到底有多可怕?
淡然1916
2020-09-29
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
看好
淡然1916
2020-08-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@LIULIULIU: 如何利用“过顶擒龙”战法抓牛股? 作为短线波段操作,都希望在尽可能短的时间内,取得最大的收益。 这里面有2个关键点:1、前高附近;2、放量长阳。 一般来说,股价从60天均线下方冲过60天线,见到了第一个高点;然后股价慢慢回落到60天线附近,然后再次启动,当股价涨到前高附近时,要引起我们的高度关注。 要求:过前高时一定是要放量长阳过前高,最好是涨停!一轮快速拉升行情开始起动! 解释:机构在60天线以下开始吸筹。股价上涨完全是机构吸货造成的,散户不可能造成股价有力的上涨。当股价穿过60天线,造成了一个高点,机构反手打压,希望跟风散户缴出手中的筹码。在低点区域上,机构反复折腾,就是逼出散户的筹码。然后股价再次开始回升。这个过程相对来说比较缓慢。当股价来到前高附近时,也是我们关注的关键时刻。 过前高时,一定要有力,放量长阳,最好是涨停!那么一波快速拉升就开始了。如果不是这样,机构磨磨叽叽,那么就可能好事多磨了。 如果过前高时,不是以放量长阳或者涨停板起动的,就是机构再考验下散户们的耐心,折腾一下,让不坚定分子离场,但是,机构吸足了筹码,上涨是必然的!一定的!所以,要坚定信心,不要为一时的折腾轻率地抛出手中的筹码。 其含义: &nbs
淡然1916
2019-04-04
$StoneCo(STNE)$ 什么鬼
淡然1916
2019-02-22
$三倍做空原油ETN(DWT)$ 原油什么时候跌
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从原油、金属到美股都在跌!衰退交易何时休?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-06 22:48 北京时间 <a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/101466500.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>衰退担忧主导市场,这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面。隔夜原油价格闪崩近10%,令人意外的是,这还是发生在供给结构性趋紧的背景下。近期衰退担忧主导市场,这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面,真正的衰退还没到来,“衰退交易”已大行其道——美股崩盘,原油闪崩,“铜博士”大幅回撤,美债收益率在避险情绪下大跌。这场“衰退交易”会如何演绎?何时才会收尾?又将对中国市场产生何种影响?“衰退交易”大行其道事实上,目前主要发达经济体...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101466500.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101466500.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119658306","content_text":"衰退担忧主导市场,这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面。隔夜原油价格闪崩近10%,令人意外的是,这还是发生在供给结构性趋紧的背景下。近期衰退担忧主导市场,这种担忧甚至超乎了基本面,真正的衰退还没到来,“衰退交易”已大行其道——美股崩盘,原油闪崩,“铜博士”大幅回撤,美债收益率在避险情绪下大跌。这场“衰退交易”会如何演绎?何时才会收尾?又将对中国市场产生何种影响?“衰退交易”大行其道事实上,目前主要发达经济体并未真正陷入衰退。对衰退最常见的定义是连续两个季度出现负增长,2022年第一季度,美国实际GDP同比增速意外下降1.5%,如果第二季度(将于7月28日发布)GDP再次下滑,则几乎可以确认美国经济已进入衰退。但大多数经济学家预计,第二季度GDP增速将是正值,经济衰退更可能出现于2023年。瑞银近期表示,并不认为美国会在2022年甚至2023年出现衰退;高盛最新表示,明年美国经济进入衰退的风险为30%,欧元区为40%,英国为45%。不过,市场总是抢先一步。目前各界预计,7月美联储继续加息75BP(基点)的概率较大,同时美国经济增长正在放缓,而美联储主席鲍威尔近期承认,大幅加息可能使经济陷入衰退。但交易员认为,央行并不会因此而退却,目前抗通胀才是首要任务,历史上的多次衰退其实都是由央行紧缩造成的。于是“铜博士”先崩了,铜价被视为衡量全球经济健康和衰退的传统指标之一。在经济扩张周期,对铜的需求会增加,而在经济增长放缓时,需求会下降。早在6月27日,期铜价格就跌至15个月低点,比4个月前周期高点5.0395美元/盎司下跌了近25%。截至北京时间7月6日12时,Comex美铜已经跌破了3.5美元/盎司的关键点位。供不应求的原油价格也出现闪崩。“今天(美东时间7月6日)油价暴跌,布伦特原油价格较上午高点下跌超过10%。在交易流动性较低的情况下,市场对衰退的担忧日益加剧,技术面加剧了抛售。”高盛原油首席策略师达米安·库瓦林(Damien Courvalin)在发给记者的一份报告中提及。油价下跌始于美股开盘之际,与此同时,其他风险资产也普遍下跌。技术因素和趋势跟踪的CTA抛售加剧了跌势。某资深商品交易员对记者表示,比如布伦特原油跌破了100天均线,而且有大量未平仓的看跌期权行权。在这种情况下,大宗商品价格会加速下跌。“这次抛售发生在7月4日美国国庆节之后,交易流动性处于季节性低点。从这个角度来看,这次油价抛售并不那么令人意外,其规模和背景与2021年感恩节后的那次类似。”隔夜美股并未暴跌,而是走出了“深V”反弹,但一段时间以来,美股的抛售早已先行。嘉盛集团资深分析师辛可塔(Fiona Cincotta)对记者表示,从今年的开局来看,标普500指数走出了上世纪70年代以来最糟糕的走势,而科技巨头崩盘使得纳斯达克指数遭遇2002年以来的最大跌幅。二者上半年分别累计下跌20.58%和29.51%。同时,美债收益率也出现暴跌,从6月最高点3.5%附近滑落到2.9%以下。早前,市场的关注点在于美联储加息幅度超出预期,于是美债收益率直线飙升,但随着衰退担忧加剧,债券的避险属性终于凸显,美债收益率迅速回落。对于通胀拥护者来说,鉴于当前美国CPI高达8.6%,核心PCE通胀也达4.7%,2.9%的10年期美债收益率显然太低。他们认为,近期债券的强势只是暂时的喘息之机,收益率终会飙升至新高。不过,新加坡某大型主权机构的策略师对第一财经表示,近几周美股大跌、美债价格依旧坚挺的事实再一次重现了吉布森悖论(Gibson’s Paradox),即债券收益率和股价之间存在正相关关系,这种现象通常发生在低通胀或通缩背景下。截至今年年初,吉布森悖论统治美国股市和债市已超20年。随着未来通胀逐步缓和、衰退担忧占据主导,早前“股债双杀”的格局将切换至“股跌债涨”。商品颓势短期仍将持续大宗商品是高通胀下唯一的藏身之地,俄乌冲突更是助推商品价格,至少上半年仍是如此。截至2022年2月,大宗商品价格广义指数较2020年4月的低点上涨了85%。在此期间,布伦特原油价格上涨超过350%,铜价上涨125%。俄乌局势发酵后的几周内,大宗商品指数又上涨了30%,油价和小麦价格触及2008年初以来的最高水平。但如今,市场的焦点从供给冲击转向需求萎缩,大宗商品价格也开始崩塌,投资者似乎“无处藏身”。即使是华尔街最看涨大宗商品的投行高盛也于7月5日发布报告称,油价正向衰退恐慌屈服。但该机构仍认为,中长期油价仍将偏强,“今年夏天(出行高峰季)需要更高的油价来平衡石油市场,但我们承认,重大和大规模的冲击继续扭曲基本面。到目前为止,俄罗斯的出口超过了预期。然而,这已被利比亚和厄瓜多尔的产量损失完全抵消,沙特6月的产量也低于预期。”不过,目前显然情绪战胜了基本面。两周前开始,CFTC(美国商品期货交易委员会)报告就显示,投机者将其原油净多头减少了4.6万手至47万手,空多比例上涨。“美国经济衰退的程度不高,但无人保证这不会是一次长期衰退。居高不下的通胀可能同样束缚美联储,使其不能迅速宽松银根。也就是说,这种情况下出现的衰退,持续的时间或长于其他情况下出现的衰退。上述种种担忧占据了投资者的脑海,油价跌势因此可能持续一段时间。投资者现在更可能逢高沽出而不是逢低买入。”辛可塔对记者称,一旦抛盘重新发威,油价可能下看93美元/桶下方不远处的200天均线。“铜博士”也明显受制于衰退担忧。高盛表示,金属市场交易的是宏观情绪。自4月以来,铜和铝的价格就已与基本面脱钩,在中国推出刺激措施、库存继续下降的情况下,铜、铝价格却在过去一个季度分别下跌了20%和30%。“这种行为表明,投资者如今正面临着异常的市场环境,这使得专注于库存、成本曲线等的传统金属定价模型在决定短期价格时基本失效。”该机构认为,目前金属的颓势可能会持续下去,直到人们对中国刺激措施的效果有足够的信心,以及美联储结束激进的加息周期,市场才会将注意力转移回微观基本面。美股盈利衰退,A股短期走势独立尽管近期“衰退交易”的主角是大宗商品,但这并不代表早前暴跌的美股未来就会风平浪静。上述策略师也对记者表示,迄今为止,标普500指数的下跌完全是由于通胀上升和利率上升导致的估值压缩。现在,股市将开始为盈利衰退定价。瑞银证券实证所(UBS Evidence Lab)梳理了美国过去100年出现的17次衰退,其中10次为轻度衰退(GDP峰值至谷底的降幅低于3%),7次为深度衰退(降幅超过3%)。深度衰退的加权平均市场跌幅为34.4%,市场抛售在深度衰退前3个月就开始,并一共会持续12个月;与轻度衰退相关的市场下跌时间也达到了12个月,但导致的市场抛售开始得更早,即在衰退开始前的8个月就出现抛售,市场的平均跌幅为11%。中长期而言,中国市场仍可能受海外市场影响,但多数国际机构认为,短期A股走势将更趋独立。富敦近期就提及,中国股市正在退出“惩罚箱”,其与美国股市的相关性较低,市场仍有积极因素出现。首先,中国的货币政策与美联储截然相反。这意味着中国股市很可能处于经济逐步触底、货币政策宽松的“甜蜜点”。其次,中国的通胀率非常低,因此央行可以专注于政策刺激;此外,中国科技行业的监管风险正在消退;从相对估值角度来说,中国股票也仍有吸引力。上证综指的远期市盈率为13倍,MSCI中国指数的远期市盈率为10~11倍。即使在美股已经大跌的背景下,A股也仍“划算”很多。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":681420878,"gmtCreate":1657119414798,"gmtModify":1704866623140,"author":{"id":"3490363990990574","authorId":"3490363990990574","name":"淡然1916","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d17ec60e967e4cf5c76ae7988b7b3d6","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3490363990990574","idStr":"3490363990990574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" <a 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如何利用“过顶擒龙”战法抓牛股? 作为短线波段操作,都希望在尽可能短的时间内,取得最大的收益。 这里面有2个关键点:1、前高附近;2、放量长阳。 一般来说,股价从60天均线下方冲过60天线,见到了第一个高点;然后股价慢慢回落到60天线附近,然后再次启动,当股价涨到前高附近时,要引起我们的高度关注。 要求:过前高时一定是要放量长阳过前高,最好是涨停!一轮快速拉升行情开始起动! 解释:机构在60天线以下开始吸筹。股价上涨完全是机构吸货造成的,散户不可能造成股价有力的上涨。当股价穿过60天线,造成了一个高点,机构反手打压,希望跟风散户缴出手中的筹码。在低点区域上,机构反复折腾,就是逼出散户的筹码。然后股价再次开始回升。这个过程相对来说比较缓慢。当股价来到前高附近时,也是我们关注的关键时刻。 过前高时,一定要有力,放量长阳,最好是涨停!那么一波快速拉升就开始了。如果不是这样,机构磨磨叽叽,那么就可能好事多磨了。 如果过前高时,不是以放量长阳或者涨停板起动的,就是机构再考验下散户们的耐心,折腾一下,让不坚定分子离场,但是,机构吸足了筹码,上涨是必然的!一定的!所以,要坚定信心,不要为一时的折腾轻率地抛出手中的筹码。 其含义: &nbs","listText":" 如何利用“过顶擒龙”战法抓牛股? 作为短线波段操作,都希望在尽可能短的时间内,取得最大的收益。 这里面有2个关键点:1、前高附近;2、放量长阳。 一般来说,股价从60天均线下方冲过60天线,见到了第一个高点;然后股价慢慢回落到60天线附近,然后再次启动,当股价涨到前高附近时,要引起我们的高度关注。 要求:过前高时一定是要放量长阳过前高,最好是涨停!一轮快速拉升行情开始起动! 解释:机构在60天线以下开始吸筹。股价上涨完全是机构吸货造成的,散户不可能造成股价有力的上涨。当股价穿过60天线,造成了一个高点,机构反手打压,希望跟风散户缴出手中的筹码。在低点区域上,机构反复折腾,就是逼出散户的筹码。然后股价再次开始回升。这个过程相对来说比较缓慢。当股价来到前高附近时,也是我们关注的关键时刻。 过前高时,一定要有力,放量长阳,最好是涨停!那么一波快速拉升就开始了。如果不是这样,机构磨磨叽叽,那么就可能好事多磨了。 如果过前高时,不是以放量长阳或者涨停板起动的,就是机构再考验下散户们的耐心,折腾一下,让不坚定分子离场,但是,机构吸足了筹码,上涨是必然的!一定的!所以,要坚定信心,不要为一时的折腾轻率地抛出手中的筹码。 其含义: &nbs","text":"如何利用“过顶擒龙”战法抓牛股? 作为短线波段操作,都希望在尽可能短的时间内,取得最大的收益。 这里面有2个关键点:1、前高附近;2、放量长阳。 一般来说,股价从60天均线下方冲过60天线,见到了第一个高点;然后股价慢慢回落到60天线附近,然后再次启动,当股价涨到前高附近时,要引起我们的高度关注。 要求:过前高时一定是要放量长阳过前高,最好是涨停!一轮快速拉升行情开始起动! 解释:机构在60天线以下开始吸筹。股价上涨完全是机构吸货造成的,散户不可能造成股价有力的上涨。当股价穿过60天线,造成了一个高点,机构反手打压,希望跟风散户缴出手中的筹码。在低点区域上,机构反复折腾,就是逼出散户的筹码。然后股价再次开始回升。这个过程相对来说比较缓慢。当股价来到前高附近时,也是我们关注的关键时刻。 过前高时,一定要有力,放量长阳,最好是涨停!那么一波快速拉升就开始了。如果不是这样,机构磨磨叽叽,那么就可能好事多磨了。 如果过前高时,不是以放量长阳或者涨停板起动的,就是机构再考验下散户们的耐心,折腾一下,让不坚定分子离场,但是,机构吸足了筹码,上涨是必然的!一定的!所以,要坚定信心,不要为一时的折腾轻率地抛出手中的筹码。 其含义: &nbs","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2dbcdbdb3384d7cbb04992913e4025","width":"1080","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944906412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}