川普药丸的个人主页 - 老虎社区

川普药丸

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2020-03-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$行情反弹会继续但是目前美国这情况真的不敢那过夜..从九百给我打下来打怕了细水长流每天做做day trade

2020-03-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$哪天挂星哪天有机会做空了

2020-03-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这么明显的上涨信号哎我还是太年轻

2020-03-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$昨天390补 380补 360补 350补[流泪][流泪][流泪]

2020-03-19

赶紧造啊

马斯克：如果出现短缺，特斯拉将生产呼吸机

2020-03-19

别骗我了我已经怕了[喷血]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-19

放屁美国虚拟经济？

伍超明评美股熔断：美国虚拟经济缺乏实体经济支撑

2020-03-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$最后一小时尾盘拉升到四百让我还回去吧我已经认识到了自己的错误不该早早的抄底放过我吧我还是个孩子

2020-03-19

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$不熔断呢？

2020-03-18

$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$能抄底吗

2020-03-17

扯淡病情在中国那么严重中国gdp都增长，美国才几天就负5了？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$一顿操作猛如虎，两秒赔成二百五

2020-03-17

湾区人民表示太少

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$第一批仓上车啦[喷血]

2020-03-16

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$疫情没到高潮怎么买..怎么也要宣布控制住吧$特斯拉(TSLA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$微软(MSFT)$$波音(BA)$$亚马逊(AMZN)$$Facebook(FB)$

2020-03-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$救市也是无济于事就是想软着陆怕硬摔太狠了

2020-03-13

$波音(BA)$咋又停了.....

2020-03-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$我擦刚被割这是诱我再上车？

2020-03-13

$波音(BA)$炒到底了！牛逼

2020-03-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$比较喜欢线上销售的特点，一切价钱都是在明面上，比较适合现在的疫情。但不会成为汽车销售的主流。我撤了兄弟们四百我会重新回来.拿着正股的信心都没了哎

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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb163c34f9a56cb2303a711b096678d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020031912034979bad2b8&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2020861831","content_text":"马斯克表示，如果出现短缺，特斯拉将生产呼吸机。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967688269,"gmtCreate":1584591667551,"gmtModify":1704355159257,"author":{"id":"3490318159919923","authorId":"3490318159919923","name":"川普药丸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490318159919923","authorIdStr":"3490318159919923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别骗我了 我已经怕了[喷血]","listText":"别骗我了 我已经怕了[喷血]","text":"别骗我了 我已经怕了[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967688269","repostId":"1170174818","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967843700,"gmtCreate":1584579108400,"gmtModify":1704355071769,"author":{"id":"3490318159919923","authorId":"3490318159919923","name":"川普药丸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490318159919923","authorIdStr":"3490318159919923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"放屁 美国虚拟经济？","listText":"放屁 美国虚拟经济？","text":"放屁 美国虚拟经济？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967843700","repostId":"2020917466","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2020917466","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1584577980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2020917466?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-19 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</font>\n<p>责任编辑：陶然 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伍超明评美股熔断：美国虚拟经济缺乏实体经济支撑</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伍超明评美股熔断：美国虚拟经济缺乏实体经济支撑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-19 08:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/jjsy/2020-03-19/doc-iimxyqwa1564330.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>继上周3月9日、12日、16日美股出现3次熔断后，在美联储大动作频频，将利率降至零、启动7000亿美元第四次量宽、动用商业票据融资便利机制（CPFF）和一级交易商信贷机制（PDCF）危机工具向家庭和企业提供流动性、美国财长努钦表示将推出1万亿美元经济刺激计划的背景下，10天内又迎来第四次熔断，美股历史上的第五次熔断。\n　　在连续祭出重磅王炸后，美股仍高频接连熔断，从短期原因看，我们还是强调原来的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/jjsy/2020-03-19/doc-iimxyqwa1564330.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db3277ac69d01829bf728751b8b24938\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：Wind</p>\n<p>本周以来，美联储先后紧急降息100bp，启动了7000亿美元QE，下调了贴现窗口利率，并重启了一级交易商信贷便利（PDCF）和商业票据融资便利（CPFF）。贴现窗口和PDCF分别是针对银行和非银机构的流动性救助工具，CPFF则是为极其重要的商业票据市场提供流动性。另外，为缓解离岸美元流动性紧张，美联储联合5大央行下调了美元流动性互换安排定价。<b>在美联储的政策组合拳打出之后，美国国债市场、商业票据市场和系统重要性银行出现流动性危机的概率下降。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb35d3c733888c9a55526dfffe6c3b7\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：FRB</p>\n<p><b>流动性风险主要集中于相对边缘的高收益债市场和抵押杠杆贷款市场</b>，受疫情黑天鹅和油价黑天鹅的打击，低评级信用市场正面临违约率上升、利差飙升、流动性消失的梦魇。一些以杠杆策略和风险平价策略为主的对冲基金受巨幅波动率的影响可能面临清盘，一些低评级类资产持仓集中度较高的区域性银行也可能存在流动性风险。应对这一类市场的流动性风险，美联储需要扩大QE购买资产的范围。</p>\n<p><b>衰退是经济周期的必然，但危机却是偶然，取决于政策的应对。股市暴跌不等同于金融危机</b>，金融危机是以系统重要性金融机构的倒闭引发传染性恐慌挤兑，或国际收支严重失衡引发资本外流和本币大幅贬值为标志的。从我们对各类市场和金融机构的流动性观测来看，上周和本周的股市过快下跌确实带出了其他市场流动性危机的苗头，如果流动性危机不能解除，则发生金融危机的概率会上升。<b>但是在美联储针对各类市场投放流动性和启动了7000亿美元QE之后，我们认为发生金融危机的概率正在下降。</b></p>\n<p>对于海外市场，随着疫情可能会出现从失控到可控的拐点，以及联储及时出手降低了流动性危机拖延成金融危机的概率，<b>美股受疫情和流动性影响的急跌阶段可能接近结束。部分基本面受疫情影响较小的公司会触底反弹，但更多公司将大幅震荡消化未来数月甚至数季度的经济衰退带来的业绩影响。</b>失业率上升还会对消费服务业形成二次冲击。</p>\n<p>中国1-2月经济数据相当真实，3月数据有望较1-2月明显改善，但1季度整体正增长的难度较大。如果1季度实际GDP增速为负，中性预期GDP翻番需要2-4季度平均增速8%左右，可能难以实现。2月失业率6.2%，已明显超过5.5%的政府预期目标。<b>如果弱化增长目标、稳就业优先，则大幅刺激基建、放松地产的必要性下降，激活消费有望成为经济政策的重要考量</b>，财政政策可能将部分财政资金直接转换为居民购买力。</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n金融危机概率下降，急跌阶段可能接近结束\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-19 11:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8uk5lxBOWwOtbdEkCGJNQ><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：宋雪涛\n海外市场主要是两条线，疫情和流动性。\n过去一周，美国确诊人数如预期爆发，累计确诊已超过9000，至少40州进入了紧急状态。从上周开始，一些疫情较严重的美国城市进入到了停学和半停工半停商的状态，疫情造成美国经济的阶段性衰退已经不可避免。未来1-2周，虽然美国确诊人数仍将爬升，经济受到的冲击仍将扩大，但随着美国进入「国家紧急状态」并开始调集资源推动检测，疫情可能正在出现从失控到可控的拐点...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8uk5lxBOWwOtbdEkCGJNQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697c53a3d92d22581fe3b0abf418f5d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8uk5lxBOWwOtbdEkCGJNQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170174818","content_text":"作者：宋雪涛\n海外市场主要是两条线，疫情和流动性。\n过去一周，美国确诊人数如预期爆发，累计确诊已超过9000，至少40州进入了紧急状态。从上周开始，一些疫情较严重的美国城市进入到了停学和半停工半停商的状态，疫情造成美国经济的阶段性衰退已经不可避免。未来1-2周，虽然美国确诊人数仍将爬升，经济受到的冲击仍将扩大，但随着美国进入「国家紧急状态」并开始调集资源推动检测，疫情可能正在出现从失控到可控的拐点。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n本周以来，美联储先后紧急降息100bp，启动了7000亿美元QE，下调了贴现窗口利率，并重启了一级交易商信贷便利（PDCF）和商业票据融资便利（CPFF）。贴现窗口和PDCF分别是针对银行和非银机构的流动性救助工具，CPFF则是为极其重要的商业票据市场提供流动性。另外，为缓解离岸美元流动性紧张，美联储联合5大央行下调了美元流动性互换安排定价。在美联储的政策组合拳打出之后，美国国债市场、商业票据市场和系统重要性银行出现流动性危机的概率下降。\n\n图片来源：FRB\n流动性风险主要集中于相对边缘的高收益债市场和抵押杠杆贷款市场，受疫情黑天鹅和油价黑天鹅的打击，低评级信用市场正面临违约率上升、利差飙升、流动性消失的梦魇。一些以杠杆策略和风险平价策略为主的对冲基金受巨幅波动率的影响可能面临清盘，一些低评级类资产持仓集中度较高的区域性银行也可能存在流动性风险。应对这一类市场的流动性风险，美联储需要扩大QE购买资产的范围。\n衰退是经济周期的必然，但危机却是偶然，取决于政策的应对。股市暴跌不等同于金融危机，金融危机是以系统重要性金融机构的倒闭引发传染性恐慌挤兑，或国际收支严重失衡引发资本外流和本币大幅贬值为标志的。从我们对各类市场和金融机构的流动性观测来看，上周和本周的股市过快下跌确实带出了其他市场流动性危机的苗头，如果流动性危机不能解除，则发生金融危机的概率会上升。但是在美联储针对各类市场投放流动性和启动了7000亿美元QE之后，我们认为发生金融危机的概率正在下降。\n对于海外市场，随着疫情可能会出现从失控到可控的拐点，以及联储及时出手降低了流动性危机拖延成金融危机的概率，美股受疫情和流动性影响的急跌阶段可能接近结束。部分基本面受疫情影响较小的公司会触底反弹，但更多公司将大幅震荡消化未来数月甚至数季度的经济衰退带来的业绩影响。失业率上升还会对消费服务业形成二次冲击。\n中国1-2月经济数据相当真实，3月数据有望较1-2月明显改善，但1季度整体正增长的难度较大。如果1季度实际GDP增速为负，中性预期GDP翻番需要2-4季度平均增速8%左右，可能难以实现。2月失业率6.2%，已明显超过5.5%的政府预期目标。如果弱化增长目标、稳就业优先，则大幅刺激基建、放松地产的必要性下降，激活消费有望成为经济政策的重要考量，财政政策可能将部分财政资金直接转换为居民购买力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967843700,"gmtCreate":1584579108400,"gmtModify":1704355071769,"author":{"id":"3490318159919923","authorId":"3490318159919923","name":"川普药丸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490318159919923","authorIdStr":"3490318159919923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"放屁 美国虚拟经济？","listText":"放屁 美国虚拟经济？","text":"放屁 美国虚拟经济？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967843700","repostId":"2020917466","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967145530,"gmtCreate":1584550555420,"gmtModify":1704354941925,"author":{"id":"3490318159919923","authorId":"3490318159919923","name":"川普药丸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490318159919923","authorIdStr":"3490318159919923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>不熔断呢？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>不熔断呢？","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$不熔断呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967145530","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964787087,"gmtCreate":1584458436849,"gmtModify":1704354321308,"author":{"id":"3490318159919923","authorId":"3490318159919923","name":"川普药丸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490318159919923","authorIdStr":"3490318159919923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"扯淡 病情在中国那么严重 中国gdp都增长，美国才几天就负5了？","listText":"扯淡 病情在中国那么严重 中国gdp都增长，美国才几天就负5了？","text":"扯淡 病情在中国那么严重 中国gdp都增长，美国才几天就负5了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964787087","repostId":"1188909377","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188909377","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1584365981,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188909377?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-16 21:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛：Q2美国GDP为-5％，标普可能跌到2000点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188909377","media":"金十数据","summary":"流动性薄弱、高度的不确定性和仓位调整，三者结合可能导致标普500指数跌破2450这个公允价值的关口。","content":"<p>上周之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>改变了之前对美国经济的乐观态度，发文称美国GDP下跌幅度将会创纪录。</p><p>高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐斯（Jan Hatzius）在不久前发表的一份报告中表示，预计美国经济活动在3月下旬和整个4月将急剧收缩，因为对病毒的担忧导致消费者和企业支出减少，特别是旅游、娱乐、餐饮等行业。新出现的供应链中断和最近的财务状况收紧可能会加剧美国经济增长的难度。</p><p>高盛预计美国第二季度的GDP为-5％，低于此前预期的0％，这将是金融危机高峰期（-8.4％）以来最大的季度收缩。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87820f4ae05b9fdedbcfea28651da090\" /></p><p>上周，美国感染新冠病毒的人数剧增。为此，政府和美联储展开了更有力的货币政策和财政政策来提振经济，如降息100个基点和占GDP1-2%的财政刺激。但是即使如此，对病毒的恐慌情绪还是很可能危害到3月和4月份的经济活动。</p><p>民众对病毒的恐慌情绪蔓延，航空公司大幅削减航班，许多大型会议取消，游轮活动也取消了，主题公园纷纷关闭。在病毒爆发较早的城市中，酒店入住率已急剧下降。至于体育联赛，职业联赛和大学篮球、曲棍球和足球赛季，以及主要的高尔夫和网球比赛都已取消，棒球赛季也已推迟。餐厅在线预订的数据表明，餐厅的访问量大幅下降，尤其是在西雅图等受影响严重的城市。</p><p>分析师指出，美国不会出现意大利式的全国停顿，但意大利、西班牙和法国等国家的经验表明了极端的本地隔离带来的影响。例如，在意大利，除药店和杂货店外，所有的零售店、餐馆都关门了，酒店入住率很低。有些工厂暂时关门，而许多开门营业的工厂的收入也低于正常水平，因为工人害怕染病而拒绝上班。</p><p>分析师在图表中说明了，在疫情最严重的地区，消费锐减对GDP的影响会有多大。总体而言，在分析师的假设中，在疫情最严重的地区，消费缩减对GDP的影响可以高达6-7%；而疫情相对弱一些的地区也会受房屋销售和商业投资减少的影响。分析师认为，疫情在4月份的影响最大，到时美国许多地区所受的影响会达到图表中所示峰值的三分二。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbbf6ec761ea8224a5f97fb941035bd\" /></p><p>高盛之前认为，四月份之后经济活动会开始恢复，下半年将强劲增长。现在，高盛改正了它乐观的想法，认为经济恢复还有许多待考量的要素。一些是医学上的问题，如社交距离和气温季节性升高会在多大程度上减少感染，以及是否会出现有效的治疗方法；另一些是行为上和经济上的问题，如感染病例要多快减少才能恢复日常活动，宽松的货币政策和财政政策能提供多大支持。</p><p>现在这些因素还无法证实，也不清楚GDP快速增长阶段会发生何事。哈齐斯警告说：“所有这些影响因素的数据都不确定”。</p><p>尽管高盛不知道经济是否会或如何能呈V型复苏，但它确定第三季度GDP会增长3％，高于 1％的预期甚至更高，预测第四季度甚至可能增长4%，到2021年初还会进一步强劲增长。</p><p>然而，虽然高盛大幅提高了下半年GDP的预期，但其仍将美国2020年全年的GDP预期由原来的1.2％下调至0.4％，即使在这种乐观的V型复苏预期下，0.4%也是自金融危机以来最糟糕的年度GDP增速了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/285e2e4d95d569d44144e5d8e89f40e7\" /></p><p>高盛还认为，美股目前还未触底。</p><p>高盛首席股票分析师戴维·科斯汀（David Kostin）表示，标普500指数可能在未来三个月内下跌近10％至2450点。如果新冠疫情蔓延带来的经济影响加深，标普500指数可能从上周五收盘位置再下跌26%，这比他上周所说的底线还低了20％。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634c2015f9d99f551e60f6c83a7b1d31\" /></p><p>科斯汀警告说，由于政府努力遏制疫情、公司被迫中断业务，新冠病毒的传播将损害利润并损害经济，并且损失程度无法预料。科斯汀在给客户的一份报告中写道：</p><p>“新冠病毒杀伤力巨大，造成的经济和社会破坏是前所未有的。流动性薄弱、高度的不确定性和仓位调整，三者结合可能导致标普500指数跌破2450这个公允价值的关口，甚至逼近2000点。</p><p>尽管美股上周五有所回升，但标普500指数上周还是下跌了8.8％，较近期高点低了20％。如果实现科斯汀的预期，则美股将较2月19日纪录高位大跌41%，抹去特朗普担任总统期间所有的涨幅收益，跌到2016年6月英国脱欧公投后的水平。</p><p>不过，科斯汀表示，事件驱动的熊市之后，美股往往会呈v型迅速回升。他预计，标普500指数到2020年底将达到3200点，较2000点上涨60％。他指出：</p><p>“先前事件驱动型熊市的教训是，新的牛市将会在金融灾难之后诞生。”</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：Q2美国GDP为-5％，标普可能跌到2000点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-16 21:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/57665><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周之后，高盛改变了之前对美国经济的乐观态度，发文称美国GDP下跌幅度将会创纪录。高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐斯（Jan Hatzius）在不久前发表的一份报告中表示，预计美国经济活动在3月下旬和整个4月将急剧收缩，因为对病毒的担忧导致消费者和企业支出减少，特别是旅游、娱乐、餐饮等行业。新出现的供应链中断和最近的财务状况收紧可能会加剧美国经济增长的难度。高盛预计美国第二季度的GDP为-5％，低于此前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/57665\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ec3d0dd1f01bca738ed37472f7e72a","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/57665","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188909377","content_text":"上周之后，高盛改变了之前对美国经济的乐观态度，发文称美国GDP下跌幅度将会创纪录。高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐斯（Jan Hatzius）在不久前发表的一份报告中表示，预计美国经济活动在3月下旬和整个4月将急剧收缩，因为对病毒的担忧导致消费者和企业支出减少，特别是旅游、娱乐、餐饮等行业。新出现的供应链中断和最近的财务状况收紧可能会加剧美国经济增长的难度。高盛预计美国第二季度的GDP为-5％，低于此前预期的0％，这将是金融危机高峰期（-8.4％）以来最大的季度收缩。上周，美国感染新冠病毒的人数剧增。为此，政府和美联储展开了更有力的货币政策和财政政策来提振经济，如降息100个基点和占GDP1-2%的财政刺激。但是即使如此，对病毒的恐慌情绪还是很可能危害到3月和4月份的经济活动。民众对病毒的恐慌情绪蔓延，航空公司大幅削减航班，许多大型会议取消，游轮活动也取消了，主题公园纷纷关闭。在病毒爆发较早的城市中，酒店入住率已急剧下降。至于体育联赛，职业联赛和大学篮球、曲棍球和足球赛季，以及主要的高尔夫和网球比赛都已取消，棒球赛季也已推迟。餐厅在线预订的数据表明，餐厅的访问量大幅下降，尤其是在西雅图等受影响严重的城市。分析师指出，美国不会出现意大利式的全国停顿，但意大利、西班牙和法国等国家的经验表明了极端的本地隔离带来的影响。例如，在意大利，除药店和杂货店外，所有的零售店、餐馆都关门了，酒店入住率很低。有些工厂暂时关门，而许多开门营业的工厂的收入也低于正常水平，因为工人害怕染病而拒绝上班。分析师在图表中说明了，在疫情最严重的地区，消费锐减对GDP的影响会有多大。总体而言，在分析师的假设中，在疫情最严重的地区，消费缩减对GDP的影响可以高达6-7%；而疫情相对弱一些的地区也会受房屋销售和商业投资减少的影响。分析师认为，疫情在4月份的影响最大，到时美国许多地区所受的影响会达到图表中所示峰值的三分二。高盛之前认为，四月份之后经济活动会开始恢复，下半年将强劲增长。现在，高盛改正了它乐观的想法，认为经济恢复还有许多待考量的要素。一些是医学上的问题，如社交距离和气温季节性升高会在多大程度上减少感染，以及是否会出现有效的治疗方法；另一些是行为上和经济上的问题，如感染病例要多快减少才能恢复日常活动，宽松的货币政策和财政政策能提供多大支持。现在这些因素还无法证实，也不清楚GDP快速增长阶段会发生何事。哈齐斯警告说：“所有这些影响因素的数据都不确定”。尽管高盛不知道经济是否会或如何能呈V型复苏，但它确定第三季度GDP会增长3％，高于 1％的预期甚至更高，预测第四季度甚至可能增长4%，到2021年初还会进一步强劲增长。然而，虽然高盛大幅提高了下半年GDP的预期，但其仍将美国2020年全年的GDP预期由原来的1.2％下调至0.4％，即使在这种乐观的V型复苏预期下，0.4%也是自金融危机以来最糟糕的年度GDP增速了。高盛还认为，美股目前还未触底。高盛首席股票分析师戴维·科斯汀（David Kostin）表示，标普500指数可能在未来三个月内下跌近10％至2450点。如果新冠疫情蔓延带来的经济影响加深，标普500指数可能从上周五收盘位置再下跌26%，这比他上周所说的底线还低了20％。科斯汀警告说，由于政府努力遏制疫情、公司被迫中断业务，新冠病毒的传播将损害利润并损害经济，并且损失程度无法预料。科斯汀在给客户的一份报告中写道：“新冠病毒杀伤力巨大，造成的经济和社会破坏是前所未有的。流动性薄弱、高度的不确定性和仓位调整，三者结合可能导致标普500指数跌破2450这个公允价值的关口，甚至逼近2000点。尽管美股上周五有所回升，但标普500指数上周还是下跌了8.8％，较近期高点低了20％。如果实现科斯汀的预期，则美股将较2月19日纪录高位大跌41%，抹去特朗普担任总统期间所有的涨幅收益，跌到2016年6月英国脱欧公投后的水平。不过，科斯汀表示，事件驱动的熊市之后，美股往往会呈v型迅速回升。他预计，标普500指数到2020年底将达到3200点，较2000点上涨60％。他指出：“先前事件驱动型熊市的教训是，新的牛市将会在金融灾难之后诞生。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964474300,"gmtCreate":1584454085800,"gmtModify":1704354248323,"author":{"id":"3490318159919923","authorId":"3490318159919923","name":"川普药丸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490318159919923","authorIdStr":"3490318159919923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"湾区人民表示太少","listText":"湾区人民表示太少","text":"湾区人民表示太少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964474300","repostId":"1163766446","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163766446","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1584453896,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163766446?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-17 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"最后的大招儿，美国考虑直接发现金！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163766446","media":"金十数据","summary":"降息都救不了的美国，下一步打算来点更直接的。","content":"<p><b>疫情肆虐之下，美国消费正持续崩溃，当地时间16日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国「可能」正在走向经济衰退。降息都救不了的美国，下一步打算来点更直接的。</b></p>\n<p>周一，美国国会掀起一场激烈讨论，主题是关于向每个美国成年人发放1000美元现金津贴。提议得到共和党参议员罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）的支持后，呼声越来越高。另一位共和党参议员科顿（Tom Cotton）则表示他正在努力制定包括现金津贴在内的法案。</p>\n<p>该计划还得到了众议院几位民主党人士的支持。他们认为把实实在在的现金交到美国民众手中将更有利于刺激消费，缓解疫情对经济带来的影响。</p>\n<p>据外媒报道，全面发放现金的想法也快速获得了经济学家们的支持，包括小布什时代的经济顾问格里高利·曼昆（Gregory Mankiw）和他的哈佛同事杰森·弗曼（Jason Furman）。这主要是由于疫情冲击之下，航空旅游业、酒吧和餐馆大规模倒闭关门。分析人士担忧，一些仍在酝酿当中的缓解冠状病毒冲击的方案过于狭隘。</p>\n<p>曼昆周一的时候在一篇博客中写道：</p>\n<p>「许多美国人几乎都没有储蓄，很难定义出‘真正生活有困难的人’，这使得地毯式的援助计划成为当前危机下理想的选择......尽快给每个美国人一张1000美元的支票，这将是一个不错的开端。」</p>\n<p>高盛本周指出，因消费崩溃，将美国第二季度的GDP增速预期从先前的0%下调至-5%。高盛写道：</p>\n<p>在线餐厅预订的数据表明，餐厅的访问量大幅下降，尤其是在西雅图等受疫情影响最严重的城市。尽管我们我们并不假设美国会出现意大利式的国家停摆，但意大利、西班牙和法国等国家的经验告诉我们，极端的地方隔离可能会带来什么影响。</p>\n<p>正如我们在过去一周中所看到的那样，从航空公司、赌场、酒店、邮轮到餐馆。各行各业的在线预订都出现了断崖式下滑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21ef6ea4b7a2ed793e86c0fa93cfe314\"></p>\n<p>尽管1000美元并不能让人们去坐飞机、下餐馆、去赌场和住酒店，但是对于一个小家庭来说，1000美元够他们一到两个月的食物开销，或者也可以用来交租金和还抵押贷款。财政部长史蒂文·努钦也支持该想法，此前他与议长南希·佩洛西促成众议院通过了冠状病毒应对法案。</p>\n<p>民主党议员也有相关提案。据外媒报道：</p>\n<p>俄亥俄州的民主党代表Tim Ryan和加利福尼亚的Ro Khanna提议寄支票给年收入低于65000美元的美国人，这意味着大约三分之二的美国家庭符合条件。支票金额从1000美元到6000美元不等，具体取决于各家庭的收入。</p>\n<p>参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默周一表示，他将提出一项总额为7500亿美元的一揽子计划，该计划将「给经济注入强心剂，直达最需要钱的家庭手中。」</p>\n<p>不过相较于发放现金，特朗普总统更提倡削减工资税。除了发现金，参议院也正在讨论一项扩大带薪病假的法案。</p>\n<p>Ecognosis Advisory首席执行官安德鲁•弗里斯（Andrew Freris）告诉CNBC，在冠状病毒大流行期间，美国应该效仿中国香港的做法，向其公民提供现金援助。他指出，2008年央行使用刺激措施来应对美国抵押贷款市场的崩溃，但他说，目前没有任何此类事情在发生。他说看到像美联储这样的央行采取步骤来支持金融市场是个好消息，但降低利率对于解决当前经济动荡的根本原因「绝对没有任何作用」。</p>\n<p>「这不是金融危机，这是实体经济的危机。要担忧的是实体经济将会发生什么。现在，如果还投入更多的资金来支持金融部门，绝对没有任何作用。」</p>\n<p>他说，美国人口约为3.3亿，从技术上讲，每月可以给每个公民发放1000美元，「这些钱将被直接用于消费」。</p>\n<p><b>您认为这些更为简单粗暴又直接的措施，能缓解受到疫情冲击的美国经济吗？能挽救跌跌不休的美国股市吗？</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>最后的大招儿，美国考虑直接发现金！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最后的大招儿，美国考虑直接发现金！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-17 22:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/57709><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>疫情肆虐之下，美国消费正持续崩溃，当地时间16日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国「可能」正在走向经济衰退。降息都救不了的美国，下一步打算来点更直接的。\n周一，美国国会掀起一场激烈讨论，主题是关于向每个美国成年人发放1000美元现金津贴。提议得到共和党参议员罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）的支持后，呼声越来越高。另一位共和党参议员科顿（Tom Cotton）则表示他正在努力制定包括现金津贴在内的法案。\n该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/57709\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a449bcb79f5b44c439e7414e1e3334","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/57709","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163766446","content_text":"疫情肆虐之下，美国消费正持续崩溃，当地时间16日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国「可能」正在走向经济衰退。降息都救不了的美国，下一步打算来点更直接的。\n周一，美国国会掀起一场激烈讨论，主题是关于向每个美国成年人发放1000美元现金津贴。提议得到共和党参议员罗姆尼（Mitt Romney）的支持后，呼声越来越高。另一位共和党参议员科顿（Tom Cotton）则表示他正在努力制定包括现金津贴在内的法案。\n该计划还得到了众议院几位民主党人士的支持。他们认为把实实在在的现金交到美国民众手中将更有利于刺激消费，缓解疫情对经济带来的影响。\n据外媒报道，全面发放现金的想法也快速获得了经济学家们的支持，包括小布什时代的经济顾问格里高利·曼昆（Gregory Mankiw）和他的哈佛同事杰森·弗曼（Jason Furman）。这主要是由于疫情冲击之下，航空旅游业、酒吧和餐馆大规模倒闭关门。分析人士担忧，一些仍在酝酿当中的缓解冠状病毒冲击的方案过于狭隘。\n曼昆周一的时候在一篇博客中写道：\n「许多美国人几乎都没有储蓄，很难定义出‘真正生活有困难的人’，这使得地毯式的援助计划成为当前危机下理想的选择......尽快给每个美国人一张1000美元的支票，这将是一个不错的开端。」\n高盛本周指出，因消费崩溃，将美国第二季度的GDP增速预期从先前的0%下调至-5%。高盛写道：\n在线餐厅预订的数据表明，餐厅的访问量大幅下降，尤其是在西雅图等受疫情影响最严重的城市。尽管我们我们并不假设美国会出现意大利式的国家停摆，但意大利、西班牙和法国等国家的经验告诉我们，极端的地方隔离可能会带来什么影响。\n正如我们在过去一周中所看到的那样，从航空公司、赌场、酒店、邮轮到餐馆。各行各业的在线预订都出现了断崖式下滑。\n\n尽管1000美元并不能让人们去坐飞机、下餐馆、去赌场和住酒店，但是对于一个小家庭来说，1000美元够他们一到两个月的食物开销，或者也可以用来交租金和还抵押贷款。财政部长史蒂文·努钦也支持该想法，此前他与议长南希·佩洛西促成众议院通过了冠状病毒应对法案。\n民主党议员也有相关提案。据外媒报道：\n俄亥俄州的民主党代表Tim Ryan和加利福尼亚的Ro Khanna提议寄支票给年收入低于65000美元的美国人，这意味着大约三分之二的美国家庭符合条件。支票金额从1000美元到6000美元不等，具体取决于各家庭的收入。\n参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默周一表示，他将提出一项总额为7500亿美元的一揽子计划，该计划将「给经济注入强心剂，直达最需要钱的家庭手中。」\n不过相较于发放现金，特朗普总统更提倡削减工资税。除了发现金，参议院也正在讨论一项扩大带薪病假的法案。\nEcognosis Advisory首席执行官安德鲁•弗里斯（Andrew Freris）告诉CNBC，在冠状病毒大流行期间，美国应该效仿中国香港的做法，向其公民提供现金援助。他指出，2008年央行使用刺激措施来应对美国抵押贷款市场的崩溃，但他说，目前没有任何此类事情在发生。他说看到像美联储这样的央行采取步骤来支持金融市场是个好消息，但降低利率对于解决当前经济动荡的根本原因「绝对没有任何作用」。\n「这不是金融危机，这是实体经济的危机。要担忧的是实体经济将会发生什么。现在，如果还投入更多的资金来支持金融部门，绝对没有任何作用。」\n他说，美国人口约为3.3亿，从技术上讲，每月可以给每个公民发放1000美元，「这些钱将被直接用于消费」。\n您认为这些更为简单粗暴又直接的措施，能缓解受到疫情冲击的美国经济吗？能挽救跌跌不休的美国股市吗？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965747851,"gmtCreate":1584088550473,"gmtModify":1704352973474,"author":{"id":"3490318159919923","authorId":"3490318159919923","name":"川普药丸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3490318159919923","authorIdStr":"3490318159919923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>救市也是无济于事 就是想软着陆&nbsp;怕硬摔太狠了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>救市也是无济于事 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