MaxwellS的个人主页 - 老虎社区

MaxwellS

MaxwellS

风雨兼程

IP属地：北京

65关注

3粉丝

3主题

0勋章

2021-05-21

$腾讯控股(00700)$要不要跑

2021-03-24

投行这生意真好做啊，保荐完就想割韭菜

高盛：首予百度港股买入评级目标价373港元上涨空间达48%

2021-03-23

$百度集团-SW(09888)$上市首日破发[捂脸]

2021-02-09

$百度(BIDU)$破千亿

2021-01-25

$腾讯控股(00700)$泡沫

2021-01-21

$腾讯控股(00700)$微信支付的重新看了

2020-12-31

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$最美的夜[捂脸]

2020-12-24

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$下一个是不是没上市的滴滴

2020-12-15

$腾讯控股(00700)$微信是垄断么[疑问]

2020-11-16

$腾讯控股(00700)$是因为出台了关注青少年肥胖的方案么？

2020-10-07

东施效颦

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-14

$腾讯控股(00700)$受疫情恢复影响，游戏业务Q2增长不可持续，网络广告业务营收下降却是明显的，谨慎看待

2020-03-12

$老虎证券(TIGR)$今晚会不会再宕机

2020-03-03

竭泽而渔为利润

百度，除了利润都是浮云

2020-02-27

$百度(BIDU)$从微博财报看，广告业务下滑，q1指引不会好

2020-01-07

$老虎证券(TIGR)$都会港股上市了，老虎还赚什么钱啊

2019-09-27

周线下降三角，只差临门一脚

2019-09-10

$百度(BIDU)$投资东软涨了

2018-12-26

#2018投资大复盘# 发发发发

2018-12-26

#2018年度大放送# 发发发

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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20:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛：首予百度港股买入评级 目标价373港元上涨空间达48%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121465465","media":"腾讯自选股","summary":"高盛：首予百度港股买入评级 目标价373港元上涨空间达48% 来源：时刻头条紧随百度在港股成功二次上市，高盛3月24日发布的最新研报给与其“买入”评级，并将目标价由每股383美元上调至每股385美元，港股每股目标价373港元，这意味着相对于每股262港元的发行价，百度还将进一步上涨48%，目标总市值超过1300亿美元。2020年，百度核心业务的云服务收入同比增长44%。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>：首予<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>港股买入评级 目标价373港元上涨空间达48% 来源：时刻头条</p><p>紧随百度在港股成功二次上市，高盛3月24日发布的最新研报给与其“买入”评级，并将目标价由每股383美元上调至每股385美元，港股每股目标价373港元，这意味着相对于每股262港元的发行价，百度还将进一步上涨48%，目标<font>总市值</font>超过1300亿美元。</p><p>报告称，百度拥有多个增长引擎，有三大理由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>(行情300785)入。其一，受益于企业云业务普及率的提升，预计百度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云营收2021年将同比增长61%；其二，基于Apollo开放平台和与智能汽车业务的增长前景，预计2029年百度将占有7%的市场份额；其三，全球经济复苏将使企业增加在品牌广告方面的支出，加之收购YY，将进一步整合百度流量推动广告收入增长。</p><p>智能云方面，通过已验证的成功模式及标杆项目，高盛认为百度智能云正处于加速增长的拐点。在智能交通领域，截至2020年底，百度已经为20多个城市提供了智能交通解决方案，预计到2023年，合作城市将超过100个。2020年，百度核心业务的云服务收入同比增长44%。在差异化优势方面，百度智能云具有AI解决方案及交叉销售的优势。例如，百度Q4财报显示，超30万托管页客户采用百度营销云服务平台，海量的广告主页讲促进云服务的发展。高盛预计，其智能云营收2021年预计将同比增长61%。</p><p>中投报告显示，中国智能驾驶市场预计将以136.2%的复合年增长率，从2019年的23亿元人民币增长至2025年的3990亿元人民币。通过过去二十多年通过多年投资于科研、AI芯片设计、开发者社区、专利及人才培养，百度正将AI落地为创新应用案例，高盛认为智能驾驶（智能汽车+Apollo开放平台）业务的爆发将是拉动百度股价上涨48%的另一个重要引擎。以2025年10倍 P/S计算，高盛给予Apollo估值200亿美元。智能汽车方面，高盛预测2025年百度将销售24万辆汽车，其总收入为487亿元人民币计算，以DCF估值方式计算，给予197亿美元估值。</p><p>在线广告方面，疫情影响百度核心广告业务的最坏时刻已经过去。短期内，医疗、教育、互联网、零售、房地产、家居和汽车等垂直行业广告市场的强劲复苏。中长期来看，高盛认为，百度将通过在内容投资和为用户创造价值方面的持续努力，进一步实现流量变现。特别是在直播领域，通过整合YY良好的社区化运营模式，强化移动生态以信息和知识为核心的直播内容，提高用户的粘性与活力，从而提高用户的商业化价值。</p><p>受通胀预期及美债收益率上升影响，截至3月24日，恒生指数累计收跌3.35%。百度二次上市首日股价表现稳定，充分显示了科技互联网核心<font>资产</font>仍有良好的基本面支撑，市场短期波动不应改变<font>长期投资</font>的逻辑。</p>市场风格不断切换，抓住低吸潜伏的好机会，关注入场时机，点击开户 &gt; &gt;</body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛：首予百度港股买入评级 目标价373港元上涨空间达48%</title>\n<style 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来源：时刻头条紧随百度在港股成功二次上市，高盛3月24日发布的最新研报给与其“买入”评级，并将目标价由每股383美元上调至每股385美元，港股每股目标价373港元，这意味着相对于每股262港元的发行价，百度还将进一步上涨48%，目标总市值超过1300亿美元。报告称，百度拥有多个增长引擎，有三大理由值得买(行情300785)入。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-03-24/doc-ikknscsk0823482.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a03a5ae5cfc1aad727ce9e6d2b27bb","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-03-24/doc-ikknscsk0823482.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121465465","content_text":"原标题：高盛：首予百度港股买入评级 目标价373港元上涨空间达48% 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>今晚会不会再宕机","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$今晚会不会再宕机","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965230938","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983177355,"gmtCreate":1583201882577,"gmtModify":1704349001563,"author":{"id":"3485556927658906","authorId":"3485556927658906","name":"MaxwellS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3de42d663b394f014070e945584dba0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3485556927658906","authorIdStr":"3485556927658906"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"竭泽而渔为利润","listText":"竭泽而渔为利润","text":"竭泽而渔为利润","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983177355","repostId":"1197050130","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197050130","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1583200328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197050130?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-03 09:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度，除了利润都是浮云","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197050130","media":"虎嗅","summary":"2020年2月28日，百度$(BIDU)$发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。\n2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应","content":"<p>2020年2月28日，百度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$(BIDU)$</a>发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。</p>\n<p>2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应市值416亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>营收结构演变进行时</b></p>\n<p>由于实体经济增速放缓对广告行业的负面影响，2019年Q1、Q2营收同比增速分别为15.4%和1.4%。Q3营收280.8亿，同比下降0.4%（<span>剔除已剥离业务</span>）。Q4营收289亿，同比增长6.2%，重新回到上升通道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1222d8798fd326d859e6a6a19cc9349c\"></p>\n<p>百度将营收分为两大块——“线上营销”及“其它收入”。“线上营销”即广告收入，主要来自大搜及爱奇艺，“其它收入”包括爱奇艺会员费、百度云等。</p>\n<p>近年百度线上营销收入（<span>即广告费</span>）占比下降，多元化趋势明显：2016年Q1，广告收入占总营收的94%；2018年Q1降至82%；2019年Q1降至73%。2019年Q4，线上营销、其它收入分别为208亿和81亿，广告收入占比72%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b0ad7c4c12987b96a6bbacac700ff6\"></p>\n<p>2019年Q4，百度“其它收入”达81亿，同比增长35.4%，爱奇艺付费会员业务是主要因素。</p>\n<p>爱奇艺营收按金额依次为：付费会员、广告、内容分发等业务，合计约占百度营收的四分之一。</p>\n<p>2019年12月末，爱奇艺付费会员突破1亿，全年会费收入144.7亿，同比增长36.2%。2019年H2，付费会员业务收入占比超过50%。</p>\n<p>2019年，爱奇艺广告收入82.9亿，同比下降11.2%。2019年，爱奇艺内容分发、其它收入（<span>如天象互娱的游戏业务</span>）分别为25.2亿、37.7亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1927520a47f86f820dab5c31a882b711\"></p>\n<p>从百度线上营销收入中剔除爱奇艺广告收入，“线上营销*”约等于“大搜”收入；从百度其它收入中剔除爱奇艺会员、分发及其它收入后，“其它收入*”主要来自云计算和AI商业化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4268f60dc2d051618e0759c6760c6e73\"></p>\n<p>2018年以来，大搜业务季度收入在150亿至200亿间性波动。2019年，除第一季度外，各季收入均低于2018年同期；全年收入698亿，同比下降3.8%。大搜业务仍然是“现金牛”，但增长已逼近极限，且受经济景气程度制约。</p>\n<p>2019年，“其它收入*”（<span>百度地图、阿波罗自动驾驶、鸿鹄芯片、昆仑芯片、小度音箱等</span>）总额85.6亿，同比增长81.2%。</p>\n<p>2015年百度营收中约有95%来自大搜业务的广告收入。</p>\n<p>2019年大搜、爱奇艺广告收入分别为699亿和83亿，合计占总营收的72.7%；爱奇艺会员收入145亿、合计占总营收的13.5%；其余13.8%来自云计算、AI商业化。</p>\n<p><b>四年间，大搜业务收入占比从95%降至67%。百度营收结构的变化还将持续下去。</b></p>\n<p><b>求人不如求己的绝地反击</b></p>\n<p>百度毛利润率曾经长期保持在60%以上。2018年Q4，百度毛利润率跌至42.6%，经营利润仅为11.1亿，同比下降77%；2019年Q1跌至38.5%，经营亏损9.36亿。</p>\n<p>2019年Q1出现上市以来首个季度亏损，Q2营收增速跌至个位数。不到半年，百度股价从180美元以上跌至100美元以下。</p>\n<p>2019年Q4，经营利润46.6亿，“蓝筹百度”又回来了。</p>\n<p>绝地反击的关键有两点：<b>毛利润率回升，费用率被有效控制。</b></p>\n<p>1）毛利润率回升靠内部挖潜</p>\n<p>2019年Q4的毛利润率为46.3%，比Q1高7.8个百分点。大家都知道爱奇艺高昂的内容成本拖累了百度，但此番毛利润率回升却与爱奇艺无关。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0e4debe3b5af034b578269013dd1fb\"></p>\n<p>2019年Q1，爱奇艺内容成本53亿，占百度营收成本的35.7%，百度毛利润率为38.5%；2019年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本57亿，占百度营收成本的36.7%，百度毛利润率为46.3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a568088104580de004cbf75b9eda648f\"></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺是推动百度营收增长的主要动力，压缩内容成本“副作用”显而易见，百度靠“内部挖潜”使毛利润率回到45%以上，难能可贵。</b></p>\n<p>2）控制费用率</p>\n<p>2019年Q1，毛利润跌破100亿至93亿，费用合计102亿，破天荒地出现9.4亿经营亏损。</p>\n<p>随后三个季度，百度在保持研发投入同时，着力压缩市场及行政费用。2019年Q1、Q4研发费用分别为41.7亿和47.6亿，市场及行政费用分别为60.5亿和39.4亿。Q4研发费用增加5.9亿，市场及行政费用费用减少21.1亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2837baeabad03d95ea2a69374c2db86\"></p>\n<p>将图中数据全换成百分数，看得更明白：毛利润率从2018年Q2的54%下降到2019年Q1的38%。同期，市场及行政、研发费率合计上涨9个百分点，结果经营亏损3.9%。</p>\n<p>2019年Q4，毛利润率回升到46%，费用率合计下降12个百分点，经营利润率16.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9926125add21b9fc63941619e3b77b\"></p>\n<p>想当年赚钱容易，舒服日子过惯了。如今想压缩成本、控制费用就是“反人性”，有可能会“犯众怒”，遭遇“非暴利不合作”。比如新东方，纵观其历史，其市场费用、行政费用加起来动不动就占营收的40%、50%，而且刚性十足、怎么也压不下来。</p>\n<p><b>外不卡爱奇艺脖子，内不饿研发肚子，十几个点的经营利润率不算高，但得之不易。</b></p>\n<p><b>江湖地位</b></p>\n<p>百度很在意BAT身份，当新秀有赶超苗头时难免焦虑。</p>\n<p>既然资本市场看中增长，百度就着力保持“高速增长”，以免市值“掉队”。直到2019年Q1出现单季经营亏损，股价大幅下挫，<b>百度才明白“只盯GMV、无视巨亏损的投资都去炒PDD了”，百度上市15年吸引的是“蓝筹爱好者”</b><span>（注：过往四个季度，PDD经营亏损133亿）</span>。</p>\n<p>当京东、美团、拼多多、网易、小米纷纷超越或接近，百度心态反而放松了。说白了就是“虱子多了不咬人”。</p>\n<p><b>从2019年下半年的业绩来看，百度已摆脱市值焦虑——增速高可喜、市值高可贺，但与赚到手的真金白银相比，那些都是浮云。</b></p>\n<p>不知从何时开始，BAT的提及频次也已大不如前，但百度“江湖地位”不应小觑。</p>\n<p>评价互联网公司，市值是最方便的指标，认识阿拉伯数字就行。但市值不是唯一，更不是最重要的指标，比如互联网服务收入、自有流量。</p>\n<p><b>中国互联网服务收入达到千亿的公司只有三家，这就是所谓的BAT。</b></p>\n<p>在可比的四个季度（<span>2018Q4、2019Q1~Q3</span>），百度营收1057亿、美团营收892亿、网易营收716亿、京东互联网服务收入598亿、拼多多营收250亿、小米互联网服务收入182亿……与百度有较大差距。</p>\n<p>石油巨头炫耀年产X亿桶原油、钢铁大王骄傲的是产量达到Y千万吨。互联网公司做的是流量生意，自有流量是王道。阿里不需要腾讯倒流、腾讯不会向百度买流量，这是BAT成为“三极”的根本原因。百度市值落后于AT，不是自有流量不够多，而是线上营销“天花板”低。好在线上营销收入占比已降至70%一线。</p>\n<p><b>按照收入、自有流量两个指标，百度仍是中国互联网“三极”之一。</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百度，除了利润都是浮云\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-03 09:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/342175.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年2月28日，百度$(BIDU)$发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。\n2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应市值416亿美元。\n营收结构演变进行时\n由于实体经济增速放缓对广告行业的负面影响，2019年Q1、Q2营收同比增速分别为15.4%和1.4%。Q3营收280.8亿，同比下降0.4%（剔除已剥离业务）。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/342175.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9083ea560ad849832bc28e4921bb34","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/342175.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197050130","content_text":"2020年2月28日，百度$(BIDU)$发布了2019年Q4及全年业绩。Q4营收、净利润分别为289亿和50.5亿，净利润同比增加789%。\n2019年Q4财报公布后，百度走出一根中阳线，收盘价对应市值416亿美元。\n营收结构演变进行时\n由于实体经济增速放缓对广告行业的负面影响，2019年Q1、Q2营收同比增速分别为15.4%和1.4%。Q3营收280.8亿，同比下降0.4%（剔除已剥离业务）。Q4营收289亿，同比增长6.2%，重新回到上升通道。\n\n百度将营收分为两大块——“线上营销”及“其它收入”。“线上营销”即广告收入，主要来自大搜及爱奇艺，“其它收入”包括爱奇艺会员费、百度云等。\n近年百度线上营销收入（即广告费）占比下降，多元化趋势明显：2016年Q1，广告收入占总营收的94%；2018年Q1降至82%；2019年Q1降至73%。2019年Q4，线上营销、其它收入分别为208亿和81亿，广告收入占比72%。\n\n2019年Q4，百度“其它收入”达81亿，同比增长35.4%，爱奇艺付费会员业务是主要因素。\n爱奇艺营收按金额依次为：付费会员、广告、内容分发等业务，合计约占百度营收的四分之一。\n2019年12月末，爱奇艺付费会员突破1亿，全年会费收入144.7亿，同比增长36.2%。2019年H2，付费会员业务收入占比超过50%。\n2019年，爱奇艺广告收入82.9亿，同比下降11.2%。2019年，爱奇艺内容分发、其它收入（如天象互娱的游戏业务）分别为25.2亿、37.7亿。\n\n从百度线上营销收入中剔除爱奇艺广告收入，“线上营销*”约等于“大搜”收入；从百度其它收入中剔除爱奇艺会员、分发及其它收入后，“其它收入*”主要来自云计算和AI商业化。\n\n2018年以来，大搜业务季度收入在150亿至200亿间性波动。2019年，除第一季度外，各季收入均低于2018年同期；全年收入698亿，同比下降3.8%。大搜业务仍然是“现金牛”，但增长已逼近极限，且受经济景气程度制约。\n2019年，“其它收入*”（百度地图、阿波罗自动驾驶、鸿鹄芯片、昆仑芯片、小度音箱等）总额85.6亿，同比增长81.2%。\n2015年百度营收中约有95%来自大搜业务的广告收入。\n2019年大搜、爱奇艺广告收入分别为699亿和83亿，合计占总营收的72.7%；爱奇艺会员收入145亿、合计占总营收的13.5%；其余13.8%来自云计算、AI商业化。\n四年间，大搜业务收入占比从95%降至67%。百度营收结构的变化还将持续下去。\n求人不如求己的绝地反击\n百度毛利润率曾经长期保持在60%以上。2018年Q4，百度毛利润率跌至42.6%，经营利润仅为11.1亿，同比下降77%；2019年Q1跌至38.5%，经营亏损9.36亿。\n2019年Q1出现上市以来首个季度亏损，Q2营收增速跌至个位数。不到半年，百度股价从180美元以上跌至100美元以下。\n2019年Q4，经营利润46.6亿，“蓝筹百度”又回来了。\n绝地反击的关键有两点：毛利润率回升，费用率被有效控制。\n1）毛利润率回升靠内部挖潜\n2019年Q4的毛利润率为46.3%，比Q1高7.8个百分点。大家都知道爱奇艺高昂的内容成本拖累了百度，但此番毛利润率回升却与爱奇艺无关。\n\n2019年Q1，爱奇艺内容成本53亿，占百度营收成本的35.7%，百度毛利润率为38.5%；2019年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本57亿，占百度营收成本的36.7%，百度毛利润率为46.3%。\n\n爱奇艺是推动百度营收增长的主要动力，压缩内容成本“副作用”显而易见，百度靠“内部挖潜”使毛利润率回到45%以上，难能可贵。\n2）控制费用率\n2019年Q1，毛利润跌破100亿至93亿，费用合计102亿，破天荒地出现9.4亿经营亏损。\n随后三个季度，百度在保持研发投入同时，着力压缩市场及行政费用。2019年Q1、Q4研发费用分别为41.7亿和47.6亿，市场及行政费用分别为60.5亿和39.4亿。Q4研发费用增加5.9亿，市场及行政费用费用减少21.1亿。\n\n将图中数据全换成百分数，看得更明白：毛利润率从2018年Q2的54%下降到2019年Q1的38%。同期，市场及行政、研发费率合计上涨9个百分点，结果经营亏损3.9%。\n2019年Q4，毛利润率回升到46%，费用率合计下降12个百分点，经营利润率16.1%。\n\n想当年赚钱容易，舒服日子过惯了。如今想压缩成本、控制费用就是“反人性”，有可能会“犯众怒”，遭遇“非暴利不合作”。比如新东方，纵观其历史，其市场费用、行政费用加起来动不动就占营收的40%、50%，而且刚性十足、怎么也压不下来。\n外不卡爱奇艺脖子，内不饿研发肚子，十几个点的经营利润率不算高，但得之不易。\n江湖地位\n百度很在意BAT身份，当新秀有赶超苗头时难免焦虑。\n既然资本市场看中增长，百度就着力保持“高速增长”，以免市值“掉队”。直到2019年Q1出现单季经营亏损，股价大幅下挫，百度才明白“只盯GMV、无视巨亏损的投资都去炒PDD了”，百度上市15年吸引的是“蓝筹爱好者”（注：过往四个季度，PDD经营亏损133亿）。\n当京东、美团、拼多多、网易、小米纷纷超越或接近，百度心态反而放松了。说白了就是“虱子多了不咬人”。\n从2019年下半年的业绩来看，百度已摆脱市值焦虑——增速高可喜、市值高可贺，但与赚到手的真金白银相比，那些都是浮云。\n不知从何时开始，BAT的提及频次也已大不如前，但百度“江湖地位”不应小觑。\n评价互联网公司，市值是最方便的指标，认识阿拉伯数字就行。但市值不是唯一，更不是最重要的指标，比如互联网服务收入、自有流量。\n中国互联网服务收入达到千亿的公司只有三家，这就是所谓的BAT。\n在可比的四个季度（2018Q4、2019Q1~Q3），百度营收1057亿、美团营收892亿、网易营收716亿、京东互联网服务收入598亿、拼多多营收250亿、小米互联网服务收入182亿……与百度有较大差距。\n石油巨头炫耀年产X亿桶原油、钢铁大王骄傲的是产量达到Y千万吨。互联网公司做的是流量生意，自有流量是王道。阿里不需要腾讯倒流、腾讯不会向百度买流量，这是BAT成为“三极”的根本原因。百度市值落后于AT，不是自有流量不够多，而是线上营销“天花板”低。好在线上营销收入占比已降至70%一线。\n按照收入、自有流量两个指标，百度仍是中国互联网“三极”之一。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989660937,"gmtCreate":1582816415929,"gmtModify":1704347845009,"author":{"id":"3485556927658906","authorId":"3485556927658906","name":"MaxwellS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3de42d663b394f014070e945584dba0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3485556927658906","authorIdStr":"3485556927658906"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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