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猛虎卧荒邱
2020-03-18
$歌礼制药-B(01672)$
完犊子
猛虎卧荒邱
2020-02-07
$歌礼制药-B(01672)$
买了 坐等临床试验结果
猛虎卧荒邱
2020-01-09
美国人不吃肉?浪费的比中国还多吧
抱歉,原内容已删除
猛虎卧荒邱
2020-01-03
个人是不会买苹果的。安卓将就着用
抱歉,原内容已删除
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-12-20
要是在大a,这个消息至少翻一倍了
抱歉,原内容已删除
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-05-23
$华米科技(HMI)$ 等散户知道的时候已经被埋了 草
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-05-23
$华米科技(HMI)$ 季报肯定不好,干他娘的,中国的股票全都是消息先行
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-05-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 应收这么点,增长直接下来了,目前值一亿就不错了。真特么坑
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-05-10
继续熬夜,钱没赚到,人垮了
@Larryliu:$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 各位韭菜起床的时候别沮丧,剧透一下,尾盘抢筹了,明天拉升
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-05-08
$中国光大水务(01857)$ 这种垃圾也敢上市,还收我100港元手续费。怪不得垃圾都去香港上市。活该港股是一潭死水
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-05-07
$中国光大水务(01857)$ 港股不是独角兽 不应该申购,赔钱稳稳的
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-04-26
就个人而言,偏向于相信女方。民事诉讼要求的赔偿也很少。完全谈不上为了钱干这事儿。至于刑事诉讼,没办法,证据很重要。参考辛普森案。
抱歉,原内容已删除
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-04-13
关于波音
$波音(BA)$来说一下波音的分析。首先我认为波音max的防失速软件存在本身就说明了max的结构性问题,根据我看到的报道,不管如何优化,都存在风险,只不过遇到失速风险是人来控制还是软件控制。这个失速问题导致两起空难事故,全球停飞以及一身官司,雪上加霜的是还有和欧盟的贸易战。 这些问题会导致一个临时性问题和一个可能的基本面问题。 临时性问题是下两个财季的季报肯定不乐观。这是短期做空的动力。 另外一个基本面问题是波音可能破产,或者财报会萎靡更长的时间。根据我观察老虎的数据,波音拥有一千亿美元的资产与一千亿美元的负债以及一百五十亿美元的现金流。也就是说,波音账面没有多少钱,而且目前波音max还没有停产。如果最后波音max能够顺利并且尽快得到解决(包括允许重飞和大范围的恢复订单),那问题不大。但是如果问题并不顺利,波音现金流耗尽,出现破产行为也不是不可能。至于波音现金流什么时候耗尽,需要更详细的数据分析(max的造价和产能,其他机型的现金流能否提供支持,以及美国是否会出手救助) 不管怎么样,希望不再出现空难。 现在都只是猜测,事实仍然蒙着面纱 不管哪种可能,我都会在财报之前做空,至于是否赚钱,谁也不知道。
关于波音
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-04-12
$波音(BA)$我希望财报前能涨到400
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-04-12
$波音(BA)$一涨多头就bb,一跌空头就bb。从大a换到美帝,环境变了,人没变
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-04-12
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$ 奈飞的利空看起来比波音大,所以。。。
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-04-04
$波音(BA)$华尔街机构控盘,有序撤退
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-03-22
$正一科技(MOSY)$延期180天,9月份再过来看
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-03-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$少涨点 过两天我好买
猛虎卧荒邱
2019-02-26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@MidasMike:《对赌》:德扑高手如何利用本能做出最佳决策?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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关键工具:(1)时间旅行者(10/10/10工具):通过回顾或者展望10小时/10天/10个月前(后)做出类似决定的感受或在类似情境下的应对,在短时间类建立理性决策框架;(2)尤尼西斯合约:通过机制设置避免做出冲动型非理性决策。 德州扑克的规则非常简单,就是5张牌比大小,其本质是一个决策游戏。选手需要在平均2分钟的一把牌局中,进行下注、跟注、弃牌、虚张声势或亮牌等多至20个决策。安妮·杜克发现德州扑克的本质和我们在生活和投资中最大的挑战是一样的:面对不确定的未来做决策。 而在我们的生活中,只有两件事决定了我们的生活质量:我们的决策质量和运气,对赌思维就是学习并认识两者的区别。 普通人关注短期结果,高手关注决策系统 贝叶斯定理指出科学决策的第一步是要把对事物的判断“概率化”,对赌思维则是将这种概率化的科学决策进一步“胜率化”。我们不能说“我觉得下雨了”,而要说“我觉得有65%的概率会下雨”,进而说“我愿意赌100元今天会下雨,因为我认为有65%的胜率。” 科学决策的一个境界是把决策水平和运气分开。如果一个选项A的胜率是65%,选项B的胜率是35%。科学决策是坚定地选A,但是如果连续两次结果都是B的话,我们应该改变策略去选择B吗?在德州扑克中,有经验的玩家会告诫新人警惕结果导向的危险,不能仅仅因为眼前的几手牌没有打好就改变策略。 现实生活中,我们有时会因为他人投机数字货币赚了10倍便认为数字货币是好投资;因为巴菲特2018年业绩不如意便认为他的理念过时。普通人关注短期结果,高手关注决策系统,这是科学的基本功。 用反射思维思维执行审慎","listText":"《对赌:信息不足时如何做出高明决策》的作者安妮·杜克原本是一名宾夕法尼亚大学认知心理学博士,但却转型为一位职业德扑玩家,并在职业生涯中赢取了超过400万美元奖金。结合自己的学术和实战经验,安妮·杜克开始为世界500强企业和投资机构进行科学决策培训。 关键工具:(1)时间旅行者(10/10/10工具):通过回顾或者展望10小时/10天/10个月前(后)做出类似决定的感受或在类似情境下的应对,在短时间类建立理性决策框架;(2)尤尼西斯合约:通过机制设置避免做出冲动型非理性决策。 德州扑克的规则非常简单,就是5张牌比大小,其本质是一个决策游戏。选手需要在平均2分钟的一把牌局中,进行下注、跟注、弃牌、虚张声势或亮牌等多至20个决策。安妮·杜克发现德州扑克的本质和我们在生活和投资中最大的挑战是一样的:面对不确定的未来做决策。 而在我们的生活中,只有两件事决定了我们的生活质量:我们的决策质量和运气,对赌思维就是学习并认识两者的区别。 普通人关注短期结果,高手关注决策系统 贝叶斯定理指出科学决策的第一步是要把对事物的判断“概率化”,对赌思维则是将这种概率化的科学决策进一步“胜率化”。我们不能说“我觉得下雨了”,而要说“我觉得有65%的概率会下雨”,进而说“我愿意赌100元今天会下雨,因为我认为有65%的胜率。” 科学决策的一个境界是把决策水平和运气分开。如果一个选项A的胜率是65%,选项B的胜率是35%。科学决策是坚定地选A,但是如果连续两次结果都是B的话,我们应该改变策略去选择B吗?在德州扑克中,有经验的玩家会告诫新人警惕结果导向的危险,不能仅仅因为眼前的几手牌没有打好就改变策略。 现实生活中,我们有时会因为他人投机数字货币赚了10倍便认为数字货币是好投资;因为巴菲特2018年业绩不如意便认为他的理念过时。普通人关注短期结果,高手关注决策系统,这是科学的基本功。 用反射思维思维执行审慎","text":"《对赌:信息不足时如何做出高明决策》的作者安妮·杜克原本是一名宾夕法尼亚大学认知心理学博士,但却转型为一位职业德扑玩家,并在职业生涯中赢取了超过400万美元奖金。结合自己的学术和实战经验,安妮·杜克开始为世界500强企业和投资机构进行科学决策培训。 关键工具:(1)时间旅行者(10/10/10工具):通过回顾或者展望10小时/10天/10个月前(后)做出类似决定的感受或在类似情境下的应对,在短时间类建立理性决策框架;(2)尤尼西斯合约:通过机制设置避免做出冲动型非理性决策。 德州扑克的规则非常简单,就是5张牌比大小,其本质是一个决策游戏。选手需要在平均2分钟的一把牌局中,进行下注、跟注、弃牌、虚张声势或亮牌等多至20个决策。安妮·杜克发现德州扑克的本质和我们在生活和投资中最大的挑战是一样的:面对不确定的未来做决策。 而在我们的生活中,只有两件事决定了我们的生活质量:我们的决策质量和运气,对赌思维就是学习并认识两者的区别。 普通人关注短期结果,高手关注决策系统 贝叶斯定理指出科学决策的第一步是要把对事物的判断“概率化”,对赌思维则是将这种概率化的科学决策进一步“胜率化”。我们不能说“我觉得下雨了”,而要说“我觉得有65%的概率会下雨”,进而说“我愿意赌100元今天会下雨,因为我认为有65%的胜率。” 科学决策的一个境界是把决策水平和运气分开。如果一个选项A的胜率是65%,选项B的胜率是35%。科学决策是坚定地选A,但是如果连续两次结果都是B的话,我们应该改变策略去选择B吗?在德州扑克中,有经验的玩家会告诫新人警惕结果导向的危险,不能仅仅因为眼前的几手牌没有打好就改变策略。 现实生活中,我们有时会因为他人投机数字货币赚了10倍便认为数字货币是好投资;因为巴菲特2018年业绩不如意便认为他的理念过时。普通人关注短期结果,高手关注决策系统,这是科学的基本功。 用反射思维思维执行审慎","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76956d624e92f300b213533a3cb2d7fb"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c661a213fba2f2777f3f19f4bd36cd"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03938ca7ecad97ca73f778b66a6aeab5"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409067","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":468387,"gmtCreate":1555123930312,"gmtModify":1704798099448,"author":{"id":"3482803676458215","authorId":"3482803676458215","name":"猛虎卧荒邱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9c7dcac206daa372eaa5daf3078d92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3482803676458215","authorIdStr":"3482803676458215"},"themes":[],"title":"关于波音","htmlText":"$波音(BA)$来说一下波音的分析。首先我认为波音max的防失速软件存在本身就说明了max的结构性问题,根据我看到的报道,不管如何优化,都存在风险,只不过遇到失速风险是人来控制还是软件控制。这个失速问题导致两起空难事故,全球停飞以及一身官司,雪上加霜的是还有和欧盟的贸易战。 这些问题会导致一个临时性问题和一个可能的基本面问题。 临时性问题是下两个财季的季报肯定不乐观。这是短期做空的动力。 另外一个基本面问题是波音可能破产,或者财报会萎靡更长的时间。根据我观察老虎的数据,波音拥有一千亿美元的资产与一千亿美元的负债以及一百五十亿美元的现金流。也就是说,波音账面没有多少钱,而且目前波音max还没有停产。如果最后波音max能够顺利并且尽快得到解决(包括允许重飞和大范围的恢复订单),那问题不大。但是如果问题并不顺利,波音现金流耗尽,出现破产行为也不是不可能。至于波音现金流什么时候耗尽,需要更详细的数据分析(max的造价和产能,其他机型的现金流能否提供支持,以及美国是否会出手救助) 不管怎么样,希望不再出现空难。 现在都只是猜测,事实仍然蒙着面纱 不管哪种可能,我都会在财报之前做空,至于是否赚钱,谁也不知道。","listText":"$波音(BA)$来说一下波音的分析。首先我认为波音max的防失速软件存在本身就说明了max的结构性问题,根据我看到的报道,不管如何优化,都存在风险,只不过遇到失速风险是人来控制还是软件控制。这个失速问题导致两起空难事故,全球停飞以及一身官司,雪上加霜的是还有和欧盟的贸易战。 这些问题会导致一个临时性问题和一个可能的基本面问题。 临时性问题是下两个财季的季报肯定不乐观。这是短期做空的动力。 另外一个基本面问题是波音可能破产,或者财报会萎靡更长的时间。根据我观察老虎的数据,波音拥有一千亿美元的资产与一千亿美元的负债以及一百五十亿美元的现金流。也就是说,波音账面没有多少钱,而且目前波音max还没有停产。如果最后波音max能够顺利并且尽快得到解决(包括允许重飞和大范围的恢复订单),那问题不大。但是如果问题并不顺利,波音现金流耗尽,出现破产行为也不是不可能。至于波音现金流什么时候耗尽,需要更详细的数据分析(max的造价和产能,其他机型的现金流能否提供支持,以及美国是否会出手救助) 不管怎么样,希望不再出现空难。 现在都只是猜测,事实仍然蒙着面纱 不管哪种可能,我都会在财报之前做空,至于是否赚钱,谁也不知道。","text":"$波音(BA)$来说一下波音的分析。首先我认为波音max的防失速软件存在本身就说明了max的结构性问题,根据我看到的报道,不管如何优化,都存在风险,只不过遇到失速风险是人来控制还是软件控制。这个失速问题导致两起空难事故,全球停飞以及一身官司,雪上加霜的是还有和欧盟的贸易战。 这些问题会导致一个临时性问题和一个可能的基本面问题。 临时性问题是下两个财季的季报肯定不乐观。这是短期做空的动力。 另外一个基本面问题是波音可能破产,或者财报会萎靡更长的时间。根据我观察老虎的数据,波音拥有一千亿美元的资产与一千亿美元的负债以及一百五十亿美元的现金流。也就是说,波音账面没有多少钱,而且目前波音max还没有停产。如果最后波音max能够顺利并且尽快得到解决(包括允许重飞和大范围的恢复订单),那问题不大。但是如果问题并不顺利,波音现金流耗尽,出现破产行为也不是不可能。至于波音现金流什么时候耗尽,需要更详细的数据分析(max的造价和产能,其他机型的现金流能否提供支持,以及美国是否会出手救助) 不管怎么样,希望不再出现空难。 现在都只是猜测,事实仍然蒙着面纱 不管哪种可能,我都会在财报之前做空,至于是否赚钱,谁也不知道。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/468387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3446804130956080","authorId":"3446804130956080","name":"东吴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3f0a9bb2a06734ffc82f620cf0397e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3446804130956080","authorIdStr":"3446804130956080"},"content":"等咱没了波音都不会破产。世界上要只剩空客 你就没飞机坐了。","text":"等咱没了波音都不会破产。世界上要只剩空客 你就没飞机坐了。","html":"等咱没了波音都不会破产。世界上要只剩空客 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