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养蜂绝地反击战
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养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-25
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
做空的人,你们是希望疫情一直持续吗?
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-09
$蔚来(NIO)$
今晚干!融资到位!加仓!
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
抛了 不玩了 太让人伤心 还是老实买奔驰 特斯拉吧
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
今天连4.30都打不上去了吗?熬了一晚了
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-24
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
美股与美国
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-30
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
很多人把瑞幸这家企业当成一家咖啡食品销售公司,在我看来,瑞幸这家企业更是一家具有强大野心的金融公司,首先不说企业的咖啡卖的如何,是否赔钱在卖,我相信瑞幸的侧重点不在于一天要卖出几百万杯的咖啡,是否通过咖啡赚钱,而在于一天要获得多少流量的注册数据,这些数据全部涵盖着这个社会上最具有消费潜力的庞大客户群体,也就是主要市场消费者,又有多少企业想不到一年的时间就可以拥有像微信和支付宝一样流量的消客数据流量,我相信瑞幸应该很快就做到了,有了流量可以干很多事,社交,理财,以及贷款,数量庞大的无人售货和加盟制,生成更多的瑞幸品牌饮品垄断乱综错杂的饮品市场,生成无人售卖机像日本一样放置在酒店,地铁,车站,学校,图书馆等等实体场景行成无人售卖场景。有多少人流一天就会有多少销量,这是个庞大市场前景。
养蜂绝地反击战
2019-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
我靠完蛋了
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-07-24
一场战争可以让股市灰飞烟灭,但会有很少的概率让你的房子变成粉尘。
抱歉,原内容已删除
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
它就像中国的华为一样,特斯拉是苹果,我们作为中国人好力挺国货的发展与未来,当所有人都开着特斯拉上路的时候想想你们自己的信息安全是不是已经都交到了美国人手里,蔚来是中国电动车的领军人,我们一定要把市值打起来,做多,再做多。大大的做多才对。
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-25
$携程网(TCOM)$
做空的人是希望疫情一直持续下去吗?
养蜂绝地反击战
2019-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
要是能破五我就打算买蔚来汽车了。
养蜂绝地反击战
2019-12-20
$携程网(TCOM)$
黑水基金涌入,上车时刻。
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-05-22
$跟谁学(GSX)$
今天可以进了
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-04-04
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
瑞幸一定能火起来
养蜂绝地反击战
2019-12-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
今天奔四没问题,长期持有突破六
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-07-08
$跟谁学(GSX)$
**还在涨 那些做空机构死光了吗?
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-05-27
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
一个骗子公司还能涨起来了 这股市哪有什么真假之别。何为价值,何为正义,何为天理!
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-01-24
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
咖啡呀,你这一个无人销售的咖啡,咋还被疫情干掉了。
养蜂绝地反击战
2019-12-24
$亿航智能(EH)$
这股就是个韭菜股 背后一路人员准备套现群众
养蜂绝地反击战
2020-05-23
$跟谁学(GSX)$
在股市里各位永远是韭菜
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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多少钱能买进现在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973277063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946352251,"gmtCreate":1595599990073,"gmtModify":1704209628082,"author":{"id":"3481678045470673","authorId":"3481678045470673","name":"养蜂绝地反击战","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3fb2aa88f5fdc1edf860e09cc5edba","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3481678045470673","authorIdStr":"3481678045470673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一场战争可以让股市灰飞烟灭,但会有很少的概率让你的房子变成粉尘。","listText":"一场战争可以让股市灰飞烟灭,但会有很少的概率让你的房子变成粉尘。","text":"一场战争可以让股市灰飞烟灭,但会有很少的概率让你的房子变成粉尘。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946352251","repostId":"1141702285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141702285","pubTimestamp":1595596578,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141702285?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-24 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中美博弈升级,下半年买股票还是房子?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141702285","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。","content":"<p>李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。</p><p>7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚,创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。</p><p>中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为,近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素,更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整,中美关系只是扰动市场的短期因素。</p><p>对于A股自3月低点以来总体回升、持续走高的态势,李迅雷认为经济和企业盈利基本面并不支持所谓的「全面牛市」。他指出,中国股市指数上涨,是由于原有估值体系正在经历修正,指数中权重较大的股票估值在走高。</p><p>同时,随着中国经济结构性转型,股市正在及时地反映消费升级、新旧产业更替等趋势。「从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。」他对《巴伦周刊》中文版说。</p><p>另一方面,最受国内投资者关注的房地产市场迅速摆脱新冠疫情影响,复苏势头明显。下半年,投资者该如何在股市和房地产之间权衡?</p><p>李迅雷认为,房地产销售自6月以来有所走弱,预示着疫情后房地产市场不会有太大起色。由于房价经历了长期上涨,房地产的投资回报率实际上也在下降。「长期而言,中国居民资产配置中房地产的占比过大,应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。」</p><p>在李迅雷看来,我们目前面临着「货币多、好资产少」的格局。在各大类资产中,他最看好权益资产,并认为投资者应该借助专业基金经理的专业技能去发现「好的稀缺资产」。</p><p>李迅雷此前曾先后在国泰君安证券、海通证券长期负责研究工作。近些年来,他对于中国经济转型、房地产市场趋势等话题的研究引发了广泛的社会反响。</p><p>以下是经过编辑的采访实录:01 中美关系只是短期扰动</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:中美紧张关系近两日来有所升温,而A股在23日、24日连续两个交易日收低,且北向资金也连续出现净流出。您如何看待当前市场出现的调整?中美关系波动是否会对A股造成持续冲击?</p><p>李迅雷:我认为中美局势是一个触发因素,但不是主要影响因素。主要因素在于,近一段时间以来产业资本减持、新股发行以及北上资金流出等,带来了一定的变化。今年以来一些股票涨幅比较大,而随着新股发行规模加大,尤其是7月比较集中,市场短期内的供需关系有了变化,也会造成一些心理影响。市场在这一过程中做出调整是正常现象,毕竟短期内冲高的幅度有些大。</p><p>中美关系波动接下来不会对A股造成较大的冲击,因为大部分的变化已经在预期之内。另一方面,中美紧张关系进一步升级的可能性也并不大,两国高级代表还计划于8月会面,将会评估第一阶段贸易协议的落实,并讨论下一步如何做。所以,中美关系会带来一些扰动因素,但市场的调整更多的是市场自身的原因。</p><p>以上这些都是短期因素,真正的原因还是在于估值的调整。A股市场估值目前处在一个相对均衡的水平,如果经济基本面下半年能够继续好转的话,那么市场还是应该会有上升的动力。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:上证综指从3月低点大幅回升,进入7月后涨幅尤其明显。您如何看待当前A股大涨的推动因素?为什么进入7月后涨幅会明显扩大?</p><p>李迅雷:对于股市涨跌,我们事后找原因的话会发现有好多原因。但问题在于,事前预测7月会出现大幅上涨是很难通过逻辑推理来实现的。</p><p>不过,股市上涨的逻辑肯定是存在的。美国股市近来为什么涨那么多?在美国疫情如此严峻的情况下、在美国经济大幅度的负增长情况下,美国股市为什么表现这么好?美股从技术性熊市变成技术性牛市,而且纳斯达克指数还创了历史新高?这显然还是跟美联储的「无限量量化宽松」的货币政策有关,与美国财政部大量举债来救助企业和个人也是相关的。我觉得这是一个主要由资金推动的市场行情。</p><p>美国作为一个成熟市场,况且有这么反常的表现,中国作为新兴市场出现股市上涨就并不意外。无论是资金面、技术面和基本面,中国股市都具备一定的支撑因素。</p><p>资金面来讲,上半年中国的广义货币供应量(M2)增速还是比较高的,与名义GDP增速之间的缺口达到了历史较高水平。虽然我们不像美国这样大规模的放水,但是我们实际上也采取了比较宽松的货币政策,降准、降息也比较频繁。</p><p>就基本面而言,在全球经济都受到疫情严重影响的情况下,中国的疫情基本上得到控制,所以经济复苏的迹象是非常明显。这对于上市公司的基本面改善也提供了一定的支撑。</p><p>另外,中国居民在收入出现负增长的情况下,消费的降幅更大,导致储蓄有所增加。老百姓少消费、多投资,对股市也是有利的。</p><p>02 经济转型催生结构性牛市</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:基于A股目前的上涨行情,有不少人认为A股正在经历一轮长期牛市或全面牛市,您怎么看待这种观点?</p><p>李迅雷:我觉得A股目前出现长期牛市的观点不大能成立。我们整个经济还处在转型期,中国股市跟美国股市不一样,我们属于新兴市场。这几年我们上市公司的亏损面是在扩大的,盈利增速有所下降。</p><p>目前所谓的牛市,我认为更多是对现有估值体系的一种修正——是修正而不是修复。这种估值体系修正产生了结构性的牛市。</p><p>以往,A股估值体系当中绩差股、小市值股票估值较高,大市值股票的估值比较低,即「对不确定性溢价」,「对确定性折价」。现在反过来了,小市股票估值水平在往下走,大市值股票的估值水平在往上走。由于大市值股票更能够带动指数,所以这个指数是在往上走。另一方面,股价下跌的股票的数量是在增加的,因为中小市值股票在市场当中占比较大。</p><p>这样的话,从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。原先的估值体系是不合理的,给予小市值的、净资产收益率(ROE)比较低的公司比较高的估值,而ROE比较高、大市值的公司估值较低。</p><p>结构性牛市另一种表现是,医药生物、电子、通讯、计算机等高科技行业代表新经济动能的股票,估值水平是在往上走的。另外,代表居民消费升级的食品饮料板块,总体估值水平也是在往上走。与此同时,传统经济板块的估值水平基本上没有太大变化,现在还是处在相对较低的估值水平。</p><p>所以,这两种结构性的变化给A股带来了一种牛市的感觉。这些变化跟中国经济结构调整、转型升级是相关的。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:从基本面投资的角度来看,这些行业和板块的长期投资价值也更大?</p><p>李迅雷:是的。传统经济领域中,一些与消费升级明显相关的行业,估值得到了提升。最典型的比如白酒行业,估值水平从过去的十几倍市盈率已经上升到现在的二三十倍市盈率。尽管它属于传统行业,但它属于消费类的行业、不是传统的周期类行业。中国经济已经从投资主导转化为消费主导,所以消费板块连续两年的涨幅都处于领先水平。</p><p>对于一些新兴行业(包括医药生物、计算机、互联网、新能源新材料等),它们的估值水平虽然不便宜,但大家更看重未来的发展前景,这也是符合逻辑、有理性成分的。这种逻辑跟过去炒小盘、炒绩差股、炒地域概念的逻辑还是有差别。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:A股今年的这一轮涨势在多大程度上反映了中国经济的改善?</p><p>李迅雷:我觉得对中国经济转型将是一个非常漫长的过程,没有十年、二十年年很难完成。所以,我们不要把股市上涨跟我们的经济增速变化过多联系在一起,我觉得股市的变化更多地是在反映中国经济结构的变化,而通过数学模型分析,A股指数的表现好坏跟我们经济的好坏,没有很明显的相关性。</p><p>大家常说「中国股市是中国经济的晴雨表」,我觉得「晴雨表」更多是在反映经济结构,而不是反映经济的走势。</p><p>现在股市里面涨得好的股票往往都是跟中国经济转型相关的,而不是跟中国经济周期相关。A股与中国经济的周期性变化关联度不大。实际上,这些年中国经济的周期特征越来越弱了,因为逆周期经济政策强度比较大、调控频率越来越高。</p><p>但是,中国经济的结构性变化还是能够比较及时地在股市上反映出来。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:到7月22日,科创板开板整整一年,这一年的表现是否符合您的预期?接下来科创板的投资价值如何?</p><p>李迅雷:科创板在初始阶段估计是「优中选优」,第一批、第二批上市的公司可能是科创企业中的佼佼者,因此它们带来的投资回报是非常惊人的。</p><p>今后,随着科创板的扩容,可能上市条件会相对有所放松。注册制这种政策上的创新,一开始必定会受到各方面的高度重视,会有非常严格的把关。随着数量的增加,可能上市的门槛会降低,优秀公司的占比也会下降。这样的话,它的整体投资回报率可能不会像第一年那么高。</p><p>03 A股估值体系还有非理性成分</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:你如何看待当前阶段A股与美股的相关性?有观点认为,考虑到中国经济在全球经济当中的重要性, A股上涨对于美国、欧洲等股市可能是一个利好信号,您怎么看?</p><p>李迅雷:我觉得相关性还是比较大的。比如说,美国的纳斯达克指数创历史新高,A股里面的创业板也创了近年新高。再比如说,今年上半年医药板块在纳斯达克表现比较强劲,基金经理都普遍提高配置比例,在A股市场同样也是被国内的机构投资者所看好。这反映出全球资本市场的联动性越来越大了。</p><p>这个也跟中国资本市场的开放度的提升有关。今年以来,境外机构在国内注册投资公司、证券公司的条件大大放宽了,境外资金参与A股市场的比重也显著提高。这也意味着 A股跟美股市场的联动性的提高。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:在疫情发生之前,美国股市经历了将近十一年的长期「慢牛」。现在,越来越多的国际投资者对中国市场持乐观态度。在您看来,中国市场能否也实现一段超长期的「慢牛」?</p><p>李迅雷:如果说我们这个市场发展顺利的话,我觉得也是有可能的。但是,我们一定要看清股市中的「二八分化」现象。比如,过去11年的美国纳斯达克市场中,累计涨幅前10%股票的市值占到其总市值的将近一半。这10%的股票上涨约20倍,而大部分股票都几乎没涨,甚至下跌。</p><p>中国毕竟还是一个新兴市场,我们一定要看到差距所在。如A股跟H股的价差是非常大的,基本上都有30%到50%左右。这也就是说,A股的股价水平普遍要要比H股高出30%到50%,说明A股的估值体系其实还是存在一些非理性的成分。</p><p>假设H股的估值相对合理的话,那么A股是不是存在估值偏高的问题?或者没有整体偏高,是不是存在局部偏高的问题?如果作为局部估值偏高的市场,随着境外投资者参与度的提高,估值的进一步修正是不是还会延续?</p><p>我觉得还是要看得更加长远一点,不能做简单的类比。美国股市已经有220多年的历程,而中国股市只有30年的历程,我们跟人家的差距还非常大。</p><p>04 房地产销量难创新高,人口集中看三条线</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月底,中国房地产开发投资、商品房销售面积和销售额等多个指标降幅连续5个月收窄。其中,房地产开发投资增速年内还首次转正。在经历疫情冲击的背景下,国内房地产市场为何能够快速复苏?</p><p>李迅雷:国内疫情主要的爆发期是2月和3月。4月以后疫情已经大大缓解,这与境外形成鲜明反差。二季度国内疫情基本上得到控制,所以对房地产的销售和投资都没有形成太大影响,主要影响还是在一季度。</p><p>到了二季度,房地产销售出现报复性的反弹。房地产跟普通消费不一样,它主要是刚需和投资性需求。与旅游餐饮等服务消费不同,后者「过期作废」,而疫情对于房地产的销售不会带来太大影响,对房地产开发投资的影响也不大。一季度本身就是投资淡季,一般等到二季度投资增速会回升,这是可以理解的。</p><p>但是,我发现6月的销售数据已经有点走弱了,强劲的反弹势头主要还是在5月。所以,我不认为房地产会有很大的起色。</p><p>中国房地产毕竟已经经历了20年的牛市,这在历史上是非常罕见的。尤其在2018-2019年,整个固定资产投资增速回落到5%左右,但房地产投资增速依然很高,可以说一枝独秀。这个是一个非常奇特的现象。</p><p>延续到今年的话,我想不管有没有疫情,今年的新房销量不会再创新高了。我预计,今后几年房地产销量也都很难再创新高。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月,5年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)从2019年8月的4.85%降至4.65%。与此同时,货币供应量、社会融资总量增速等指标上半年也处在较高水平。低利率和宽裕的流动性是否会支撑房价继续走高?</p><p>李迅雷:这个肯定是有一定支撑的,并且我认为利率下行趋势还没到位。最近这段时间,利率债的下跌,是因为大家都在预期宽信用,而降息的可能性似乎不大。但我觉得,下半年经济依然有下行压力,预计还是会继续降息。</p><p>如果降息的话,对于资本市场、房地产市场都是一个利好因素。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:您常常从人口流动视角分析不同城市的房地产市场。目前来看,还有哪些城市的人口趋势是有利于当地房地产市场的?</p><p>李迅雷:我先不讲房价会怎样,因为谁也说不准如今的房价水平是不是已经反映了未来的预期变化。就像股价上涨了,你说当前的股价是不是已经反映了大家对公司盈利增长的预期?我不知道。</p><p>但是,至少从2019年人口数据来看的话,人口净流入最多的省份是浙江省,其中90%的人口增量流到了杭州和宁波。而今年杭州和宁波的房价涨幅也名列全国前茅。说明房价与人口流向存在明显相关性。</p><p>我觉得整个中国人口未来会集中到三条线上。第一条线就是粤港澳大湾区,包括深圳、广州、佛山,以及珠海、东莞和惠州。第二条线是杭州湾湾区。除了杭州、宁波之外,还包括像嘉兴、绍兴。第三条线是长江经济带,东部包含了上海、南京、无锡、苏州、南通。这几个城市的人口也是净流入的。再往中游的话,主要是长沙和武汉,往西部的话主要就是重庆、成都。</p><p>未来这三条线上的城市人口还是会不断增加的,中国的大城市化进程方兴未艾,人口集中度会越来越高。</p><p>05 房地产投资回报率下降,配置金融资产是长期逻辑</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:有机构认为,居民财富正在从房地产和银行体系中走出来,朝着股市转移或者「搬家」,并且认为这会是一种长期趋势。您怎么看?您也观察到了这样的趋势吗?</p><p>李迅雷:判断这种趋势,我们要用数据来说话。从数据来看,我们没有发现就大量的资金从房地产流出,因为房价现在还比较稳定。没有确切数据可以证明资金在从楼市流到股市。至于储蓄「搬家」,居民存款也没有特别明显的减少。</p><p>但有一点,目前居民收入是略有下降,而消费是大幅下降。这表明资金从消费领域转移到投资领域。我们看到,公募基金的发行规模出现比较明显的扩大,这说明股市增量资金有相当一部分是来自于居民对公募基金的申购。</p><p>另外,今年3月以来外资出现净流入,这也是股市增量资金的一个来源。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:那么如果现在有投资者在投资房产和投资股票之间面临两难选择,您能给出一些建议吗?</p><p>李迅雷:房子价格越来越高,随着分母变大,它的投资回报率其实是在下降的。比如说,10多年前,你以每平方米5000元的价格买一套房子,可能现在涨到每平方米五万元,十倍的投资回报率;但你现在以每平米五万元买房,未来要涨到每平米十万元,即实现一倍的回报率会更有难度。而且,不是每个城市都有这样的增长潜力。另一方面,比房地产更好的那些投资工具如今也更加丰富了。</p><p>我觉得我们应该更多地去配置金融资产,这是一个长期逻辑。中国居民资产配置中,房地产的配置比重过大,大概在70%左右。美国大概30%左右。从未来大格局来讲,应该降低房地产的配置比例,增加金融资产的配置比例。金融资产里面又分为股票、债券、公募基金等产品,准金融资产里边还包括黄金等等。</p><p>我们现在其实面临着「货币多、好资产少」这样一个格局,我们应该配置的是好资产、稀缺资产。</p><p>随之而来的一个问题是:稀缺资产的估值是不是太高了?我的建议还是要找专业的人士,把钱委托给优秀的基金经理来配置,他们可以判断目前所谓好资产的估值到底是贵还是便宜。</p><p>就股票投资而言,买股票就是买未来,我们是基于未来预期来判断目前股价到底是贵还是便宜。如果说它的盈利未来能够保持每年30%到50%的增长,那么这样的股票现在很多是非常便宜的。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:从今年下半年到明年上半年,各大类资产当中您比较看好的是哪些?</p><p>李迅雷:第一个,我还是比较看好权益资产。主要是我前面讲的好公司、好的行业。这个话讲起来容易,实际操作过程中,可能大部分投资者都不具备寻找好公司、好的稀缺资产的能力。我的建议还是买那些优秀基金经理所管理的基金,这是这么多年来最重要的经验。</p><p>第二类,我看好黄金。我认为未来存在资产泡沫破灭的风险,还可能出现全球经济下行、金融动荡、甚至战争等的风险。此外,货币超发是这次疫情下的货币当局普遍做法。事实上,从1929年至今,美元纸币增长了330倍,而美国经济实际只增长了16倍,黄金存量只增长了6.7倍。从1971年开始算,美元纸币增长了21倍,美国经济实际增长2.7倍,黄金存量只增长了1.1倍。从这个角度来讲的话,黄金既是避险工具,又是投资品。</p><p>对于风险厌恶型的投资者,可以关注一些固定收益类的低风险产品,比如利率债、一些货币型产品、保本理财产品等等。</p><p>至于房地产,对于那些人口持续净流入的发达大城市,我觉得还是可以持有,如日本东京在经历了房地产泡沫破灭之后,还会创新高。不过,从大类资产的角度来看,我认为房地产不是一个很好的配置工具。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》中文版:谢谢您的分享。</p>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中美博弈升级,下半年买股票还是房子?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-24 21:16 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw><strong>巴伦周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚,创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为,近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素,更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整,中美关系只是扰动市场的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa2149ef8a80f77e2806ac3e2644925","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CbHVbvhCwpUeCszUZK6caw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141702285","content_text":"李迅雷认为,疫情过后房地产市场不会有太大起色,投资回报率实际上也在下降。长期应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。7月24日(周五),A股遭遇大幅调整,上证指数失守3200点,下跌近130点。前期一路强势的创业板指跌势更甚,创下最近5个多月最大单日跌幅。中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷认为,近日中美紧张局势升级只是市场的一个触发因素,更主要是的市场供需变化带来的正常调整,中美关系只是扰动市场的短期因素。对于A股自3月低点以来总体回升、持续走高的态势,李迅雷认为经济和企业盈利基本面并不支持所谓的「全面牛市」。他指出,中国股市指数上涨,是由于原有估值体系正在经历修正,指数中权重较大的股票估值在走高。同时,随着中国经济结构性转型,股市正在及时地反映消费升级、新旧产业更替等趋势。「从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。」他对《巴伦周刊》中文版说。另一方面,最受国内投资者关注的房地产市场迅速摆脱新冠疫情影响,复苏势头明显。下半年,投资者该如何在股市和房地产之间权衡?李迅雷认为,房地产销售自6月以来有所走弱,预示着疫情后房地产市场不会有太大起色。由于房价经历了长期上涨,房地产的投资回报率实际上也在下降。「长期而言,中国居民资产配置中房地产的占比过大,应该减少对房地产的配置、增加对金融资产的配置。」在李迅雷看来,我们目前面临着「货币多、好资产少」的格局。在各大类资产中,他最看好权益资产,并认为投资者应该借助专业基金经理的专业技能去发现「好的稀缺资产」。李迅雷此前曾先后在国泰君安证券、海通证券长期负责研究工作。近些年来,他对于中国经济转型、房地产市场趋势等话题的研究引发了广泛的社会反响。以下是经过编辑的采访实录:01 中美关系只是短期扰动《巴伦周刊》中文版:中美紧张关系近两日来有所升温,而A股在23日、24日连续两个交易日收低,且北向资金也连续出现净流出。您如何看待当前市场出现的调整?中美关系波动是否会对A股造成持续冲击?李迅雷:我认为中美局势是一个触发因素,但不是主要影响因素。主要因素在于,近一段时间以来产业资本减持、新股发行以及北上资金流出等,带来了一定的变化。今年以来一些股票涨幅比较大,而随着新股发行规模加大,尤其是7月比较集中,市场短期内的供需关系有了变化,也会造成一些心理影响。市场在这一过程中做出调整是正常现象,毕竟短期内冲高的幅度有些大。中美关系波动接下来不会对A股造成较大的冲击,因为大部分的变化已经在预期之内。另一方面,中美紧张关系进一步升级的可能性也并不大,两国高级代表还计划于8月会面,将会评估第一阶段贸易协议的落实,并讨论下一步如何做。所以,中美关系会带来一些扰动因素,但市场的调整更多的是市场自身的原因。以上这些都是短期因素,真正的原因还是在于估值的调整。A股市场估值目前处在一个相对均衡的水平,如果经济基本面下半年能够继续好转的话,那么市场还是应该会有上升的动力。《巴伦周刊》中文版:上证综指从3月低点大幅回升,进入7月后涨幅尤其明显。您如何看待当前A股大涨的推动因素?为什么进入7月后涨幅会明显扩大?李迅雷:对于股市涨跌,我们事后找原因的话会发现有好多原因。但问题在于,事前预测7月会出现大幅上涨是很难通过逻辑推理来实现的。不过,股市上涨的逻辑肯定是存在的。美国股市近来为什么涨那么多?在美国疫情如此严峻的情况下、在美国经济大幅度的负增长情况下,美国股市为什么表现这么好?美股从技术性熊市变成技术性牛市,而且纳斯达克指数还创了历史新高?这显然还是跟美联储的「无限量量化宽松」的货币政策有关,与美国财政部大量举债来救助企业和个人也是相关的。我觉得这是一个主要由资金推动的市场行情。美国作为一个成熟市场,况且有这么反常的表现,中国作为新兴市场出现股市上涨就并不意外。无论是资金面、技术面和基本面,中国股市都具备一定的支撑因素。资金面来讲,上半年中国的广义货币供应量(M2)增速还是比较高的,与名义GDP增速之间的缺口达到了历史较高水平。虽然我们不像美国这样大规模的放水,但是我们实际上也采取了比较宽松的货币政策,降准、降息也比较频繁。就基本面而言,在全球经济都受到疫情严重影响的情况下,中国的疫情基本上得到控制,所以经济复苏的迹象是非常明显。这对于上市公司的基本面改善也提供了一定的支撑。另外,中国居民在收入出现负增长的情况下,消费的降幅更大,导致储蓄有所增加。老百姓少消费、多投资,对股市也是有利的。02 经济转型催生结构性牛市《巴伦周刊》中文版:基于A股目前的上涨行情,有不少人认为A股正在经历一轮长期牛市或全面牛市,您怎么看待这种观点?李迅雷:我觉得A股目前出现长期牛市的观点不大能成立。我们整个经济还处在转型期,中国股市跟美国股市不一样,我们属于新兴市场。这几年我们上市公司的亏损面是在扩大的,盈利增速有所下降。目前所谓的牛市,我认为更多是对现有估值体系的一种修正——是修正而不是修复。这种估值体系修正产生了结构性的牛市。以往,A股估值体系当中绩差股、小市值股票估值较高,大市值股票的估值比较低,即「对不确定性溢价」,「对确定性折价」。现在反过来了,小市股票估值水平在往下走,大市值股票的估值水平在往上走。由于大市值股票更能够带动指数,所以这个指数是在往上走。另一方面,股价下跌的股票的数量是在增加的,因为中小市值股票在市场当中占比较大。这样的话,从2017年到现在为止,其实就是一个结构性的牛市。原先的估值体系是不合理的,给予小市值的、净资产收益率(ROE)比较低的公司比较高的估值,而ROE比较高、大市值的公司估值较低。结构性牛市另一种表现是,医药生物、电子、通讯、计算机等高科技行业代表新经济动能的股票,估值水平是在往上走的。另外,代表居民消费升级的食品饮料板块,总体估值水平也是在往上走。与此同时,传统经济板块的估值水平基本上没有太大变化,现在还是处在相对较低的估值水平。所以,这两种结构性的变化给A股带来了一种牛市的感觉。这些变化跟中国经济结构调整、转型升级是相关的。《巴伦周刊》中文版:从基本面投资的角度来看,这些行业和板块的长期投资价值也更大?李迅雷:是的。传统经济领域中,一些与消费升级明显相关的行业,估值得到了提升。最典型的比如白酒行业,估值水平从过去的十几倍市盈率已经上升到现在的二三十倍市盈率。尽管它属于传统行业,但它属于消费类的行业、不是传统的周期类行业。中国经济已经从投资主导转化为消费主导,所以消费板块连续两年的涨幅都处于领先水平。对于一些新兴行业(包括医药生物、计算机、互联网、新能源新材料等),它们的估值水平虽然不便宜,但大家更看重未来的发展前景,这也是符合逻辑、有理性成分的。这种逻辑跟过去炒小盘、炒绩差股、炒地域概念的逻辑还是有差别。《巴伦周刊》中文版:A股今年的这一轮涨势在多大程度上反映了中国经济的改善?李迅雷:我觉得对中国经济转型将是一个非常漫长的过程,没有十年、二十年年很难完成。所以,我们不要把股市上涨跟我们的经济增速变化过多联系在一起,我觉得股市的变化更多地是在反映中国经济结构的变化,而通过数学模型分析,A股指数的表现好坏跟我们经济的好坏,没有很明显的相关性。大家常说「中国股市是中国经济的晴雨表」,我觉得「晴雨表」更多是在反映经济结构,而不是反映经济的走势。现在股市里面涨得好的股票往往都是跟中国经济转型相关的,而不是跟中国经济周期相关。A股与中国经济的周期性变化关联度不大。实际上,这些年中国经济的周期特征越来越弱了,因为逆周期经济政策强度比较大、调控频率越来越高。但是,中国经济的结构性变化还是能够比较及时地在股市上反映出来。《巴伦周刊》中文版:到7月22日,科创板开板整整一年,这一年的表现是否符合您的预期?接下来科创板的投资价值如何?李迅雷:科创板在初始阶段估计是「优中选优」,第一批、第二批上市的公司可能是科创企业中的佼佼者,因此它们带来的投资回报是非常惊人的。今后,随着科创板的扩容,可能上市条件会相对有所放松。注册制这种政策上的创新,一开始必定会受到各方面的高度重视,会有非常严格的把关。随着数量的增加,可能上市的门槛会降低,优秀公司的占比也会下降。这样的话,它的整体投资回报率可能不会像第一年那么高。03 A股估值体系还有非理性成分《巴伦周刊》中文版:你如何看待当前阶段A股与美股的相关性?有观点认为,考虑到中国经济在全球经济当中的重要性, A股上涨对于美国、欧洲等股市可能是一个利好信号,您怎么看?李迅雷:我觉得相关性还是比较大的。比如说,美国的纳斯达克指数创历史新高,A股里面的创业板也创了近年新高。再比如说,今年上半年医药板块在纳斯达克表现比较强劲,基金经理都普遍提高配置比例,在A股市场同样也是被国内的机构投资者所看好。这反映出全球资本市场的联动性越来越大了。这个也跟中国资本市场的开放度的提升有关。今年以来,境外机构在国内注册投资公司、证券公司的条件大大放宽了,境外资金参与A股市场的比重也显著提高。这也意味着 A股跟美股市场的联动性的提高。《巴伦周刊》中文版:在疫情发生之前,美国股市经历了将近十一年的长期「慢牛」。现在,越来越多的国际投资者对中国市场持乐观态度。在您看来,中国市场能否也实现一段超长期的「慢牛」?李迅雷:如果说我们这个市场发展顺利的话,我觉得也是有可能的。但是,我们一定要看清股市中的「二八分化」现象。比如,过去11年的美国纳斯达克市场中,累计涨幅前10%股票的市值占到其总市值的将近一半。这10%的股票上涨约20倍,而大部分股票都几乎没涨,甚至下跌。中国毕竟还是一个新兴市场,我们一定要看到差距所在。如A股跟H股的价差是非常大的,基本上都有30%到50%左右。这也就是说,A股的股价水平普遍要要比H股高出30%到50%,说明A股的估值体系其实还是存在一些非理性的成分。假设H股的估值相对合理的话,那么A股是不是存在估值偏高的问题?或者没有整体偏高,是不是存在局部偏高的问题?如果作为局部估值偏高的市场,随着境外投资者参与度的提高,估值的进一步修正是不是还会延续?我觉得还是要看得更加长远一点,不能做简单的类比。美国股市已经有220多年的历程,而中国股市只有30年的历程,我们跟人家的差距还非常大。04 房地产销量难创新高,人口集中看三条线《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月底,中国房地产开发投资、商品房销售面积和销售额等多个指标降幅连续5个月收窄。其中,房地产开发投资增速年内还首次转正。在经历疫情冲击的背景下,国内房地产市场为何能够快速复苏?李迅雷:国内疫情主要的爆发期是2月和3月。4月以后疫情已经大大缓解,这与境外形成鲜明反差。二季度国内疫情基本上得到控制,所以对房地产的销售和投资都没有形成太大影响,主要影响还是在一季度。到了二季度,房地产销售出现报复性的反弹。房地产跟普通消费不一样,它主要是刚需和投资性需求。与旅游餐饮等服务消费不同,后者「过期作废」,而疫情对于房地产的销售不会带来太大影响,对房地产开发投资的影响也不大。一季度本身就是投资淡季,一般等到二季度投资增速会回升,这是可以理解的。但是,我发现6月的销售数据已经有点走弱了,强劲的反弹势头主要还是在5月。所以,我不认为房地产会有很大的起色。中国房地产毕竟已经经历了20年的牛市,这在历史上是非常罕见的。尤其在2018-2019年,整个固定资产投资增速回落到5%左右,但房地产投资增速依然很高,可以说一枝独秀。这个是一个非常奇特的现象。延续到今年的话,我想不管有没有疫情,今年的新房销量不会再创新高了。我预计,今后几年房地产销量也都很难再创新高。《巴伦周刊》中文版:截至6月,5年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)从2019年8月的4.85%降至4.65%。与此同时,货币供应量、社会融资总量增速等指标上半年也处在较高水平。低利率和宽裕的流动性是否会支撑房价继续走高?李迅雷:这个肯定是有一定支撑的,并且我认为利率下行趋势还没到位。最近这段时间,利率债的下跌,是因为大家都在预期宽信用,而降息的可能性似乎不大。但我觉得,下半年经济依然有下行压力,预计还是会继续降息。如果降息的话,对于资本市场、房地产市场都是一个利好因素。《巴伦周刊》中文版:您常常从人口流动视角分析不同城市的房地产市场。目前来看,还有哪些城市的人口趋势是有利于当地房地产市场的?李迅雷:我先不讲房价会怎样,因为谁也说不准如今的房价水平是不是已经反映了未来的预期变化。就像股价上涨了,你说当前的股价是不是已经反映了大家对公司盈利增长的预期?我不知道。但是,至少从2019年人口数据来看的话,人口净流入最多的省份是浙江省,其中90%的人口增量流到了杭州和宁波。而今年杭州和宁波的房价涨幅也名列全国前茅。说明房价与人口流向存在明显相关性。我觉得整个中国人口未来会集中到三条线上。第一条线就是粤港澳大湾区,包括深圳、广州、佛山,以及珠海、东莞和惠州。第二条线是杭州湾湾区。除了杭州、宁波之外,还包括像嘉兴、绍兴。第三条线是长江经济带,东部包含了上海、南京、无锡、苏州、南通。这几个城市的人口也是净流入的。再往中游的话,主要是长沙和武汉,往西部的话主要就是重庆、成都。未来这三条线上的城市人口还是会不断增加的,中国的大城市化进程方兴未艾,人口集中度会越来越高。05 房地产投资回报率下降,配置金融资产是长期逻辑《巴伦周刊》中文版:有机构认为,居民财富正在从房地产和银行体系中走出来,朝着股市转移或者「搬家」,并且认为这会是一种长期趋势。您怎么看?您也观察到了这样的趋势吗?李迅雷:判断这种趋势,我们要用数据来说话。从数据来看,我们没有发现就大量的资金从房地产流出,因为房价现在还比较稳定。没有确切数据可以证明资金在从楼市流到股市。至于储蓄「搬家」,居民存款也没有特别明显的减少。但有一点,目前居民收入是略有下降,而消费是大幅下降。这表明资金从消费领域转移到投资领域。我们看到,公募基金的发行规模出现比较明显的扩大,这说明股市增量资金有相当一部分是来自于居民对公募基金的申购。另外,今年3月以来外资出现净流入,这也是股市增量资金的一个来源。《巴伦周刊》中文版:那么如果现在有投资者在投资房产和投资股票之间面临两难选择,您能给出一些建议吗?李迅雷:房子价格越来越高,随着分母变大,它的投资回报率其实是在下降的。比如说,10多年前,你以每平方米5000元的价格买一套房子,可能现在涨到每平方米五万元,十倍的投资回报率;但你现在以每平米五万元买房,未来要涨到每平米十万元,即实现一倍的回报率会更有难度。而且,不是每个城市都有这样的增长潜力。另一方面,比房地产更好的那些投资工具如今也更加丰富了。我觉得我们应该更多地去配置金融资产,这是一个长期逻辑。中国居民资产配置中,房地产的配置比重过大,大概在70%左右。美国大概30%左右。从未来大格局来讲,应该降低房地产的配置比例,增加金融资产的配置比例。金融资产里面又分为股票、债券、公募基金等产品,准金融资产里边还包括黄金等等。我们现在其实面临着「货币多、好资产少」这样一个格局,我们应该配置的是好资产、稀缺资产。随之而来的一个问题是:稀缺资产的估值是不是太高了?我的建议还是要找专业的人士,把钱委托给优秀的基金经理来配置,他们可以判断目前所谓好资产的估值到底是贵还是便宜。就股票投资而言,买股票就是买未来,我们是基于未来预期来判断目前股价到底是贵还是便宜。如果说它的盈利未来能够保持每年30%到50%的增长,那么这样的股票现在很多是非常便宜的。《巴伦周刊》中文版:从今年下半年到明年上半年,各大类资产当中您比较看好的是哪些?李迅雷:第一个,我还是比较看好权益资产。主要是我前面讲的好公司、好的行业。这个话讲起来容易,实际操作过程中,可能大部分投资者都不具备寻找好公司、好的稀缺资产的能力。我的建议还是买那些优秀基金经理所管理的基金,这是这么多年来最重要的经验。第二类,我看好黄金。我认为未来存在资产泡沫破灭的风险,还可能出现全球经济下行、金融动荡、甚至战争等的风险。此外,货币超发是这次疫情下的货币当局普遍做法。事实上,从1929年至今,美元纸币增长了330倍,而美国经济实际只增长了16倍,黄金存量只增长了6.7倍。从1971年开始算,美元纸币增长了21倍,美国经济实际增长2.7倍,黄金存量只增长了1.1倍。从这个角度来讲的话,黄金既是避险工具,又是投资品。对于风险厌恶型的投资者,可以关注一些固定收益类的低风险产品,比如利率债、一些货币型产品、保本理财产品等等。至于房地产,对于那些人口持续净流入的发达大城市,我觉得还是可以持有,如日本东京在经历了房地产泡沫破灭之后,还会创新高。不过,从大类资产的角度来看,我认为房地产不是一个很好的配置工具。《巴伦周刊》中文版:谢谢您的分享。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557633426720473","authorId":"3557633426720473","name":"三吨才富","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8122ccc46b021a93cb25082489d6a4b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557633426720473","authorIdStr":"3557633426720473"},"content":"可房子在战火洗澡,无法变现金呀。大家屯吃喝商品+厕纸,饿了啃房子钢筋水泥行吗?极端情况下,一袋粮食+一桶水可以换一套房,继命才是最重要的,重新定义什么是财负!","text":"可房子在战火洗澡,无法变现金呀。大家屯吃喝商品+厕纸,饿了啃房子钢筋水泥行吗?极端情况下,一袋粮食+一桶水可以换一套房,继命才是最重要的,重新定义什么是财负!","html":"可房子在战火洗澡,无法变现金呀。大家屯吃喝商品+厕纸,饿了啃房子钢筋水泥行吗?极端情况下,一袋粮食+一桶水可以换一套房,继命才是最重要的,重新定义什么是财负!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949400654,"gmtCreate":1594286028478,"gmtModify":1704204928560,"author":{"id":"3481678045470673","authorId":"3481678045470673","name":"养蜂绝地反击战","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3fb2aa88f5fdc1edf860e09cc5edba","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3481678045470673","authorIdStr":"3481678045470673"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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