九日1518的个人主页 - 老虎社区

九日1518

九日1518

个人简介：看清自己，了解自己！䦶属于自己的那份财富，做人不要太贪心！

IP属地：北京

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0勋章

2021-12-03

$滴滴(DIDI)$幸亏盘前8.65跑了，要不一地鸡毛！比起买入16，无语了！

2021-06-04

$AMC院线(AMC)$今天有可能到70$，加油！

2021-06-03

$AMC院线(AMC)$刚刚50做空，结果直接60我立刻止损！现在直接就下来，再也不敢做空了要命呀！

2020-03-30

$信而富(XRF)$ 如果真的收购也是一件好事，对信而富来说是坏事，没有造血的机器，换句话没有讲故事的筹码了。真的收购股价一定上涨，等等看不就着两天了吗？能等！不行就做空他让他退市！

2021-06-26

$每日优鲜(MF)$发起论坛，准备做空他！

2021-07-02

$滴滴(DIDI)$关心政策很重要……

2022-01-24

$AMC院线(AMC)$我在5💲等你………

2021-07-26

$滴滴(DIDI)$为什么没上市之前都很好，上了之后全是问题，一个接着一个！都被榨干，生存路越来越窄了！

2021-06-24

$TradeUP Acquisition Corp.(UPTDU)$打新股最多30股，最少15股！逗闷子哪！

2021-06-03

$AMC院线(AMC)$今天又给自己深深上了一课，也参与一把，刺激！

2021-04-07

$拼多多(PDD)$这回拼多多麻烦了！警惕风险，以免是下一个跟谁学！从149点到30！

2021-02-16

$爱奇艺(IQ)$有机会一定做空他，爱奇艺的app经常出错播放不了，下载也经常出问题，我就是他会员体验度极差，这样的公司股票能好，真不敢相信！在高点做空他！

2020-04-08

$信而富(XRF)$ 希望剩下的你们同胞能团价起来，共度难关，各个部门有信心才行。只要不倒就有希望！

2020-04-08

$信而富(XRF)$ 公司都到现在了，所以踏踏实实做好自己擅长慢慢打造盈利，肯定能起来！毕竟是给银行做风控起家，不应该这么久倒下了！基本业务不能断，抓重点找合作实打实的才是王道！其实公司本身就是技术起家，应该以技术为主拓展更多的银行合作，而不是停止不前！把新的资产装入进来，大家才能看到希望！其实北京首航团队很强大，看如何管理和如何把握了。以上只是个人观点

2019-10-28

$信而富(XRF)$ 纽交所退市标准！欢迎大家参考！

2022-01-25

$宜人金科(YRD)$中国在美股上市最早一家互联网金融公司，还在撑着实属不易！宜信加油！

2019-11-04

$信而富(XRF)$ 信而富马上就要结束，中国第二家互联网金融公司在美国纽交所上市，现在要成为最快在美国退市的公司！上市目的何在，骗骗机构偏偏期待很高的客户，画了一个大饼！

2019-10-29

$信而富(XRF)$ 信而富还在做最后的挣扎，还是退市吧！大家都期待！[开心][开心][开心]

2019-10-21

$信而富(XRF)$ 新的一周又开始了，新的下跌也开始了！退市边缘，倒计时也开始了！[贱笑][贱笑][贱笑]

2019-10-17

$信而富(XRF)$ 可能也就拉一下，股基还要下跌的！

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>用中国一句古话，回光返照！哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>用中国一句古话，回光返照！哈哈","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$用中国一句古话，回光返照！哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612248695","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612223929,"gmtCreate":1652362792761,"gmtModify":1652362792761,"author":{"id":"3479756609562461","authorId":"3479756609562461","name":"九日1518","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bcd5d00be90f9205968301395d4b255","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>不多说了，发行价见！","listText":"<a 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height=\"auto\"/></p><p>（图片来自UNsplash）</p><p><b>前后脚公布财报，Uber、Lyft同病相怜？</b></p><p>周二美股盘后，Lyft公布一季度财报和二季度业绩展望。虽然营收同比大幅增长且亏损额有所收窄，但活跃用户数、二季度业绩指引均不及市场预期，还是导致股价大幅下挫。截止周三收盘时，Lyft股价定格在21.56美元，单日暴跌29.91%，创2020年10月以来新低。</p><p>仅仅一天之后，Lyft的老冤家Uber也公布了一季度财报，表现同样一言难尽。数据显示，Uber一季度营收同比翻倍，调整后EBITDA也实现扭亏为盈。然而， 由于投资失利，Uber一季度还是录得59亿美元的归母净亏损。</p><p>值得一提的是，财报公布后不久，Stifel宣布将Uber目标价从48美元下调至40美元。由此可见，即使刨除投资失利造成的巨幅亏损，资本市场对这位网约车巨头的前景也并不看好。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ab9fc509c7949aee5ba170512e2b4e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ffc8e3658d880bc65553612de9d7db\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>从Lyft到Uber，再到深陷退市风波中的滴滴，全球三大网约车巨头均如履薄冰。头部平台尚且如此，背后更多中腰部玩家的处境也就不言而喻了。</p><p>需求稳定、用户体量庞大的网约车市场，何以沦落至此？整个行业是否已经跌至谷底？</p><p>从Lyft、Uber这两份新鲜的财报中，我们可以发现很多问题。</p><p><b>首先要肯定的是，网约车市场活跃度已较疫情爆发初期明显恢复，Lyft、Uber营收、订单量的大幅增长就是最好的证据。</b></p><p>先看Uber这边。数据显示，Uber一季度总营收69亿美元，同比暴涨136%；经调整后息税折旧和摊销前收益1.68亿美元，两项数据均高于华尔街预期。而从营收结构来看，移动出行业务以25.2亿美元反超配送业务的25.1亿，重新成为Uber头号现金牛，同比更是录得195%的大幅增长。</p><p>再看Lyft这边，营收同样非常能打。数据显示，一季度Lyft总营收为8.76亿美元，较去年同期的6.09亿增长44%，但环比出现10%的下降。</p><p>要知道，Lyft是Uber之后的美国第二大网约车平台，巅峰时期在美国多个州和城市击败市占率击败Uber，整体份额也在30%以上。以这样的体量，Lyft当前的营收规模必然无法令人满意。</p><p><b>而且从过去几个季度的营收变化曲线来看，过去一年Lyft的营收恢复程度还是稍逊于Uber，后者体现出了更强大的业务韧性和更健康的营收结构。</b></p><p>根据财报数据，Uber上一财年四个季度营收分别录得29.03亿、39.29亿、48.45亿和57.78亿美元，同比分别增长-11%、105%、72%和83%，一季度之后基本实现触底反弹。Lyft过去四个季度的营收则分别为6.09亿、7.75亿、8.64亿和9.69亿，对应的同比增速则录得-36%、125%、73%和70%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f174fab78b81612eae37a3931aab2b54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>从订单量和活跃用户数的变化中也可以看出，去年二季度是Uber和Lyft一个重要的业绩分界线。</p><p>财报数据显示，截止一季度末Uber平均月活跃平台消费者为1.15亿，过去五个季度分别增长-5%、84%、40%、27%和17%，目前已经基本上恢复到疫情前的正常水平。Lyft的情况也类似，一季度活跃用户数录得1780万，同比增长31.9%，比去年同期同比下滑36%的表现明显改善。</p><p><b>然而，Uber和Lyft的问题也很明显：利润率依旧微薄。前者虽然基本摆脱亏损，但盈利并不稳定，后者更是仍未找到盈亏平衡点。</b></p><p>Lyft这边，稳定盈利仍是一道难题。</p><p>数据显示，Lyft一季度调整后EBITDA为5480万美元，同比大幅增长1.28亿美元，但环比收缩了1990万美元，利润率也较上一季度的7.7%下滑至6.3%。此外，运营亏损从去年同期的4.16亿压缩到如今的1.99亿，Lyft的成绩可谓来之不易。</p><p>可惜的是，Lyft似乎难以保持这种增长势头。和一季度财报同时公布的二季度业绩展望指出，下一季度Lyft预期营收为9.5-10亿美元，不及Street Account和彭博经济学家预测中值10.2亿美元，这也是导致Lyft股价崩盘的重要原因。</p><p>如果说Lyft是在为自身业务烦恼的话，Uber的问题就更复杂一些。</p><p>财报显示，Uber一季度归母净亏损为59.3亿美元，亏损幅度远超去年同期的1.08亿美元，且摊薄后每股亏损也高达3.04美元，同比去年同期也是大幅放大。不过正如前文所说，Uber这次血亏，不是怪自身业务，而是要怪投资眼光：其中56亿的税前亏损来自股权投资，3.59亿亏损来自股票薪酬支出。</p><p>需要注意的是，Uber一季度调整后EBITDA利润率占总订单金额录得0.6%，明显优于去年同期的-1.8%，这也表明Uber自身业务表现并不算很糟糕。</p><p>如果你翻看Uber的投资版图就可以发现，给其带来近60亿亏损的投资标的，大多是自己的同行——其中就包括有“东南亚Uber”之称的Grab和滴滴，以及自动驾驶初创公司Aurora。</p><p>再联想到营收结构单一、只专注于网约车业务的Lyft营收增速不及Uber，或许我们已经意识到一个更严重的问题：<b>萎缩的不止Uber和Lyft，而是整个网约车行业。</b></p><p><b>收入全靠佣金、人力成本高企，网约车平台的无解难题</b></p><p>糟糕的投资眼光和同行的不作为，给网约车老大Uber的一季度成绩单蒙上“污点”，这对整个行业来说都不是一件好事。</p><p>比如上文提及的Uber两笔失败投资滴滴和Grab，日子更加不好过。</p><p>根据滴滴不久前公布的2021年年报，其全年营收为1738.27亿，同比增长22.64%，但亏损额同比疯狂扩大365.06%至106.08亿，“亏损额日均增长1%”成为滴滴留给外界的最深刻印象。</p><p>众所周知，和实现多元化转型的Uber相比，滴滴、Lyft营收都仍高度依赖网约车业务。不断捣鼓社区团购、货运业务的滴滴，上一财年中国出行业务营收占比还是高达92%，国际业务和其他业务全年营收仅分别为36.2亿和96.8亿元。</p><p>从这几个头部平台的业务状况足以表明，网约车市场正处于绝对低潮。</p><p>这种低潮因何而来？</p><p><b>价值研究所认为，疫情当然是一个重要因素，但绝对不是唯一原因。</b></p><p><b>一方面，疫情的确让网约车需求在短期内大幅减少。</b>以国内市场为例。根据高德大数据的报告，今年3月份全国网约车订单数同比骤降19%至5.4亿单，是去年1月份以来的最低水平。与此相对应的，是网约车的重点市场、一、二线大城市居民出行率的下滑。</p><p>数据显示，3月份全国100城拥堵延时指数平均值为1.51，上海、深圳两个受疫情影响严重的一线城市甚至要低于这个平均水平。</p><p>跟踪全球119个国家和地区、近140家运营商出行数据的研究机构Strategy Analytics的报告称，去年上半年全球网约车市场总收益下降18%，总预订量也大幅下滑，预计整个共享出行市场最快要到2022年年底才能迎来复苏。</p><p>按如今的情况来看，Strategy Analytics的报告并非危言耸听，网约车市场的颓势或许真的超出了业界的预期。</p><p><b>另一方面，我们也不能忽视网约车行业一些由来已久的问题——特别是成本失衡和营收结构单一。</b>在疫情的冲击下，这些问题被进一步放大，才会导致各大头部平台陷入困境。</p><p><b>在成本端，人力支出是网约车平台心头永恒的痛。</b></p><p>一季度财报显示，Uber单季总成本达到73.36亿美元，较去年同期的44.27亿美元激增65.7%。具体支出结构而言，营收成本录得40.26亿美元占比最高，且较去年同期翻了一倍有余，运营和支持支出、销售及营销支出也全面上升。</p><p>根据Rakuten Intelligence统计的数据，过去三年间Uber和Lyft的人力支出成本提升了92%，但仍然无法满足运力需求。彭博统计的数据显示，截止去年三季度，Uber和Lyft实际司机数量比最大容量低了40%左右，这也导致纽约、洛杉矶等城市乘客等待时间明显延长。</p><p>为了争夺司机资源，Uber和Lyft不得不提供更多的激励政策以及提高常规待遇，甚至主动让利。</p><p>在国内，滴滴也有同样的困境。</p><p>随着美团打车复活以及首汽约车、曹操出行、T3出行等老玩家不断加码，加上监管政策收紧司机和营运车辆的资格审查，平台的人力成本也是一路走高。</p><p>美团打车复活首日，就重启疯狂地推策略，在北京、南京、上海等三十多个城市大肆招募司机。而美团提供的激励包也是十分诱人：7天免佣、拉新奖励、超出行业平均水平的高峰接单津贴等一应俱全。</p><p><b>然而，由于网约车业务主要依靠抽佣盈利，在订单量因疫情而下滑的情况下，主动放弃部分佣金收入必然会对营收、利润率产生较大影响，从而形成恶性循环。</b></p><p>更重要的是，在司机团队不断扩大之际，如何协调好平台和司机的矛盾、做好人员管理，也是一个难题。</p><p>去年7月份，Uber、Lyft的网约车司机在共享汽车联盟的组织下举行大罢工，要求提高薪酬待遇、成立工会。短短数日内，罢工活动在洛杉矶、旧金山、波士顿、奥斯汀和克利夫兰等多个城市蔓延，一时间让Uber、Lyft推向舆论的对立面，遭到媒体和网友的口诛笔伐。</p><p>综合上述情况，在价值研究所看来，<b>商业模式过于单一，依赖补贴抢夺用户和司机资源，在扩大规模之后又无法协调好乘客-司机-平台之间的矛盾关系，是Uber、滴滴和Lyft所有问题的根源。</b></p><p>事实上，Uber在上市之初就已经意识到商业模式的问题，于是才会执着于开拓外卖、货运等新业务，务求向多元化经营转型。</p><p>有关补贴的弊端，Uber、滴滴过往的种种经历都足够说明问题。现在回过头来看，在发家之后没有将大量的资金拿去构建基础设施反倒是用于补贴司机和乘客，这样的两头补贴模式很容易让用户“上瘾”，一旦不再补贴，就会导致乘客或者司机流失，进而影响供需两端体验加速流失，形成又一个恶性循环。</p><p>而接下，它们需要想办法解决这个终极难题——开源节流，是一个很现实的选择。</p><p><b>海外市场多处开花，Uber、滴滴、Lyft必有一战</b></p><p><b>可以肯定的是，就算几家头部平台都陷入低谷，网约车市场的争夺也不会停止。</b></p><p>在国内市场，一级融资市场热度不减。IT桔子统计的数据显示，2021年国内网约车行业共完成9起投融资事件，涉及金额合计125.2亿元，是过去三年的最高水平。其中，曹操出行、T3出行、大众出行等头部平台都在去年先后完成最新一轮融资，T3出行的77亿元A轮融资更是近年来网约车行业最大单一融资。</p><p>从用户规模和渗透率来看，虽然增速已经比不上爆发期，但仍保持平稳增长。CNNIC的统计就显示，截止去年上半年国内网约车用户规模约为3.97亿，使用率39.2%，较上一年同期增长2.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/832a207fc742edabf8cc225a92c5463f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>（图片来自前瞻产业研究院）</p><p>只不过滴滴也明白，国内市场竞争激烈、线上流量红利已经枯竭，要想达到开源的目的，必须走向国际化。</p><p><b>这就意味着，在海外市场，滴滴和Uber、Lyft之间必然还会有一场恶战。</b></p><p>早些年，由于国内市场足够稳定且垄断优势明显，滴滴对海外市场的开发一直相当谨慎。2018年在巴西和当地网约车平台99 Taxi合作推出打车业务，是其在海外市场的第一次尝试。之后直到2020年底在墨尔本设立澳新总部、入驻新西兰市场，滴滴才开拓了11个海外根据地。</p><p>但在国内疫情爆发以及确定上市之后，为了尽快开拓营收来源、争取更高估值空间，滴滴终于加快了海外扩张步伐。</p><p><b>在拉美市场，滴滴和Uber的竞争就已经来到白热化阶段。</b></p><p>在2018年投资99 Taxi之外，滴滴随后两年分别进驻墨西哥、智利和哥伦比亚市场，在拉美和Uber展开全面对抗。为了适应当地移动支付普及率不高的状况，滴滴还和墨西哥连锁便利店Oxxo合作，为所有到Oxxo消费的顾客提供现金充值滴滴余额服务，相当于曲线实现信用卡线上支付闭环。</p><p>要知道，Oxxo是墨西哥第一大连锁便利巨头，市占率超过80%。从99 Taxi到Oxxo，滴滴找地头蛇带路、注重本土化运营的扩张策略，均达到事半功倍的效果。</p><p>而滴滴进攻拉美，对Uber来说也是一件非常头疼的事。</p><p>拉美是Uber移动出行业务的第二大营收支柱，历年营收贡献率仅次于美国本土市场。但根据CIC统计的数据，2022年三季度之后Uber在辣么地区的订单量、营收同比均出现下滑，滴滴则乘势而上成为当地第二大网约车平台。截止去年四季度，滴滴在来没市场的占有率已经超过30%，无限逼近Uber。</p><p><b>当然，在海外市场大肆攻城猎地的同时，滴滴依然要注意成本控制的问题。</b></p><p>4月13日，据多家媒体报道，滴滴将退出南非市场，并且已经向当地司机发布停服通知。</p><p>之所以败退南非，和滴滴此前疯狂烧钱争抢客户的策略有很大关系。公开信息显示，滴滴在南非抽佣比例为13%，仅为Uber的一半左右，远高于国内的30%抽佣上限。</p><p>开源和节流，从来都不是孤立的环节，而是需要相互协调、相互配合进行。海外市场的争夺战还远没到分胜负的时候，这时候就需要考验滴滴、Uber们的调整能力和业务韧性了。</p><p><b>写在最后</b></p><p>滴滴从攀上巅峰到跌入谷底，时间真的很短。</p><p>不知道还有多少人记得，在鲸吞Uber（中国）、一统国内网约车市场的时候，程维曾登上彭博商业周刊封面，被后者送上“Uber屠夫”的称号。彼时在华尔街一众大鳄眼中，滴滴是一个潜力无穷的香馍馍，在硅谷的科技大佬心里，这是一个能正面击溃Uber、需要时刻警惕的危险对手。</p><p>如今，不过短短6年之后，滴滴已经经历了太多不如意的事：闪电上市又主动退市，旗下APP被无限期下架，还有期间爆发的多起安全事故，无论业务前景还是坊间口碑都也跌至冰点。而这种种不利事件不仅将这位昔日备受市场期待的后起之秀逼到了悬崖边上，也揭露了整个网约车行业的弊端。</p><p>当然，滴滴现在还在积极自救，Lyft和Uber也在努力寻找增加营收、压缩亏损的方法，网约车赛道的融资也还是热闹非凡，整个行业还是充满希望。</p><p>无需质疑，网约车是生活刚需，Uber、滴滴和Lyft们不会被用户完全抛弃。只不过，面对越来越大的生存压力，它们需要尽快找到控制成本、稳定盈利的方式。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1636160223908","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n网约车没有春天？滴滴、Uber、Lyft必有一战\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-05 21:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU4NjEwNDU5MQ==&mid=2247508336&idx=1&sn=b088d0a0a6e0b9c16f11c1e16cb8ffdd&chksm=fd828b10caf502064edfa105dee01d52f7d21b80ea291b0b05507ed6d3be5073caf518e59b4b#rd><strong>价值研究所</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周二美股盘后，Lyft公布一季度财报和二季度业绩展望。仅仅一天之后，Lyft的老冤家Uber也公布了一季度财报，两大巨头的表现都一言难尽：前者活跃用户数、二季度业绩指引均不及市场预期，后者由于投资失利一季度录得59亿美元的归母净亏损。从Lyft到Uber，再到深陷退市风波中的滴滴，全球三大网约车巨头均如履薄冰。头部平台尚且如此，背后更多中腰部玩家的处境也就不言而喻了。网约车行业的低潮因何而来？价值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU4NjEwNDU5MQ==&mid=2247508336&idx=1&sn=b088d0a0a6e0b9c16f11c1e16cb8ffdd&chksm=fd828b10caf502064edfa105dee01d52f7d21b80ea291b0b05507ed6d3be5073caf518e59b4b#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0788c7efcfeee999da266be0a8e359e7","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","LYFT":"Lyft, Inc.","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU4NjEwNDU5MQ==&mid=2247508336&idx=1&sn=b088d0a0a6e0b9c16f11c1e16cb8ffdd&chksm=fd828b10caf502064edfa105dee01d52f7d21b80ea291b0b05507ed6d3be5073caf518e59b4b#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154400727","content_text":"周二美股盘后，Lyft公布一季度财报和二季度业绩展望。仅仅一天之后，Lyft的老冤家Uber也公布了一季度财报，两大巨头的表现都一言难尽：前者活跃用户数、二季度业绩指引均不及市场预期，后者由于投资失利一季度录得59亿美元的归母净亏损。从Lyft到Uber，再到深陷退市风波中的滴滴，全球三大网约车巨头均如履薄冰。头部平台尚且如此，背后更多中腰部玩家的处境也就不言而喻了。网约车行业的低潮因何而来？价值研究所认为，疫情当然是一个重要因素，但绝对不是唯一原因。在Lyft、Uber这两份新鲜的财报中，我们可以发现网约车行业的许多老问题：高企的成本，难以协调的司机-平台-乘客三方关系……为了解决这些问题，Uber们需要补的功课还有很多。（图片来自UNsplash）前后脚公布财报，Uber、Lyft同病相怜？周二美股盘后，Lyft公布一季度财报和二季度业绩展望。虽然营收同比大幅增长且亏损额有所收窄，但活跃用户数、二季度业绩指引均不及市场预期，还是导致股价大幅下挫。截止周三收盘时，Lyft股价定格在21.56美元，单日暴跌29.91%，创2020年10月以来新低。仅仅一天之后，Lyft的老冤家Uber也公布了一季度财报，表现同样一言难尽。数据显示，Uber一季度营收同比翻倍，调整后EBITDA也实现扭亏为盈。然而， 由于投资失利，Uber一季度还是录得59亿美元的归母净亏损。值得一提的是，财报公布后不久，Stifel宣布将Uber目标价从48美元下调至40美元。由此可见，即使刨除投资失利造成的巨幅亏损，资本市场对这位网约车巨头的前景也并不看好。从Lyft到Uber，再到深陷退市风波中的滴滴，全球三大网约车巨头均如履薄冰。头部平台尚且如此，背后更多中腰部玩家的处境也就不言而喻了。需求稳定、用户体量庞大的网约车市场，何以沦落至此？整个行业是否已经跌至谷底？从Lyft、Uber这两份新鲜的财报中，我们可以发现很多问题。首先要肯定的是，网约车市场活跃度已较疫情爆发初期明显恢复，Lyft、Uber营收、订单量的大幅增长就是最好的证据。先看Uber这边。数据显示，Uber一季度总营收69亿美元，同比暴涨136%；经调整后息税折旧和摊销前收益1.68亿美元，两项数据均高于华尔街预期。而从营收结构来看，移动出行业务以25.2亿美元反超配送业务的25.1亿，重新成为Uber头号现金牛，同比更是录得195%的大幅增长。再看Lyft这边，营收同样非常能打。数据显示，一季度Lyft总营收为8.76亿美元，较去年同期的6.09亿增长44%，但环比出现10%的下降。要知道，Lyft是Uber之后的美国第二大网约车平台，巅峰时期在美国多个州和城市击败市占率击败Uber，整体份额也在30%以上。以这样的体量，Lyft当前的营收规模必然无法令人满意。而且从过去几个季度的营收变化曲线来看，过去一年Lyft的营收恢复程度还是稍逊于Uber，后者体现出了更强大的业务韧性和更健康的营收结构。根据财报数据，Uber上一财年四个季度营收分别录得29.03亿、39.29亿、48.45亿和57.78亿美元，同比分别增长-11%、105%、72%和83%，一季度之后基本实现触底反弹。Lyft过去四个季度的营收则分别为6.09亿、7.75亿、8.64亿和9.69亿，对应的同比增速则录得-36%、125%、73%和70%。从订单量和活跃用户数的变化中也可以看出，去年二季度是Uber和Lyft一个重要的业绩分界线。财报数据显示，截止一季度末Uber平均月活跃平台消费者为1.15亿，过去五个季度分别增长-5%、84%、40%、27%和17%，目前已经基本上恢复到疫情前的正常水平。Lyft的情况也类似，一季度活跃用户数录得1780万，同比增长31.9%，比去年同期同比下滑36%的表现明显改善。然而，Uber和Lyft的问题也很明显：利润率依旧微薄。前者虽然基本摆脱亏损，但盈利并不稳定，后者更是仍未找到盈亏平衡点。Lyft这边，稳定盈利仍是一道难题。数据显示，Lyft一季度调整后EBITDA为5480万美元，同比大幅增长1.28亿美元，但环比收缩了1990万美元，利润率也较上一季度的7.7%下滑至6.3%。此外，运营亏损从去年同期的4.16亿压缩到如今的1.99亿，Lyft的成绩可谓来之不易。可惜的是，Lyft似乎难以保持这种增长势头。和一季度财报同时公布的二季度业绩展望指出，下一季度Lyft预期营收为9.5-10亿美元，不及Street Account和彭博经济学家预测中值10.2亿美元，这也是导致Lyft股价崩盘的重要原因。如果说Lyft是在为自身业务烦恼的话，Uber的问题就更复杂一些。财报显示，Uber一季度归母净亏损为59.3亿美元，亏损幅度远超去年同期的1.08亿美元，且摊薄后每股亏损也高达3.04美元，同比去年同期也是大幅放大。不过正如前文所说，Uber这次血亏，不是怪自身业务，而是要怪投资眼光：其中56亿的税前亏损来自股权投资，3.59亿亏损来自股票薪酬支出。需要注意的是，Uber一季度调整后EBITDA利润率占总订单金额录得0.6%，明显优于去年同期的-1.8%，这也表明Uber自身业务表现并不算很糟糕。如果你翻看Uber的投资版图就可以发现，给其带来近60亿亏损的投资标的，大多是自己的同行——其中就包括有“东南亚Uber”之称的Grab和滴滴，以及自动驾驶初创公司Aurora。再联想到营收结构单一、只专注于网约车业务的Lyft营收增速不及Uber，或许我们已经意识到一个更严重的问题：萎缩的不止Uber和Lyft，而是整个网约车行业。收入全靠佣金、人力成本高企，网约车平台的无解难题糟糕的投资眼光和同行的不作为，给网约车老大Uber的一季度成绩单蒙上“污点”，这对整个行业来说都不是一件好事。比如上文提及的Uber两笔失败投资滴滴和Grab，日子更加不好过。根据滴滴不久前公布的2021年年报，其全年营收为1738.27亿，同比增长22.64%，但亏损额同比疯狂扩大365.06%至106.08亿，“亏损额日均增长1%”成为滴滴留给外界的最深刻印象。众所周知，和实现多元化转型的Uber相比，滴滴、Lyft营收都仍高度依赖网约车业务。不断捣鼓社区团购、货运业务的滴滴，上一财年中国出行业务营收占比还是高达92%，国际业务和其他业务全年营收仅分别为36.2亿和96.8亿元。从这几个头部平台的业务状况足以表明，网约车市场正处于绝对低潮。这种低潮因何而来？价值研究所认为，疫情当然是一个重要因素，但绝对不是唯一原因。一方面，疫情的确让网约车需求在短期内大幅减少。以国内市场为例。根据高德大数据的报告，今年3月份全国网约车订单数同比骤降19%至5.4亿单，是去年1月份以来的最低水平。与此相对应的，是网约车的重点市场、一、二线大城市居民出行率的下滑。数据显示，3月份全国100城拥堵延时指数平均值为1.51，上海、深圳两个受疫情影响严重的一线城市甚至要低于这个平均水平。跟踪全球119个国家和地区、近140家运营商出行数据的研究机构Strategy Analytics的报告称，去年上半年全球网约车市场总收益下降18%，总预订量也大幅下滑，预计整个共享出行市场最快要到2022年年底才能迎来复苏。按如今的情况来看，Strategy Analytics的报告并非危言耸听，网约车市场的颓势或许真的超出了业界的预期。另一方面，我们也不能忽视网约车行业一些由来已久的问题——特别是成本失衡和营收结构单一。在疫情的冲击下，这些问题被进一步放大，才会导致各大头部平台陷入困境。在成本端，人力支出是网约车平台心头永恒的痛。一季度财报显示，Uber单季总成本达到73.36亿美元，较去年同期的44.27亿美元激增65.7%。具体支出结构而言，营收成本录得40.26亿美元占比最高，且较去年同期翻了一倍有余，运营和支持支出、销售及营销支出也全面上升。根据Rakuten Intelligence统计的数据，过去三年间Uber和Lyft的人力支出成本提升了92%，但仍然无法满足运力需求。彭博统计的数据显示，截止去年三季度，Uber和Lyft实际司机数量比最大容量低了40%左右，这也导致纽约、洛杉矶等城市乘客等待时间明显延长。为了争夺司机资源，Uber和Lyft不得不提供更多的激励政策以及提高常规待遇，甚至主动让利。在国内，滴滴也有同样的困境。随着美团打车复活以及首汽约车、曹操出行、T3出行等老玩家不断加码，加上监管政策收紧司机和营运车辆的资格审查，平台的人力成本也是一路走高。美团打车复活首日，就重启疯狂地推策略，在北京、南京、上海等三十多个城市大肆招募司机。而美团提供的激励包也是十分诱人：7天免佣、拉新奖励、超出行业平均水平的高峰接单津贴等一应俱全。然而，由于网约车业务主要依靠抽佣盈利，在订单量因疫情而下滑的情况下，主动放弃部分佣金收入必然会对营收、利润率产生较大影响，从而形成恶性循环。更重要的是，在司机团队不断扩大之际，如何协调好平台和司机的矛盾、做好人员管理，也是一个难题。去年7月份，Uber、Lyft的网约车司机在共享汽车联盟的组织下举行大罢工，要求提高薪酬待遇、成立工会。短短数日内，罢工活动在洛杉矶、旧金山、波士顿、奥斯汀和克利夫兰等多个城市蔓延，一时间让Uber、Lyft推向舆论的对立面，遭到媒体和网友的口诛笔伐。综合上述情况，在价值研究所看来，商业模式过于单一，依赖补贴抢夺用户和司机资源，在扩大规模之后又无法协调好乘客-司机-平台之间的矛盾关系，是Uber、滴滴和Lyft所有问题的根源。事实上，Uber在上市之初就已经意识到商业模式的问题，于是才会执着于开拓外卖、货运等新业务，务求向多元化经营转型。有关补贴的弊端，Uber、滴滴过往的种种经历都足够说明问题。现在回过头来看，在发家之后没有将大量的资金拿去构建基础设施反倒是用于补贴司机和乘客，这样的两头补贴模式很容易让用户“上瘾”，一旦不再补贴，就会导致乘客或者司机流失，进而影响供需两端体验加速流失，形成又一个恶性循环。而接下，它们需要想办法解决这个终极难题——开源节流，是一个很现实的选择。海外市场多处开花，Uber、滴滴、Lyft必有一战可以肯定的是，就算几家头部平台都陷入低谷，网约车市场的争夺也不会停止。在国内市场，一级融资市场热度不减。IT桔子统计的数据显示，2021年国内网约车行业共完成9起投融资事件，涉及金额合计125.2亿元，是过去三年的最高水平。其中，曹操出行、T3出行、大众出行等头部平台都在去年先后完成最新一轮融资，T3出行的77亿元A轮融资更是近年来网约车行业最大单一融资。从用户规模和渗透率来看，虽然增速已经比不上爆发期，但仍保持平稳增长。CNNIC的统计就显示，截止去年上半年国内网约车用户规模约为3.97亿，使用率39.2%，较上一年同期增长2.3%。（图片来自前瞻产业研究院）只不过滴滴也明白，国内市场竞争激烈、线上流量红利已经枯竭，要想达到开源的目的，必须走向国际化。这就意味着，在海外市场，滴滴和Uber、Lyft之间必然还会有一场恶战。早些年，由于国内市场足够稳定且垄断优势明显，滴滴对海外市场的开发一直相当谨慎。2018年在巴西和当地网约车平台99 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