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不吃一只小虎
2018-09-09
护城河的意义
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 2006 年时,曾有记者询问 Palm 公司 CEO Ed Colligan 有关苹果手机的传闻,这位智能机老江湖自信满满的回应称,“为了做好一台手机,我们都曲折探索了很多年,搞 PC 的那帮人想进来就坐收渔利,恐怕没那么容易。” 第一次见到初代 iPhone 时,诺基亚的人也是这样想的,他们不觉得这是一台好手机,自己根本不用凑这个热闹。“连 3G 都没有,拍照又这么差。”这就是诺基亚对这款划时代产品的评价。 如果将时空转换到汽车行业,特斯拉站的就是当年苹果的位置。“你瞧瞧这装配和钣金,这中控台面板中间的缝隙。”传统汽车巨头们也曾发出过这样的感叹。显然,诺基亚当年犯下了大错。 那么,汽车行业的这帮老江湖也看走眼了吗?特斯拉是否能在另一个行业复制 iPhone 的神话?如果 Elon Musk 成功了,又意味着什么? 这只是一个关于特斯拉的局部问题,真正有趣的是其背后的“现象”。 这种现象出现时都会发生什么?我们怎么知道哪项技术是革命性的?即使提前做了判断,我们能找到下一个“牺牲者”吗?谁又会成为下一个“胜利者”? 近些年来,“Disruption”(破坏性)一词成了科技媒体口中的流行词,它指的是一种能改变某行业竞争基础的新概念。最初,无论是新事物本身,还是手握新事物的公司在现有价值体系下都是不及格的,它们甚至会被同行嘲笑。 在同行看来,这些新事物要么毫无意义,要么很容易复制,不过这是大错特错。苹果将软件注入手机,而诺基亚直到倒下也没弄明白软件的精髓。 不过,并非所有新技术或新思想都是破坏性的。 有些技术虽然触动了竞争的根基,但力道却不够,如果这一新事物还容易学习和吸收,恐怕破坏力就微不足道了。Clay Christensen 将其称为“持续性创新”,它与破坏性创新并非一个概念。 引申开来,任何新技术可能都会对价值链的某个环节产生“破坏”。iPhone
护城河的意义
不吃一只小虎
2019-02-13
$加拿大鹅(GOOS)$ 不知道财报怎么样?
不吃一只小虎
2018-10-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 310的本 有没有更高的呀
不吃一只小虎
2019-04-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 交付量应该不大,M3 毛估估 北美25000 ➕欧洲 20000➕ 中国13000➕其他墨西哥20 总共还不到6万.不知道会不会被打脸
不吃一只小虎
2019-06-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 来来来,大家来猜下交付量,北美50000➕最后一周6000辆,欧洲29000➕最后一周2000辆. 中国7000➕最后一周500辆. 感觉应该突破18年四季度的
不吃一只小虎
2018-09-11
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 野村下调评级,一直以来野村非常支持特斯拉,是不是真的有很大的问题了
不吃一只小虎
2019-01-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉多头换了一茬又一茬,不知道会不会一直这样,挺难把握的股票
不吃一只小虎
2019-09-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
刚从杭州的销售了解到,三季度中国区销量已超过二季度.还有最后一周,加油💪
不吃一只小虎
2019-05-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 4月销量怎么样?
不吃一只小虎
2019-03-11
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 出什么事情了,突然转跌
不吃一只小虎
2018-12-21
$加拿大鹅(GOOS)$ 超了140股 感觉不敢加仓了
不吃一只小虎
2018-08-13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉退了,感觉美股没啥好持仓的了,其他都很贵
不吃一只小虎
2019-06-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 会不会是这样,多头不借出空票了,所以卖空池没有票.
不吃一只小虎
2019-01-07
$加拿大鹅(GOOS)$ 买了点大鹅 孟的事件平息了,估计财报又是一波 静静的等
不吃一只小虎
2019-05-20
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 有大资金大笔买入了,可以转多了
不吃一只小虎
2018-09-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ @九格 怎么看这次起诉?
不吃一只小虎
2018-08-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 老虎对特斯拉持股要加保证金啥意思,难道老虎已有内幕?
不吃一只小虎
2021-01-05
$波音(BA)$
波音2021年发布电动飞机,股价直接上1000,融资100亿,在上1500
不吃一只小虎
2018-11-11
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 双11 越凶 证明消费降级越明显
不吃一只小虎
2020-01-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
最近老马又有点飘了,感觉危险的气息袭来
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n贝莱德基金发声:中国股票存在底部超配的价值\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-20 15:23 北京时间 <a href=https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2240605><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据上证报报道,贝莱德基金首席投资官陆文杰表示,相对全球市场而言,当前中国股票市场估值较低,未来随着更多积极因素显现,A股将会出现较大弹性。他指出,从更长期的角度来看,贝莱德基金对中国经济的恢复有信心,认为中国股票当前存在底部超配的价值。陆文杰表示,沪深300市盈率目前只有11倍左右,与美股和日本股票的市盈率相比明显偏低,低估值意味着当积极催化因素出现时,资产本身会展现出较大弹性。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2240605\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2240605","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142622401","content_text":"据上证报报道,贝莱德基金首席投资官陆文杰表示,相对全球市场而言,当前中国股票市场估值较低,未来随着更多积极因素显现,A股将会出现较大弹性。他指出,从更长期的角度来看,贝莱德基金对中国经济的恢复有信心,认为中国股票当前存在底部超配的价值。陆文杰表示,沪深300市盈率目前只有11倍左右,与美股和日本股票的市盈率相比明显偏低,低估值意味着当积极催化因素出现时,资产本身会展现出较大弹性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":202142217506840,"gmtCreate":1690371770437,"gmtModify":1690371771469,"author":{"id":"3476620393409201","authorId":"3476620393409201","name":"不吃一只小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe1ffba4e5e1d0e5e847c24f9b86b60","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476620393409201","idStr":"3476620393409201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$ </a>财报挺好的,自由现金流不错,大超预期","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$ </a>财报挺好的,自由现金流不错,大超预期","text":"$波音(BA)$ 财报挺好的,自由现金流不错,大超预期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/202142217506840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606069483,"gmtCreate":1638801792566,"gmtModify":1638801792566,"author":{"id":"3476620393409201","authorId":"3476620393409201","name":"不吃一只小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe1ffba4e5e1d0e5e847c24f9b86b60","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476620393409201","idStr":"3476620393409201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>逼空行情了,空头完蛋了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>逼空行情了,空头完蛋了","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$逼空行情了,空头完蛋了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606069483","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609642260,"gmtCreate":1638282985759,"gmtModify":1638282985759,"author":{"id":"3476620393409201","authorId":"3476620393409201","name":"不吃一只小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe1ffba4e5e1d0e5e847c24f9b86b60","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476620393409201","idStr":"3476620393409201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>感觉波音会涨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>感觉波音会涨","text":"$波音(BA)$感觉波音会涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609642260","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871003468,"gmtCreate":1636990551219,"gmtModify":1636990551219,"author":{"id":"3476620393409201","authorId":"3476620393409201","name":"不吃一只小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe1ffba4e5e1d0e5e847c24f9b86b60","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476620393409201","idStr":"3476620393409201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>那时候特斯拉快倒闭的时候觉得,汽车行业很难,真的很难","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>那时候特斯拉快倒闭的时候觉得,汽车行业很难,真的很难","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$那时候特斯拉快倒闭的时候觉得,汽车行业很难,真的很难","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871003468","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854166066,"gmtCreate":1635428602481,"gmtModify":1635428602481,"author":{"id":"3476620393409201","authorId":"3476620393409201","name":"不吃一只小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe1ffba4e5e1d0e5e847c24f9b86b60","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476620393409201","idStr":"3476620393409201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"滴滴的利润率提高在于自动驾驶的发展,但是后面自动驾驶什么时候实现很难说,谷歌的waymo都还不行","listText":"滴滴的利润率提高在于自动驾驶的发展,但是后面自动驾驶什么时候实现很难说,谷歌的waymo都还不行","text":"滴滴的利润率提高在于自动驾驶的发展,但是后面自动驾驶什么时候实现很难说,谷歌的waymo都还不行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854166066","repostId":"1168702287","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168702287","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心,不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"1055767104","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953"},"pubTimestamp":1635420810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168702287?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 19:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"滴滴,会是18年的美团吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168702287","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"今年6月,滴滴顶着\"超级独角兽\"光环登陆资本市场。\n无论是管理团队,还是资本背景,滴滴的配置都是行业内顶配,难怪有分析师喊出1000亿美元的目标价。\n然而好景不长,滴滴上市后遭遇下架风波,股价高开低走","content":"<p>今年6月,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>顶着\"超级独角兽\"光环登陆资本市场。</p>\n<p>无论是管理团队,还是资本背景,滴滴的配置都是行业内顶配,难怪有分析师喊出1000亿美元的目标价。</p>\n<p>然而好景不长,滴滴上市后遭遇下架风波,股价高开低走,不到半年时间就股价腰斩。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f931f33aec7ad33a3d465ce0d6fc6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>同样的剧情,其实在2018年也上演过,当时的主角是美团,上市时同样众星<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>,同样是上市半年后腰斩。</p>\n<p>我也有幸参与了美团打新,不过在开盘后就卖出,半年后回头看,还庆幸自己卖在了高点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3e1117b843a58568979764179b7f5d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>但是,随后的两年,庆幸变成了后悔。从19年开始,美团股价一路走高,今年年初美团一度最高摸到460港元,距离底部的40港元,足足涨了十倍。假如当时没有卖出美团,我现在也许早已实现外卖自由。</p>\n<p>时间来到2021年,这一次的滴滴,会重演美团的剧本吗?我们有机会实现出行自由吗?</p>\n<p><b>估值对比</b></p>\n<p>经过接近半年的调整,滴滴在市值上有了很大的回撤。</p>\n<p>截止10月26日收盘,滴滴股价8.41美元,市值405.63亿美元,折合人民币大概是2588亿,按照2020年的营收1417亿人民币计算,市销率PS不到2倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8869ba452694735e9f182037134d2226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:万得</p>\n<p>市值是下来了,估值算不算便宜呢?我们不妨和同行做一下对比。</p>\n<p>首先是前面提到的美团,同样是平台型互联网公司,2020年营收1147亿人民币,市值13780亿人民币,市销率是12倍。</p>\n<p>而且从万得的PS band我们可以看到,自上市以来,美团的市销率就没有低于3倍的时候,即使在2018年最低谷,市销率估值也有3倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/328a4a4a55190ba7043cb504758ce084\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:万得</p>\n<p>然后再来看同样是出行领域的Uber。Uber最新的市值是867亿美元,2020年营收111.39亿美元,市销率7.78倍。上市两年多的时间里面,Uber只有一次市销率低于2倍,就是在去年3月份股灾的时候。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/421e15068f56808bf67d9bcfef754dd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:万得</p>\n<p><b>单从数字来看,滴滴的估值几乎比所有同行都要低。但是估值低,就是便宜吗?我们继续往下看。</b></p>\n<p>滴滴2020年的收入是1417亿人民币,运营成本1258亿人民币,毛利率11.2%;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d17f23510ce9dd5b8e175727991df1b4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:财报</p>\n<p>同行Uber2020年营收111.39亿美元,收入成本51.54亿美元,毛利率46.2%;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476e2a72a5e46c48783e2a53834c871d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:财报</p>\n<p>同样是做出行业务,为什么两者的利润率会差这么多?关键就出在收入的计算方式上面。</p>\n<p>在出行市场,有两种计算收入的方式:<b>Gross Basis</b>和<b>Net Basis。</b>Gross Basis中,收入扣减乘客补贴部分,将司机收入和补贴按成本计量;Net Basis则将司机收入和补贴部分不算入营收,乘客补贴按照费用计量。</p>\n<p>假如类比电商,Gross Basis就相当于是GMV,Net Basis就相当于是Net Revenue。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3657552bc28f04bb2d6a6765f989ee54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>假如按照Uber的统计口径,同时take rate按照15%来计算,滴滴2020年国内业务的收入将从1336.45亿元,调整为283.5亿元,总收入调整为364.41亿元,目前的估值大概是7倍市销率,和Uber就很接近了。</p>\n<p><b>所以,经历了大跌的滴滴,实际估值并没有折让,只是从高估状态回归到了合理水平。</b></p>\n<p>按理说,既然前面有Uber作为参考,滴滴的承销商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>应该知道用哪种口径去做统计,那么为什么还是要刻意去做大收入呢?我们可以来看一组有趣的数据。</p>\n<p>根据虎嗅统计,滴滴上市前一共进行了23轮融资,投资方星光熠熠,基本上中外叫得上号的机构,都在里面,比如说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、阿里、高瓴、红杉、经纬、GGV等等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab16bd8ae852f7b8ef45deb9dcf43a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1789\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据这份投资清单,仅仅是计算公开的投资额,这帮机构在滴滴身上已经投了近250亿美元了,再加上时间成本,不发行一个高价,机构根本回不了本。</p>\n<p><b>做高收入,再按一个高估值发行,背后又有一帮等着套现的资本,意图是很明显了。</b></p>\n<p>可惜人算不如天算,原本想要到二级市场割韭菜,没想到最后还是烂在手里,全部变成了蟹货。</p>\n<p><b>增长对比</b></p>\n<p><b>2018年的美团,股价之所以能实现反弹,除了估值低,还有另外一个原因:快速增长。</b>美团在2018年交出了一份营业额增长92.25%,交易用户数增长29.3%的漂亮报表,股价也顺利完成反转。</p>\n<p>滴滴目前估值虽然不算便宜,但是也不能算贵,假如有高速的增长,还是值得投资的,那么滴滴未来增速有多少呢?</p>\n<p>根据滴滴的财报数据,预测到2025年,网约车的市场规模将达到8620亿元,是2020年的2330亿元的三倍。</p>\n<p>滴滴目前在网约车市场份额接近90%,优势非常稳固,假如按照这个市场规模估算,滴滴预计到2025年,收入也能翻个三倍。</p>\n<p><b>滴滴在出行领域护城河坚固,估值又合理,收入四年还可以翻三倍,那岂不是绝好的投资机会?</b></p>\n<p>于是我马上找来滴滴的财务报表,想分析一下公司的经营状况,却发现一点奇怪的地方。</p>\n<p>根据最新的一季报,滴滴收入421.63亿元,虽然同比增长超过100%,但是这是建立在去年一季度低基数的情况下。</p>\n<p>假如我们按一季度业绩线性外推,那么全年营收大概是1600亿元,和2019年相比,年复合增长率只有4%。</p>\n<p>虽然线性外推看起来不够严谨,但是这个增速和整个网约车市场的增速其实是相符的。从2018年开始,网约车市场的增速就已经放缓,18年和19年的网约车市场规模分别是2350亿元、2470亿元,同比增速从27%,下降到5%。</p>\n<p><b>一边是巨大的增长空间,另外一边是增速放缓,到底是谁错了?</b></p>\n<p>回顾滴滴的增长,最快速的是2016年-2018年,通过大量的补贴,迅速完成用户教育,在这个过程中,滴滴的成长来源主要有两个方面。</p>\n<p>1、共享出行市场的整体提升;</p>\n<p>2、用户习惯的转变,从出租车转向网约车;</p>\n<p><b>第一个因素的增量其实很小。</b>同样根据滴滴提供的财报数据,中国网约车+出租车的市场规模在2016年是5380亿元,到了2019年是6460亿元,年复合增长6%。</p>\n<p>也就是打车这个市场,经过这么多年的发展,其实已经进入一个平缓增长的阶段,过去更多是靠第二个因素 —— 用户习惯的改变,来推动网约车市场的发展。</p>\n<p><b>然而这第二个因素,从2018年开始也开始放缓。</b>网约车市场规模2016年-2018年的CAGR是36.56%,但是到了2019年增速是5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6418dffc760da9894627ca7c463ad87\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>显然,过去驱动滴滴增长的两个动量,未来都很难再继续高速增长了,那么滴滴的巨大市场空间,从何而来呢?</b></p>\n<p>我能想到的几个点:</p>\n<p>1、消费升级,人们从公交改成打车,渗透率上升;</p>\n<p>2、高线城市向低线城市渗透;</p>\n<p>3、海外渗透;</p>\n<p>相信乘坐公共交通上班的朋友应该都知道,上下班高峰期,地铁站、公交站一片黑压压的人头,这些其实都是网约车的潜在用户。</p>\n<p>但是制约这些用户转化,有一个重要因素 ——<b>人均收入。</b></p>\n<p>其实一年8620亿元的网约车规模,对于4.93亿用户来说,平摊到每个人身上,也就是一年1748元,约等于一个月145元,<b>大概就是两个盲盒的价钱。</b></p>\n<p>但是现代社会,房价高,物价高,大家真的舍得拿出这点钱,去稍微改善下自己上下班的舒适感吗?我也搞不懂。</p>\n<p>这里我选择了一个先行指标 ——<b>新增网约车司机数量。</b></p>\n<p>网约车市场需求怎么样,网约车司机是春江鸭。当市场供不应求的时候,司机收入提升,很快就有更多的司机加入;当供求平衡时,司机的收入回落到社会平均水平,就会遏制了新司机加入的冲动。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴提供的数据,进入2021年,网约车司机的总数已经处于一个接近饱和的状态。我们也走访了一些深圳的司机,大部分司机的意思是,他们的收入从2019年开始就已经到顶了,打车的需求就这么多,僧多粥少,收入现在也就足够糊口而已。</p>\n<p>诚然,上面的三个点:<b>用户渗透率提升、向低线城市扩张</b>和<b>海外扩张,</b>都是未来网约车增长的机会,但是很难在4-5年内有一个很大的爆发。</p>\n<p><b>商业模式</b></p>\n<p>回到滴滴本身,网约车这门生意目前来看,就是一门薄利的生意,滴滴赚的每一分钱,都要分大部分给司机和补贴乘客。</p>\n<p>从本质上看,这就是一家<b>提供出行服务的供应商,</b>滴滴提供的还是其他服务商提供的,是无差异的。</p>\n<p>这一点和快递行业、航运行业非常类似,当行业供求平衡的时候,这些行业的公司,利润率会非常低。</p>\n<p>按理说,既定的剧本是,滴滴在烧死了所有竞争对手后,通过垄断地位,对服务进行提价,从而赚取利润,但是现实很骨感,当滴滴一路披荆斩棘,成为网约车的C位哥哥时。</p>\n<p><i>反垄断来了。</i></p>\n<p>未来滴滴能不能借助垄断地位提价,已经有很大的不确定性了,现在从财务上看,滴滴就是刚好将收入剔除掉运营成本,全都分给了司机和乘客。</p>\n<p><b>这哪里是垄断,完全就是拿着资本家的钱做慈善生意。</b></p>\n<p>所以,这也是滴滴护城河的关键,当你放弃赚钱的时候,其他人也就打不进来了。过去几年各大专车公司多次尝试进攻滴滴,可是最后都无功而返,一方面是因为实在太烧钱,另外一方面就是龙头比你还能烧钱。</p>\n<p>未来,滴滴要赚钱,也许只有玩羊毛出在猪身上那一套,搞搞放贷,做下社区团购,再出个海什么的。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>文章的结尾我们再来看一组数字。</p>\n<p>截止2021年一季度,滴滴的年活跃司机人数是1500万人,按照2020年2146亿GTV计算,按照85%的分成比例,平均每个人分到的钱,其实只有1.21万元;</p>\n<p>我们走访了不少深圳的滴滴司机,他们跑得最多的,每个月到手也就8-9千,这还是干满30天,一个月不休息的情况下;</p>\n<p>但是他们为什么还愿意做呢?那肯定是因为别的工作,收入更低。</p>\n<p><b>这个也许才是真实视角下,中国人的平均收入。</b></p>\n<p>这几千万开滴滴送外卖的师傅小哥,也许自己出门也不舍得打车,不舍得叫外卖。</p>\n<p>所以,上面的模型里面,5亿人每人每月支出145元的网约车费用,短期内实现机会有多大呢?值得商榷。</p>\n<p>回到滴滴这家公司上面,也许我们不应该太苛刻,从创立到现在,你说他赚了多少钱?其实还真没有,更多的是借助资本的力量,去给更多的人提供便利,也为一部分人提供了生计。</p>\n<p>从这个角度看,滴滴的估值,也许还是合理的。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>滴滴,会是18年的美团吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n滴滴,会是18年的美团吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055767104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-28 19:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>今年6月,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>顶着\"超级独角兽\"光环登陆资本市场。</p>\n<p>无论是管理团队,还是资本背景,滴滴的配置都是行业内顶配,难怪有分析师喊出1000亿美元的目标价。</p>\n<p>然而好景不长,滴滴上市后遭遇下架风波,股价高开低走,不到半年时间就股价腰斩。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f931f33aec7ad33a3d465ce0d6fc6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>同样的剧情,其实在2018年也上演过,当时的主角是美团,上市时同样众星<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>,同样是上市半年后腰斩。</p>\n<p>我也有幸参与了美团打新,不过在开盘后就卖出,半年后回头看,还庆幸自己卖在了高点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3e1117b843a58568979764179b7f5d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>但是,随后的两年,庆幸变成了后悔。从19年开始,美团股价一路走高,今年年初美团一度最高摸到460港元,距离底部的40港元,足足涨了十倍。假如当时没有卖出美团,我现在也许早已实现外卖自由。</p>\n<p>时间来到2021年,这一次的滴滴,会重演美团的剧本吗?我们有机会实现出行自由吗?</p>\n<p><b>估值对比</b></p>\n<p>经过接近半年的调整,滴滴在市值上有了很大的回撤。</p>\n<p>截止10月26日收盘,滴滴股价8.41美元,市值405.63亿美元,折合人民币大概是2588亿,按照2020年的营收1417亿人民币计算,市销率PS不到2倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8869ba452694735e9f182037134d2226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:万得</p>\n<p>市值是下来了,估值算不算便宜呢?我们不妨和同行做一下对比。</p>\n<p>首先是前面提到的美团,同样是平台型互联网公司,2020年营收1147亿人民币,市值13780亿人民币,市销率是12倍。</p>\n<p>而且从万得的PS band我们可以看到,自上市以来,美团的市销率就没有低于3倍的时候,即使在2018年最低谷,市销率估值也有3倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/328a4a4a55190ba7043cb504758ce084\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:万得</p>\n<p>然后再来看同样是出行领域的Uber。Uber最新的市值是867亿美元,2020年营收111.39亿美元,市销率7.78倍。上市两年多的时间里面,Uber只有一次市销率低于2倍,就是在去年3月份股灾的时候。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/421e15068f56808bf67d9bcfef754dd5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:万得</p>\n<p><b>单从数字来看,滴滴的估值几乎比所有同行都要低。但是估值低,就是便宜吗?我们继续往下看。</b></p>\n<p>滴滴2020年的收入是1417亿人民币,运营成本1258亿人民币,毛利率11.2%;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d17f23510ce9dd5b8e175727991df1b4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:财报</p>\n<p>同行Uber2020年营收111.39亿美元,收入成本51.54亿美元,毛利率46.2%;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476e2a72a5e46c48783e2a53834c871d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源:财报</p>\n<p>同样是做出行业务,为什么两者的利润率会差这么多?关键就出在收入的计算方式上面。</p>\n<p>在出行市场,有两种计算收入的方式:<b>Gross Basis</b>和<b>Net Basis。</b>Gross Basis中,收入扣减乘客补贴部分,将司机收入和补贴按成本计量;Net Basis则将司机收入和补贴部分不算入营收,乘客补贴按照费用计量。</p>\n<p>假如类比电商,Gross Basis就相当于是GMV,Net Basis就相当于是Net Revenue。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3657552bc28f04bb2d6a6765f989ee54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>假如按照Uber的统计口径,同时take rate按照15%来计算,滴滴2020年国内业务的收入将从1336.45亿元,调整为283.5亿元,总收入调整为364.41亿元,目前的估值大概是7倍市销率,和Uber就很接近了。</p>\n<p><b>所以,经历了大跌的滴滴,实际估值并没有折让,只是从高估状态回归到了合理水平。</b></p>\n<p>按理说,既然前面有Uber作为参考,滴滴的承销商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>应该知道用哪种口径去做统计,那么为什么还是要刻意去做大收入呢?我们可以来看一组有趣的数据。</p>\n<p>根据虎嗅统计,滴滴上市前一共进行了23轮融资,投资方星光熠熠,基本上中外叫得上号的机构,都在里面,比如说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、阿里、高瓴、红杉、经纬、GGV等等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab16bd8ae852f7b8ef45deb9dcf43a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1789\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据这份投资清单,仅仅是计算公开的投资额,这帮机构在滴滴身上已经投了近250亿美元了,再加上时间成本,不发行一个高价,机构根本回不了本。</p>\n<p><b>做高收入,再按一个高估值发行,背后又有一帮等着套现的资本,意图是很明显了。</b></p>\n<p>可惜人算不如天算,原本想要到二级市场割韭菜,没想到最后还是烂在手里,全部变成了蟹货。</p>\n<p><b>增长对比</b></p>\n<p><b>2018年的美团,股价之所以能实现反弹,除了估值低,还有另外一个原因:快速增长。</b>美团在2018年交出了一份营业额增长92.25%,交易用户数增长29.3%的漂亮报表,股价也顺利完成反转。</p>\n<p>滴滴目前估值虽然不算便宜,但是也不能算贵,假如有高速的增长,还是值得投资的,那么滴滴未来增速有多少呢?</p>\n<p>根据滴滴的财报数据,预测到2025年,网约车的市场规模将达到8620亿元,是2020年的2330亿元的三倍。</p>\n<p>滴滴目前在网约车市场份额接近90%,优势非常稳固,假如按照这个市场规模估算,滴滴预计到2025年,收入也能翻个三倍。</p>\n<p><b>滴滴在出行领域护城河坚固,估值又合理,收入四年还可以翻三倍,那岂不是绝好的投资机会?</b></p>\n<p>于是我马上找来滴滴的财务报表,想分析一下公司的经营状况,却发现一点奇怪的地方。</p>\n<p>根据最新的一季报,滴滴收入421.63亿元,虽然同比增长超过100%,但是这是建立在去年一季度低基数的情况下。</p>\n<p>假如我们按一季度业绩线性外推,那么全年营收大概是1600亿元,和2019年相比,年复合增长率只有4%。</p>\n<p>虽然线性外推看起来不够严谨,但是这个增速和整个网约车市场的增速其实是相符的。从2018年开始,网约车市场的增速就已经放缓,18年和19年的网约车市场规模分别是2350亿元、2470亿元,同比增速从27%,下降到5%。</p>\n<p><b>一边是巨大的增长空间,另外一边是增速放缓,到底是谁错了?</b></p>\n<p>回顾滴滴的增长,最快速的是2016年-2018年,通过大量的补贴,迅速完成用户教育,在这个过程中,滴滴的成长来源主要有两个方面。</p>\n<p>1、共享出行市场的整体提升;</p>\n<p>2、用户习惯的转变,从出租车转向网约车;</p>\n<p><b>第一个因素的增量其实很小。</b>同样根据滴滴提供的财报数据,中国网约车+出租车的市场规模在2016年是5380亿元,到了2019年是6460亿元,年复合增长6%。</p>\n<p>也就是打车这个市场,经过这么多年的发展,其实已经进入一个平缓增长的阶段,过去更多是靠第二个因素 —— 用户习惯的改变,来推动网约车市场的发展。</p>\n<p><b>然而这第二个因素,从2018年开始也开始放缓。</b>网约车市场规模2016年-2018年的CAGR是36.56%,但是到了2019年增速是5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6418dffc760da9894627ca7c463ad87\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>显然,过去驱动滴滴增长的两个动量,未来都很难再继续高速增长了,那么滴滴的巨大市场空间,从何而来呢?</b></p>\n<p>我能想到的几个点:</p>\n<p>1、消费升级,人们从公交改成打车,渗透率上升;</p>\n<p>2、高线城市向低线城市渗透;</p>\n<p>3、海外渗透;</p>\n<p>相信乘坐公共交通上班的朋友应该都知道,上下班高峰期,地铁站、公交站一片黑压压的人头,这些其实都是网约车的潜在用户。</p>\n<p>但是制约这些用户转化,有一个重要因素 ——<b>人均收入。</b></p>\n<p>其实一年8620亿元的网约车规模,对于4.93亿用户来说,平摊到每个人身上,也就是一年1748元,约等于一个月145元,<b>大概就是两个盲盒的价钱。</b></p>\n<p>但是现代社会,房价高,物价高,大家真的舍得拿出这点钱,去稍微改善下自己上下班的舒适感吗?我也搞不懂。</p>\n<p>这里我选择了一个先行指标 ——<b>新增网约车司机数量。</b></p>\n<p>网约车市场需求怎么样,网约车司机是春江鸭。当市场供不应求的时候,司机收入提升,很快就有更多的司机加入;当供求平衡时,司机的收入回落到社会平均水平,就会遏制了新司机加入的冲动。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴提供的数据,进入2021年,网约车司机的总数已经处于一个接近饱和的状态。我们也走访了一些深圳的司机,大部分司机的意思是,他们的收入从2019年开始就已经到顶了,打车的需求就这么多,僧多粥少,收入现在也就足够糊口而已。</p>\n<p>诚然,上面的三个点:<b>用户渗透率提升、向低线城市扩张</b>和<b>海外扩张,</b>都是未来网约车增长的机会,但是很难在4-5年内有一个很大的爆发。</p>\n<p><b>商业模式</b></p>\n<p>回到滴滴本身,网约车这门生意目前来看,就是一门薄利的生意,滴滴赚的每一分钱,都要分大部分给司机和补贴乘客。</p>\n<p>从本质上看,这就是一家<b>提供出行服务的供应商,</b>滴滴提供的还是其他服务商提供的,是无差异的。</p>\n<p>这一点和快递行业、航运行业非常类似,当行业供求平衡的时候,这些行业的公司,利润率会非常低。</p>\n<p>按理说,既定的剧本是,滴滴在烧死了所有竞争对手后,通过垄断地位,对服务进行提价,从而赚取利润,但是现实很骨感,当滴滴一路披荆斩棘,成为网约车的C位哥哥时。</p>\n<p><i>反垄断来了。</i></p>\n<p>未来滴滴能不能借助垄断地位提价,已经有很大的不确定性了,现在从财务上看,滴滴就是刚好将收入剔除掉运营成本,全都分给了司机和乘客。</p>\n<p><b>这哪里是垄断,完全就是拿着资本家的钱做慈善生意。</b></p>\n<p>所以,这也是滴滴护城河的关键,当你放弃赚钱的时候,其他人也就打不进来了。过去几年各大专车公司多次尝试进攻滴滴,可是最后都无功而返,一方面是因为实在太烧钱,另外一方面就是龙头比你还能烧钱。</p>\n<p>未来,滴滴要赚钱,也许只有玩羊毛出在猪身上那一套,搞搞放贷,做下社区团购,再出个海什么的。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>文章的结尾我们再来看一组数字。</p>\n<p>截止2021年一季度,滴滴的年活跃司机人数是1500万人,按照2020年2146亿GTV计算,按照85%的分成比例,平均每个人分到的钱,其实只有1.21万元;</p>\n<p>我们走访了不少深圳的滴滴司机,他们跑得最多的,每个月到手也就8-9千,这还是干满30天,一个月不休息的情况下;</p>\n<p>但是他们为什么还愿意做呢?那肯定是因为别的工作,收入更低。</p>\n<p><b>这个也许才是真实视角下,中国人的平均收入。</b></p>\n<p>这几千万开滴滴送外卖的师傅小哥,也许自己出门也不舍得打车,不舍得叫外卖。</p>\n<p>所以,上面的模型里面,5亿人每人每月支出145元的网约车费用,短期内实现机会有多大呢?值得商榷。</p>\n<p>回到滴滴这家公司上面,也许我们不应该太苛刻,从创立到现在,你说他赚了多少钱?其实还真没有,更多的是借助资本的力量,去给更多的人提供便利,也为一部分人提供了生计。</p>\n<p>从这个角度看,滴滴的估值,也许还是合理的。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ea7ede672eda39f3803f5271d88222","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168702287","content_text":"今年6月,滴滴顶着\"超级独角兽\"光环登陆资本市场。\n无论是管理团队,还是资本背景,滴滴的配置都是行业内顶配,难怪有分析师喊出1000亿美元的目标价。\n然而好景不长,滴滴上市后遭遇下架风波,股价高开低走,不到半年时间就股价腰斩。\n\n同样的剧情,其实在2018年也上演过,当时的主角是美团,上市时同样众星云集,同样是上市半年后腰斩。\n我也有幸参与了美团打新,不过在开盘后就卖出,半年后回头看,还庆幸自己卖在了高点。\n\n但是,随后的两年,庆幸变成了后悔。从19年开始,美团股价一路走高,今年年初美团一度最高摸到460港元,距离底部的40港元,足足涨了十倍。假如当时没有卖出美团,我现在也许早已实现外卖自由。\n时间来到2021年,这一次的滴滴,会重演美团的剧本吗?我们有机会实现出行自由吗?\n估值对比\n经过接近半年的调整,滴滴在市值上有了很大的回撤。\n截止10月26日收盘,滴滴股价8.41美元,市值405.63亿美元,折合人民币大概是2588亿,按照2020年的营收1417亿人民币计算,市销率PS不到2倍。\n\n图片来源:万得\n市值是下来了,估值算不算便宜呢?我们不妨和同行做一下对比。\n首先是前面提到的美团,同样是平台型互联网公司,2020年营收1147亿人民币,市值13780亿人民币,市销率是12倍。\n而且从万得的PS band我们可以看到,自上市以来,美团的市销率就没有低于3倍的时候,即使在2018年最低谷,市销率估值也有3倍。\n\n图片来源:万得\n然后再来看同样是出行领域的Uber。Uber最新的市值是867亿美元,2020年营收111.39亿美元,市销率7.78倍。上市两年多的时间里面,Uber只有一次市销率低于2倍,就是在去年3月份股灾的时候。\n\n图片来源:万得\n单从数字来看,滴滴的估值几乎比所有同行都要低。但是估值低,就是便宜吗?我们继续往下看。\n滴滴2020年的收入是1417亿人民币,运营成本1258亿人民币,毛利率11.2%;\n\n图片来源:财报\n同行Uber2020年营收111.39亿美元,收入成本51.54亿美元,毛利率46.2%;\n\n图片来源:财报\n同样是做出行业务,为什么两者的利润率会差这么多?关键就出在收入的计算方式上面。\n在出行市场,有两种计算收入的方式:Gross Basis和Net Basis。Gross Basis中,收入扣减乘客补贴部分,将司机收入和补贴按成本计量;Net Basis则将司机收入和补贴部分不算入营收,乘客补贴按照费用计量。\n假如类比电商,Gross Basis就相当于是GMV,Net Basis就相当于是Net Revenue。\n\n假如按照Uber的统计口径,同时take rate按照15%来计算,滴滴2020年国内业务的收入将从1336.45亿元,调整为283.5亿元,总收入调整为364.41亿元,目前的估值大概是7倍市销率,和Uber就很接近了。\n所以,经历了大跌的滴滴,实际估值并没有折让,只是从高估状态回归到了合理水平。\n按理说,既然前面有Uber作为参考,滴滴的承销商高盛、摩根士丹利应该知道用哪种口径去做统计,那么为什么还是要刻意去做大收入呢?我们可以来看一组有趣的数据。\n根据虎嗅统计,滴滴上市前一共进行了23轮融资,投资方星光熠熠,基本上中外叫得上号的机构,都在里面,比如说腾讯、阿里、高瓴、红杉、经纬、GGV等等。\n\n根据这份投资清单,仅仅是计算公开的投资额,这帮机构在滴滴身上已经投了近250亿美元了,再加上时间成本,不发行一个高价,机构根本回不了本。\n做高收入,再按一个高估值发行,背后又有一帮等着套现的资本,意图是很明显了。\n可惜人算不如天算,原本想要到二级市场割韭菜,没想到最后还是烂在手里,全部变成了蟹货。\n增长对比\n2018年的美团,股价之所以能实现反弹,除了估值低,还有另外一个原因:快速增长。美团在2018年交出了一份营业额增长92.25%,交易用户数增长29.3%的漂亮报表,股价也顺利完成反转。\n滴滴目前估值虽然不算便宜,但是也不能算贵,假如有高速的增长,还是值得投资的,那么滴滴未来增速有多少呢?\n根据滴滴的财报数据,预测到2025年,网约车的市场规模将达到8620亿元,是2020年的2330亿元的三倍。\n滴滴目前在网约车市场份额接近90%,优势非常稳固,假如按照这个市场规模估算,滴滴预计到2025年,收入也能翻个三倍。\n滴滴在出行领域护城河坚固,估值又合理,收入四年还可以翻三倍,那岂不是绝好的投资机会?\n于是我马上找来滴滴的财务报表,想分析一下公司的经营状况,却发现一点奇怪的地方。\n根据最新的一季报,滴滴收入421.63亿元,虽然同比增长超过100%,但是这是建立在去年一季度低基数的情况下。\n假如我们按一季度业绩线性外推,那么全年营收大概是1600亿元,和2019年相比,年复合增长率只有4%。\n虽然线性外推看起来不够严谨,但是这个增速和整个网约车市场的增速其实是相符的。从2018年开始,网约车市场的增速就已经放缓,18年和19年的网约车市场规模分别是2350亿元、2470亿元,同比增速从27%,下降到5%。\n一边是巨大的增长空间,另外一边是增速放缓,到底是谁错了?\n回顾滴滴的增长,最快速的是2016年-2018年,通过大量的补贴,迅速完成用户教育,在这个过程中,滴滴的成长来源主要有两个方面。\n1、共享出行市场的整体提升;\n2、用户习惯的转变,从出租车转向网约车;\n第一个因素的增量其实很小。同样根据滴滴提供的财报数据,中国网约车+出租车的市场规模在2016年是5380亿元,到了2019年是6460亿元,年复合增长6%。\n也就是打车这个市场,经过这么多年的发展,其实已经进入一个平缓增长的阶段,过去更多是靠第二个因素 —— 用户习惯的改变,来推动网约车市场的发展。\n然而这第二个因素,从2018年开始也开始放缓。网约车市场规模2016年-2018年的CAGR是36.56%,但是到了2019年增速是5%。\n\n显然,过去驱动滴滴增长的两个动量,未来都很难再继续高速增长了,那么滴滴的巨大市场空间,从何而来呢?\n我能想到的几个点:\n1、消费升级,人们从公交改成打车,渗透率上升;\n2、高线城市向低线城市渗透;\n3、海外渗透;\n相信乘坐公共交通上班的朋友应该都知道,上下班高峰期,地铁站、公交站一片黑压压的人头,这些其实都是网约车的潜在用户。\n但是制约这些用户转化,有一个重要因素 ——人均收入。\n其实一年8620亿元的网约车规模,对于4.93亿用户来说,平摊到每个人身上,也就是一年1748元,约等于一个月145元,大概就是两个盲盒的价钱。\n但是现代社会,房价高,物价高,大家真的舍得拿出这点钱,去稍微改善下自己上下班的舒适感吗?我也搞不懂。\n这里我选择了一个先行指标 ——新增网约车司机数量。\n网约车市场需求怎么样,网约车司机是春江鸭。当市场供不应求的时候,司机收入提升,很快就有更多的司机加入;当供求平衡时,司机的收入回落到社会平均水平,就会遏制了新司机加入的冲动。\n根据滴滴提供的数据,进入2021年,网约车司机的总数已经处于一个接近饱和的状态。我们也走访了一些深圳的司机,大部分司机的意思是,他们的收入从2019年开始就已经到顶了,打车的需求就这么多,僧多粥少,收入现在也就足够糊口而已。\n诚然,上面的三个点:用户渗透率提升、向低线城市扩张和海外扩张,都是未来网约车增长的机会,但是很难在4-5年内有一个很大的爆发。\n商业模式\n回到滴滴本身,网约车这门生意目前来看,就是一门薄利的生意,滴滴赚的每一分钱,都要分大部分给司机和补贴乘客。\n从本质上看,这就是一家提供出行服务的供应商,滴滴提供的还是其他服务商提供的,是无差异的。\n这一点和快递行业、航运行业非常类似,当行业供求平衡的时候,这些行业的公司,利润率会非常低。\n按理说,既定的剧本是,滴滴在烧死了所有竞争对手后,通过垄断地位,对服务进行提价,从而赚取利润,但是现实很骨感,当滴滴一路披荆斩棘,成为网约车的C位哥哥时。\n反垄断来了。\n未来滴滴能不能借助垄断地位提价,已经有很大的不确定性了,现在从财务上看,滴滴就是刚好将收入剔除掉运营成本,全都分给了司机和乘客。\n这哪里是垄断,完全就是拿着资本家的钱做慈善生意。\n所以,这也是滴滴护城河的关键,当你放弃赚钱的时候,其他人也就打不进来了。过去几年各大专车公司多次尝试进攻滴滴,可是最后都无功而返,一方面是因为实在太烧钱,另外一方面就是龙头比你还能烧钱。\n未来,滴滴要赚钱,也许只有玩羊毛出在猪身上那一套,搞搞放贷,做下社区团购,再出个海什么的。\n结语\n文章的结尾我们再来看一组数字。\n截止2021年一季度,滴滴的年活跃司机人数是1500万人,按照2020年2146亿GTV计算,按照85%的分成比例,平均每个人分到的钱,其实只有1.21万元;\n我们走访了不少深圳的滴滴司机,他们跑得最多的,每个月到手也就8-9千,这还是干满30天,一个月不休息的情况下;\n但是他们为什么还愿意做呢?那肯定是因为别的工作,收入更低。\n这个也许才是真实视角下,中国人的平均收入。\n这几千万开滴滴送外卖的师傅小哥,也许自己出门也不舍得打车,不舍得叫外卖。\n所以,上面的模型里面,5亿人每人每月支出145元的网约车费用,短期内实现机会有多大呢?值得商榷。\n回到滴滴这家公司上面,也许我们不应该太苛刻,从创立到现在,你说他赚了多少钱?其实还真没有,更多的是借助资本的力量,去给更多的人提供便利,也为一部分人提供了生计。\n从这个角度看,滴滴的估值,也许还是合理的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831389986,"gmtCreate":1629288544345,"gmtModify":1629288544345,"author":{"id":"3476620393409201","authorId":"3476620393409201","name":"不吃一只小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe1ffba4e5e1d0e5e847c24f9b86b60","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476620393409201","idStr":"3476620393409201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个利好太明显了","listText":"这个利好太明显了","text":"这个利好太明显了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831389986","repostId":"1135021096","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347292889,"gmtCreate":1618495921541,"gmtModify":1618495921541,"author":{"id":"3476620393409201","authorId":"3476620393409201","name":"不吃一只小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe1ffba4e5e1d0e5e847c24f9b86b60","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476620393409201","idStr":"3476620393409201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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